worldranger
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:50 pm

The 339 is long overdue. Right sized to launch a new route or add a second or third daily, cheap to acquire. This size aircraft was sorely missed at EK over the last few years.

I think a lot can change with that 350 order bewtween now and 2024, we shall see.

RE the 380, the market is fragmenting and the 321LR/LRX will continue to attack and bypass the hubs in this part of world, downsizing frame size is a hedge.

Overall a positive for EK.
Last edited by worldranger on Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
airbazar
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:51 pm

Conspicuously absent from any news reports is the fact that DXB is already operating near its limit and when you replace a good number of VLA's with twice as many smaller planes that usually means you know you're going to have a lot more availability at your home airport. So does this mean that we should soon expect an announcement on the long awaited move to DWC?
FYI, the A339 will make an excellent "5th Freedom" airplane. Officially they say they will use it on regional routes but I fully expect their 5th freedom routes such as MXP-JFK to switch to the A339.
As far as the A380 fleet I expect them to be around for a long time. Yes, they've been retiring them at 12 years but that was when they could be replaced by newer, more efficient ones. I just can't imagine EK at places like LHR, JFK, or SYD without A380's.
Last edited by airbazar on Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jayunited
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:58 pm

Aviation737 wrote:
What are the chances of the 787 being ordered?


There was no way Airbus was going to just allow EK to cancel their A380 order an not get EK to replace that order with another Airbus product. The only way I see the 787-10 in EK's fleet is if they convert part of their future 777 order to 787s. If EK decides to leave the existing 777 order as is the 787 will probably never find a home with EK.

This is really a sad day for the A380 and although we are still years away from quads being retired from passenger service it's going to be a surreal day when it comes.
 
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:08 pm

I think people are underselling what a huge turning point this is.

EK has been on a decades long path to be the biggest and have the best.

That all changed today.

The plan that had 140+ A380s flying from DWC has just died a public death and EK is no longer on the trajectory it used to be on.

I think the biggest factor in both the rise and now decline of EK has been Tim Clark.

His bare knuckles negotiating style worked for a long time but has come up short over the last few years.

He kept demanding the newest and best tech for the cheapest price.

That worked well, right up to the A380neo negotiations where he asked for too much and put too little on to the table.

The public snubbing of Airbus at the Paris Air Show couldn't have helped.

STC set out to get an A380neo and failed. He set out to keep A380 in production and failed.

What's next for STC?

seahawk wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Why would EK need A330neo?

Because those were the price to pay to get rid of the A380s. Based on pure performance and usefulness EK did opt for the 787 as can be seen by the 787 MOU.

It's interesting how the same people who say the A320 is superior to the 737 just because it's newer won't use the same logic when comparing 787 to A330.

I think EK negotiated itself into a bad position and had to accept second best.

Note that second best does not mean junk, it just means second best.

That's a rare fail for EK and STC, but he's been drawing a lot of bad cards lately.

JustSomeDood wrote:
Projected delivery timings for these frames would be something to watch, DXB is crowded as it is and DWC has faced many delays, I don't see the bulk of them getting delivered until well into the 2020s. Given EK's past actions, it would be a serious test of how firm these orders actually are.

EK is getting second best A330neos and the last of the pre-NEO A350s.

It would not surprise me if some post-STC regime decided they weren't happy with this deal and found some way to move on from it.

Dump the A330neos on some other carrier and roll all pending builds and future orders into A350neo perhaps.

Time will tell. With EK the only constant is change...
Last edited by Revelation on Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MEA-707
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:10 pm

AirIndia wrote:
SQ789 wrote:
I guess EVZ will be the last A380.

EVV. currently at EVH and so 14 more.


The reason I think EVS and you think EVV is because, while EVH is the most recent delivery, part of the final 14 yet to be delivered are the earlier registrations EVC, EVD and EVG which are not delivered yet.
nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
 
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Finn350
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:16 pm

Revelation wrote:
I think the biggest factor in both the rise and now decline of EK has been Tim Clark.

