Page 1 of 5

Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:11 am
by Tartarus

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:16 am
by SQ789
I guess EVZ will be the last A380.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:20 am
by ikolkyo
Welp I guess that’s curtains for the A380 and EK 787-10.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:20 am
by JustSomeDood
30 A359s and more importantly, 40 A330neos in exchange for 39 A380s is nearly the best outcome for Airbus given the circumstances.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:23 am
by phoenix123
Good move. Now I want to hear some news about the new narrow body and A350-2000.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:26 am
by Stitch
ikolkyo wrote:
Welp I guess that’s curtains for the A380 and EK 787-10.


Yes, I expect we will see the expiration of the 787-10 MoU and a 20 or more frame increase in their 777X order in the near future.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:28 am
by StudiodeKadent
I didn't expect that. The A330-900 is smaller than the 787-10 although it does have marginally more range. The A350-900 is roughly the 787-10's size and with a very large amount of range. I don't see these jets arriving at EK until they're at the new airport, given how slot-restricted DXB is. Maybe some will go to FlyDubai?

EK must have got a great deal on the A330-900s, because the 787-10 seemed much better for the EK business model.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:29 am
by Kindanew
Congratulations to Airbus!

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:29 am
by marcelh
So a 25 strong RR powered A380 fleet in the end.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:30 am
by Bricktop
phoenix123 wrote:
Good move. Now I want to hear some news about the new narrow body and A350-2000.

Yeah right. Come on Airbus, what have you done for me lately? Most of our friends in Europe aren't even awake yet. Leave them the chance to at least dance a few jigs before the the new wave of speculative threads start.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:30 am
by Planeflyer
Good deal for All involved. Sad day for the 380 but better to sell frames that make money.

And for ek they get more flexibility which they will need in the face of low oil prices.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:31 am
by c933103
Why would EK need A330neo?

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:32 am
by TTailedTiger
Bricktop wrote:
phoenix123 wrote:
Good move. Now I want to hear some news about the new narrow body and A350-2000.

Yeah right. Come on Airbus, what have you done for me lately? Most of our friends in Europe aren't even awake yet. Leave them the chance to at least dance a few jigs before the the new wave of speculative threads start.


I'd say they've already danced a jig because EK most assuredly got the 330neo for a song and dance. We shall see if they ever actually take them.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:33 am
by Bricktop
StudiodeKadent wrote:
I didn't expect that. The A330-900 is smaller than the 787-10 although it does have marginally more range. The A350-900 is roughly the 787-10's size and with a very large amount of range. I don't see these jets arriving at EK until they're at the new airport, given how slot-restricted DXB is. Maybe some will go to FlyDubai?

EK must have got a great deal on the A330-900s, because the 787-10 seemed much better for the EK business model.

It's an elegant face-save all around and a nice needed win for the A339. What the demise of the A388 means for EK's business model remains to be seen.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:34 am
by MrHMSH
Wow, I didn't expect the A330neo... at all! While I am very sad as an enthusiast to see the end of A380 production, this is a big boost for the A330neo and a nice little lift for the A350, eith the latter established at EK it opens up a lot of possibilities, regional A359s or A35Ks, or higher MTOW variants down the line if they want to open new ULH routes (perhaps the type of route the 77L opens now).

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:35 am
by Stitch
c933103 wrote:
Why would EK need A330neo?


They want a regional frame for 8-10 hour missions and now that they had to buy other Airbus product to compensate for the A380s they were cancelling, the A330-900 is the best frame Airbus offers for that mission. So Emirates will almost certainly let their 787-10 MoU expire now that the A330s (and A350 Regionals?) are coming and instead order a score or more 777-9s to address (some of) the traffic the cancelled A380s would have handled.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:35 am
by AlexBrewster03
c933103 wrote:
Why would EK need A330neo?

I’m assuming for their thinner routes. I’m definitely surprised by them ordering that, but oh well it’ll be interesting to see the cabin and how they utilize them

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:42 am
by LY777
So they are ordering the oldish A330Neo...
A real downgrade compared to the 787-10...


Sad for the A380 :(

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:42 am
by StudiodeKadent
Bricktop wrote:
It's an elegant face-save all around and a nice needed win for the A339. What the demise of the A388 means for EK's business model remains to be seen.


Its certainly good for the A339.

I wouldn't call it elegant though. It adds two new types to the fleet. But maybe Emirates actually needed the A350-900 for longer, thinner routes.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:44 am
by Slug71
c933103 wrote:
Why would EK need A330neo?


I lieu of the 787s. The A359s will probably supplement the capacity and replace the oldest 777s. Or used for rotation.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:45 am
by seahawk
c933103 wrote:
Why would EK need A330neo?


