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rotating14
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West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:16 pm

The Canadian carrier is weighing its options for the MAX 10 and the MAX 8. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... inks-fleet
 
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lightsaber
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:19 pm

I expect the financing terms on the -7 make it more expensive than the -8. Obviously doesn't apply to WN who buys aircraft directly or with huge collateral.
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zkojq
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:25 pm

With the MAX7 so close in size now to the MAX8, what's the point? Westjet doesn't have any particularly short runways at their hubs (whereas WN has SNA, MDW etc) do they? For their lower capacity routes, an older, paid-off 737-800 probably makes more sense.
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:28 pm

I found this quite interesting, the CEO suggests sending the -10 TATL.

“We really want to evaluate the Max 10,’’ Sims said. “It’s got significant additional seat capacity -- up to 30 extra seats -- and at least the same level of range as the Max 8. The beauty for us in the Max is essentially it’s a narrow-body Dreamliner, so it is easily capable of operating transatlantic.’
 
wrongwayup
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:41 pm

I have long thought we'll never see a 737-7MAX enter service. WestJet keeps making noises like this, Southwest keeps deferring them - I'm surprised at this point Boeing would even be willing to go through the certification effort instead of working out a deal that, for example, delivers the airlines -8MAXes at -7 prices.
 
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:59 pm

wrongwayup wrote:
I have long thought we'll never see a 737-7MAX enter service. WestJet keeps making noises like this, Southwest keeps deferring them - I'm surprised at this point Boeing would even be willing to go through the certification effort instead of working out a deal that, for example, delivers the airlines -8MAXes at -7 prices.


I’d imagine they’re pretty well into certification at this point so not much to lose. Definitely not great for the -7 though.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:54 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
wrongwayup wrote:
I have long thought we'll never see a 737-7MAX enter service. WestJet keeps making noises like this, Southwest keeps deferring them - I'm surprised at this point Boeing would even be willing to go through the certification effort instead of working out a deal that, for example, delivers the airlines -8MAXes at -7 prices.


I’d imagine they’re pretty well into certification at this point so not much to lose. Definitely not great for the -7 though.

The -7/A319NEO never had a good business case. The new engines add weight, nacelles drag, and have a higher optimal thrust. Every re-engine always pushes the most economical gauge larger.

The is A318/B736 Deja Vu. Expect a similar or worse secondary market.

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wrongwayup
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:43 am

lightsaber wrote:
Expect a similar or worse secondary market.


Hard to imagine worse could even be possible! Teardown value after the first operator is done with it, as early as that may be. Ouch.
 
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:07 am

wrongwayup wrote:
I have long thought we'll never see a 737-7MAX enter service. WestJet keeps making noises like this, Southwest keeps deferring them - I'm surprised at this point Boeing would even be willing to go through the certification effort instead of working out a deal that, for example, delivers the airlines -8MAXes at -7 prices.


I believe WN does take them down the line to replace older B737s. But they're likely the only airline that could take them. I'd be surprised if anyone other than WN takes a B37M. WN has a need for planes smaller than the B38M, in particular operations out of airports like SNA. As for going TATL...WS would be wise to get the B39M to carry more passengers with a range similar to the B38M.

The A19M was effectively killed by the BCS3.
 
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:09 am

How much additional range does 7M7 have compared to 7M8, and how come 7MX can have the same range to 7M8? As far the brouchure goes, 7MX is not significantly better than 739ER in terms of range, while 7M7 does have a few hundred knots longer in terms of range. A221s and 7M8s both make sense to me; 7MX will have to be pushed to exaggerating level to reach the TATL goal.
 
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:11 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
wrongwayup wrote:
I have long thought we'll never see a 737-7MAX enter service. WestJet keeps making noises like this, Southwest keeps deferring them - I'm surprised at this point Boeing would even be willing to go through the certification effort instead of working out a deal that, for example, delivers the airlines -8MAXes at -7 prices.


I believe WN does take them down the line to replace older B737s. But they're likely the only airline that could take them. I'd be surprised if anyone other than WN takes a B37M. WN has a need for planes smaller than the B38M, in particular operations out of airports like SNA. As for going TATL...WS would be wise to get the B39M to carry more passengers with a range similar to the B38M.

