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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:28 am

I can understand that optimisation at A388 size would with hindsight have been a better approach.

But I am unconvinced about a smaller version. It had to be a step change bigger than any plausible development of the 747, otherwise many airlines would have simply opted for more of the Boeings with which they were very familiar and heavily invested in.
 
WIederling
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:07 am

par13del wrote:
Funny how the Boeing planes - 777W at 9 wide - and 787 at 8 wide - were comfortable but as soon as airlines got a hold of them they crammed 10 and 9 wide in them making them unbearable, guess Boeing has to take the fall for those airlines.


Most decidedly : Yes.
787 in 8 across was never competitive and the 77W needed the move to 10 across to stay meaningful.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:04 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
I can understand that optimisation at A388 size would with hindsight have been a better approach.

But I am unconvinced about a smaller version. It had to be a step change bigger than any plausible development of the 747, otherwise many airlines would have simply opted for more of the Boeings with which they were very familiar and heavily invested in.

The optimised A380-800 wouldn't be smaller in capacity

A fully optimised A380-800 would have the same cabin area and number of seats. It would no doubt be a longer fuselage with a slightly narrower upper deck. Airbus even has public documents and powerpoint slides showing them discuss cross section.

An optimised A380 would be slightly lighter and burn less fuel.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:11 pm

neutronstar73 wrote:
VV wrote:
Some bloggers have always had a consistent opinion on the market for big quads. The have all been bashed by all sorts of people.
They could potentially say, "I told you so.", But they don't say it.


I think you've earned the right to say it. Especially as several VERY ARROGANT AND SMUG A380/Airbus boosters bashed the doubters relentlessly.

And now some of those very same boosters are making up all kinds of excuses and throwing nonsense or selling bad/senseless arguments out there., like how Boeing was "just as bad" by mildly updating the 747. I mean, yeah, the A380 is an impressive aircraft, but just because people had doubts about its viability doesn't detract from the aircraft's unique position in the marketplace.

But any derogatory comment about it is treated as sacrilege. Go figure.


Subjectively, I would say it's been about 2:1 for the (much louder) A380 bashers than the A380 boosters - for all 20 years since the A3XX inception. The idea now relentlessly put forward by VV that the anti-A380 crowd were somehow shouted down is an utter joke.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:14 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Just because a fuselage stretch can be taken doesn't mean that the wing is overweight and overbuilt.
The A389 wing would have needed strengthening to increase the MTOW towards 600 tons, this is common knowledge.


Indeed - I have had to counter this idea that the A380-800 is flying on a much heavier A380-900 wing several times over the years. They are not the same wing, even if they look the same.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:24 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
I can understand that optimisation at A388 size would with hindsight have been a better approach.

But I am unconvinced about a smaller version. It had to be a step change bigger than any plausible development of the 747, otherwise many airlines would have simply opted for more of the Boeings with which they were very familiar and heavily invested in.


This is also true. To make a sufficient efficiency gain at the time over the 747, Airbus *had to* go full-length double-deck at that cross-section, yet could not make the leap to -900 directly as that would scare the airlines away.

No matter all the I-told-you-sos on this board, it made sense at the time - and would have done okay were it not for several big shocks to the plans. It was an ambitious programme that didn't quite make it. It sold a reasonable amount for the class of aircraft in the timeframe it was produced - more than the original break-even, and it put Airbus "on the map" as it were. It didn't lose anywhere near as much as people here keep claiming, and it will still be bringing in ancilliaries for many years to come - so I really still don't see it as a disaster by any means.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:26 pm

WIederling wrote:
Most decidedly : Yes.
787 in 8 across was never competitive and the 77W needed the move to 10 across to stay meaningful.

Meaningful against what, the A346, the 777W was winning that space even before airlines decided to go 10 wide and make even more money, you cannot be saying it is because of the A350 coming to market.
As for the 787, it was a new build and the OEM after discussions with the airlines elected to design the cross section to give them a choice.

Customers are customers, whether they are the pax or the airlines, why should one have a choice and not the other?
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:29 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
This is also true. To make a sufficient efficiency gain at the time over the 747, Airbus *had to* go full-length double-deck at that cross-section, yet could not make the leap to -900 directly as that would scare the airlines away.

Since I mentioned it in another post, what was the rational then for the A346, it was a 777W responder or an improvement over the 747? In terms of size an capability, it was not much greater than the 747 and was touted as another excellent design.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:42 pm

par13del wrote:
Since I mentioned it in another post, what was the rational then for the A346, it was a 777W responder or an improvement over the 747? In terms of size an capability, it was not much greater than the 747 and was touted as another excellent design.


A346 was offered to go for 747-400 ( and earlier ) upgrades.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:42 pm

par13del wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
This is also true. To make a sufficient efficiency gain at the time over the 747, Airbus *had to* go full-length double-deck at that cross-section, yet could not make the leap to -900 directly as that would scare the airlines away.

Since I mentioned it in another post, what was the rational then for the A346, it was a 777W responder or an improvement over the 747? In terms of size an capability, it was not much greater than the 747 and was touted as another excellent design.


From Wikipedia: "The first -300ER was delivered to Air France on April 29, 2004" & "Designed to replace early-generation Boeing 747 airliners [...] Virgin Atlantic began commercial [A346] services in August 2002.

The 777W didn't exist at the time the A340-600 was being developed - so it was supposed to replace 747s and existing 777s, while the A380 would be the next step up.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:50 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
VV wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
The stock market has spoken as well. A jump of around 10 % since the announcement.


Absolutely true, proving again that the program has never been viable and was a liability.


So you think that the stock market are the rationals? Most of the stock market is just reacting to news for short-term trades.
The Airbus stock is not even worth 40 EUR if you go by fundamentals.

GEUltraFan9XGTF, fanboyism is written in your alias, not in mine.
Credit should be given where due and the same for criticism.

mxaxai wrote:
EK's 2-class configuration, the 77W has an OEW of 0.393 tons per passenger, while the A380 clocks in at 0.447 tons per passenger. In QR's case, the 787-8 is at 0.447 tons per passenger while the A380 is at 0.531 tons per passenger. In other words, the A380 could and should be designed at least 10 % more efficient structurally than it is.
In hindsight, they also should've used more CFRP (which made huge advances in cost) and not used GLARE (which turned out to be very expensive).


No, in other words your indicators are irrelevant.
I think that it makes more sense to compare floor space versus OEW.
B777W OEW / Floor area 170tons / 340m² 0,5 tons / m²
A380 OEW / Floor area 280 tons / 580m² 0,48 tons / m²

That A380 operators decide to operate low density configurations on the A380 versus high density configurations on the B77W is their decision, but in no way should it be interpreted as inefficiencies of the design.
Where the B77W and subsequently the B777X will win consistently is freight capacity.
So if you include that, one could say that the B77W has higher payload capabilities per unit of empty weight.

