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AirCal737
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:53 am

For those who states that China needs tons of long range VLAs in the future decades:
It's not likely that this will ever happen.
I truely agree that Chinese airports are running out of slots, but the thing is, domestic travel still takes up the majority of the passenger flow with the exception of HKG which is politically, not mainland China.
However internatioal travel is still reletively weak, especially for 3 out of the 5 major mainland hubs, CAN, SZX and CTU. The government pay the airlines just to keep some 787 and A330 routes running.
There are routes such as CAN-LAX or PEK-JFK which indeed has a high amout of passenger flow, but the overall percentage of international passenger flow in China is still low.
In contrast, we have thousands of 737s and A320s taking up slots and flying on domestic routes. If you have ever done a lot planespotting in mainland China, you would probably get sick to these aircraft.
In recent years we have seen older widebodie returning to domestic service(744s) and newer ones(748, A380, 332/3, 788/9, 77W) are also flying between tier 1/2 cities. China is the only place where you can fly almost all large widebodies domestically(With the exception of 763 an 773 which are. retired)
With the advent of the NMA we will just see tons of A320s and 737NGs(China retires most aircraft pretty early) being replaced NMAs. The NMA and 787 will also help make more international travel possible.
If China really needs a large volume of VLAs, it's going to be a new larger 747-400D. As I said before China “disputes” all kinds of long range widebodies on short domestic routes, there may be a dedicated version one day.
And that only happens when 779s are not big enough for domestic travel.
Also, Chinese carriers wants flexibility. You can see CA 748s returning form JFK and departing for CAN in the same day. Dedicated short range frames are't capable of that. You can see the A330 regional failed to gain customer interest.
 
1zm1
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:07 am

With the growth in air travel, airport congestion to only get worse as airlines look for frequency and the pilot shortage affecting the frequency airlines will be able to fly, there could be a need for a 500+/600+ aircraft in the future.

You could just stretch the twins out, an A350-2000 would be 79m long and would carry 400+ pax. The largest gates in use are A380 gates 80m x 80m. While width would not be a problem, making gates longer to suite an A350-3000 at 86m carrying ~450+ pax could prove to be troublesome to airports as they have to move taxiways or make them restrictive to certain aircraft categories while the 350-3000 is at the gate. Making a 500+ pax acft would mean that the A350-3000 would have to be around 92m long.

The market for a 500+ pax aircraft will come soon with growth in air travel, crew resource shortage and airport congestion as well as heightened concerns for the environmental impact aircraft will have.

The only logical response to giving the market a 500+ pax plane in the future is making a more economical A380NEO as the length of the aircraft would remain more or less the same at 73m.
-More efficient engines making quad engines as efficient as twin engines today, which is possible with the various advancements in technology that will happen in the space of now and when the market develops
-A lighter fuesalage and wings made of Carbon fibre reinforced polymer or something lighter and stronger

These would reduce the cost to operate a revamped quad while carrying the high amount of pax the market would demand, with the current crew resources available at the time as well as airport slots available.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:42 pm

AvWeek: Why Airbus Was Chasing The Wrong Enemy When It Launched The A380 is a pretty good write up.

Its main thrust:

More than two decades ago, the European aerospace industry was obsessive about competing with the Boeing 747. The Europeans suspected that its rival’s largest airliner generated profit margins that allowed it to aggressively market other programs, like the 737, against similar Airbus products. They overlooked an important aspect, that the 747 itself was already past its peak. Europe was sinking multiple billions into chasing the wrong enemy and initially did not pay attention to the real threat, the 777, for which the four-engine A340 was not an adequate challenger.

A funny but ironic bit:

Few in the aerospace industry are immune to the fascination of something big flying. The amazement of finally being able to build something bigger than what the competition is offering cannot be underestimated, whether it makes sense or not. When Harry Stonecipher, Boeing’s CEO at the time, was asked in 2000 why EADS launched the A380, he needed only three words to answer: “Too much testosterone.”

The ironic part is Harry's testosterone led him to an extramarital affair that ended up costing him his job and his marriage.
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Finn350
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:47 pm

Revelation wrote:
AvWeek: Why Airbus Was Chasing The Wrong Enemy When It Launched The A380 is a pretty good write up.

Its main thrust:

More than two decades ago, the European aerospace industry was obsessive about competing with the Boeing 747. The Europeans suspected that its rival’s largest airliner generated profit margins that allowed it to aggressively market other programs, like the 737, against similar Airbus products. They overlooked an important aspect, that the 747 itself was already past its peak. Europe was sinking multiple billions into chasing the wrong enemy and initially did not pay attention to the real threat, the 777, for which the four-engine A340 was not an adequate challenger.

A funny but ironic bit:

Few in the aerospace industry are immune to the fascination of something big flying. The amazement of finally being able to build something bigger than what the competition is offering cannot be underestimated, whether it makes sense or not. When Harry Stonecipher, Boeing’s CEO at the time, was asked in 2000 why EADS launched the A380, he needed only three words to answer: “Too much testosterone.”

The ironic part is Harry's testosterone led him to an extramarital affair that ended up costing him his job and his marriage.


Hindsight is always twenty-twenty.

Of all the forms of wisdom, hindsight is by general consent the least merciful, the most unforgiving.
 
ikramerica
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:20 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
ScottB wrote:

Airlines aren't stuffing their A380s with as many seats possible because they're trying to be nice to their customers. They're flying those around with spacious configurations because they wouldn't be able to fill the additional seats often enough. Airbus offered an 11-across seating option in economy and no airline customer bit. The A380's problem isn't CASM in a direct sense. The problem is the trip cost versus the available revenue based on market demand. CASM is related in that CASM is based on trip cost, distance, and number of seats, of course -- but there is no sense in lowering CASM by stuffing in another 100 seats if you won't be able to fill the seats.

Airlines put all those seats in the 77W and A350 because they can fill them.



Yes, the market is killing the A380. Airbus can't get the model into the market because there is virtually no demand. The ANA order only happened because Airbus agreed to keep Skymark's HND slots out of DL's control. Airframes which are little more than ten years old are being broken up for parts because there's no secondhand market beyond a single frame which went to a charter operator with very close ties to the manufacturer.

It's not as if Airbus didn't shop the planes to customers! The U.S. network carriers all said no. If the Japanese carriers really wanted them, they'd be allowed at HND. Amedeo was allowed to order with very flexible terms in another attempt to place A380s with reluctant customers. You don't think Airbus's sales team would have seen huge bonus checks if they managed to place A380s at customers?


