Austin787
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:44 pm

Since the A380 was launched, I always felt it was a very big airplane for a very small market (super hub to super hub).

ILNFlyer wrote:
The pilots of the last ferry flight of the last A-380 will be carried home on a 748....... :duck: sorry, couldn't resist....

Then the pilots of the last 748 ferry flight will return home on an ex-Northwest DC-9. :lol: :D
 
Antarius
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:44 pm

Arion640 wrote:
africawings wrote:
If we are being honest; I recall when the A380 program was announced in 2000. It was pitting (then new) Point to Point travel (787) against traditional Hub and Spoke routings, which the A380 represented. Looks like Point to Point travel won handily as Boeing predicted the trend would go 19 years ago.


Point to Point travel has not won. As the majority of 787 flights start and end at a hub.


Yes. But a new market of longhaul hub-point has emerged and won. Previously, you'd fly LHR-JFK-PIT or NRT-LAX-SAN for example (using OW routes as I'm more familiar with them). Now BA flies to MCO, PIT, SAN, LAS etc. bypassing the need for a partner or second hub. JL flies to SAN.

So yes, it isn't truly P2P, but the 787 did materially change the nature of flying.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD MEL DEN BLR MAA DEL KTM YYZ MEX
 
douwd20
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:51 pm

Does this mean every A380 Emirates retires is headed for scrapping?
Last edited by douwd20 on Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
747megatop
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:54 pm

BTW, this makes an interesting read. It kind of lays out and definitely puts the whole A380 debacle in perspective -

https://www.sauder.ubc.ca/Faculty/Resea ... irbus.ashx

On another note, thinking from a pure business perspective of how well a company is run & managed one would ask the question & rightfully so - 1st the A340 and now the A380; 2 aircraft that came to a premature end; what the heck is going on? Who is running this company? Granted they have 2 wonderful products in A320 and A330 but we saw what happend with Lockheed & MD when they got their bets wrong. One exited the commercial aircraft space and the other went out of business in the commercial airplanes sector before being purchased by Boeing mainly for it's defense business.
 
Antarius
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:58 pm

747megatop wrote:
BTW, this makes an interesting read. It kind of lays out and definitely puts the whole A380 debacle in perspective -

https://www.sauder.ubc.ca/Faculty/Resea ... irbus.ashx

On another note, thinking from a pure business perspective of how well a company is run & managed one would ask the question & rightfully so - 1st the A340 and now the A380; 2 aircraft that came to a premature end; what the heck is going on? Who is running this company? Granted they have 2 wonderful products in A320 and A330 but we saw what happend with Lockheed & MD when they got their bets wrong. One exited the commercial aircraft space and the other went out of business in the commercial airplanes sector before being purchased by Boeing mainly for it's defense business.


The a340 did hit a premature end, but it isn't fair to lump it into the same category as a a380. The 343 was co-developed with the a333; the latter was a big success and its smaller sibling the a332 as well. The a345 and 346 were mistakes, but IMO, more akin to the 748i. But the core a340 (which was in tandem with the a330) was/is a very successful program.

The a380 stands alone as a collasal cleansheet cockup.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD MEL DEN BLR MAA DEL KTM YYZ MEX
 
Ziyulu
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:08 am

Were any US carriers initially interested in the A380?
 
LH707330
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:09 am

Antarius wrote:
747megatop wrote:
BTW, this makes an interesting read. It kind of lays out and definitely puts the whole A380 debacle in perspective -

https://www.sauder.ubc.ca/Faculty/Resea ... irbus.ashx

On another note, thinking from a pure business perspective of how well a company is run & managed one would ask the question & rightfully so - 1st the A340 and now the A380; 2 aircraft that came to a premature end; what the heck is going on? Who is running this company? Granted they have 2 wonderful products in A320 and A330 but we saw what happend with Lockheed & MD when they got their bets wrong. One exited the commercial aircraft space and the other went out of business in the commercial airplanes sector before being purchased by Boeing mainly for it's defense business.


The a340 did hit a premature end, but it isn't fair to lump it into the same category as a a380. The 343 was co-developed with the a333; the latter was a big success and its smaller sibling the a332 as well. The a345 and 346 were mistakes, but IMO, more akin to the 748i. But the core a340 (which was in tandem with the a330) was/is a very successful program.

The a380 stands alone as a collasal cleansheet cockup.

What harmed the A340-300 was a couple of things:
1. Timing: it launched into the 1991 recession when NA carriers were broke (NW and CO canceled their orders), so many airlines didn't buy until later on when the 777-200ER was around
2. The lack of engine price competition (the 777 had three engine vendors engaged in a price war while Snecma was having financial issues and didn't want to play ball)
3. Fully-optimized engines on the 777 (the CFM56-5C was a refanned engine that got pressed into service when the Superfan was canceled)

The 340NG were a mix of bad idea (stretching an optimized frame too far), subpar engine (T500 was a scaled T800 with a T700 fan), and a great competing engine (the 115B beat spec by 4% IIRC).

The 380 was overbuilt for the stretch, and ran into its own issues as well, as documented exhaustively here and elsewhere....
 
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Stitch
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:10 am

Ziyulu wrote:
Were any US carriers initially interested in the A380?


I don't know if any expressed formal interest, but I could see Airbus considering 747-400 operators United and Northwest as potential customers.
 
