VV
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:52 pm

par13del wrote:
VV wrote:
During years the others only said, "I warn you it will be a failure." And they got bashed. Only today they can say "I told you so."

I think we all know the genuine detractors of the A380 who always tried to give reasons for their opinion versus those who like you say, just wanted it to fail, unfortunately, we do a disservice to the forum when we lump them all together.


No, they didn't want it to fail. They only said there was no market for that aircraft.
 
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glideslope
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:54 pm

seahawk wrote:
The strengthened taxiways and runway will come handy in the future, because wheel loading is going up in all sizes of planes.


Agree completely. There is no downside to strengthened runways and taxiways as you pointed out with the increasing MTOW increases. Most costs of accommodating the A380 have been written off by now, IMO. Those facilities may have an advantage 20-30 years from now. Personally, I believe the VLA will come back in the distant future. In some ways I feel the 380 was too ahead of it's time. Only time will tell.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:54 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
VV wrote:
Some bloggers have always had a consistent opinion on the market for big quads. The have all been bashed by all sorts of people.
They could potentially say, "I told you so.", But they don't say it.


It's easy to defend an obvious point.
It takes vision to explore new horizons.
The A380 was the fruit of vision and a small carrier from the sandpit used it as a tool to make itself the third largest airline in the world in the span of 8 years, while wiping away billions of potential profits from its competitors and forcing some of them like QF to capitulate and join forces.

I predict that within 10 years technology will come out that can make the A380 a twin with a small loss of range and better economics than any other aircraft.
It's not rocket science, the current A330neo has the same range as the original A343, so it is possible.

But by then Enders will be at the beach and playing with his grandchildren while the executives at Airbus bite their nails off at the lost opportunities from Enders ending the A380 program prematurely instead of putting it in the freezer.
Enders is making a huge mistake and I'm telling you so.

The A380 was too heavy with too big a wing to compete with the latest twins, even if it were converted to a twin. If demand for a double decker arises in the future it will be a clean sheet design. A warmed-over A380 won’t cut it.
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Revelation
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Re: A380

Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:05 pm

Nickd19 wrote:
With Airbus announcing the stop in production of A380 what are emirates going to do about fairly short routes to slot restricted airports. E.G LHR They already send up to 7 A380 surely long term this is just going to increase passengers cost. This shows 3 x A380 alone. https://youtu.be/vrlLJEbl-88

They will keep getting A380s till 2021 and they tend to keep them for 12 years or so.

They have a long time to work out what their best options will be.

Personally I think the end for A380 at EK will come before 2033 because presumably RR will have to keep paying EK for the T900 durability issues and EK will still end up with poor time on wing.

If I had to guess, it'd be 2026-8 or so but there could be some triggering event that brought it in sooner than that, like getting a really spectacular deal on trade ins.
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747megatop
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:11 pm

SEPilot wrote:
747megatop wrote:
BTW, this makes an interesting read. It kind of lays out and definitely puts the whole A380 debacle in perspective -

https://www.sauder.ubc.ca/Faculty/Resea ... irbus.ashx

What stuck out to me (which I had not realized before) was the stupendous amount of money spent around the world to upgrade airports to accommodate the beast. I knew it was a lot but the figures shown here are staggering.

Absolutely. This alone makes the A 380 an embarrassment of monumental proportions in the recent history of commercial jet era (granted though that it was a technological marvel).
 
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Finn350
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Re: A380

Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:24 pm

Revelation wrote:
Nickd19 wrote:
With Airbus announcing the stop in production of A380 what are emirates going to do about fairly short routes to slot restricted airports. E.G LHR They already send up to 7 A380 surely long term this is just going to increase passengers cost. This shows 3 x A380 alone. https://youtu.be/vrlLJEbl-88

They will keep getting A380s till 2021 and they tend to keep them for 12 years or so.

They have a long time to work out what their best options will be.

Personally I think the end for A380 at EK will come before 2033 because presumably RR will have to keep paying EK for the T900 durability issues and EK will still end up with poor time on wing.

If I had to guess, it'd be 2026-8 or so but there could be some triggering event that brought it in sooner than that, like getting a really spectacular deal on trade ins.


A380 will fly into 2030s easily with the EK. Their own airport is slot restricted, and even if DWC is completed, many of their destinations are slot restricted. Furthermore, as A380 has no resale value, it would very expensive to replace them with new twin-aisles. I would assume EK will fly their A380s 15-20 years old.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:34 pm

In hindsight, Airbus's initial market forecast for the A380 was overestimated by a long way but I think they could have gotten away with a worst case number of just 300-350 had it not been for the other unknowns such as the production snags, GFC/oil spike, in-service issues like the wing cracks to name a few.
 
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par13del
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Re: A380

Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
Personally I think the end for A380 at EK will come before 2033 because presumably RR will have to keep paying EK for the T900 durability issues and EK will still end up with poor time on wing.

Ah, but if EK chooses and EA continues support, they have about 90 EA powered frames which they may be able to run longer if they forgo the 12 year lease arrangement.
 
VV
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:07 pm

Erebus wrote:
In hindsight, Airbus's initial market forecast for the A380 was overestimated by a long way but I think they could have gotten away with a worst case number of just 300-350 had it not been for the other unknowns such as the production snags, GFC/oil spike, in-service issues like the wing cracks to name a few.


I am not so sure about that.
 
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Re: A380

Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:24 pm

Finn350 wrote:
A380 will fly into 2030s easily with the EK. Their own airport is slot restricted, and even if DWC is completed, many of their destinations are slot restricted. Furthermore, as A380 has no resale value, it would very expensive to replace them with new twin-aisles. I would assume EK will fly their A380s 15-20 years old.

par13del wrote:
Ah, but if EK chooses and EA continues support, they have about 90 EA powered frames which they may be able to run longer if they forgo the 12 year lease arrangement.

EK's real problem is they're going from having leading edge economics to trailing edge economics in a short period of time.

They built their operation on low cost but that's changing quickly and they'll have to downsize just as fast to stay ahead of the curve.

They will now see what it is like to operate TXWBs and probably will be involved with UltraFans in the mid-late 2025s.

They will not want to refurbish the EA GP airframes, those will go as leases end.

If they get a nice deal to pick up something like an A350K with UltraFan it could make sense to squeeze out the A380 with T900 sooner rather than later.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:33 pm

747megatop wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
747megatop wrote:
BTW, this makes an interesting read. It kind of lays out and definitely puts the whole A380 debacle in perspective -

https://www.sauder.ubc.ca/Faculty/Resea ... irbus.ashx

What stuck out to me (which I had not realized before) was the stupendous amount of money spent around the world to upgrade airports to accommodate the beast. I knew it was a lot but the figures shown here are staggering.

Absolutely. This alone makes the A 380 an embarrassment of monumental proportions in the recent history of commercial jet era (granted though that it was a technological marvel).

First, many of those expenses were for additional gates. We're talking $5 million per month for multiple gates, not a bad investment. At LHR, it was 4 gates at T3.

For the most part, not a big deal. Ten A380 are $2.5 billion+.

Look at how many airports became 747 ready with the FAA's million pound (later derated to 950,000 l ) runway and taxiway concept. I know LAX claimed they had to rebuild a runway for the A380 when it was just time. Before SFO put in the money to become A380 ready, it had the worst potholes. Much of that money was to tear up and repair taxiways that needed it anyway.

There will be again a VLA. Upper floor lounges with escalators down to double (or triple) gates won't be wasted.

The issue was the A380 is just too small to bring down the cost per passenger.

Interesting link. We need to ship that professor one of the medals for predicting A380 failure from the start. :trophy:

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Polot
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:35 pm

Erebus wrote:
In hindsight, Airbus's initial market forecast for the A380 was overestimated by a long way but I think they could have gotten away with a worst case number of just 300-350 had it not been for the other unknowns such as the production snags, GFC/oil spike, in-service issues like the wing cracks to name a few.

