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enilria
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OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:06 pm

FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

4M EZE-MIA JUL 1.4>1.0[1.1] AUG 1.5>1.0[1.1] SEP 1.4>1.0[1.2] OCT 1.5>1.0[1.1] NOV 1.4>1.0[1.0]

7H AKN-ANC OCT 0.9>0.2[0.9]
7H AKN-DLG OCT 0.9>0.2[0.9]
7H ANC-DLG OCT 0.9>0.2[0.9]
7H ANC-OTZ OCT 0.7>0.4[0.5]
7H ANI-CHU OCT 0.4>0.7[0.4]
7H ANI-SRV OCT 0.2>0.4[0.2]
7H BET-EEK OCT 1.8>0.4[1.8]
7H BET-KPN OCT 1.4>1.9[1.4]
7H BET-KWK OCT 1.0>1.4[0.9]
7H BET-KWN OCT 3>1.9[2]
7H BET-MYU OCT 1.0>0[1.0]
7H BET-OOK OCT 1.0>0[1.0]
7H BET-TNK OCT 0.0>1.4[0]
7H BET-VAK OCT 1.3>0.9[0.9]
7H BET-WTL OCT 3>1.4[2]
7H BET-WWT OCT 1.4>0[1.4]
7H CHU-CKD OCT 0.4>0.7[0.4]
7H CKD-RDV OCT 0.2>0.4[0.2]
7H EEK-WTL OCT 0.0>1.4[0.4]
7H GAL-KAL OCT 0.7>1.0[1.0]
7H GAL-NUL OCT 0.7>1.0[1.0]
7H GAM-OME OCT 1.0>1.4[0.9]
7H GAM-SVA OCT 1.0>1.4[0.9]
7H HPB-SCM OCT 1.3>0.9[0.9]
7H KAL-NUL OCT 0.7>1.0[1.0]
7H KKA-SKK OCT 1.0>1.4[1.0]
7H KKA-UNK OCT 1.0>1.4[1.0]
7H KPN-KWK OCT 0.5>0[0.5]
7H KTS-TLA OCT 0.9>0[0]
7H KWN-TOG OCT 0.8>0[0]
7H MYU-NME OCT 0.0>1.0[0]
7H NME-TNK OCT 1.0>0[1.0]
7H OME-SKK OCT 0.4>0[0.4]
7H OME-SVA OCT 1.0>1.4[0.9]
7H OME-TLA OCT 0.9>0[0]
7H OME-WBB OCT 1.4>1.7[1.4]
7H OOK-TNK OCT 0.5>1.4[0.4]
7H RDV-SLQ OCT 0.2>0.4[0.2]
7H SLQ-SRV OCT 0.2>0.4[0.2]
7H TNK-WWT OCT 1.4>0[1.4]
7H UNK-WBB OCT 0.9>0.5[0.9]

AA CLE-JFK MAY 1.9>1.5[2.0]
Well now it's completely gone
*AA JFK-MCO JUN 1.7>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 2>0[2] OCT 2>0[2] NOV 2>0[1.9]
AA JFK-ORF MAY 1.0>0.5[2]
AA JFK-SAT MAY 1.0>0.5[0]
AA LGA-PHL JUN 2>3[3] JUL 2>3[3] AUG 2>3[3]

AC BDL-YUL MAR 1.0>0.7[3]

AD MCO-VCP JUL 1.4>1.7[1.0]

AS ANC-DUT JUN 3>2[3]
AS BZN-PDX JUL 2>1.5[2]
AS LAX-PDX JUN 7>8[8] JUL 7>8[8] AUG 7>8[7]
AS LAX-SFO JUN 10>11[12] JUL 10>11[12] AUG 10>11[10]
AS PDX-SEA JUL 19>18[25]
AS SEA-SJC JUN 7>8[7] JUL 7>8[7] AUG 7>8[7]
AS SEA-STS JUN 1.8>1.0[2] JUL 2>1.5[2]

AT BOS-CMN JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.5[0] SEP 0>0.4[0] OCT 0>0.4[0]