Because those were the price to pay to get rid of the A380s. Based on pure performance and usefulness EK did opt for the 787 as can be seen by the 787 MOU.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:46 am
by Veigar
I am assuming those A330-900 NEO's were the opportunity cost of cancelling so many A380s without paying stupidly large fees.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:48 am
by Slug71
Stitch wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Welp I guess that’s curtains for the A380 and EK 787-10.


Yes, I expect we will see the expiration of the 787-10 MoU and a 20 or more frame increase in their 777X order in the near future.


I dont think they'll order more 777X. Most of the A380s wont be going anywhere soon. With the Ultrafan coming in 2025, I think theres a good chance we could see EK being the launch customer for the A350-2000.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:50 am
by MrHMSH
seahawk wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Why would EK need A330neo?


Because those were the price to pay to get rid of the A380s. Based on pure performance and usefulness EK did opt for the 787 as can be seen by the 787 MOU.


My thoughts are with you at this difficult time, seahawk.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:53 am
by IslandRob
MrHMSH wrote:
...this is a big boost for the A330neo and a nice little lift for the A350...


For now, at least. As both Airbus and Boeing have learned all too well, EK can be fickle. -ir

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:01 am
by sibibom
Bricktop wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
I didn't expect that. The A330-900 is smaller than the 787-10 although it does have marginally more range. The A350-900 is roughly the 787-10's size and with a very large amount of range. I don't see these jets arriving at EK until they're at the new airport, given how slot-restricted DXB is. Maybe some will go to FlyDubai?

EK must have got a great deal on the A330-900s, because the 787-10 seemed much better for the EK business model.

It's an elegant face-save all around and a nice needed win for the A339. What the demise of the A388 means for EK's business model remains to be seen.


The business model as I see is intact, just downsized. Obviously, the effect will only be seen in 5-10 years when A380 really start leaving the fleet. The seat proportions between A380-B777 and B777X-A359/339 are almost similar. They will make the connecting traffic model work albeit on a smaller scale, less risk and less reward.

They would be at their peak around 2020, the year of the EXPO and gradually contract to reflect reality.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:02 am
by 817Dreamliiner
Well I guess that's that for their 787-10 MOU. Oh well, would've been nice to have seen it firmed up. I guess my Emirates 787-10 model will just be a reminder of what it could've been. Good order boost for the A330neo.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:05 am
by Finn350
This is also end of the EK two frame (777 and A380) long term fleet strategy and they will instead have at least 4 frame types (A330, A350, A380, 777). Well I guess they needed to downsize anyway, and would have gotten 787 if A380 were not cancelled.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:05 am
by StudiodeKadent
sibibom wrote:
The business model as I see is intact, just downsized.


But a critical component of the business model is leveraging size and fleet simplicity so as to have economies of scale and low costs. We're seeing the fleet grow more complex and the size of the jets shrink. This is fundamentally a change in the business model.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:05 am
by Aviation737
Sad I wanted to see emirates in 787

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:08 am
by JustSomeDood
Projected delivery timings for these frames would be something to watch, DXB is crowded as it is and DWC has faced many delays, I don't see the bulk of them getting delivered until well into the 2020s. Given EK's past actions, it would be a serious test of how firm these orders actually are.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:12 am
by sibibom
StudiodeKadent wrote:
sibibom wrote:
The business model as I see is intact, just downsized.


But a critical component of the business model is leveraging size and fleet simplicity so as to have economies of scale and low costs. We're seeing the fleet grow more complex and the size of the jets shrink. This is fundamentally a change in the business model.


Sadly fleet economics changed. In 2005, bigger planes were more efficient on a per-seat basis, today not so much the case. EK atleast stopped the risk of EY/AUH. Dubai by itself and enough traffic to manage all these planes.

I guess the concept Mega-connecting hubs will wane over time, until....A380neo....ultra-fan....probably never.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:12 am
by MrHMSH
Some new information from EK's own press release:

- Deliveries of the A330neo will start in 2021, A350 from 2024.
- The A330neo will be used for regional destinations.
- The A350s will be used to 'supplement Emirates’ long-haul operations, providing the carrier with added flexibility in terms of capacity deployment on 8 to 12 hour missions from its Dubai hub.'

http://www.emirates.com/media-centre/em ... -a350-900s

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:14 am
by Slug71
JustSomeDood wrote:
Projected delivery timings for these frames would be something to watch, DXB is crowded as it is and DWC has faced many delays, I don't see the bulk of them getting delivered until well into the 2020s. Given EK's past actions, it would be a serious test of how firm these orders actually are.


There will definitely be some heavy cancellation penalties attached to this order. Even RR probably gave EK a good deal on engines in lieu of the T900 compensation.
EK would be the big loser on that go-around.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:14 am
by IslandRob
seahawk wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Why would EK need A330neo?