GFC/oil spike is just an excuse people cling on to try and blame something other than the aircraft/it’s market. There is no such thing as unlimited positive economic growth, it is always boom then bust. Before the GFC it was the dot.com bubble burst/post 9/11 recession. Before that it was the Asian Financial Crisis. Before that it was the early 90s recession. If the market for the A380 was truely there it would have weathered the GFC just like the 777/787/A350/A330. It would have weathered the oil spike (it was still also available when oil prices plummeted).
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:51 pm

SEPilot wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
VV wrote:
Some bloggers have always had a consistent opinion on the market for big quads. The have all been bashed by all sorts of people.
They could potentially say, "I told you so.", But they don't say it.


It's easy to defend an obvious point.
It takes vision to explore new horizons.
The A380 was the fruit of vision and a small carrier from the sandpit used it as a tool to make itself the third largest airline in the world in the span of 8 years, while wiping away billions of potential profits from its competitors and forcing some of them like QF to capitulate and join forces.

I predict that within 10 years technology will come out that can make the A380 a twin with a small loss of range and better economics than any other aircraft.
It's not rocket science, the current A330neo has the same range as the original A343, so it is possible.

But by then Enders will be at the beach and playing with his grandchildren while the executives at Airbus bite their nails off at the lost opportunities from Enders ending the A380 program prematurely instead of putting it in the freezer.
Enders is making a huge mistake and I'm telling you so.

The A380 was too heavy with too big a wing to compete with the latest twins, even if it were converted to a twin. If demand for a double decker arises in the future it will be a clean sheet design. A warmed-over A380 won’t cut it.


By what measure was it too heavy?

The too big wing is an airliners.net myth that we read anywhere but people writng that don't know what they're talking about.
If the A380 had a lighter, smaller wing, the TORR would have been unacceptably long and range too little.
For the A389, the idea was to trade range for empty weight and payload, but at marginally higher MTOW.

When you design such a big aircrafy, you want to make sure that range wouldn't become a restriction.

Sure, they could have made it lighter, but when you restrict it to 12.000km range, the market may become even smaller than it is.

Again and again, I repeat that at 600 USD per ton of jet fuel, the A380's economics are good.

In my opinion, the A380 is a commercial success.
It will have sold in more than 250 units, which is a lot considering that it is like stacking an A332 on a B77W.
It's a bigger aircraft with its set of limitations, so you can't expect it to sell as many as a B787 or an A350.
John Leahy shouldn't have allowed Boeing to win any of the B748i campaigns. Those few units would have been crucial for the A380.
They should also have pushed forward with Fedex and UPS regardless of the delays but they got lazy.

The growth potential is there for sure.
Two years is a long time, things change.
The new Airbus management may reconsider the mistake. All eyes on new technologies and China.
If China starts merging their airlines and going after international growth, which I predict they will do, we will see a growth strategy like never before, dwarfing the ME3 in no time.
Building more airports is not a solution for long haul travel demand, you can't connect all these second tier cities to far away destinations. Those airports will be used to feed the hubs.
China will reduce long haul hubs and focus on 5 hubs imo: CAN, PVG, HKG, PVG and CTU. This can be seen already in how the traffic is growing at those airports.
Between 2010-2018, the top 5 Chinese airports have grown from 210 milion pax to 350 million pax.
Extrapolate from that and you will find out that by 2025, China is going to have a real problem.
We talk a lot about how LHR or DXB are mega airports, but by 2026, Chinese airports will constitue the top 5 busiest airports in the world and airports the size of LHR will double ttaffic every 6-7 years.
There is only one way to achieve that. The aircraft have to become bigger.

The small widebodies will become domestic feeders and the narrowbodies will vanish, at least from the big airports. There is potential there for the B777X but even that will be too small.

I said a while ago that the Chinese will dwarf the ME3. Dubai has already thrown in the towels because they can't compete on fares.
Perhaps the ME3 want to kill the whale before the Chinese get their hands on them. That is their only hope to delay the inevitable.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:00 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

It's easy to defend an obvious point.
It takes vision to explore new horizons.
The A380 was the fruit of vision and a small carrier from the sandpit used it as a tool to make itself the third largest airline in the world in the span of 8 years, while wiping away billions of potential profits from its competitors and forcing some of them like QF to capitulate and join forces.

I predict that within 10 years technology will come out that can make the A380 a twin with a small loss of range and better economics than any other aircraft.
It's not rocket science, the current A330neo has the same range as the original A343, so it is possible.

But by then Enders will be at the beach and playing with his grandchildren while the executives at Airbus bite their nails off at the lost opportunities from Enders ending the A380 program prematurely instead of putting it in the freezer.
Enders is making a huge mistake and I'm telling you so.

The A380 was too heavy with too big a wing to compete with the latest twins, even if it were converted to a twin. If demand for a double decker arises in the future it will be a clean sheet design. A warmed-over A380 won’t cut it.


By what measure was it too heavy?

The too big wing is an airliners.net myth that we read anywhere but people writng that don't know what they're talking about.
If the A380 had a lighter, smaller wing, the TORR would have been unacceptably long and range too little.
For the A389, the idea was to trade range for empty weight and payload, but at marginally higher MTOW.

When you design such a big aircrafy, you want to make sure that range wouldn't become a restriction.

Sure, they could have made it lighter, but when you restrict it to 12.000km range, the market may become even smaller than it is.

Again and again, I repeat that at 600 USD per ton of jet fuel, the A380's economics are good.

In my opinion, the A380 is a commercial success.
It will have sold in more than 250 units, which is a lot considering that it is like stacking an A332 on a B77W.
It's a bigger aircraft with its set of limitations, so you can't expect it to sell as many as a B787 or an A350.
John Leahy shouldn't have allowed Boeing to win any of the B748i campaigns. Those few units would have been crucial for the A380.
They should also have pushed forward with Fedex and UPS regardless of the delays but they got lazy.

The growth potential is there for sure.
Two years is a long time, things change.
The new Airbus management may reconsider the mistake. All eyes on new technologies and China.
If China starts merging their airlines and going after international growth, which I predict they will do, we will see a growth strategy like never before, dwarfing the ME3 in no time.
Building more airports is not a solution for long haul travel demand, you can't connect all these second tier cities to far away destinations. Those airports will be used to feed the hubs.
China will reduce long haul hubs and focus on 5 hubs imo: CAN, PVG, HKG, PVG and CTU. This can be seen already in how the traffic is growing at those airports.
Between 2010-2018, the top 5 Chinese airports have grown from 210 milion pax to 350 million pax.
Extrapolate from that and you will find out that by 2025, China is going to have a real problem.
We talk a lot about how LHR or DXB are mega airports, but by 2026, Chinese airports will constitue the top 5 busiest airports in the world and airports the size of LHR will double ttaffic every 6-7 years.
There is only one way to achieve that. The aircraft have to become bigger.

The small widebodies will become domestic feeders and the narrowbodies will vanish, at least from the big airports. There is potential there for the B777X but even that will be too small.

I said a while ago that the Chinese will dwarf the ME3. Dubai has already thrown in the towels because they can't compete on fares.
Perhaps the ME3 want to kill the whale before the Chinese get their hands on them. That is their only hope to delay the inevitable.
True 100%

I recently landed at the current PEK or Beijing Capital Airport, obviously not the one being built currently.... But just the sheer size of PEK will taxing past the buildings towards a gate position made it clear that it is massive.

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747megatop
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:36 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
VV wrote:
Some bloggers have always had a consistent opinion on the market for big quads. The have all been bashed by all sorts of people.
They could potentially say, "I told you so.", But they don't say it.


