Turnhouse1 wrote:

A350-1100, a 316T A350 stretched to 79.9m to compete with the 777-9X, should be more efficient and still have reasonable range now they're not worried about cannibalising A380 sales

You really have to wonder how much larger potential variants of the A350 have been hobbled by a desire to not compete in the marketplace with A380.

Turnhouse1 wrote:

A320/1/2 with folding wingtips, better range for the A320/1. New stretched A322 can replace 753s and cramp the bottom of the 797 space
A220-500, for airlines wanting A320 capacity, but who don't need the weight and range.

IMO, the optimal strategy for Airbus would be the following:
* Fully develop the A220 with the -500 offering at least transcontinental U.S. range, thus covering the space from 100 to 160 seats.
* Keep selling as many lucrative A320neo and A321neo as possible until Boeing makes a move with the 797.
* Use design & development resources for an effective 797 competitor (A360?) which would likely span the space from the A321 at the bottom to the now-cancelled A350-800 at the top.
* Stretch the A350 with the -1100 variant as a more efficient competitor to the 777-9.

Cruiser wrote:

I am making my prediction now...the 747 will have it's last plane retired after the A380.

almost certainly gonna be the case.

UA444 wrote:

I still think without the A380 the 747-8 does have some future passenger orders. There are still airlines that have a use for a large plane like that.

What potential 747-8I operator wouldn't be happier with a 777-9?

AlexA340B777 wrote:

New article from renowned German economy newspaper appeared tonight, reconfirming the decison about the 380 future is coming closer.

Article in German language only, but I suppose online translators will help:

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehme ... iVgoHd-ap1

Quoting with translation:

Without a surprising turnaround in the talks between Emirates and the engine supplier Rolls-Royce, the A380 production in France and Germany would probably be shut down by 2020 according to analysts.

Given that EK has 33 firm orders remaining excluding the 20+16 order, along with the 3 which will be delivered to NH this year, this timeline makes it seem quite likely that most of the EK order will be cancelled.

musman9853 wrote:

considering airbus invested like 25B+ in the a380, it's pretty bad. airbus is gonna lose so much money over this.

Fortunately Airbus took its financial lumps on the development costs a decade ago. The only real questions are whether there are some land mines hidden in supplier agreements and what the terms are on repaying the RLI from the governments. I think there are ample options for redeploying employees to the remaining in-demand product lines.

American 767 wrote:

Although Boeing also has a tough time selling the 747-8i, they haven't yet officially announced the end of the Queen. Boeing will be thinking that some airlines could change their mind.

Boeing could not get a carrier to take the 747-8 even if they gave them away free. Also they must be at a point where there are no suppliers to build these Hunchbacks since the last one was delivered over one and half years ago.

ScottB wrote:

You really have to wonder how much larger potential variants of the A350 have been hobbled by a desire to not compete in the marketplace with A380.

What marketplace? The 777-9 itself has stopped selling completely and the A350-1000 has not sold a lot either. Evidence points out that there is not much demand for an aircraft larger than A350-900.

ScottB wrote:

IMO, the optimal strategy for Airbus would be the following:
* Fully develop the A220 with the -500 offering at least transcontinental U.S. range, thus covering the space from 100 to 160 seats.
* Keep selling as many lucrative A320neo and A321neo as possible until Boeing makes a move with the 797.
* Use design & development resources for an effective 797 competitor (A360?) which would likely span the space from the A321 at the bottom to the now-cancelled A350-800 at the top.
* Stretch the A350 with the -1100 variant as a more efficient competitor to the 777-9.

I think designing the A220-500 for TCON range would be a bad idea, the A320 is there for people who need 5+ hours, it should be aiming for light weight and efficiency in the 1-3 hour range where an awful lot of flights are.

Agree on not doing anything until 797 details are announced, though there are fairly reliable rumours Airbus is working on a folding wing, likely for the A320. It would be a quick and relatively cheap way to restrict the space available to Boeing until Airbus have their new A360 (A330 replacement) ready, I think I see the opportunity for the A360 as a slightly larger plane than you. But what the 797 ends up being and the RR Advance thrust range will influence this. The A350-1100 is obvious.

Erebus wrote:

American 767 wrote:

They will make Boeing's day when they will officially announce the end of the production line.

Perhaps for bragging rights, yes. But deep down, I think Boeing would have been happy with Airbus being preoccupied with such a money pit that has been a drag on its resources. One has to wonder what they have to contend with afterwards.