Austin787
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:14 am

747megatop wrote:
BTW, this makes an interesting read. It kind of lays out and definitely puts the whole A380 debacle in perspective -

https://www.sauder.ubc.ca/Faculty/Resea ... irbus.ashx

On another note, thinking from a pure business perspective of how well a company is run & managed one would ask the question & rightfully so - 1st the A340 and now the A380; 2 aircraft that came to a premature end; what the heck is going on? Who is running this company? Granted they have 2 wonderful products in A320 and A330 but we saw what happend with Lockheed & MD when they got their bets wrong. One exited the commercial aircraft space and the other went out of business in the commercial airplanes sector before being purchased by Boeing mainly for it's defense business.

Ending the A340 and A380 doesn't mean Airbus is in trouble. The A340 actually did well, it just got outclassed after the A330 was upgraded, plus the 777 and A350 came to the market. As for the A380, one could argue admitting mistakes and cutting losses is a sign the company is being well run and managed.
 
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Erebus
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:15 am

United787 wrote:
The Whale has been beached, RIP.


No! Not yet.

With today's announcement, no new whales will be conceived and none will be born after 2021. The then current population will gradually dwindle down over the next decade or so until the last one beaches itself, the remains of which are hopefully preserved in a museum. :airplane:
 
jagraham
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:25 am

Eyad89 wrote:
jagraham wrote:

Going to Europe or most of Africa it's fuel burn per seat is actually less than the A350.



I really doubt that, unless you are including the A339 cheaper purchase costs in the per seat calculations.


Airbus said that up to 2 hours, the A333 is most efficient. Between 2 and 4 hours, the A339 is most efficient. 5 hours and beyond is the domain of the A350. This appears to be weight related, specifically what it takes to get the plane up to cruise altitude. The A333 being lightest (OEW wise), then the A339, then the A359.

Also please note that the A339 has Trent 7000s, which are Trent 1000-TENs with bleed air. The core is a scaled Trent WXB core, so the SFC difference is solely the fan size difference. Only a few percent.
 
talonone
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:27 am

As an a380 fan, I can wonder: can everyone imagine an A380, twin-engine!? Let's say a Scaled up ultra-fan!?
Yeah, I know it is a dream, but heck, the aviation industry started with a dream!
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DfwRevolution
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:42 am

Antarius wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
africawings wrote:
If we are being honest; I recall when the A380 program was announced in 2000. It was pitting (then new) Point to Point travel (787) against traditional Hub and Spoke routings, which the A380 represented. Looks like Point to Point travel won handily as Boeing predicted the trend would go 19 years ago.


Point to Point travel has not won. As the majority of 787 flights start and end at a hub.


Yes. But a new market of longhaul hub-point has emerged and won. Previously, you'd fly LHR-JFK-PIT or NRT-LAX-SAN for example (using OW routes as I'm more familiar with them). Now BA flies to MCO, PIT, SAN, LAS etc. bypassing the need for a partner or second hub. JL flies to SAN.

So yes, it isn't truly P2P, but the 787 did materially change the nature of flying.


Perhaps the most stark example is LHR-AUS, which debut using a 787-8. This route overflies two alliance hubs - ORD and DFW - with virtually no detour.

I also think that the argument between Point-to-Point and Hub-to-Point is purely semantic. Go look at the marketing literature from the moment Boeing unveiled the 7E7 and touted the future for Point-to-Point. Each of these city pairs involves an airport we would conventionally describe as a hub:

"We know that people prefer to fly directly to their destination," Bair said. "The 7E7 will let more people do that. We estimate that there are more than 400 city pairs that could be served non-stop efficiently for the first time with the 7E7."

For example, airlines could provide service on the following non-stop routes: Atlanta-Athens, Newark-Rio de Janeiro, Vancouver-Munich, Washington, D.C.-Rome, San Francisco-Milan, Helsinki-Shanghai, Paris-Minneapolis, Dubai-Taipei, London-Fukuoka, Munich-Singapore.


https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2003-06-16 ... Dreamliner

Whether a route like LHR-PIT is P2P or H2P is inconsequential.
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:47 am

talonone wrote:
As an a380 fan, I can wonder: can everyone imagine an A380, twin-engine!? Let's say a Scaled up ultra-fan!?
Yeah, I know it is a dream, but heck, the aviation industry started with a dream!


You mean the Boeing double decker composite twin that will replace the 779?
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compensateme
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:49 am

Stitch wrote:
Ziyulu wrote:
Were any US carriers initially interested in the A380?


I don't know if any expressed formal interest, but I could see Airbus considering 747-400 operators United and Northwest as potential customers.


Airbus made at least two sales calls on the 380 to MSP. Here's an article on one:

https://www.twincities.com/2007/11/27/a ... reluctant/
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:53 am

deltadc9 wrote:
FlightLevel360 wrote:
This is the stupidest move in all of aviation history. They will regret it.
Shame to the airline CEOs who listen to wall street and didn't buy the A380.

They listen to their fleet planners and accountants.

Listening to, and serving, the Shareholders is the CEO’s primary job. Accountants and fleet planners are hired to help the CEO serve the shareholders and make them money. Running an expensive-to-operate airplane when you could use a less-expensive-to-operate airplane is a dereliction of that duty.

