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Stitch
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:19 am

UA444 wrote:
I still think without the A380 the 747-8 does have some future passenger orders. There are still airlines that have a use for a large plane like that.


Boeing probably couldn't build more than a handful of passenger 747-8s from their spares stock even if an airline did want them (which they do not) due to the suppliers for parts for the Intercontinental have closed up that part of their shops as the last airline delivery was almost two years ago to Korean and over a year ago to a BBJ customer.


PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
In a book I have in storage (yes, I know, I say that a lot!), there are descriptions of "possible new versions of the 747 family after the -400, including the -500X, the -600X, and -700X". Each of them were stretched versions of the -400, stretching the 747 design like it was a DC-8! Further onward below the pictures (I promise I will find my source books one day!), it said, "the stretched versions will feature all-new wing designs", and capacity increases of up to nearly 700 in all-economy, if I remember right.

When the A380 appeared, I remember thinking, "Boeing did the first concept, but either Airbus beat them to the Gargantuan-class civil aircraft OR Boeing looked at the predicted costs versus potential break-even and profit levels, and decided the numbers weren't there and ceded this market to Airbus."


I think after a decade of failed attempts at launching a larger 747 than the 747-400, Boeing just gave up on the idea. The only real reason the 747-8 made it was adopting the 787 engine technology that improved it's usability as a freighter (and yes, I am fully aware Boeing's original sales projections strongly favored the passenger model).



PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
One final question for the community: many 747's were ordered, more for their range than for capacity. Were any A380's purchased for their range rather than capacity?


I would expect not. While the A380-800's range was superlative, the Boeing 747-400ER matched it (at a lower payload) and that frame only sold six. The A340 and 777 already had sufficient range to connect most everywhere anyone wanted to fly and the A380 could not match the range of the A340-500 and 777-200LR (at a viable payload) for true C-Market / ULR routes.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:31 am

PITingres wrote:
Unlike many here, I did not enjoy flying the A380 in the least. From a product management standpoint it clearly missed the mark; I bet the engineers working on it would have liked a second chance to do it a bit differently. Still, it was a remarkable airplane.

Can you explain why you do not enjoy flying the A380?
 
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FlightLevel360
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:37 am

777PHX wrote:
FlightLevel360 wrote:
Not bashing Airbus, but I'm just saying that the decision to end the A380 means that Airbus is being a cowardly crybaby.


It's actually just the opposite. Continuing to sink resources into something that's a loser is reckless, when one could be devoting those same resources to something else that could be viable.

Airbus isn't an overly emotional adolescent like you are. They don't make decisions like this out of hubris or pride. They have a duty to their shareholders to return the most value possible for their investment, and if that means cutting an albatross from around their neck, that's what they're going to do.


I beg to differ. What are the costs of keeping a production line idle? Should they need a VLA in the future, the tooling is already there.

And I would appreciate it if you could stop calling me names just because I don't share the same views as you.
To me, it will always be:
- Bombardier CSeries
- Airbus A321neoLR and A321neoXLR
- EMBRACER ERJ-170, ERJ-175, ERJ-190, and ERJ-195
- MITSUBUSHI MRJ

Anti narrowbody-long range-twinjet gang. Long live the A380 and 747!
 
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FlyingJhawk
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:38 am

The A380 suffers from the 2s.

2 late
2 big
2 too many engines
 
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Stitch
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:47 am

FlightLevel360 wrote:
What are the costs of keeping a production line idle? Should they need a VLA in the future, the tooling is already there.


Having a production line is not enough. You need a viable supplier network to feed that production line parts. So beyond just mothballing the A380 FAL in TLS and outfitting center in XFW, Airbus would also have to pay all of their A380 suppliers to keep their factories mothballed. Airbus would also need to pay for both their own and supplier staff so as to not lose the institutional knowledge needed to ensure the suppliers can make the parts and Airbus can assemble and outfit them into an airframe.

And then there is the opportunity cost of keeping the A380 FAL and OFS lying around. Airbus is already using some idle A380 facilities to support the A350 program. but if they converted those A380 facilities to dedicated A350 facilities, they could support higher production rates which could (likely would) improve their RFP wins against the 787 and 777 programs.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:03 am

UA444 wrote:
I still think without the A380 the 747-8 does have some future passenger orders.