Precisely.

Will give Airbus much greater freedom and opportunity:

1) there is clearly a great deal of Engineering & Design talent within Airbus which is currently under-utilised.
2) Airbus should become much stronger financially in the near future.

Watch out Boeing!

cheers

Time to get a ride in the whale before it becomes a lot more difficult! Sad indeed.

Strato2 wrote:

Boeing could not get a carrier to take the 747-8 even if they gave them away free.

Tell that to LH, KE, and CA.

Strato2 wrote:

Boeing could not get a carrier to take the 747-8 even if they gave them away free.

Interesting considering a few airlines did take them. None of whom have developed buyer's remorse like we've seen with the A380.

jfk777 wrote:

It would have died much sooner if not for Emirates.

Perhaps. Perhaps not; without the Emirates effect would other airlines elsewhere have needed the capacity brought by the A380? It could be argued that Emirates taking so many and using them to so many places actually depressed the overall market for A380s with other carriers who might otherwise have ordered them.

V/F

brindabella wrote:

Erebus wrote:

American 767 wrote:

They will make Boeing's day when they will officially announce the end of the production line.

Perhaps for bragging rights, yes. But deep down, I think Boeing would have been happy with Airbus being preoccupied with such a money pit that has been a drag on its resources. One has to wonder what they have to contend with afterwards.

Precisely.

Will give Airbus much greater freedom and opportunity:

1) there is clearly a great deal of Engineering & Design talent within Airbus which is currently under-utilised.
2) Airbus should become much stronger financially in the near future.

Watch out Boeing!

cheers

Plenty of talent - just no capital to put it to use.

[code][/code]

lavalampluva wrote:

I've never had the pleasure of flying on an A380, but it looks and sounds like an incredible aircraft. But IMO it's too much aircraft for today. There aren't a lot of air carriers who could fill one economically.

What the A380 in part has done to J class fares is wonderful. Has a passenger its my fav on many airlines, there just so much room.

YellowJ wrote:

Strato2 wrote:

Boeing could not get a carrier to take the 747-8 even if they gave them away free.

Interesting considering a few airlines did take them. None of whom have developed buyer's remorse like we've seen with the A380.

I wonder if it made it easier to swallow the idea of the 748-I for these carriers because they knew they could be converted to cargo haulers when their passenger duties ended. I understand that -I has the SUD vs. the purposeful -F, nor does it have the nose door, but it still offers an alternative for these frames.

Back to the A380, I have to wonder how ANA feels knowing they’re probably the last customer.

Remember how the Boeing 757 found a new lease of life (transatlantic flights) years after the program was officially canceled? I think with the A380 out of the way, Boeing will find a way to revise the use of the 748i ... By my count, there is a commercial gap in range and economic performance between the 777X and the 748i. It was not worth Boeing tweaking the 748i, with the A380 in the picture, but now....just you watch!

ETOPS should never have been invented in the first place. It's time to get rid of it.

Remember how the Boeing 757 found a new lease of life (transatlantic flights) years after the program was officially canceled? I think with the A380 out of the way, Boeing will find a way to revise the use of the 748i ... By my count, there is a commercial gap in range and economic performance between the 777X and the 748i. It was not worth Boeing tweaking the 748i, with the A380 in the picture, but now....just you watch!

musman9853 wrote:

Cruiser wrote:

I am making my prediction now...the 747 will have it's last plane retired after the A380.

almost certainly gonna be the case.

Yes, freighters do tend to have very long lives in service.

Geoff

Just because the A380 May be going out of production, it doesn’t mean the 748-I has any sort of future. The market has spoke , and as someone up thread indicated, the wide body sweet spot seems to be 300-350 seats. Airbus and Boeing both have compelling products in this space. If Airbus loses one A380 sale but picks up 2-3 A350 sales, I think they’d be quite pleased with that.

Having grown up in Boeing territory, and at a time when the 747 had been well-established as the Queen of the Skies, I've always hoped the 747 outlives the A380, but I was never eager for either to go out of production.

The reality that the A380 might be ending production soon is very disappointing to me.

i'm sorry but they can't because it will just wreck the aviation world without the super jumbo

ACCS300 wrote:

The A380 is a unique and amazing aircraft, Anet, I feel, never gave it the respect it deserved and seemed to be constantly predicting, and at times, hoping for it's demise.