If Boeing does do a squashed fuse for the 797, it will give them critical information about how to scale it up for the 777/747 replacement.

That would lead to a single level 3-3/3-3 fuselage with room for the bulk of the Y bathrooms below like the A346. The main deck in Y would have 2 wide aisles for carts abd a narrower aisle in the middle for access only. You also get 2-2-2-2 in Y+ and 1-2-2-1 in J.

That would be 20-25% increase in capacity compared to a current 3-4-3 with everything on one level.


Interesting, so there will be a market for a 12 abreast squashed and stretched B777X/B747 replacement but not for a nextgen A380...

I'll show you a squashed 12Y cabin today. The A380 main deck is the squashed Y cabin that you are talking about and with thinner sidewall panels and narrower aisles, even 12Y is not impossible.
:banghead:

Maybe in the 2030s. Not now.

The A380 line will have been closed for 10 years by then.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
ikramerica
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:25 pm

Finn350 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
AvWeek: Why Airbus Was Chasing The Wrong Enemy When It Launched The A380 is a pretty good write up.

Its main thrust:

More than two decades ago, the European aerospace industry was obsessive about competing with the Boeing 747. The Europeans suspected that its rival’s largest airliner generated profit margins that allowed it to aggressively market other programs, like the 737, against similar Airbus products. They overlooked an important aspect, that the 747 itself was already past its peak. Europe was sinking multiple billions into chasing the wrong enemy and initially did not pay attention to the real threat, the 777, for which the four-engine A340 was not an adequate challenger.

A funny but ironic bit:

Few in the aerospace industry are immune to the fascination of something big flying. The amazement of finally being able to build something bigger than what the competition is offering cannot be underestimated, whether it makes sense or not. When Harry Stonecipher, Boeing’s CEO at the time, was asked in 2000 why EADS launched the A380, he needed only three words to answer: “Too much testosterone.”

The ironic part is Harry's testosterone led him to an extramarital affair that ended up costing him his job and his marriage.


Hindsight is always twenty-twenty.

Of all the forms of wisdom, hindsight is by general consent the least merciful, the most unforgiving.

I keep reading this from apologists. But it isnt hindsight. It’s foresight. These statements and criticisms were from before the plane was put into production.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 22, 2019 12:17 am

SomebodyInToulouse wrote:
That, excuse my French, has bugger all to do with my point on the a380-800 wing being a lot lighter than the a380-900 wing would have been.


And the wing-weight delta between -900 and -800 has bugger all to do with the point that the wing is too BIG - not that it's too HEAVY.
That's why I said your post read as if ignoring the difference between SIZE and WEIGHT.
I agree that a -900's wing would be heavier due largely to greater wing bending moment from the larger fuselage+payload and greater MTOW (All of my A380 revision proposals, including my recent -900NEO thread, explicitly state that the -900's wing would be heavier than -800's).

Regardless of WEIGHT, the greater SIZE of the -800 wing means more drag than optimal, which means more fuel uplift, which means bigger engines, empennage, MLG, which means more uplift, etc. - the classic "wing loop."
This wing loop process resulted in an -800 that is HEAVIER overall than an optimal design, even holding wing weight constant (again - engines, MLG, empennage are all bigger/heavier due to the too-BIG wing).

SomebodyInToulouse wrote:
I make a point about the wing, you make an insulting personal attack that I don't know what I'm talking about. That's literally what happened.


I said only that your POST read as if you didn't know the difference between size and weight:

This is written as if you don't understand the difference between size, weight, and length.


I assumed then - and know now - that you do indeed understand the difference. I figured you were either eliding the difference for argument's sake or - more likely - weren't responding to my actual argument.
Hopefully you understand now that I'm not arguing specifically that the wing is too HEAVY but that it's too BIG.

SomebodyInToulouse wrote:
I have actually been involved with work on the A380, including the wing - so yes, I am more of an authority than you on these subjects.


Good to know.
I'm still sticking with the statement by the lead designer for the A380's wings (Tom Williams) that the wing was designed (size-wise, not weight-wise) to lift the -900.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 22, 2019 5:30 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I think that the mistake that many here and the Airbus board are making, is thinking that things don't change over time.

Follow me in this scenario: imagine that within 10 years, a new energy source or revolutionary powerplant is discovered or invented that would reduce aircraft energy/fuel costs by 80% compared to now.
This means that flying will become a lot cheaper, increasing demand significantly.

In that scenario, isn't everyone going to want as big an aircraft as possible?
Boeing will have the B748 and B777X to use as platform. What will Airbus have?

Freight-wise, Boeing will also be very well positioned to take advantage of new technology.

Imagine an A380 with the fuel cost of an A320 of today. Not being ready for innovation is a major mistake.


There is a revolution underway in the form of EV vehicles. Once EV gets somewhere above 10% market share it will be at price parity w ic vehicles.

If this happens the next stop is 40-50% market share. At this point oil becomes decoupled from ground transport for the first time in 100 years.

At this point oil goes to marginal cost in the Mid East which 10-12$ a barrel.

This will lead to the next age in the form of supersonic transport.

Call me crazy but if it happens remember you read it here first.
On the hand if some new revolutionary power plant appears I think it is more likely that a new green sheet ac will be required to leverage it.

Go Boom!
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 22, 2019 5:36 am

Planeflyer wrote:
This will lead to the next age in the form of supersonic transport.

Call me crazy but if it happens remember you read it here first.


We're not gonna double or triple the per capita carbon emissions of air transport in the middle of an atmospheric carbon crisis.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 22, 2019 5:59 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
DarkKnight5 wrote:
[

Bankroll me 100 A380's the way STC got his and I'll bankrupt every airline flying transsiberian and/or transatlantic within 3 years and turn a profit from year 3.



You may have said more than you realize; the people who bankroll aircraft won’t do so w the 380.

If you were an investor in ab how much more money would be willing to lose?
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:42 am

Planeflyer wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I think that the mistake that many here and the Airbus board are making, is thinking that things don't change over time.

Follow me in this scenario: imagine that within 10 years, a new energy source or revolutionary powerplant is discovered or invented that would reduce aircraft energy/fuel costs by 80% compared to now.
This means that flying will become a lot cheaper, increasing demand significantly.

