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flee
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:59 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
On a side note, ATC controllers at airports with A380 service would probably be rejoicing with this news, the issue of wake turbulence and separation from the A380s will eventually not be an issue.

A380s should still be flying in 2030.
 
colortv
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:10 am

Now that Airbus has cancelled the A380, I'll share a video I made about my experience on the very first A380 commercial flight...October 25, 2007. Seats on this historic flight were sold on a special eBay auction. Turns out I paid the lowest price for a seat on this flight...$1,025 USD one way to Sydney. The most expensive seats were a pair of First Class Singapore Suites auctioned for $100,380 to a fellow from Sydney.

As I think the video clearly shows, enthusiasm was at a fever pitch on that historic day. All of us on board had no doubt this massive ultra quiet, roomy, and luxurious aircraft would be the gold standard every airline would want to fly. The media was out in full force. A reporter from the Los Angeles Times newspaper asked to swap seats with my for the last half of the flight, so I happily moved upstairs to his massive business class seat. All the fun was in economy class where the press was roaming for interviews. The captain walked the cabin to sign autographs. I asked who was flying the plane and he whipped out his phone and jokingly pretended to control the bird by remote control. Celebrity chefs provided excellent meals in all classes.

If you haven't flown on an A380, listen to the sound of the engines during takeoff from the rear economy cabin aft of the engines. I haven't flown on any airplane as quiet as an A380 including B787 and A350. It's even quieter on the upper deck.

No one would have guessed that this very airplane would be sent to the scrapyard a mere 10 years later. Even more unlikely that the A380 would be the Edsel of the skies, a massive product failure. Nevertheless, the A380 is my absolute favorite aircraft to fly on as I have done many times since this inaugural flight.

I hope you enjoy my 17 minute video. https://youtu.be/kwLKx0BR76o
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:11 am

flee wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
On a side note, ATC controllers at airports with A380 service would probably be rejoicing with this news, the issue of wake turbulence and separation from the A380s will eventually not be an issue.

A380s should still be flying in 2030.

They will still be flying then, but in lesser numbers over time, there will come a point where it is no longer an issue.
 
Bradin
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:36 am

I'm curious how some of the major airports are feeling right about now who made major retrofits to support the A380.

I'm equally as curious how some of the major airports are feeling right now who have not made major retrofits to support the A380.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:46 am

Bradin wrote:
I'm curious how some of the major airports are feeling right about now who made major retrofits to support the A380.

I'm equally as curious how some of the major airports are feeling right now who have not made major retrofits to support the A380.


Who really cares? The A380 has been in service for over ten years and could be in service another 20-25. Those changes will be well used. ** shrug **
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:17 am

ikramerica wrote:
marcelh wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
So the search engine only allows going back 14 years. But here are predictions from when the A380 had begun flight testing.

1. Airbus: market of 1250 aircraft and A380 would sell at least 700
2. Gemuser: 1000-1500 A380 sales
3. NAV20: biggest flop since spruce goose
4. Zvezda and me: Historically, about 2/3 of JumboJets were bought for range and about 1/3 for capacity. It's a safe bet that no one is buying WhaleJets for their range.
5. QFA001: the A380F would fail because even freight carriers who ordered the A380 pax were not biting on the A380F

This was my assessment: (2005)
—“NO OTHER PLANE could do what the 747 does in terms of cargo/distance.

This is no longer the case. With the introduction of planes in the last 15 years all able to do about what the 747/380 can for range, and many cargo options out there, some better than the 747pax/A380pax/cargo, it's not the same world we live in. And with a possible twinjet 773/747 replacement 10-15 years down the line, prospects for 700 380 airframes in a reasonable timeframe are not as "rosy" as you claim.

But we've been through this many times before. Airbus flag waivers say 1000 planes, Airbus haters say 200 if they are lucky, honest observers say they are likely to break even at 350-400 frames over 15-20 years, which for this type of endeavor, is likely a success!“

I was being diplomatic. The numbers I kept running and talking about since 2001 were topping out at 350, but more realistically 275-300, and that included freighters.

You just gambled right

Funny.

I’m from the airnet previous generation, where discussions were more informed. An OG as the kids say. The forums (searchable) go back to 2005, but the discussion didn’t start then. A lot of data and research was presented back then. There was no Twitter for instant comments.

I don’t gamble. I come to conclusions based on knowledge. Even I overestimated the demand, but in 2005 nobody could quite fathom the depths of the global recession that was on the horizon, nor the delays Airbus would face due to CAD problems. An on time A380 during a normal boom bust cycle might have sold 400. Maybe.

But that’s the problem with building the biggest of something. Any economic hiccups, and the biggest/most expensive things are the hardest to continue to justify.


Indeed funny.
I’m also a long time visitor (“lurker”) and have seen the decline in quality posts. I still think you made a nice gamble and underestimate the influence of the CAD issues; the A380F would have existed and the first passenger planes would have flown earlier. Just as the issues with the B787 was a blessing for the sales of the A330 (the next best thing), the issues with the A380 boosted the sales of the B77W. That combined with the biggest economic and financial crisis after WW2, the A380 lost momentum. And it didn’t helped Airbus that the design of the A380-800 wasn’t optimised (too heavy because of the “built-in” strech).
But OTOH: the end of the A380 production is also the start of interesting times: It creates the space needed for Boeing to look at a 777-10 and Airbus for the A350-2000. Just because air travel will increase and it cannot be compensated with more smaller planes. Airspace is limited.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:42 am

One has to wonder how the planned end of the production of the A380 will affect its used market. I suspect that it will be very small and at very cheap prices to offset its other costs.