You might.... but Boeing certainly doesn't:

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... ger-plane/

It's a rare day when a product is so thoroughly rejected by the market that its manufacturer comes out and publicly says: "we don't see a future for this thing."

The A380's continuance or demise would of course be a contingency factor in any estimation they make.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:08 am

FlightLevel360 wrote:
I beg to differ. What are the costs of keeping a production line idle?

You're asking only one of two pertinent questions.... the other being: what is the OPPORTUNITY COST of *not* closing the line?
I.e. what else can we be doing with that space/resources, and how much money are we losing by NOT doing THAT?

It's a pretty simple equation really:
when (Actual Cost + Opportunity Cost) > (Actual Revenue + Foreseeable Projected Revenue), then a manufacturer can no longer justify production of a product, no matter how new/beloved it may be.

While that determination has yet to be made (public), there are impending signs that Airbus feels they've reached that point.


FlightLevel360 wrote:
And I would appreciate it if you could stop calling me names just because I don't share the same views as you.

It's not really because you have different views, it's because you're being almost criminally ridiculous in assessing those views-- especially ones with four decades of market performance to show that you're dead wrong.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:20 am

Channex757 wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
Channex757 wrote:
This is nearly a week old, not some fresh news story. It was posted when QF did their cancellation.

Remarkably short on detail too although much of this story is going to be behind the scenes. A decision has to come and sooner rather than later. Airbus could use the A380 construction spaces to open another A350 line and solve the logjam of orders.

There isn't really a logjam of orders for the A350. They were considering a rate increase for some time but this hasn't been decided yet and it is just based on current orders and production facilities. I read it as the orders aren't coming fast enough yet to justify that rate increase, additional hangar space won't help in this case.

The sweet spot of the widebody market for the past 15 years has been the A330/787 segment, though that market segment is now with Boeing.

The logjam is what John Leahy was bemoaning for a while. Orders were healthy and a production line slot can only be used once. He stated several times that he could sell more aircraft if he had the production slots to support them.

Using the A380 capacity for an A350-2000 line would free up slots if the -2000 line also handled the -1000 and its variants. That could come on line at just the right moment for the A35K and its proposed bigger sibling as the possible replacement deals for 773ER fleets would be coming due, and not everyone will want to go with the 777-9.

And how long ago was that? Leahy is no longer with Airbus since 2017. There was an initial logjam possibly due to production startup, but there isn't now, which is probably the reason why they haven't made up their mind whether to increase production rates.
 
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wiggy
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:25 am

if emirates get rid of there a380s before i can even have chance to go on one i'm going to to be upset
 
TaniTaniwha
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:28 am

While I don't like to see any end of era (albeit a short era), it is not unexpected. My issue with the Aircraft is not the flight experience, but the airport experience. 500 odd pax turning up all at once at check in, customs, boarding and that's just at the departure. Extrapolate that with several at the same time (for example, Sydney Arrivals first thing in the morning) and it only gets worse. At least with 250-300 pax twins, this is more staggered with the same number of pax over more flights and gives the infrastructure time to breathe.
[photoid][/photoid][photoid][/photoid]
 
HPAEAA
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:31 am

If true, sad to see the end of the experiment... iirc Airbus had one vision of the future and Boeing had another, in this case, Boeing won... I’ve flown the 744 multiple time on Various routes to LHR and the A380 on the LHR-HKG route and while the A380 is a good ride, I still prefer the upper deck of the 744 any chance I get vs any other airliner... it’s not that often that your in a private cabin with 20 or so other passengers and can feel that far removed from the engine noise.... I like the 787 & 777 line, but the Ud on the 744 has a much more intimate feeling given the smaller size vs just being the 2nd story of a plane...
1.4mm and counting...
 
N174UA
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:31 am

jfk777 wrote:
IT had to end some time, sadly it didn't sell well except to one airline. It would have died much sooner if not for Emirates. Some airline Airbus thought would be buyer were not for several reasons. Airbus probably thought Japan Airlines, Cathay and Air China were going to buy it but they stayed away. Cathay and JAL love their 777-300ER & A350's( JAL starts soon) for their very long range and freight carrying ability.

