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jeffrey0032j
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Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:02 pm

Some not too unexpected news from Reuters. While this has been discussed in several other threads, I think it deserves its own thread. Mods, please close this thread if there are any duplication.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1PW2GE

Barring a surprise agreement to prop up the A380, Airbus is preparing to close production of the double-decker earlier than planned and could make a detailed announcement as early as its annual results on Feb 14, people familiar with the matter said.

“It is the end of the A380,” an industry source said.
Last edited by atcsundevil on Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Title updated
 
hitower3
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:10 pm

Hello,

Whilie this - if confirmed - is not at all a surprise, it is still a rather sad moment for Airbus and aviation industry in general.

Farewell, big whale!
Hendric
 
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ER757
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:13 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Some not too unexpected news from Reuters. While this has been discussed in several other threads, I think it deserves its own thread. Mods, please close this thread if there are any duplication.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1PW2GE

Barring a surprise agreement to prop up the A380, Airbus is preparing to close production of the double-decker earlier than planned and could make a detailed announcement as early as its annual results on Feb 14, people familiar with the matter said.

“It is the end of the A380,” an industry source said.

I usually don't comment on rumor threads, but Reuters is a pretty reputable organization and it's not like them to publish wild speculation. I do hope they're wrong in this case though. As a fan of very large flying machines, it would be a sad day for me if the Big Bus was put out to pasture
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:18 pm

I thought Airbus was working with EK on another order?
 
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Polot
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:20 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
I thought Airbus was working with EK on another order?

EK and Airbus are in discussions about possibly converting some of their A380 orders to A350s (or A330s). It is not entirely clear who initially prompted the negotiations.
 
ikramerica
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:30 pm

Without a NEO no model survives 20 years. It’s not that the A380 didn’t last long, it’s that it could never achieve the sales numbers it needed to make sense.

Back during the launch phase, many of us accurately dismissed Airbus numbers regarding market size, because even then we knew that they were not accounting for the fact that most 747s were bought fir range and cargo ability, not passenger count. With smaller twins available with 747 range and cargo ability, building a bigger quad with comparably less usable cargo space was not meeting the replacement market in the way Airbus was projecting. This was borne out over 17 years with the A380s limited role as a 747 replacement, instead selling mostly to EK, a carrier with a unique business model who never flew 747s to begin with.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
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American 767
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:40 pm

Not only it's the end of the A380, it's the end of Airbus quads. The A340 is already out of production, and I don't think Airbus will ever design a new quad after the A380.

They will make Boeing's day when they will officially announce the end of the production line. Although Boeing also has a tough time selling the 747-8i, they haven't yet officially announced the end of the Queen. Boeing will be thinking that some airlines could change their mind.
Ben Soriano
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:43 pm

American 767 wrote:
Not only it's the end of the A380, it's the end of Airbus quads. The A340 is already out of production, and I don't think Airbus will ever design a new quad after the A380.

They will make Boeing's day when they will officially announce the end of the production line. Although Boeing also has a tough time selling the 747-8i, they haven't yet officially announced the end of the Queen. Boeing will be thinking that some airlines could change their mind.

Boeing won't be thinking so, they have given up on the 747-8i, but the cargo version has its own niche that the A380 couldn't cover.
 
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Erebus
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:54 pm

American 767 wrote:
They will make Boeing's day when they will officially announce the end of the production line.


Perhaps for bragging rights, yes. But deep down, I think Boeing would have been happy with Airbus being preoccupied with such a money pit that has been a drag on its resources. One has to wonder what they have to contend with afterwards.
 
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American 767
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:55 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
American 767 wrote:
Not only it's the end of the A380, it's the end of Airbus quads. The A340 is already out of production, and I don't think Airbus will ever design a new quad after the A380.

They will make Boeing's day when they will officially announce the end of the production line. Although Boeing also has a tough time selling the 747-8i, they haven't yet officially announced the end of the Queen. Boeing will be thinking that some airlines could change their mind.