It's easy to defend an obvious point.
It takes vision to explore new horizons.
The A380 was the fruit of vision and a small carrier from the sandpit used it as a tool to make itself the third largest airline in the world in the span of 8 years, while wiping away billions of potential profits from its competitors and forcing some of them like QF to capitulate and join forces.

I predict that within 10 years technology will come out that can make the A380 a twin with a small loss of range and better economics than any other aircraft.
It's not rocket science, the current A330neo has the same range as the original A343, so it is possible.

But by then Enders will be at the beach and playing with his grandchildren while the executives at Airbus bite their nails off at the lost opportunities from Enders ending the A380 program prematurely instead of putting it in the freezer.
Enders is making a huge mistake and I'm telling you so.


Are you suggesting that Enders made this decision and signed off on it all by himself? If that is what you are suggesting (by saying Enders is making a huge mistake) then Airbus is a very badly run company with no corporate governance AND accountability.

I am sure a large company like Airbus with wonderful products like A320 & A330 is run by professional people with a lot of governance and accountability. I am sure that the decision has been made collectively by the board and multiple stake holders (including Govts?) and Enders is just the messenger along with significantly being a part of the decision process (if not initiating it/driving it) in his capacity as CEO of the Airbus Group. I would be surprised if the key people mentioned here - https://www.airbus.com/company/corporat ... ttees.html were not involved in the decision to pull he plug on a flagship product such as the A380.
 
VV
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:50 pm

747megatop wrote:
.... snipped ....
I am sure a large company like Airbus with wonderful products like A320 & A330 is run by professional people with a lot of governance and accountability. I am sure that the decision has been made collectively by the board and multiple stake holders (including Govts?) and Enders is just the messenger along with significantly being a part of the decision process (if not initiating it/driving it) in his capacity as CEO of the Airbus Group. I would be surprised if the key people mentioned here - https://www.airbus.com/company/corporat ... ttees.html were not involved in the decision to pull he plug on a flagship product such as the A380.


Correct.

My estimates tell me that the decision was already discussed and taken taken about eighteen to twelve months ago.
 
mzlin
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:16 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

By what measure was it too heavy?

The too big wing is an airliners.net myth that we read anywhere but people writng that don't know what they're talking about.
If the A380 had a lighter, smaller wing, the TORR would have been unacceptably long and range too little.
For the A389, the idea was to trade range for empty weight and payload, but at marginally higher MTOW.

When you design such a big aircrafy, you want to make sure that range wouldn't become a restriction.

Sure, they could have made it lighter, but when you restrict it to 12.000km range, the market may become even smaller than it is.



None other than a major A380 customer and one of the ME3, Al Baker, has said the wing is too big:

“To me, this aircraft is very heavy, has very high fuel consumption, and that’s because the aircraft structure was built for a stretch. I think Airbus made the same mistake they made with the A330 and A340, which had a common wing. The A380’s structure can take another 100 tons. It would have been better if they had tailor-made the wing to suit the size of the airplane. Which means you would have taken so much weight off the wing that you would have been able to make it very fuel-efficient and then it would have been a perfect airplane.”

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/qat ... 80-failed/
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:26 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
In my opinion, the A380 is a commercial success.
It will have sold in more than 250 units, which is a lot considering that it is like stacking an A332 on a B77W.
It's a bigger aircraft with its set of limitations, so you can't expect it to sell as many as a B787 or an A350.
John Leahy shouldn't have allowed Boeing to win any of the B748i campaigns. Those few units would have been crucial for the A380.
They should also have pushed forward with Fedex and UPS regardless of the delays but they got lazy.

By what measure is it a commercial success? The original break-even point was 250 frames, and this was revised upwards more than once as the production gremlins gremlined.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The growth potential is there for sure.
Two years is a long time, things change.
The new Airbus management may reconsider the mistake.

Two years is a long time. So is three years: the length of time since the last order which is actually going to be delivered (ANA, 3 frames, Emirates 2 frames ex-Skymark). The last orders before that were 2 years earlier still (Amedeo, 20 frames, which they never seemed to be able to place and which has now lapsesd; Emirates, 50 frames, which they have now reduced to 31).

In fact in the decade and a bit from January 1 2009 to present Airbus took orders for 167 A380s (Korean Air, 2; Emirates, 32; Skymark, 4; Asiana, 6; Skymark, 2; Lufthansa, 2; Qatar Airways, 5; Hong Kong Airlines, 10; Transaero, 4; Singapore Airlines, 5; Emirates, 50; Amedeo, 20; ANA, 3; Emirates, 2; Emirates; 20) but also took cancellations for 116 A380s (Air Austral, 2; ILFC, 10; Lufthansa, 3; Kingfisher, 5; Skymark, 6; Kingdom Holding Company, 1; Air France, 2; Virgin Atlantic, 6; Hong Kong Airlines, 10; Qantas, 8; Emirates, 39; Amedeo, 20; Transaero, 4). So in the course of a decade, the net orders were 51 aircraft. I’m quite certain that if Airbus had any prospects of selling more aircraft in the coming years they would have kept going. But at some point you have to ask yourself whether it is worth holding out in the hope of something big somewhere in the future. They’ve been asking that question for years, and this month they came to a different conclusion than they had been for the previous few years.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
All eyes on new technologies and China.
If China starts merging their airlines and going after international growth, which I predict they will do, we will see a growth strategy like never before, dwarfing the ME3 in no time.
Building more airports is not a solution for long haul travel demand, you can't connect all these second tier cities to far away destinations. Those airports will be used to feed the hubs.
China will reduce long haul hubs and focus on 5 hubs imo: CAN, PVG, HKG, PVG and CTU. This can be seen already in how the traffic is growing at those airports.
Between 2010-2018, the top 5 Chinese airports have grown from 210 milion pax to 350 million pax.
Extrapolate from that and you will find out that by 2025, China is going to have a real problem.
We talk a lot about how LHR or DXB are mega airports, but by 2026, Chinese airports will constitue the top 5 busiest airports in the world and airports the size of LHR will double ttaffic every 6-7 years.
There is only one way to achieve that. The aircraft have to become bigger.

The small widebodies will become domestic feeders and the narrowbodies will vanish, at least from the big airports. There is potential there for the B777X but even that will be too small.

I said a while ago that the Chinese will dwarf the ME3. Dubai has already thrown in the towels because they can't compete on fares.
Perhaps the ME3 want to kill the whale before the Chinese get their hands on them. That is their only hope to delay the inevitable.

5 hubs for a country of nearly 1 and a half billion people covering a land area approximately equal to the USA or Europe. You’d be laughed out if the room if you suggested either Europe or the USA would only have 5 long-haul hubs. I would suggest it is equally laughable to suggest China would only have 5.

You are right about aircraft needing to become bigger. But if the bulk of your movements are 737-700/-800s, A319/A320s, and A330s, then becoming bigger can be achieved with 737-9/10s, A321s, 787s, A350s, 777s. Once the majority of movements are A350s and 777s, then you really need to think about something bigger. But Airbus can’t sit on the A380 programme for a decade or more waiting for that to happen. One, it is not an insignificant cost to keep the supply chain going. Two, let’s say there was a demand for a larger aircraft in 2030. By that stage the A380 is approaching 3 decades old. What guarantee is there it would compete against a clean sheet offering at the time? 50/50 at best I would say. If they truly believe there will be demand for a VLA again at some indeterminate point in the future, perhaps saving billions of euros in the coming decade by closing the A380 and making billions of euros by focusing on selling aircraft actually in demand by the market will allow them to pay for the development of a new large aircraft in the 2030s.

The Bristol Brabazon would have been the right size aircraft for a lot of the mid-/long-haul traffic in the UK and Europe from the 1980s onward. But it would have been madness to keep the thing in production for 3-4 decades waiting for that to happen. Especially when advances in technology would have rendered it entirely obsolete. The A380 isn’t the Brabazon by any stretch of the imagination, but the lesson still seems fairly clear.