The A380 was 'engineering testostaron" as Gordon Bethune once said, another airplane project for European glory that was a flop. When they get retired they will be celebrated in many aviation museums like the Concorde is today. How many billions of Euros did Airbus loose on this magnificent looking airplane ? It made a statement but not money for its maker.


Right, and not a single big 3 US carrier bought any either. That must have been a big blow to the program as well.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:32 am

Best ride ever... upper deck on a 744... on NW HNL/NRT many times... and many pleasant flights, esp. when the FAs would distribute bottles of unopened wine upon arrival at NRT.
Not like an A380 with 100 other pax in J.
Last edited by WPvsMW on Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
speedbird52
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:33 am

aviationaware wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
QueenoftheSkies wrote:

But for how long? Those operating A380s won’t enjoy the longevity of the 747 in service.

EK, BA, LH, and QF all will use the A380 for quite some time.


I strongly doubt many will fly into the 2030s.

BA have tried to purchase more A380s since taking their current 12, Lufthansa have wanted a plane the size of the A380 for years, Emirates love their A380s, half their fleet consists of the type. I definitely see the fleet shrinking, but not disappearing.
 
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Channex757
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 3:00 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
And how long ago was that? Leahy is no longer with Airbus since 2017. There was an initial logjam possibly due to production startup, but there isn't now, which is probably the reason why they haven't made up their mind whether to increase production rates.

The logjam is having sufficient flexibility to take orders and deliver on dates that suit the client. There is also the 777 retirement wave coming up, as well as A330 at operators who might want to upgrade.

Having slots available for A35K variants is going to become important as leases expire.
 
LVISA
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 3:09 am

wiggy wrote:
if emirates get rid of there a380s before i can even have chance to go on one i'm going to to be upset


Agreed. And how sad it will be when everything flying has two engines... "Hey look, a Boeing 350!... No, it's an Airbus 797!!..."
 
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PITingres
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 3:35 am

WayexTDI wrote:
PITingres wrote:
Unlike many here, I did not enjoy flying the A380 in the least. From a product management standpoint it clearly missed the mark; I bet the engineers working on it would have liked a second chance to do it a bit differently. Still, it was a remarkable airplane.

Can you explain why you do not enjoy flying the A380?


Sure. I've always been in the lower deck, upper deck might be different. Anyway, massive pile-up in the boarding area. Seats mounted down too low on the curve, so that you lose a couple inches of foot room for no good reason, while the window seems miles away through a porthole and the ceiling is unnecessarily high. Massive wing blocks any hope of seeing anything from too many seats. Billowy, vaguely nauseous ride. Yes, it's quiet, but that's way down on my scale of I-care. I don't hate it, but I sure don't seek them out.
Fly, you fools! Fly!
 
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DL717
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 3:37 am

PITingres wrote:
Unlike many here, I did not enjoy flying the A380 in the least. From a product management standpoint it clearly missed the mark; I bet the engineers working on it would have liked a second chance to do it a bit differently. Still, it was a remarkable airplane.


I agree. It redefined cattle call. Flew it twice, completely nuts boarding. Interior? Nothing special.
Welcome to Nothingburgers. May I take your order?
 
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kitplane01
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 3:44 am

ikramerica wrote:
Without a NEO no model survives 20 years. It’s not that the A380 didn’t last long, it’s that it could never achieve the sales numbers it needed to make sense.

Back during the launch phase, many of us accurately dismissed Airbus numbers regarding market size, because even then we knew that they were not accounting for the fact that most 747s were bought fir range and cargo ability, not passenger count. With smaller twins available with 747 range and cargo ability, building a bigger quad with comparably less usable cargo space was not meeting the replacement market in the way Airbus was projecting. This was borne out over 17 years with the A380s limited role as a 747 replacement, instead selling mostly to EK, a carrier with a unique business model who never flew 747s to begin with.


Except the 767. The 767 continues forever :-)
 
cpd
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 4:17 am

WPvsMW wrote:
Best ride ever... upper deck on a 744... on NW HNL/NRT many times... and many pleasant flights, esp. when the FAs would distribute bottles of unopened wine upon arrival at NRT.
Not like an A380 with 100 other pax in J.