AV GUA-JFK APR 1.0>0.5[0]
AV GUA-LAX APR 2>1.0[1.0]
AV GUA-ORD APR 1.0>0.5[0]

B6 BOS-PHL SEP 6>7[5] OCT 5>6[5]

DL ATL-BTV JUN 1.0>1.8[1.0]
DL ATL-GPT SEP 5>4[4]
*DL ATL-OAK AUG 0.3>0.6[0.3] SEP 0>0.6[0] OCT 0>0.5[0] NOV 0>0.6[0]
DL ATL-SFO OCT 9>8[7] NOV 8>7[6]
DL BOI-LAX JUN 1.0>1.8[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0] OCT 1.0>2[1.0] NOV 1.0>2.0[1.0]
DL BUR-SLC SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>5[4] NOV 4>5[4]
DL DLH-MSP JUL 5>6[5] AUG 5>6[5] SEP 5>7[5] OCT 5>7[5]
DL DTW-LEX JUL 4>3[4] AUG 5>4[4]
DL DTW-RSW SEP 1.0>2[1.2]
DL DTW-TPA SEP 3>4[3]
DL LAS-LAX JUL 8>7[8] AUG 8>7[8] SEP 8>7[8]
DL LAX-RDU AUG 1.6>1.3[1.5] SEP 1.5>1.0[1.4] OCT 1.4>1.0[1.3] NOV 1.4>1.0[1.3]
DL MCO-MSP SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]
DL MSP-TUL OCT 1.6>2[1.7] NOV 1.7>2[1.5]
DL PSC-SEA JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3] SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3] NOV 3>4[3]
DL PSP-SLC SEP 2>3[3] OCT 2>3[3]
DL SEA-YYJ JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>1.9[3] SEP 3>1.6[3] OCT 3>2[3] NOV 3>2.0[3]

F8 AZA-YEG MAR 0.1>0.5[0]
F8 AZA-YWG MAR 0.1>0.3[0]
F8 LAS-YEG MAR 0.2>0.5[0]
F8 LAS-YWG MAR 0.1>0.3[0]
F8 MCO-YEG MAR 0.1>0.3[0]
F8 MCO-YWG MAR 0.1>0.3[0]
F8 MIA-YWG MAR 0.1>0.3[0]
F8 MIA-YYZ MAR 0.1>0.3[0]
F8 PIE-YWG MAR 0.1>0.3[0]
F8 PSP-YEG MAR 0.1>0.5[0]

G4 BLI-TUS MAY 0.3>0[0] JUN 0.3>0[0] JUL 0.3>0[0]

JJ FOR-MIA NOV 0.1>0.7[0.4]
JJ MIA-REC NOV 0.1>0.3[0.3]

LF LAS-SBA MAY 1.9>1.5[0]
LF OAK-SBA MAY 1.9>1.5[0]

NK BDL-MYR MAY 1.0>1.3[1.1] JUN 1.0>1.3[1.2] JUL 1.0>1.3[1.5] AUG 1.0>1.3[1.4]
NK MCO-PHL MAY 2>3[2] JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 2>3[2]

PR MNL-SFO APR 2>1.0[1.4] MAY 2>1.0[1.5] JUN 2>1.0[1.4] JUL 2>1.0[1.4] AUG 2>1.0[1.3] SEP 2>1.0[1.0] OCT 1.8>1.0[1.0]

