Strato2
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:13 pm

Revelation wrote:
The A350 is excellent but can't do 10x in Y with industry standard levels of "comfort"


What industry standard levels? If we go down that path I can as well say that no Boeing aircraft except 9-ab 777's are industry standard.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:15 pm

Revelation wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
It will be interesting (or maybe not) to see how airlines such as LH, AF, BA, SQ and KE will replace their A380‘s at the beginning of the 2030ies.

B779 seems to be the logical choice.

Other (rather exotic) options could be:
B748i, especially in case of LH and KE, but will they be still available?
Second-hand A380‘s

There still a demand for VLA, call it a niche, but it’s definitely there.

The real question is can one make a VLA product better than 779 and make a profit selling it?

Well, it’s less than 24 hours since I started the engine of my car and tried to hear some rock music on my way to work but instead the first thing that I heard today was .... no, not „happy Valentines Day, my dear N14AZ“.... that Airbus cancels the A380-programme... under that impression I would definitely say...

hmmmmmm



:scratchchin:


... still thinking...


:scratchchin:


Nope. :-/

Well at least not until the beginning of the 2030ies. So airlines such as BA, AF, SQ etc. will have no other choice than deploying B77X‘s or whatever Airbus can offer instead of their aging A380‘s, correct me if I am wrong.
 
sgbroimp
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:21 pm

So it is fair to say that Boeing's estimates (way back) for the size of the VLA market were right(er) and Airbus's were wrong(er), correct? And how much of a handicap was it that the 380 has no freighter version?
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:37 pm

I think the A380 cancellation gives Boeing the mental space to pull the plug on the 747 as well in a few years.

It's becoming pretty obvious that the 777-8/9 may not sell more than a few hundred more frames (including possible frieghters) due to potential growth versions of A350 and 787.

I could see Boeing terminating 747 and launching a 778/9 based Freighter or Freighter(s) to sustain the 777 line long-term. There is no need to keep two big Widebodies in production for the long term at low rates. The 747 factory space could be used for NMA.

Given the weight disadvantage of the 777x for passenger service further developments of this model seem unwise.

Whereas a lot more competitive position would be growth Versions of the 787 and do to the 350 what the 350 will potentially due to the 777x.

The 787 Wing is supposedly good for 280T, it just needs an gear upgrade and a bump in MTOW to allow longer versions. Maybe an extension of the wing as well if the structure can support this. Hopefully not a whole new wing as that could be very marginal Aerodynamic gains.

Apparently the 787 Fuselage (I'm assuming the 781 as well) is good for 200K in service hours due to the stiffness of it's fuselage - this maybe indicates a significant stretch is possible. Combine that with NEO geared engines and it takes the 787 into A351/2 area at a lot lower weight (280T).
Last edited by morrisond on Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:38 pm

Yes aviation is growing, the big change is smaller aircraft now have the useful range of a 747, for a period in the 90's it was the only one, with deliveries averaging around 40 per year, 2 years peaking at 70 per year. In the 90's the MD-11 peaked at 40 deliveries, averaged around 20. The A340 peaked at 33 and averaged 20 per year. That is like 80 to 100 in the larger plane segment per year.

By 2010 the B747 was like 15 per year, the B777 was at 80+ per bear, the B787 was still not there but 5 year later was 100+, the A340 was on the way out with just 5, The A380 was almost 20, and the 350 was about to start production. So exceeding 100 in the large segment, by 2014 it was approaching 200 per year.

My point is the 2010 to current period there was a large increase in deliveries in this range, probably saturating the market. It is more likely that this market will tone done in the next decade as there will be too many of the largest planes.

Meanwhile the middle of the market has a lot of production below 757 range & passenger capacity, with a large gap where the B767 was up to the 330 & 787 planes. it seems to be the most promising spot. Soon both B and A will be attacking that segment.

The problem of range in Airliners has been solved since 2000, in a decade we will see what we call a NB now doing 5 to 6K routes.
 
gsg013
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:48 pm

The one airline that always loves the big planes and makes them work economically where many other airlines cannot is Lufthansa... I honestly do see potential for LH to add more 747-8i's in the coming years. If anyone has any understanding on how LH makes the economics of the 4-holers work while others don't please explain... I chalk it up to German Engineering!!
 
MileHFL400
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:55 pm

gsg013 wrote:
The one airline that always loves the big planes and makes them work economically where many other airlines cannot is Lufthansa... I honestly do see potential for LH to add more 747-8i's in the coming years. If anyone has any understanding on how LH makes the economics of the 4-holers work while others don't please explain... I chalk it up to German Engineering!!


