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WayexTDI
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:20 pm

N328KF wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
N328KF wrote:

Sure, but those 747-8Is will have a long lifetime as converted freighters.

Who is going to pay the development cost for the -8i freighter conversion? At the max, 47 frames can be converted; that's a lot of money just in R&D per frame...


I bet it won't be as hard to figure out 747-8I conversion as it would be A380 conversion. After all, they do have a template to draw upon (747-400BCF.)

The -8 fuselage is longer than the -400; that will require a lot of computation, very close to starting from scratch (unless they want to overengineer it, which will drastically add weight and reduce payload).
Still, 47 frames max to recoup cost, plus the actual conversion cost and margin. Pricey
 
62k64k
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:43 pm

Bloomberg have more details:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ozen-years

"Emirates now plans to take fewer than 20 A380s, a deeper cut than originally planned, one of the people said" and "Output would cease by 2021 or 2022"
 
YellowJ
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:01 pm

WIederling wrote:
YellowJ wrote:
Strato2 wrote:

Boeing could not get a carrier to take the 747-8 even if they gave them away free.


Interesting considering a few airlines did take them. None of whom have developed buyer's remorse like we've seen with the A380.

LH dropped one frame from the fixed order. under the pretext: "zerbastelt"
LH transferred historic 748i options to the 777X purchase.
From the airline that had strong up front influence on the design that is remarkable buyers remorse.


Yes, the test-bed frame. Now let's count how many airlines reduced their fixed A380's on order. I'm sure it'll be greater than one.
I mean Lufthansa alone cancelled 3, since you mentioned them.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/lufthansa-cuts-back-a380-order-391342/https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/lufthansa-cuts-back-a380-order-391342/

So I guess if they felt buyer's remorse with the 748, they must have felt deep buyer's anguish with their A380 order.
 
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Finn350
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:20 pm

ScottB wrote:
Erebus wrote:
But deep down, I think Boeing would have been happy with Airbus being preoccupied with such a money pit that has been a drag on its resources. One has to wonder what they have to contend with afterwards.


Absolutely! Boeing was lucky that Airbus was bogged down with developing the A380 and A340NG while they themselves were massively screwing up the 787 development. If Airbus had had the resources to respond quickly with a clean-sheet product to match or beat the 787, that disaster might have brought Boeing down. Instead, thanks to constrained development resources, Airbus trotted out several A350 iterations that were little more than warmed-over A330s and the customer response was vocal and negative. Boeing got several years of breathing room and the A350 came to market probably half a decade later than it should have.


A350 program execution was near perfect as Airbus had learnt its lesson with the A380 program. So in that sense A380 contributed to the success of the A350. Boeing had not developed a clean sheet design since 777, and that contributed to the botched execution of the 787 program.
 
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:21 pm

Finn350 wrote:
ScottB wrote:
Erebus wrote:
But deep down, I think Boeing would have been happy with Airbus being preoccupied with such a money pit that has been a drag on its resources. One has to wonder what they have to contend with afterwards.


Absolutely! Boeing was lucky that Airbus was bogged down with developing the A380 and A340NG while they themselves were massively screwing up the 787 development. If Airbus had had the resources to respond quickly with a clean-sheet product to match or beat the 787, that disaster might have brought Boeing down. Instead, thanks to constrained development resources, Airbus trotted out several A350 iterations that were little more than warmed-over A330s and the customer response was vocal and negative. Boeing got several years of breathing room and the A350 came to market probably half a decade later than it should have.


A350 program execution was near perfect as Airbus had learnt its lesson with the A380 program. So in that sense A380 contributed to the success of the A350. Boeing had not developed a clean sheet design since 777, and that contributed to the botched execution of the 787 program.

And then proceeded to unlearn part of that lesson with the A320neo...well at least they recovered.
 
musman9853
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:26 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
BlueSky1976 wrote:
gregn21 wrote:
Who would’ve thought the 747-8 would outlive the 380. Ha!