Another relevant indicator is fuel burn per unit of floor space.
Here again, the A380 wins with 21kg/hour per m² versus 22kg/hour per m² of the B77W.
The B77W wins when freight is included.


However, overall quite irrelevant parameters considering the cheap fuel.
Where the A380 can't be beaten today, is the amount of real estate that you get for your monthly lease.
The A350, B77X, B787 promise unbeaten fuel burn per unit of payload, but are uber expensive to purchase/lease. The same could be said of the A321neo.

Basically what airline executives are doing today is paying double digit more money to Airbus and Boeing for models that offer double digit fuel burn reductions.
At a time of cheap fuel, and considering the consequences of the 'bleeding edge of engine technology', the ROI is very questionable.

OPEC are crying their hearts off while Airbus and Boeing are racking up record profits.


Image

Source IATA / Platts

We can pretend that it's the A380's fault as an overbuilt design based on non-technical rumors, but the real thing that is happening is that clueless executives are chairing airlines' boards and are doing the monkey-see, monkey-do thing. Nobody buys A380's, so everybody else isn't buying.
All said executives are good at doing is pretending to be god's gifts to aviation and pretending to run the show.
MOL was a god for a while but in his new strategy he is setting up FR for its downfall. AAB came to Italy promising Air Italy 20 B787's but already cutting routes before starting them, as I predicted.
At the moment, only DL management earns a competent status in my eyes, they're the only ones knowing what they're doing and with co*ones to try something different.
Remember that the industry was prepared to let the Cseries die the same way Airbus is killing the A380 until DL stepped in and now suddenly the A220 is the holy grail that everybody and their mother wants in their fleet.


Its simpler than all this; A380 was just too big and too heavy. Efficiency per square meter means nothing if you dont fill the plane. With the freight calculated in, 777 were more efficient on payload per OEW (as you noted) and more profitable per flight (quoting others on this forum, I dont have a direct source).

Why would an airline want to keep a plane that has no profit advantage and higher risk of loss during off peak?
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:55 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
par13del wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
This is also true. To make a sufficient efficiency gain at the time over the 747, Airbus *had to* go full-length double-deck at that cross-section, yet could not make the leap to -900 directly as that would scare the airlines away.

Since I mentioned it in another post, what was the rational then for the A346, it was a 777W responder or an improvement over the 747? In terms of size an capability, it was not much greater than the 747 and was touted as another excellent design.


From Wikipedia: "The first -300ER was delivered to Air France on April 29, 2004" & "Designed to replace early-generation Boeing 747 airliners [...] Virgin Atlantic began commercial [A346] services in August 2002.

The 777W didn't exist at the time the A340-600 was being developed - so it was supposed to replace 747s and existing 777s, while the A380 would be the next step up.

The A346 was also promised to be much lighter than it's EIS weight. It wasn't until after 777-300ER EIS that the sales disparity started.

The 777-300ER was of concern. I worked a 2nd engine option. The T500 was very conservative and thus not enough fuel burn reduction. The GE-90-115 beat fuel burn promise. Do people forget the concern at EiS that 777-300ER's weren't allowed derated takeoffs? It didn't matter...

This goes to the A380 which also was heavy at EIS. And PIPs. GE and Boeing improved the 777-300ER quickly to help sales. It worked against the A380 and A346. Better than anyone in the industry thought.

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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:04 pm

[*]
B787register wrote:
The A380 is too big too late. Plus airport infrastructure has to be upgraded to accommodate her it wasn't a good move by Airbus.
The other issue is life span of these giants. We have seen two scrapped already and they where only around ten years old


Since there is no used market for it they will all be scraped. It’s residual value is it’s scrap value.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:06 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Just because a fuselage stretch can be taken doesn't mean that the wing is overweight and overbuilt.


Erm, actually it means exactly that!

Read this post again.


Unfortunately, the A380 wing is compromised more than usual by being oversized due to the span restriction.
- aspect ratio
- wetted area
- structural weight (albeit, having a lower span wing makes it more structurally efficient compared to an equivalent aerodynamically optimum, it doesn't in this case make it better - its carrying the same if not more weight in structure than the aerodynamic optimum ).
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:18 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
But I am unconvinced about a smaller version. It had to be a step change bigger than any plausible development of the 747, otherwise many airlines would have simply opted for more of the Boeings with which they were very familiar and heavily invested in.

justloveplanes wrote:
Its simpler than all this; A380 was just too big and too heavy. Efficiency per square meter means nothing if you dont fill the plane. With the freight calculated in, 777 were more efficient on payload per OEW (as you noted) and more profitable per flight (quoting others on this forum, I dont have a direct source).

Why would an airline want to keep a plane that has no profit advantage and higher risk of loss during off peak?

It seems Airbus really had painted itself in to a corner.

A380 had to be bigger than any possible 747 stretch to give itself a unique market position, yet this extremely large plane had to have economics that would still provide profit when the airlines inevitably had to cut fares to fill it.

It's hard to see how Airbus talked themselves into thinking they could do this.

It's easy to see how a smaller plane with equal/better CASM (i.e. 77W) was the A380's death knell.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:20 pm

I remember predicting that the A380 would never sell more than 350-400 copies. I remember doing it right here and I remember being ridiculed and booed off for doing so. People had drunk the Airbus cool aid and believed the A380 would replace the 747 one on one.

They ignored the reason the 747 sold the way it did: It's revolutionary range and payload. Both about twice as much the next biggest aircraft of the day. And that range and payload remained the primary driver for sales up until the twin jets caught up. The A380 was a evolution, not a revolution. It doesn't have a phenomenal leap in payload or range over what else is available. Yes, it has more, but not the same leap as the 747 delivered. It is only good for those that can fill it regularly. And not many can do that. And some airlines that bought it have reported they can't fill them all the time. The industry has been fracturing more and more into point to point services and Airbus' argument for Hub to Hub being dominant just didn't hold water.

For me the writing was on the wall from the beginning of the program. Not that I take any pleasure in it, but I am not in the least bit surprised that the A380 is shutting down before reaching 400 deliveries. I saw it as a niche aircraft with limited appeal and use. And I guess I (and many others) are now proven right.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:23 pm

WIederling wrote:
par13del wrote:
Funny how the Boeing planes - 777W at 9 wide - and 787 at 8 wide - were comfortable but as soon as airlines got a hold of them they crammed 10 and 9 wide in them making them unbearable, guess Boeing has to take the fall for those airlines.


Most decidedly : Yes.
787 in 8 across was never competitive and the 77W needed the move to 10 across to stay meaningful.

Beats having to shut the line down because the plane can't remain competitive.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:55 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
The 777W didn't exist at the time the A340-600 was being developed - so it was supposed to replace 747s and existing 777s, while the A380 would be the next step up.

