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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 7:13 am
by steex
WPvsMW wrote:
We disagree as to how USDOT may treat a future 5th Freedom request. Neither you nor I are USDOT, and the time is not yet 2020.


Fair enough. Apologies if I was making unfounded assumptions about your thought process.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 7:22 am
by filipinoavgeek
So I guess the end is near for DL both MNL and SIN. Wonder why'd they'd stuck with these two places in particular when destinations like BKK and HKG went away a long time ago.

As someone who's been lurking A.net for years but only created an account today, could someone help explain how and why MNL (and Southeast Asia as a whole except for SIN) are considered as low-yielding routes in spite of decent load factors? Anecdotally, a few years back when DL still had 747s and served both NGO and NRT from MNL, more often than not the flights were full. Plus PR have been serving North America non-stop for years and despite recent struggles seem to be doing rather fine at it, meanwhile airlines like MH and TG already quit directly serving North America. Is PR doing something right and the others wrong, or does PR have different dynamics compared to the others?

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 7:33 am
by c933103
WPvsMW wrote:
That's a slot problem, true, but not a 5th Freedom problem, and slots at HND are increasing.
"Haneda's slots (total, not slot pairs) will increase by 39,000 per annum, from 447,000 to 486,000. The additional slots will all be for international flights. There are an existing 90,000 available slots for international services (at daytime and night-time hours), so international will have 129,000 slots. Details of the allocation (day/night, airline, etc.) have yet to be announced, but the additional gate space is scheduled to be available from Mar-2020."
https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... ows-401552

Without a JP partner, I think DL will try to revive 5th freedom rights from HND as soon as it can get slots... probably post-2020 Olympics.

That's not what HND is for and there are already less slot than previously expected to serve other international destinations because the US get more slots than previously planned.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:32 am
by csgnyc
Manila (and most of SE Asia except SIN) is just not a business center, and therefore cannot attract the premium traffic that TYO, ICN, HKG, and SIN can. By Airliners.net legend, most of the ex-MNL traffic is Filipino VFR.

filipinoavgeek wrote:
So I guess the end is near for DL both MNL and SIN. Wonder why'd they'd stuck with these two places in particular when destinations like BKK and HKG went away a long time ago.

As someone who's been lurking A.net for years but only created an account today, could someone help explain how and why MNL (and Southeast Asia as a whole except for SIN) are considered as low-yielding routes in spite of decent load factors? Anecdotally, a few years back when DL still had 747s and served both NGO and NRT from MNL, more often than not the flights were full. Plus PR have been serving North America non-stop for years and despite recent struggles seem to be doing rather fine at it, meanwhile airlines like MH and TG already quit directly serving North America. Is PR doing something right and the others wrong, or does PR have different dynamics compared to the others?

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:32 am
by slowrambler
TigerFlyer wrote:
Why do you predict difficulty and long waits in making I-I connections at HND? The terminal is well laid out, minimal walking, and plenty of service. For example, in the PM hours that would align with US-HND service, on HND-PEK JAL and ANA operate, respectively 5:15pm and 5:25pm departures, offering excellent connectivity. Its telling that Haneda has been renamed "Haneda International Airport." AA, UA and HA all claim HND connectivity as benefits. Do you doubt them?


I "predict" because I have actually seen the HND departure board. International flights are not banked and there are just many fewer destinations than served by NRT. If you happen to want to connect in Haneda to a destination with relatively frequent flights, fine, but if you want to connect to Manila be prepared for a long wait, and if you want to go to Chengdu or Xi'an, forget it (no service). The AA, UA, and HA applications all claim HND connectivity to Japan, not internationally, as a benefit.

I'm not sure where you get the idea that it was renamed. HND has always officially been called "Tokyo International Airport".

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:35 am
by notconcerned
filipinoavgeek wrote:
So I guess the end is near for DL both MNL and SIN. Wonder why'd they'd stuck with these two places in particular when destinations like BKK and HKG went away a long time ago.

As someone who's been lurking A.net for years but only created an account today, could someone help explain how and why MNL (and Southeast Asia as a whole except for SIN) are considered as low-yielding routes in spite of decent load factors? Anecdotally, a few years back when DL still had 747s and served both NGO and NRT from MNL, more often than not the flights were full. Plus PR have been serving North America non-stop for years and despite recent struggles seem to be doing rather fine at it, meanwhile airlines like MH and TG already quit directly serving North America. Is PR doing something right and the others wrong, or does PR have different dynamics compared to the others?