V/F
Last edited by VirginFlyer on Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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N14AZ
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:27 pm

747megatop wrote:
I am sure that the decision has been made collectively by the board and multiple stake holders (including Govts?)

That’s actually something that suprised me. The total lack of political influence. Well, at least not a single word from a politician was mentioned in the German press. And I think that’s positive.

Maybe they had talked to some politicians and they just said „do what you want but do not mention my name“.
 
OldAeroGuy
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:46 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:

The too big wing is an airliners.net myth that we read anywhere but people writng that don't know what they're talking about.
If the A380 had a lighter, smaller wing, the TORR would have been unacceptably long and range too little.


Let's compare some wing aspect ratios:

773ER: 9.04
A359: 9.49
A3510: 9.03
777-9: 9.96
A388: 7.53

It's clear that the A388 suffers from a poor aspect ratio (AR) compared to its Twin engine competition.

With its span fixed at 80m, the A388's 25% poorer AR is due to its excess wing area. The higher than necessary wing area causes excess skin friction drag and increases empty weight.

Given the better takeoff performance of Quads, a higher wing loading (less wing area) would have been acceptable as A388 TOFL's could have been comparable to the Twins.

Less outboard fuel due to less outboard wing area could have been offset by having wing center section fuel so range would not have been impacted.

The A388 wing could have been much better if A389 requirements had been included in its design.

The fact that the A388 wing has excess area is not an Anet myth.
Last edited by OldAeroGuy on Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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mxaxai
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:49 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
By what measure was it too heavy?

The too big wing is an airliners.net myth that we read anywhere but people writng that don't know what they're talking about.
If the A380 had a lighter, smaller wing, the TORR would have been unacceptably long and range too little.
For the A389, the idea was to trade range for empty weight and payload, but at marginally higher MTOW.

When you design such a big aircrafy, you want to make sure that range wouldn't become a restriction.

Sure, they could have made it lighter, but when you restrict it to 12.000km range, the market may become even smaller than it is.

The A380 was designed around 590 - 600 t MTOW. Even at 575 t, it has the range for some of the worlds longest flights and is often limited by volume, not weight when it comes to belly freight. It also has excellent runway performance. You could have easily dropped 5 - 10 % MTOW without huge reductions in range.

In EK's 2-class configuration, the 77W has an OEW of 0.393 tons per passenger, while the A380 clocks in at 0.447 tons per passenger. In QR's case, the 787-8 is at 0.447 tons per passenger while the A380 is at 0.531 tons per passenger. In other words, the A380 could and should be designed at least 10 % more efficient structurally than it is.
In hindsight, they also should've used more CFRP (which made huge advances in cost) and not used GLARE (which turned out to be very expensive).
 
Strato2
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:55 pm

VV wrote:
par13del wrote:
VV wrote:
During years the others only said, "I warn you it will be a failure." And they got bashed. Only today they can say "I told you so."

I think we all know the genuine detractors of the A380 who always tried to give reasons for their opinion versus those who like you say, just wanted it to fail, unfortunately, we do a disservice to the forum when we lump them all together.


No, they didn't want it to fail. They only said there was no market for that aircraft.


LOL. Then you haven't paid attention very much I'm afraid. Many A380 haters have been giving "reasons" all these years. That some of them have stumbled into being sort of partially correct is no testament to their shining wisdom or foresight but pure luck.
 
Strato2
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:01 pm

mxaxai wrote:
In EK's 2-class configuration, the 77W has an OEW of 0.393 tons per passenger, while the A380 clocks in at 0.447 tons per passenger. In QR's case, the 787-8 is at 0.447 tons per passenger while the A380 is at 0.531 tons per passenger. In other words, the A380 could and should be designed at least 10 % more efficient structurally than it is.


A classic apples to oranges comparison. The Boeing products mentioned above are torture chambers for the pax whereas the A380 is much much better. The only thing that tells is Boeing planes are crammed full of people that are suffering the whole journey.
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:16 pm

N14AZ wrote:
747megatop wrote:
I am sure that the decision has been made collectively by the board and multiple stake holders (including Govts?)

That’s actually something that suprised me. The total lack of political influence. Well, at least not a single word from a politician was mentioned in the German press. And I think that’s positive.

Maybe they had talked to some politicians and they just said „do what you want but do not mention my name“.

Also not great to call too much attention to taxpayer money lost to forgiven loans.
 
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par13del
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:21 pm

Strato2 wrote:
A classic apples to oranges comparison. The Boeing products mentioned above are torture chambers for the pax whereas the A380 is much much better. The only thing that tells is Boeing planes are crammed full of people that are suffering the whole journey.

Funny how the Boeing planes - 777W at 9 wide - and 787 at 8 wide - were comfortable but as soon as airlines got a hold of them they crammed 10 and 9 wide in them making them unbearable, guess Boeing has to take the fall for those airlines.
Now one could ask, if Airbus did go 11 wide allowing more folks to be crammed into the A380, would they still be producing them in a bus configuration?
So far only EK got a couple frames in excess of 600 pax, maybe that was the down fall, too much pax comfort which did not bring in revenue.
 
VV
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:27 pm

Strato2 wrote:
VV wrote:
par13del wrote:
I think we all know the genuine detractors of the A380 who always tried to give reasons for their opinion versus those who like you say, just wanted it to fail, unfortunately, we do a disservice to the forum when we lump them all together.


No, they didn't want it to fail. They only said there was no market for that aircraft.


LOL. Then you haven't paid attention very much I'm afraid. Many A380 haters have been giving "reasons" all these years. That some of them have stumbled into being sort of partially correct is no testament to their shining wisdom or foresight but pure luck.


I think there is a big difference between giving a reason why a program would fail and "wanting it to fail".

What has just happened last week?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:32 pm

Strato2 wrote:
LOL. Then you haven't paid attention very much I'm afraid. Many A380 haters have been giving "reasons" all these years. That some of them have stumbled into being sort of partially correct is no testament to their shining wisdom or foresight but pure luck.

Strato2 wrote:
A classic apples to oranges comparison. The Boeing products mentioned above are torture chambers for the pax whereas the A380 is much much better. The only thing that tells is Boeing planes are crammed full of people that are suffering the whole journey.

First you complain about A380 haters then go on to describe Boeing products as torture chambers.

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VV
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:38 pm

Seriously guys, I am wondering if people here want to understand the truth or just trolling others.

I think the second option is the right one.

Airbus announced formally they are going to stop producing the aircraft in 2021. Is that so difficult to understand that it has not gone as expected.

There is no reason to debate it to death again.

By the way, there is an interesting chart you may want to see.

Image
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:58 pm

I can't believe the sheer number of illogical fanboys who refused to believe the A380 is done. It's done. It's not coming back. The airlines have spoken. Airbus and it's entire BoD and management team have spoken. Suppliers are wrapping things and getting ready to mothball and junk their tooling.

The A380 was flawed. It's dead. It's not coming back. Live, learn, and move on. Airbus will be a better company without it.
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musman9853
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:14 pm

Strato2 wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
In EK's 2-class configuration, the 77W has an OEW of 0.393 tons per passenger, while the A380 clocks in at 0.447 tons per passenger. In QR's case, the 787-8 is at 0.447 tons per passenger while the A380 is at 0.531 tons per passenger. In other words, the A380 could and should be designed at least 10 % more efficient structurally than it is.


A classic apples to oranges comparison. The Boeing products mentioned above are torture chambers for the pax whereas the A380 is much much better. The only thing that tells is Boeing planes are crammed full of people that are suffering the whole journey.



pax comfort has more to do with the airline's layout than the plane itself. Delta's 737s are much more comfortable than easyjet's a320s.
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mxaxai
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:29 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Airbus will be a better company without it.