This I knew, was just trying to get you to see that the rationale you gave in your previous post that the A380 HAD to be a major step up from the 747 in my opinion does not hold water as Airbus already had a product that they had designed to be a 747 competitor. To me, the A380 was step either on its own or greater than the A346, yes a lot of folks talked about the 747 but since Airbus already had their 747 competitor, it made no sense to have two competitors for one product.
Note I am talking about Airbus and their thinking, not the fan boys and detractors who have their own spin.
The A346 matched and in some segments was better than the 747, the A380 was something else, in hindsight, it may have been a step too far.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:06 pm

par13del wrote:
... that the A380 HAD to be a major step up from the 747 in my opinion does not hold water as Airbus already had a product that they had designed to be a 747 competitor. To me, the A380 was step either on its own ...


The A380-800 is the smallest 4 aisles / double deck size that makes space efficient sense.
I see a similar "uncanny valley" between the largest twin aisle and the smallest double deck layout
that exists between narrow bodies and twin aisles.
( the 747 arrangement was not certifiable in 2000 or today ...)
In that respect it is on the low side cliff in its domain.
the marsh on the other side ( twin aisle )is less steep and should reach beyond the [email protected] arrangement.
( cert limit is 3+6+3 = 12 across but increased fuselage diameter required would run into diminishing returns.)

Keesje's Ecoliner concept looked rather sleek but it would have been a real estate
and production nightmare. think about why the super sleek looking Connies died.

Keeping family design metrics in mind the A380 baseline needed to be A380-900 sized.
No way around it.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:33 pm

ELBOB wrote:
PA110 wrote:
At the time of the 747's development in the late 60s, most longhaul flights were multi-stop routes due to 707 and DC8 range limitations.


The 747-100's payload-range curve was almost an exact profile match of the 707-320B, just stretched vertically. San Francisco to Tokyo was possible for both types with respective full pax and cargo.

It wasn't until the 747-200B that the 747 really gained range over the earlier types.


It wasn't just range, the 707 and DC8 were just 6 across tin cans, the 747 was actually extreemly comfortable back then.

I flew a 747 from Chicago to Hawaii in the early 70s, and was forced to fly a DC8 back. The trip back was torture compared to the 747. On top of wide seats, you could actually get up and walk around on a 747 back then, even walk past a cart in the aisle, get a drink in the cocktail lounge, the circular steps..etc. Totally different experience.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:57 pm

A lot of people are missing the point with the talk about wing sizes and fuel efficiency etc. The problem isn't the aircraft.

It's the market. The most important factor in the cancellation is that Airbus is selling the A380 AT A LOSS. Every one they build loses them money. The optimum number for them to build from now on is ZERO - if they could cancel the remaining outstanding orders now, it would be more profitable for them to do so than to build them. Unless they could somehow persuade the market to pay a price for them which makes money on every one made, they will NEVER reach the break-even point.

And the production line cannot be mothballed because the space and workforce is needed to make profitable aircraft.

This is unlike the B747-8I. Even though they're not promoting it now, as long as the 8F is still in production and profitable, Boeing could make an 8I any time they like and make a profit on it. It's now nearly certain that the last B747-8F will be built after the last A380, but it's not impossible that the last 8I will be as well. I would not put money on that not happening - it would be a huge coup for Boeing to replace an A380 that reaches the end of its life or is written off (though we all hope to never see that) with a 747. Engine commonality with the B787 means that won't be a limiting factor either.

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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:26 pm

I remember when my dad traveled to SE Asia before and after the 747. 2 days vs something like 5 days to Indonesia.

Aviation needs another step change improvement.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:29 pm

6 across seating at a 35 inch pitch was a highly comfortable arrangement. Those of us who travel Y remember it as the golden days of flying (also took a lot of gold to buy a ticket LOL). I suspect modern seats could offer the same comfort at 33 inch pitch. Today traveling Y for a vacation is often the ordeal you endure in order to have a great time. In the 60s and 70s it was first and last part of the great vacation. I always saved two or three of my favorite magazines for the flights.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:50 pm

From Crankyflyer on where to find an A380 to fly on.-

• Air France (10) – It may have 10 today, but Air France expects to be rid of half of those by the end of the year. This year it flies from Paris to JFK, Miami, Washington/Dulles, Atlanta, and Los Angeles, but I assume that will have to shrink as the fleet is halved.
• ANA (3) – The newest operator of the A380 is dedicating these to the Tokyo – Honolulu route, so you’ll see them there for some time.
• Asiana (6) – You’ll find Asiana’s A380s in Los Angeles, usually twice a day.
• British Airways (12) – In the US, BA flies to LA, San Francisco, Miami, Boston, and soon Chicago with this airplane.
• China Southern (5) – These are flying to Los Angeles.
• Emirates (123) – You’ll find these pretty much everywhere. Try Los Angeles, San Francisco, JFK, Dulles, and Houston for now.
• Etihad (10) – Within the US, it’s just JFK that gets these airplanes.
• Hi Fly (1) – This is a charter aircraft, so there’s no way of knowing where it’ll end up on any given day.
• Korean (10) – Korean continues to fly double daily flights from Los Angeles. JFK sees it as well, but I believe that’s it in the US.
• Lufthansa (14) – You can find them flying from Los Angeles, Houston, and Miami to Frankfurt as well as Los Angeles and San Francisco to Munich.
• Malaysia (6) – You won’t see these or any other Malaysia airplanes in the US.
• Qantas (12) – As of now you’ll see these only in Los Angeles and Dallas/Fort Worth.
• Qatar (10) – Qatar does not fly these airplanes to the US.
• Singapore (19) – Singapore may have expanded recently in the US, but the only place getting the A380 today is New York/JFK.
• Thai (6) – As with Malaysia, you won’t see these or any Thai airplanes in the US.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:36 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
I remember when my dad traveled to SE Asia before and after the 747. 2 days vs something like 5 days to Indonesia.

Aviation needs another step change improvement.

That is happening with new hubs and Fragmentation.
ADD and IST are now two new(ish) hubs to Africa.

Mumbai and Delhi are building new airports.
All the expanded Chinese airports.

SIN, CGK, and KLIA have all expanded significantly over the last 15 years.

Bridge hubbing was still common for most of the 747 sales life. The A380 was the trunk route replacement. However, the 77W, 787, and now A350 allow fewer stops.

With the 747, one stopped from the Americas in Europe on the way to India or NRT/HKG. Now there is a more convenient hub or direct flights (very little ulh today, the same cities are always discussed.

My friends traveling to Africa or Asia make, on average, one fewer connection than at A380 launch.

With so much connecting competition, in particular in China, the EK model of making great profits off connections isn't what it was.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:50 pm

ELBOB wrote:
PA110 wrote:
At the time of the 747's development in the late 60s, most longhaul flights were multi-stop routes due to 707 and DC8 range limitations.