As noted above, MNL doesn't generate enough business traffic and it's low yielding due to mostly VFR and OFW traffic. MNL is also a good 1,000mi closer to the US as compared to BKK/KUL which makes non-stop a bit less costly.

But back to topic, I agree that it's the end of DL MNL and SIN, even if they get slots somehow, I just don't see DL funneling passengers through HND to MNL/SIN. If DL really wanted to serve those cities, wouldn't it be easier to use a A350 to fly SEA-MNL/SIN or leverage the DL/KE JV.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:45 am
by LurveBus
filipinoavgeek wrote:
So I guess the end is near for DL both MNL and SIN. Wonder why'd they'd stuck with these two places in particular when destinations like BKK and HKG went away a long time ago.

As someone who's been lurking A.net for years but only created an account today, could someone help explain how and why MNL (and Southeast Asia as a whole except for SIN) are considered as low-yielding routes in spite of decent load factors? Anecdotally, a few years back when DL still had 747s and served both NGO and NRT from MNL, more often than not the flights were full. Plus PR have been serving North America non-stop for years and despite recent struggles seem to be doing rather fine at it, meanwhile airlines like MH and TG already quit directly serving North America. Is PR doing something right and the others wrong, or does PR have different dynamics compared to the others?


Yields between MNL and Japan have always been historically high. The flight survives on Tokyo-MNL o/d.

Once upon a time, NW, then DL, was the largest player in the Japan-Philippines market. Now there’s a PR/NH JV, JAL, and several LCCs. Kinda put pressure on the MNL service.

As for why PR pulls it off, they have a different cost structure. The slim margins for others are important to them.

Anyway, I’m sure that in a fantasy world where DL gets the slots to move it’s NRT 5ths to HND, the MNL/SIN flights would continue. But as DL removes even more spokes from NRT and moves it to HND, it isn’t hard to see that the flights may not last.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:37 am
by TigerFlyer
steex wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
IIRC, USDOT has never denied a US carrier beyond rights if the B and C authorities agree to it. A - B - C (DTW - HND - SIN) will have a single flight number, even if the equipment changes at B, as it now does on DL 166 /167.


You're going back and forth between rights and slots. The competitive awards at HND are for slots, and the USDOT is theoretically maximizing US economic benefit in its award of slots at HND. Even if there are more slots available in the future, USDOT will never see HND-SIN on DL as a greater benefit to US interests than any proposed HND-USA route being applied for simultaneously. Even if DTW-HND-SIN has a single flight number, the full routing would requite two HND slot pairs, not one.


As a practical matter, there is no distinction between "slots" and operating "rights" at HND. The Government of Japan controls HND slots, and allocates them on the basis of negotiated bilateral agreements with each country at HND. There is zero chance that DOT is going to allocate any of the 12 HND slots at issue to U.S. carriers for 5th freedom service. If you read the DOT's decision in the 2007 China Route Case, NWA was criticized for operating some of its U.S.-China frequencies via Japan, which DOT used to justify an award to UA, even though UA was dominant. For limited-entry markets, 5th freedom rights are clearly seen as producing less value for U.S. travelers.

DL's 5th freedom NRT hub is already dismantled, with just the two remaining SIN and MNL "tag" flights. Not a hub. If Delta maintains those points on DL metal, they will be flown via ICN. ICN is now DL's Asia's Asia hub; the 5th freedom flights on ICN-SIN and ICN-MNL would be backed by DL's full network of U.S.-ICN flights as well as KE's.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:56 pm
by WPvsMW
Since none of us are USDOT or JPMLIT, or live today in 2020, we are speculating, a venerable a.nut tradition.

However, there is a difference between slots and ASA bilateral route authorities. RA's don't specify arrival and departure times. Slots do.
Open Skies prevails over RAs, but not over slots.

I think HND/SIN would remain a goal for DL. I have flown NRT/SIN on DL twice a year for over a decade. It is always full (esp. since the downgauge to B763), with standbys declined, even at the ridiculously inconvenient arrv/dpt times in SIN. I would say VFR is minor ... it's mostly JP tourists in the back, and a mix of business and wealth (facially and apparel, SG and JP) in the front. DL's strongest FF base in Asia is probably JP, and DL will try to preserve as much of that in TYO as possible.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:38 pm
by mpdpilot
steex wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
That's a slot problem, true, but not a 5th Freedom problem, and slots at HND are increasing.
"Haneda's slots (total, not slot pairs) will increase by 39,000 per annum, from 447,000 to 486,000. The additional slots will all be for international flights. There are an existing 90,000 available slots for international services (at daytime and night-time hours), so international will have 129,000 slots. Details of the allocation (day/night, airline, etc.) have yet to be announced, but the additional gate space is scheduled to be available from Mar-2020."
https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... ows-401552

Without a JP partner, I think DL will try to revive 5th freedom rights from HND as soon as it can get slots... probably post-2020 Olympics.