Probably less comfortable than the premium economy of many airlines today. Meanwhile the business class on some A380 aircraft is so comfortable and private you could forget other people are there.

Edit: Yes, NW Business Class looks largely similar to old-fashioned Qantas business class on the 767 flying domestic. Jammed in next your neighbour, no privacy.

DL717 wrote:
PITingres wrote:
Unlike many here, I did not enjoy flying the A380 in the least. From a product management standpoint it clearly missed the mark; I bet the engineers working on it would have liked a second chance to do it a bit differently. Still, it was a remarkable airplane.


I agree. It redefined cattle call. Flew it twice, completely nuts boarding. Interior? Nothing special.


Nothing special? I was sitting in a lounge on board, with a bar in front of me. Not bad at all! You should fly business or first class more often. ;) On the times I've been in economy class, I've always been right up the front of the plane and always quick to get on the plane and one of the first to leave the plane too, and always in a fairly small cabin area right near the front.
Last edited by cpd on Wed Feb 13, 2019 4:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 4:20 am

You have to hand it to Boeing. They've had some varients that were flops but every model they have produced has been a great success.

But congrats to the A380 program team. They designed something very unique.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 4:30 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
They designed something very unique.

Especially the first five. ;)
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 4:35 am

wiggy wrote:
If Emirates get rid of their A380s before I can even have chance to go on one I'm going to to be upset

Given they are still taking delivery of them at the moment, I imagine you won’t have to worry about them vanishing from the skies within the next decade, so you should have ample opportunity to fly on them. Perhaps make this year the year you fly on one and then you can feel safe in the knowledge you’ve had a go.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
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Stitch
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 4:38 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
They designed something very unique.

WPvsMW wrote:
Especially the first five. ;)


Twenty-Five, actually.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:07 am

aaexecplat wrote:
Stitch wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
They designed something very unique.

WPvsMW wrote:
Especially the first five. ;)


Twenty-Five, actually.


Are you guys done with the backhanded compliments? Recap of this and prior threads...

A380 haters: The A380 is way too big. CASM only matters when you can fill the entire airplane...trip cost is king! The A380 is ugly and an expensive vanity project. Nobody is buying it because it is an awful airplane.

Airbus: We will halt production on the A380.

A380 haters: There may be life in the 748i yet! Some airlines can use VLAs.

Not even sure what to say anymore.


You won't find me giving any support to the 747-8i. That goose is cooked. Only the 747-8F will live on.
 
Jet-lagged
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:22 am

I hope I have the chance to fly an A380 someday, and a 747-8. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
 
nz2
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:32 am

Wouldnt the 748 be the ultimate plane for SYD/LHR or go one step further, AKL/LHR. As mentioned by an ealier post, 300-350 pax leaves loads of room for lounge and relax areas, possible dust off the sky loft !
From AKL you could probably choose to fly over the south or the north pole depending on weather..... Just dreaming......
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:32 am

Jet-lagged wrote:
I hope I have the chance to fly an A380 someday, and a 747-8. But I wouldn’t bet on it.



There are flocks of both around right now. With a little planning, none are really hard gets. Now, if we were talking about A345s or 732s, I could see what you mean. But you probably have at least Ten years to nail this.
"Nous ne sommes pas infectés. Il n'y a pas d'infection ici..."
 
mzlin
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:35 am

PITingres wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
PITingres wrote:
Unlike many here, I did not enjoy flying the A380 in the least. From a product management standpoint it clearly missed the mark; I bet the engineers working on it would have liked a second chance to do it a bit differently. Still, it was a remarkable airplane.

Can you explain why you do not enjoy flying the A380?


Sure. I've always been in the lower deck, upper deck might be different. Anyway, massive pile-up in the boarding area. Seats mounted down too low on the curve, so that you lose a couple inches of foot room for no good reason, while the window seems miles away through a porthole and the ceiling is unnecessarily high. Massive wing blocks any hope of seeing anything from too many seats. Billowy, vaguely nauseous ride. Yes, it's quiet, but that's way down on my scale of I-care. I don't hate it, but I sure don't seek them out.