SY ANC-LAS AUG 0.4>0.6[0]
SY ANC-MSP AUG 1.2>1.6[1.4]
SY AUS-MSP AUG 0.3>0.6[0.4]
SY BNA-LAX AUG 0.4>0.6[0]
SY BNA-MSP AUG 0.4>0.5[0]
SY BNA-PDX AUG 0.4>0.6[0]
SY BNA-PVD AUG 0.4>0.6[0]
SY BOS-MSP AUG 0.6>1.0[1.9]
SY CUN-DFW AUG 1.1>1.3[1.4]
SY DEN-MSP AUG 1.0>1.6[0.9]
SY DFW-LAS AUG 0.6>0.8[0.5]
SY EWR-MSP AUG 0.6>1.0[0]
SY HNL-LAX AUG 0.6>0.8[0.7]
SY HNL-SFO AUG 0.4>0.6[0]
SY IAD-MSP AUG 0.5>0.7[0]
SY LAS-MSP AUG 1.3>2[1.8] SEP 0>0.3[3]
SY LAS-PDX AUG 0.4>0.6[0]
SY LAX-MSP AUG 1.8>3[3] SEP 0>0.3[1.9]
SY MCO-MSP AUG 0.7>1.0[1.0]
SY MSP-ORD AUG 0.6>1.0[0]
SY MSP-PDX AUG 0.6>1.0[1.4]
SY MSP-PHL AUG 0.5>0.7[0]
SY MSP-PHX AUG 0>0.4[0.5]
SY MSP-PVD AUG 0.4>0.6[0]
SY MSP-RSW AUG 0.6>0.9[0.9]
SY MSP-SAN AUG 0.6>0.9[1.0]
SY MSP-SAT AUG 0.4>0.6[0]
SY MSP-SBA AUG 0.4>0.6[0.2]
SY MSP-SEA AUG 1.2>1.9[3] SEP 0>0.2[1.3]
SY MSP-SFO AUG 1.4>2[2] SEP 0>0.2[1.3]
SY MSP-SMF AUG 0.4>0.6[0]
SY MSP-STL AUG 0.4>0.6[0]
SY PDX-SAT AUG 0.4>0.6[0]
SY PDX-SFO AUG 0.4>0.6[0]

UA ANC-IAH AUG 0.6>0.8[0.6]
UA EWR-MBJ JUN 1.4>1.8[1.1]
UA EWR-MYR JUN 1.9>1.5[1.1]
UA EWR-PLS JUN 0.8>1.0[0.6]
UA EWR-PUJ JUN 3>4[2]
UA EWR-TVC JUN 0.4>0.8[0.3]
UA FAI-ORD OCT 0.3>0.1[0]
UA IAH-MGA JUN 0.9>0.6[1.7] JUL 1.0>0.6[1.0] AUG 1.0>0.5[0.8] SEP 1.0>0.6[0.5] OCT 1.0>0.6[0.4]
UA IAH-PVR MAY 1.1>1.4[1.1]
UA IAH-SYD APR 1.0>0.6[1.0] MAY 1.0>0.6[1.0] JUN 1.0>0.6[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.6[1.0] AUG 1.0>0.5[0.6] SEP 1.0>0.6[0.7] OCT 1.0>0.6[0.9]
UA LAX-RDM JUN 1.0>1.5[1.0]
UA LAX-SEA JUN 2>3[2]
UA LAX-SYD APR 1.0>0.4[1.0] MAY 1.0>0.4[1.0] JUN 1.0>0.4[1.0] JUL 1.0>0.4[1.0] AUG 1.0>0.5[0.9] SEP 1.0>0.4[0.9] OCT 1.0>0.5[1.0]

WN BOS-MCO APR 0.1>0.4[0.5]
WN BUF-TPA APR 2>3[2]
WN CMH-RSW APR 1.6>2[1.5]
WN HOU-PIT APR 1.0>1.7[1.0]
WN HOU-SAN APR 2>3[2]
WN HOU-SJC APR 1.0>1.6[0.8]
WN IND-RSW APR 2>3[1.8]
WN MCO-PHL APR 3>4[3]
WN MCO-ROC APR 1.0>1.7[1.2]
WN RNO-SAN APR 2>3[2]
WN RSW-STL APR 1.8>2[1.6]

YR BLD-GCW MAR 0>0.3[0.7] NOV 0>0.9[0.1]
YR GCN-PGA APR 0>1.0[0.7] MAY 0>1.0[0.7] JUN 0>1.0[0.7] JUL 0>1.0[0.7] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0]
 
B757capt
Posts: 1394
Joined: Mon Feb 09, 2004 7:11 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:17 pm

enilria wrote:
Well now it's completely gone
*AA JFK-MCO JUN 1.7>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 2>0[2] OCT 2>0[2] NOV 2>0[1.9]


No surprises here. MCO and SFB have had huge grow in NS options to Europe. Without high yield connections over JFK the only thing left is NS traffic. Both B6, WN, and recently DL have had basement fare structures to MCO. Add F9 from ISP and this market isn’t one AA stood around to be beat up in.