I suspect that responsibility to shareholders is why no US airline operates the type.
 
multimark
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:10 am

SQ317 wrote:
Not adding anything to the discussion, but a terrible shame for passengers. I'm not interested in the A vs B nonsense, the A380 is by far the most comfortable plane I've flown on in all my years. Airbus made a lot of missteps with the programme over the years and it's a pity it didn't work out.


Ditto. A remarkably quiet and comfortably riding plane.

It makes me sad that dreaming big seems to be no longer in the cards for aviation.
 
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TheLion
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:10 am

Just about the most gobsmacking thread in a.net history! :kiss2:

It’s rather late in the British Isles so I’m off to bed, but will add my thoughts to the throng tomorrow.

Meanwhile...have to say that the surprise is that there’s “only” 500+ comments in a 24 hour period ;)
Last edited by TheLion on Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:11 am

musman9853 wrote:
dont forget the can airbus restart a380 production threads!

Where will they store the tooling? :-)

osiris30 wrote:
For anyone not around at the time, you won't remember that the 380 was basically launched with a lot of hubris and wang-waving. It was never REALLY about the business case in my eyes. It was about proving Airbus could build it and have the 'biggest'. Well, congrats to those that were responsible; you built the biggest passenger AC ever, with quite possibly the largest financial failure of an aircraft (in hard $) as well. 2 for 1!

In summary, if you like a healthy Airbus, there is a LOT of good about this cancellation. I like a healthy Airbus, and a healthy Boeing. That is what will drive forward technology and fuel savings and hopefully a little pax comfort thrown in.

:checkmark:

ikramerica wrote:
I’m from the airnet previous generation, where discussions were more informed. An OG as the kids say. The forums (searchable) go back to 2005, but the discussion didn’t start then. A lot of data and research was presented back then. There was no Twitter for instant comments.

I don’t gamble. I come to conclusions based on knowledge. Even I overestimated the demand, but in 2005 nobody could quite fathom the depths of the global recession that was on the horizon, nor the delays Airbus would face due to CAD problems. An on time A380 during a normal boom bust cycle might have sold 400. Maybe.

But that’s the problem with building the biggest of something. Any economic hiccups, and the biggest/most expensive things are the hardest to continue to justify.

Indeed. I kept pointing out that the first thing sent to the desert during the economic hiccups was the biggest / most expensive plane. Seemed people just didn't want to hear it.

Speaking of OG and data, here's how Airbus was viewing the A380 program circa 2006, including retrospective:

Image

Image

Image

Ref: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=575919&start=100#p8658141

They were still looking forward to delivering 741 A380s by 2021.

Turns out they were off by a factor of three.

They were looking forward to an internal rate of return of 13%.

Looks like they were off by a good 13% or so.

By their own accounting, EUR 12.5B invested, without considering what others spent (engine and other vendors, regional governments, airports, etc).

That's a big swing and a big miss.
Last edited by Revelation on Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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precure787
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:16 am

bigjku wrote:
smartplane wrote:
precure787 wrote:
Emirates have stated that they'd retire the A380s 12 years after each unit was delivered. With that in mind, Emirates would retire their last A380 in 2033 (predicted). At least the 747s would still be flying when all A380s are retired from service (although the former would continue as a freighter, including the 747-8BCF). That being said, there will be no A380 P2F.

But now is now.

They still have undelivered A380's to finance, and keep faith with existing leasors.

My bet is they will add 2-3 years to existing A380's (except early builds), and in return, leasors will soften their end of lease conditions and payments.


It makes sense for everyone to cooperate on this. The value of the returned planes will be mostly spare parts and the biggest spare parts user will be EK. I would imagine they would like to keep 40-60 running as long as possible.


I think it's likely that EK would be the longest A380 operator. NH was the last airline that have placed orders for the A380, but would likely retire those superjumbos shortly before EK retired their last A380. Additionally, Japan's declining population, as well as the bullet train (Shinkansen) competition on domestic routes, would've meant that VLAs are economically unviable in the Japanese airline market. JAL retired their 747s in 2011 as part of bankruptcy restructuring, while ANA retired theirs on March 2014.
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PC12Fan
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:23 am

Finn350 wrote:
africawings wrote:
If we are being honest; I recall when the A380 program was announced in 2000. It was pitting (then new) Point to Point travel (787) against traditional Hub and Spoke routings, which the A380 represented. Looks like Point to Point travel won handily as Boeing predicted the trend would go 19 years ago.


In 2000 Boeing forecast that there would be 1,010 deliveries of the 747/A3XX aircraft during 2000-2019.

Source, p. 45 http://www.as777.com/data/manufacturer/ ... g_2000.pdf

It seems Boeing grossly overestimated VLA demand for this time period.


With all due respect, so did Airbus. As both sides now know, bigger isn't always better.
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JustSomeDood
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:30 am

Finn350 wrote:
africawings wrote:
If we are being honest; I recall when the A380 program was announced in 2000. It was pitting (then new) Point to Point travel (787) against traditional Hub and Spoke routings, which the A380 represented. Looks like Point to Point travel won handily as Boeing predicted the trend would go 19 years ago.


In 2000 Boeing forecast that there would be 1,010 deliveries of the 747/A3XX aircraft during 2000-2019.

Source, p. 45 http://www.as777.com/data/manufacturer/ ... g_2000.pdf

It seems Boeing grossly overestimated VLA demand for this time period.