The A19M was effectively killed by the BCS3.


The last sentence nailed it. A220s can do regionals, can serve ultra-high airports, can do TATLs, and is soooooo much more efficient than A319neos. Why not?
 
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:13 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
wrongwayup wrote:
I have long thought we'll never see a 737-7MAX enter service. WestJet keeps making noises like this, Southwest keeps deferring them - I'm surprised at this point Boeing would even be willing to go through the certification effort instead of working out a deal that, for example, delivers the airlines -8MAXes at -7 prices.


I’d imagine they’re pretty well into certification at this point so not much to lose. Definitely not great for the -7 though.


Boeing will sell plenty as BBJs, I'm sure.
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:30 am

B1168 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
wrongwayup wrote:
I have long thought we'll never see a 737-7MAX enter service. WestJet keeps making noises like this, Southwest keeps deferring them - I'm surprised at this point Boeing would even be willing to go through the certification effort instead of working out a deal that, for example, delivers the airlines -8MAXes at -7 prices.


I believe WN does take them down the line to replace older B737s. But they're likely the only airline that could take them. I'd be surprised if anyone other than WN takes a B37M. WN has a need for planes smaller than the B38M, in particular operations out of airports like SNA. As for going TATL...WS would be wise to get the B39M to carry more passengers with a range similar to the B38M.

The A19N was effectively killed by the BCS3.


The last sentence nailed it. A220s can do regionals, can serve ultra-high airports, can do TATLs, and is soooooo much more efficient than A319neos. Why not?


The A220 can't do TATL, but then again, I can't think of a single route TATL that can't be done with a MAX 8/9 or an A321neo/A321LR.

As for a BBJ, one can be sold a MAX 8 or an A320neo as a "green plane".
 
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:56 am

The A220 could almost certainly do short transatlantic flights.
 
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:04 am

I've always thought that WN wanted them so that they could smoothly transition from the 73G to the 7MAX, valuing the ability to substitute one aircraft for the other at any time. I've always thought that WS was repeating the same mistake they made with the 736.
 
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keesje
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:13 am

Southwest CEO sees 60% of fleet becoming the 737-7


https://leehamnews.com/2018/03/01/south ... ing-737-7/

However Southwest has also been discussing the CSeries in the past.

The A220 is way (6t) lighter and more economical to operate than a 737-7 as a 737-700 replacement.

Southwest has 500 (!) 737-700s and has started phasing out the oldest ones.

Image

However, I can't imagine Boeing taking a wait & see approach here, and they are close to having Embraer on board.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:17 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
B1168 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:

I believe WN does take them down the line to replace older B737s. But they're likely the only airline that could take them. I'd be surprised if anyone other than WN takes a B37M. WN has a need for planes smaller than the B38M, in particular operations out of airports like SNA. As for going TATL...WS would be wise to get the B39M to carry more passengers with a range similar to the B38M.

The A19N was effectively killed by the BCS3.


The last sentence nailed it. A220s can do regionals, can serve ultra-high airports, can do TATLs, and is soooooo much more efficient than A319neos. Why not?


The A220 can't do TATL, but then again, I can't think of a single route TATL that can't be done with a MAX 8/9 or an A321neo/A321LR.

As for a BBJ, one can be sold a MAX 8 or an A320neo as a "green plane".


TATLs can range from YYT-LHR(4.5hrs) to TLV-LAX (14.5hrs), while A220s can fly up to 3500 nm. For your reference, JFK-LHR is only 3000nm long. For this reason, your statement that A220 can’t do TATL is not true(otherwise why will it get ETOPS 180), nor was the other.
 
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:58 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I believe WN does take them down the line to replace older B737s. But they're likely the only airline that could take them. I'd be surprised if anyone other than WN takes a B37M.


Turkmenistan will also take the -7MAX, they recently ordered 2 commercial examples plus a BBJ variant. I think the first delivery may be this year.
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:07 pm

keesje wrote:

Southwest has 500 (!) 737-700s and has started phasing out the oldest ones.



Show your work. They wrote one off after a nosegear failure and have the passenger sucked out a window aircraft stored. Beyond that every 73G they had is still in service, all 512.

Where are these mythical parked -700s?
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:33 pm

THis thread is about Weather, not Southwest A220s.