A380 sales still obliterated those of 747-8i. Which is a good thing. And it is Airbus Industrie that will go down in history as the one who built largest passenger jetliner.


So far. Records are made to be broken, and China is a big country with grand ambitions. But ya, for a relatively narrow window, they built the biggest.



yeah its only a matter of time before 200k lbf engines would be feasible.
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777PHX
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:28 pm

N328KF wrote:
The difference is that the MD-11 never had the aurora or fanbase (from customers, not avgeeks) that the A380 does.


I can also name a few world class airlines that aren't crazy about the A380s they have and don't want any more.
 
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Stitch
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:01 pm

Finn350 wrote:
A350 program execution was near perfect as Airbus had learnt its lesson with the A380 program.


Compared to the 787 execution, perhaps. But the A350XWB still ended up over a year late in EIS and the production ramp was a fair bit slower than planned. That being said, Airbus overall executed the program quite well and giving themselves a longer development schedule likely helped as it allowed them to absorb certain "unknown unknowns" (like lightning dissipation) a fair bit more gracefully than Boeing's compressed schedule did.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:15 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Bricktop wrote:

Since Leeham tends to highlight the sales opportunities of Airbus products and are HQ'd in Toulouse, I expect this means the A380 production death warrent has been signed. It is a question of when the last one goes down the line.

Lightsaber


It is like Leeham is HQ'd in Toulouse, but actually is outside of Seattle. Scott Hamilton lives on Bainbridge Island, a ferry ride from downtown Seattle.
 
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:28 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Bricktop wrote:

Since Leeham tends to highlight the sales opportunities of Airbus products and are HQ'd in Toulouse, I expect this means the A380 production death warrent has been signed. It is a question of when the last one goes down the line.

Lightsaber


It is like Leeham is HQ'd in Toulouse, but actually is outside of Seattle. Scott Hamilton lives on Bainbridge Island, a ferry ride from downtown Seattle.

I'm embarrassed at my error:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-hamilton-29202615

However, he has been very positive on the A346 and A388 in the past to ... A weird degree. More negative on the MAX than sales indicate he should have been. Oops on me assuming.

I'm curious as to the total EK accepts and how many A350 as well as the size distribution. And 787 vs. 777x distribution.

I guess we start to find out tomorrow.

Lightsaber
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:31 pm

Stitch wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
A350 program execution was near perfect as Airbus had learnt its lesson with the A380 program.


Compared to the 787 execution, perhaps. But the A350XWB still ended up over a year late in EIS and the production ramp was a fair bit slower than planned. That being said, Airbus overall executed the program quite well and giving themselves a longer development schedule likely helped as it allowed them to absorb certain "unknown unknowns" (like lightning dissipation) a fair bit more gracefully than Boeing's compressed schedule did.

Airbus did exceptionally well in the A350. The delays cost Airbus, but not enough to be worth discussing.

The #1 issue of the A350 is rumored to be a lack of near term delivery slots. The EY cancelation might be a gift in disguise.

Lightsaber
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cledaybuck
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:38 pm

Stitch wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
A350 program execution was near perfect as Airbus had learnt its lesson with the A380 program.


Compared to the 787 execution, perhaps. But the A350XWB still ended up over a year late in EIS and the production ramp was a fair bit slower than planned. That being said, Airbus overall executed the program quite well and giving themselves a longer development schedule likely helped as it allowed them to absorb certain "unknown unknowns" (like lightning dissipation) a fair bit more gracefully than Boeing's compressed schedule did.
Not to mention they took 200 firm orders for a plane they then decided not to build and then had to renegotiate all those sales. I'm sure the prices of those aren't good, and I suspect it is part of the reason AA was able to cancel fairly easily.
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morrisond
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:06 pm

lightsaber wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Since Leeham tends to highlight the sales opportunities of Airbus products and are HQ'd in Toulouse, I expect this means the A380 production death warrent has been signed. It is a question of when the last one goes down the line.