I went out of my way to fly the A380; got an upper-level window seat on an SQ flight from LAX to NRT. I did notice the seat was wider than average and I enjoyed stashing my pillow and blanket and computer bag in the compartment to my side, between the seat and the wall, under the window. BUT I didn't enjoy at all how there was at least 6 inches of distance between the inner and outer windows due to a very thick wall, plus the windows were tiny, plus as mentioned the wing blocked most of the view. I'd rather have the 17.5" seat and a much larger window with a clear view outside, because on long haul, there will always be beautiful scenery at some point in the flight. In fact the scenery is one of the things I enjoy most about flying.

I did think, with such a thick and heavy wall, plus all this extra unused space in the under-window storage (I seemed to be the only person using it), plus the fact that there were literally only 8 rows in economy between two pairs of doors (4 exit doors for 64 people!), that it seemed uneconomical and a wasted opportunity for Airbus not to have made the A380 more space-efficient.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:41 am

Cabin configuration is controlled by the buyer (SQ) of the frame, not the seller.
 
KFLLCFII
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:57 am

Assuming the rumor turns out to be true and Airbus ends up ceasing production prior to all firm orders being delivered, would the below list be correct to include all jetliner models among Airbus and Boeing which received firm orders that were never delivered due to either the model being cancelled or production ceased prior to delivery?

Airbus

A350mk1 (pre-XWB)
A358
A380 passenger
A380F

*A338 program has not yet been cancelled and still open to orders.

Boeing

2707
783
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
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seahawk
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:05 am

The big question is what will come next for Airbus. I can not see them going into the future with just the A320 + A350.
 
Blotto
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:24 am

Good move.
Go with the 350, maybe stretch it.
Focus on a real 330 replacement
Give the 321 some more legs

Seems like a good strategy
 
mzlin
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:28 am

WPvsMW wrote:
Cabin configuration is controlled by the buyer (SQ) of the frame, not the seller.


Well duh I know that. You seem to have missed that, actually, the 8 rows of ECONOMY 8-abreast seats between the last two upper deck exit doors I experienced on SQ is the DENSEST of all A380 configurations possible in that section.

So yes, 64 (actually 68 because the middle section has 9 rows while the outside sections have 8) people per 4 exit doors is the maximum number of seats that can be fitted in the rear upper deck cabin, but clearly the doors are capable of egressing more people per regulations. I deduced the number and locations of the (heavy and space-requiring) doors were designed to allow the placement of a fuselage plug for a stretch that never materialized. By wasted space and weight, I meant the shape of the cabin and the thickness of the walls and the placement of the doors, not the seat width or pitch which were as small as possible for that section of the A380. The point is that, even if you try to cram as many people as possible, the fixed dimensions and door placement causes a lot of wasted space.

You can check the various A380 seat maps if you are unclear about what I mean, just compare for example SQ A380 v1 (mostly economy upper deck) to any other A380 seat map. SQ's A380 v1 is already inefficient with economy on upper deck. Seat count per floor area or seat count per door only gets worse of course with more premium layouts.
 
douwd20
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:43 am

ScottB wrote:
Erebus wrote:
But deep down, I think Boeing would have been happy with Airbus being preoccupied with such a money pit that has been a drag on its resources. One has to wonder what they have to contend with afterwards.


Absolutely! Boeing was lucky that Airbus was bogged down with developing the A380 and A340NG while they themselves were massively screwing up the 787 development. If Airbus had had the resources to respond quickly with a clean-sheet product to match or beat the 787, that disaster might have brought Boeing down. Instead, thanks to constrained development resources, Airbus trotted out several A350 iterations that were little more than warmed-over A330s and the customer response was vocal and negative. Boeing got several years of breathing room and the A350 came to market probably half a decade later than it should have.


The A350 wouldn't exist if the 787 didn't exist. John Leahy thought they could just re-engine the A330 to compete and only once that failed to generate interest did Airbus launch the A350.
 
JAAlbert
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:21 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
I read it as the orders aren't coming fast enough yet to justify that rate increase, additional hangar space won't help in this case.

The orders aren't coming in at all -- that's the problem.
 
ikramerica
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:47 am

1989worstyear wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
Without a NEO no model survives 20 years. It’s not that the A380 didn’t last long, it’s that it could never achieve the sales numbers it needed to make sense.