Both did, but A's forecasts were much worse off (1735 deliveries of 400+seaters vs 1010), and more importantly, was likely used as justification for designing a clean-sheet VLA so large and with capacity for larger stretches. Boeing stop differentiating seat counts above 400 seats in their forecast, implying larger seat categories were still insignificant.

Despite the fact that Airbus forecasters have reduced their
projections of long-term passenger traffic growth by one-tenth of a
percentage point, the 575 500-seaters, 404 600-seaters, 223 800-
seaters and 33 1,000-seaters for which a need is forecast in twenty
years' time represent a slight increase compared with last year's
GMF. (Note that the maximum exit-limited seat count in a nine-
door A3XX is 990 seats.)
 
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IslandRob
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:35 am

precure787 wrote:
Additionally, Japan's declining population, as well as the bullet train (Shinkansen) competition on domestic routes, would've meant that VLAs are economically unviable in the Japanese airline market.


As good as the Shinkansen trains are, I don't think there's any plan to extend service to Honolulu, which is where ANA plans to send their A380s. -ir
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juliuswong
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:42 am

musman9853 wrote:
juliuswong wrote:
Five years down the road, we will have some newbies posting "Why didn't A380 sell well?" "Would a stretch A380 make it more viable?" "Would A380 survived without EK large order? " "Why only three A380 for ANA? "..

God bless us all.


dont forget the can airbus restart a380 production threads!

Lol, yes, that too. Maybe in next ten years, next round of mass movement of humans, or a major shift in megalopolis, we shall see the need of A380 again.
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MSPSXMFLIER
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:46 am

BlueSky1976 wrote:
gregn21 wrote:
Who would’ve thought the 747-8 would outlive the 380. Ha!


A380 sales still obliterated those of 747-8i. Which is a good thing. And it is Airbus Industrie that will go down in history as the one who built largest passenger jetliner.


Airbus built the biggest jet, so what? It sounds rather much like a pyrrhic victory. Airbus fell way short of the number of jets they said would likely be built, which I believe was stated to be around 700. An article I read gave the final number of aircraft to be built as 313. Making the announcement of the end of the A380 line is a bitter pill for them to swallow. It was a gamble that never paid off for Airbus, while just the opposite occurred for Boeing and their Dreamliner program. It will be very interesting to see what the new Airbus management team does from this point onward.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:04 am

What I find interesting about the numbers is that in spite of the delays, changes to production infrastructure they still managed to maintain the cash break even number of 250...
 
morrisond
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:05 am

What are they going to do with the Factories? That is the biggest question now.

Do they need the space to expand A350 production or are the existing facilities big enough to go up to rate 14 or higher?

Maybe relocate the British wing factories when Brexit finishes?
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:31 am

747megatop wrote:
BTW, this makes an interesting read. It kind of lays out and definitely puts the whole A380 debacle in perspective -

https://www.sauder.ubc.ca/Faculty/Resea ... irbus.ashx

On another note, thinking from a pure business perspective of how well a company is run & managed one would ask the question & rightfully so - 1st the A340 and now the A380; 2 aircraft that came to a premature end; what the heck is going on? Who is running this company? Granted they have 2 wonderful products in A320 and A330 but we saw what happend with Lockheed & MD when they got their bets wrong. One exited the commercial aircraft space and the other went out of business in the commercial airplanes sector before being purchased by Boeing mainly for it's defense business.


lightsaber wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
flee wrote:
As Airbus have found out, even firm contracted orders can disappear. This is quite worrying because until the aircraft are delivered and paid for, we cannot assume their orders are really firm.

Expect Airbus (and most likely Boeing) to start making escape clause much harder once the order is firmed up (if it's not already done). Fool me once... right?

The stricter the clauses, the more an airline waits to firm other contracts before signing. We should take a step back and realize why EK and EY were given the terms they we're.

If terms become stricter, small airlines will place small near term orders. The flexibility was to have airlines commit to longer term orders which means a larger sale.

EY and EK kept to their 'firm' orders for the A333 and 77W. For the A346, Airbus was in violation of contract, yet EK took all A345 and EY all A345/A346.
EY took all firm A380. During a downturn, both Boeing and Airbus offered less firm sales to EK and EY to keep their lines going.

Most of today's firm orders in the 1980s would be called options. From what I see, today's firm orders cost about the same (as a percentage of Airframe sales price). For the early payments are for risk on long lead items contracts.

Today vendors receive a guarantee of 2.5 years of orders at the current production, unless a ramp down contract is signed. Hence why I believe 2019, 2020, and 50% of 2021 we're already committed to for the A380. So Airbus has to buy those parts. In return,. parts are discounted 20% or more by vendors.

I'll give an engine example. I know coffee a bucket of parts for the CFM-56 for say (I'm altering the numbers to not violate an NDA):
1. Cost to CFM to make an engine:. $100,000
2. Cost for vendors to make: $104,000
3. Cost for vendor to overhaul: $30,000
4. Fee charged large airlines (best discounts) to overhaul: $90,000. Typically two overhauls per part or $116,000 profit off $280,000 in sales.
5. Cost if sold as spare parts:. $200,000.
6. Cost CFM charges for spare parts:. $300,000
The issue with EK is many parts do not need overhaul during their ownership or maybe one engine overhaul.