My guess is these aircraft get redeployed to more DFW or CLT flying.
The views written by this user are in no manner the views of my employer and should not be thought as such.
 
mtnwest1979
Posts: 2211
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:23 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:18 pm

Thanks for all you do!
Biggest thrill for me this week is DL doubling BOI-LAX.
Riddle: Which lasts longer, a start-up airline or a start-up football league?
 
rainaviation2
Posts: 98
Joined: Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:44 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:25 pm

Thank you for this as always!

DL DLH-MSP JUL 5>6[5] AUG 5>6[5] SEP 5>7[5] OCT 5>7[5]

I wonder if this has anything to do with AA starting DLH-ORD?
 
Chuska
Posts: 213
Joined: Mon May 24, 2010 4:59 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:26 pm

Looks like YR BLD-GCW is a misprint, I would think BLD-GCN. Thanks Enirilia!
 
usairways85
Posts: 4024
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 11:59 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:33 pm

enilria wrote:
B6 BOS-PHL SEP 6>7[5] OCT 5>6[5]

Looks like B6 is ready for the battle. Upping frequency since DL entered the market. And last week it was reported that Delta will go from 5>4 a day starting in July.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4375
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:01 pm

JFK-MCO. NYC to orlando is ultra competative. AA doesn't seem interested in flying routes for the network anymore. If they are not making money they will be rightsized. We all know the yields were just too low and with the Europe connections and MCO having even more of its own, makes sense. There is a small chance this comes back for winter
 
klm617
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:16 pm

rainaviation2 wrote:
Thank you for this as always!

DL DLH-MSP JUL 5>6[5] AUG 5>6[5] SEP 5>7[5] OCT 5>7[5]

I wonder if this has anything to do with AA starting DLH-ORD?


Would have thought if they effectively wanted to compete against AA on DLH-ORD they should have added DTW-DLH instead of upping MSP-DLH which they already serve.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
C010T3
Posts: 1956
Joined: Wed Jul 19, 2006 5:48 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:18 pm

Is now JFK-BOS the last AA route at JFK that is at the same time domestic, non-hub and within the LGA perimeter?
 
HNL
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:24 pm

DCA CLE IND CMH just to name a few....
HNL - There's no place like it!
 
N292UX
Posts: 423
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:27 pm

I'm stumped about what AA wants to to at JFK. They just announced a $300+ million renovation on T8, yet they keep cutting flights from JFK. Do they intend on cutting more markets from JFK, despite having the new facility, or do they plan on actually adding frequencies/markets from JFK?
 
iyerhari
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Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2013 4:25 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:41 pm

HNL wrote:
DCA CLE IND CMH just to name a few....

DCA is an AA hub. PIT, ORF, YUL, CVG etc are others... ultimately I think it maybe only the AA hubs from and to JFK.
 
stlgph
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:50 pm

N292UX wrote:
I'm stumped about what AA wants to to at JFK. They just announced a $300+ million renovation on T8, yet they keep cutting flights from JFK. Do they intend on cutting more markets from JFK, despite having the new facility, or do they plan on actually adding frequencies/markets from JFK?


Be an excellent landlord of an excellent facility in one of the most coveted airports. Scratch a lot of backs and get yours scratched in return in other places.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
grbauc
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:55 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
JFK-MCO. NYC to orlando is ultra competative. AA doesn't seem interested in flying routes for the network anymore. If they are not making money they will be rightsized. We all know the yields were just too low and with the Europe connections and MCO having even more of its own, makes sense. There is a small chance this comes back for winter


They will just make people run tru CLT on bargain fares if they want to go AA JFK To MCO
 
mtnwest1979
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Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:23 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:22 pm

Chuska wrote:
Looks like YR BLD-GCW is a misprint, I would think BLD-GCN. Thanks Enirilia!