Or more likely more 777X sized planes in the next decade.
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
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africawings
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:21 pm

Quoting DarthLobster: "Can’t have a monopoly when there’s no market. The 747-8i has sold poorly and the A380 is now on its death bed. There is no market for the VLA."

There is no market now for VLA, but things change. Remember, nobody wanted the 757 at one point, so it was canceled; but airlines now hunger for its performance. I can see a tweaked 747-8-ER (or SP) with less passengers (say about 350) more range (say 10,500 miles for Project Sunrise), coming into its own. The 4 engine 747-8 is faster than the 779- at Mach .86 or higher and, can carry more dense payload than the 779 and it doesn't need to worry about ETOP restrictions, so more direct, faster routings on ULR flights. Yes, I do see a future for the 747-8 (SP) now that the A380 is dead.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:52 pm

Strato2 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The A350 is excellent but can't do 10x in Y with industry standard levels of "comfort"


What industry standard levels? If we go down that path I can as well say that no Boeing aircraft except 9-ab 777's are industry standard.

Like it or not, almost all operators have moved to 10x 77W/L/E and the extra contoured 77X walls will lock that in going forward.

This becomes similar to the Y class that has been used in the 747s for decades now.

I don't think we'll see mainstream operators try to match 10x on A350, only ULCCs.
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B764er
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:02 pm

The 747 4 engines make it a bit much for airlines used to the same performance with 2 engines. I think a 777-10x is now a possibility, with Airbus matching it with a new VLA twin, which I've named "A370."
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:49 pm

Revelation wrote:
I think people in Seattle and Cincinnati may see this threat coming.

They probably can't head it off at the pass but they know the threat is existential (at least for that segment of the market) and may have to make extraordinary efforts to remain viable.

Or they may decide the VLA sector has as much investment as it can bear, and double down on NMA, NSA, etc.


Assuming the A350NEO actually is coming circa 2025, I'm not sure they did foresee this seven years ago when they launched the 777X.
Even today, Boeing apparently doubts the viability of Ultrafan circa 2025 (thus the LEAP 1.5 on NMA).

I have a larger thought that hasn't fully coalesced but this whole dynamic relates to the "No Moonshots" obsession.
The 777X had a cleansheet timeframe yet is clearly not futureproof to a degree sufficient to ensure a successful program.
By settling for a cloudshot, Boeing might have ensured that it loses less money than a failed moonshot, rather than actually making any money.
I see the same dynamic playing out with a conservative NMA that is not future proof either.

I hope you are right that "extraordinary efforts" are being mooted in Chicago, Seattle, and Cincinnati right now.
There is a realistic chance that Airbus will soon marginalize the 737MAX (A220 stretch), compete effectively against any NMA (thereby killing its business case), and send the 777X to an early grave.
That leaves Boeing with only 787. Not a bad "only" but still...

Hopefully Boeing's orientation will shift from "NO MORE MOONSHOTS" to "Only moonshots work, but we can't miss."
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:19 pm

They could, make it two engined with nearly the same capacity and call it a 777-8 or 777-9.

Wait, they did that.


Thank you for the snarky reply. However, my questions still stand. Existing 747 customers may wish to top off their fleets for the right combination of performance improvements, not to mention cut rate pricing. The labor, parts and maintenance pipelines are already there. But, it would probably take a lot to make it worthwhile, but how much? Would Boeing even want to spend the money there? Would there be enough ROI? That was where I was going with my query.

Thank you.

Bob
 
747megatop
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:30 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
Yes I know this sector of the market is small and shrinking but now that Airbus has announced an end to the A380 production does this mean stronger prospects for the 747-8 and 777X?

The days of the 747-8 are numbered. Question is; can B777F, A330F etc. can do the same job as a 747F? I think the clearest advantage that the 747F offers right now is that it has a nose door that can swing up and out of the way; with the cockpit out of the way sitting on top..it can easily gulp large cargo. Can other twin jet freighters offer similar out of the factory capability without costly post factory retrofits and certification? If the answer is yes, then the days of the 747F might be numbered as well?
 
deltadc9
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:30 pm

clipperlondon wrote:
FatCat wrote:
New airplanes market is funny.
Ten years ago everyone wanted the A380 and a new version of the B747.
So both A and B developed those two planes. One from scratch, with an investment so big A could be gone bankrupt, thankfully A320Neo family and A350 keeped them with the head out of the water. Also B made big investments on the -8i and -8F versions of the Queen.
Both planes are way far from being profitable, maybe only the B748 is, but the A380, with less units produced than the A340 (all versions) is far from breaking even, as many experts say.