Lightsaber


It is like Leeham is HQ'd in Toulouse, but actually is outside of Seattle. Scott Hamilton lives on Bainbridge Island, a ferry ride from downtown Seattle.

I'm embarrassed at my error:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-hamilton-29202615

However, he has been very positive on the A346 and A388 in the past to ... A weird degree. More negative on the MAX than sales indicate he should have been. Oops on me assuming.

I'm curious as to the total EK accepts and how many A350 as well as the size distribution. And 787 vs. 777x distribution.

I guess we start to find out tomorrow.

Lightsaber



I'm guessing about 18 more A380 will be delivered. 8 in assembly or on the flight line - 8 for which parts have already been made plus another 2 that may have long lead items already produced. 3 for ANA - 15 for EK and that will be it.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:07 pm

gregn21 wrote:
Who would’ve thought the 747-8 would outlive the 380. Ha!

I did. And I made a bet with Keesje about it. Looks like I will win. And my reasoning was that neither passenger version would do well, but the 748F would.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
texl1649
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:08 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
A350 program execution was near perfect as Airbus had learnt its lesson with the A380 program.


Compared to the 787 execution, perhaps. But the A350XWB still ended up over a year late in EIS and the production ramp was a fair bit slower than planned. That being said, Airbus overall executed the program quite well and giving themselves a longer development schedule likely helped as it allowed them to absorb certain "unknown unknowns" (like lightning dissipation) a fair bit more gracefully than Boeing's compressed schedule did.

Airbus did exceptionally well in the A350. The delays cost Airbus, but not enough to be worth discussing.

The #1 issue of the A350 is rumored to be a lack of near term delivery slots. The EY cancelation might be a gift in disguise.

Lightsaber


It again bears noting that the A350 timeline factored in a total period matching the actual 787 one, not the planned 787 development which was such a fiasco. The first carbon frame/wing widebodies both took a looooong time to develop/produce/certify. I suspect the next ones will be much more efficient in all regards.
 
Antarius
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:17 pm

incitatus wrote:
BlueSky1976 wrote:
A380 sales still obliterated those of 747-8i. Which is a good thing. And it is Airbus Industrie that will go down in history as the one who built largest passenger jetliner.


I am pretty sure Airbus would have taken profits in lieu of that special place in history.


No kidding. The people here who are proud of records like this are the ones who would launch silly prestige routes to JFK and the likes.
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WayexTDI
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:33 pm

SEPilot wrote:
gregn21 wrote:
Who would’ve thought the 747-8 would outlive the 380. Ha!

I did. And I made a bet with Keesje about it. Looks like I will win. And my reasoning was that neither passenger version would do well, but the 748F would.

To quote someone else in another thread:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
“Do we have anymore of the ‘I called the failure of the A380 way back in the beginning’ medals left? We’re gonna need another one over here.”
 
oschkosch
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:51 pm

I wish people would get over it....I still think many on this forum that tend to "hate" the A380 have actually never flown in one. EK Business Class on an A380 is simpley amazing and I also book flights on EK when I can get an A380 instead of a 777, also in economy. And I know many people that think likewise.

It's sad to see this beauty maybe cease production.

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WIederling
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:11 pm

YellowJ wrote:
So I guess if they felt buyer's remorse with the 748, they must have felt deep buyer's anguish with their A380 order.


AFAIK LH stepped back from 1 frame ordered and dropped 20 options ( applied to 777X order again afaik )
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Finn350
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:19 pm

If the rumor is correct, last A380 frames will be produced ca 2021-2022. Last 747-8i was delivered in 2017. Given that last A380 frames will be around 5 years newer than last 747-8i frames, A380 could actually outlive 747-8i in revenue service?
 
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Stitch
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:22 pm

Finn350 wrote:
If the rumor is correct, last A380 frames will be produced ca 2021-2022. Last 747-8i was delivered in 2017. Given that last A380 frames will be around 5 years newer than last 747-8i frames, A380 could actually outlive 747-8i in revenue service?