But how would they get slots for fifth freedom? US DOT is never going to choose a non-US destination for a slot award it controls if there is ANY other application, and neither Japan nor Singapore is going to provide a slot to a carrier from another country. At a minimum, this would require unfettered slot flexibility, and I think even then US DOT would restrict the slots to US destinations.


I agree, I think if we assume for a moment that Delta gets all 6 of their requested slots, they immediately announce either, KIX-SIN/MNL, NGO-SIN/MNL or ICN-SIN, ICN-MNL, or they just close MNL and/or SIN. I tend to think they will keep them in some capacity because they have stuck around this long, but not necessarily.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:10 am
by ITSTours
mpdpilot wrote:
steex wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
That's a slot problem, true, but not a 5th Freedom problem, and slots at HND are increasing.
"Haneda's slots (total, not slot pairs) will increase by 39,000 per annum, from 447,000 to 486,000. The additional slots will all be for international flights. There are an existing 90,000 available slots for international services (at daytime and night-time hours), so international will have 129,000 slots. Details of the allocation (day/night, airline, etc.) have yet to be announced, but the additional gate space is scheduled to be available from Mar-2020."
https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... ows-401552

Without a JP partner, I think DL will try to revive 5th freedom rights from HND as soon as it can get slots... probably post-2020 Olympics.


But how would they get slots for fifth freedom? US DOT is never going to choose a non-US destination for a slot award it controls if there is ANY other application, and neither Japan nor Singapore is going to provide a slot to a carrier from another country. At a minimum, this would require unfettered slot flexibility, and I think even then US DOT would restrict the slots to US destinations.


I agree, I think if we assume for a moment that Delta gets all 6 of their requested slots, they immediately announce either, KIX-SIN/MNL, NGO-SIN/MNL or ICN-SIN, ICN-MNL, or they just close MNL and/or SIN. I tend to think they will keep them in some capacity because they have stuck around this long, but not necessarily.


The idea of ICN-SIN operated by Delta metal is fascinating, as ICN-SIN route is heavily restricted by traffic rights. Both Singapore and South Korea fully utilize their rights. Hence, the load factor is really high.
That's why I'm not sure if DL can do so if they want to. US-Singapore has open skies, US-SK has open skies, but SK-Singapore doesn't. Can DL really jump in?
Not in terms of commercial viability, but in terms of legality.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:35 am
by steex
ITSTours wrote:
mpdpilot wrote:
steex wrote:

But how would they get slots for fifth freedom? US DOT is never going to choose a non-US destination for a slot award it controls if there is ANY other application, and neither Japan nor Singapore is going to provide a slot to a carrier from another country. At a minimum, this would require unfettered slot flexibility, and I think even then US DOT would restrict the slots to US destinations.


I agree, I think if we assume for a moment that Delta gets all 6 of their requested slots, they immediately announce either, KIX-SIN/MNL, NGO-SIN/MNL or ICN-SIN, ICN-MNL, or they just close MNL and/or SIN. I tend to think they will keep them in some capacity because they have stuck around this long, but not necessarily.


The idea of ICN-SIN operated by Delta metal is fascinating, as ICN-SIN route is heavily restricted by traffic rights. Both Singapore and South Korea fully utilize their rights. Hence, the load factor is really high.
That's why I'm not sure if DL can do so if they want to. US-Singapore has open skies, US-SK has open skies, but SK-Singapore doesn't. Can DL really jump in?
Not in terms of commercial viability, but in terms of legality.


I have no idea what the bilaterals look like, but that concept isn't unheard of, at least. At a time when all Netherlands-India authorities allocated to Netherlands-based airlines were fully utilized, NW was able to additionally fly AMS-BOM to fill a void in KLM's network.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:52 am
by Nicknuzzii
What exactly are the "replies?" Are they essentially the answers to the "answer?"

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 4:20 am
by jbs2886
Nicknuzzii wrote:
What exactly are the "replies?" Are they essentially the answers to the "answer?"


Yes.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 4:23 am
by ITSTours
jbs2886 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
What exactly are the "replies?" Are they essentially the answers to the "answer?"


Yes.