Back during the launch phase, many of us accurately dismissed Airbus numbers regarding market size, because even then we knew that they were not accounting for the fact that most 747s were bought fir range and cargo ability, not passenger count. With smaller twins available with 747 range and cargo ability, building a bigger quad with comparably less usable cargo space was not meeting the replacement market in the way Airbus was projecting. This was borne out over 17 years with the A380s limited role as a 747 replacement, instead selling mostly to EK, a carrier with a unique business model who never flew 747s to begin with.


:shakehead:

Not true for the A320-200 CEO, which turned 30 in November, and still has a backlog of about 80.

Same goes for the A333, but is a few years newer.

These models are not the same as when introduced.

The A320 went through incredible step changes over the years.

The A330-300 is so much more capable then when launched. The current A333 is to the original as is the 77W is to the 773. Both are “same platform NEOs” by any standard.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 887
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:53 pm

Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:02 am

ikramerica wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
Without a NEO no model survives 20 years. It’s not that the A380 didn’t last long, it’s that it could never achieve the sales numbers it needed to make sense.

Back during the launch phase, many of us accurately dismissed Airbus numbers regarding market size, because even then we knew that they were not accounting for the fact that most 747s were bought fir range and cargo ability, not passenger count. With smaller twins available with 747 range and cargo ability, building a bigger quad with comparably less usable cargo space was not meeting the replacement market in the way Airbus was projecting. This was borne out over 17 years with the A380s limited role as a 747 replacement, instead selling mostly to EK, a carrier with a unique business model who never flew 747s to begin with.


:shakehead:

Not true for the A320-200 CEO, which turned 30 in November, and still has a backlog of about 80.

Same goes for the A333, but is a few years newer.

These models are not the same as when introduced.

The A320 went through incredible step changes over the years.

The A330-300 is so much more capable then when launched. The current A333 is to the original as is the 77W is to the 773. Both are “same platform NEOs” by any standard.


Agreed about the A333, but the A320 CEO never went through any "incredible" changes since the -100 to -200 transition; I'm not sure where people keep getting this bogus information from on here regarding this type.

LCD units 10-15 years after EIS are not significant.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
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sergegva
Posts: 255
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:20 am

QueenoftheSkies wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
It'll be a sad day when they announce the end of A380 production, but I will still have plenty of time to fly on one I hope. (Me not the A380 in-service).


But for how long? Those operating A380s won’t enjoy the longevity of the 747 in service.


I bet the A380 will fly longer than the 747-8i. Emirates, for example, cannot do without the A380 at all as long as DXB is at its maximum capacity. If they replace their A380s with 777Xs, as some people think, they would suddenly lose a third of their market share!
Last edited by sergegva on Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
WIederling
Posts: 9312
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:21 am

YellowJ wrote:
Strato2 wrote:

Boeing could not get a carrier to take the 747-8 even if they gave them away free.


Interesting considering a few airlines did take them. None of whom have developed buyer's remorse like we've seen with the A380.

LH dropped one frame from the fixed order. under the pretext: "zerbastelt"
LH transferred historic 748i options to the 777X purchase.
From the airline that had strong up front influence on the design that is remarkable buyers remorse.
Murphy is an optimist
 
StudiodeKadent
Posts: 430
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:30 am

Wow. Given the QR announcement and Emirates' negotiation fall-throughs, it does look like the A380 writing is on the wall.

Sad. The A380 is a pleasure to fly in.

But the purpose of the A380 essentially no longer exists in a world of route fragmentation, long-range point-to-point, and new runways being developed at several critical airports (LHR and HKG are both getting new runways, and Haneda seems to be getting more slots). The most successful A380 user employed the jet in a way that was not foreseen by the manufacturer (Emirates used it to build their own megahub).

It seems that, yes, the A380 is doomed. Fantastic jet, but suited for a very niche role. A niche that has eroded over time.
 
WIederling
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:34 am

1989worstyear wrote:
LCD units 10-15 years after EIS are not significant.


The naive observer not aided by PR leaflets
will probably only notice the superficial changes
like changed decals and the move from CRT to LCD visuals.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Kikko19
Posts: 681
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:56 am

will Airbus develop another big twin or just improve the a350 (a3511-a352)?? or the 77x will be the biggest and better plane for the near future?
 