It just depends on how long Lufthansa and Korean Air wish to operate their respective A380-800 and 747-8I fleets and how long Air China operates their non-VIP frames.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:46 pm

Finn350 wrote:
If the rumor is correct, last A380 frames will be produced ca 2021-2022. Last 747-8i was delivered in 2017. Given that last A380 frames will be around 5 years newer than last 747-8i frames, A380 could actually outlive 747-8i in revenue service?

The fact that the 748F is likely to be in production long after the A380 would indicate that factory support for the 748i will also likely last a lot longer. Most of the truly critical components are common to both versions. And if Boeing is still offering VIP aircraft that will cover even more. Seats, entertainment systems, galleys, lavs and the like can always be updated. LH, for one, has a habit of getting the last spark of life out of their aircraft.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
WIederling
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:46 pm

Stitch wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
If the rumor is correct, last A380 frames will be produced ca 2021-2022. Last 747-8i was delivered in 2017. Given that last A380 frames will be around 5 years newer than last 747-8i frames, A380 could actually outlive 747-8i in revenue service?


It just depends on how long Lufthansa and Korean Air wish to operate their respective A380-800 and 747-8I fleets and how long Air China operates their non-VIP frames.

I'd expect that LH will love their frames to death.
i.e. dumped with ~~120k hours. 22..24 years ol?
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lightsaber
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:53 pm

Stitch wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
If the rumor is correct, last A380 frames will be produced ca 2021-2022. Last 747-8i was delivered in 2017. Given that last A380 frames will be around 5 years newer than last 747-8i frames, A380 could actually outlive 747-8i in revenue service?


It just depends on how long Lufthansa and Korean Air wish to operate their respective A380-800 and 747-8I fleets and how long Air China operates their non-VIP frames.

For passenger frames, I cannot predict which will opperate longer:

Pros 748I:
1. Large MRO network built up by prior versions.
2. Commonality with historically long life 748F freighters.
3. Engine commonality with 787 has brought over PIPs and should have one more IMHO, partially to help 748F sales.
4. Prior passenger 747s have proven to have surprisingly long economic lives.

Cons 748I:
1. Potential for P2F conversion.
2. Other than freighters, no secondary market.
3. Highest value engine parts could be spares for 787. Recall over half the scrap value is the engines.

Pros A388:
1. 5 years newer
2. Better economics than 748I at high payload.
3. Flight deck commonality helps small sub-fleet economics.

Cons A388
1. Engines are rare birds. No future PIPs. Parts will be expensive unless exactly from prior engines.
2. MRO network is still learning the frame and there just isn't enough potential work to create a low bid.
3. Secondary market has one example.
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musman9853
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:05 pm

morrisond wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:

It is like Leeham is HQ'd in Toulouse, but actually is outside of Seattle. Scott Hamilton lives on Bainbridge Island, a ferry ride from downtown Seattle.

I'm embarrassed at my error:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-hamilton-29202615

However, he has been very positive on the A346 and A388 in the past to ... A weird degree. More negative on the MAX than sales indicate he should have been. Oops on me assuming.

I'm curious as to the total EK accepts and how many A350 as well as the size distribution. And 787 vs. 777x distribution.

I guess we start to find out tomorrow.

Lightsaber



I'm guessing about 18 more A380 will be delivered. 8 in assembly or on the flight line - 8 for which parts have already been made plus another 2 that may have long lead items already produced. 3 for ANA - 15 for EK and that will be it.


bloomberg reported today that they're gonna cancel the 20+16 order, as well as at least 15 of the earlier order for 50, which leaves about 15 on order.
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osupoke07
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:17 pm

musman9853 wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
BlueSky1976 wrote:

A380 sales still obliterated those of 747-8i. Which is a good thing. And it is Airbus Industrie that will go down in history as the one who built largest passenger jetliner.