We know the early builds are pretty much going to the scrap due to their wiring and other issues. There were delays in the first production. Both hurt their and overall used pricing.
There are the short and medium term economic issues. The A380 survived the 2008 crash and aftermath but it was hurt by it as financing dried up at a critical time.
The world is overdue for a major economic recession in the next 1-2 years, possibly hastened by Brexit, from China, and who knows what. If a major recession, it will also mean less full aircraft, especially in the most premium and profitable seats.
For sure oil prices will go up again to $100/bbl+, making 4 engines aircraft undesirable. We could also see carbon taxes by governments for revenues and to limit the affects of climate change/global warming.
There is unlikely to be a freighter conversion vs. the B 747 and 777's
Limited production means limited demand for part outs.
You also have a relatively small base of production and the possibility of Airbus reducing tech and part support over the years. I suspect the last built aircraft will only be in service into the mid-2030's.
Last edited by ltbewr on Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:43 am

What used market?
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:04 pm

par13del wrote:
What I find interesting about the numbers is that in spite of the delays, changes to production infrastructure they still managed to maintain the cash break even number of 250...

250 was was the launch target but as above by 2006 it was 420 and after that they never released another figure as far as I know.

Whalejet wrote:
Airbus is now pretty much entirely depended on the 320, 330, and 350 (A220 to a lesser extent). This has been the case for a few years, ending the 380 just formalized the status quo.

I think it's a strong signal that they are clearing the decks and making room for something new/better to come.

Whalejet wrote:
Boeing has the 737MAX, the 777X, the 787, the 797/MOM project.

I'm heavily interested in seeing what the next thing Airbus comes out with will be. They will probably be taking the next few years slowly to recoup their losses and adjust for Brexit.

The same job adverts that leaked the A350neo leaked an all new CFRP narrowbody from Airbus.

We had a thread a while ago about Airbus doing a strategic review triggered by Enders leaving and Faury taking over.

I think that played a role in finally wrapping up A380.

The existing "digestible losses" plan to wait for the Chinese to start buying in ~2025 was a leftover of the Leahy era and never made sense.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:52 pm

Stitch wrote:
bigjku wrote:
They can’t waive RLI repayment. Those loans are made on commercial terms.


I expect they can if the Lender (the governments of the UK, Germany and France) forgive the loan, which it appears they intend to do.


Finn350 wrote:
The loan repayment is apparently conditional to the A380 launch being successful. Apparently, by loan terms and conditions, the A380 launch has been a partial failure and they don't have to repay part of the loan. Or that is how I read it.


If true, I wonder if Airbus used that card to get relief from any A340-500/A340-600 RLI they had remaining on the books.


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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:05 pm

scbriml wrote:
[When launched, Boeing expected the freighter to represent just 25% of sales. They saw the passenger version outselling freighters 3 to 1. You could argue they were as wrong as Airbus.


However, Boeing quickly halted development of the Intercontinental when the initial responses were only from cargo operators and one or two VIP customers. It was not until LH agreed to order 20 that Boeing formally went forward with the Intercontinental, spending over $300 million to complete the design engineering.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:08 pm

This is not the time for Airbus considers a new model and new versions of the 320/321 (maybe better tanks now). With their enormous back orders, mostly up to date models they need to and will start making money. And making more planes faster. From the 220 to the largest 350 their planes can efficiently fly 95 (98?)% of the worlds routes. And dropping the 380 was probably not so much about saving money as it was stopping it from monopolizing their and RR's time and attention.

Boeing somehow managed to tuck the 748 in a corner - it trucks along but I doubt that anyone except immediate supervisors lose sleep over it. The 380 was a political morass for Airbus, governments, airlines - (and a-net). I haven't but hope to fly on the 380 - an impressive piece of machinery - what is not to love - even after all the aforesaid.
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:24 pm

DarkKnight5 wrote:
deltadc9 wrote:
FlightLevel360 wrote:
This is the stupidest move in all of aviation history. They will regret it.
Shame to the airline CEOs who listen to wall street and didn't buy the A380.

They listen to their fleet planners and accountants.

Listening to, and serving, the Shareholders is the CEO’s primary job. Accountants and fleet planners are hired to help the CEO serve the shareholders and make them money. Running an expensive-to-operate airplane when you could use a less-expensive-to-operate airplane is a dereliction of that duty.

I suspect that responsibility to shareholders is why no US airline operates the type.

Agreed. But, in fact CEO's & board's primary job is making $$$$$$$; regardless of whether there are shareholders or not (private for profit company) the top guys in the company are in the business to make $$$$$$$$ and they will move on and change strategy if it doesn't make $$$$$$ sense to them. In aircraft sales there is a certain geo-political component to it...but even that didn't help the A380.
 
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:39 pm

musman9853 wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Lost in all of this is the fact that she's been in commercial ops for 12 years and it has at least that many more years ahead. A ~25 year lifespan isn't too shabby even if it didn't sell that many.



considering airbus invested like 25B+ in the a380, it's pretty bad. airbus is gonna lose so much money over this.


While there definitely is losses (Airbus has said so themselves), $440 million x 250 = $110 billion. It's not going to be as bad as the armchair a.net haters like to think.
 
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:42 pm

Slug71 wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Lost in all of this is the fact that she's been in commercial ops for 12 years and it has at least that many more years ahead. A ~25 year lifespan isn't too shabby even if it didn't sell that many.



considering airbus invested like 25B+ in the a380, it's pretty bad. airbus is gonna lose so much money over this.