In that scenario, isn't everyone going to want as big an aircraft as possible?
Boeing will have the B748 and B777X to use as platform. What will Airbus have?

Freight-wise, Boeing will also be very well positioned to take advantage of new technology.

Imagine an A380 with the fuel cost of an A320 of today. Not being ready for innovation is a major mistake.


There is a revolution underway in the form of EV vehicles. Once EV gets somewhere above 10% market share it will be at price parity w ic vehicles.

If this happens the next stop is 40-50% market share. At this point oil becomes decoupled from ground transport for the first time in 100 years.

At this point oil goes to marginal cost in the Mid East which 10-12$ a barrel.

This will lead to the next age in the form of supersonic transport.

Call me crazy but if it happens remember you read it here first.
On the hand if some new revolutionary power plant appears I think it is more likely that a new green sheet ac will be required to leverage it.

Go Boom!


It's not impossible.
Another such option could be to go ballistic, as Elon Musk proposes.

We are indeed walking away from oil bit by bit.
We can't say that oil will remain cheap but we can't say that it won't. The A380's order book was established at a time of record oil and with the B787/A350 in the pipeline.
The irony I think is that the combination of cheap oil and fuel efficient twins is attracting more airlines to venture into thinner routes from their hubs.
From the top of the head, NH has started DUS and then BRU, while CX ventured into beer destinations BRU, CPH and DUB, but failing miserably in CPH while stacking up losses in BRU and DUB where yields are low.
Scoot couldn't make any of its B788 flights profitable, they figured that they needed the bigger B789 to get into their fleet and we don't know if they're making money now.
At a time of cheap fuel and high demand, many airlines are posting average to mediocre results despite the dominance of the B787/A330/A350/B77W in their fleets.
Fares are being kept high by greedy yield managers while planes are flying half empty, including the smaller twins. For the travellers, hundreds of flight options are available through OTA's with the highest fares up to 50 times higher than the lowest fares.

Is this the right strategy? It may be or it may not be.

But one thing is sure. If you are an A380 operator in a decently good market (MH and CZ are forgiven) , and you are not making buckets of money with it in this climate, you are not in the right business. Consider potato farming.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:21 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Fares are being kept high by greedy yield managers while planes are flying half empty, including the smaller twins. For the travellers, hundreds of flight options are available through OTA's with the highest fares up to 50 times higher than the lowest fares.


What now? There is a bloodbath of a fare war going on as we speak in a wide variety of Pacific markets. Load factors are remaining near record levels in the US market and are not far behind in Europe. Demand is exploding in various large developing countries in Asia. I don't recognize the world you are describing as connected to reality.
 
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mfranjic
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:51 pm

OldAeroGuy wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The too big wing is an airliners.net myth that we read anywhere but people writng that don't know what they're talking about.
If the A380 had a lighter, smaller wing, the TORR would have been unacceptably long and range too little.

Let's compare some wing aspect ratios:

773ER: 9,04
A359: 9,49
A3510: 9,03
777-9: 9,96
A388: 7,53

It's clear that the A388 suffers from a poor aspect ratio (AR) compared to its Twin engine competition.

With its span fixed at 80m, the A388's 25% poorer AR is due to its excess wing area. The higher than necessary wing area causes excess skin friction drag and increases empty weight.

Given the better takeoff performance of Quads, a higher wing loading (less wing area) would have been acceptable as A388 TOFL's could have been comparable to the Twins.

Less outboard fuel due to less outboard wing area could have been offset by having wing center section fuel so range would not have been impacted.

The A388 wing could have been much better if A389 requirements had been included in its design.

The fact that the A388 wing has excess area is not an Anet myth.



At the Paris Air Show 2017 Airbus SE launched the Airbus A380plus development study. The study packages several improvements to the Image.Airbus A380 aircraft, aimed at increasing the capacity and lowering the cost per passenger. The idea was to offer the advantages of an A380neo without changing the engines.

The Airbus A380plus program was also including a more effecient wing than the original A380 wing. The A380 has a wing of advanced design aerodynamically. The wing profile and high lift arrangements are state of the art, but the 80,0 m / 262,5 ft maximum width box forced a relatively low wingspan compared to the aircraft's size and weight. This gave the A380's wing an aspect ratio of 7,5, a low value. Image.Airbus A350 has an aspect ratio of 9,5. The Airbus A380plus' split winglet improves the effective aspect ratio of the wing to 8,4 by changing the pressure distribution of the wing outwards…

More in the article once we were very familiar with, linked by the image below…

Image

Personally, I liked the idea of this package, but not entirely. Namely, I have never liked the idea of seating in 3-5-3 layout in Y class cabin. The other thing are engines:

... interesting to note that the family of Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines (excluding Trent XWB-97 model) covers the thrust range in between 330,0 kN - 374,5 kN (74.200 lbf - 84.200 lbf), almost the same as the Rolls-Royce Trent 900 family of engines with the thrust range of 334,29 kN - 374,09 kN (75.152 lbf - 84.098 lbf) and this is the main reason why the Image.Trent XWB engines were mentioned as a possible replacement for the existing RR Trent 900s or EA GP7200s, aimed for, at one moment actual, Airbus A380neo aircraft. While being more fuel efficient, more quality, more reliable, much more robust, more sophisticated and thermally efficient, in the same time Trent XWB is also a heavier engine than the Trent 900. Heavier - yes, but too heavy - no, I wouldn't say so…

Image. Trent XWB engine has about 550 kg / 1.212 lb more mass than the Image.GP7270 engine.