His bare knuckles negotiating style worked for a long time but has come up short over the last few years.

He kept demanding the newest and best tech for the cheapest price.

That worked well, right up to the A380neo negotiations where he asked for too much and put too little on to the table.

The public snubbing of Airbus at the Paris Air Show couldn't have helped.

STC set out to get an A380neo and failed. He set out to keep A380 in production and failed.

What's next for STC?


I don't think this has anything to do with negotiation skills or persons. I think that Airbus and EK jointly came to the conclusion that there is no business case for the A380neo, no matter how you look at it. The A330neo/A350 order is just the follow-up of that conclusion.
 
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:23 pm

Revelation wrote:

I think EK negotiated itself into a bad position and had to accept second best.

Note that second best does not mean junk, it just means second best...


Imho the 2 MoUs for the 36 A380 and 40 787s were always linked. The 787-1000 is a bit big as the smallest member of the fleet when your largest member will be the 777-9 in the future, while the smaller 787-9 is a bit much for the routes envisioned for the 787-1000.

EK needed to considers many things. Changing traffic flow, growing competition, the impact of the new twins that open more direct connections, the willingness of the government to keep pushing the size of EK and the airports, the costs of more A380s (like financing costs for a plane with nearly no second hand market), yield management and sustainability. Imho all this combined made them much more conservative on the future growth outlook ,the number of A380s they can use and on their future business model. But once you come to the conclusion that the A380s will be on the way out by 2030, your whole fleet planing needs adjustment. Imho they simply switched OEMs. Boeing will now get the big planes with the 777-9, while Airbus now got the smaller feeder and lower density route planes. In that new fleet plan the A339 might not even be the second choice, as the circumstances have changed with the decision against the A380.
 
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:34 pm

Can anyone summarise EK’s order book and expected delivery dates.

Maybe I am being irrational, but could the 777x be at risk here and could the 350 become the biggest jet in the fleet?
 
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Stitch
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:50 pm

jensobreuer wrote:
With A330s and A350s (maybe also ULR) ordered I could imagine EK streamlining their 777 order to 777-9 only and cancelling or converting their 35 777-8 ... What do you think?


The 777-8 is tailor-made specifically for EK's route launching strategy which is currently to start with a 777-200LR and then grow traffic to a 777-300ER and then an A380-800. On ULH routes, that 777-300ER has to go out payload-restricted so they leave either seats or cargo hold positions (or both) empty. The 777-8 is effectively a (9Y) 777-300ER's payload with a 777-200LR's range so they do not have to block seats / ULD positions as traffic grows which gives them more "breathing room".

An A350-900ULR is completely unsuitable as it is optimized around (relatively) low payload weights to allow for very high fuel weights. If Airbus does launch a HGW A350-1000ULR this might be a more effective option, but EK is likely to have 777-8's either in the fleet or in production when that model would become available so EK would likely still favor the 777-8.
 
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:52 pm

FB330 wrote:
Can anyone summarise EK’s order book and expected delivery dates.

Maybe I am being irrational, but could the 777x be at risk here and could the 350 become the biggest jet in the fleet?

14 A380s
40 A339s from 2021?
30 A350s from ???
150 777Xs (35 778, 115 779) from 2020.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:52 pm

FB330 wrote:
Can anyone summarise EK’s order book and expected delivery dates. Maybe I am being irrational, but could the 777x be at risk here and could the 350 become the biggest jet in the fleet?


The A330-900 are scheduled to enter service in 2021 and the A350-900s in 2024.

Emirates will likely be the initial delivery customer for the 777-9 and if so, the first frames would be scheduled to arrive in their fleets in 2020.
 
tphuang
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:53 pm

So, let's see what this means.
all of the 150 77X is probably safe. Maybe they will order more down the road to replace the departing A380, but that remains to be seen
A330NEOs means no more 78X
A350 will replace some of the earlier 777s. Possible more orders down the road to replace retiring 777s.
It seems to me downgauging everywhere across EK fleet.
 