WIederling
Posts: 9312
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:11 am

Kikko19 wrote:
will Airbus develop another big twin or just improve the a350 (a3511-a352)?? or the 77x will be the biggest and better plane for the near future?


Next big fully new thing will be laminar flow dominated wings on a NBish aircraft?
Murphy is an optimist
 
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BlueSky1976
Posts: 1890
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:18 am

Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:52 am

Kikko19 wrote:
will Airbus develop another big twin or just improve the a350 (a3511-a352)?? or the 77x will be the biggest and better plane for the near future?


It's possible that with rumoured, planned "A350neo", Airbus could introduce another stretch, above -1000. Newer engines, lighter aiframe = 777-9 killer.
The queen of the skies is dead.
 
brindabella
Posts: 620
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:08 pm

SC430 wrote:
brindabella wrote:
Erebus wrote:

Perhaps for bragging rights, yes. But deep down, I think Boeing would have been happy with Airbus being preoccupied with such a money pit that has been a drag on its resources. One has to wonder what they have to contend with afterwards.


Precisely. :yes:

Will give Airbus much greater freedom and opportunity:

1) there is clearly a great deal of Engineering & Design talent within Airbus which is currently under-utilised.
2) Airbus should become much stronger financially in the near future.

Watch out Boeing!

cheers


Plenty of talent - just no capital to put it to use.


Historically, Capital availability has never, ever been a problem for AB. ;) ;)

Whether there was in fact a business case or not!

However, to add a little bit, 2019-20 is an era which may well test Enders, Faury and their teams to the limit.
I hardly need to enumerate the likely ;powerful challenges to AB over coming year or two.

Nevertheless I am very bullish that dumping the whale will eventually significantly free AB to reach it's true potential.

cheers
Billy
 
Arion640
Posts: 3059
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:09 pm

DL717 wrote:
PITingres wrote:
Unlike many here, I did not enjoy flying the A380 in the least. From a product management standpoint it clearly missed the mark; I bet the engineers working on it would have liked a second chance to do it a bit differently. Still, it was a remarkable airplane.


I agree. It redefined cattle call. Flew it twice, completely nuts boarding. Interior? Nothing special.


Better than 9 abreast 787 any day 8-)
 
jeffrey0032j
Topic Author
Posts: 804
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:16 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
Kikko19 wrote:
will Airbus develop another big twin or just improve the a350 (a3511-a352)?? or the 77x will be the biggest and better plane for the near future?


It's possible that with rumoured, planned "A350neo", Airbus could introduce another stretch, above -1000. Newer engines, lighter aiframe = 777-9 killer.

What is the demand for the market segment? If people are saying that the 777X and 350-1000 are not selling, what is the chances of the A350 stretch working? And how expensive would it be compared to the 777X? The rumour was Boeing approached the airlines asking them whether they wanted a composite 777X at a much higher price, the airlines got back and said no, Boeing stuck to aluminium for the 777X.

The widebody sweet spot was the A330/787 sized aircraft which is now in Boeing's hands. If I were Airbus, I would target this segment first before the A350.
 
Boeing74741R
Posts: 1404
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:22 pm

Strato2 wrote:
ScottB wrote:
You really have to wonder how much larger potential variants of the A350 have been hobbled by a desire to not compete in the marketplace with A380.


What marketplace? The 777-9 itself has stopped selling completely and the A350-1000 has not sold a lot either. Evidence points out that there is not much demand for an aircraft larger than A350-900.


Give it a few years and I suspect we'll see more A350-1000 sales as the 2020's will be around the time a lot of 777-300ER operators start thinking about replacements. The 777-9 has a lot of capability that not all airlines need and you can tell who it's aimed for when you look at the current order book.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2645
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:22 pm

Turnhouse1 wrote:
Obvious projects for Airbus to focus on short term would be.

A350-1100, a 316T A350 stretched to 79.9m to compete with the 777-9X, should be more efficient and still have reasonable range now they're not worried about cannibalising A380 sales.


Very strong point. No doubt executives have been somewhat limiting scope for A350 development to try and protect A380.
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