The article is a bit jumbled, but from what I can tell, the 737-8 efficiency is attractive to Westjet, especially after they started operating the planes. Financiers may not like the 737-7 much. Sounds like it is advantageous for both Boeing and Westjet to upgauge. Westjet also has plenty of 10 year old 737-700s with plenty of life left in them so they likely are in no rush to replace them.
 
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:06 pm

Spacepope wrote:
keesje wrote:

Southwest has 500 (!) 737-700s and has started phasing out the oldest ones.



Show your work. They wrote one off after a nosegear failure and have the passenger sucked out a window aircraft stored. Beyond that every 73G they had is still in service, all 512.

Where are these mythical parked -700s?


It may not have started just yet but, beginning this year, WN are going to be phasing out the oldest of the 73Gs, which will be over 20 years old now

https://leehamnews.com/2018/04/30/southwest-accelerates-737-700-retirements/
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:56 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
THis thread is about Weather, not Southwest A220s.


Is it? ;)

This development is not surprising, of course. The B37M just does not offer a whole lot to WS. Of course they have made do with their 736's, but it seems unlikely that they love them.

The issue for Westjet, though, would be the massive gulf in capacity between the Q400 and the B38M. Surely they have many routes where they would like to have equipment with a capacity in that range.

Am I the only one who thinks the elephant in the room may be a highly capable small narrowbody aircraft, ideal for 110-130 pax, good for long and thin routes, and which happens to be built in a province where Westjet has had a hell of a time getting a foothold?
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MIflyer12
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:08 pm

B1168 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
wrongwayup wrote:
I have long thought we'll never see a 737-7MAX enter service. WestJet keeps making noises like this, Southwest keeps deferring them - I'm surprised at this point Boeing would even be willing to go through the certification effort instead of working out a deal that, for example, delivers the airlines -8MAXes at -7 prices.


I believe WN does take them down the line to replace older B737s. But they're likely the only airline that could take them. I'd be surprised if anyone other than WN takes a B37M. WN has a need for planes smaller than the B38M, in particular operations out of airports like SNA. As for going TATL...WS would be wise to get the B39M to carry more passengers with a range similar to the B38M.

The A19M was effectively killed by the BCS3.


The last sentence nailed it. A220s can do regionals, can serve ultra-high airports, can do TATLs, and is soooooo much more efficient than A319neos. Why not?


Why not? Maybe because a small operator like WS wouldn't want another fleet type! If you're running Max 8/9/10s, a few Max 7s can make sense in markets with low price elasticity of demand (such that filling the extra seats of a Max 8 demands stupidly cheap fares for the last ~30 tickets). It's why the world isn't filled with A380s.
 
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:14 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
B1168 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:

I believe WN does take them down the line to replace older B737s. But they're likely the only airline that could take them. I'd be surprised if anyone other than WN takes a B37M. WN has a need for planes smaller than the B38M, in particular operations out of airports like SNA. As for going TATL...WS would be wise to get the B39M to carry more passengers with a range similar to the B38M.

The A19M was effectively killed by the BCS3.


The last sentence nailed it. A220s can do regionals, can serve ultra-high airports, can do TATLs, and is soooooo much more efficient than A319neos. Why not?


Why not? Maybe because a small operator like WS wouldn't want another fleet type! If you're running Max 8/9/10s, a few Max 7s can make sense in markets with low price elasticity of demand (such that filling the extra seats of a Max 8 demands stupidly cheap fares for the last ~30 tickets). It's why the world isn't filled with A380s.

Your logic goes against what a lot on here are saying.

A few 737-7's in an airline that has plenty of 737-8/-9/-10's makes a lot of sense; similarly, a few A319neo's in an airline with A320/21 neo's.
That's why I think CSALP will design and built the A220-500 (f.k.a. CS500) for the airlines that will need a handful of airplanes bigger than the A220-300 without introducing a new fleet type.
 
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:39 pm

A lot of this market has been taken over by the Bombardier CSeries. Bombardier is the real game-changer in this market. That's why the A319neo and 737-7 have sold poorly, as well as why the 737-600 got discontinued and there's no A318neo either.
To me, it will always be:
- Bombardier CSeries
- Airbus A321neoLR and A321neoXLR
- EMBRACER ERJ-170, ERJ-175, ERJ-190, and ERJ-195
- MITSUBUSHI MRJ

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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:39 pm

Jean Leloup wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
THis thread is about Weather, not Southwest A220s.