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:56 pm

Finn350 wrote:
I don't think this has anything to do with negotiation skills or persons. I think that Airbus and EK jointly came to the conclusion that there is no business case for the A380neo, no matter how you look at it. The A330neo/A350 order is just the follow-up of that conclusion.

I think an A380neo based on T1000/TXWB was more than possible in the 2014-6 time frame. As I wrote, I think STC asked for too much and put too little on to the table to get it done. We know TXWB used A380 for its flying testbed so the basic integration was there to be had. Presuming no major mismatches were found, it should have been a matter of an agreement on financing the testing and STC would have a 5% better SFC than T900, a path to future T1000/TXWB PIPs and (presumably) none of the erosion issues being seen by T900. Today we'd probably have the 20+18 deal signed and A380 production secured out to ~2026. Instead, today we have the end of the A380 production line being announced.
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WIederling
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:56 pm

sabby wrote:
After the very successful introduction of the newer gen twins with great fuel economy and range, a lot of the airlines have started/resumed long hauls that overfly the ME. This will only grow, even more after the next generation engines. I think EK's only 777 and A380 fleet wouldn't work for many routes in future. Even now, there are a lot of routes that doesn't require a large aircraft as 77W but that's the smallest frame they have. They can use 2xA339 for one A380 on high O&D demand routes as well as new routes. The A350 can take the long 77W routes with less demand which will free them up for more growth routes. I wouldn't be surprised if EK do take deliveries of 787-10s albeit part of a different order 10 years later with newer engines.


You miss out on every Emirates flight being a P2H collecting flight.
That is at least a magnitude more traffic per relation than you could hope to scoop up for P2P flights.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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PM
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:08 pm

A sad day for the A380 but I'm thrilled for the A330neo. And I doubt if RR are crying into their beer right now...
 
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PerfectGriffin
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:38 pm

This news makes me feel sad. I loved the A380 and the aircraft has been instrumental in EK's success financially and for its brand awareness in the last decade. Also the fact that EK cancelled the A350 before (which was an order they revived steep discounts on as launch customers) and then now re-ordered it makes this decision worse.
 
smartplane
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:08 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Why would EK need A330neo?


To me, that would be their fleet primarily to African destinations and secondary European destinations, along with possibly fifth-freedom to NYC (like ATH-EWR and MXP-JFK). Because of bilateral restrictions, I still see the A380 going to China and India. It's also possible that some destinations could be handed off to FZ.

The current EK/FZ split is WB/NB respectively, so EK had to acquire small WB's to keep the demarcation crystal clear.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:10 pm

Revelation wrote:
EK is getting second best A330neos and the last of the pre-NEO A350s.


Second best? Obviously not second best enough for EK to stick with their commitment for the 787-10.

The A350s could easily be deferred to become neos, but I would be very surprised if a UF powered A350 was available much before 2030. So my expectation is that EK will take TXWB powered A350s.
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airbazar
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:12 pm

Revelation wrote:
I think people are underselling what a huge turning point this is.

EK has been on a decades long path to be the biggest and have the best.

That all changed today.

The plan that had 140+ A380s flying from DWC has just died a public death and EK is no longer on the trajectory it used to be on.

I think the biggest factor in both the rise and now decline of EK has been Tim Clark.


Wow, death? decline? You do realize that this swap results in a fleet size increase and quite possibly a total seat increase?
30 A359's + 40 A339's is more than 39 A380's. Plus 150 77X's. How is this a decline? If anything it represents growth.
It's merely EK coming to the realization that to continue to expand they need smaller planes. How is this strategy good for everyone else around the world but bad for EK?
 
smartplane
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:15 pm

airbazar wrote:
As far as the A380 fleet I expect them to be around for a long time. Yes, they've been retiring them at 12 years but that was when they could be replaced by newer, more efficient ones. I just can't imagine EK at places like LHR, JFK, or SYD without A380's.