Only flown it once, BA LHR-YVR Sept 2016 was quiet, super comfortable and spacious on lower deck Y. We're coming close to only having the choice of flying on giant twins which are looking and feeling more and more alike. The A380 stood apart, was amazing to watch, added variety and excitement to airports and flying. Really wish they'd sold a couple hundred more but the plane was an incredible feat and product, hope they keep flying another decade at least.

Lot of armchair quarter backing on here, and It and the 747-8 (I love the look of it) were not great choices. Frequent Flyers almost always say They Love It. I know I do.

IslandRob wrote:

FlightLevel360 wrote:

This is the stupidest move in all of aviation history.

Are you being serious? Or just emotional?

Unshackled from the A380 (at last), Airbus will be a more formidable aircraft manufacturer. Look out, Boeing! -ir

Not bashing Airbus, but I'm just saying that the decision to end the A380 means that Airbus is being a cowardly crybaby.

Launch Aid is always available...

After all the Ode to Joy, the A380 will be remembered as but a big, boutique airplane.

FlightLevel360 wrote:

...Airbus is being a cowardly crybaby.

crying over spilt milk... billions of Euros of spilt milk.

FlightLevel360 wrote:

ETOPS should never have been invented in the first place. It's time to get rid of it.

I'm gonna assume you're being serious. So, why do you think etops should be revoked? afaik, there have been no incidents that would make you doubt etops. (air transat 236 is probably the closest, but a quad would probably have been doomed due to greater fuel burn)

FlightLevel360 wrote:

IslandRob wrote:

FlightLevel360 wrote:

This is the stupidest move in all of aviation history.

Are you being serious? Or just emotional?

Unshackled from the A380 (at last), Airbus will be a more formidable aircraft manufacturer. Look out, Boeing! -ir

Not bashing Airbus, but I'm just saying that the decision to end the A380 means that Airbus is being a cowardly crybaby.

If, as some have speculated here, that Airbus is losing up to $50 M on each A380 that they built, this is a sound business decision.

If true, It'd be a shame, but also the furthest thing from surprising. The A380 simply came too late. The market isn't geared towards massive 4-engined jumbos like the A380 anymore, and it's instead geared towards efficient twinjets like the 787/A350.

I believe if the A380 had been launched 10 years earlier, sales would be much higher. Even in the mid-late 1990s, there was still market for quadjets like 744, so you'd think the A380 would have some form of success.

WPvsMW wrote:

FlightLevel360 wrote:

...Airbus is being a cowardly crybaby.

crying over spilt milk... billions of Euros of spilt milk.

Ha!

musman9853 wrote:

I'm gonna assume you're being serious. So, why do you think etops should be revoked? afaik, there have been no incidents that would make you doubt etops. (air transat 236 is probably the closest, but a quad would probably have been doomed due to greater fuel burn)

Maybe that was my overreaction, but what's wrong with adding four fuel efficient engines on a next-generation VLA? Engine issues aside, 4 trent 1000s can easily make the A380 much more efficient.

Prost wrote:

If, as some have speculated here, that Airbus is losing up to $50 M on each A380 that they built, this is a sound business decision.

What if the market changes again? We all know that things like these are quite dynamic. Then they will regret not building VLAs anymore. The same thing can be seen with buses in major cities - originally, they were single deckers, and as rider demand increased, they began offering more frequencies, but as rider demand increased even further, they had to bring in double-decker or articulated buses. We're currently at the stage where air travel demand is increasing and more frequencies are starting to be offered, but as the demand continues its inevitable growth, there comes a time where you can't just add frequencies anymore. At that point, capacity increases will pay off greatly.

ikramerica wrote:

Without a NEO no model survives 20 years. It’s not that the A380 didn’t last long, it’s that it could never achieve the sales numbers it needed to make sense.

Back during the launch phase, many of us accurately dismissed Airbus numbers regarding market size, because even then we knew that they were not accounting for the fact that most 747s were bought fir range and cargo ability, not passenger count. With smaller twins available with 747 range and cargo ability, building a bigger quad with comparably less usable cargo space was not meeting the replacement market in the way Airbus was projecting. This was borne out over 17 years with the A380s limited role as a 747 replacement, instead selling mostly to EK, a carrier with a unique business model who never flew 747s to begin with.

Not true for the A320-200 CEO, which turned 30 in November, and still has a backlog of about 80.

Same goes for the A333, but is a few years newer.