Well GCW is Grand Canyon West, serving the Skywalk. So probably not an error I would guess.
Riddle: Which lasts longer, a start-up airline or a start-up football league?
 
MSPNWA
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:28 pm

rainaviation2 wrote:
DL DLH-MSP JUL 5>6[5] AUG 5>6[5] SEP 5>7[5] OCT 5>7[5]

I wonder if this has anything to do with AA starting DLH-ORD?


Has to be. Too much of a coincidence. It is a little interesting though considering that DL didn't seem to care when UA started RST-ORD. This time it appears they do.
 
C010T3
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:36 pm

HNL wrote:
DCA CLE IND CMH just to name a few....


Sorry, I meant mainline.
 
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bluefltspecial
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 9:15 pm

enilria wrote:
*AA JFK-MCO JUN 1.7>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 2>0[2] OCT 2>0[2] NOV 2>0[1.9]


While I'm sure this makes some financial sense to them with others leading market share on this route, there is a higher business market on this route than most expect. Last minute tickets up front routinely go for $1k USD.

I am curious, however, with all the drops that AA has done in the past year or two, what happens to their slots at JFK? Are they use "them or lose them?" Or is there some time length waiver, or does someone have to petition to get them?

That new(ish) beautiful terminal they have is going completely unused for most of the day. Is it silly to think maybe they should think about trying to get some other airlines in there to at least rent the facilities and make some money off it?
Save a horse, ride a Fly-boy....
 
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enilria
Topic Author
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 9:38 pm

Chuska wrote:
Looks like YR BLD-GCW is a misprint, I would think BLD-GCN. Thanks Enirilia!


They filed it like that. GCW is an airport near GCN. Idk.


Thanks to everybody for the thank yous!
 
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jfklganyc
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Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 9:55 pm

Look beyond MCO. ORF CLE SAT have almost no frequency

2020 will be the year we see complete capitulation for AA at JFK.

I think everything goes outside of hubs (partner and domestic), a few RJ cities, and select west coast stuff

Death watch routes for AA at JFK:

MXP
FCO
LAS
SAT
AUS

Next round

SEA and SAN

It is obvious now.
 
musman9853
Posts: 772
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:11 pm

sorry, i dont completely understand. As i Read this, AA is completely cancelling all jfk-mco flights? am i misreading this?
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:19 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Look beyond MCO. ORF CLE SAT have almost no frequency

2020 will be the year we see complete capitulation for AA at JFK.

I think everything goes outside of hubs (partner and domestic), a few RJ cities, and select west coast stuff

Death watch routes for AA at JFK:

MXP
FCO
LAS
SAT
AUS

Next round

SEA and SAN

It is obvious now.


SAT hasn't even started yet......
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B747forever
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:31 pm

musman9853 wrote:
sorry, i dont completely understand. As i Read this, AA is completely cancelling all jfk-mco flights? am i misreading this?


That is correct. AA will stop flying JFK-MCO.
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
Cointrin330
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:42 pm

bluefltspecial wrote:
enilria wrote:
*AA JFK-MCO JUN 1.7>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 2>0[2] OCT 2>0[2] NOV 2>0[1.9]


While I'm sure this makes some financial sense to them with others leading market share on this route, there is a higher business market on this route than most expect. Last minute tickets up front routinely go for $1k USD.

I am curious, however, with all the drops that AA has done in the past year or two, what happens to their slots at JFK? Are they use "them or lose them?" Or is there some time length waiver, or does someone have to petition to get them?

That new(ish) beautiful terminal they have is going completely unused for most of the day. Is it silly to think maybe they should think about trying to get some other airlines in there to at least rent the facilities and make some money off it?


Terminal 8 is arguably the best facility at JFK at the moment. It's huge, somewhat underutilized, owned by American Airlines, and has some room to grow and it has been adding airlines. Cathay Pacific and Qantas moved over from T7 already, Qatar will likely operate both of its JFK flights to DOH before too long from T8, and BA and likely IB, will move over to T8 in 2022. I can also see Aer Lingus move as well, from T5, if it becomes a full airline within oneworld.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:43 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Look beyond MCO. ORF CLE SAT have almost no frequency

2020 will be the year we see complete capitulation for AA at JFK.