The 747-100's payload-range curve was almost an exact profile match of the 707-320B, just stretched vertically. San Francisco to Tokyo was possible for both types with respective full pax and cargo.


The 747 gained a bit from scaling advantages but also must have shown significant advantage
from using (the first) high bypass turbo fans. JT9D : 0.6lb/(lbf*h) vs 0.78 lb/(lbf⋅h) on the JT3D
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:56 pm

It was a sound business decision to cancel the project, but it's a sad thing for unabashed aircraft enthusiasts. We can (and most assuredly will) debate whether Airbus saw a real business case for 700+ units or whether it was mostly hubris on their part until the end of time. For those of us who don't cheer for one OEM or another as if they were our favorite sports team instead of some huge, faceless corporation, we just can just accept that it was launched, it is in service and it is a magnificent sight to behold when one is spotting at whatever airport has A-380 service. Unfortunately for me, I have to travel quite some way to get to one of those airports, but seeing this beast on final approach makes the trip worth it. And yes, I will acknowledge that she's not the most attractive girl at the dance when on the ground :smile:
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:13 pm

I have to say, there is nothing quite like sitting at the end of Dulles 1-Right on the road to the SUH-National Air and Space Museum and looking over the trees to see an A380 or 748 approach for landing. Most impressive and apparently will begin to dwindle in the future.
 
Vladex
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:32 pm

PaxPicti wrote:
A lot of people are missing the point with the talk about wing sizes and fuel efficiency etc. The problem isn't the aircraft.

It's the market. The most important factor in the cancellation is that Airbus is selling the A380 AT A LOSS. Every one they build loses them money. The optimum number for them to build from now on is ZERO - if they could cancel the remaining outstanding orders now, it would be more profitable for them to do so than to build them. Unless they could somehow persuade the market to pay a price for them which makes money on every one made, they will NEVER reach the break-even point.

And the production line cannot be mothballed because the space and workforce is needed to make profitable aircraft.

This is unlike the B747-8I. Even though they're not promoting it now, as long as the 8F is still in production and profitable, Boeing could make an 8I any time they like and make a profit on it. It's now nearly certain that the last B747-8F will be built after the last A380, but it's not impossible that the last 8I will be as well. I would not put money on that not happening - it would be a huge coup for Boeing to replace an A380 that reaches the end of its life or is written off (though we all hope to never see that) with a 747. Engine commonality with the B787 means that won't be a limiting factor either.

This is my first post here so you can all laugh at me now!


If they were selling them at a loss, wouldn't they sell them to a lot of different airlines?
For example , 737 and 787 are rolling out way above normal because they are mostly sold at a loss.
Boeing makes all of their outdated and flawed airplanes at a loss especially 747 and then recoups through government and military subsidies.
If it were up to me , I would definitely buy an airplane at their loss and try to make a something out of it.
Besides that it's unrealistic and very dumb to think that every model will make money always seeing that models take so long to develop and so long to order and deliver.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:59 pm

PaxPicti wrote:
This is unlike the B747-8I. Even though they're not promoting it now, as long as the 8F is still in production and profitable, Boeing could make an 8I any time they like and make a profit on it.


The supplier infrastructure that makes the parts for the Intercontinental has likely either closed up or is in the process of closing considering Boeing last delivered one (a VIP) over a year ago, delivered the last to an airline some 18 months ago (Korean Air) and has not secured an order for one from an airline in over five years and from a VIP customer in two.
 
bigjku
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:03 pm

Vladex wrote:
PaxPicti wrote:
A lot of people are missing the point with the talk about wing sizes and fuel efficiency etc. The problem isn't the aircraft.

It's the market. The most important factor in the cancellation is that Airbus is selling the A380 AT A LOSS. Every one they build loses them money. The optimum number for them to build from now on is ZERO - if they could cancel the remaining outstanding orders now, it would be more profitable for them to do so than to build them. Unless they could somehow persuade the market to pay a price for them which makes money on every one made, they will NEVER reach the break-even point.

And the production line cannot be mothballed because the space and workforce is needed to make profitable aircraft.

This is unlike the B747-8I. Even though they're not promoting it now, as long as the 8F is still in production and profitable, Boeing could make an 8I any time they like and make a profit on it. It's now nearly certain that the last B747-8F will be built after the last A380, but it's not impossible that the last 8I will be as well. I would not put money on that not happening - it would be a huge coup for Boeing to replace an A380 that reaches the end of its life or is written off (though we all hope to never see that) with a 747. Engine commonality with the B787 means that won't be a limiting factor either.

This is my first post here so you can all laugh at me now!


If they were selling them at a loss, wouldn't they sell them to a lot of different airlines?
For example , 737 and 787 are rolling out way above normal because they are mostly sold at a loss.
Boeing makes all of their outdated and flawed airplanes at a loss especially 747 and then recoups through government and military subsidies.

If it were up to me , I would definitely buy an airplane at their loss and try to make a something out of it.
Besides that it's unrealistic and very dumb to think that every model will make money always seeing that models take so long to develop and so long to order and deliver.


Oh you are just adorable. Bravo for sorting out the truth brave warrior.
 
PaxPicti
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:46 pm

Stitch wrote:
The supplier infrastructure that makes the parts for the Intercontinental has likely either closed up or is in the process of closing considering Boeing last delivered one (a VIP) over a year ago, delivered the last to an airline some 18 months ago (Korean Air) and has not secured an order for one from an airline in over five years and from a VIP customer in two.

They started building the final 747-SP five years after the previous one was delivered. Standard pax 747s were still in production, but the SP was more different from those than the 8I is from the 8F.

The question would be, what parts needed for the 747-8I are NOT used for either the 747-8F or any other aircraft Boeing currently makes, and would any of those be too costly to make or order again for a one-off or a very short run?

Not saying it will happen, just that it's probably not impossible from an economic point of view. Whereas restarting A380 production will be, because it doesn't share any major parts with any other Airbus product.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:46 pm

Vladex wrote:
PaxPicti wrote:
A lot of people are missing the point with the talk about wing sizes and fuel efficiency etc. The problem isn't the aircraft.

It's the market. The most important factor in the cancellation is that Airbus is selling the A380 AT A LOSS. Every one they build loses them money. The optimum number for them to build from now on is ZERO - if they could cancel the remaining outstanding orders now, it would be more profitable for them to do so than to build them. Unless they could somehow persuade the market to pay a price for them which makes money on every one made, they will NEVER reach the break-even point.

And the production line cannot be mothballed because the space and workforce is needed to make profitable aircraft.