Now everyone wants a small plane with huge range, a thing we've seen in 1983 and was named the Boeing 757, the ugly duckling that eventually became a beautiful swan, so A and B are developing the A321XLR and the B73M with trans-atlantic capabilities, and the VLA era is over, but in very busy airports like JFK, LHR, ATL, DXB & Co. Companies are having big troubles finding free slots, so indeed they will need a VLA to maximize capacities on the most busy routes, so the VLA era is not over?
The new 777s will always be 777s, so even if a 779 will have optimized cabin spaces ( tuna can style ) cannot have the capacity of an A380 or a B748, so what will the Major Companies buy, when the last A380 and the last B748 will be stored? They will need another VLA...


Boeing 757 'Ugly Duckling'? How can you say that? It's still one of the most beautiful airliners ever built, and I'm sure many on this forum will agree with me.

Not only beautiful, but a total hot rod
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douwd20
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:39 pm

Boeing's position has been the VLA market is small and shrinking. This is why they did not pour billions to produce an A380 competitor clean sheet model. This has been consistent in their market forecast for at least 20 years.
 
redflyer
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:47 pm

FatCat wrote:
New airplanes market is funny. So both A and B developed those two planes. One from scratch, with an investment so big A could be gone bankrupt, thankfully A320Neo family and A350 keeped them with the head out of the water.

Don't forget the government subsidies Airbus benefited from, which helped them keep their head out of the water.

Momo1435 wrote:
Boeing has said the 747-8I is still open for BBJ orders, but I doubt that they will keep offering it for too long from now.

I've read this before on other threads. Not sure I understand the logic. Both planes are made on the same assembly line, and using the same tooling. As long as the 8F is in production, why would Boeing deny a sale for the 8i if anyone wants a copy or two?

morrisond wrote:
I think the A380 cancellation gives Boeing the mental space to pull the plug on the 747 as well in a few years.

That implies that the only reason Boeing continued to build the 747 was to put pricing pressure on the A380. They didn't build the 748 for that purpose, they built it because they got duped into drinking the same Koolaid Airbus was and thought there might be a VLA market larger than Boeing originally estimated (albeit, not as large as Airbus was hallucinating about). And Boeing will pull the plug on the 748 when they can no longer make them at a production rate that's profitable - in other words, when the market demand dries up.
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iamlucky13
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:49 pm

Strato2 wrote:
Miquel787 wrote:
like the A380 destroyed the 747...


It did. The last EVER passenger delivery of a 747 was almost two years ago. With 36 sold to airlines the A380 outsold the 747-8i 7 to 1.


While the A380 was a part of it, I've always taken the 777, and then later 777X and A350 as even bigger factors holding back 747-8i orders.

morrisond wrote:
It's becoming pretty obvious that the 777-8/9 may not sell more than a few hundred more frames (including possible frieghters) due to potential growth versions of A350 and 787.


I don't see this as obvious. The plane hasn't even flown yet, and orders are slow for both of it's closest peers, as well. Eventually the widebody glut is going to dissipate due to retirements of remaining 747's and older 777's and market growth. I'm not expecting ~1700 sales like the legacy 777 due to the A350 and 787 competition, but a few hundred more than the current 326 seems like the most pessimistic credible scenario (I don't dismiss it entirely), rather than the obvious scenario.
 
tjh8402
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:52 pm

Let me preface that I absolutely do not in any way expect this to happen. This is pure speculation. We know BA likes their high J 744s, especially on the LHR-JFK route. Allegedly one challenge with the A380 is that it can’t fit at BAs JFK terminal. Does a 748? Does a 748 offer any meaningful RASM advantages over a 779 or A35k in a high J configuration that would offset its higher operating costs? I know 2/3 748 seating arrangements are relatively premium heavy so something about the plane suits that configuration. Again, don’t expect BA to be interested and I’m sure Boeing would much rather sell them a 779, just wondering in an alternate reality how a 748 compares to the 779 and A35k on a premium heavy route.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:53 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
Assuming the A350NEO actually is coming circa 2025, I'm not sure they did foresee this seven years ago when they launched the 777X.

I'm pretty sure the Advance -> Ultrafan road map was around back then. Clearly they had to have some inkling about what RR's capacity to compete would be going forward.

Matt6461 wrote:
Even today, Boeing apparently doubts the viability of Ultrafan circa 2025 (thus the LEAP 1.5 on NMA).