Update from Reuters today is Airbus will give an update on A380 shutdown plans on 2/14 (also discussed in Emirates A380 order thread):

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1Q1259

AlexA340B777 wrote:

New article from renowned German economy newspaper appeared tonight, reconfirming the decison about the 380 future is coming closer.

Article in German language only, but I suppose online translators will help:

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehme ... iVgoHd-ap1

This article claimed that they are still pushing for BA to order a few more A380s

Strato2 wrote:

American 767 wrote:

Although Boeing also has a tough time selling the 747-8i, they haven't yet officially announced the end of the Queen. Boeing will be thinking that some airlines could change their mind.

Boeing could not get a carrier to take the 747-8 even if they gave them away free. Also they must be at a point where there are no suppliers to build these Hunchbacks since the last one was delivered over one and half years ago.

What are you babbling on about? There's still 20 undelivered -8F frames yet.

Very sad... It not today it will be soon.

The A380 is by far the most comfortable plane I've ever flown on. Two more flights lined up for 19'.

FlightLevel360 wrote:

Not bashing Airbus, but I'm just saying that the decision to end the A380 means that Airbus is being a cowardly crybaby.

It's actually just the opposite. Continuing to sink resources into something that's a loser is reckless, when one could be devoting those same resources to something else that could be viable.

Airbus isn't an overly emotional adolescent like you are. They don't make decisions like this out of hubris or pride. They have a duty to their shareholders to return the most value possible for their investment, and if that means cutting an albatross from around their neck, that's what they're going to do.

jworks158 wrote:

This article claimed that they are still pushing for BA to order a few more A380s

BA are too smart for that. When they are ready for more A380s, they will just pick up used frames for cheap.

FlightLevel360 wrote:

IslandRob wrote:

FlightLevel360 wrote:

This is the stupidest move in all of aviation history.

Are you being serious? Or just emotional?

Unshackled from the A380 (at last), Airbus will be a more formidable aircraft manufacturer. Look out, Boeing! -ir

Not bashing Airbus, but I'm just saying that the decision to end the A380 means that Airbus is being a cowardly crybaby.

You've never managed a company, have you? When one of your product cannot be sold for a profit, you kill that product. That's economics-101 and Airbus has shareholders to report to.

I love the A380; market is just not there.

africawings wrote:

Remember how the Boeing 757 found a new lease of life (transatlantic flights) years after the program was officially canceled? I think with the A380 out of the way, Boeing will find a way to revise the use of the 748i ... By my count, there is a commercial gap in range and economic performance between the 777X and the 748i. It was not worth Boeing tweaking the 748i, with the A380 in the picture, but now....just you watch!

Sorry but that's just fan boy talk, the kind we've had here since it became clear the A380 would die a slow death after both A380neo and A380plus got rejected.

The 747 is too heavy, it's got too many engines, and its wing is too aggressively swept.

It still works (barely) when the objective is to carry heavy and odd shaped cargo, but for pax it's a goner.

Boeing has a lot of money it wants to make in the 777x space, and now that it's clear A380s days are limited Boeing will be worried more about A350 and derivatives rather than a reboot of the 747-8i.

jeffrey0032j wrote:

Channex757 wrote:

jeffrey0032j wrote:

Some not too unexpected news from Reuters. While this has been discussed in several other threads, I think it deserves its own thread. Mods, please close this thread if there are any duplication.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1PW2GE

This is nearly a week old, not some fresh news story. It was posted when QF did their cancellation.

Remarkably short on detail too although much of this story is going to be behind the scenes. A decision has to come and sooner rather than later. Airbus could use the A380 construction spaces to open another A350 line and solve the logjam of orders.

There isn't really a logjam of orders for the A350. They were considering a rate increase for some time but this hasn't been decided yet and it is just based on current orders and production facilities. I read it as the orders aren't coming fast enough yet to justify that rate increase, additional hangar space won't help in this case.

The sweet spot of the widebody market for the past 15 years has been the A330/787 segment, though that market segment is now with Boeing.

The logjam is what John Leahy was bemoaning for a while. Orders were healthy and a production line slot can only be used once. He stated several times that he could sell more aircraft if he had the production slots to support them.

Using the A380 capacity for an A350-2000 line would free up slots if the -2000 line also handled the -1000 and its variants. That could come on line at just the right moment for the A35K and its proposed bigger sibling as the possible replacement deals for 773ER fleets would be coming due, and not everyone will want to go with the 777-9.

Bricktop wrote:

It'll be a sad day when they announce the end of A380 production, but I will still have plenty of time to fly on one I hope. (Me not the A380 in-service).