With a few deliveries still to come, and some likely some lease extensions too, still around for a decade plus.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:18 pm

par13del wrote:
According to some of those same few and others, EK cannot survive without the A380, so unless Airbus decides to make a new frame by 2025, do we speculate on the demise of EK? Warped logic coming home to roots is what it is....


Well if they keep their current business model they cannot survive without the A380. How will they replace the 40 premium seats they lose on a route like LHR per flight if they swap out the A380 with the 77W? If you put the 777X on the route instead and you use the extra length then it is 33 seats in premium seating you lose per flight. But changing the business model means you are not married to the A380. It is going to be interesting to see what they do in future regarding capacity, although that question has so many variables that premium seats to LHR may not be a problem in 5 years time (Brexit). Taking the A330neo surely does signal a change in approach when the A359 was touted as too small in the competition with the 787.


Revelation wrote:
EK is getting second best A330neos and the last of the pre-NEO A350s.

It would not surprise me if some post-STC regime decided they weren't happy with this deal and found some way to move on from it.

Dump the A330neos on some other carrier and roll all pending builds and future orders into A350neo perhaps.

Time will tell. With EK the only constant is change...


I don't know if it is true but if the OEMs are becoming harsher with their terms on cancellations and model swaps then surely any orders we see being done in the recent past should be more firm than order from 5-10 years ago. There is no more A380 sales that EK can use to cancel a order of other frames with EK with and the program that needs sales is the one people think is the most likely to be lost by EK. Seems that Airbus has EK in the program they need right now, the A330neo and I don't see incentive for Airbus to allow EK to cancel those orders with other sales of other programs. Maybe A320 at FlyDubai is the only way to go if they want to?
 
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:40 pm

Bricktop wrote:
phoenix123 wrote:
Good move. Now I want to hear some news about the new narrow body and A350-2000.

Yeah right. Come on Airbus, what have you done for me lately? Most of our friends in Europe aren't even awake yet. Leave them the chance to at least dance a few jigs before the the new wave of speculative threads start.


5 hours ago most of our European friends were at lunch as it would have been 1:38pm there. I saw news of this at 2AM Arizona time from the BBC.
 
airbazar
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:46 pm

enzo011 wrote:
par13del wrote:
According to some of those same few and others, EK cannot survive without the A380, so unless Airbus decides to make a new frame by 2025, do we speculate on the demise of EK? Warped logic coming home to roots is what it is....


Well if they keep their current business model they cannot survive without the A380. How will they replace the 40 premium seats they lose on a route like LHR per flight if they swap out the A380 with the 77W?


They'll need a bigger airport. They are essentially doing what most airlines have been doing for a while now. They getting smaller planes for both increased frequencies and to reach thinner markets. Both of which will only grow their current business model. The A380's will be in their fleet for a very long time. 15 years from now who knows what the global airline market will look like and what new VLA aircraft there will be but I expect EK to be flying A380's for at least another 15 years.
 
smartplane
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:49 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
brindabella wrote:
I think we can be certain that RR will be supplying some VERY cheap engines ... but the fact that EK is the party to announce the actual cancellation may not mean too much, IMO.
I dont understand why this is certain, it was my understanding that EK put in the additional order for 20+16 that was conditional on RR providing a PiP for the T900. RR didn't think it was worth it for the price EK were looking for so the order (and the A380 line) has fallen through. If I ask a builder to do a job for me and he doesn't think its worth the money to do it, that doesn't mean I'll get a deal on the next job.

All RR engines supplied to EK are inexpensive from cradle to grave, compared to low volume purchasers, including purchasing 12+2 years fixed price PBTH, and RR parts held on consignment in DXB.