Please, click on the tables below for the larger views…

Image.A380
Image

Besides, only the inboard engines on the Airbus A380 are equipped with the thrust reversers, what makes those outboard engines with their nacelles lighter. The decision not to install the thrust reversers on the Airbus A380's outboard engines saved weight and lowered the chances that those engines, which sometimes hang over runway edges, would be damaged by ingesting foreign objects. I can't remember if the factory has ever come out with an official statement that Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines are too heavy for Airbus A380 aircraft. The fact is they just couldn't see the business model in reengining the aircraft by those engines. During the 2017 Paris Air Show (PAS) Mr. Fabrice Brégier has said that there is 'no business case' for the Trent XWBs on Airbus A380 and that Airbus A380neo will have to wait for the next generation of the engine technology…

When we are already at the differences in the masses of the engines, just for the comparison I would like to show the weight differences in between the engines of the previous and the current generation of Image.A320 and Image.737 aircraft …

Image.A320
Image

Image.737
Image

… comparison tables for some other types of aircraft with the visible difference in between the data relating to their engines …

Image.A321
Image

Image.757
Image

Image.A330
Image

Image.A340
Image

Image.747
Image

Image.777
Image

Image.DC-8
Image

Image.DC-9 / MD-80 / MD-90
Image

Those two engines, Rolls-Royce Trent XWB, three-shaft, high-bypass, turbofan engine (fan diameter: 2.997,2 mm / 118,0 in; BPR: 9,6:1; engine architecture: 1F–8IPC=6HPC1HPT=2IPT–6LPT), OPR: 50,0:1 and Rolls-Royce Trent 900, three-shaft, high-bypass, turbofan engine (fan diameter: 2.946,4 mm / 116,0 in; BPR: 7,7-8,5:1; engine architecture: 1F–8IPC=6HPC1HPT=1IPT–5LPT), OPR: 39,0:1 are, as described, of the different architectures, and indicative is the fact that the Trent XWB engine has per one stage more in both IPT and LPT sections. Wherefore?

In the order to make the engine more propulsive efficient and specifically tailored to the need of using on the completely new aircraft - Airbus A350, Rolls-Royce's engineers had to increase mass flow through its 118" fan, and which then required more propulsive power. This power was obtained with the increased mass flow of the gases through the engine's core that has received per one stage more on both IPT (2-stage) and LPT (6-stage) sections. Trent 900 engine has single-stage IPT and 5-stage LPT.

Otherwise, Image.Trent XWB engine, aimed for the propulsion of the Image .A350 aircraft is a three-shaft, high-bypass ratio (9,6:1), axial flow, turbofan with Low Pressure (LP), Intermediate Pressure (IP) and High Pressure (HP) compressors driven by the separate turbines through the coaxial shafts.

Image

Fig. 1 - Airbus A380-841, reg. F-WWOW, test aircraft (click for a larger view)


Image

Fig. 2 - Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engine under the wing of Airbus A380-841, reg. F-WWOW, test aircraft


Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engine's architecture comprises 1-stage LP compressor (fan) - 22 blades, diameter 2.997 mm / 118 in, 8-stage IP compressor (IPC), 6-stage HP compressor (HPC), annular combustor with 20-off fuel spray nozzles, 1-stage HP turbine (HPT), 2-stage IP turbine (IPT) and 6-stage LP turbine (LPT). Dual channel full authority digital engine control (FADEC) is the brain power of the engine and supervises its work. The overall pressure ratio (OPR) of the engine (during the takeoff) is 50:1.

The LP and IP shafts rotate in a CCW direction, and the HP shaft rotates CW, when viewed from the rear of the engine. LP shaft's reference rotational speed - N1 is 2.676 rpm, IP shaft's reference rotational speed - N2 is 8.200 rpm and HP shaft's reference rotational speed - N3 is 12.272 rpm.

Image

Fig. 3 - Exploded-view of the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engine


Although I can't back it up with some data and calculations, I always had the feeling Airbus A380's wings are strong and solid enough and would not need added structure to support added weight of Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines, just modified pylons. Since those engines are also more fuel efficient than those currently installed, it is not hard to imagine how much less fuel this aircraft would need to reach its destinations. I am sure the necessary fuel weight difference would be much larger than is the difference in between f.e. Image.GP7270 and Image.Trent XWB-84 engines' weight.

Although the Airbus A380plus aircraft powered by four Image.Trent XWB-84 ( XWB-79B ), three-shaft, high-bypass, turbofan engines (fan diameter: 2.997,2mm / 118,0 in; BPR: 9,6:1; engine architecture: 1F–8IPC=6HPC1HPT=2IPT–6LPT), OPR: 50,0:1, each rated at 374,54 kN / 38.192 kgf / 84.200 lbf (350,96 kN / 35.788 kgf / 78.900 lbf) probably wouldn't be a perfect aircraft, I'm sure it would represent, in a technical sense, a significant step forward in comparison with the existing one. Unfortunately, not a sufficiently worthwhile, economically viable, step. So they say …

… would be interesting to see if it would bring any benefits and antecedences to Emirates to operate the same type of the engine, Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-84, on their Airbus A380s and the future Airbus A350-941 aircraft. Would those engines be too powerful for Airbus A380?

The model of the Airbus A380 aircraft Emirates does operate - Airbus A380-842, are already powered by more powerful version of the certified version of Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engine for Airbus A380 and this is Trent 972B-84, three-shaft, high-bypass, turbofan engines (fan diameter: 2.946,4 mm / 116,0 in; BPR: 7,7-8,5:1; engine architecture: 1F–8IPC=6HPC1HPT=1IPT–5LPT), OPR: 39,0:1, rated at 356,81 kN / 36.384 kgf / 80.214 lbf. Besides there is a derated model of RR Trent XWB engine - XWB-79B, rated at 350,96 kN / 35.788 kgf / 78.900 lbf, quite comparable to the RR Trent 900 engine's model the most of the airlines, and whose aircraft are powered by Rolls-Royce engines, use and this is Trent 970B-84, rated at 348,31 kN / 35.518 kgf / 78.304 lbf.

All the Airbus A380 aircraft powered by Engine Alliance's engines, type Airbus A380-861, have the same model of the engine - Image.GP7270, two-shaft, high-bypass, turbofan engines (fan diameter: 2.946,4 mm / 116,0 in; BPR: 8,8:1; engine architecture: 1F+5LPC–9HPC2HPT–6LPT), OPR: 43,9:1, rated at 332,44 kN / 33.899 kgf / 74.735 lbf, the value that match the thrust of the RR Trent XWB-75 engine, rated at 330,06 kN / 33.657 kgf / 74.200 lbf.

The most powerful certified version of the Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engine is Trent 980-84, rated at 374,09 kN / 38.146 kgf / 84.098 lbf, once scheduled for a streched version of the aircraft - Airbus A380-941, and this is almost identical value of the thrust of Image.Trent XWB-84 turbofan engine, rated at 374,54 kN / 38.192 kgf / 84.200 lbf.

Howsoever it was, it seems too late now for this kind of discussions anymore. Once upon a time we have discussed all this very vividly on this forum. And that not only once ...