So far. Records are made to be broken, and China is a big country with grand ambitions. But ya, for a relatively narrow window, they built the biggest.



yeah its only a matter of time before 200k lbf engines would be feasible.


Just imagine the rudder needed to handle a 100k lbf engine out scenario!
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musman9853
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:21 pm

osupoke07 wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

So far. Records are made to be broken, and China is a big country with grand ambitions. But ya, for a relatively narrow window, they built the biggest.



yeah its only a matter of time before 200k lbf engines would be feasible.


Just imagine the rudder needed to handle a 100k lbf engine out scenario!



just reuse the a380's :stirthepot:
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PlanesNTrains
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:35 pm

osupoke07 wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

So far. Records are made to be broken, and China is a big country with grand ambitions. But ya, for a relatively narrow window, they built the biggest.



yeah its only a matter of time before 200k lbf engines would be feasible.


Just imagine the rudder needed to handle a 100k lbf engine out scenario!


I’m just bitter because I wanted to see the A380-1000. Still do.
-Dave


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Arion640
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:37 pm

WIederling wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
If the rumor is correct, last A380 frames will be produced ca 2021-2022. Last 747-8i was delivered in 2017. Given that last A380 frames will be around 5 years newer than last 747-8i frames, A380 could actually outlive 747-8i in revenue service?


It just depends on how long Lufthansa and Korean Air wish to operate their respective A380-800 and 747-8I fleets and how long Air China operates their non-VIP frames.

I'd expect that LH will love their frames to death.
i.e. dumped with ~~120k hours. 22..24 years ol?


I expect the A380 will outlive the 747 in passenger service. BA have 28 year old 747-400’s knocking about so i expect they’ll take their A380’s to at least 25.
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Stitch
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:49 pm

osupoke07 wrote:
Just imagine the rudder needed to handle a 100k lbf engine out scenario!


Just look at a 777-300ER - each engine is generating 115k of thrust. Or an A350-1000, for that matter, as those engines are close to 100k each.

As for a 200k engine, which is what you might have meant... :angel:
 
osupoke07
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:02 am

Stitch wrote:
osupoke07 wrote:
Just imagine the rudder needed to handle a 100k lbf engine out scenario!


Just look at a 777-300ER - each engine is generating 115k of thrust. Or an A350-1000, for that matter, as those engines are close to 100k each.

As for a 200k engine, which is what you might have meant... :angel:


Ouch, yeah. I did the simple math wrong in my head. I meant 200k lbf.
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ScottB
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:29 am

62k64k wrote:
"Emirates now plans to take fewer than 20 A380s, a deeper cut than originally planned, one of the people said" and "Output would cease by 2021 or 2022"


To the best of my knowledge, EK is due to take five of the eight produced this year, and then is the only customer for the planned production rate of six per year. My gut instinct is that they'll take 17 (5 this year and 6/year for two subsequent years) which allows Airbus to close the books in 2021. Maybe the persistent rumors about BA are connected to Airbus making a last call take-it-or-leave-it offer to BA which might extend production into 2022.
 
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:40 am

So if I understand well, if they make the decision to stop the production line, they will have 18 units left waiting to be delivered: 3 for ANA and the last 15 for Emirates. I don't think the orders for Amadeo, and I don't recall who else, will be filled, at this point. If ANA wants more A380s they'll have to find second hand ones in the future. I could be wrong so you can correct me if I am.
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:43 am

777PHX wrote:
N328KF wrote:
The difference is that the MD-11 never had the aurora or fanbase (from customers, not avgeeks) that the A380 does.


I can also name a few world class airlines that aren't crazy about the A380s they have and don't want any more.


By “customers,” I meant passengers, but your point is valid given that.
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XT6Wagon
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:43 am

Arion640 wrote:

I expect the A380 will outlive the 747 in passenger service. BA have 28 year old 747-400’s knocking about so i expect they’ll take their A380’s to at least 25.