Yes, I sense a lot of risk aversion even though NMA may need a better engine than LEAP 1.5. Clearly the 'Package C' problem didn't help RR's image or its financial capacity.

Matt6461 wrote:
I have a larger thought that hasn't fully coalesced but this whole dynamic relates to the "No Moonshots" obsession.
The 777X had a cleansheet timeframe yet is clearly not futureproof to a degree sufficient to ensure a successful program.
By settling for a cloudshot, Boeing might have ensured that it loses less money than a failed moonshot, rather than actually making any money.
I see the same dynamic playing out with a conservative NMA that is not future proof either.

I hope you are right that "extraordinary efforts" are being mooted in Chicago, Seattle, and Cincinnati right now.
There is a realistic chance that Airbus will soon marginalize the 737MAX (A220 stretch), compete effectively against any NMA (thereby killing its business case), and send the 777X to an early grave.
That leaves Boeing with only 787. Not a bad "only" but still...

Hopefully Boeing's orientation will shift from "NO MORE MOONSHOTS" to "Only moonshots work, but we can't miss."

I think Boeing as a company was suffering 787 PTSD syndrome when the 77X was being mooted.

There was no enthusiasm to bet big on Y3 so 77X is what we got.

I think NMA's problem truly is a narrow market segment that will be challenged above and below by the competitor.

And of course replacing the 737 will be the gamble of a generation.

GE's financial challenges also weigh heavily.

It seems that NSA is mandatory, moon shot or not.

And if the theory that NMA is a necessary precursor for NSA is true, we may see it go to market too.

It's going to be hard to see any more money being invested in 777X/VLA, which is why I wrote they may decide they've put all they are going to put into that market.

I see the risk of this being a half measure, but the decision to not make it a full measure was made when 77X was launched and just like A380 getting it wrong has consequences.
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emuwarveteran
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:55 pm

N14AZ wrote:
It will be interesting (or maybe not) to see how airlines such as LH, AF, BA, SQ and KE will replace their A380‘s at the beginning of the 2030ies.

B779 seems to be the logical choice.

Other (rather exotic) options could be:
B748i, especially in case of LH and KE, but will they be still available?
Second-hand A380‘s

There still a demand for VLA, call it a niche, but it’s definitely there.


you can't really talk about that yet, there's probably going to be quite a few new planes (or at least new models of existing planes) by then, but the replacements will most likely be long-range twinjets. it's sad to say but the era of luxury VLA like the 747 and A380 is ending.
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texl1649
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:02 pm

The A380 simply was an exercise in scale/pride. It had no real revolutionary advances in engine tech, layout, or certainly wing (aspect ratio). The configuration lent itself poorly even to belly freight or a freighter option. It was just not well conceived as a commercial project, especially comparing operating costs/disadvantages vs. maturing/emerging twins. Without EK it obviously would have been scrapped a decade ago, but ego for ego it matched up well for the ME3. Will LH and Korean operate their 748’s longer than A380?
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:09 pm

redflyer wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
Boeing has said the 747-8I is still open for BBJ orders, but I doubt that they will keep offering it for too long from now.

I've read this before on other threads. Not sure I understand the logic. Both planes are made on the same assembly line, and using the same tooling. As long as the 8F is in production, why would Boeing deny a sale for the 8i if anyone wants a copy or two?

Because as the production of the 747-8I has practically ended it will cost money to restart the specific passenger production, also for suppliers. And with the 777X also needing more orders it makes more economical sense to steer those customers to that plane. And it keeps the production slots open for freighters which usually generate higher margins. Are easier to be placed at another airline if an order falls through. The Transaero order might have been the nail in the coffin for the 747-8I. No major airline is going to order any, that window of opportunity has long passed. So it's only small airlines, and there are not that many of those that can operate such a large plane and make money. Boeing will even be more likely to direct such customers to the leasing companies with the 787s on order then to risk any white tails from slow selling programs. And yes the 777X is also slow selling, the numbers might be good, it has a strong customer base. But it's still a small base, with customers that are not likely to pick up some left overs from a failed overambitious airline.

With Boeing launching the 777X BBJ recently they will also be much more eager to sell this new product to it's very small customers base instead of the 747-8I BBJ. Now that Airbus is stopping the A380 production I can see Boeing announcing that the 747-8 production is going only freighter in the very near future.
 
estorilm
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:09 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
Yes I know this sector of the market is small and shrinking but now that Airbus has announced an end to the A380 production does this mean stronger prospects for the 747-8 and 777X?