Also remember economies of scale. With today's automation, setting up for 2x the production run means that parts cost 87% as much (each). Now I intentionally picked an example where the economy of scale clauses in the contracts overshot the production savings. But parts still bought in quantity (quantity defined as 50+ per year) are sold at the peak or near peak discounts. So the JT8D/MD-80 vendors were held to pricing until, IIRC, about 2014 when AA declined to renew the service contracts.

The reality is automation only rewards volume. To achieve volume, airframers must sell at risk and take substantial write downs in bad recessions due to vendor penalties.

By taking risk on the A320NEO, Airbus has had huge success. Same with the 737 MAX. CFM had to lean forward on production costs to keep the exclusive. Without not so firm sales, neither would be where they are now. Same with the A380, 77W, A330, 787, and A350.

Firming penalty clauses cuts both ways. The 787 would have bankrupted Boeing on old school clauses. The delays on the A350 wouldn't have been allowed and the A330NEO would have come early instead of the A350 XWB.

Hopefully I've given an insight. E.g., old school clauses would have had EK order maybe 6 A380. Would they have? They would have been handed over dirt cheap due to all the delay penalties. EK would have ordered in small batches. Small enough in 2009, Airbus would have faced a shut the line down decision.

Lightsaber


Quoting from the other thread.


I think that Airbus is going about too loosely with the term firm order.
Let's remember that they had Skymark liquidated over non-compliance with a firm order, for aircraft that they ended up placing with another airline, EK.

For EY and EK they bend over backwards. I think that cancellation cost and terms of contracts should be reported so that the market knows what kind of conditions the orders are placed under.

I think that reality is setting in with the consequences of this ridiculous move by the amateur management at Airbus.
Airbus now practically has no widebodies to sell except the A330neo, until 2026.
The A330neo's backlog is shaky to say the least. One can assume that EK can walk away as they please again. Air Asia, I'll believe it when I see the dozens of A330neo in their livery.

Next year, they might as well announce the closure of the A330neo line by 2023 so everybody ar Airbus can get a much needed long holiday.

Thomas Enders cleaning up the line-up for his successor seems the only plausible motivation to end production and i a ridiculous justification.
A clear case of executives imagining to be more than the products they sell. The A380 is the product of sweat, tears, pain, overtime, stress, hard work and billions of investor money. A change of executives is being used as reason to shut down one of the most amazing aircraft programs in history.
Why wait? Fire Enders today.

EK wants to cancel?
No more takers?
Ok, suspend the production and follow the evolution of the market and technology. This is what Boeing has done with the B747, succesfully.

In 2025 if new technology makes it possible to make a twin out of the A380 and midsize widebodies can't keep up with demand, you have the option to resume production.

Ending production is a big mistake.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 308
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:38 am

Revelation wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
dont forget the can airbus restart a380 production threads!

Where will they store the tooling? :-)

osiris30 wrote:
For anyone not around at the time, you won't remember that the 380 was basically launched with a lot of hubris and wang-waving. It was never REALLY about the business case in my eyes. It was about proving Airbus could build it and have the 'biggest'. Well, congrats to those that were responsible; you built the biggest passenger AC ever, with quite possibly the largest financial failure of an aircraft (in hard $) as well. 2 for 1!

In summary, if you like a healthy Airbus, there is a LOT of good about this cancellation. I like a healthy Airbus, and a healthy Boeing. That is what will drive forward technology and fuel savings and hopefully a little pax comfort thrown in.

:checkmark:

ikramerica wrote:
I’m from the airnet previous generation, where discussions were more informed. An OG as the kids say. The forums (searchable) go back to 2005, but the discussion didn’t start then. A lot of data and research was presented back then. There was no Twitter for instant comments.

I don’t gamble. I come to conclusions based on knowledge. Even I overestimated the demand, but in 2005 nobody could quite fathom the depths of the global recession that was on the horizon, nor the delays Airbus would face due to CAD problems. An on time A380 during a normal boom bust cycle might have sold 400. Maybe.

But that’s the problem with building the biggest of something. Any economic hiccups, and the biggest/most expensive things are the hardest to continue to justify.

Indeed. I kept pointing out that the first thing sent to the desert during the economic hiccups was the biggest / most expensive plane. Seemed people just didn't want to hear it.

Speaking of OG and data, here's how Airbus was viewing the A380 program circa 2006, including retrospective:

Image

Image

Image

Ref: https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... 0#p8658141

They were still looking forward to delivering 741 A380s by 2021.

Turns out they were off by a factor of three.

They were looking forward to an internal rate of return of 13%.

Looks like they were off by a good 13% or so.

By their own accounting, EUR 12.5B invested, without considering what others spent (engine and other vendors, regional governments, airports, etc).

That's a big swing and a big miss.


Or the projections were correct and the sales department did a poor job.
 
Antarius
Posts: 1420
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:01 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
dont forget the can airbus restart a380 production threads!

Where will they store the tooling? :-)

osiris30 wrote:
For anyone not around at the time, you won't remember that the 380 was basically launched with a lot of hubris and wang-waving. It was never REALLY about the business case in my eyes. It was about proving Airbus could build it and have the 'biggest'. Well, congrats to those that were responsible; you built the biggest passenger AC ever, with quite possibly the largest financial failure of an aircraft (in hard $) as well. 2 for 1!