While there definitely is losses (Airbus has said so themselves), $440 million x 250 = $110 billion. It's not going to be as bad as the armchair a.net haters like to think.



well each a380 is probably being sold closer to 200mm than 450mm. so then total program revenue would be closer to 50B. then factor in the production cost of the a380, which is at least 150mm, probably closer the the 200mm given that the last few dozen have been sold at "digestible losses". they're still gonna lose tens of billions at least on the program
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:40 pm

Slug71 wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Lost in all of this is the fact that she's been in commercial ops for 12 years and it has at least that many more years ahead. A ~25 year lifespan isn't too shabby even if it didn't sell that many.



considering airbus invested like 25B+ in the a380, it's pretty bad. airbus is gonna lose so much money over this.


While there definitely is losses (Airbus has said so themselves), $440 million x 250 = $110 billion. It's not going to be as bad as the armchair a.net haters like to think.

Where do you get 440 from? List price at launch was far lower, and contract price far lower still with no cancelation penalties for some early customers. And those prices include engines.

The there is the cost of building one.
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ikramerica
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:04 pm

Boeing delivered 312 new 747 aircraft since 2000 forecast. A few more to come this year.

Airbus will deliver around 240 by year end.

So over 550.

Boeing delivered 800 77W with possible 44 more to go. The 77W was a direct replacement for the 747 in many fleets, and with the switch to 10Y it killed any 748 prospects.

I don’t know how many 744s were converted to freighters but it’s part of the demand for VLAs.

But the 2000-2019 market turned out to be for 1350+ aircraft. Between Airbus and Boeing projections. Just Airbus didn’t earn 1/2 of those.

Is the A350-1000 a VLA? I don’t know...
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douwd20
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:15 pm

scbriml wrote:
Bradin wrote:
I'm curious how some of the major airports are feeling right about now who made major retrofits to support the A380.

I'm equally as curious how some of the major airports are feeling right now who have not made major retrofits to support the A380.


Who really cares? The A380 has been in service for over ten years and could be in service another 20-25. Those changes will be well used. ** shrug **


"Who cares"? Well tens of millions were spent building out an infrastructure that was billed as the future of aviation not a 10-20 year temporary enhancement. Those costs can now be arguably called a waste.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:27 pm

This article:

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... a-new-jet/

This indicates that Airbus won’t have to repay the RLI. I’d like to see a more in depth article on how this would work with WTO rules.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:52 pm

douwd20 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Bradin wrote:
I'm curious how some of the major airports are feeling right about now who made major retrofits to support the A380.

I'm equally as curious how some of the major airports are feeling right now who have not made major retrofits to support the A380.


Who really cares? The A380 has been in service for over ten years and could be in service another 20-25. Those changes will be well used. ** shrug **


"Who cares"? Well tens of millions were spent building out an infrastructure that was billed as the future of aviation not a 10-20 year temporary enhancement. Those costs can now be arguably called a waste.

All infrastructure is depreciated on a timeline. I'll let the tax accountants chime in, but at most 20 year depreciation on the gates and such. Thanks to inflation, there will be no trouble paying for theadded work even if only 787/A350 use it. The taxiway work enabled the 779.

Because the infrastructure is out there, we will one day see larger widebodies.

A larger aircraft must carry the same seat+passenger for less than a smaller widebody. This pays for the lower yield of more seats. There are only so many last minute F or J passengers and Y is notorious for going cheap past a few dozen seats.

IMHObthe A380 wasn't big enough to pay for being a double decker. Cest la vie.

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ikramerica
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:23 pm

douwd20 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Bradin wrote:
I'm curious how some of the major airports are feeling right about now who made major retrofits to support the A380.

I'm equally as curious how some of the major airports are feeling right now who have not made major retrofits to support the A380.


Who really cares? The A380 has been in service for over ten years and could be in service another 20-25. Those changes will be well used. ** shrug **


"Who cares"? Well tens of millions were spent building out an infrastructure that was billed as the future of aviation not a 10-20 year temporary enhancement. Those costs can now be arguably called a waste.

The real pointless costs were airports that over strengthened the airfield for A380 ops (like LAX strengthening the south runway complex when the north complex could already handle A380s) and airports that invested in expensive and complicated 3 jetway gates when the A380 can easily be boarded with two jetways if one is modified to reach the upper deck.

LAX sees many A380s by US standards, but all could be accommodated on the north runways. The A380F was the main bottleneck as it needed south complex access, but it was canceled. So a HUGE waste of money and inconvenience in extended time to modify the south complex.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:23 pm

scbriml wrote:
Antarius wrote:
[The 747-8F was the launch aircraft. One that is still in production, recently got orders and as the replacement cycle hits, could get more. The 8i was second, a sort of "we're already halfway there" throw in to the ring. The 8i was an total flop.


Sorry, you have that wrong. When launched, Boeing expected the freighter to represent just 25% of sales. They saw the passenger version outselling freighters 3 to 1. You could argue they were as wrong as Airbus.


Scbriml, you can try to sell that nonsensical "Boeing were as wrong as Airbus", but, really, no one (but you) are buying your brand. Airbus completely jacked up the market forecast, and based on their internal calculations and forecasts, basically tripled-down on the A380, and planned accordingly. Boeing was far more modest, and planned accordingly (Hence doubling down on 777, going ahead with 787, and giving a mild update to the 747, as they didn't see the need to build anything bigger as the market couldn't sustain it). In fact, one could say Airbus quintupled-down, because Boeing's forecast, IN 2000, said the following:

"The market for very large airplanes is small. Summing the projected requirements for 747-and-larger airplanes in all major travel markets reveals a total need for 1,010 airplanes over the next 20 years. Within this size category, about two-fifths of the requirement — or approximately 410 passenger jets — is for airplanes of the size of the 747-400. About one-quarter of the requirement is for freighters.