Boeing won't be thinking so, they have given up on the 747-8i, but the cargo version has its own niche that the A380 couldn't cover.


Yes, you are right about the Freighter version. Boeing still has chances of selling more of those.
Ben Soriano
 
legend500
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:56 pm

Süddeutsche Zeitung's now reporting that "Auf dem Papier gibt es noch Bestellungen für 26 weitere A380, realistisch davon sind aber nur drei für die japanische All Nippon Airways." So if Emirates pulls its order, although we guessed the order book has plenty of ghost planes, the situation is worse than we thought - actually only 3 A380s on the books are firm orders. It seems as though the queen will reign.

I'm pulling from a database so the only link I have is the citation. 2019 WLNR 4192775
 
Mat1776
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:02 pm

American 767 wrote:
Not only it's the end of the A380, it's the end of Airbus quads.

Aside from the A400M, that is.
 
TropicalSky
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:16 pm

 
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Channex757
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:28 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Some not too unexpected news from Reuters. While this has been discussed in several other threads, I think it deserves its own thread. Mods, please close this thread if there are any duplication.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1PW2GE

Barring a surprise agreement to prop up the A380, Airbus is preparing to close production of the double-decker earlier than planned and could make a detailed announcement as early as its annual results on Feb 14, people familiar with the matter said.

“It is the end of the A380,” an industry source said.

This is nearly a week old, not some fresh news story. It was posted when QF did their cancellation.

Remarkably short on detail too although much of this story is going to be behind the scenes. A decision has to come and sooner rather than later. Airbus could use the A380 construction spaces to open another A350 line and solve the logjam of orders.
 
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:28 pm

legend500 wrote:
Süddeutsche Zeitung's now reporting that "Auf dem Papier gibt es noch Bestellungen für 26 weitere A380, realistisch davon sind aber nur drei für die japanische All Nippon Airways." So if Emirates pulls its order, although we guessed the order book has plenty of ghost planes, the situation is worse than we thought - actually only 3 A380s on the books are firm orders. It seems as though the queen will reign.

I'm pulling from a database so the only link I have is the citation. 2019 WLNR 4192775



translation
Auf dem Papier gibt es noch Bestellungen für 26 weitere A380, realistisch davon sind aber nur drei für die japanische All Nippon Airways.

There are still orders for 26 more A380s on the paper, but only three of them are realistic for the Japanese All Nippon Airways.

YIKES they have zero time left to sell more if this is true.
 
airbazar
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:34 pm

Lost in all of this is the fact that she's been in commercial ops for 12 years and it has at least that many more years ahead. A ~25 year lifespan isn't too shabby even if it didn't sell that many.
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:34 pm

Channex757 wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
Some not too unexpected news from Reuters. While this has been discussed in several other threads, I think it deserves its own thread. Mods, please close this thread if there are any duplication.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1PW2GE

Barring a surprise agreement to prop up the A380, Airbus is preparing to close production of the double-decker earlier than planned and could make a detailed announcement as early as its annual results on Feb 14, people familiar with the matter said.

“It is the end of the A380,” an industry source said.

This is nearly a week old, not some fresh news story. It was posted when QF did their cancellation.

Remarkably short on detail too although much of this story is going to be behind the scenes. A decision has to come and sooner rather than later. Airbus could use the A380 construction spaces to open another A350 line and solve the logjam of orders.

There isn't really a logjam of orders for the A350. They were considering a rate increase for some time but this hasn't been decided yet and it is just based on current orders and production facilities. I read it as the orders aren't coming fast enough yet to justify that rate increase, additional hangar space won't help in this case.

The sweet spot of the widebody market for the past 15 years has been the A330/787 segment, though that market segment is now with Boeing.
 
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seahawk
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:41 pm

The new leadership probably wanted that big problem off the table.
 