This is unlike the B747-8I. Even though they're not promoting it now, as long as the 8F is still in production and profitable, Boeing could make an 8I any time they like and make a profit on it. It's now nearly certain that the last B747-8F will be built after the last A380, but it's not impossible that the last 8I will be as well. I would not put money on that not happening - it would be a huge coup for Boeing to replace an A380 that reaches the end of its life or is written off (though we all hope to never see that) with a 747. Engine commonality with the B787 means that won't be a limiting factor either.

This is my first post here so you can all laugh at me now!


If they were selling them at a loss, wouldn't they sell them to a lot of different airlines?
For example , 737 and 787 are rolling out way above normal because they are mostly sold at a loss.
Boeing makes all of their outdated and flawed airplanes at a loss especially 747 and then recoups through government and military subsidies.
If it were up to me , I would definitely buy an airplane at their loss and try to make a something out of it.
Besides that it's unrealistic and very dumb to think that every model will make money always seeing that models take so long to develop and so long to order and deliver.

If an airliner is selling at a loss does not automatically make it a good buy. It still will not sell if the customer does not think it will make money with it, or can make more money with something else. And what is your authority for saying that 737s and 787s are selling at a loss?
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:56 pm

PaxPicti wrote:
A lot of people are missing the point with the talk about wing sizes and fuel efficiency etc. The problem isn't the aircraft.

It's the market. The most important factor in the cancellation is that Airbus is selling the A380 AT A LOSS. Every one they build loses them money. The optimum number for them to build from now on is ZERO - if they could cancel the remaining outstanding orders now, it would be more profitable for them to do so than to build them. Unless they could somehow persuade the market to pay a price for them which makes money on every one made, they will NEVER reach the break-even point.

And the production line cannot be mothballed because the space and workforce is needed to make profitable aircraft.

This is unlike the B747-8I. Even though they're not promoting it now, as long as the 8F is still in production and profitable, Boeing could make an 8I any time they like and make a profit on it. It's now nearly certain that the last B747-8F will be built after the last A380, but it's not impossible that the last 8I will be as well. I would not put money on that not happening - it would be a huge coup for Boeing to replace an A380 that reaches the end of its life or is written off (though we all hope to never see that) with a 747. Engine commonality with the B787 means that won't be a limiting factor either.

This is my first post here so you can all laugh at me now!



You are correct. It was not the aircraft, but the market.
But imo it was not a rational decision of the market.

There are reasons to accuse the A380 of being too big. But then again, when you see joint ventures flying aircraft 30 minutes apart where the seating is crammed but the flights are both half full, what is rational about that?

The reality is that airline CEO's are only concerned by keeping their jobs rather to innovate their airline, grow it, increase profitability. As long as their airline maintains the status quo, the bonus checks will clear.
The problem with this is that the industry is exposing itself to vulnerability.

For instance, let's imagine that a severe downturn hits. With a hub to hub and hub to spoke model, you are much less exposed than with a hub to point model. Hub to point is highly reliant on high yield premium traffic, the first ones to disappear in a downturn.
Parking an A380 costs as much as parking a B77W, so when you're flying it, you make more money, when you park it, you lose the same amount of money.

Another example of issues is that the market is becoming fragmented. Smaller equipment, more airlines competing, lower yields and more risk.
If airlines operated A380's, they could dominate markets and would have less to fear from competitors. With a B787 competing against 10 airlines, even losing 10 pax to competition can swing the balance from green to red.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:05 pm

I think that the mistake that many here and the Airbus board are making, is thinking that things don't change over time.

Follow me in this scenario: imagine that within 10 years, a new energy source or revolutionary powerplant is discovered or invented that would reduce aircraft energy/fuel costs by 80% compared to now.
This means that flying will become a lot cheaper, increasing demand significantly.

In that scenario, isn't everyone going to want as big an aircraft as possible?
Boeing will have the B748 and B777X to use as platform. What will Airbus have?

Freight-wise, Boeing will also be very well positioned to take advantage of new technology.

Imagine an A380 with the fuel cost of an A320 of today. Not being ready for innovation is a major mistake.
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:21 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
You are correct. It was not the aircraft, but the market.
But imo it was not a rational decision of the market.

There are reasons to accuse the A380 of being too big. But then again, when you see joint ventures flying aircraft 30 minutes apart where the seating is crammed but the flights are both half full, what is rational about that


This is an excellent straw man argument. Tell me, what’s rational about flying a six hundred seater that burns more fuel than a 400 seater with greater payload? Also, what’s rational about intentionally flying fewer frequencies when your customers want more frequencies?

The reality is that airline CEO's are only concerned by keeping their jobs rather to innovate their airline, grow it, increase profitability. As long as their airline maintains the status quo, the bonus checks will clear.
The problem with this is that the industry is exposing itself to vulnerability.

Of course profitability is their chief concern. Flying an expensive to operate airplane is not a good path to profitability.

For instance, let's imagine that a severe downturn hits. With a hub to hub and hub to spoke model, you are much less exposed than with a hub to point model. Hub to point is highly reliant on high yield premium traffic, the first ones to disappear in a downturn.
Parking an A380 costs as much as parking a B77W, so when you're flying it, you make more money, when you park it, you lose the same amount of money.

This is a non sequitur. Parking at gate costs are not related to flying profitability. The math is simple:
revenue generated - cost incurred = profitability of flight.
Everything in this thread points to the A380 cost per flight being too high compared to the revenue generated. If that wasn’t true, everyone would be buying it. The margin isn’t good enough.

Another example of issues is that the market is becoming fragmented. Smaller equipment, more airlines competing, lower yields and more risk.
If airlines operated A380's, they could dominate markets and would have less to fear from competitors. With a B787 competing against 10 airlines, even losing 10 pax to competition can swing the balance from green to red.

Ah everyone loves a monopoly. That’s why cable companies get such high customer satisfaction ratings. Also, operating fewer A380 per day compared to more whatever else per day could result in fewer total passengers because some will decide to not fly based on fewer schedule options, or will book an airline with a smaller plane with a favorable departure time.

If Air France dropped a daily A380 on MSP-CDG they wouldn’t suddenly “dominate” MSP transatlantic flight. They would probably struggle to fill it with many people opting for flights departing and arriving at different times of day through Amsterdam or Heathrow on smaller equipment.
 
Sahaji39
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:24 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Follow me in this scenario: imagine that within 10 years, a new energy source or revolutionary powerplant is discovered or invented that would reduce aircraft energy/fuel costs by 80% compared to now.
This means that flying will become a lot cheaper, increasing demand significantly.

In that scenario, isn't everyone going to want as big an aircraft as possible?
Boeing will have the B748 and B777X to use as platform. What will Airbus have?


In the scenario you mention, while there could be some technological development, why would that lead to the return of quad-jets? Capacity is not the only issue at play here (although it is a major one), it's also the fact that twin-jets are able to do everything that the quad-jets were able to do at a more efficient level and be more profitable for airlines. Boeing have figured this out. They doesn't use the B748 for passenger transport anymore but rather focus on using the B777 and B787, and that's why they're going ahead with the B777.