The market for airplanes larger than today’s 747-400 becomes significant only during the second decade of this forecast. By the end of the forecast period, most intercontinental routes will have at least daily service, and traffic volumes will support an airplane larger than the current 747. If airport capacity constraints are more severe, airlines may employ more of these airplanes. The projected requirement for airplanes of 500 seats or greater, however, is estimated at only 330 passenger jets over the study period.

How many A380s and 747-8i are in service, again?

Airbus predicted over 1700 aircraft of VLA size, including A380 and 747.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:47 pm

Bradin wrote:
I'm curious how some of the major airports are feeling right about now who made major retrofits to support the A380.

I'm equally as curious how some of the major airports are feeling right now who have not made major retrofits to support the A380.


Those are infrastructure improvements regardless.

The A380 won’t disappear overnight, so those improvements will still be necessary.

The only thing that might change is if Airbus stops supporting the plane by the end of the year. Then they will all be withdrawn from service. Will they do that? Should they do it?
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:52 pm

ikramerica wrote:
douwd20 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Who really cares? The A380 has been in service for over ten years and could be in service another 20-25. Those changes will be well used. ** shrug **


"Who cares"? Well tens of millions were spent building out an infrastructure that was billed as the future of aviation not a 10-20 year temporary enhancement. Those costs can now be arguably called a waste.

The real pointless costs were airports that over strengthened the airfield for A380 ops (like LAX strengthening the south runway complex when the north complex could already handle A380s) and airports that invested in expensive and complicated 3 jetway gates when the A380 can easily be boarded with two jetways if one is modified to reach the upper deck.

LAX sees many A380s by US standards, but all could be accommodated on the north runways. The A380F was the main bottleneck as it needed south complex access, but it was canceled. So a HUGE waste of money and inconvenience in extended time to modify the south complex.


I don't think that investment was a waste for 2 reasons.

1. A-380 is going to continue to be delivered through 2021, and will probably fly for at least another 12 years after that. It will be 2033 before we start seeing A-380 last flight threads here on a.net.

2. The infrastructure upgrades to allow Code F aircraft will ultimately make acceptance of a new VLA more palatable for airlines as they will not have to wait for airport upgrades. If future super large twins need a wing up to 80m, there are a lot of airports now that can handle that type of aircraft.
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Bradin
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:18 pm

cpd wrote:
Bradin wrote:
I'm curious how some of the major airports are feeling right about now who made major retrofits to support the A380.

I'm equally as curious how some of the major airports are feeling right now who have not made major retrofits to support the A380.


Those are infrastructure improvements regardless.

The A380 won’t disappear overnight, so those improvements will still be necessary.

The only thing that might change is if Airbus stops supporting the plane by the end of the year. Then they will all be withdrawn from service. Will they do that? Should they do it?


osupoke07 wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
douwd20 wrote:

"Who cares"? Well tens of millions were spent building out an infrastructure that was billed as the future of aviation not a 10-20 year temporary enhancement. Those costs can now be arguably called a waste.

The real pointless costs were airports that over strengthened the airfield for A380 ops (like LAX strengthening the south runway complex when the north complex could already handle A380s) and airports that invested in expensive and complicated 3 jetway gates when the A380 can easily be boarded with two jetways if one is modified to reach the upper deck.

LAX sees many A380s by US standards, but all could be accommodated on the north runways. The A380F was the main bottleneck as it needed south complex access, but it was canceled. So a HUGE waste of money and inconvenience in extended time to modify the south complex.


I don't think that investment was a waste for 2 reasons.

1. A-380 is going to continue to be delivered through 2021, and will probably fly for at least another 12 years after that. It will be 2033 before we start seeing A-380 last flight threads here on a.net.

2. The infrastructure upgrades to allow Code F aircraft will ultimately make acceptance of a new VLA more palatable for airlines as they will not have to wait for airport upgrades. If future super large twins need a wing up to 80m, there are a lot of airports now that can handle that type of aircraft.


I purposely split the question into two parts because all airports will fall into one of the following categories:

1) Airports with Infrastructure and A380 service
2) Airports with Infrastructure and hope for A380 service
3) Airports with infrastructure underway and have A380 service
4) Airports with infrastructure underway and hope for A380 service
5) Airports with no infrastructure and hope for A380 service
6) Airports with no infrastructure and does not want A380 service

I was curious more so about the first four.

Airports with Infrastructure and A380 service will likely not feel the impact of this because as Ikraamerica and lightsaber pointed out correctly and rightful - those are long term investments and they will be written off and at least used to some extent - enabling a return on investment to some extent.

The rest - some might have felt they dodge a bullet? Others might be pissed at Airbus?

There is a part of me that wonders if some will want Airbus to help pay for some of the costs in retrofitting their airports because they will never see an A380 ever.
Last edited by Bradin on Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:19 pm

ikramerica wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
musman9853 wrote:


considering airbus invested like 25B+ in the a380, it's pretty bad. airbus is gonna lose so much money over this.


While there definitely is losses (Airbus has said so themselves), $440 million x 250 = $110 billion. It's not going to be as bad as the armchair a.net haters like to think.

Where do you get 440 from? List price at launch was far lower, and contract price far lower still with no cancelation penalties for some early customers. And those prices include engines.

The there is the cost of building one.