Then 3/7 is not the day of the judgment? I've always thought two weeks are way too quick to be finalized...

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 4:25 am
by IPFreely
WPvsMW wrote:
DL's strongest FF base in Asia is probably JP, and DL will try to preserve as much of that in TYO as possible.


At one point that was no doubt true -- a legacy of Northwest / Northwest Orient. I doubt that it's true today as DL is no longer competitive with Star or OneWorld in Tokyo and in the future they will offer even less benefits for Tokyo-based FF's. DL's future FF base in Asia is in Seoul.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 4:35 am
by PSU.DTW.SCE
ITSTours wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
What exactly are the "replies?" Are they essentially the answers to the "answer?"


Yes.


Then 3/7 is not the day of the judgment? I've always thought two weeks are way too quick to be finalized...

The 3/7 deadline is for "answers" is defined as:

Replies to answers.
Within seven (7) days after the last day for filing an answer, any interested party may file a reply to one or more answers.

In more clear terms, any interested individual may submit a statement in response to any of the repiles/responses previously submitted.

So expect a bunch of statements in further support of applications, in further opposition other applications, or rebuttals.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 4:51 am
by WPvsMW
IPFreely wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
DL's strongest FF base in Asia is probably JP, and DL will try to preserve as much of that in TYO as possible.


At one point that was no doubt true -- a legacy of Northwest / Northwest Orient. I doubt that it's true today as DL is no longer competitive with Star or OneWorld in Tokyo and in the future they will offer even less benefits for Tokyo-based FF's. DL's future FF base in Asia is in Seoul.


Let's hope so, but that Korean national (hangug-in) FF base will only end up on DL metal by KE codeshares. DL is well known in Japan because of the beach markets, esp. HNL. Today, DL is today virtually unknown by leisure pax in Korea. Moreover, DL is not going to serve beach markets from ICN, so I doubt that DL ever attains the brand recognition it has today in Japan.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:02 am
by ITSTours
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Replies to answers.
Within seven (7) days after the last day for filing an answer, any interested party may file a reply to one or more answers.

In more clear terms, any interested individual may submit a statement in response to any of the repiles/responses previously submitted.

So expect a bunch of statements in further support of applications, in further opposition other applications, or rebuttals.


Thanks for the clarification. It could easily go months after this then.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:24 am
by jrkmsp
steex wrote:
ITSTours wrote:
mpdpilot wrote:

I agree, I think if we assume for a moment that Delta gets all 6 of their requested slots, they immediately announce either, KIX-SIN/MNL, NGO-SIN/MNL or ICN-SIN, ICN-MNL, or they just close MNL and/or SIN. I tend to think they will keep them in some capacity because they have stuck around this long, but not necessarily.


The idea of ICN-SIN operated by Delta metal is fascinating, as ICN-SIN route is heavily restricted by traffic rights. Both Singapore and South Korea fully utilize their rights. Hence, the load factor is really high.
That's why I'm not sure if DL can do so if they want to. US-Singapore has open skies, US-SK has open skies, but SK-Singapore doesn't. Can DL really jump in?
Not in terms of commercial viability, but in terms of legality.


I have no idea what the bilaterals look like, but that concept isn't unheard of, at least. At a time when all Netherlands-India authorities allocated to Netherlands-based airlines were fully utilized, NW was able to additionally fly AMS-BOM to fill a void in KLM's network.


The billaterals are clear. Any US airlines can operate any service from “behind” the US, via the US, through any intermediate third country, to Singapore and beyond, with traffic rights all along the way. The US South Korea treaty allows the exact thing.. So the only thing stopping Delta is commercial desire. If the SK-SIN traffic rights are exhausted, Delta moving its service to ICN could be a way for the JV to further support KE. It actually makes it more likely in my book than I would have thought a few week ago.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:32 am
by Rumack
Looking at the filings on regulations.gov I see that Chef Gordon Ramsay sent a support letter for AA LAS-HND. AA getting some star power! 8-)

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:09 pm
by alfa164
Rumack wrote:
Looking at the filings on regulations.gov I see that Chef Gordon Ramsay sent a support letter for AA LAS-HND. AA getting some star power! 8-)


I thought he had more "taste"... ;)

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:53 pm
by Rumack
alfa164 wrote:
Rumack wrote:
Looking at the filings on regulations.gov I see that Chef Gordon Ramsay sent a support letter for AA LAS-HND. AA getting some star power! 8-)


I thought he had more "taste"... ;)


It will be interesting to see what support the proposals get. I assume you'll see the usual politicos, travel agencies, and business groups but with Los Angeles and Las Vegas in the mix, perhaps the airlines are calling in all their "favors". There are a lot more letters on the docket. AA seems to be submitting them as separate filings while the others are stuffing them into their main submissions. Interesting that AA is taking a different approach to this. Perhaps they feel it creates more exposure?