Secondly, in response Airbus have the A350 variants (with the largest variant to date, the -1000 carrying up to 400+ passengers) for future high capacity routes, so they could afford to cancel the A380 and direct those resources to a project that would be more profitable for the company.

Even if high capacity routes do come back, why would airlines switch back to quad-jets like the B747 and the A380 away from the B777, B787, A330 and A350 when these twin-jets were able to do everything either of those quads could do at a more efficient rate? The only quad-jets come back is if something catastrophic like a dual-engine failure happens on an ETOPS aircraft and even then, since engine technology has developed at such an impressive rate, that's incredibly unlikely.
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:26 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I think that the mistake that many here and the Airbus board are making, is thinking that things don't change over time.

Follow me in this scenario: imagine that within 10 years, a new energy source or revolutionary powerplant is discovered or invented that would reduce aircraft energy/fuel costs by 80% compared to now.
This means that flying will become a lot cheaper, increasing demand significantly.

In that scenario, isn't everyone going to want as big an aircraft as possible?
Boeing will have the B748 and B777X to use as platform. What will Airbus have?

Freight-wise, Boeing will also be very well positioned to take advantage of new technology.

Imagine an A380 with the fuel cost of an A320 of today. Not being ready for innovation is a major mistake.

If technology made the A380 burn the same amount of fuel as A320, then that same technology would make smaller wide bodies burn the same fuel as an A220 or a small regional jet and the A380 would still cost too much to operate relative to the smaller twins.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:28 pm

WIederling wrote:
par13del wrote:
... that the A380 HAD to be a major step up from the 747 in my opinion does not hold water as Airbus already had a product that they had designed to be a 747 competitor. To me, the A380 was step either on its own ...


The A380-800 is the smallest 4 aisles / double deck size that makes space efficient sense.
I see a similar "uncanny valley" between the largest twin aisle and the smallest double deck layout
that exists between narrow bodies and twin aisles.
( the 747 arrangement was not certifiable in 2000 or today ...)
In that respect it is on the low side cliff in its domain.
the marsh on the other side ( twin aisle )is less steep and should reach beyond the [email protected] arrangement.
( cert limit is 3+6+3 = 12 across but increased fuselage diameter required would run into diminishing returns.)

Keesje's Ecoliner concept looked rather sleek but it would have been a real estate
and production nightmare. think about why the super sleek looking Connies died.

Keeping family design metrics in mind the A380 baseline needed to be A380-900 sized.
No way around it.

In your opinion, how were these "family design metrics" chosen?
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:49 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I think that the mistake that many here and the Airbus board are making, is thinking that things don't change over time.

Follow me in this scenario: imagine that within 10 years, a new energy source or revolutionary powerplant is discovered or invented that would reduce aircraft energy/fuel costs by 80% compared to now.
This means that flying will become a lot cheaper, increasing demand significantly.

The powerplants that will be used in 10 years' time are already being developed. They're not an unknown quantity when it comes to analysing whether or not they'd help the A380.
As for the new energy source: There is of course the chance that we'll discover magic unicorns.

Back in the real world, air traffic (measured in RPKs) has already been doubling every 15 years since the mid-80s, and all forecasts say it's going to keep increasing.
Just for perspective: World air traffic was at ~4 trillion RPK in 2000, when the A380 was launched. It's now at just shy of 9 trillion, with historically low air fares. And still the A380 isn't selling.
You might even say because of this, the A380 is not selling, as most growth was seen in the A320/737 segment, driven by the likes of Indigo, Spicejet, Lion Air, Ryanair, Easyjet, JetBlue, etc.

If anything, prices will be going up from this point onwards. For various reasons. Airlines going bust and bigger players capitalising (see air fares in Germany since AB ceased operations), fuel prices going up, labour becoming more expensive (see the increasing pressure especially Ryanair is getting under at that front), etc.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
In that scenario, isn't everyone going to want as big an aircraft as possible?

See above: Quite evidently not.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Imagine an A380 with the fuel cost of an A320 of today.

Except that the relative fuel cost difference between a magic unicorn-powered A380 and a magic unicorn-powered A320 would remain the same as it is today. As would the up-front capital cost.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Not being ready for innovation is a major mistake.

Assuming magic unicorns are going to save your product if you just hold on long enough is a major mistake.
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ER757
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:56 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I think that the mistake that many here and the Airbus board are making, is thinking that things don't change over time.

Follow me in this scenario: imagine that within 10 years, a new energy source or revolutionary powerplant is discovered or invented that would reduce aircraft energy/fuel costs by 80% compared to now.
This means that flying will become a lot cheaper, increasing demand significantly.

In that scenario, isn't everyone going to want as big an aircraft as possible?
Boeing will have the B748 and B777X to use as platform. What will Airbus have?

Freight-wise, Boeing will also be very well positioned to take advantage of new technology.

Imagine an A380 with the fuel cost of an A320 of today. Not being ready for innovation is a major mistake.

The cost to keep the A380 line open and suppliers on board for that 10 years is cost prohibitive to say the very least. And if some new energy source is what drives the change, certainly the A380 in its current form would need to be re-vamped at the very least. More than likely a clean sheet design would be needed. And smaller aircraft would be proportionally cheaper to operate than whatever the 380 would be called so you are in the same scenario as you are now.
 
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Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Tue Feb 19, 2019 10:04 pm

douwd20 wrote:
[*]
B787register wrote:
The A380 is too big too late. Plus airport infrastructure has to be upgraded to accommodate her it wasn't a good move by Airbus.
The other issue is life span of these giants. We have seen two scrapped already and they where only around ten years old


Since there is no used market for it they will all be scraped. It’s residual value is it’s scrap value.


Those are early builds that were overweight and had the electrical harness retrofitted after the design screw up. It will be more interesting to see what happens to the later builds that had the bugs ironed out. Any airline that wants additional A380's will have to get them from the secondhand market.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 10:13 pm

anfromme wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I think that the mistake that many here and the Airbus board are making, is thinking that things don't change over time.

Follow me in this scenario: imagine that within 10 years, a new energy source or revolutionary powerplant is discovered or invented that would reduce aircraft energy/fuel costs by 80% compared to now.
This means that flying will become a lot cheaper, increasing demand significantly.

The powerplants that will be used in 10 years' time are already being developed. They're not an unknown quantity when it comes to analysing whether or not they'd help the A380.
As for the new energy source: There is of course the chance that we'll discover magic unicorns.

Back in the real world, air traffic (measured in RPKs) has already been doubling every 15 years since the mid-80s, and all forecasts say it's going to keep increasing.
Just for perspective: World air traffic was at ~4 trillion RPK in 2000, when the A380 was launched. It's now at just shy of 9 trillion, with historically low air fares. And still the A380 isn't selling.
You might even say because of this, the A380 is not selling, as most growth was seen in the A320/737 segment, driven by the likes of Indigo, Spicejet, Lion Air, Ryanair, Easyjet, JetBlue, etc.