Current list price is $445.6m. Even if list was lower at launch, airlines probably paid a fair amount lower than list. Even if they paid around $200m (which I think is realistic), that's still $55 Billion. Like I said, they took losses. Airbus said they were taking a "material loss". No one is disputing that.
 
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kjeld0d
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:33 pm

Revelation wrote:
That's a big swing and a big miss.


Build it and they will come?

Image
 
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enzo011
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:52 pm

Prost wrote:
This article:

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... a-new-jet/

This indicates that Airbus won’t have to repay the RLI. I’d like to see a more in depth article on how this would work with WTO rules.


The US can dispute this at the WTO, it will go up to the judges to decide on the legality of letting the RLI loans go unpaid. Then again the US also keeps blocking judges appointments to the WTO so there will not be judges to decide who was wrong so who really care about what the WTO thinks about RLI if they cannot judge whether it is legal or not.


neutronstar73 wrote:
Scbriml, you can try to sell that nonsensical "Boeing were as wrong as Airbus", but, really, no one (but you) are buying your brand. Airbus completely jacked up the market forecast, and based on their internal calculations and forecasts, basically tripled-down on the A380, and planned accordingly. Boeing was far more modest, and planned accordingly (Hence doubling down on 777, going ahead with 787, and giving a mild update to the 747, as they didn't see the need to build anything bigger as the market couldn't sustain it). In fact, one could say Airbus quintupled-down, because Boeing's forecast, IN 2000, said the following:

"The market for very large airplanes is small. Summing the projected requirements for 747-and-larger airplanes in all major travel markets reveals a total need for 1,010 airplanes over the next 20 years. Within this size category, about two-fifths of the requirement — or approximately 410 passenger jets — is for airplanes of the size of the 747-400. About one-quarter of the requirement is for freighters.

The market for airplanes larger than today’s 747-400 becomes significant only during the second decade of this forecast. By the end of the forecast period, most intercontinental routes will have at least daily service, and traffic volumes will support an airplane larger than the current 747. If airport capacity constraints are more severe, airlines may employ more of these airplanes. The projected requirement for airplanes of 500 seats or greater, however, is estimated at only 330 passenger jets over the study period.

How many A380s and 747-8i are in service, again?

Airbus predicted over 1700 aircraft of VLA size, including A380 and 747.


Airbus screwed the pooch on the numbers predicted for the A380. They will lose their shirts on shutting down the line. Boeing was correct when they looked at their forecasts, and yet they still decided to go ahead and launch the 748. No amount of historical rewrites will be able to talk this down. Not trying to sell it as being a cargo frame with a few passenger frames as a bonus or that they hardly invested any money into the program. Both companies made mistakes in the VLA space in the last 2 decades, it really isn't a pissing contest either fanboys is going to win outright.
 
Prost
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:57 pm

That Seattle Times article was updated:

Going further, the European Union is expected to file a formal motion declaring that the A380 cancellation satisfies its duty to comply with the WTO panel’s ruling.

That’s because when Airbus’ A340 loans were forgiven after that program was canceled, the WTO panel ruled that the A340 subsidies were ended and no longer relevant to the case.


So according to the WTO there is no longer a case.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:05 pm

enzo011 wrote:
Both companies made mistakes in the VLA space in the last 2 decades, it really isn't a pissing contest either fanboys is going to win outright.


The contest was not pissing. It was poker, and Boeing had to put in some stake if it was going to bluff. Even at it's height, Boeing did not spend much Engineering to develop the 8i. Heck, during the big 787 fiasco, they pulled many Engineers from the 747-8 program to help bring the 787 back on schedule. The silver lining was that there was a pool of Engineers on the 747-8 to pull from. If that program was not there, the 787 would have been in deeper doo doo. That shift in manpower also hurt the 747-8 development schedule. It was an easy decision.

bt
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mfranjic
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:18 pm

…..
…infinitely and undescribable disappointed with the development of the events and the hint of the ceasing of production of this unique aircraft...

I thought this flight in December of 2016 would change something… but it did not :-)

The image below is a link to a full flight report...

…..Image

… Although inclined to the this factory, from the very beginning I had the feeling that Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engines would somehow seize the fate of this aircraft sooner than expected. Too many empty promises without the cover. How naive, frivolous and stupid. Sometimes I think that company is run by 'the street', and not by the engineers...

Emirates' RR-engined Image A380 Issues:

26. Nov 2016 http://a380.boards.net/thread/1576/emir ... llTo=83677 Part1 Part 2
27. Nov 2016 http://a380.boards.net/thread/1576/emir ... llTo=83717 Part 3
14. Dec 2016 http://a380.boards.net/thread/1576/emir ... llTo=85076 Part 4

Kind regards

Mario

P.S. If I can be so free to ask for Your opinion; If RR Trent 900 engines were on the level on which it was promised to Emirates they will be, would we, instead of remaining 14 aircraft, see all 53 of them delivered? Would that period, required to deliver 53 Airbus A380 aircraft to Emirates, be long enough for A380 to meet a new generation of engines, like often mentioned RR Ultrafan?
"Only a life lived for others is a life worthwhile" - Albert Einstein
 
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enzo011
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:26 pm

bikerthai wrote:
The contest was not pissing. It was poker, and Boeing had to put in some stake if it was going to bluff. Even at it's height, Boeing did not spend much Engineering to develop the 8i. Heck, during the big 787 fiasco, they pulled many Engineers from the 747-8 program to help bring the 787 back on schedule. The silver lining was that there was a pool of Engineers on the 747-8 to pull from. If that program was not there, the 787 would have been in deeper doo doo. That shift in manpower also hurt the 747-8 development schedule. It was an easy decision.

bt



They may not have had to spend as much engineering costs as Airbus but they still spent money on the program. In 2008 there is articles on how the development costs on the program was frustrating Boeing as it was higher than they anticipated. They also took an almost $1bn charge against the program in 2016. I can find other stories I am sure but it is not a contest that anyone will feel great to win, in my opinion.
 
pygmalion
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:29 pm

osupoke07 wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
douwd20 wrote:


I don't think that investment was a waste for 2 reasons.