I think everything goes outside of hubs (partner and domestic), a few RJ cities, and select west coast stuff

Death watch routes for AA at JFK:

MXP
FCO
LAS
SAT
AUS

Next round

FCO is seasonal only. I can see MXP move to PHL (or stay, if Air Italy exits the market).
SEA and SAN

It is obvious now.
 
Alias1024
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:58 pm

Nothing for Y4?

Local media has been reporting Volaris will add twice weekly ABQ-CUU.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:59 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Look beyond MCO. ORF CLE SAT have almost no frequency

2020 will be the year we see complete capitulation for AA at JFK.

I think everything goes outside of hubs (partner and domestic), a few RJ cities, and select west coast stuff

Death watch routes for AA at JFK:

MXP
FCO
LAS
SAT
AUS

Next round

SEA and SAN

It is obvious now.


Agreed. I can't see CDG lasting much longer either. No feed on either end. And it really doesn't make sense for them to continue MAD. Just let Iberia take it over.
 
ericm2031
Posts: 1070
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:14 pm

Looks like UA is adding mainline to LAX-SEA and even going up to 4x daily over the summer.
 
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FA9295
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:15 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
Nothing for Y4?

Local media has been reporting Volaris will add twice weekly ABQ-CUU.

enilria doesn't post them here until the flights are in the OAG/GDS systems.

It may be announced, but it won't be listed here until the flight is actually bookable.
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 5428
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:17 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Look beyond MCO. ORF CLE SAT have almost no frequency

2020 will be the year we see complete capitulation for AA at JFK.

I think everything goes outside of hubs (partner and domestic), a few RJ cities, and select west coast stuff

Death watch routes for AA at JFK:

MXP
FCO
LAS
SAT
AUS

Next round

SEA and SAN

It is obvious now.


SAT hasn't even started yet......


Like DEN it will last a season
 
musman9853
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Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:30 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:19 am

B747forever wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
sorry, i dont completely understand. As i Read this, AA is completely cancelling all jfk-mco flights? am i misreading this?


That is correct. AA will stop flying JFK-MCO.


well, as an aadvantage member living in orlando that is bad news lol. do you happen to know when they will stop?
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
UpNAWAy
Posts: 517
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:28 am

N292UX wrote:
I'm stumped about what AA wants to to at JFK. They just announced a $300+ million renovation on T8, yet they keep cutting flights from JFK. Do they intend on cutting more markets from JFK, despite having the new facility, or do they plan on actually adding frequencies/markets from JFK?


I think AA will add flights that makes sense and cut ones that do not. It's not some big mystery.
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:58 am

musman9853 wrote:
B747forever wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
sorry, i dont completely understand. As i Read this, AA is completely cancelling all jfk-mco flights? am i misreading this?


That is correct. AA will stop flying JFK-MCO.


well, as an aadvantage member living in orlando that is bad news lol. do you happen to know when they will stop?


Unless your final destination is somewhere on Long Island, this shouldn't make too much of a difference... There will still be a daily flight on MCO-LGA, and you can connect to any AA European destination currently served though JFK via CLT, PHL, or MIA.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
UpNAWAy
Posts: 517
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:42 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:17 am

AA has 27% more NYC flights now than pre merger. No huge reduction is happening despite the constant claims here. I expect once BA is in terminal 8 and the renovations complete we will start seeing some modest growth at JFK.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:22 am

UpNAWAy wrote:
AA has 27% more NYC flights now than pre merger. No huge reduction is happening despite the constant claims here. I expect once BA is in terminal 8 and the renovations complete we will start seeing some modest growth at JFK.


Uh, yeah from LGA and EWR where AA and US combined ops.
 
avi8
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:50 am

ericm2031 wrote:
Looks like UA is adding mainline to LAX-SEA and even going up to 4x daily over the summer.