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:43 pm
by mpdpilot
WPvsMW wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
DL's strongest FF base in Asia is probably JP, and DL will try to preserve as much of that in TYO as possible.


At one point that was no doubt true -- a legacy of Northwest / Northwest Orient. I doubt that it's true today as DL is no longer competitive with Star or OneWorld in Tokyo and in the future they will offer even less benefits for Tokyo-based FF's. DL's future FF base in Asia is in Seoul.


Let's hope so, but that Korean national (hangug-in) FF base will only end up on DL metal by KE codeshares. DL is well known in Japan because of the beach markets, esp. HNL. Today, DL is today virtually unknown by leisure pax in Korea. Moreover, DL is not going to serve beach markets from ICN, so I doubt that DL ever attains the brand recognition it has today in Japan.


This is something a feel like a lot of people overlook. Northwest and Delta by extension have a deep history in Japan and serve a lot of Japanese travelers. While I think they are smarter than AA by not mentioning it, I am guessing that their Japan point of sale is quite good from Tokyo to Hawaii and the rest of the US. This is what makes this HND thing such a big deal for Delta, if they loose their convenience to Japan to JAL/ANA they loose significant revenue from Japan. With HA flying HNL-HND and JL/NH flying US-HND, I am betting that Delta has already seen the decline in revenue. I am also betting that UA/AA/HA know this and would like nothing more than for the DOT to give Delta less, not just because they want more service themselves, but that it will hurt Delta more.

jrkmsp wrote:
steex wrote:
ITSTours wrote:

The idea of ICN-SIN operated by Delta metal is fascinating, as ICN-SIN route is heavily restricted by traffic rights. Both Singapore and South Korea fully utilize their rights. Hence, the load factor is really high.
That's why I'm not sure if DL can do so if they want to. US-Singapore has open skies, US-SK has open skies, but SK-Singapore doesn't. Can DL really jump in?
Not in terms of commercial viability, but in terms of legality.


I have no idea what the bilaterals look like, but that concept isn't unheard of, at least. At a time when all Netherlands-India authorities allocated to Netherlands-based airlines were fully utilized, NW was able to additionally fly AMS-BOM to fill a void in KLM's network.


The billaterals are clear. Any US airlines can operate any service from “behind” the US, via the US, through any intermediate third country, to Singapore and beyond, with traffic rights all along the way. The US South Korea treaty allows the exact thing.. So the only thing stopping Delta is commercial desire. If the SK-SIN traffic rights are exhausted, Delta moving its service to ICN could be a way for the JV to further support KE. It actually makes it more likely in my book than I would have thought a few week ago.


This is very interesting, I was not aware of this bilateral, it almost makes all four routes possible (i.e. KIX-SIN or MNL, NGO-SIN or MNL, ICN-SIN, ICN-MNL) Delta could keep their Japanese 5th freedom service, and add service out of ICN. While the US-SIN/MNL capacity might not warrant the two flights, ICN, KIX, or NGO demand to SIN or MNL might fill in the gap nicely. I am sure the Delta route planning team has a solution they are ready to announce when the HND slots are announced.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 4:48 pm
by LondonXtreme
DOT should announce the final decision today, any updates?

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 4:50 pm
by Rumack
LondonXtreme wrote:
DOT should announce the final decision today, any updates?


Incorrect. Today is the third and final round of filings from the carriers. DOT won't make a decision for many, many weeks and does not announce when a decision will be made. There is actually another process when this happens as they will issue a "Show Cause" order with a tentative decision which carriers and others can reply to, before issuing a final ruling.

Carriers and others will begin filing between 4 and 5 eastern time.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 07, 2019 8:53 pm
by Rumack
We should start seeing carriers and others filing within the hour -- it will be interesting to see how they respond in this final round! Get out the popcorn, folks!

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:10 am
by ITSTours
This was basically a reiteration of the airlines making weird claims. Nothing new, nothing interesting.
The only thing that has some merits is the Port of Portland's rebuttal to AA which viciously attacked the DL's PDX-HND route.
They're the only local government which publicly came to fight with the airline. AA has done something too much, apparently.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:55 am
by jfk777
mpdpilot wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
IPFreely wrote:

At one point that was no doubt true -- a legacy of Northwest / Northwest Orient. I doubt that it's true today as DL is no longer competitive with Star or OneWorld in Tokyo and in the future they will offer even less benefits for Tokyo-based FF's. DL's future FF base in Asia is in Seoul.