1. A-380 is going to continue to be delivered through 2021, and will probably fly for at least another 12 years after that. It will be 2033 before we start seeing A-380 last flight threads here on a.net.

2. The infrastructure upgrades to allow Code F aircraft will ultimately make acceptance of a new VLA more palatable for airlines as they will not have to wait for airport upgrades. If future super large twins need a wing up to 80m, there are a lot of airports now that can handle that type of aircraft.


The 777-9 still fits in a code E 65m slot.. no reason to think that a 777-10 would not also fit in a Code E gate. Boeing did the folding wing just so that they could stay in a code E gate.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:58 pm

Bradin wrote:
cpd wrote:
Bradin wrote:
I'm curious how some of the major airports are feeling right about now who made major retrofits to support the A380.

I'm equally as curious how some of the major airports are feeling right now who have not made major retrofits to support the A380.


Those are infrastructure improvements regardless.

The A380 won’t disappear overnight, so those improvements will still be necessary.

The only thing that might change is if Airbus stops supporting the plane by the end of the year. Then they will all be withdrawn from service. Will they do that? Should they do it?


osupoke07 wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
The real pointless costs were airports that over strengthened the airfield for A380 ops (like LAX strengthening the south runway complex when the north complex could already handle A380s) and airports that invested in expensive and complicated 3 jetway gates when the A380 can easily be boarded with two jetways if one is modified to reach the upper deck.

LAX sees many A380s by US standards, but all could be accommodated on the north runways. The A380F was the main bottleneck as it needed south complex access, but it was canceled. So a HUGE waste of money and inconvenience in extended time to modify the south complex.


I don't think that investment was a waste for 2 reasons.

1. A-380 is going to continue to be delivered through 2021, and will probably fly for at least another 12 years after that. It will be 2033 before we start seeing A-380 last flight threads here on a.net.

2. The infrastructure upgrades to allow Code F aircraft will ultimately make acceptance of a new VLA more palatable for airlines as they will not have to wait for airport upgrades. If future super large twins need a wing up to 80m, there are a lot of airports now that can handle that type of aircraft.


I purposely split the question into two parts because all airports will fall into one of the following categories:

1) Airports with Infrastructure and A380 service
2) Airports with Infrastructure and hope for A380 service
3) Airports with infrastructure underway and have A380 service
4) Airports with infrastructure underway and hope for A380 service
5) Airports with no infrastructure and hope for A380 service
6) Airports with no infrastructure and does not want A380 service

I was curious more so about the first four.

Airports with Infrastructure and A380 service will likely not feel the impact of this because as Ikraamerica and lightsaber pointed out correctly and rightful - those are long term investments and they will be written off and at least used to some extent - enabling a return on investment to some extent.

The rest - some might have felt they dodge a bullet? Others might be pissed at Airbus?

There is a part of me that wonders if some will want Airbus to help pay for some of the costs in retrofitting their airports because they will never see an A380 ever.


There is a reason for code For. Airports are building to an international standard. The fact Airbus makes an aircraft in that size category does not make them liable.

As noted, these are long term investments. If you do not make some mistakes, you are failing by not being ready for opportunities.

Lightsaber
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PW100
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:09 pm

Ziyulu wrote:
Were any US carriers initially interested in the A380?

Two of them actually went on to order A380's. I would say that qualifies as "interested" . . . :-)
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
Bradin
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:10 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Bradin wrote:
cpd wrote:

Those are infrastructure improvements regardless.

The A380 won’t disappear overnight, so those improvements will still be necessary.

The only thing that might change is if Airbus stops supporting the plane by the end of the year. Then they will all be withdrawn from service. Will they do that? Should they do it?


osupoke07 wrote:

I don't think that investment was a waste for 2 reasons.

1. A-380 is going to continue to be delivered through 2021, and will probably fly for at least another 12 years after that. It will be 2033 before we start seeing A-380 last flight threads here on a.net.

2. The infrastructure upgrades to allow Code F aircraft will ultimately make acceptance of a new VLA more palatable for airlines as they will not have to wait for airport upgrades. If future super large twins need a wing up to 80m, there are a lot of airports now that can handle that type of aircraft.


I purposely split the question into two parts because all airports will fall into one of the following categories:

1) Airports with Infrastructure and A380 service
2) Airports with Infrastructure and hope for A380 service
3) Airports with infrastructure underway and have A380 service
4) Airports with infrastructure underway and hope for A380 service
5) Airports with no infrastructure and hope for A380 service
6) Airports with no infrastructure and does not want A380 service

I was curious more so about the first four.

Airports with Infrastructure and A380 service will likely not feel the impact of this because as Ikraamerica and lightsaber pointed out correctly and rightful - those are long term investments and they will be written off and at least used to some extent - enabling a return on investment to some extent.

The rest - some might have felt they dodge a bullet? Others might be pissed at Airbus?

There is a part of me that wonders if some will want Airbus to help pay for some of the costs in retrofitting their airports because they will never see an A380 ever.