The stock market has spoken as well. A jump of around 10 % since the announcement.
 
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Erebus
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:32 pm

Polot wrote:
Erebus wrote:
In hindsight, Airbus's initial market forecast for the A380 was overestimated by a long way but I think they could have gotten away with a worst case number of just 300-350 had it not been for the other unknowns such as the production snags, GFC/oil spike, in-service issues like the wing cracks to name a few.

GFC/oil spike is just an excuse people cling on to try and blame something other than the aircraft/it’s market. There is no such thing as unlimited positive economic growth, it is always boom then bust. Before the GFC it was the dot.com bubble burst/post 9/11 recession. Before that it was the Asian Financial Crisis. Before that it was the early 90s recession. If the market for the A380 was truely there it would have weathered the GFC just like the 777/787/A350/A330. It would have weathered the oil spike (it was still also available when oil prices plummeted).


I wasn't deflecting blame away from the aircraft and the market nor was I using the GFC as an excuse for them to not reach their forecast of some 1,000-odd units. What I'm implying is that they could have scored a handful of orders more than what they already booked had it not been for those issues, just about broken even and called it a day without losing their shirts over it. But of course, it was never going to be a sound business decision if that was all they could achieve.
 
VV
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:24 pm

mxaxai wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Airbus will be a better company without it.

The stock market has spoken as well. A jump of around 10 % since the announcement.


Absolutely true, proving again that the program has never been viable and was a liability.
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:11 am

VV wrote:
Seriously guys, I am wondering if people here want to understand the truth or just trolling others.

I think the second option is the right one.

Airbus announced formally they are going to stop producing the aircraft in 2021. Is that so difficult to understand that it has not gone as expected.

There is no reason to debate it to death again.

By the way, there is an interesting chart you may want to see.

Image


Turns out that the whipping boy of a certain section of airliners.net for being wildly pessimistic was merely the first to call out that the emperor had no clothes....
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:52 am

VV wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Airbus will be a better company without it.

The stock market has spoken as well. A jump of around 10 % since the announcement.


Absolutely true, proving again that the program has never been viable and was a liability.


So you think that the stock market are the rationals? Most of the stock market is just reacting to news for short-term trades.
The Airbus stock is not even worth 40 EUR if you go by fundamentals.

GEUltraFan9XGTF, fanboyism is written in your alias, not in mine.
Credit should be given where due and the same for criticism.

mxaxai wrote:
EK's 2-class configuration, the 77W has an OEW of 0.393 tons per passenger, while the A380 clocks in at 0.447 tons per passenger. In QR's case, the 787-8 is at 0.447 tons per passenger while the A380 is at 0.531 tons per passenger. In other words, the A380 could and should be designed at least 10 % more efficient structurally than it is.
In hindsight, they also should've used more CFRP (which made huge advances in cost) and not used GLARE (which turned out to be very expensive).


No, in other words your indicators are irrelevant.
I think that it makes more sense to compare floor space versus OEW.
B777W OEW / Floor area 170tons / 340m² 0,5 tons / m²
A380 OEW / Floor area 280 tons / 580m² 0,48 tons / m²

That A380 operators decide to operate low density configurations on the A380 versus high density configurations on the B77W is their decision, but in no way should it be interpreted as inefficiencies of the design.
Where the B77W and subsequently the B777X will win consistently is freight capacity.
So if you include that, one could say that the B77W has higher payload capabilities per unit of empty weight.

Another relevant indicator is fuel burn per unit of floor space.
Here again, the A380 wins with 21kg/hour per m² versus 22kg/hour per m² of the B77W.
The B77W wins when freight is included.


However, overall quite irrelevant parameters considering the cheap fuel.
Where the A380 can't be beaten today, is the amount of real estate that you get for your monthly lease.
The A350, B77X, B787 promise unbeaten fuel burn per unit of payload, but are uber expensive to purchase/lease. The same could be said of the A321neo.

Basically what airline executives are doing today is paying double digit more money to Airbus and Boeing for models that offer double digit fuel burn reductions.
At a time of cheap fuel, and considering the consequences of the 'bleeding edge of engine technology', the ROI is very questionable.

OPEC are crying their hearts off while Airbus and Boeing are racking up record profits.


Image

Source IATA / Platts

We can pretend that it's the A380's fault as an overbuilt design based on non-technical rumors, but the real thing that is happening is that clueless executives are chairing airlines' boards and are doing the monkey-see, monkey-do thing. Nobody buys A380's, so everybody else isn't buying.
All said executives are good at doing is pretending to be god's gifts to aviation and pretending to run the show.
MOL was a god for a while but in his new strategy he is setting up FR for its downfall. AAB came to Italy promising Air Italy 20 B787's but already cutting routes before starting them, as I predicted.
At the moment, only DL management earns a competent status in my eyes, they're the only ones knowing what they're doing and with co*ones to try something different.
Remember that the industry was prepared to let the Cseries die the same way Airbus is killing the A380 until DL stepped in and now suddenly the A220 is the holy grail that everybody and their mother wants in their fleet.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:15 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

It's easy to defend an obvious point.
It takes vision to explore new horizons.
The A380 was the fruit of vision and a small carrier from the sandpit used it as a tool to make itself the third largest airline in the world in the span of 8 years, while wiping away billions of potential profits from its competitors and forcing some of them like QF to capitulate and join forces.

I predict that within 10 years technology will come out that can make the A380 a twin with a small loss of range and better economics than any other aircraft.
It's not rocket science, the current A330neo has the same range as the original A343, so it is possible.

But by then Enders will be at the beach and playing with his grandchildren while the executives at Airbus bite their nails off at the lost opportunities from Enders ending the A380 program prematurely instead of putting it in the freezer.
Enders is making a huge mistake and I'm telling you so.

The A380 was too heavy with too big a wing to compete with the latest twins, even if it were converted to a twin. If demand for a double decker arises in the future it will be a clean sheet design. A warmed-over A380 won’t cut it.


By what measure was it too heavy?

The too big wing is an airliners.net myth that we read anywhere but people writng that don't know what they're talking about.
If the A380 had a lighter, smaller wing, the TORR would have been unacceptably long and range too little.
For the A389, the idea was to trade range for empty weight and payload, but at marginally higher MTOW.

When you design such a big aircrafy, you want to make sure that range wouldn't become a restriction.

Sure, they could have made it lighter, but when you restrict it to 12.000km range, the market may become even smaller than it is.

Again and again, I repeat that at 600 USD per ton of jet fuel, the A380's economics are good.

In my opinion, the A380 is a commercial success.
It will have sold in more than 250 units, which is a lot considering that it is like stacking an A332 on a B77W.
It's a bigger aircraft with its set of limitations, so you can't expect it to sell as many as a B787 or an A350.
John Leahy shouldn't have allowed Boeing to win any of the B748i campaigns. Those few units would have been crucial for the A380.
They should also have pushed forward with Fedex and UPS regardless of the delays but they got lazy.

The growth potential is there for sure.
Two years is a long time, things change.
The new Airbus management may reconsider the mistake. All eyes on new technologies and China.
If China starts merging their airlines and going after international growth, which I predict they will do, we will see a growth strategy like never before, dwarfing the ME3 in no time.
Building more airports is not a solution for long haul travel demand, you can't connect all these second tier cities to far away destinations. Those airports will be used to feed the hubs.
China will reduce long haul hubs and focus on 5 hubs imo: CAN, PVG, HKG, PVG and CTU. This can be seen already in how the traffic is growing at those airports.
Between 2010-2018, the top 5 Chinese airports have grown from 210 milion pax to 350 million pax.
Extrapolate from that and you will find out that by 2025, China is going to have a real problem.
We talk a lot about how LHR or DXB are mega airports, but by 2026, Chinese airports will constitue the top 5 busiest airports in the world and airports the size of LHR will double ttaffic every 6-7 years.
There is only one way to achieve that. The aircraft have to become bigger.