Rbgso
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:48 pm

Sad day for aviation lovers if true. She always looked a little bulbous to me, but no question it was an engineering success. Commercially, obviously not.
 
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:51 pm

Erebus wrote:
But deep down, I think Boeing would have been happy with Airbus being preoccupied with such a money pit that has been a drag on its resources. One has to wonder what they have to contend with afterwards.


Absolutely! Boeing was lucky that Airbus was bogged down with developing the A380 and A340NG while they themselves were massively screwing up the 787 development. If Airbus had had the resources to respond quickly with a clean-sheet product to match or beat the 787, that disaster might have brought Boeing down. Instead, thanks to constrained development resources, Airbus trotted out several A350 iterations that were little more than warmed-over A330s and the customer response was vocal and negative. Boeing got several years of breathing room and the A350 came to market probably half a decade later than it should have.
 
lavalampluva
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:01 pm

I've never had the pleasure of flying on an A380, but it looks and sounds like an incredible aircraft. But IMO it's too much aircraft for today. There aren't a lot of air carriers who could fill one economically.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
Turnhouse1
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:06 pm

Sad if true, it's a great plane to fly on, even if the number of routes it's economic on are limited.

Obvious projects for Airbus to focus on short term would be.

A350-1100, a 316T A350 stretched to 79.9m to compete with the 777-9X, should be more efficient and still have reasonable range now they're not worried about cannibalising A380 sales.
A350-900S, a 316T A359 length plane with range for SYD-LHR to give them some bragging rights.
A320/1/2 with folding wingtips, better range for the A320/1. New stretched A322 can replace 753s and cramp the bottom of the 797 space
A220-500, for airlines wanting A320 capacity, but who don't need the weight and range.

Then longer term do a clean sheet replacement for the A330 maybe EIS 2030 to replace the A330Neo and bottom end of the A359 market.
 
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OA260
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:20 pm

Turnhouse1 wrote:
Sad if true, it's a great plane to fly on, even if the number of routes it's economic on are limited.



Totally agree love this aircraft and flying on it even better. It will indeed be a sad day.
 
ltbewr
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:20 pm

I am quite sure Airbus has put out the word to suppliers or component sites like in the UK that there will not be any more new orders as to the A 380 for them. I also wonder if the Brexit situation could be a factor here as key components are made in the UK. Still it is a sad day for avgeeks, but reality that was going to happen someday.
 
Austin787
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:57 pm

I flew on an A380 once, SYD-CHC on Emirates. Sat on on the upper deck. Nice plane. Quiet ride. Hope to add more A380 flights in the future.
 
GRIVely
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:58 pm

An article in today’s Wall Street Journal discusses how the Dubai real estate market is suffering from declining sales and serious overbuilding. Valuations of many properties have declined around 25% since 2016 and the Dubai government is being pressured to “Do Something.” What that “Something” might be is still being discussed. More properties, approximately 30,000, are coming on line in 2019 which will further depress prices.
 
jfk777
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:02 pm

IT had to end some time, sadly it didn't sell well except to one airline. It would have died much sooner if not for Emirates. Some airline Airbus thought would be buyer were not for several reasons. Airbus probably thought Japan Airlines, Cathay and Air China were going to buy it but they stayed away. Cathay and JAL love their 777-300ER & A350's( JAL starts soon) for their very long range and freight carrying ability.

The A380 was 'engineering testostaron" as Gordon Bethune once said, another airplane project for European glory that was a flop. When they get retired they will be celebrated in many aviation museums like the Concorde is today. How many billions of Euros did Airbus loose on this magnificent looking airplane ? It made a statement but not money for its maker.
 
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Aesma
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:03 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
I thought Airbus was working with EK on another order?


EK wants new better engines, and Airbus isn't an engine maker.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Bricktop
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:05 pm

It'll be a sad day when they announce the end of A380 production, but I will still have plenty of time to fly on one I hope. (Me not the A380 in-service).
 
smartplane
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:10 pm

Aesma wrote:
...................and Airbus isn't an engine maker.