There is a reason for code For. Airports are building to an international standard. The fact Airbus makes an aircraft in that size category does not make them liable.

As noted, these are long term investments. If you do not make some mistakes, you are failing by not being ready for opportunities.

Lightsaber


I must have had the mistaken impression that the A380 actually defined the international standard....
 
exmike
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:21 pm

scbriml wrote:
Bradin wrote:
I'm curious how some of the major airports are feeling right about now who made major retrofits to support the A380.

I'm equally as curious how some of the major airports are feeling right now who have not made major retrofits to support the A380.


Who really cares? The A380 has been in service for over ten years and could be in service another 20-25. Those changes will be well used. ** shrug **



I'm not sure smaller airports that see only intermittent A380 (or perhaps anticipatory) service would shrug at the 10's of millions they spent.
 
osiris30
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:43 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
Whalejet wrote:
Airbus is now pretty much entirely depended on the 320, 330, and 350 (A220 to a lesser extent). This has been the case for a few years, ending the 380 just formalized the status quo.

Boeing has the 737MAX, the 777X, the 787, the 797/MOM project.

I'm heavily interested in seeing what the next thing Airbus comes out with will be. They will probably be taking the next few years slowly to recoup their losses and adjust for Brexit.


Boeing is at least a year away from even announcing the 797 and we have no idea what Airbus is cooking up. At the moment, it's pretty much as close to a dead heat as it's possible for any duopoly to get.

Airbus has taken the first step into 'what's next land', by cutting the losses of the 380 and freeing up capital and resources. I would be completely stunned if they didn't have a few all new MOM concepts of their own kicking around backstage...besides any 321 mods they are planning.


Based on this move (and other statements by Airbus), I think what Airbus is 'cooking up' at the point is trying to run a profitable efficient business, which they should have done all along. They are also likely cooking up a BREXIT exit strategy for everything they can. I don't expect Airbus to formally cook anything until Boeing makes their next move.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:22 am

747megatop wrote:
BTW, this makes an interesting read. It kind of lays out and definitely puts the whole A380 debacle in perspective -

https://www.sauder.ubc.ca/Faculty/Resea ... irbus.ashx

What stuck out to me (which I had not realized before) was the stupendous amount of money spent around the world to upgrade airports to accommodate the beast. I knew it was a lot but the figures shown here are staggering.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
OldAeroGuy
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:41 am

kjeld0d wrote:
Revelation wrote:
That's a big swing and a big miss.


Build it and they will come?

Image


Remember how ATL management was belittled on this forum in the past due to their reluctance to make the airport fully A380 compatible?

They had the nerve to suggest that not many of their airline customers were flying the A380 so the incurred costs were not money well spent.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
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scbriml
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:48 am

douwd20 wrote:
"Who cares"? Well tens of millions were spent building out an infrastructure that was billed as the future of aviation not a 10-20 year temporary enhancement. Those costs can now be arguably called a waste.


Not at all. Those facilities have already been in use for ten years and might be for another 20. The money has been spent, used and written off.

ikramerica wrote:
So a HUGE waste of money and inconvenience in extended time to modify the south complex.


Sounds like a bad decision by LAX. But I doubt anyone's losing sleep over it.

neutronstar73 wrote:
Scbriml, you can try to sell that nonsensical "Boeing were as wrong as Airbus", but, really, no one (but you) are buying your brand.


Despite their 'superior' market projections, Boeing still went ahead and built another passenger VLA. Go figure! :wink2:

Guess what, if they hadn't, 747 sales would be around 30-odd less than today because all those freight 747-8s would have been 747-400Fs instead.

exmike wrote:
I'm not sure smaller airports that see only intermittent A380 (or perhaps anticipatory) service would shrug at the 10's of millions they spent.


See above. It's spent, has been used and will continue to be used. Nobody cares.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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SEPilot
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:27 am

PW100 wrote:
Ziyulu wrote:
Were any US carriers initially interested in the A380?

Two of them actually went on to order A380's. I would say that qualifies as "interested" . . . :-)

They were package carriers, not airlines, and they canceled.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:29 am

lightsaber wrote:
Bradin wrote:
cpd wrote:

Those are infrastructure improvements regardless.

The A380 won’t disappear overnight, so those improvements will still be necessary.

The only thing that might change is if Airbus stops supporting the plane by the end of the year. Then they will all be withdrawn from service. Will they do that? Should they do it?


osupoke07 wrote:

I don't think that investment was a waste for 2 reasons.

1. A-380 is going to continue to be delivered through 2021, and will probably fly for at least another 12 years after that. It will be 2033 before we start seeing A-380 last flight threads here on a.net.

2. The infrastructure upgrades to allow Code F aircraft will ultimately make acceptance of a new VLA more palatable for airlines as they will not have to wait for airport upgrades. If future super large twins need a wing up to 80m, there are a lot of airports now that can handle that type of aircraft.


I purposely split the question into two parts because all airports will fall into one of the following categories:

1) Airports with Infrastructure and A380 service
2) Airports with Infrastructure and hope for A380 service
3) Airports with infrastructure underway and have A380 service
4) Airports with infrastructure underway and hope for A380 service
5) Airports with no infrastructure and hope for A380 service
6) Airports with no infrastructure and does not want A380 service

I was curious more so about the first four.

Airports with Infrastructure and A380 service will likely not feel the impact of this because as Ikraamerica and lightsaber pointed out correctly and rightful - those are long term investments and they will be written off and at least used to some extent - enabling a return on investment to some extent.