The small widebodies will become domestic feeders and the narrowbodies will vanish, at least from the big airports. There is potential there for the B777X but even that will be too small.

I said a while ago that the Chinese will dwarf the ME3. Dubai has already thrown in the towels because they can't compete on fares.
Perhaps the ME3 want to kill the whale before the Chinese get their hands on them. That is their only hope to delay the inevitable.


Well way to go against the grain! But do you have any skin in the game?
 
XT6Wagon
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:06 am

JustSomeDood wrote:
Turns out that the whipping boy of a certain section of airliners.net for being wildly pessimistic was merely the first to call out that the emperor had no clothes....


In this case its more Emperor doing meat spin in the town plaza while yelling at the top of his lungs. Airbus's market prediction was made of fairy tails and unicorn dreams. Clearly the US market which didn't even bother with the 773 would need HUNDREDS of A380.

I really wish Airbus basedlined the plane on A388 and shaved off the tons put in to support the A389 and A380F markets. Cheaper to produce, cheaper to operate, and same revenue potential.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:23 am

Lightsaber wrote:
We need to ship that professor one of the medals for predicting A380 failure from the start.


Not to detract from the good professor but this was the default belief of business folks (outside Airbus) at the time.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The too big wing is an airliners.net myth that we read anywhere but people writng that don't know what they're talking about.


I guess the guy who DESIGNED THE WINGS doesn't know what he's talking about:

Airbus executive vice president Tom Williams says that expanding the already huge A380-800 to even larger variants was the plan from the start.

“I lead the team that designed the wings of the A380, and (when she first saw the models) even my good lady wife was quick to point out that the wings are very big in comparison to the fuselage” Williams told Australian Business Traveller in 2011.

“The wings are in fact designed for a much larger airplane, so we have the capability of going to a bigger fuselage – we can stretch the fuselage very easily.”


https://www.ausbt.com.au/airbus-confirm ... 80-stretch

You're giving us some real vintage A380 fanboy delusions here. That's become rare on a.net in recent years, especially rare in recent days. Congrats on your, um, persistence.
 
neutronstar73
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:51 am

VV wrote:
Some bloggers have always had a consistent opinion on the market for big quads. The have all been bashed by all sorts of people.
They could potentially say, "I told you so.", But they don't say it.


I think you've earned the right to say it. Especially as several VERY ARROGANT AND SMUG A380/Airbus boosters bashed the doubters relentlessly.

And now some of those very same boosters are making up all kinds of excuses and throwing nonsense or selling bad/senseless arguments out there., like how Boeing was "just as bad" by mildly updating the 747. I mean, yeah, the A380 is an impressive aircraft, but just because people had doubts about its viability doesn't detract from the aircraft's unique position in the marketplace.

But any derogatory comment about it is treated as sacrilege. Go figure.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:52 am

lightsaber wrote:
747megatop wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
What stuck out to me (which I had not realized before) was the stupendous amount of money spent around the world to upgrade airports to accommodate the beast. I knew it was a lot but the figures shown here are staggering.

Absolutely. This alone makes the A 380 an embarrassment of monumental proportions in the recent history of commercial jet era (granted though that it was a technological marvel).


Interesting link. We need to ship that professor one of the medals for predicting A380 failure from the start. :trophy:

Lightsaber


The 94 SWA map shows where WN really was doing Point to Point from the beginning. Yes there were what appear hubs but there are a dozen out of 3 dozen that have at least 4 flights. It was really focus cities that they each added routes to once it looked like it could fill a plane. By 2003, they added cities in the Pacific NW, the Atlantic Seaboard, and Florida. It doesn't really look like hubs, rather each city there in 93 now has like 10 destinations each. Yes, to go Transcon with WN one must do a 1 or 2 stop still today. Note no WN to Atlanta in these, must be a force field of some kind.

The US domestic was the first where the market moved past the majors and the majors had to do the same. Certain cities are hubs for an airline, but are spokes on another network. Alaska is strong in SEA and owns Alaska, Delta still owns ATL. But the route map looks so different today, SEA has more than doubled its destinations since I moved here 30 years ago. Only HNL was available direct and pretty expensive, nearly always went via SFO back then.

The same is happening across the globe, a steady stream of bypass flights coming online. Prof Gillen had it figured out 14 years ago.
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:29 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
VV wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
The stock market has spoken as well. A jump of around 10 % since the announcement.


Absolutely true, proving again that the program has never been viable and was a liability.


So you think that the stock market are the rationals? Most of the stock market is just reacting to news for short-term trades.
The Airbus stock is not even worth 40 EUR if you go by fundamentals.

GEUltraFan9XGTF, fanboyism is written in your alias, not in mine.
Credit should be given where due and the same for criticism.

mxaxai wrote:
EK's 2-class configuration, the 77W has an OEW of 0.393 tons per passenger, while the A380 clocks in at 0.447 tons per passenger. In QR's case, the 787-8 is at 0.447 tons per passenger while the A380 is at 0.531 tons per passenger. In other words, the A380 could and should be designed at least 10 % more efficient structurally than it is.
In hindsight, they also should've used more CFRP (which made huge advances in cost) and not used GLARE (which turned out to be very expensive).


No, in other words your indicators are irrelevant.
I think that it makes more sense to compare floor space versus OEW.
B777W OEW / Floor area 170tons / 340m² 0,5 tons / m²
A380 OEW / Floor area 280 tons / 580m² 0,48 tons / m²

That A380 operators decide to operate low density configurations on the A380 versus high density configurations on the B77W is their decision, but in no way should it be interpreted as inefficiencies of the design.
Where the B77W and subsequently the B777X will win consistently is freight capacity.
So if you include that, one could say that the B77W has higher payload capabilities per unit of empty weight.

Another relevant indicator is fuel burn per unit of floor space.
Here again, the A380 wins with 21kg/hour per m² versus 22kg/hour per m² of the B77W.
The B77W wins when freight is included.


However, overall quite irrelevant parameters considering the cheap fuel.
Where the A380 can't be beaten today, is the amount of real estate that you get for your monthly lease.
The A350, B77X, B787 promise unbeaten fuel burn per unit of payload, but are uber expensive to purchase/lease. The same could be said of the A321neo.

Basically what airline executives are doing today is paying double digit more money to Airbus and Boeing for models that offer double digit fuel burn reductions.
At a time of cheap fuel, and considering the consequences of the 'bleeding edge of engine technology', the ROI is very questionable.

OPEC are crying their hearts off while Airbus and Boeing are racking up record profits.


Image

Source IATA / Platts

We can pretend that it's the A380's fault as an overbuilt design based on non-technical rumors, but the real thing that is happening is that clueless executives are chairing airlines' boards and are doing the monkey-see, monkey-do thing. Nobody buys A380's, so everybody else isn't buying.
All said executives are good at doing is pretending to be god's gifts to aviation and pretending to run the show.
MOL was a god for a while but in his new strategy he is setting up FR for its downfall. AAB came to Italy promising Air Italy 20 B787's but already cutting routes before starting them, as I predicted.
At the moment, only DL management earns a competent status in my eyes, they're the only ones knowing what they're doing and with co*ones to try something different.
Remember that the industry was prepared to let the Cseries die the same way Airbus is killing the A380 until DL stepped in and now suddenly the A220 is the holy grail that everybody and their mother wants in their fleet.

Yeah those idiots who worry about using lower-cost-to-operate airplanes vs higher-cost-to-operate airplanes. What are they like even thinking? Fuel is cheap today, why worry about if that should ever change? Don’t they know that the 380 has lots of floor space?