ABSOLUTELY not, in fact on the contrary - Boeing may feel far more comfortable eliminating the passenger variant of the 747-8 now. It'll free up random resources and overhead in various areas, which will be helpful given what Airbus is about free up in their various facilities and staff.

As far as sales go, IIRC the A380 has more recent sales than the 747-8i by like 5 years? I think it's been almost 8 years since a single -8i was sold.

The bottom line is that the ground-up A380 was a more efficient plane than the 747, even with it's -800 body and -900 wing. Furthermore the 777X can do a lot of what the -8i can do.

Basically anyone NEEDING a true VLA would have bought the A380 by now, anyone willing to compromise on a -8i with (clearly) no future, in a world where every single 4-holer pax model is cursed, will go for the 777X. In fact I think in most metrics, the 777X actually makes the -8i look rather pointless.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:12 pm

Revelation wrote:

It's going to be hard to see any more money being invested in 777X/VLA, which is why I wrote they may decide they've put all they are going to put into that market.

I see the risk of this being a half measure, but the decision to not make it a full measure was made when 77X was launched and just like A380 getting it wrong has consequences.


I would agree. They didn't go far enough on the 777x. At an 352T takeoff weight they should have been able to do a new 11W Oval Carbon Fuselage with similar range giving great efficiency per seat that would be hard to match with a 9W fuselage.

Or taken the same money they are spending on 777x and made an XL version of the 787 to replace the 777, it would have been a lot lighter than the 777x with similar capabilities.
 
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DL757NYC
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:25 pm

FlyRow wrote:
Yeah the 747-8 Will sell in hundreds now...


I can see the 747-8 take the same route the 767 did. Nobody wanted it then eventually orders started to role in. If the line can stay around long enough for the dedicated 747 freighters to age the 747-8 is the only game in town.
 
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DL757NYC
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:28 pm

They do but it won’t translate to 747-8i orders. I would consider the 777-9 a VLA. It can carry 400+passengers just like the 747
 
steeler83
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:31 pm

DarthLobster wrote:
Can’t have a monopoly when there’s no market. The 747-8i has sold poorly and the A380 is now on its death bed. There is no market for the VLA.

And airlines that bought the 748 also ordered a fleet of A380s. Many other foreign airlines as well as UA and DL which had fairly large 747 fleets phased them out in favor of the 777 A350 equipment. They're just as big and are more fuel efficient (2 engines vs. 4 engines for the same range). Given that, the 747/A380 has no benefit. It's a shame to see these birds end production, but with the exception of the 748-F there's no use for them anymore.
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airlineworker
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:47 pm

With the A380 out of the way, would Boeing consider upgrades to the 747-8? Perhaps extending the hump to the full length of the fuselage. Are there newer engines that would reduce fuel consumption, perhaps tweaking the wing and more composites? Just day dreaming.
 
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FlyRow
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:53 pm

DL757NYC wrote:
FlyRow wrote:
Yeah the 747-8 Will sell in hundreds now...


I can see the 747-8 take the same route the 767 did. Nobody wanted it then eventually orders started to role in. If the line can stay around long enough for the dedicated 747 freighters to age the 747-8 is the only game in town.


As soon as oil prices will go up, quads will be gone. The 747-8F might have a little live in them, but for passengers it's gone.
The 767 was a very good niche plane, very capable with a good range during a period of growth, there wasn't much alternative then.
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Miquel787
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:38 am

Strato2 wrote:
Miquel787 wrote:
like the A380 destroyed the 747...


It did. The last EVER passenger delivery of a 747 was almost two years ago. With 36 sold to airlines the A380 outsold the 747-8i 7 to 1.

No it didn.t....It didn.t destroy the 747 programm...Outselling is true but that.s completely different from destroying a plane.The 747 will likely being produced after 2021....As a freighter.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:52 am

PatrickZ80 wrote:
I don't think so. There's little demand for VLAs anyway and the 777 can hardly be called that. Besides that, the A350 is more or less equally as big as the 777 so there's still competition on that size.


If the 744 is a VLA, them the 779X is one too, because they are about the same capacity. The A350 has one less seat per row in economy. This becomes a limitation on capacity as planes approach the 80m limit on length. Now that we know that there will never be an A380-900 or A380-1000 that could possibly exceed the 80m box dimensions, there is even less reason to relax that restriction. The Airbus choice of a 9-abreast 18" seating arrangement on the A350 in order to not a step on the A380's turf, means that Boeing will have a capacity advantage with the 777X if they choose to exercise it.
 