Let's hope so, but that Korean national (hangug-in) FF base will only end up on DL metal by KE codeshares. DL is well known in Japan because of the beach markets, esp. HNL. Today, DL is today virtually unknown by leisure pax in Korea. Moreover, DL is not going to serve beach markets from ICN, so I doubt that DL ever attains the brand recognition it has today in Japan.


This is something a feel like a lot of people overlook. Northwest and Delta by extension have a deep history in Japan and serve a lot of Japanese travelers. While I think they are smarter than AA by not mentioning it, I am guessing that their Japan point of sale is quite good from Tokyo to Hawaii and the rest of the US. This is what makes this HND thing such a big deal for Delta, if they loose their convenience to Japan to JAL/ANA they loose significant revenue from Japan. With HA flying HNL-HND and JL/NH flying US-HND, I am betting that Delta has already seen the decline in revenue. I am also betting that UA/AA/HA know this and would like nothing more than for the DOT to give Delta less, not just because they want more service themselves, but that it will hurt Delta more.

jrkmsp wrote:
steex wrote:

I have no idea what the bilaterals look like, but that concept isn't unheard of, at least. At a time when all Netherlands-India authorities allocated to Netherlands-based airlines were fully utilized, NW was able to additionally fly AMS-BOM to fill a void in KLM's network.


The billaterals are clear. Any US airlines can operate any service from “behind” the US, via the US, through any intermediate third country, to Singapore and beyond, with traffic rights all along the way. The US South Korea treaty allows the exact thing.. So the only thing stopping Delta is commercial desire. If the SK-SIN traffic rights are exhausted, Delta moving its service to ICN could be a way for the JV to further support KE. It actually makes it more likely in my book than I would have thought a few week ago.


This is very interesting, I was not aware of this bilateral, it almost makes all four routes possible (i.e. KIX-SIN or MNL, NGO-SIN or MNL, ICN-SIN, ICN-MNL) Delta could keep their Japanese 5th freedom service, and add service out of ICN. While the US-SIN/MNL capacity might not warrant the two flights, ICN, KIX, or NGO demand to SIN or MNL might fill in the gap nicely. I am sure the Delta route planning team has a solution they are ready to announce when the HND slots are announced.


IF Singapore is so desirable for Delta then they need to forget Japan and fly there nonstop from Seattle. They have the planes, either 777 or A350. Delta has to stop this half way effort of flying a 767 from NRT to SIN, it time to do it right. The days of flying west from Tokyo to other Asian cities are over for Northwest(Delta) & UA.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:14 am
by WPvsMW
No so fast... the majority, if not most,of the traffic, NRT/SIN are Japanese nationals. Nonstops SEA/SIN would lose the TYO O&D traffic. My observations are based on watching during deplaning in NRT who goes into the transit lounge and who proceeds to C&I.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:25 am
by Nicknuzzii
Can someone please post the replies if they find them?

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:32 am
by ITSTours
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Can someone please post the replies if they find them?


https://www.regulations.gov/docket?D=DOT-OST-2019-0014
All here.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:43 am
by BA744PHX
Does anyone have details on JP & NH proposed routes?

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:33 am
by MSPNWA
ITSTours wrote:
The only thing that has some merits is the Port of Portland's rebuttal to AA which viciously attacked the DL's PDX-HND route.
They're the only local government which publicly came to fight with the airline. AA has done something too much, apparently.


Yeah, that was the only noteworthy response. PDX is likely worried about losing their Tokyo flight. This frequency allocation may make or break it.

Their reply was interesting, but it was laced with issues.