The T900 does not under-perform vis a vis the GP7000. In most respects it performs at or above the EA engine. But it under-performs in respect to the performance guarantees negotiated.

Performance guarantees can be met. Just means additional RR servicing and parts costs, including engine removal, and compensating EK for higher than promised aircraft downtime.

What we don't know, is have T900 performance guarantees been softened in return for even lower priced A330 and A350 engines? Or has RR reduced T900 PBTH costs to offset performance erosion? Or gifted additional T900's? Or promised EK will receive PiP's for other engines before any other operator? Or has first option to acquire T900's at pre-agreed prices as A380's are retired? Or combination?
 
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:53 pm

airbazar wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I think people are underselling what a huge turning point this is.

EK has been on a decades long path to be the biggest and have the best.

That all changed today.

The plan that had 140+ A380s flying from DWC has just died a public death and EK is no longer on the trajectory it used to be on.

I think the biggest factor in both the rise and now decline of EK has been Tim Clark.


Wow, death? decline? You do realize that this swap results in a fleet size increase and quite possibly a total seat increase?
30 A359's + 40 A339's is more than 39 A380's. Plus 150 77X's. How is this a decline? If anything it represents growth.
It's merely EK coming to the realization that to continue to expand they need smaller planes. How is this strategy good for everyone else around the world but bad for EK?



The 40 787s would have been in there instead of the A330s.
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Bambel
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:30 pm

Does anybody know the difference in hot&high performance between 787 and 339/359?

BTW: will be on a 380 for the first fime in two weeks :)

B.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:38 pm

Bambel wrote:
Does anybody know the difference in hot&high performance between 787 and 339/359?


The A350-900 has more powerful engines and a larger wing than the 787-9 and 787-10.

The A330-900 has a larger wing, but less powerful engines than the 787-9 and 787-10.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:48 pm

I do not get the doubts about the A330, in the 2000s it was the route opener for EK and worked just fine for them.
 
bigjku
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:56 pm

seahawk wrote:
I do not get the doubts about the A330, in the 2000s it was the route opener for EK and worked just fine for them.


Given its current low order volume for the NEO I do wonder if it fits their finance model of relatively short term leases that are usually returned. Then again there are numerous lessons who have aircraft on order and I wouldn’t be totally floored if we saw someone of them transfer their orders to EK and provide the financing just to get free from the situation.
 
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:06 pm

Stitch wrote:
Bambel wrote:
Does anybody know the difference in hot&high performance between 787 and 339/359?


The A350-900 has more powerful engines and a larger wing than the 787-9 and 787-10.

The A330-900 has a larger wing, but less powerful engines than the 787-9 and 787-10.


Is there a reason the T7000 can't be pushed to T1000 thrust levels?
 
airzona11
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:06 pm

As others have mentioned, this is a pivot in EKs strategy. 778X was to be the smallest plane in the fleet, now it's the A330900. DXB is still the best-positioned hub, but as other airlines have reacted to EK and ME3 plus the point to point and longer haul flying being more economical, it has presented a formidable challenge to EK. With smaller planes they do not need to chase body count then can chase yield while achieving acceptable load factors. Another piece here is that developing markets are cooling and there are doubts on just how large those aviation markets will actually grow in 10 years time. At the end of the day, EK is an airline, and impacted by factors all airlines face.

I wonder the configuration of these planes?
 
Alias1024
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:30 pm

Am I the only one more surprised that they took A350s than the A330NEO?

The 339 seemed like an obvious choice as a regional hauler if the 380s were cancelled and EK needed to avoid penalty. The 359 surprises me as I thought EK would be happy to see the 778 as their smallest long haul aircraft going forward.

Great news for Airbus to have another large order from a blue chip customer for the 339.
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Stitch
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:30 pm

fsabo wrote:
Is there a reason the T7000 can't be pushed to T1000 thrust levels?