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RWA380
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:07 am

deltadc9 wrote:
clipperlondon wrote:
FatCat wrote:
New airplanes market is funny.
Ten years ago everyone wanted the A380 and a new version of the B747.
So both A and B developed those two planes. One from scratch, with an investment so big A could be gone bankrupt, thankfully A320Neo family and A350 keeped them with the head out of the water. Also B made big investments on the -8i and -8F versions of the Queen.
Both planes are way far from being profitable, maybe only the B748 is, but the A380, with less units produced than the A340 (all versions) is far from breaking even, as many experts say.

Now everyone wants a small plane with huge range, a thing we've seen in 1983 and was named the Boeing 757, the ugly duckling that eventually became a beautiful swan, so A and B are developing the A321XLR and the B73M with trans-atlantic capabilities, and the VLA era is over, but in very busy airports like JFK, LHR, ATL, DXB & Co. Companies are having big troubles finding free slots, so indeed they will need a VLA to maximize capacities on the most busy routes, so the VLA era is not over?
The new 777s will always be 777s, so even if a 779 will have optimized cabin spaces ( tuna can style ) cannot have the capacity of an A380 or a B748, so what will the Major Companies buy, when the last A380 and the last B748 will be stored? They will need another VLA...


Boeing 757 'Ugly Duckling'? How can you say that? It's still one of the most beautiful airliners ever built, and I'm sure many on this forum will agree with me.

Not only beautiful, but a total hot rod


Agree with you both. The take off for a 30- minute hop is like launching in a rocket, even if your pilot is a guy having a great day. Short hops I’ve done like PDX-SEA, LAX-SAN or HNL-OGG were all great take offs. EA was my first & best ever, still had the good new smell.
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Miquel787
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:07 am

The days of the four engined are over..Period..End of story.We can discuss this till the end of days..It won.t change anything.Airbus gambled and gambled wrong..It was nothing more then a moneyguzzling European prestige project.Technicaly ok but a commercial disaster.What is gonna happen with all those 380.s? There is no second hand market for it..
At least a lot of 747.s were given a second life as a freighter.Not gonna happen with the 380.It.s gonna be a second " Aluminium Avalanche"..(The 747.s without engines parked in Everett,cause lack of PW.s, in 1970 were given this name).

In 1994 Boeing paved the way with the 777 for what is now aviation..Long haul with two engines.And you can like it or not.It is reality and the way into the future.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:10 am

2175301 wrote:
Hmmm...

1) Under the right conditions I could see perhaps 20 748i being build in the future. All aircraft have routes that are just perfect for it. Of course, that demand by itself would never create such an aircraft... But, it already exist, is still in the order book. Admittedly, certain interior cabin parts contracts would have to be restarted - which could be done.

My anticipated speculation here would be EK who would like to maintain a VLA with luxury features like a bar and showers for certain routes. The upper deck of the 747 provides that option where the A350 and 777 do not. Should EK do it and restart the 8i line, a few other airlines might order another few...

2) I am not sure that the 748 (i or F) gets left behind in engine technology. It shares the same engine as the 787, and certainly more PIPs are coming. I also foresee an engine upgrade on the 787 in the mid 2020's to increase performance; and that same upgraded engine could almost certainly be used on the 748 at minimal cost.

3) The 748F lives on for a long time...

Have a great day,


There is now way any airline will order more 748i's. Once the VC-25 replacement planes are delivered to the USAF, the supply chain for 747 passenger variants will shut down. Boeing will push the 779X for customers who want a VLA. The era of 4-engined passenger jets is rapidly ending. The last ones are likely to be the aircraft replacing the current VIP aircraft for the president of the United States.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:15 am

Miquel787 wrote:
The days of the four engined are over..Period..End of story.We can discuss this till the end of days..It won.t change anything.Airbus gambled and gambled wrong..It was nothing more then a moneyguzzling European prestige project.Technicaly ok but a commercial disaster.What is gonna happen with all those 380.s? There is no second hand market for it..
At least a lot of 747.s were given a second life as a freighter.Not gonna happen with the 380.It.s gonna be a second " Aluminium Avalanche"..(The 747.s without engines parked in Everett,cause lack of PW.s, in 1970 were given this name).

In 1994 Boeing paved the way with the 777 for what is now aviation..Long haul with two engines.And you can like it or not.It is reality and the way into the future.


Airbus got it wrong twice. The A34-500/600 program was a misguided derivative of the A330/A340 program. It would have made more sense to build a stretched A330 but smaller than their A340-600 to compete against the 777.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:16 am

airlineworker wrote:
With the A380 out of the way, would Boeing consider upgrades to the 747-8? Perhaps extending the hump to the full length of the fuselage. Are there newer engines that would reduce fuel consumption, perhaps tweaking the wing and more composites? Just day dreaming.