I’m also seeing 4 daily LAS with mainline. I always thought it was 3 daily. Could we be seeing a conservative UA comeback?
avi8

Medschool student
 
Austin787
Posts: 380
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2016 11:39 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:19 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Look beyond MCO. ORF CLE SAT have almost no frequency

2020 will be the year we see complete capitulation for AA at JFK.

I think everything goes outside of hubs (partner and domestic), a few RJ cities, and select west coast stuff

Death watch routes for AA at JFK:

MXP
FCO
LAS
SAT
AUS

Next round

SEA and SAN

It is obvious now.


Agreed. I can't see CDG lasting much longer either. No feed on either end. And it really doesn't make sense for them to continue MAD. Just let Iberia take it over.

Once AA and BA are both in Terminal 8, I don't expect AA to keep JFK-LHR on its own metal. Just defer to BA.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5578
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:20 am

klm617 wrote:
rainaviation2 wrote:
Thank you for this as always!

DL DLH-MSP JUL 5>6[5] AUG 5>6[5] SEP 5>7[5] OCT 5>7[5]

I wonder if this has anything to do with AA starting DLH-ORD?


Would have thought if they effectively wanted to compete against AA on DLH-ORD they should have added DTW-DLH instead of upping MSP-DLH which they already serve.


What, for the 2.2 people a day that constitute DLH-DTW O&D? What's the PDEW from DLH to each of the relatively few destinations served from DTW and not MSP? More frequency to MSP is fine.
 
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Super80Fan
Posts: 1602
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:12 am

B757capt wrote:
enilria wrote:
Well now it's completely gone
*AA JFK-MCO JUN 1.7>0[2] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 2>0[2] OCT 2>0[2] NOV 2>0[1.9]


No surprises here. MCO and SFB have had huge grow in NS options to Europe. Without high yield connections over JFK the only thing left is NS traffic. Both B6, WN, and recently DL have had basement fare structures to MCO. Add F9 from ISP and this market isn’t one AA stood around to be beat up in.

My guess is these aircraft get redeployed to more DFW or CLT flying.


This is probably also since AA serves LGA-MCO.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
RIP US Airways
 
lowfareair
Posts: 259
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2016 4:40 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:21 am

UpNAWAy wrote:
AA has 27% more NYC flights now than pre merger.


How much of an increase in combined AA+US flights though?
 
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fbgdavidson
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:39 am

Well, the JFK-MCO is a real personal loss for me. The wife and I have taken that afternoon/evening flight on a Friday every couple of months for the last few years. The timings have slowly become less and less convenient and we've had to fly back into LGA for evening flights since about 2016 as opposed to our preferred JFK. We've strayed to B6 more and more, which is disappointing given their lack of premium cabin and we love AA Flagship Lounge at JFK, but the wife will be cold and dead by the time I drag her onto a DL flight again...

Just booked another trip to Orlando this afternoon for early March....flying down on B6 and back on AA into LGA. At least the onboard service on B6 is reasonably jolly and T5 is quite pleasant to fly out of with TSA PreCheck.
"My first job was selling doors, door to door, that's a tough job innit" - Bill Bailey
 
pbodyphoto
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Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:00 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:51 am

C010T3 wrote:
Is now JFK-BOS the last AA route at JFK that is at the same time domestic, non-hub and within the LGA perimeter?


AA still operates JFK to BWI, CVG, CLE, CMH, IND, BNA, ORF, PIT, and RDU. All non hub and all within the LGA perimeter. If you are asking about mainline then yes it appears that you are correct.
 
ericm2031
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:34 am

avi8 wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
Looks like UA is adding mainline to LAX-SEA and even going up to 4x daily over the summer.


I’m also seeing 4 daily LAS with mainline. I always thought it was 3 daily. Could we be seeing a conservative UA comeback?


I actually see 6 daily LAS mainline looking at June 14th.

They might just be reallocating the E75 fleet elsewhere, like EUG-ORD, RDM-ORD, LAX-EUG, LAX-MSN, LAX-RAP, SFO-RAP, SFO-PAE, DEN-PAE

LAX-SMF is showing all CRJ and mainline is added toLAX-YVR,
 
mcogator
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:22 am

JFK saw the biggest decrease in pax in the top 10 destinations from MCO, falling from #4 to #7. There will still be 12 daily NS flights on other airlines from MCO after this deletion by AA.