Probably not, but RR has not made mention of any thrust bumps as of yet.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:31 pm

airzona11 wrote:
As others have mentioned, this is a pivot in EKs strategy. 778X was to be the smallest plane in the fleet, now it's the A330-900.


Well in theory the smallest would have been the 787-10. Now they will be going about 10% smaller with the A330-900.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:51 pm

The A339s will also come a couple of years earlier then the 787s were supposed to be delivered. I believe that the A330s are the replacement order for the canceled A380s. Bringing in these smaller capacity planes much earlier than originally planned. This strategy will be continued by adding the A350-900s for longer flights for which the 777X is too big. The 777X will now most likely be used both as a 77W and A380 replacement. Although I won't be surprised if the current A380s will stay a bit longer in their fleet than originally planned.

Emirates used the opportunity of the A380 cancellations to create a new fleet strategy. The 787-10 MOU was part of a previous strategy which included the now cancelled A380s. I don't think that Boeing will be too upset about this as they will most likely be compensated in an other way. Which could either be more 777X orders or something else like more military orders from the UAE.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:52 pm

I’m just curious to see how EK and EY net out for the manufacturers. Lots of moving pieces.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
visual8L
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:03 pm

Is there any significance to an A330-800neo being used in the rendering? Hard to imagine both Airbus and Emirates not vetting that out.
'There won't be a mntc glitch before every flight; there will be a flight after every mntc glitch however' - me
 
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Finn350
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:05 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
The 359 surprises me as I thought EK would be happy to see the 778 as their smallest long haul aircraft going forward.


The 778 is designed for niche missions (Ultra Long Haul) despite being the same size as the A359. In that sense the A359 is a logical choice.
 
airbazar
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:20 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Wow, death? decline? You do realize that this swap results in a fleet size increase and quite possibly a total seat increase?
30 A359's + 40 A339's is more than 39 A380's. Plus 150 77X's. How is this a decline? If anything it represents growth.
It's merely EK coming to the realization that to continue to expand they need smaller planes. How is this strategy good for everyone else around the world but bad for EK?


The 40 787s would have been in there instead of the A330s.[/quote]

40 787's or 40 A339's, same difference. Both have a similar number of seats. It's still an increase in both fleet size and seats.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:46 am

airbazar wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

Wow, death? decline? You do realize that this swap results in a fleet size increase and quite possibly a total seat increase?
30 A359's + 40 A339's is more than 39 A380's. Plus 150 77X's. How is this a decline? If anything it represents growth.
It's merely EK coming to the realization that to continue to expand they need smaller planes. How is this strategy good for everyone else around the world but bad for EK?


The 40 787s would have been in there instead of the A330s.


40 787's or 40 A339's, same difference. Both have a similar number of seats. It's still an increase in both fleet size and seats.[/quote]

-39 A380
-40 787

+30 A350
+40 A330

There is zero way that that swap is an increase in seats, let alone frames.
Last edited by PlanesNTrains on Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
masA380
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:50 am

A twist of fate for both A330neo and 78J.
 
JoeCanuck
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:23 am

I don't know why people keep on bringing up that there were any potential penalties involved in this deal. It would have been way worse for Airbus if EK had insisted on taking all of those 380's they ordered. Not only are they losing money now on every 380 that goes out the door...they would have lost even more money per plane as production rates which Airbus forecast, dropped lower and lower, well into next decade.

Instead, Airbus stops the bleeding and focuses on models that can actually make money and frees up time, energy, staff and resources to work on future products. EK breathes life into the 330 and pads the 350 orders.

Emirates gets a more modern, efficient and versatile fleet better able to adapt to changing market conditions.

RR is off the hook to pay compensation for another 200 or so engines that would never be up to spec.

No matter which way you look at it, everybody comes out ahead.

This is one of those rare occasions that really is win/win/win.