Not likely. That world be beastly expensive.

That being said, it is possible that the 747-8 receives some engine improvements developed for the 787. So, perhaps improvements, but fairly marginal ones.
 
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N328KF
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:18 am

Miquel787 wrote:
At least a lot of 747.s were given a second life as a freighter.Not gonna happen with the 380.It.s gonna be a second " Aluminium Avalanche"..(The 747.s without engines parked in Everett,cause lack of PW.s, in 1970 were given this name).


I’m not sure some A380s won’t get some use, especially in bulk leisure markets (I.e. cargo will be unimportant), and I bet cheap A380s will be attractive to narcissistic VVIP customers, but: the engines are high value and not that old. I have to wonder if there isn’t a useful second-hand application for the T900s and GP7200s. Maybe not on airframes, but how about power generation or marine?
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
-Donny Miller
 
c933103
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:40 am

MileHFL400 wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:
I don't think so. There's little demand for VLAs anyway and the 777 can hardly be called that. Besides that, the A350 is more or less equally as big as the 777 so there's still competition on that size.



Can’t the -9 be counted as a VLA?

Airbus's closest product offering to 779 is closer to what they could offer to airlines as alternative to 77W when it was there
When no other countries around the world is going to militarily stop China and its subordinate fom abusing its citizens within its national boundary, it is unreasonable to expect those abuse can be countered with purely peaceful means.
 
c933103
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:42 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Miquel787 wrote:
The days of the four engined are over..Period..End of story.We can discuss this till the end of days..It won.t change anything.Airbus gambled and gambled wrong..It was nothing more then a moneyguzzling European prestige project.Technicaly ok but a commercial disaster.What is gonna happen with all those 380.s? There is no second hand market for it..
At least a lot of 747.s were given a second life as a freighter.Not gonna happen with the 380.It.s gonna be a second " Aluminium Avalanche"..(The 747.s without engines parked in Everett,cause lack of PW.s, in 1970 were given this name).

In 1994 Boeing paved the way with the 777 for what is now aviation..Long haul with two engines.And you can like it or not.It is reality and the way into the future.


Airbus got it wrong twice. The A34-500/600 program was a misguided derivative of the A330/A340 program. It would have made more sense to build a stretched A330 but smaller than their A340-600 to compete against the 777.

Weren't both A340 and A380 overbuilt? I don't think that's the fault of having 4 engines.
When no other countries around the world is going to militarily stop China and its subordinate fom abusing its citizens within its national boundary, it is unreasonable to expect those abuse can be countered with purely peaceful means.
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:23 am

c933103 wrote:
Weren't both A340 and A380 overbuilt? I don't think that's the fault of having 4 engines.


A340-2/300 was rather competitive. Early on the 777 gained less from performance but from strangely aggressive sales campaigns.
The A340NG Mk1 was definitely a Mk1 kind of airplane. overweight. never buy one of those.
the A340NG-HGW fixed the capabilities shortcoming but cost on the efficiency side.

The A380 ( as the first offered -800 model) was a shrink of the baseline design.
"Rightsizing the design for -800 ( Matt64..) capacity would have encroached on the large single decker designs
playground and would have nixed any reasonable room for upsizing.
Airbus should have done the -900 first ( assuming no 911 and no GFC and timely project execution.)
The way history ran they started at the top of a long, long hill and went down with gravity assist and no brakes.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:43 am

gsg013 wrote:
The one airline that always loves the big planes and makes them work economically where many other airlines cannot is Lufthansa... I honestly do see potential for LH to add more 747-8i's in the coming years. If anyone has any understanding on how LH makes the economics of the 4-holers work while others don't please explain... I chalk it up to German Engineering!!


Nope, LH did not even take all 748s. The choice for the future at LH is the 777-9, but even this is considered a bit big at the moment and we have heard musings, that they might ordered to many 777-9s and too few A359 (or 787s).

Recent rumours even suggest that despite clear rejections in the past, the A330NEO is being looked at again.
 
c933103
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:20 pm

gsg013 wrote:
The one airline that always loves the big planes and makes them work economically where many other airlines cannot is Lufthansa... I honestly do see potential for LH to add more 747-8i's in the coming years. If anyone has any understanding on how LH makes the economics of the 4-holers work while others don't please explain... I chalk it up to German Engineering!!


iirc LH have publicly stated the current generation quad engine VLA can't offer better cost to them than smaller twins
When no other countries around the world is going to militarily stop China and its subordinate fom abusing its citizens within its national boundary, it is unreasonable to expect those abuse can be countered with purely peaceful means.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Sat Feb 16, 2019 2:28 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
The 747-8 will go on as the 767 from now, no major engine upgrades and it will only be available as a freighter.