Seriously, the margins you’re describing with your math are in the first instance less than 5% and in the second instance 4%. That’s assuming they mean anything at all, and if that I’m not convinced because you can’t monetize the whole floor space, and ticket pricing being so fluid that you have to make a million assumptions which means you can manipulate it to go your preferred direction easily.

Also, one more quibble, they don’t “pretend to run the show.” They DO run the show. You may think they’re daft, and that’s fine, but they actually make decisions about these things and have to face real consequences for those decisions. Meanwhile airbus has their government loans forgiven for their poor choices and avoids consequences.
 
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flee
Posts: 932
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: A380

Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:42 am

Revelation wrote:
Personally I think the end for A380 at EK will come before 2033 because presumably RR will have to keep paying EK for the T900 durability issues and EK will still end up with poor time on wing.

If I had to guess, it'd be 2026-8 or so but there could be some triggering event that brought it in sooner than that, like getting a really spectacular deal on trade ins.

This is an interesting point - RR may even consider offering to re-engine the whole EK fleet with Ultrafans instead of paying for the costly maintenance for the Trent 900. The A380 airframe will still have lots of life left in it.
 
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SEPilot
Posts: 5415
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:28 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

It's easy to defend an obvious point.
It takes vision to explore new horizons.
The A380 was the fruit of vision and a small carrier from the sandpit used it as a tool to make itself the third largest airline in the world in the span of 8 years, while wiping away billions of potential profits from its competitors and forcing some of them like QF to capitulate and join forces.

I predict that within 10 years technology will come out that can make the A380 a twin with a small loss of range and better economics than any other aircraft.
It's not rocket science, the current A330neo has the same range as the original A343, so it is possible.

But by then Enders will be at the beach and playing with his grandchildren while the executives at Airbus bite their nails off at the lost opportunities from Enders ending the A380 program prematurely instead of putting it in the freezer.
Enders is making a huge mistake and I'm telling you so.

The A380 was too heavy with too big a wing to compete with the latest twins, even if it were converted to a twin. If demand for a double decker arises in the future it will be a clean sheet design. A warmed-over A380 won’t cut it.


By what measure was it too heavy?

The too big wing is an airliners.net myth that we read anywhere but people writng that don't know what they're talking about.
If the A380 had a lighter, smaller wing, the TORR would have been unacceptably long and range too little.
For the A389, the idea was to trade range for empty weight and payload, but at marginally higher MTOW.

When you design such a big aircrafy, you want to make sure that range wouldn't become a restriction.

Sure, they could have made it lighter, but when you restrict it to 12.000km range, the market may become even smaller than it is.

Again and again, I repeat that at 600 USD per ton of jet fuel, the A380's economics are good.

In my opinion, the A380 is a commercial success.
It will have sold in more than 250 units, which is a lot considering that it is like stacking an A332 on a B77W.
It's a bigger aircraft with its set of limitations, so you can't expect it to sell as many as a B787 or an A350.
John Leahy shouldn't have allowed Boeing to win any of the B748i campaigns. Those few units would have been crucial for the A380.
They should also have pushed forward with Fedex and UPS regardless of the delays but they got lazy.

The growth potential is there for sure.
Two years is a long time, things change.
The new Airbus management may reconsider the mistake. All eyes on new technologies and China.
If China starts merging their airlines and going after international growth, which I predict they will do, we will see a growth strategy like never before, dwarfing the ME3 in no time.
Building more airports is not a solution for long haul travel demand, you can't connect all these second tier cities to far away destinations. Those airports will be used to feed the hubs.
China will reduce long haul hubs and focus on 5 hubs imo: CAN, PVG, HKG, PVG and CTU. This can be seen already in how the traffic is growing at those airports.
Between 2010-2018, the top 5 Chinese airports have grown from 210 milion pax to 350 million pax.
Extrapolate from that and you will find out that by 2025, China is going to have a real problem.
We talk a lot about how LHR or DXB are mega airports, but by 2026, Chinese airports will constitue the top 5 busiest airports in the world and airports the size of LHR will double ttaffic every 6-7 years.
There is only one way to achieve that. The aircraft have to become bigger.

The small widebodies will become domestic feeders and the narrowbodies will vanish, at least from the big airports. There is potential there for the B777X but even that will be too small.

I said a while ago that the Chinese will dwarf the ME3. Dubai has already thrown in the towels because they can't compete on fares.
Perhaps the ME3 want to kill the whale before the Chinese get their hands on them. That is their only hope to delay the inevitable.

The A350 is too heavy in relation to the latest generation of planes. I believe it is heavier per seat than the 787, the A350, the A330NEO, and the 779, and it has a higher CASM than any of them. It’s wing was designed for the stretch and the freighter, neither of which came into existence. Had it been designed with the optimum wing for the version that actually got built it would have had better economics. But even then it has much more floor space per seat than other airliners; were it given the same passenger density it would simply have more seats than any airliner could deal with. It also may not have enough room for their baggage, let alone any freight.

I don’t see how you can call it a commercial success when it only sold 251, and all but a few of them were sold for less than they cost to build. That means very little, if any, of the money spent in developing it was recovered. The definition of a commercial success for a project is one that makes money. This one lost boatloads of it.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 353
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:41 am

Matt6461 wrote:
Lightsaber wrote:
We need to ship that professor one of the medals for predicting A380 failure from the start.


Not to detract from the good professor but this was the default belief of business folks (outside Airbus) at the time.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The too big wing is an airliners.net myth that we read anywhere but people writng that don't know what they're talking about.


I guess the guy who DESIGNED THE WINGS doesn't know what he's talking about:

Airbus executive vice president Tom Williams says that expanding the already huge A380-800 to even larger variants was the plan from the start.

“I lead the team that designed the wings of the A380, and (when she first saw the models) even my good lady wife was quick to point out that the wings are very big in comparison to the fuselage” Williams told Australian Business Traveller in 2011.

“The wings are in fact designed for a much larger airplane, so we have the capability of going to a bigger fuselage – we can stretch the fuselage very easily.”


https://www.ausbt.com.au/airbus-confirm ... 80-stretch

You're giving us some real vintage A380 fanboy delusions here. That's become rare on a.net in recent years, especially rare in recent days. Congrats on your, um, persistence.


Show me in that quote where the executive in question says: "we're sorry, the wing is overbuilt and overweight and thus inefficient. Don't buy this plane.".
Just because a fuselage stretch can be taken doesn't mean that the wing is overweight and overbuilt.
The A389 wing would have needed strengthening to increase the MTOW towards 600 tons, this is common knowledge.

This is the way Airbus builds wings. They start with a conservative MTOW, add strengthening to increase MTOW step by step. This is what they do with each and every model of their family.

What you are saying is that the A321neo LR wing is overbuilt for the A320neo just because Airbus put some margin in it.
Should they be ashamed of the A320neo too?
Perhaps by that logic the A359 and the B789 should be thrown in the garbage too.

Some people around here know what they are talking about but the vast majority is jibberish.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1450
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:57 am

Strato2 wrote:
LOL. Then you haven't paid attention very much I'm afraid. Many A380 haters have been giving "reasons" all these years. That some of them have stumbled into being sort of partially correct is no testament to their shining wisdom or foresight but pure luck.

Yes, for years I have been saying the A380 has poor optimisation and gave reasons.

Firstly, the only reason Airbus picked the cross section was that it allowed for a larger version while hitting the 80m box limit. If the A380-800 floor area was to be fully optimised for the current capacity it would have been skinnier and hit the 80m box length limit straight away. It no doubt would have had a 3-3 upper deck very similar to a 747-8 cross section but with a full length upper deck. It would never have got the nickname "the whale".

Secondly, this extra length would have allowed the tail to be smaller due to greater moment arm. As no further stretch could be developed the extra weight from the landing gear and centre wingbox could be trimmed out. Empty weight would probably drop down to 260T.