Because those were the price to pay to get rid of the A380s. Based on pure performance and usefulness EK did opt for the 787 as can be seen by the 787 MOU.


Best I can figure, EK must have been more desperate to cancel the A380 order than Airbus, or, in any event, Airbus had the upper hand in the negotiations. Otherwise, it's hard to understand why EK would choose the A330Neo over the 78X. Airbus is becoming quite accomplished at arm twisting airlines into taking aircraft they don't really want. Just ask NH. -ir

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:19 am
by MartijnNL
LY777 wrote:
So they are ordering the oldish A330Neo...
A real downgrade compared to the 787-10...

The 2-4-2 economy seating of the A330 is actually an upgrade for passengers compared to the 3-3-3 of the Boeing 787.

LY777 wrote:
Sad for the A380 :(

Indeed.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:21 am
by IAmGaroott
So will older-build EK A380s be leaving the fleet in the near future? Also, will any change come to their 777-2/300 fleets in the next decade?

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:23 am
by StudiodeKadent
sibibom wrote:

Sadly fleet economics changed. In 2005, bigger planes were more efficient on a per-seat basis, today not so much the case.


Is that true? Because from what I've seen, so long as you hold the generation of aircraft constant, bigger planes are typically lower CASM.

By "hold the generation of aircraft constant" I mean 787s and A350s, and we can expect in descending-CASM-order for it to be 788, 789, A359, 78J, A35K. Presumably the A330-900 would be worse than the 789 (given the A339 is previous-generation-tech but with similar capacity to the 789).

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:24 am
by flee
Finn350 wrote:
This is also end of the EK two frame (777 and A380) long term fleet strategy and they will instead have at least 4 frame types (A330, A350, A380, 777). Well I guess they needed to downsize anyway, and would have gotten 787 if A380 were not cancelled.

From the pilot training point of view, the A330/350/380 progression requires very little retraining and I believe the pilot ratings don't need to change either.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:25 am
by seahawk
IslandRob wrote:
seahawk wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Why would EK need A330neo?


Because those were the price to pay to get rid of the A380s. Based on pure performance and usefulness EK did opt for the 787 as can be seen by the 787 MOU.


Best I can figure, EK must have been more desperate to cancel the A380 order than Airbus, or, in any event, Airbus had the upper hand in the negotiations. Otherwise, it's hard to understand why EK would choose the A330Neo over the 78X. Airbus is becoming quite accomplished at arm twisting airlines into taking aircraft they don't really want. Just ask NH. -ir


It is not arm twisting it is finding a deal acceptable for both sides. And if you cancel the A380s and plan for a slowly shrinking fleet of A380s to the 2030ies it effects your remaining fleet as well.

If the original plan was A380 - 777-9 - 787-1000 - the new plan might be fewer A380s - more 777-9 - A359 - A339 - which looks more flexible to me and also considers the problems of the ME3 and the not unlimited traffic growths for them. I think EK and Airbus had similar needs and spoke openly about the future of the A380s, with both agreeing to be unable to invest into the A380.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:25 am
by sibibom
IAmGaroott wrote:
So will older-build EK A380s be leaving the fleet in the near future? Also, will any change come to their 777-2/300 fleets in the next decade?


Pretty much most of their fleet leave around the 12 year mark, unless fully owned. After 2020EXPO the bigger planes will definetely start leaving as leases end or used up all the available flight cycles according to lease (one of the perils of abusing longer range planes on 1-4 hour routes). Newer smaller planes take their place.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:29 am
by IAmGaroott
sibibom wrote:
IAmGaroott wrote:
So will older-build EK A380s be leaving the fleet in the near future? Also, will any change come to their 777-2/300 fleets in the next decade?


Pretty much most of their fleet leave around the 12 year mark, unless fully owned. After 2020EXPO the bigger planes will definetely start leaving as leases end or used up all the available flight cycles according to lease (one of the perils of abusing longer range planes on 1-4 hour routes). Newer smaller planes take their place.


I wonder how this will affect expansion at DXB :scratchchin:

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:32 am
by ewt340
StudiodeKadent wrote:
I didn't expect that. The A330-900 is smaller than the 787-10 although it does have marginally more range. The A350-900 is roughly the 787-10's size and with a very large amount of range. I don't see these jets arriving at EK until they're at the new airport, given how slot-restricted DXB is. Maybe some will go to FlyDubai?

EK must have got a great deal on the A330-900s, because the 787-10 seemed much better for the EK business model.


EK is not the only airlines that got great deal on A330-900neo. All airlines did since it's a cheap update on the old A330.

One of the problem with B787-10 is the fact that it can't do heavy duties operation like A350-900. But it's too big for smaller secondary cities around Middle East, Eastern Europe or African cities. A330-900neo carry 30-40 less passengers compared to B787-10. This give them a great flexibility between the smaller market.
Commonality between A330-900neo and A350-900 are great, so this isn't much of a problem for EK to operate on daily basis.