If anything, prices will be going up from this point onwards. For various reasons. Airlines going bust and bigger players capitalising (see air fares in Germany since AB ceased operations), fuel prices going up, labour becoming more expensive (see the increasing pressure especially Ryanair is getting under at that front), etc.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
In that scenario, isn't everyone going to want as big an aircraft as possible?

See above: Quite evidently not.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Imagine an A380 with the fuel cost of an A320 of today.

Except that the relative fuel cost difference between a magic unicorn-powered A380 and a magic unicorn-powered A320 would remain the same as it is today. As would the up-front capital cost.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Not being ready for innovation is a major mistake.

Assuming magic unicorns are going to save your product if you just hold on long enough is a major mistake.

Remember, the failure if the segway was that cities were not designed around them. According to segway.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Vladex
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 10:14 pm

SEPilot wrote:
Vladex wrote:
PaxPicti wrote:
A lot of people are missing the point with the talk about wing sizes and fuel efficiency etc. The problem isn't the aircraft.

It's the market. The most important factor in the cancellation is that Airbus is selling the A380 AT A LOSS. Every one they build loses them money. The optimum number for them to build from now on is ZERO - if they could cancel the remaining outstanding orders now, it would be more profitable for them to do so than to build them. Unless they could somehow persuade the market to pay a price for them which makes money on every one made, they will NEVER reach the break-even point.

And the production line cannot be mothballed because the space and workforce is needed to make profitable aircraft.

This is unlike the B747-8I. Even though they're not promoting it now, as long as the 8F is still in production and profitable, Boeing could make an 8I any time they like and make a profit on it. It's now nearly certain that the last B747-8F will be built after the last A380, but it's not impossible that the last 8I will be as well. I would not put money on that not happening - it would be a huge coup for Boeing to replace an A380 that reaches the end of its life or is written off (though we all hope to never see that) with a 747. Engine commonality with the B787 means that won't be a limiting factor either.

This is my first post here so you can all laugh at me now!


If they were selling them at a loss, wouldn't they sell them to a lot of different airlines?
For example , 737 and 787 are rolling out way above normal because they are mostly sold at a loss.
Boeing makes all of their outdated and flawed airplanes at a loss especially 747 and then recoups through government and military subsidies.
If it were up to me , I would definitely buy an airplane at their loss and try to make a something out of it.
Besides that it's unrealistic and very dumb to think that every model will make money always seeing that models take so long to develop and so long to order and deliver.

If an airliner is selling at a loss does not automatically make it a good buy. It still will not sell if the customer does not think it will make money with it, or can make more money with something else. And what is your authority for saying that 737s and 787s are selling at a loss?


Because they are producing over the top and statements from RyanAir , Air Canada, Norwegian and others, not to mention dodgy cancellations and sales to Hawaiian and,American. Not everything is on loss but that's why they are over producing.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 10:34 pm

Vladex wrote:
Not everything is on loss but that's why they are over producing.


I smell something amiss under the proverbial stone bridge.

Who is saying they are over producing 737's and 787? Or A320 and A350 for that matter. The back logs are in years and Boeing and Airbus is looking to increase production rate to meet customer demand.

Remind me the famous cliché "sure we are losing money on every car we sell, but we make it up with volume" :rotfl:

bt
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bigjku
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:56 pm

Vladex wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
Vladex wrote:

If they were selling them at a loss, wouldn't they sell them to a lot of different airlines?
For example , 737 and 787 are rolling out way above normal because they are mostly sold at a loss.
Boeing makes all of their outdated and flawed airplanes at a loss especially 747 and then recoups through government and military subsidies.
If it were up to me , I would definitely buy an airplane at their loss and try to make a something out of it.
Besides that it's unrealistic and very dumb to think that every model will make money always seeing that models take so long to develop and so long to order and deliver.

If an airliner is selling at a loss does not automatically make it a good buy. It still will not sell if the customer does not think it will make money with it, or can make more money with something else. And what is your authority for saying that 737s and 787s are selling at a loss?


Because they are producing over the top and statements from RyanAir , Air Canada, Norwegian and others, not to mention dodgy cancellations and sales to Hawaiian and,American. Not everything is on loss but that's why they are over producing.


I love the confidence to double down on this one. Damn the evidence! I know the truth and you all can’t handle the truth. Full speed ahead!
 
nitrohelper
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Joined: Tue Mar 08, 2005 5:32 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:43 am

I guess the Boeing folks could say that Airbus has finally harpooned the Whalejet... :duck: :white:
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 379
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:43 am

anfromme wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I think that the mistake that many here and the Airbus board are making, is thinking that things don't change over time.

Follow me in this scenario: imagine that within 10 years, a new energy source or revolutionary powerplant is discovered or invented that would reduce aircraft energy/fuel costs by 80% compared to now.
This means that flying will become a lot cheaper, increasing demand significantly.

The powerplants that will be used in 10 years' time are already being developed. They're not an unknown quantity when it comes to analysing whether or not they'd help the A380.
As for the new energy source: There is of course the chance that we'll discover magic unicorns.

Back in the real world, air traffic (measured in RPKs) has already been doubling every 15 years since the mid-80s, and all forecasts say it's going to keep increasing.
Just for perspective: World air traffic was at ~4 trillion RPK in 2000, when the A380 was launched. It's now at just shy of 9 trillion, with historically low air fares. And still the A380 isn't selling.
You might even say because of this, the A380 is not selling, as most growth was seen in the A320/737 segment, driven by the likes of Indigo, Spicejet, Lion Air, Ryanair, Easyjet, JetBlue, etc.

If anything, prices will be going up from this point onwards. For various reasons. Airlines going bust and bigger players capitalising (see air fares in Germany since AB ceased operations), fuel prices going up, labour becoming more expensive (see the increasing pressure especially Ryanair is getting under at that front), etc.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
In that scenario, isn't everyone going to want as big an aircraft as possible?

See above: Quite evidently not.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Imagine an A380 with the fuel cost of an A320 of today.

Except that the relative fuel cost difference between a magic unicorn-powered A380 and a magic unicorn-powered A320 would remain the same as it is today. As would the up-front capital cost.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Not being ready for innovation is a major mistake.

Assuming magic unicorns are going to save your product if you just hold on long enough is a major mistake.


I don't think that anybody knows what comes next.
Sure, RR, GE, PW are working on the next engines with their teams, based on what they have now. What they have now is not that superb. It looks superb to you perhaps, but so did the horses and chariots to the Romans. I worked on jet engines and found notging fascinating about them, it's a very simple machine.
In addition, they are not the only ones doing research in powerplants and energy, far from it.
If there is another breakthrough, the engine manufacturers will have no choice but to dump their own research and accept the new technology or see themselves get left behind. In fact, it's not even sure thay they would be included at all if the technology is very different.
15 years ago evedybody was weilding around Nokia 3310's like that was the thing to have, today you can park your car with your smartphone and Nokia has become irrelevant because it didn't follow the smartphone drift.