744 has the advantage of F models to support lower parts costs and economic troubles that delayed its replacement cycle.
748i has the advantage of F models to support lower parts costs...
A380 has the advantage of the frames going to the scrap yard early. Without F frames to hold the attention of parts makers, I'm not sure how long A380 specific parts will be around once EK has finished with theirs. Certainly not enough to make BA's fleet economical once the others are gone.
 
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Stitch
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:55 am

American 767 wrote:
So if I understand well, if they make the decision to stop the production line, they will have 18 units left waiting to be delivered: 3 for ANA and the last 15 for Emirates. I don't think the orders for Amadeo, and I don't recall who else, will be filled, at this point. If ANA wants more A380s they'll have to find second hand ones in the future. I could be wrong so you can correct me if I am.


IMO, the Amadeo order was a John Leahy sideshow to divert attention away from the A380 cancellations in years prior and was never intended to be consummated.

Air Accord was a shell company set up by the Russians to move the cancelled Transaero A380 orders over and I believe it is now as defunct as Transaero so no chance those will ever be delivered.

As for ANA, they arguably did not want the three they took from Skymark to get Skymarks Haneda slots so I do not see them jumping in at the last moment to order more.
 
EChid
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:05 am

XT6Wagon wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

I expect the A380 will outlive the 747 in passenger service. BA have 28 year old 747-400’s knocking about so i expect they’ll take their A380’s to at least 25.


744 has the advantage of F models to support lower parts costs and economic troubles that delayed its replacement cycle.
748i has the advantage of F models to support lower parts costs...
A380 has the advantage of the frames going to the scrap yard early. Without F frames to hold the attention of parts makers, I'm not sure how long A380 specific parts will be around once EK has finished with theirs. Certainly not enough to make BA's fleet economical once the others are gone.

The A380 also has the 'benefit' of probably having bad secondary market prospects, so if a carrier can't sell them or scrap them for much they may just decide to keep flying them.
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:11 am

Does anyone else feel the bittersweet irony of the A380's demise as we celebrate 50 years of the 747 (and also its demise) this week.
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smartplane
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:17 am

Wonder if the announcements tomorrow will include good news, like additional versions of the A320 and A350 family?

Where is STC today / tomorrow?
 
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:34 am

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Does anyone else feel the bittersweet irony of the A380's demise as we celebrate 50 years of the 747 (and also its demise) this week.
I wonder which flight will be the last four holer.
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:45 am

YouGeeElWhy wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Does anyone else feel the bittersweet irony of the A380's demise as we celebrate 50 years of the 747 (and also its demise) this week.
I wonder which flight will be the last four holer.


Perhaps Boeing's and Airbus' PR departments should get together and have one 748I and one A388 fly together into the sunset. A way to build solidarity together.
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musman9853
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:46 am

YouGeeElWhy wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Does anyone else feel the bittersweet irony of the A380's demise as we celebrate 50 years of the 747 (and also its demise) this week.
I wonder which flight will be the last four holer.


it'll almost certainly be the 747. new build 748s will be coming off the line until like 2023 at current orders. if the a380 dies in 2021 as has been reported, there's gonna be at least 2 more years of 747s being built. not to mention as freighters, they'll be flying for twice as long as the a380 will
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Slug71
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:25 am

The rumor I heard was 2025.
Guess we'll find out tomorrow.
 
Whalejet
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:44 am

A sad time for aviation. The A380 may have not been the most impressive plane when it came to its business case, nor even its appearance. But it was one of the best planes for passengers - lots of room and crazy stuff like bars and lounges. The existence of this plane got me into aviation in the first place because I was wowed by it (and the 747). Airbus bet big on the gamble on H2H transport - maybe in 30 years, they will be right.
 
JAAlbert
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:48 am

Finn350 wrote:
ScottB wrote:
Erebus wrote:
A350 program execution was near perfect as Airbus had learnt its lesson with the A380 program.