In summary, if you like a healthy Airbus, there is a LOT of good about this cancellation. I like a healthy Airbus, and a healthy Boeing. That is what will drive forward technology and fuel savings and hopefully a little pax comfort thrown in.

:checkmark:

ikramerica wrote:
I’m from the airnet previous generation, where discussions were more informed. An OG as the kids say. The forums (searchable) go back to 2005, but the discussion didn’t start then. A lot of data and research was presented back then. There was no Twitter for instant comments.

I don’t gamble. I come to conclusions based on knowledge. Even I overestimated the demand, but in 2005 nobody could quite fathom the depths of the global recession that was on the horizon, nor the delays Airbus would face due to CAD problems. An on time A380 during a normal boom bust cycle might have sold 400. Maybe.

But that’s the problem with building the biggest of something. Any economic hiccups, and the biggest/most expensive things are the hardest to continue to justify.

Indeed. I kept pointing out that the first thing sent to the desert during the economic hiccups was the biggest / most expensive plane. Seemed people just didn't want to hear it.

Speaking of OG and data, here's how Airbus was viewing the A380 program circa 2006, including retrospective:

Image

Image

Image

Ref: https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... 0#p8658141

They were still looking forward to delivering 741 A380s by 2021.

Turns out they were off by a factor of three.

They were looking forward to an internal rate of return of 13%.

Looks like they were off by a good 13% or so.

By their own accounting, EUR 12.5B invested, without considering what others spent (engine and other vendors, regional governments, airports, etc).

That's a big swing and a big miss.


Or the projections were correct and the sales department did a poor job.


Fanboys are funny.

Pray tell, who would be the buyers?
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD MEL DEN BLR MAA DEL KTM YYZ MEX
 
Whalejet
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:17 am

Airbus is now pretty much entirely depended on the 320, 330, and 350 (A220 to a lesser extent). This has been the case for a few years, ending the 380 just formalized the status quo.

Boeing has the 737MAX, the 777X, the 787, the 797/MOM project.

I'm heavily interested in seeing what the next thing Airbus comes out with will be. They will probably be taking the next few years slowly to recoup their losses and adjust for Brexit.
 
JoeCanuck
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:29 am

Whalejet wrote:
Airbus is now pretty much entirely depended on the 320, 330, and 350 (A220 to a lesser extent). This has been the case for a few years, ending the 380 just formalized the status quo.

Boeing has the 737MAX, the 777X, the 787, the 797/MOM project.

I'm heavily interested in seeing what the next thing Airbus comes out with will be. They will probably be taking the next few years slowly to recoup their losses and adjust for Brexit.


Boeing is at least a year away from even announcing the 797 and we have no idea what Airbus is cooking up. At the moment, it's pretty much as close to a dead heat as it's possible for any duopoly to get.

Airbus has taken the first step into 'what's next land', by cutting the losses of the 380 and freeing up capital and resources. I would be completely stunned if they didn't have a few all new MOM concepts of their own kicking around backstage...besides any 321 mods they are planning.
What the...?
 
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Erebus
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:54 am

JoeCanuck wrote:
Airbus has taken the first step into 'what's next land', by cutting the losses of the 380 and freeing up capital and resources. I would be completely stunned if they didn't have a few all new MOM concepts of their own kicking around backstage...besides any 321 mods they are planning.


I don't believe Airbus should be pursuing a clean sheet MOM counter. Maybe as derivatives of the A321. But in the longer term, they could focus on the A220s growth potential to replace the A320, and a clean sheet A321 replacement centred around the 200-250 (max) limit. A replacement for the A330neo might be required though, but with similar capabilities to the 787-8/9.
 
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N328KF
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:33 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I think that Airbus is going about too loosely with the term firm order.
Let's remember that they had Skymark liquidated over non-compliance with a firm order, for aircraft that they ended up placing with another airline, EK.

For EY and EK they bend over backwards. I think that cancellation cost and terms of contracts should be reported so that the market knows what kind of conditions the orders are placed under.

I think that reality is setting in with the consequences of this ridiculous move by the amateur management at Airbus.
Airbus now practically has no widebodies to sell except the A330neo, until 2026.
The A330neo's backlog is shaky to say the least. One can assume that EK can walk away as they please again. Air Asia, I'll believe it when I see the dozens of A330neo in their livery.

Next year, they might as well announce the closure of the A330neo line by 2023 so everybody ar Airbus can get a much needed long holiday.

Thomas Enders cleaning up the line-up for his successor seems the only plausible motivation to end production and i a ridiculous justification.
A clear case of executives imagining to be more than the products they sell. The A380 is the product of sweat, tears, pain, overtime, stress, hard work and billions of investor money. A change of executives is being used as reason to shut down one of the most amazing aircraft programs in history.
Why wait? Fire Enders today.

EK wants to cancel?
No more takers?
Ok, suspend the production and follow the evolution of the market and technology. This is what Boeing has done with the B747, succesfully.

In 2025 if new technology makes it possible to make a twin out of the A380 and midsize widebodies can't keep up with demand, you have the option to resume production.

Ending production is a big mistake.