A simple NEO program isn't expensive. Maybe $2 billion at the most. That could easily provide an additional 100 orders to the program due to the better fuel burn, CASM and payload range. 100 aircraft even with a small profit margin can easily pay for the NEO development.

It would probably be perfectly timed as the bulk of the A380's will be retired around 2030.


Well Rolls Royce wasn't interested in NEOing the A380, that tells us something.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:23 am

olle wrote:
2025 an A350-2000 with new engines comes. This will mean that the b748 is one engine generation behind. 777x will both be more heavy then the A350 and without the advantage of better engines.

We will probably end up 2025 with A350 900; 1000; 2000 combined with b787 900; 1000 and a new b797.

Next will be what happens with a330 replacement.


I don't think the 777x is just going to disappear after a 5 year run.

If Boeing and GE need to do some kind of, NEO they will. Also Boeing can launch the 777-10 that's been mentioned.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Sat Feb 16, 2019 4:02 am

Aesma wrote:
Well Rolls Royce wasn't interested in NEOing the A380, that tells us something.

That the A380 is a poor design sold at a loss that is propped up by sales to Emirates which is also propped up by its government?

That sounds high risk to me.

The 747-8 sells at a profit. The freighter customers have decades of consistency with a proven track record. Air freight is growing exponentially and there is no 777-8F freighter on the horizon the only option is the 747-8F. That is hundreds of additional 747-8 frames and well worth a NEO program in 10 years time.

The 777X has been optimised for ultra long range fuel burn. The OEW increase actually makes it a worse freighter than the original as freighters usually do shorter stage lengths and take off heavily loaded.

This has been discussed in length. The math is simple.

The 777X with an OEW 20T heavier means it must take off with 20T less fuel before hitting that same MTOW. With a light passenger payload this might mean fuel load drops from 150T to 125T. A 16% reduction in fuel but as the aircraft burns 20% less fuel per mile the range increases by 4%

Now as a freighter , fully loaded the 777F can only carry 95T of fuel. Knocking that same 20T of fuel due to the 777-8 OEW weight increase fuel load drops to 75T. A 21% reduction in fuel on an aircraft that burns 20% less fuel per mile. That means less range. It gets even worse for the 777X freighter, with the same max landing weight that means the max payload must be 20T less.

The 777X might burn 20% less fuel but if it also carries 20% less payload then the fuel burnt per kg of payload is unchanged. So the 777-8F will offer bo cost saving over the current 777F. Boeing would have to spend billions making the 777-8 freigher with much strengthening to increase the landing weight and strengthening the floors.

The 747-8 already beats current 777F by 3%. A 747-8NEO will beat both the 777F and the 777-8F by 20+% in terms of fuel burn per kg of payload. So instead of spending billions on a 777X freighter boeing could and will spend that to do a simple NEO on the 747-8
 
B-HOP
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Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:10 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
The 747-8 will go on as the 767 from now, no major engine upgrades and it will only be available as a freighter.

A simple NEO program isn't expensive. Maybe $2 billion at the most. That could easily provide an additional 100 orders to the program due to the better fuel burn, CASM and payload range. 100 aircraft even with a small profit margin can easily pay for the NEO development.

It would probably be perfectly timed as the bulk of the A380's will be retired around 2030.


I like that prediction but would need to know how much further potential we could get from the current -8's wing, given large investment has been made on it beforehand, we also have to see how much next generation engines could save, if it is worth the effort Boeing would take a closer look. Don't forget, within next 5 years, lots of 744F would reach 20 years old and needed replacement. The reason A380 failed is because it cant carry much cargo beyond the bags and Asian operators made money out of that. For those still keeping a all cargo operation, the range for 777F might not be THAT useful for them, given the load is heavier for them, for Fedex, they have been able to advertise for a later cutoff time from Hong Kong, for CX, SQ etc, skipping ANC or DXB ex HKG makes little sense if the yield were not justified, don't forget they now have to compete with ME3 on belly cargo to Europe or KE to NA whom with large fleet of 77W, have plenty of space to sell. Passenger side, only if someone launched it with over 20 orders as their replacement for their current VLA but I don't think that is priority, there is not a lot 748 can and 779 can't do, but we would see how a combination of airport congestion in HKG, LHR et al and peak hour have effect on VLA

Kev
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