Mario
Last edited by mfranjic on Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Only a life lived for others is a life worthwhile" - Albert Einstein
 
PaxPicti
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:52 pm

I don't believe there will ever be another generation of supersonic airliners. The energy economics and the environmental considerations don't make it viable even if the development costs and noise problems could somehow be surmounted. The only reason Concorde ever flew commercially was because the British and French governments bailed out the project to avoid losing face.

I could actually see more of a future for the A380 as a premium luxury air cruise liner than a return to SSTs. It's large enough to make a really comfortable flying experience for a relatively large number of people. Would you rather fly at Mach 2 in a sardine can, or at Mach 0.85 in space, comfort and quiet? The flight will only take twice as long, and you'll probably come off it feeling a lot more relaxed.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:19 am

mfranjic wrote:
... ... ...
At the Paris Air Show 2017 Airbus SE launched the Airbus A380plus development study. The study packages several improvements to the Image.Airbus A380 aircraft, aimed at increasing the capacity and lowering the cost per passenger. The idea was to offer the advantages of an A380neo without changing the engines.

... ... ...


With the end of production announced in 2021, this A380plus is not considered anymore, I guess?
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:22 am

AFAIK some late build aircraft will get some of the plus cabin mods. Different stairhouses and such.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:58 am

Noshow wrote:
AFAIK some late build aircraft will get some of the plus cabin mods. Different stairhouses and such.


You are saying that EK will have smaller staircases in their final frames?
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:04 am

ANA will.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:18 am

Noshow wrote:
ANA will.


OK, they are using the new staircase in the rear. The layout is interesting otherwise, too. There is a bar counter (apparently self-service) in each of the 4 classes

Image

Image

https://www.ana.co.jp/group/en/pr/20180 ... 425-2.html
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:27 pm

I hadn't paid attention to ANA's A380 configuration before. That seems ridiculously premium-heavy for the planned HND-HNL mission. I would have expected no F and more like 30-40 J.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:33 pm

seabosdca wrote:
I hadn't paid attention to ANA's A380 configuration before. That seems ridiculously premium-heavy for the planned HND-HNL mission. I would have expected no F and more like 30-40 J.


I'm guessing they're hoping to cater those cabins to high-end customers who will be stay at fancy resorts and want the full luxury experience from start to end. The large Economy Cabin is there for the price-sensitive and tour customers.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:38 pm

seabosdca wrote:
I hadn't paid attention to ANA's A380 configuration before. That seems ridiculously premium-heavy for the planned HND-HNL mission. I would have expected no F and more like 30-40 J.

Someone above posted that Airbus was making lemons out of lemonade with regard to the A380 program.

Seems ANA also is in the lemonade business.

To me it suggests they know they'll totally trash yields if they try to pack it to the gills with the bucket and spade crowd, and their only hope is to try to capture a large percentage of the high earners heading to HI for business or pleasure.

If in a few years the HNL route ends up with indigestible losses, they will still have blocked DL from getting the vital HND slots, and IMHO the three A380s will be flown off to Tarbes to join their sisters in the scrapping queue, and a few years after their role as an extortion victim will just be a bad memory for ANA.

In the big picture view, Airbus was so busy winning the VLA market share battle they lost the profit war. C'est la guerre...
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:55 pm

PaxPicti wrote:
I don't believe there will ever be another generation of supersonic airliners. The energy economics and the environmental considerations don't make it viable even if the development costs and noise problems could somehow be surmounted. The only reason Concorde ever flew commercially was because the British and French governments bailed out the project to avoid losing face.

I could actually see more of a future for the A380 as a premium luxury air cruise liner than a return to SSTs. It's large enough to make a really comfortable flying experience for a relatively large number of people. Would you rather fly at Mach 2 in a sardine can, or at Mach 0.85 in space, comfort and quiet? The flight will only take twice as long, and you'll probably come off it feeling a lot more relaxed.


That has always been how the A380 was configured for Airlines and if the concept hasn't been successful enough to move planes now, introducing SSTs into the equation was just going to make the situation worse...
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:37 pm

Possibly I've some interesting viewpoints about the A380. It's sad that production will end in 2021, but I expect that we'll see the A380 operating for a long time. (2050s)
Let's list my viewpoints.
1) To make the A380 competitive against the A350, 787 & 777X, a A380NEW was required not just a NEO.
NEW = New Engine & Wing | NEO = New Engine Option.
2) The A380 had to much range, making it to heavy for medium range routes.
Let's look a graphic from the Leeham A380PLUS analysis article.
Image
This shows that a NEO wouldn't work because it would push A380 range above 9000nm. It also shows that the A380 has much more range than TATL routes. That's why it isn't deployed on those routes (Emirates neglected). It is deployed on TPAC, EU-west USA & EU-Asia.
If we look at the A350-1000 specs, it flies 366pax 8400nm with a MTOW of 316mT. That's 100nm further with ~3/4 the passengers but with about half the MTOW of the A380. (if configured equally aka A380+, the A350K is ~0,64 pax for 0,55 MTOW).
To make the A380 competitive the wing should have to be shrunk a lot with engine & wing-optimization.
AFAIK a A380NEW would end up with MOM/ large M-segment or 787/A330NEO engines. That's why the NEO wasn't developed.

3) The A380 design is very light weight (taking the huge wing into account). If the A350 and 787 were developed with the same philosophy they would be several Metric Ton lighter. The 787 & A350 are heavier because of their CFRP fuselage. With a Al-Li fuselage they would be lighter.
4) The A380 has to many exit doors, causing large flight crews and high operational cost.
The A380 has eight (8) pairs of A-type exit doors. Thus to operate it at least 16 flight attendant's are needed. But for passenger loading a crew of <12 would suffice. An A350K with four (4) pairs of A-type exit doors allows 400pax with eight flight attendants.