I hate to be harsh, but this and other posts suggest a fragile grasp on supply chain management. A large-scale systems integration program (whatever the category - Air, ships, locomotives, phones) requires a unique skill set, time, and money. You want to produce a new mega turbo flying widget? At least a couple years. Those parts come from suppliers, which have to manage their own supply chains. What if the original suppliers are out of business? Might not be a problem with GE, Honeywell etc. (who are not likely going anywhere), but THEIR suppliers might vanish, or the woman who knows how to best assemble wing subassembly part THX-1138 may have been pensioned off because she was made redundant after the last A380 wing was made in 2020 (or more than 5 years prior.) Or do you intend to pull a Ted Williams, freeze it, and thaw/revive when money is better? Because things will change and cause the corpse to deteriorate on you in the meantime.

The other thing is that the A380 was the unfortunate victim of being designed just before a generation change in aviation technology. Oh, sure, it had GLARE and some composites, but shortly after the A380 was designed, we saw massive upheavals in technology. I won’t say for certain, but I will hazard a guess that had the A380 been a few years later, it would have been far lighter (better SFC is a given), though that does nothing for being able to fill it.
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
-Donny Miller
 
EAARbrat
Posts: 19
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2018 5:39 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:47 am

Reminds me of another pre-EU boondoggle the Concorde.

They are both awesome aircraft but ultimately more vanity and pride then realistic endeavors. Atleast Airbus matched the L1011 volume which is impressive considering the monstrosity the A380is but its mostly a function of oil money.
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:54 am

Erebus wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
Airbus has taken the first step into 'what's next land', by cutting the losses of the 380 and freeing up capital and resources. I would be completely stunned if they didn't have a few all new MOM concepts of their own kicking around backstage...besides any 321 mods they are planning.


I don't believe Airbus should be pursuing a clean sheet MOM counter. Maybe as derivatives of the A321. But in the longer term, they could focus on the A220s growth potential to replace the A320, and a clean sheet A321 replacement centred around the 200-250 (max) limit. A replacement for the A330neo might be required though, but with similar capabilities to the 787-8/9.


The beauty of picking up the CSeries, is that it's a finished project. The tough part is done and a simple stretch, (should they want to do that), is built in. Airbus has plenty of experience with stretches so that wouldn't be much for them to work out.

At the moment, Airbus has no all new projects on the board. It makes a lot of sense to me that they are looking at ALL options for the MOM including all new, 321 upgrades or both.
What the...?
 
UA857
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:59 am

Will Boeing end 747-8 production?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:17 am

UA857 wrote:
Will Boeing end 747-8 production?


As long as the freighters sells - no.
 
ELBOB
Posts: 287
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:13 am

DfwRevolution wrote:
Perhaps the most stark example is LHR-AUS, which debut using a 787-8. This route overflies two alliance hubs - ORD and DFW - with virtually no detour.


And which flies today with a B772. You know, a big dumb 'inefficient' aluminium tube designed in the 1990s before the P2P hype debuted.

For example, airlines could provide service on the following non-stop routes: Atlanta-Athens, Newark-Rio de Janeiro, Vancouver-Munich, Washington, D.C.-Rome, San Francisco-Milan, Helsinki-Shanghai, Paris-Minneapolis, Dubai-Taipei, London-Fukuoka, Munich-Singapore.[/i]
https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2003-06-16 ... Dreamliner


Just from a first glance, CAL was flying Taipei-Dubai in 1983 with the A300! Alitalia has indeed launched Dulles to Rome with... the A332. Surely impossible per Boeing. I'm sure I could work through that list and find many other existing services that were operating long before the 787 was a notion.

Look, it's all PR and spin. The 787 was more efficient than its predecessors but in general hasn't been used any differently.
 
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seahawk
Posts: 8306
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:17 am

ELBOB wrote:

Just from a first glance, CAL was flying Taipei-Dubai in 1983 with the A300! Alitalia has indeed launched Dulles to Rome with... the A332. Surely impossible per Boeing. I'm sure I could work through that list and find many other existing services that were operating long before the 787 was a notion.

Look, it's all PR and spin. The 787 was more efficient than its predecessors but in general hasn't been used any differently.


You forget one big difference, with the revolutionary 787 airlines make money serving those routes, in the past they did not.
 
VV
Posts: 595
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:19 am

UA857 wrote:
Will Boeing end 747-8 production?


The 747-8 Intercontinental production was stopped about two years ago and they already write off the costs related to that version.

There are still some 747-8F to deliver. How long the freighter version's production will continue depends much on future orders. This said, 747-8 freighter has unique features that could potentially keep it on production for a long time, albeit with at a slow rate.
 
jeffrey0032j
Topic Author
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:53 am

Finn350 wrote:
africawings wrote:
If we are being honest; I recall when the A380 program was announced in 2000. It was pitting (then new) Point to Point travel (787) against traditional Hub and Spoke routings, which the A380 represented. Looks like Point to Point travel won handily as Boeing predicted the trend would go 19 years ago.


In 2000 Boeing forecast that there would be 1,010 deliveries of the 747/A3XX aircraft during 2000-2019.

Source, p. 45 http://www.as777.com/data/manufacturer/ ... g_2000.pdf

It seems Boeing grossly overestimated VLA demand for this time period.

And then September 11 occurred, and they quickly changed the product offering by cancelling the Sonic Cruiser and putting the 747 on the backburner. Shortly after, the 77W entered into service and the 787 is launched, by then it was clear that the future was to be twins. All this while Airbus was still building the European dream plane that gone wrong, and they were still marketing their 4 Engines 4 Long Haul 340NG even when the 77W came about.
 
jeffrey0032j
Topic Author
Posts: 583
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:57 am

ELBOB wrote:
DfwRevolution wrote:
Perhaps the most stark example is LHR-AUS, which debut using a 787-8. This route overflies two alliance hubs - ORD and DFW - with virtually no detour.