After what, two unsuccessful attempts? Both airplane manufacturers (and several others) have had big problems getting new models to market -- what does this have to do with the rumored demise of the A380?

Many experts, and arm-chair experts, have criticized the business case for the 380, but from an aviation enthusiast's view -- jeez, Airbus built the damn thing -- a double decker aircraft the size of a fricken apartment building! It is an astonishing bit of engineering getting something that big into the heavens and it took some dreamers and risk takers to get it built. Nothing wrong with dreamers and risk takers. It saddens me to see that the plane will not have the life its parents envisioned for it, but I am grateful we all were alive to see it fly - and for some lucky folks, to fly within it's cabin.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:10 am

Given the amount of time and work I've put into it, I feel entitled to a victory lap. Here's my analysis of A380CEO and NEO posted here 5 years ago:

WHAT TODO WITH THE A380.

If I am correct that a NEO won't change the competitive position of the A380, then Airbus has decide between three options:

1. Make no changes. This option could result in losing even EK's most recent 50-plane order, with the A380 program sunsetting around 2020. EK has been clear it wants at least a 10% improvement on the A380, and it is demonstrably not afraid of cancelling massive orders from Airbus (e.g. its 70-plane A350 cancellation). This option amounts to basically cancelling the program, albeit over the next 3-5 years.

2. Do the NEO. This option, if delayed to ~2021, would maintain the A380's currently weak position against its twin-engine competitors. EK may take ~20 planes a year at best, Airbus might have to heavily discount the plane to fill its current production rate of 3/month.

3. Do a radical makeover that would combine re-engining with a new wing and with fuselage modications.


viewtopic.php?f=5&t=774037#p11164485

I'm not saying I've been proven right re a new wing - we'll never know on that.
Despite all the flames thrown on this site, however, the A380 critics have been proven (or are about to be proven) conclusively right.
 
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IslandRob
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:20 am

Matt6461 wrote:
Despite all the flames thrown on this site, however, the A380 critics have been proven (or are about to be proven) conclusively right.


Thank goodness none of them will stoop to gloating. -ir
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LVISA
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:43 am

JAAlbert wrote:

Many experts, and arm-chair experts, have criticized the business case for the 380, but from an aviation enthusiast's view -- jeez, Airbus built the damn thing -- a double decker aircraft the size of a fricken apartment building! It is an astonishing bit of engineering getting something that big into the heavens and it took some dreamers and risk takers to get it built. Nothing wrong with dreamers and risk takers. It saddens me to see that the plane will not have the life its parents envisioned for it, but I am grateful we all were alive to see it fly - and for some lucky folks, to fly within it's cabin.


This. Very well put, thank you.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:57 am

LVISA wrote:
JAAlbert wrote:

Many experts, and arm-chair experts, have criticized the business case for the 380, but from an aviation enthusiast's view -- jeez, Airbus built the damn thing -- a double decker aircraft the size of a fricken apartment building! It is an astonishing bit of engineering getting something that big into the heavens and it took some dreamers and risk takers to get it built. Nothing wrong with dreamers and risk takers. It saddens me to see that the plane will not have the life its parents envisioned for it, but I am grateful we all were alive to see it fly - and for some lucky folks, to fly within it's cabin.


This. Very well put, thank you.


Nonsense.
Two decades before A380 EIS a poorer country flew a larger plane. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonov_An-225_Mriya
Technology has moral worth only insofar as it advances human welfare; the A380 was a blown opportunity to do so.
Only the most blinkered av-geek could value his subjective experience of the plane - or the experience of an oligarch in one of the Apartments - over the lost opportunity to further democratize air travel as a well-designed A380 should have done.
Due to A380's failure the airline ecosystem has been and will be dominated by smaller planes catering to the interests of a smaller, richer part of the population.
 
EuroKick
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:10 am

It's done. EK to order A330neo and A350.

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... rders.html
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