Hopefully Airbus will use the WWTT's being scraped for spare parts, to develop A380 performance improving after market modifications.
I think many of the Wrong Wired TwentyTwo (MSN001-MSN025 excluding MSN023, and not build MSN018&024) won't pas first D-check as passenger aircraft. But if a combo conversion is developed for them I think they could replace 747-400's on TATL flights. That's a slot restraint airport nice.
I think several of the internal improvements will find their way into the A380's during cabin upgrades. Possibly an upper deck exit door pair can be eliminated when crew rest area is located there. And possibly two type III over wing exits could replace the main deck L/R3 exit door pair.
AFAIK this allows a max exit limit of 725 passengers. 220 passengers on the upper-deck (with four flight attendants, but premium service requires more) and 505 passengers on the main deck. But <400 passengers matching the required flight crew or 8 to operate the exit doors is more likely. Thus a exit door reconfigure A380 (A380ACF) could be operated with a flight crew of 12-14 for 600-700 passengers.
(14 for <600 is the most likely considering the premium heavy configuration on the upperdeck)
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:42 am

For all the talk about shuttling 400+ pax around in the A380, don’t forget about cargo. The A380 was not much of a cargo hauler compared to say the 77W. And maybe there is more money to be made with cargo than low-yield vacation pax?
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:01 am

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Possibly I've some interesting viewpoints about the A380. It's sad that production will end in 2021, but I expect that we'll see the A380 operating for a long time. (2050s)
Let's list my viewpoints.


This is sort of an odd post.

2) The A380 had to much range, making it to heavy for medium range routes.
Let's look a graphic from the Leeham A380PLUS analysis article.
Image
This shows that a NEO wouldn't work because it would push A380 range above 9000nm. It also shows that the A380 has much more range than TATL routes. That's why it isn't deployed on those routes (Emirates neglected). It is deployed on TPAC, EU-west USA & EU-Asia.


You're forgetting about a little A380 operator called Qantas. It uses every nm of range the A380 has, as does Emirates. There's also Singapore Airlines, which if anything probably wanted even more range. The A380 would not have sold more than 100 copies had it been optimized for European operators only, which is more or less what you are suggesting.

If we look at the A350-1000 specs, it flies 366pax 8400nm with a MTOW of 316mT. That's 100nm further with ~3/4 the passengers but with about half the MTOW of the A380. (if configured equally aka A380+, the A350K is ~0,64 pax for 0,55 MTOW).


Well... this is pretty much the issue. It's too big and heavy for what it does. That's not because of too much range, it's because the aircraft appears by all signs to have been planned to be 80 m long, or even more, and ended up never getting there.

To make the A380 competitive the wing should have to be shrunk a lot with engine & wing-optimization.
AFAIK a A380NEW would end up with MOM/ large M-segment or 787/A330NEO engines. That's why the NEO wasn't developed.


More than one poster here has suggested simply hanging the A330neo engines on the A380. Had that been sufficient to solve the problem, Airbus could have done it.

3) The A380 design is very light weight (taking the huge wing into account). If the A350 and 787 were developed with the same philosophy they would be several Metric Ton lighter. The 787 & A350 are heavier because of their CFRP fuselage. With a Al-Li fuselage they would be lighter.


Interesting claim. If it is true, why did Boeing bother to invent a whole new manufacturing process for the 787 at $billions expense, and why did Airbus throw its initial A350 design out and start over again (causing years of delay) to follow suit?

I think many of the Wrong Wired TwentyTwo (MSN001-MSN025 excluding MSN023, and not build MSN018&024) won't pas first D-check as passenger aircraft. But if a combo conversion is developed for them I think they could replace 747-400's on TATL flights. That's a slot restraint airport nice.


Only BA and LH are still using 747-400s on TATL flights, and neither one is carrying the sort of cargo that requires a combi aircraft, especially one with the massive cargo volume that would come with the main deck on an A380 being devoted to cargo. BA is mostly using the Queen for cabin width in order to fit a truly massive J cabin for its JFK route, and the upper deck of an A380 combi wouldn't do well on that mission. I don't understand who would buy an A380 combi or pay for the expense of developing it (including floor reinforcements for the main deck).
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:13 am

A380 production to stop in 2021 according to Airbus. Is the discussed A380neo a replacement for the current production?
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:35 am

No, all production will be terminated. Some neo or plus never got launched.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:49 pm

@seabosdca Isn't Qantas operating many TPAC flights?
I agree they and Emirates are some of the exceptions that could use a A380 with additional range. But that would make the A380neo even more optimized for a smaller market.

@VV & Noshow: I wrote about after market modifications. Modifications for during D-check and cabin overhaul. New builds won't come after 2021.

I expect the A380 fleet could stabilize at 150 - 230 aircraft and remain in operation for at least another 20years. Emirates could probably operate 115 A380's for a while (82 EA & 33 RR).
To keep the WWTT in operation I think a combo conversion is required. This could be half to full main deck cargo, AFAIK this has been studied in concept by Airbus.
Another use for the WWTT are as engine test aircraft.

If the A380 fleet really remains >200 for another decade, there might even be a A380NEO modification. Both EA and RR aren't likely to do PIPs for 100-125 A380's or 400-500 engines. Possibly aftermarket services for such a small engine fleet will be expansive. Thus making it cheaper if one replacement engine, shared with another aircraft type, is made suitable for the whole fleet.
Most likely there are contracts between Airbus and EA / RR that prohibit this.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:43 pm

Noshow wrote:
No, all production will be terminated. Some neo or plus never got launched.



Thanks. So it will be terminated in 2021 for sure?
Why the heck are people still talking about it?
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:54 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
I expect the A380 fleet could stabilize at 150 - 230 aircraft and remain in operation for at least another 20years.

Let's wait for the engine OEM's statements before jumping on that bandwagon. If either decide to cease support for their products the A380 will go the way of the Concorde.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:57 pm

seabosdca wrote:
You're forgetting about a little A380 operator called Qantas. It uses every nm of range the A380 has, as does Emirates. There's also Singapore Airlines, which if anything probably wanted even more range. The A380 would not have sold more than 100 copies had it been optimized for European operators only, which is more or less what you are suggesting.