Is it? ;)

This development is not surprising, of course. The B37M just does not offer a whole lot to WS. Of course they have made do with their 736's, but it seems unlikely that they love them.

The issue for Westjet, though, would be the massive gulf in capacity between the Q400 and the B38M. Surely they have many routes where they would like to have equipment with a capacity in that range.

Am I the only one who thinks the elephant in the room may be a highly capable small narrowbody aircraft, ideal for 110-130 pax, good for long and thin routes, and which happens to be built in a province where Westjet has had a hell of a time getting a foothold?


Yes weather was an autocorrect

The discussion of the A220 ignores what is currently in the fleet. They may want the plane in 10 years, but Westjet has over 50 737-700s in their current fleet with some less than 10 years old. The need for 737-7s or A220s is quite far off. In the short term, westjet is expanding in areas where larger 737s in the fleet makes sense.
 
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:37 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
B1168 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:

I believe WN does take them down the line to replace older B737s. But they're likely the only airline that could take them. I'd be surprised if anyone other than WN takes a B37M. WN has a need for planes smaller than the B38M, in particular operations out of airports like SNA. As for going TATL...WS would be wise to get the B39M to carry more passengers with a range similar to the B38M.

The A19M was effectively killed by the BCS3.


The last sentence nailed it. A220s can do regionals, can serve ultra-high airports, can do TATLs, and is soooooo much more efficient than A319neos. Why not?


Why not? Maybe because a small operator like WS wouldn't want another fleet type! If you're running Max 8/9/10s, a few Max 7s can make sense in markets with low price elasticity of demand (such that filling the extra seats of a Max 8 demands stupidly cheap fares for the last ~30 tickets). It's why the world isn't filled with A380s.

Of course, we're talking about an airline currently flying the Q400, 737-600/700/800/MAX8, 767-300ER, and 787-9. They don't seem that allergic to new types.

On the other hand, while having the perfect sized aircraft is nice, it's not strictly necessary, and especially when the 7MAX has no real economic advantage over the MAX8. Besides, I've never heard a passenger complain about empty seats.
 
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:53 pm

PlymSpotter wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
keesje wrote:


Show your work. They wrote one off after a nosegear failure and have the passenger sucked out a window aircraft stored. Beyond that every 73G they had is still in service, all 512.

Where are these mythical parked -700s?


It may not have started just yet but, beginning this year, WN are going to be phasing out the oldest of the 73Gs, which will be over 20 years old now

https://leehamnews.com/2018/04/30/southwest-accelerates-737-700-retirements/


Thnx. I said "started phasing out" because SW announced that. You cut that out of your reply and ask me to show my mythical parked 737-700s. That looks a little dishonest.

SW can reshuffle some of the retirements, increasing the share of 737-800s/-8s. I think their are 4-5 737-7 customers, the two biggest defer/convert their orders. Still I think SW will need a few hundred <149 seats /3 ca aircraft. Boeing customized the -7 for Southwest but should feel uncomfortable by now.
Last edited by keesje on Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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SteelChair
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:53 pm

The 737-7Max and 319neo have been weak for several years, even before the CS300/A220. When the CS finally made it into production, it sealed their demise.

I wonder if being Canadian might swing Westjet towards the A220, along with their tie in with Delta, on top of the reasons already mentioned above.
 
planecane
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:12 pm

keesje wrote:
PlymSpotter wrote:
Spacepope wrote:

Show your work. They wrote one off after a nosegear failure and have the passenger sucked out a window aircraft stored. Beyond that every 73G they had is still in service, all 512.

Where are these mythical parked -700s?


It may not have started just yet but, beginning this year, WN are going to be phasing out the oldest of the 73Gs, which will be over 20 years old now

https://leehamnews.com/2018/04/30/southwest-accelerates-737-700-retirements/


Thnx. SW can reshuffle some of the retirements, increasing the share of 737-800s/-8s. I think their are 4-5 737-7, the two biggest defer/convert their orders. Still I think SW will need a few hundred <149 seats /3 ca aircraft. Boeing customized the -7 for Southwest but should feel uncomfortable by now.