Yet.
Last edited by smartplane on Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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ACCS300
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:10 pm

The A380 is a unique and amazing aircraft, Anet, I feel, never gave it the respect it deserved and seemed to be constantly predicting, and at times, hoping for it's demise.

Only flown it once, BA LHR-YVR Sept 2016 was quiet, super comfortable and spacious on lower deck Y. We're coming close to only having the choice of flying on giant twins which are looking and feeling more and more alike. The A380 stood apart, was amazing to watch, added variety and excitement to airports and flying. Really wish they'd sold a couple hundred more but the plane was an incredible feat and product, hope they keep flying another decade at least.
Last edited by ACCS300 on Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:12 pm

Article is one week old = there is no news.
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B787register
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:26 pm

The A380 is too big too late. Plus airport infrastructure has to be upgraded to accommodate her it wasn't a good move by Airbus.
The other issue is life span of these giants. We have seen two scrapped already and they where only around ten years old
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ElroyJetson
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:28 pm

Hard to continue production when there is basically only one customer.

Always thought it was an ugly plane but passengers loved it. Still a sad day.
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africawings
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:30 pm

A different take on the news. If true, Boeing will have the 4 engine Quad market all to itself.

They should then work on tweaking the 748i to be an SP aircraft. Longer range- 10,500 miles, no ETOPS restrictions, and fewer passengers- 350 in mixed-class configuration. The airlines will reassess their long term needs with this option on the market
 
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:36 pm

ScottB wrote:
Erebus wrote:
But deep down, I think Boeing would have been happy with Airbus being preoccupied with such a money pit that has been a drag on its resources. One has to wonder what they have to contend with afterwards.


Absolutely! Boeing was lucky that Airbus was bogged down with developing the A380 and A340NG while they themselves were massively screwing up the 787 development. If Airbus had had the resources to respond quickly with a clean-sheet product to match or beat the 787, that disaster might have brought Boeing down. Instead, thanks to constrained development resources, Airbus trotted out several A350 iterations that were little more than warmed-over A330s and the customer response was vocal and negative. Boeing got several years of breathing room and the A350 came to market probably half a decade later than it should have.


Boeing announced the 7E7 in 2004 which was four years after the A380. They attempted to follow the Airbus model by having their partners be more responsible for the design of components and subassemblies. In part Boeing was ferling the heat from Airbus, so they got into trouble when their partners were not up to the tasks. Boeing got back on track by taking more direct control of the project and buying up some of the contractors' facilities.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:43 pm

africawings wrote:
A different take on the news. If true, Boeing will have the 4 engine Quad market all to itself.

They should then work on tweaking the 748i to be an SP aircraft. Longer range- 10,500 miles, no ETOPS restrictions, and fewer passengers- 350 in mixed-class configuration. The airlines will reassess their long term needs with this option on the market


That’s like having the buggy whip to yourself. Even a monopoly on unwanted technology isn’t profitable.

GF
 
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ER757
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:43 pm

africawings wrote:
A different take on the news. If true, Boeing will have the 4 engine Quad market all to itself.

They should then work on tweaking the 748i to be an SP aircraft. Longer range- 10,500 miles, no ETOPS restrictions, and fewer passengers- 350 in mixed-class configuration. The airlines will reassess their long term needs with this option on the market

That would be a great way for Boeing to flush a few billion dollars down the toilet. The market for such an aircraft would be microscopic
 
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FlightLevel360
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:54 pm

This is the stupidest move in all of aviation history. They will regret it.
Shame to the airline CEOs who listen to wall street and didn't buy the A380.
To me, it will always be:
- Bombardier CSeries
- Airbus A321neoLR and A321neoXLR
- EMBRACER ERJ-170, ERJ-175, ERJ-190, and ERJ-195
- MITSUBUSHI MRJ

Anti narrowbody-long range-twinjet gang. Long live the A380 and 747!
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:00 pm

American 767 wrote:
Although Boeing also has a tough time selling the 747-8i, they haven't yet officially announced the end of the Queen. Boeing will be thinking that some airlines could change their mind.