The thinking might be that to produce a European centric product would have prevented the penetration of the likes of EK into the European marketplace, unfortunately it does not address the geographic situation, but small steps one thing at a time.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:56 pm

I'm not a big fan of Airbus in general, but I am sad to see the A380 go. It was a pretty bird. I used to enjoy watching BA297 fly into ORD until they changed it to a 777.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 3:16 pm

I disagree with the statement that my view of the A380 has to much range is Europa centric. To get the reason I'll argue with numbers without backing. So don't hammer me down on the details, I'm describing a means of thought.
If we look at the aviation network several segments can be viewed. Most of the flights are <3500nm and done with regionals and narrowbodies making several rotations daily. This might be >60% of the aircraft market and <40% in value.
The TATL market is ~4000nm allowing 1,5 rotations daily (three flights). This is part of the 3500 -6000nm range segment where 1-2 rotations are possibly, this might be 25% of the plane market with 40% value.
Then there is the TPAC market 6000-8000nm with three to one daily flights. This might be 13% of the plane market with 17% value.
There is one segment higher >8000nm flying Australia-US East coast, Australia-UK or South Amerika- India. This is a very small market segment. (2% & 3% in my example).
The flaw of the A380 project was that is was designed as extremely large TPAC plane, with the possibility for a further stretch (the A380-900). What you see with Qantas project rainbow is that passenger and freight load is traded for range. The A380 has nearly the required range with optimization for cargo hold volume. AFAIK there was a development option for an additional center wingbox tank, taking cargohold volume. A hipotetical A380NEW with smaler wing could get the range with this option but would be less overweight on the bulk of the flights (<6000nm). This is the whole reasoning behind the MOM/M market segment.
The A330NEO, 787 and A350 also have to much range aka to much fuel tank volume for most of the flights. Thus there is space for a optimized aircraft for the medium range.
Several airports in Europe (and Asia) are slot restraint. In Europe it's sometimes for political reasons). If you look at AMS, most long distance flights are moving towards larger aircraft. This is has also happened at LHR. With the A380 and 747-8i out of production, the largest newbuild aircraft will be the 777-9 (future developments neglected).
Sorry but I don't get the hourly flight service by the alliances between LHR and YFK. Instead of 10 daily direct flights wouldn't 8 daily direct flights and two flights to other destinations be beter for the networks? That's why I still think there is a need for the A380.
But that could be satisfied with the already build A380's, for a long time.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 3:38 pm

VV wrote:
Noshow wrote:
No, all production will be terminated. Some neo or plus never got launched.



Thanks. So it will be terminated in 2021 for sure?
Why the heck are people still talking about it?

Well, did you not expect the A380 to have a big wake?
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 3:56 pm

ikramerica wrote:
Well, did you not expect the A380 to have a big wake?


Well played, Sir!
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:46 pm

italie wrote:
I'm not a big fan of Airbus in general, but I am sad to see the A380 go. It was a pretty bird. I used to enjoy watching BA297 fly into ORD until they changed it to a 777.


It'll be back to A380 next summer.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:00 pm

par13del wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
You're forgetting about a little A380 operator called Qantas. It uses every nm of range the A380 has, as does Emirates. There's also Singapore Airlines, which if anything probably wanted even more range. The A380 would not have sold more than 100 copies had it been optimized for European operators only, which is more or less what you are suggesting.

The thinking might be that to produce a European centric product would have prevented the penetration of the likes of EK into the European marketplace, unfortunately it does not address the geographic situation, but small steps one thing at a time.


But even Dubai to Geneva or Nice or Munich isn’t very far. So do you give the A380 only 1000km range? The 777-300ER also has long range too, so should it equally have been range limited to the same amount to stop EK since they have huge numbers of them flying to Europe and elsewhere?

Perhaps that thinking is less than ideal.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:45 pm

ikramerica wrote:
VV wrote:
Noshow wrote:
No, all production will be terminated. Some neo or plus never got launched.



Thanks. So it will be terminated in 2021 for sure?
Why the heck are people still talking about it?

Well, did you not expect the A380 to have a big wake?


I think I said that the market for big quads was small and shrinking, I don't think I ever said it would make big wave.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:48 pm

Revelation wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
I hadn't paid attention to ANA's A380 configuration before. That seems ridiculously premium-heavy for the planned HND-HNL mission. I would have expected no F and more like 30-40 J.

Someone above posted that Airbus was making lemons out of lemonade with regard to the A380 program.

Seems ANA also is in the lemonade business.

To me it suggests they know they'll totally trash yields if they try to pack it to the gills with the bucket and spade crowd, and their only hope is to try to capture a large percentage of the high earners heading to HI for business or pleasure.

If in a few years the HNL route ends up with indigestible losses, they will still have blocked DL from getting the vital HND slots, and IMHO the three A380s will be flown off to Tarbes to join their sisters in the scrapping queue, and a few years after their role as an extortion victim will just be a bad memory for ANA.

In the big picture view, Airbus was so busy winning the VLA market share battle they lost the profit war. C'est la guerre...

How does ANA have anything to do with whether or not Delta is awarded a slot at HND to operate HNL. Unless I’m completely misreading the HND thread, there are (currently) twelve Haneda authorities up for grabs, and those awards are at the discretion of The USDOT. Japan, and ANA for that matter, don’t appear to have had a lot of say in that.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:52 pm

luckyone wrote:
How does ANA have anything to do with whether or not Delta is awarded a slot at HND to operate HNL. Unless I’m completely misreading the HND thread, there are (currently) twelve Haneda authorities up for grabs, and those awards are at the discretion of The USDOT. Japan, and ANA for that matter, don’t appear to have had a lot of say in that.


He’s referring to ANA’s A380 order, which was made in order to get Airbus (a major Skymark creditor) to back ANA’s bid for the assets post-bankruptcy, lest a competitor get coveted HND slots. It has nothing to do with the latest Haneda slot distribution.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:26 pm

par13del wrote:
CFRPwingALbody wrote:
I expect the A380 fleet could stabilize at 150 - 230 aircraft and remain in operation for at least another 20years.

Let's wait for the engine OEM's statements before jumping on that bandwagon. If either decide to cease support for their products the A380 will go the way of the Concorde.

As only a few operators are 'freestyling' A380 engine maintenance, and the largest operator signs for a fixed price minimum 15 year contract (financier / leasor residuals), support won't be going soon, unless both have deep pockets for early termination penalties.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 25, 2019 12:27 am

PaxPicti wrote:
I don't believe there will ever be another generation of supersonic airliners. The energy economics and the environmental considerations don't make it viable even if the development costs and noise problems could somehow be surmounted. The only reason Concorde ever flew commercially was because the British and French governments bailed out the project to avoid losing face.

I could actually see more of a future for the A380 as a premium luxury air cruise liner than a return to SSTs. It's large enough to make a really comfortable flying experience for a relatively large number of people. Would you rather fly at Mach 2 in a sardine can, or at Mach 0.85 in space, comfort and quiet? The flight will only take twice as long, and you'll probably come off it feeling a lot more relaxed.


I’d rather fly at M2.4 in a 200-250 seater SST, the type most commonly proposed now. It would have reasonable size business class seating.