It's going to be many years before WN needs a few hundred 150 or fewer seat aircraft. Long enough that they can be the launch customer for the NSA. Near term 73G retirements are basically being upguaged to the -800/-8 size.

Boeing doesn't need to feel too uncomfortable. They customized the -7 to where it became a shrink of the -8. It is simpler and cheaper to manufacture than the original -7 would have been. There are something around 0 sales that would have been made of the original incarnation that won't be made of the new incarnation. Airbus only has orders for 55 A319NEOs so it ins't like the -7 is underperforming vs the nearest direct competitor.

The Boeing JV with Embraer is being done for a reason. It isn't just so they can get together in Brazil for company meetings. I can guarantee that something will be launched shortly after the JV is closed. I don't know if it will be something based on the E2 but I'm pretty sure that it will be something in the sub 150 seat class.
 
wrongwayup
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:24 pm

SteelChair wrote:
The 737-7Max and 319neo have been weak for several years, even before the CS300/A220. When the CS finally made it into production, it sealed their demise.

I wonder if being Canadian might swing Westjet towards the A220, along with their tie in with Delta, on top of the reasons already mentioned above.


That'll get you in the door, but it won't win you the business.
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:09 pm

SteelChair wrote:
I wonder if being Canadian might swing Westjet towards the A220...

I would not bet on that one. Vermont & the rest of New England have more affinities / business dealings with Quebec than Alberta's WestJet has with Quebec.

On the other end an A220 procurement could improve WestJet's image and would also be a better sized aircraft to finally crack the market around here.
 
CS500
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:59 pm

WS is going to have to compete with AC A220.

WS is also aligned with DL, who is in love with the A220 at the moment.

The A220 is also the perfect airplane for Canada, which has many, many routes that can't support larger equipment and are a few hours in length.

So I think it will actually be hard for WS to not cave in and get A220.
 
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keesje
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:12 pm

planecane wrote:
Airbus only has orders for 55 A319NEOs so it ins't like the -7 is underperforming vs the nearest direct competitor.


I couldn't agree. Hundreds of A220-300s from many customers in the backlog.

The 737-7 backlog is worse than I thought. It seems 30 for SW, with most deferred 4 years. Westjet 23, now reconsidered, 5 for to be created ULC Jetlines, 3 for Turkmenistan and.. that's it. Tough to be optimistic here.

The Boeing JV with Embraer is being done for a reason. It isn't just so they can get together in Brazil for company meetings. I can guarantee that something will be launched shortly after the JV is closed. I don't know if it will be something based on the E2 but I'm pretty sure that it will be something in the sub 150 seat class.


Agree, Boeing could IMO provide the resources and marketconfidence to create a credible 120-150 seat solution. The weakness of the 737-7 market acceptance would make such a direction easier.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:19 pm

I agree with you that the 737-7 is not likely to succeed for all the reasons stated. (And the lower resale value won't work out for leasing outfits either). So most will indeed switch to more 737-8s / or go for the CSeries...

Boeing definitely has a competitive gap below the 737-8. So as you say, Boeing/Embraer will most probably push for an "E200" to somehow fill that gap. (And then Airbus would launch a CS500 "light", with killer CASMs - just kidding)

But I'm not optimistic of its success - if we compare with the current E195E2 "success"...(yes, that should however improve with Boeing's backing)
 
wrongwayup
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Re: West Jet MAX 7 order in doubt

Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:40 pm

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Boeing definitely has a competitive gap below the 737-8. So as you say, Boeing/Embraer will most probably push for an "E200" to somehow fill that gap. (And then Airbus would launch a CS500 "light", with killer CASMs - just kidding)


Why kid? This is exactly what I think A should do! There was talk back in the day of BBD doing a -500/-700 with a new wing and an 1100-series GTF, but I think you do a simple-stretch/CASM-killer -500 now that it's part of the bigger A lineup would be a killer portfolio. Range and takeoff performance would come down but it would outdo the A320NEO on short hops.

A220-100/-300/-500 + A320NEO/A321NEO/A321XLR plus maybe something like an A322... Boeing + E195E2 would have their work cut out for them.

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