The rest - some might have felt they dodge a bullet? Others might be pissed at Airbus?

There is a part of me that wonders if some will want Airbus to help pay for some of the costs in retrofitting their airports because they will never see an A380 ever.


There is a reason for code For. Airports are building to an international standard. The fact Airbus makes an aircraft in that size category does not make them liable.

As noted, these are long term investments. If you do not make some mistakes, you are failing by not being ready for opportunities.

Lightsaber

Counterpoint: if you’re not making mistakes you’re running your business well. Hard to go out of business not making mistakes. It’s a lot easier to go out if business when you’re making mistakes and chasing opportunities that do t pay off.
 
Carpethead
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 16, 2019 2:28 am

SEPilot wrote:
What stuck out to me (which I had not realized before) was the stupendous amount of money spent around the world to upgrade airports to accommodate the beast. I knew it was a lot but the figures shown here are staggering.

Just the same as back in late 1960s and 1970s to gear up for the 747. What's your point?
Most of it is money well spent whether the A380s is a regular or occasional visitor at that particular airport.
 
Ziyulu
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 16, 2019 2:34 am

I wonder if any airports were upgraded for the A380 but ended up not having A380 service?
 
douwd20
Posts: 155
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:09 am

scbriml wrote:
Not at all. Those facilities have already been in use for ten years and might be for another 20. The money has been spent, used and written off.



You base your budget on a cost/benefit analysis business case. If the market for VLA was over 1200 as Airbus said then the decision to spend the money is a no brainer. If the actual number is 300 then you might say the money is a waste and better spent elsewhere. Is there any doubt had AIrbus known the market for the A380 was under 400 they would have blown $25 billion on it? Answer: NO.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 14900
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:26 am

Trying to make Airbus pay for upgrades to airports would be like trying to make paint manufacturers pay for lead paint remediation. Some costs you just have to eat.
scbriml wrote:
douwd20 wrote:
"Who cares"? Well tens of millions were spent building out an infrastructure that was billed as the future of aviation not a 10-20 year temporary enhancement. Those costs can now be arguably called a waste.


Not at all. Those facilities have already been in use for ten years and might be for another 20. The money has been spent, used and written off.

ikramerica wrote:
So a HUGE waste of money and inconvenience in extended time to modify the south complex.


Sounds like a bad decision by LAX. But I doubt anyone's losing sleep over it.

neutronstar73 wrote:
Scbriml, you can try to sell that nonsensical "Boeing were as wrong as Airbus", but, really, no one (but you) are buying your brand.


Despite their 'superior' market projections, Boeing still went ahead and built another passenger VLA. Go figure! :wink2:

Guess what, if they hadn't, 747 sales would be around 30-odd less than today because all those freight 747-8s would have been 747-400Fs instead.

exmike wrote:
I'm not sure smaller airports that see only intermittent A380 (or perhaps anticipatory) service would shrug at the 10's of millions they spent.


See above. It's spent, has been used and will continue to be used. Nobody cares.

Actually the decision to do it wasn’t bad. It’s just Airbus made it ultimately not worth it because they canceled the F and they oversold the A380 to airports.

As for losing sleep, the multi year cluster F that was LAX during the reinforcing of the south complex and relocating if the runway to fit Code F operations caused lots of delays and literal lost sleep. Yes, having the better separation makes LAX more compliant, but nobody was going to close LAX down had the changes not been made.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 14900
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:33 am

Ziyulu wrote:
I wonder if any airports were upgraded for the A380 but ended up not having A380 service?

I found a list that says CVG is A380 capable but I don’t know if they actually had to make any upgrades.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:57 am

My comment is; you can't change the past. It does look like both players have learned from it, though. Airbus gambled on the 380 and they lost. It happens. The deal is done, the money spent and the 380 saga is coming to an end...and now we can move forward.

On the other hand...I wonder how many fish you can fit into a good, used 380.......
What the...?
 
DarkKnight5
Posts: 192
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:00 am

scbriml wrote:
douwd20 wrote:
"Who cares"? Well tens of millions were spent building out an infrastructure that was billed as the future of aviation not a 10-20 year temporary enhancement. Those costs can now be arguably called a waste.


Not at all. Those facilities have already been in use for ten years and might be for another 20. The money has been spent, used and written off.

ikramerica wrote:
So a HUGE waste of money and inconvenience in extended time to modify the south complex.


Sounds like a bad decision by LAX. But I doubt anyone's losing sleep over it.

neutronstar73 wrote:
Scbriml, you can try to sell that nonsensical "Boeing were as wrong as Airbus", but, really, no one (but you) are buying your brand.


Despite their 'superior' market projections, Boeing still went ahead and built another passenger VLA. Go figure! :wink2:

Guess what, if they hadn't, 747 sales would be around 30-odd less than today because all those freight 747-8s would have been 747-400Fs instead.

exmike wrote:
I'm not sure smaller airports that see only intermittent A380 (or perhaps anticipatory) service would shrug at the 10's of millions they spent.


See above. It's spent, has been used and will continue to be used. Nobody cares.

“In use for ten plus years” does not mean net profit. Similarly writing down costs / amortizing /depreciating does not mean no one cares anymore. A loss is a loss is a loss. All relative of course, but to say “who cares if they spent a billion dollars i’m looking at a thirty year period” is just stupid. An honest calculation must include the cost of doing something with the benefit of doing something vs the cost of doing nothing with the POTENTIAL loss of Opportunity of not doing anything. Since no airline seems interested in using the A380 vs other widebosies, it seems the whole world has decided that money spent to accommodate the plane is poorly allocated.

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