* They say operating a flight year-round (but of course not daily year-round) is enough to prove the viability of the switch.
* They assume the same O&D % gain at MSP-HND - a route with low O&D - can be extrapolated to one with high O&D. And what if MSP-HND was stimulated by low prices? Yields aren't mentioned.
* They mention the PDX-HND O&D passenger is paying 11% more. Well, there is no PDX-HND. Realistically that means they're talking about the few people flying HND-LAX-PDX or the like, routes likely low in demand and high in price, appealing to a small subset of passengers that want to fly out of HND and will literally fly the extra mile to do it.
* Then they combine the two "gains" to create a 30% suggested revenue increase with PDX-HND. That's pulling helpful numbers out of a hat, not a realistic estimate.
* Next, they're cleverly deceptive with the 8% revenue claim on NRT-SIN/MNL. For one, that tells us nothing about how many people are flying the route. It also excludes those flying LAX-PDX-NRT-SIN/MNL. And of course it's all dependent on where the revenue is assigned. If the airline doesn't assign as much revenue to PDX-NRT, it's going to be artificially low. 8% with those limiting factors is significant. It tells us that LAX and SIN/MNL are important starting and ending cities for PDX-NRT.
* And to cap it off, they say that DL committing the resources it must make it viable. Well, DL has asked for frequencies to replace all of their remaining NRT flights. If PDX was requested and another route wasn't, then PDX has a point. DL has also committed resources to more than HND route that ultimately failed. It tells us nothing that DL is asking for it.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:04 am
by jumbojet
I found this to be rather interesting, it is the reply of Delta Air Lines specifically to JetBlue's response to the matter goes something like this:


JetBlue’s Answer is Logically Flawed and Irrelevant to this Proceeding.
JetBlue, and to a lesser extent United, attempt to draw a parallel between Delta’s
arguments in this proceeding and JetBlue’s arguments in opposition to the Joint Motion of Delta,
Virgin Atlantic, and Air France-KLM for antitrust immunity for an amended transatlantic joint
venture.63 JetBlue suggests that if the Department agrees with Delta that it should take into
account the competitive conditions created by the immunized Japanese joint ventures in this
proceeding when deciding how to allocate the newly available Haneda slots, “then fundamental
fairness and due process dictate that the Department also recognize JetBlue’s need for similar
access at LHR and AMS.”64 This argument ignores the obvious fact that this is a slot allocation
proceeding (the “2019 U.S.-Haneda Combination Services Allocation Proceeding”). The purpose
of a slot allocation proceeding is indeed to allocate slots. By contrast, the purpose of an antitrust
immunity proceeding is to determine whether the proposed alliance agreement will harm
competition and whether it will generate public benefits. Delta has already explained at length
why there is no basis in law or fact for JetBlue’s false contentions about the proposed transatlantic
joint venture in that docket and will not repeat those arguments here.
JetBlue also ignores the fact that the legal regimes for acquiring slots at both London
Heathrow and Amsterdam Schiphol are fundamentally different from Tokyo Haneda. At Heathrow
and Schiphol, carriers can apply to the local slot coordinators for takeoff and landing rights;

carriers can buy, sell, and trade slots; and there is a working secondary market to obtain slots
from other carriers. Haneda, in contrast, has none of these mechanisms for new entrants to
acquire slots. In fact, Haneda access is explicitly limited by the terms of the U.S.-Japan
Agreement. No other open skies jurisdiction features such illiberal controls on airport access

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:36 pm
by Midwestindy
Some interesting insights provided by LAS....
Image
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:47 pm
by MARSHAL1
Wow, that's some great charts from Las Vegas. It really looks like Las Vegas is making sure that they get a HND flight.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:55 pm
by kavok
MARSHAL1 wrote:
Wow, that's some great charts from Las Vegas. It really looks like Las Vegas is making sure that they get a HND flight.


LAS seems to be implying they are HNL lite.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:48 am
by usairways85
I wasn't expecting PHL to be high, but it has to bleed to EWR. With the near double digit number of flights to Asia and a 1-2 hour train/drive to PHL area. One stop PHL-NRT options are 4-6 hours longer than the EWR-NRT nonstop. And many AA one-stop options are 2-3 hours longer than the UA PHL-NRT one-stop options

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:29 am
by nomorerjs
And anetters think PHL is AAs new Asia hub with 22 a day to NRT? ORD has more F / J per day than that and AA can’t make it work. Good luck PHL! And CLT?

I can see JL doing HND-BOS/DFW/LAX/MIA/ORD/SEA, but HND-AUS/BNA/CLT/PHL/PHX/RDU make little sense.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:03 am
by J343
LurveBus wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
So I guess the end is near for DL both MNL and SIN. Wonder why'd they'd stuck with these two places in particular when destinations like BKK and HKG went away a long time ago.

As someone who's been lurking A.net for years but only created an account today, could someone help explain how and why MNL (and Southeast Asia as a whole except for SIN) are considered as low-yielding routes in spite of decent load factors? Anecdotally, a few years back when DL still had 747s and served both NGO and NRT from MNL, more often than not the flights were full. Plus PR have been serving North America non-stop for years and despite recent struggles seem to be doing rather fine at it, meanwhile airlines like MH and TG already quit directly serving North America. Is PR doing something right and the others wrong, or does PR have different dynamics compared to the others?