If they went with B787-10, B777X and A380. They would ended up with 2 aircraft family with Massive capacity and tons of range. And then large aircraft with little range. So Thin-long routes and frequencies would suffer greatly.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:33 am
by n7371f
Congratulations for shutting down an aircraft line that will end up losing many more billions? Ok.

Kindanew wrote:
Congratulations to Airbus!

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:35 am
by PlanesNTrains
ewt340 wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
I didn't expect that. The A330-900 is smaller than the 787-10 although it does have marginally more range. The A350-900 is roughly the 787-10's size and with a very large amount of range. I don't see these jets arriving at EK until they're at the new airport, given how slot-restricted DXB is. Maybe some will go to FlyDubai?

EK must have got a great deal on the A330-900s, because the 787-10 seemed much better for the EK business model.


EK is not the only airlines that got great deal on A330-900neo. All airlines did since it's a cheap update on the old A330.

One of the problem with B787-10 is the fact that it can't do heavy duties operation like A350-900. But it's too big for smaller secondary cities around Middle East, Eastern Europe or African cities. A330-900neo carry 30-40 less passengers compared to B787-10. This give them a great flexibility between the smaller market.
Commonality between A330-900neo and A350-900 are great, so this isn't much of a problem for EK to operate on daily basis.

If they went with B787-10, B777X and A380. They would ended up with 2 aircraft family with Massive capacity and tons of range. And then large aircraft with little range. So Thin-long routes and frequencies would suffer greatly.


EK has said they might take some 787-9s so it wasn’t just the -10 that was on the table.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:42 am
by StudiodeKadent
PlanesNTrains wrote:
EK has said they might take some 787-9s so it wasn’t just the -10 that was on the table.


That's a very good point. Yet given how close the 787-9 and -10 are in commonality terms, it does make the A330neo/A350-900 look less elegant in comparison.

But the A330neo/A350-900 will have marginally better PaxEx in economy.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:43 am
by aviationaware
flee wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
This is also end of the EK two frame (777 and A380) long term fleet strategy and they will instead have at least 4 frame types (A330, A350, A380, 777). Well I guess they needed to downsize anyway, and would have gotten 787 if A380 were not cancelled.

From the pilot training point of view, the A330/350/380 progression requires very little retraining and I believe the pilot ratings don't need to change either.


Pilot retraining costs are always significantly overestimated on this forum. Those costs are a mere footnote in this kind of decisions.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:45 am
by PlanesNTrains
StudiodeKadent wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
EK has said they might take some 787-9s so it wasn’t just the -10 that was on the table.


That's a very good point. Yet given how close the 787-9 and -10 are in commonality terms, it does make the A330neo/A350-900 look less elegant in comparison.

But the A330neo/A350-900 will have marginally better PaxEx in economy.


I’m personally surprised the A330 was part of the deal, but I guess it makes sense and they’ll be fine with the duo.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:46 am
by JoeCanuck
LY777 wrote:
So they are ordering the oldish A330Neo...
A real downgrade compared to the 787-10...


Sad for the A380 :(


Well...they also have the oldish 77X on order.

MrHMSH wrote:
Some new information from EK's own press release:

- Deliveries of the A330neo will start in 2021, A350 from 2024.
- The A330neo will be used for regional destinations.
- The A350s will be used to 'supplement Emirates’ long-haul operations, providing the carrier with added flexibility in terms of capacity deployment on 8 to 12 hour missions from its Dubai hub.'

http://www.emirates.com/media-centre/em ... -a350-900s


Interesting all around. Airbus gets to gracefully shut down the money losing 380 line and will free up a bunch of resources for production line expansions and future models. The 350 order book gets padded a bit and the 330 is thrown a lifeline.

EK gets a more versatile, efficient fleet and probably saves some money in the bargain.

I'm surprised by a couple of things. I really didn't think they'd go for the 330, just to keep their fleet relatively simple. But I guess if you're willing to have a 3 model fleet...it isn't too much of a jump to 4.

I'm also surprised that 350 deliveries won't start until 2024. I now agree with those who suggested that EK might end up getting the 350neo, since RR is claiming they'll have the Ultrafan ready by 2025. Waiting another year won't be a huge deal...as long as it's on time.

Kudos to Airbus and EK for making a respectable omelette out of broken eggs.

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:01 am
by qf789
A reminder to debate the topic without the unnecessary flamebait or name calling. This includes referring to others as haters or fanboys. All users are required to respect other users whether you agree or not. Those who do not follow the rules as set out and are found to be provoking others will result in posts being deleted. Those who continue to violate the rules may find themselves on the end of a warning and/or ban