Thirdly, moving onto the wing. With the slightly lower OEW the 80m wing limit would have allowed for less area and greater aspect ratio. A more optimised wing would give slightly better lift to drag ratio. MTOW would have been closer to 530T for similar payload/range giving a nice 5% fuel burn improvement.

Forthly, this changes the engine thrust requirement. The A380 uses 116inch diameter trents engines with around 80,000lb of thrust. An optimised A380-800 could have used the 112inch diameter trent engines that power the 787. The A380 could have then piggy backed on any PIPs that the 787 engines received.
 
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Matt6461
Posts: 2902
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:03 am

RJMAZ wrote:
The A380 uses 116inch diameter trents engines with around 80,000lb of thrust. An optimised A380-800 could have used the 112inch diameter trent engines that power the 787. The A380 could have then piggy backed on any PIPs that the 787 engines received.


You're right about the cross section etc. - sounds eerily familiar ;) - but A380 couldn't have used 787's engines because they didn't exist yet. Airbus could have and should have set its engine RFP for lighter, smaller engines to match a better, more efficient design but these wouldn't have been 787 generation had they launched A380 in 2000 (of course they should have waited at least a couple years).
Last edited by Matt6461 on Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
hz747300
Posts: 2347
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 11:38 pm

Re: A380

Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:12 am

Finn350 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
A380 will fly into 2030s easily with the EK. Their own airport is slot restricted, and even if DWC is completed, many of their destinations are slot restricted. Furthermore, as A380 has no resale value, it would very expensive to replace them with new twin-aisles. I would assume EK will fly their A380s 15-20 years old.


I tend to agree, but we have no idea what aircraft would be available in the 10-12 year mark. I suspect the cost of maintenance will likely go up for the A380 and then cause problems with keeping them beyond 10 years, 12 years max. At some point, Airbus may seek to buy them back as fleet numbers dwindle if the cost of keeping spare parts channels grow higher and higher with less and less return.
Keep on truckin'...
 
JustSomeDood
Posts: 377
Joined: Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:05 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:15 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Matt6461 wrote:
Lightsaber wrote:
We need to ship that professor one of the medals for predicting A380 failure from the start.


Not to detract from the good professor but this was the default belief of business folks (outside Airbus) at the time.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The too big wing is an airliners.net myth that we read anywhere but people writng that don't know what they're talking about.


I guess the guy who DESIGNED THE WINGS doesn't know what he's talking about:

Airbus executive vice president Tom Williams says that expanding the already huge A380-800 to even larger variants was the plan from the start.

“I lead the team that designed the wings of the A380, and (when she first saw the models) even my good lady wife was quick to point out that the wings are very big in comparison to the fuselage” Williams told Australian Business Traveller in 2011.

“The wings are in fact designed for a much larger airplane, so we have the capability of going to a bigger fuselage – we can stretch the fuselage very easily.”


https://www.ausbt.com.au/airbus-confirm ... 80-stretch

You're giving us some real vintage A380 fanboy delusions here. That's become rare on a.net in recent years, especially rare in recent days. Congrats on your, um, persistence.


Show me in that quote where the executive in question says: "we're sorry, the wing is overbuilt and overweight and thus inefficient. Don't buy this plane.".
Just because a fuselage stretch can be taken doesn't mean that the wing is overweight and overbuilt.
The A389 wing would have needed strengthening to increase the MTOW towards 600 tons, this is common knowledge.

This is the way Airbus builds wings. They start with a conservative MTOW, add strengthening to increase MTOW step by step. This is what they do with each and every model of their family.

What you are saying is that the A321neo LR wing is overbuilt for the A320neo just because Airbus put some margin in it.
Should they be ashamed of the A320neo too?
Perhaps by that logic the A359 and the B789 should be thrown in the garbage too.

Some people around here know what they are talking about but the vast majority is jibberish.


Is QR's CEO talking jibberish as well?

To me, this aircraft is very heavy, has very high fuel consumption, and that’s because the aircraft structure was built for a stretch. I think Airbus made the same mistake they made with the A330 and A340, which had a common wing. The A380’s structure can take another 100 tons. It would have been better if they had tailor-made the wing to suit the size of the airplane. Which means you would have taken so much weight off the wing that you would have been able to make it very fuel-efficient and then it would have been a perfect airplane.


https://www.airlineratings.com/news/qatars-al-baker-a380-failed/
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1450
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:36 am

Matt6461 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
The A380 uses 116inch diameter trents engines with around 80,000lb of thrust. An optimised A380-800 could have used the 112inch diameter trent engines that power the 787. The A380 could have then piggy backed on any PIPs that the 787 engines received.


You're right about the cross section etc. - sounds eerily familiar ;) - but A380 couldn't have used 787's engines because they didn't exist yet. Airbus could have and should have set its engine RFP for lighter, smaller engines to match a better, more efficient design but these wouldn't have been 787 generation had they launched A380 in 2000 (of course they should have waited at least a couple years).

Yes we have both discussed this many times in tech ops threads over the years. We endlessly discussed how the design could be saved but everything was so poorly optimised that no cheap fix existed.

RR would most likely have developed the engines for the A380 first. Then for the 787 they would have proposed PIP'd A380 engines with a bleedless design. It would have been like how the Trent 1000TEN came out 5 years later with an improved core.

Then the improved 787 core would have made it onto the A380 around 5 years after the A380 entered service. The development costs for future PIP's would be shared between the 787 and A380 programs. The A380 would probably be rolling out with Trent 1000TEN technology engines right now and be burning more than 10% less fuel. The A380 production line would be at full rate.

So the poorly optimised design is half the reason why the A380 is ending production. The other half is because of route fragmentation and the reduction of hub to hub routes. The A380 could have survived one of these but not both.

I just did a search of my posts and 12 months ago I wrote "The A380 is doomed." Everything was stacked against it.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 353
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:06 am

JustSomeDood wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Matt6461 wrote:

Not to detract from the good professor but this was the default belief of business folks (outside Airbus) at the time.



I guess the guy who DESIGNED THE WINGS doesn't know what he's talking about:



https://www.ausbt.com.au/airbus-confirm ... 80-stretch

You're giving us some real vintage A380 fanboy delusions here. That's become rare on a.net in recent years, especially rare in recent days. Congrats on your, um, persistence.


Show me in that quote where the executive in question says: "we're sorry, the wing is overbuilt and overweight and thus inefficient. Don't buy this plane.".
Just because a fuselage stretch can be taken doesn't mean that the wing is overweight and overbuilt.
The A389 wing would have needed strengthening to increase the MTOW towards 600 tons, this is common knowledge.

This is the way Airbus builds wings. They start with a conservative MTOW, add strengthening to increase MTOW step by step. This is what they do with each and every model of their family.

What you are saying is that the A321neo LR wing is overbuilt for the A320neo just because Airbus put some margin in it.
Should they be ashamed of the A320neo too?
Perhaps by that logic the A359 and the B789 should be thrown in the garbage too.

Some people around here know what they are talking about but the vast majority is jibberish.


Is QR's CEO talking jibberish as well?

To me, this aircraft is very heavy, has very high fuel consumption, and that’s because the aircraft structure was built for a stretch. I think Airbus made the same mistake they made with the A330 and A340, which had a common wing. The A380’s structure can take another 100 tons. It would have been better if they had tailor-made the wing to suit the size of the airplane. Which means you would have taken so much weight off the wing that you would have been able to make it very fuel-efficient and then it would have been a perfect airplane.


https://www.airlineratings.com/news/qatars-al-baker-a380-failed/


Yes. Does it surprise you at all?
I also predicted that the 20 B787's he promised for Air Italy would never happen. He probably didnt know that himself. With the recent cancellations of yet to be launched long haul routes, it definitely seems headed that way.

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