The A380 offers a unique platform to try out any kind of new technology. Somebody above said that it would still have 4 jet engines and be inefficient.
Who says that the next breakthrough will be a jet engine or any form of combustion engine at all?

If for exampe tomorrow someone figures out a way to store electricity in a high density way, next week the jet engine era is done. Good luck if you're a jet engine salesman then. That's how fast it can happen.

But an airframe is an airframe and there is only so much you can change even with a new powerplant or form of energy. So any new form of powerplant/energy would most probably be installed in an existing design in a first instance.

Airbus has self-determined that nothing huge will come out anytime soon, Boeing is keeping all its options open, good for them.

If a new technology would allow to fly transatlantic for say 100 bucks return, the demand will be so huge that it can only be met by larger aircraft. Smaller aircraft like the B787 would become irrelevant and unnecessarily take up space in the air and on the ground.
 
Boof02671
Posts: 1626
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:15 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:53 am

Vladex wrote:
PaxPicti wrote:
A lot of people are missing the point with the talk about wing sizes and fuel efficiency etc. The problem isn't the aircraft.

It's the market. The most important factor in the cancellation is that Airbus is selling the A380 AT A LOSS. Every one they build loses them money. The optimum number for them to build from now on is ZERO - if they could cancel the remaining outstanding orders now, it would be more profitable for them to do so than to build them. Unless they could somehow persuade the market to pay a price for them which makes money on every one made, they will NEVER reach the break-even point.

And the production line cannot be mothballed because the space and workforce is needed to make profitable aircraft.

This is unlike the B747-8I. Even though they're not promoting it now, as long as the 8F is still in production and profitable, Boeing could make an 8I any time they like and make a profit on it. It's now nearly certain that the last B747-8F will be built after the last A380, but it's not impossible that the last 8I will be as well. I would not put money on that not happening - it would be a huge coup for Boeing to replace an A380 that reaches the end of its life or is written off (though we all hope to never see that) with a 747. Engine commonality with the B787 means that won't be a limiting factor either.

This is my first post here so you can all laugh at me now!


If they were selling them at a loss, wouldn't they sell them to a lot of different airlines?
For example , 737 and 787 are rolling out way above normal because they are mostly sold at a loss.
Boeing makes all of their outdated and flawed airplanes at a loss especially 747 and then recoups through government and military subsidies.
If it were up to me , I would definitely buy an airplane at their loss and try to make a something out of it.
Besides that it's unrealistic and very dumb to think that every model will make money always seeing that models take so long to develop and so long to order and deliver.

They are not selling at a loss. Boeing is making big bucks.
 
DarkKnight5
Posts: 188
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2016 3:36 pm

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:24 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
anfromme wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I think that the mistake that many here and the Airbus board are making, is thinking that things don't change over time.

Follow me in this scenario: imagine that within 10 years, a new energy source or revolutionary powerplant is discovered or invented that would reduce aircraft energy/fuel costs by 80% compared to now.
This means that flying will become a lot cheaper, increasing demand significantly.

The powerplants that will be used in 10 years' time are already being developed. They're not an unknown quantity when it comes to analysing whether or not they'd help the A380.
As for the new energy source: There is of course the chance that we'll discover magic unicorns.

Back in the real world, air traffic (measured in RPKs) has already been doubling every 15 years since the mid-80s, and all forecasts say it's going to keep increasing.
Just for perspective: World air traffic was at ~4 trillion RPK in 2000, when the A380 was launched. It's now at just shy of 9 trillion, with historically low air fares. And still the A380 isn't selling.
You might even say because of this, the A380 is not selling, as most growth was seen in the A320/737 segment, driven by the likes of Indigo, Spicejet, Lion Air, Ryanair, Easyjet, JetBlue, etc.

If anything, prices will be going up from this point onwards. For various reasons. Airlines going bust and bigger players capitalising (see air fares in Germany since AB ceased operations), fuel prices going up, labour becoming more expensive (see the increasing pressure especially Ryanair is getting under at that front), etc.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
In that scenario, isn't everyone going to want as big an aircraft as possible?

See above: Quite evidently not.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Imagine an A380 with the fuel cost of an A320 of today.

Except that the relative fuel cost difference between a magic unicorn-powered A380 and a magic unicorn-powered A320 would remain the same as it is today. As would the up-front capital cost.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Not being ready for innovation is a major mistake.

Assuming magic unicorns are going to save your product if you just hold on long enough is a major mistake.


I don't think that anybody knows what comes next.
Sure, RR, GE, PW are working on the next engines with their teams, based on what they have now. What they have now is not that superb. It looks superb to you perhaps, but so did the horses and chariots to the Romans. I worked on jet engines and found notging fascinating about them, it's a very simple machine.
In addition, they are not the only ones doing research in powerplants and energy, far from it.
If there is another breakthrough, the engine manufacturers will have no choice but to dump their own research and accept the new technology or see themselves get left behind. In fact, it's not even sure thay they would be included at all if the technology is very different.
15 years ago evedybody was weilding around Nokia 3310's like that was the thing to have, today you can park your car with your smartphone and Nokia has become irrelevant because it didn't follow the smartphone drift.

The A380 offers a unique platform to try out any kind of new technology. Somebody above said that it would still have 4 jet engines and be inefficient.
Who says that the next breakthrough will be a jet engine or any form of combustion engine at all?

If for exampe tomorrow someone figures out a way to store electricity in a high density way, next week the jet engine era is done. Good luck if you're a jet engine salesman then. That's how fast it can happen.

But an airframe is an airframe and there is only so much you can change even with a new powerplant or form of energy. So any new form of powerplant/energy would most probably be installed in an existing design in a first instance.

Airbus has self-determined that nothing huge will come out anytime soon, Boeing is keeping all its options open, good for them.

If a new technology would allow to fly transatlantic for say 100 bucks return, the demand will be so huge that it can only be met by larger aircraft. Smaller aircraft like the B787 would become irrelevant and unnecessarily take up space in the air and on the ground.

You said that if a new engine came along and allowed the A380 frame to burn fuel at the A320 rate, it would make the plane efficient.

I said that same technology would also apply to the smaller twin airframes that have proven more efficient (under existing, real life engine technology) would still be more efficient.

The four forces that dominate flight: lift, gravity, thrust, and drag, don’t care what type of engine is providing the the thrust. The A380 is too heavy to compete aerodynamically with A350, 777, 787, and A330. If they were all powered by rockets or by canvas sails that would still be the case.

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