And which flies today with a B772. You know, a big dumb 'inefficient' aluminium tube designed in the 1990s before the P2P hype debuted.


The 787 has been instrumental in getting the LHR-AUS get to where it is now. It was a route that didn't work in the past due to demand and lack of efficient planes. The 787 enabled BA to enter markets such as AUS, and over time, build up the demand (through publicity and other methods and simply being there and known), upgauged it to the 772. This is in fact a perfect example of how the 787 has helped airlines grow new routes.
 
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Finn350
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:01 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
africawings wrote:
If we are being honest; I recall when the A380 program was announced in 2000. It was pitting (then new) Point to Point travel (787) against traditional Hub and Spoke routings, which the A380 represented. Looks like Point to Point travel won handily as Boeing predicted the trend would go 19 years ago.


In 2000 Boeing forecast that there would be 1,010 deliveries of the 747/A3XX aircraft during 2000-2019.

Source, p. 45 http://www.as777.com/data/manufacturer/ ... g_2000.pdf

It seems Boeing grossly overestimated VLA demand for this time period.

And then September 11 occurred, and they quickly changed the product offering by cancelling the Sonic Cruiser and putting the 747 on the backburner. Shortly after, the 77W entered into service and the 787 is launched, by then it was clear that the future was to be twins. All this while Airbus was still building the European dream plane that gone wrong, and they were still marketing their 4 Engines 4 Long Haul 340NG even when the 77W came about.


Well, they didn't change market outlook too quickly. Here is the 2002 outlook:
http://www.as777.com/data/manufacturer/ ... g_2002.pdf

Page 29, they changed number of VLA deliveries in 20-year period to 944 from 1,010 two years earlier.
 
jeffrey0032j
Topic Author
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:03 am

On a side note, ATC controllers at airports with A380 service would probably be rejoicing with this news, the issue of wake turbulence and separation from the A380s will eventually not be an issue.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:03 am

Antarius wrote:
[The 747-8F was the launch aircraft. One that is still in production, recently got orders and as the replacement cycle hits, could get more. The 8i was second, a sort of "we're already halfway there" throw in to the ring. The 8i was an total flop.


Sorry, you have that wrong. When launched, Boeing expected the freighter to represent just 25% of sales. They saw the passenger version outselling freighters 3 to 1. You could argue they were as wrong as Airbus.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
JustSomeDood
Posts: 377
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:05 am

Finn350 wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
Finn350 wrote:

In 2000 Boeing forecast that there would be 1,010 deliveries of the 747/A3XX aircraft during 2000-2019.

Source, p. 45 http://www.as777.com/data/manufacturer/ ... g_2000.pdf

It seems Boeing grossly overestimated VLA demand for this time period.

And then September 11 occurred, and they quickly changed the product offering by cancelling the Sonic Cruiser and putting the 747 on the backburner. Shortly after, the 77W entered into service and the 787 is launched, by then it was clear that the future was to be twins. All this while Airbus was still building the European dream plane that gone wrong, and they were still marketing their 4 Engines 4 Long Haul 340NG even when the 77W came about.


Well, they didn't change market outlook too quickly. Here is the 2002 outlook:
http://www.as777.com/data/manufacturer/ ... g_2002.pdf

Page 29, they changed number of VLA deliveries in 20-year period to 944 from 1,010 two years earlier.


They changed it quickly enough to scrap the planned 747X at the time and kicked the can down the road, while the same market conditions didn't deter A from pressing on with the A380.
 
jeffrey0032j
Topic Author
Posts: 583
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:11 am

scbriml wrote:
Antarius wrote:
[The 747-8F was the launch aircraft. One that is still in production, recently got orders and as the replacement cycle hits, could get more. The 8i was second, a sort of "we're already halfway there" throw in to the ring. The 8i was an total flop.


Sorry, you have that wrong. When launched, Boeing expected the freighter to represent just 25% of sales. They saw the passenger version outselling freighters 3 to 1. You could argue they were as wrong as Airbus.

Nah, same mistake but a lot smaller in magnitude, they didn't pour in the sort of money that Airbus did. Most of the R&D money was spent on the 787 by then.
 
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cpd
Posts: 5900
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:15 am

EAARbrat wrote:
Reminds me of another pre-EU boondoggle the Concorde.

They are both awesome aircraft but ultimately more vanity and pride then realistic endeavors. Atleast Airbus matched the L1011 volume which is impressive considering the monstrosity the A380is but its mostly a function of oil money.


You will remember that the USA also spent a lot of money on SST type aircraft development and research, and got nothing for it. No actual planes, just some mockups, pretty scale models and renderings. And no experience.

Concorde was realistic at the time of development. The rest of the world seemed to agree and rushed to do their own bigger and better versions. It at least was built with realistic targets in mind. And it delivered an enormous amount of knowledge and experience that was surely invaluable for later Airbus planes.
 
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flee
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:59 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
On a side note, ATC controllers at airports with A380 service would probably be rejoicing with this news, the issue of wake turbulence and separation from the A380s will eventually not be an issue.

A380s should still be flying in 2030.

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