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YYZORD
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:35 am

You forgot YYZ & YUL

pbodyphoto wrote:
C010T3 wrote:
Is now JFK-BOS the last AA route at JFK that is at the same time domestic, non-hub and within the LGA perimeter?


AA still operates JFK to BWI, CVG, CLE, CMH, IND, BNA, ORF, PIT, and RDU. All non hub and all within the LGA perimeter. If you are asking about mainline then yes it appears that you are correct.
 
ckfred
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:49 am

C010T3 wrote:
Is now JFK-BOS the last AA route at JFK that is at the same time domestic, non-hub and within the LGA perimeter?


AA still has two daily round-trips on ORD-JFK. Although, my wife flew to ORD-ATH last fall, which had her changing planes at PHL.

But, as AA reduces the number of domestic cities served out of JFK, what happens to the slots? Service to LAX is all but hourly now.

Some elsewhere suggested that SEA-JFK would be on the way out. Assuming that Amazon decides to stay with Long Island City location for one of its East Coast headquarters, there will be a lot of business travel between New York and Seattle. That market won't be just leisure travelers sailing on Alaska cruises.
 
tys777
Moderator
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:23 am

[url][/url]
rainaviation2 wrote:
Thank you for this as always!

DL DLH-MSP JUL 5>6[5] AUG 5>6[5] SEP 5>7[5] OCT 5>7[5]

I wonder if this has anything to do with AA starting DLH-ORD?


I don't think so, but only the route planners really know. Looks like All they are doing is restoring frequency from a couple years ago. One of them is the 2nd ron that departs st 7am and the other is another afternoon departure.

It'd be nice to get mainline at some point like back in the day, but I'm sure it'll happen eventually
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:29 am

Austin787 wrote:
I don't expect AA to keep JFK-LHR on its own metal. Just defer to BA.
TTailedTiger wrote:
it really doesn't make sense for them to continue MAD. Just let Iberia take it over.

J/V agreements don't work like that.

Yes BA and IB can take over some flights for AA; but to sate both labor and regulators, these type of collaborations have reciprocity agreements between seats and frequencies, or offer equivalent ops to company labor on other routes.

Thus if BA/IB take over more than a half-dozen flights from AA at JFK, that means that AA has to either take over routes from them elsewhere in the system, offer AA labor the equivalent of a half-dozen longhauls elsewhere in the system, or some combination of both. And while that's certainly possible, one would doubt that AA wants to launch that much longhaul capacity all at once in the current market.

That, and with BA still recovering from their 2018 fleet crunch, and IB having a limited fleet to begin with, it's doubtful they'd rather sending all that additional capacity to JFK when AA is perfectly fine doing it themselves.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:40 pm

I took a look at the American Eagle operation out of JFK compared to last year and the year before. Pretty much everything else went from 50 seaters to 44 seaters. With the high operating cost of 44 seaters and beyond perimter routes getting cut left and right, I don't see how the MQ operation stays at current level. Not a surprise they are converting the eagle gates to a new widebody gate for BA.

AA started off by cutting some bad routes, which caused their relevance in JFK to drop and then some people to jump board. Now, routes that were marginal have started to bleed money. Would be interesting to see how much more go by this point next year. More and more routes will become marginal or loosing money as they cut more under performing routes.
 
pbodyphoto
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:00 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/10/2019:AA Exits JFK-MCO; DL Extends ATL-OAK

Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:42 pm

YYZORD wrote:
You forgot YYZ & YUL

pbodyphoto wrote:
C010T3 wrote:
Is now JFK-BOS the last AA route at JFK that is at the same time domestic, non-hub and within the LGA perimeter?


AA still operates JFK to BWI, CVG, CLE, CMH, IND, BNA, ORF, PIT, and RDU. All non hub and all within the LGA perimeter. If you are asking about mainline then yes it appears that you are correct.


Since when did YYZ and YUL become domestic?

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