On a somewhat different note...for as much hate as the 330 gets, if it really was so terrible compared to the 787, Emirates simply wouldn't have bought it. Tim Clark wasn't willing to tolerate under spec engine performance on the 380's and he wouldn't tolerate buying another under performing aircraft when there was a viable alternative available. If they thought the 787 was significantly better than the 330, they would have turned their MOU into orders.

EK had all sorts of outs on the 380 order, (engine spec being one), and there is no way on the planet that he could possibly have been compelled to buy an aircraft that he doesn't want.
Last edited by JoeCanuck on Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
What the...?
 
aryonoco
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:40 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:

-39 A380
-40 787

+30 A350
+40 A330

There is zero way that that swap is an increase in seats, let alone frames.


The 787 was only ever a MoU. It was never a firm order.

In terms of firm orders, we have -39 A380, +40 A339, +30 A359. I don't think that's a reduction in seats.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:00 am

aryonoco wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:

-39 A380
-40 787

+30 A350
+40 A330

There is zero way that that swap is an increase in seats, let alone frames.


The 787 was only ever a MoU. It was never a firm order.

In terms of firm orders, we have -39 A380, +40 A339, +30 A359. I don't think that's a reduction in seats.


So to be clear, you think the 787 was not intenddd for their fleet? So the number of A330s matching identically with the number of 787s is just coincidence?

I’m not arguing that they don’t have more firm orders - I’m arguing that what was planned was more seats and frames than what will [apparently] be.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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Erebus
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:40 am

george77300 wrote:
As for the A350s I can understand that order more and makes a lot more sense for EK this time around, not so much for the A339.


Regarding the choice of the A330neo, the delivery time frames are 2021 for A330neo and 2024 for the A350. If EK were to order all 70 A350s for deliveries starting 2021, can they get such a large number of early term slots? I know EY cancelled a bunch but I'm not sure they were going to get them all within the next 3-4 years, and given how far well in advance Airbus understood their position, it is possible that some of them have been reallocated already. Perhaps the A330neo was offered in the near term for the lack of availability of A350s. Speculating, just throwing it out there...
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:45 am

So what is going to happen to the 787 and 779 order? I'm sure Boeing is blowing up the phone at EK.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:49 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
So what is going to happen to the 787 and 779 order? I'm sure Boeing is blowing up the phone at EK.


The 787 MoU (not order) will expire.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:53 am

Slug71 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
So what is going to happen to the 787 and 779 order? I'm sure Boeing is blowing up the phone at EK.


The 787 MoU (not order) will expire.


Oh ok. Did they actually order any 779 or was that just a letter of intent as well? I can see Boeong taking a walk over to UA headquarters with a nice deal for them to officially dump the A350 order after this blow.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:57 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
So what is going to happen to the 787 and 779 order? I'm sure Boeing is blowing up the phone at EK.


The 787 MoU (not order) will expire.


Oh ok. Did they actually order any 779 or was that just a letter of intent as well? I can see Boeong taking a walk over to UA headquarters with a nice deal for them to officially dump the A350 order after this blow.


The commitment for 150 777Xs was a form order.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
caljn
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Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:43 am

OA940 wrote:
I'd love to see an EK 787-10, but the 359 is superior in hot and high conditions. Plus it's more comfortable and offers more range, so they could switch routes like ATH-EWR during off season to it. A330neo is a weird choice, I wouldn't be surprised to see it go relatively early, even though I wish they can make it work.

Either way, even though it comes at the expense of the whale, I feel like it helps out both parties in the end. Plus it's a nice boost to the A330neo and A350 programs, even if it was a bit forced. Congratulations to both parties.




"Plus it is more comfortable..." Did you mean to write "quieter"? That is the typical charge when comparing models. Tossed about as conventional wisdom but sorry, it is a completely and utterly subjective assertion typically cited when grasping for some advantage.

Kind of like saying A aircraft have a plastic-y, throw away quality to them, a lack a sturdiness...an example of my subjective viewpoint.

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