But for how long? Those operating A380s won’t enjoy the longevity of the 747 in service.

gatibosgru wrote:

Time to get a ride in the whale before it becomes a lot more difficult! Sad indeed.

Not to worry. 380 production will end but 380 service will continue for at least another decade.

Once mainline airlines start retiring them, all won't be immediately turned into beer cans. At least a few will be picked up by airlines willing to experiment with true cattle class seating, or some other boutique format.

Strato2 wrote:

American 767 wrote:

Although Boeing also has a tough time selling the 747-8i, they haven't yet officially announced the end of the Queen. Boeing will be thinking that some airlines could change their mind.

Boeing could not get a carrier to take the 747-8 even if they gave them away free. Also they must be at a point where there are no suppliers to build these Hunchbacks since the last one was delivered over one and half years ago.

Oh, I don't know...Lufthansa might be happy with a few additional 747-8's, if given for free - talk about an unlimited shelf life! They wisely made it a niche aircraft, and it rotates around the world on seasonal routes, swapping out with other routes when the time comes. However, skipping this exception that ain't a-happening, you are correct.

In a book I have in storage (yes, I know, I say that a lot!), there are descriptions of "possible new versions of the 747 family after the -400, including the -500X, the -600X, and -700X". Each of them were stretched versions of the -400, stretching the 747 design like it was a DC-8! Further onward below the pictures (I promise I will find my source books one day!), it said, "the stretched versions will feature all-new wing designs", and capacity increases of up to nearly 700 in all-economy, if I remember right.

When the A380 appeared, I remember thinking, "Boeing did the first concept, but either Airbus beat them to the Gargantuan-class civil aircraft OR Boeing looked at the predicted costs versus potential break-even and profit levels, and decided the numbers weren't there and ceded this market to Airbus." I am glad that mostly operations are now routine, and for many airlines it has proven to be a reliable and profitable aircraft.

I find the parallels with the first 747's to be of note as well:

1) Both planes started out life being primarily associated with one airline: the 747 with Pan Am, and the A380 with Emirates, whose business model was the first to create the Center-of-the-Planet hub, and the A380 played a major role in its plans..

2) The initial teething troubles with the engines - remember that Pratt & Whitney had real issues with delivering on promised capabilities. That led to many fully finished 747's to sit with weights in place of engines, keeping the wing bent properly.

3) Operations of both planes into airports not used to them required training and a LOT of finesse!

4) Both planes enjoyed early strong sales, but the great jump in capacity cooled the market off quickly. Those that are able to utilize this aircraft profitably have purchased those that they need, and other carriers are choosing other aircraft that meet their needs.

5) Both are magnificent aircraft, and both will be flying for many years. No predictions on who will be last.

One final question for the community: many 747's were ordered, more for their range than for capacity. Were any A380's purchased for their range rather than capacity?

QueenoftheSkies wrote:

Bricktop wrote:

It'll be a sad day when they announce the end of A380 production, but I will still have plenty of time to fly on one I hope. (Me not the A380 in-service).

But for how long? Those operating A380s won’t enjoy the longevity of the 747 in service.

EK, BA, LH, and QF all will use the A380 for quite some time.

Anyone who thinks that the end of the A380 breathes new life into the 748i is delusional. During the 744s heyday it had two major things going for it. It had the longest range of any airliner available and the best per seat economics. With the advent of the 777 (especially the 77W) this was no longer the case, and neither the A380 nor the 748 offered either longer range or enough better per seat economics to make up for the higher costs or risk. And now with the 787, A350 and 779 all offering not only equal or better range and better per seat economics, and the 779 coming close in capacity, why on earth would an airline want the 748? The A380 beat it in every head to head competition. I would love to see more of them, but I expect to see flying pigs first. The 748F, however, will likely see continued orders for some time to come.

speedbird52 wrote:

QueenoftheSkies wrote:

Bricktop wrote:

It'll be a sad day when they announce the end of A380 production, but I will still have plenty of time to fly on one I hope. (Me not the A380 in-service).

But for how long? Those operating A380s won’t enjoy the longevity of the 747 in service.

EK, BA, LH, and QF all will use the A380 for quite some time.

I strongly doubt many will fly into the 2030s.

Unlike many here, I did not enjoy flying the A380 in the least. From a product management standpoint it clearly missed the mark; I bet the engineers working on it would have liked a second chance to do it a bit differently. Still, it was a remarkable airplane.