Yields between MNL and Japan have always been historically high. The flight survives on Tokyo-MNL o/d.

Once upon a time, NW, then DL, was the largest player in the Japan-Philippines market. Now there’s a PR/NH JV, JAL, and several LCCs. Kinda put pressure on the MNL service.

As for why PR pulls it off, they have a different cost structure. The slim margins for others are important to them.

Anyway, I’m sure that in a fantasy world where DL gets the slots to move it’s NRT 5ths to HND, the MNL/SIN flights would continue. But as DL removes even more spokes from NRT and moves it to HND, it isn’t hard to see that the flights may not last.


What are you talking about!? PR and NH DOES NOT have a joint venture. They have extensive codeshare agreement. The end might be near for SIN and MNL for DL but who knows? It could be a gain on either JL, NH or PR side, or even 5J, they might pick up the slot. I'd quite like JL to pick it up in all honesty.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:19 am
by a19901213
Chances of Delta flying from HND to SIN is like Miami non stop flight to Japan.

There’s always possibility but might not ever happen.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:39 pm
by zakuivcustom
Midwestindy wrote:
Some interesting insights provided by LAS....
Image
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But...But...according to some people here, TYO-MIA is in uber high demand and should be flown by both AA and JL and NH :duck:

It also show how insanely overserved TYO-ORD is right now. No wonder AA jump off the ship. Granted, you can add in the 43 PDEW to CMH, 28 PDEW to IND, and perhaps 31 PDEW to BNA (and some other smaller Midwest markets), which makes the number look better. But the previous 5 daily flights is simply way too much capacity.

P.S. The DL-fanboyism is definitely insane in this thread. So just b/c they're DL they should get additional HND slots to fly to places like MNL or SIN, at the expense of local carriers like JL/NH? Not going to happen. Plus DL has that magical SEA hub where there are enough demand to every single East/SE Asian cities anyway. :duck:

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:33 pm
by klm617
I actually think DTW not being awarded a HND slot would be a win for Detroit. I know it's backwards logic and DTW will probably get a slot but if DTW were not awarded a slot they might have a chance to get a onestop flight to SIN or MNL plus by getting a HND slot that kind of caps any chance of growth in the Detroit Tokyo market.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:35 pm
by klm617
Would be nice to see NH or JL add DTW

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:47 pm
by PHLspecial
usairways85 wrote:
I wasn't expecting PHL to be high, but it has to bleed to EWR. With the near double digit number of flights to Asia and a 1-2 hour train/drive to PHL area. One stop PHL-NRT options are 4-6 hours longer than the EWR-NRT nonstop. And many AA one-stop options are 2-3 hours longer than the UA PHL-NRT one-stop options


Looking up all the one stop opinions from AA, DL, and UA from PHL-NRT. All are about roughly in the same time duration. So it's possible to do PHL-NRT under 20 hours but you are right about the 4-6 hours extra.

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:48 am
by acentauri
nomorerjs wrote:
And anetters think PHL is AAs new Asia hub with 22 a day to NRT? ORD has more F / J per day than that and AA can’t make it work. Good luck PHL! And CLT?

I can see JL doing HND-BOS/DFW/LAX/MIA/ORD/SEA, but HND-AUS/BNA/CLT/PHL/PHX/RDU make little sense.

PHL's international catchment is significantly larger than CLT. PHL-NRT (788) is rationalized by both projected network connecting traffic and enhanced O&D from overlapping NJ,MD and PA air catchments, which currently bleed PHL-Japan to driveable JFK/EWR/IAD. Either a 788 (initially) or 789 (more cargo) can easily do the route on a 2 year trial basis to test the bleed offset - or not. Since the only current PHL-Asia non-stop service is QR, PHL-NRT will essentially have minimal non-India competition for beyond connections.

If an airline made route decisions solely on the basis of current no service O&D passenger counts, they'd be out of business.

You anetters kill me. :roll:

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:54 am
by BA744PHX
So from my understand PHX has more passengers to Tokyo then MSP and nearly the same as DEN, both of which has NRT service... ain't that something......
Midwestindy wrote:
Some interesting insights provided by LAS....
Image
Image

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:06 pm
by UA857
Will cargo airlines remain at Narita or will they moved to Haneda?

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:07 pm
by Boof02671
When are the route authorities going to be awarded?