Other than a surprise top-up by one of a three operators... who in their right mind is going to buy a 748i when the 779 is available?
Even Boeing has publicly stated that they "see no future" for the -i.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
LLA001
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:00 pm

I never flew A380 but if the rumors are true, it is sad to hear production end so quickly. I like the look of quads and trijets, and just to see tubes with two engines on the side all the time is quite boring for spotting.
 
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IslandRob
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:01 pm

FlightLevel360 wrote:
This is the stupidest move in all of aviation history.


Are you being serious? Or just emotional?

Unshackled from the A380 (at last), Airbus will be a more formidable aircraft manufacturer. Look out, Boeing! -ir
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Cruiser
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:04 pm

I am making my prediction now...the 747 will have it's last plane retired after the A380. :)
Leahy on Per Seat Costs: "Have you seen the B-2 fly-by at almost US$1bn a copy? It has only 2 seats!"
 
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Channex757
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:15 pm

Problems are that the A380 is just not an efficient use of capital. The same goes for the engines. RR won't spend a bath of cash to scrape a tiny improvement on SFC and anything worth having is going to require major surgery. The Trent 900 has given up all the low hanging fruit on economy so anything else is going to require basically a new engine.

Both the EA and RR offerings were low cost engines built with as much off-the-shelf as possible. EA's engine is a GE90 core attached to a PW4000 fan and the Trent 900 is a Trent cobbled together with modules of other existing engines. Neither is as optimised as it could be, without a lot of investment that at this stage would be pointless.
 
UA444
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:31 pm

I still think without the A380 the 747-8 does have some future passenger orders. There are still airlines that have a use for a large plane like that.
 
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Slug71
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:32 pm

The -800 should have been the base model from the start. It's really too bad, but to "fix" it would require substantial improvements to the point where a clean sheet makes more sense.

Sad days. The 777 and A350 will never be a VLA in my book. That title belongs to the big quads.
 
musman9853
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:58 pm

airbazar wrote:
Lost in all of this is the fact that she's been in commercial ops for 12 years and it has at least that many more years ahead. A ~25 year lifespan isn't too shabby even if it didn't sell that many.



considering airbus invested like 25B+ in the a380, it's pretty bad. airbus is gonna lose so much money over this.
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
OldAeroGuy
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:05 pm

africawings wrote:
A different take on the news. If true, Boeing will have the 4 engine Quad market all to itself.

They should then work on tweaking the 748i to be an SP aircraft. Longer range- 10,500 miles, no ETOPS restrictions, and fewer passengers- 350 in mixed-class configuration. The airlines will reassess their long term needs with this option on the market


Quads are subject to ETOPS restrictions with regard to passenger O2 and fire suppression requirements.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
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AlexA340B777
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:07 pm

New article from renowned German economy newspaper appeared tonight, reconfirming the decison about the 380 future is coming closer.

Article in German language only, but I suppose online translators will help:

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehme ... iVgoHd-ap1
6 continents, 85 countries, 712 flights, 88 airlines, 37 aircraft types
 
bigjku
Posts: 1906
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:51 pm

Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:07 pm

musman9853 wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Lost in all of this is the fact that she's been in commercial ops for 12 years and it has at least that many more years ahead. A ~25 year lifespan isn't too shabby even if it didn't sell that many.



considering airbus invested like 25B+ in the a380, it's pretty bad. airbus is gonna lose so much money over this.


None of this matters. That money is already spent.

The only they they are and should look at is can you build it for a profit today and/or at a reasonable expectation of a profit over however many years you think you can keep going. Anything already paid out you shouldn’t consider.
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