I don’t want to spend 12 hours on a spacious A380, even in business or first class (I’ve done that). 12 hours or more is too long.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:18 am

cpd wrote:
PaxPicti wrote:
I don't believe there will ever be another generation of supersonic airliners. The energy economics and the environmental considerations don't make it viable even if the development costs and noise problems could somehow be surmounted. The only reason Concorde ever flew commercially was because the British and French governments bailed out the project to avoid losing face.

I could actually see more of a future for the A380 as a premium luxury air cruise liner than a return to SSTs. It's large enough to make a really comfortable flying experience for a relatively large number of people. Would you rather fly at Mach 2 in a sardine can, or at Mach 0.85 in space, comfort and quiet? The flight will only take twice as long, and you'll probably come off it feeling a lot more relaxed.


I’d rather fly at M2.4 in a 200-250 seater SST, the type most commonly proposed now. It would have reasonable size business class seating.

I don’t want to spend 12 hours on a spacious A380, even in business or first class (I’ve done that). 12 hours or more is too long.


Me three!
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:28 am

cpd wrote:
But even Dubai to Geneva or Nice or Munich isn’t very far. So do you give the A380 only 1000km range? The 777-300ER also has long range too, so should it equally have been range limited to the same amount to stop EK since they have huge numbers of them flying to Europe and elsewhere?

Perhaps that thinking is less than ideal.

The 777-300ER is a Boeing product, not the pride of Europe which the A380 is...the trend of thought is not just the physical product and its capabilities.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:38 am

smartplane wrote:
As only a few operators are 'freestyling' A380 engine maintenance, and the largest operator signs for a fixed price minimum 15 year contract (financier / leasor residuals), support won't be going soon, unless both have deep pockets for early termination penalties.

The largest operator and RR could not come to an agreement on a new order which was supposed to be the lifeline for the A380 program.
Also, the largest operator switched their engine OEM, I need to do some research to see how many of EK birds are EA versus RR.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:06 am

cpd wrote:
So do you give the A380 only 1000km range?


It worked for the Mercure, didn't it? ;)
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:54 pm

par13del wrote:
smartplane wrote:
As only a few operators are 'freestyling' A380 engine maintenance, and the largest operator signs for a fixed price minimum 15 year contract (financier / leasor residuals), support won't be going soon, unless both have deep pockets for early termination penalties.

The largest operator and RR could not come to an agreement on a new order which was supposed to be the lifeline for the A380 program.
Also, the largest operator switched their engine OEM, I need to do some research to see how many of EK birds are EA versus RR.

That they may not have come to an agreement for a new purchase does not necessarily mean they can walk away from exisiting engine support agreements without penalty.

According to https://www.abcdlist.nl/a380f/a380f.html the Emirates fleet consists of 90 A380s with EA engines, and 19 with RR (with a further 13 to come to take it to a total of 33)

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
ScottB
Posts: 6597
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:38 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
I expect the A380 fleet could stabilize at 150 - 230 aircraft and remain in operation for at least another 20years. Emirates could probably operate 115 A380's for a while (82 EA & 33 RR).
To keep the WWTT in operation I think a combo conversion is required. This could be half to full main deck cargo, AFAIK this has been studied in concept by Airbus.
Another use for the WWTT are as engine test aircraft.


200 is about the maximum size for the global A380 fleet going forward. The WWTT as you call them are just going to get parked apart from HiFly maybe taking on one or two more examples with support from Airbus. A combi conversion would likely cost tends of millions of dollars and you'd still have the wiring issues; it'd probably be a lot more cost-effective for operators to just use a 77F/A330F for cargo (which also doesn't care quite as much about schedule or airport choice) and an A330/787 for the passengers.

Really, it all depends on EK and how long they're willing to retain their frames. AF will dump 5 of their 10, QR will phase theirs out with lease expiration, and the A380 seems like a poor fit for EY's revised business model. I suspect we will also see MH and TG park theirs sooner rather than later. As long as EK is willing to keep a large fleet operating, vendor support will be good; once EK starts to wind things down, parts will become more difficult or expensive to procure as the global fleet drops below 100.

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
If the A380 fleet really remains >200 for another decade, there might even be a A380NEO modification.


Nope. There'd be the cost of certifying that the airframe can structurally support heavier engines as well as all the related design and modification costs. Plus you'd have the cost of buying entirely new engines along with the certification costs which would be split across the set of aircraft which would be upgraded. A set of four Trent XWB engines would probably run $80-100 million (list is apparently ~$35 million) and with the program development costs we're almost certainly well above $100 million per unit for planes which would already be middle-aged.

mfranjic wrote:
Although I can't back it up with some data and calculations, I always had the feeling Airbus A380's wings are strong and solid enough and would not need added structure to support added weight of Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines, just modified pylons.


You are certainly welcome to your feelings; however, I am glad that both EASA and FAA tend to rely more on actual data and calculations and would very likely insist that Airbus show their work in order to demonstrate that A380s fitted with Trent XWBs are every bit as safe (if not more so) than the already-certified versions.
 
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Stitch
Posts: 26318
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:25 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
To keep the WWTT in operation I think a combo conversion is required. This could be half to full main deck cargo, AFAIK this has been studied in concept by Airbus.


Studied and abandoned. There will be no combi or passenger-to-freighter conversion of the A380s. They will serve as passenger frames until they are removed from service and scrapped.


CFRPwingALbody wrote:
If the A380 fleet really remains >200 for another decade, there might even be a A380NEO modification.


The A380neo was a non-starter with >200 planes planned (EK looking to order 50 new plus replace their existing fleet of 150 plus hopeful upgrades of the other operators).


CFRPwingALbody wrote:
The flaw of the A380 project was that is was designed as extremely large TPAC plane, with the possibility for a further stretch (the A380-900).


Asia was where the growth was expected - the "Mega Hubs" that underlined the A380's business case - so the airframe had to have the range to service them.


CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Several airports in Europe (and Asia) are slot restraint.


And yet those airports are building new runways and new terminals to reduce those slot restrictions.


CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Sorry but I don't get the hourly flight service by the alliances between LHR and JFK. Instead of 10 daily direct flights wouldn't 8 daily direct flights and two flights to other destinations be better for the networks?


A significant portion of LHR-JFK traffic is businessfolk who need flexible schedules (so more frequencies). Those frequencies also allow more banks of connecting flights to link up with them for the tourists who are not so particular about when they leave / arrive.

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