Max Q
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Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:03 am

With an announced end to production in 2021 does this mean Airbus won’t accept any new orders now ?


Perhaps this would be an incentive to offer some at ‘firesale’ prices and prompt operators like BA to buy a few more airframes while they can
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scbriml
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:07 am

It's done. No more orders. :shakehead:

Airlines will have been told - buy now or never. Sadly, from a passenger and A380 fan's perspective they all chose never.
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flee
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:26 am

Airlines that still want to buy the A380 will have plenty of used frames to choose from - they will be on sale at dirt cheap prices. Why should they pay over USD200m for a new copy that does not offer much better economics and new features?
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:27 am

scbriml wrote:
It's done. No more orders. :shakehead:

Airlines will have been told - buy now or never. Sadly, from a passenger and A380 fan's perspective they all chose never.


I would bet you that if an airline suddenly came running to A with cash in hand TOMORROW and wanted 50 of them, A would figure out a way (and there are some white tails, no?). The practice of turning down money is not a sound business model. But that's not going to happen.

In a year, when component manufacturers have closed up shop and perhaps destroyed molds and what-not, then no amount of money will resurrect the program.
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ScottB
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:45 am

Max Q wrote:
With an announced end to production in 2021 does this mean Airbus won’t accept any new orders now ?

Perhaps this would be an incentive to offer some at ‘firesale’ prices and prompt operators like BA to buy a few more airframes while they can


Airbus would probably accept new orders for a very short window if the customer were willing to pay enough per frame -- i.e. enough that they wouldn't be taking a loss on each as they do presently. However, that window is closing as suppliers have been notified that production will cease and at some point the supply chain will no longer exist for certain components.

Why would they offer "firesale" prices to drum up a few new orders when they already lose money at current prices? That sounds like the Underpants Gnomes strategy for airliner manufacturing:
1. Sell at "firesale" prices
2. ??
3. Profit
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:47 am

This is basically the same thing that we saw with the 757 fifteen years ago:
Airbus has spent the last three years essentially scouring the world looking for anyone who'll take an A380 by some means.... and other than EK and NH, they've essentially come up dry.

Airlines have long since been put on notice that it's buy now or cry later, and we see what they've chosen. The market interest just isn't there.
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aw70
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:52 am

Something I don't understand about this whole mess is why AB doesn't try to freeze the manufacturing capability, instead of completely shutting the line down. Freezing, as in: no more new builds for some years to come - but the line could be re-started with two, three years advance warning, if someone wanted more than, say, 10 of the things.

For that, you'd collect all the tooling which is now strewn across Europe, and store it somewhere. And if you ever re-start the line, you build the damn things in one place near the spot where you stored the jigs, not parcelled out across the entire bloody continent. You'd be doing small bespoke production runs anyway, so doing it in one spot would not be a big thing.

And if someone says: "you can't build an airliner in an economically viable fashion that way" - well, why not, actually? I mean, the things are all built by hand anyway. If you can't bring back a properly stored (!) production line with reasonable effort, it might indicate that your production processes are not as flexible and efficient as they should be in the first place. If you will, putting A380 production in cryogenic deep freeze could be a good exercise for AB to boost their efficiency and processes.

The reason why doing something like this might make sense is that an existing A380 can only really be replaced by an A380, on those not too plentiful but existing routes where it does make a lot of sense. The whale is a sort of binary aircraft: either it is a horrible fit for an airline's business model (in most cases), or it is a very good one, for a handful of routes in some networks. And for those routes, airlines might want new builds, starting in 5-10 years.

Of course, by then, the existing A380 will be rather dated. But if AB runs a low key programme of keeping the frozen A380 updated (and if this is done slowly and in an evolutionary manner, it would not cost the world), it might just allow them to sell more in the medium term future.

My personal guess is that the new management at AB didn't even consider anything of the sort, because they want a clean break with a past they don't like. And that they might be wasting an opportunity because of manager ego.
 
aw70
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:54 am

LAX772LR wrote:
This is basically the same thing that we saw with the 757 fifteen years ago:
Airbus has spent the last three years essentially scouring the world looking for anyone who'll take an A380 by some means.... and other than EK and NH, they've essentially come up dry.


Your posting came up while I was writing mine about freezing the production line for the A380, instead of shutting it down.

Boeing probably bit their asses a number of times for not having done something like a freeze for the 757 as well: until the advent of the 321LR, there was a niche which the 757 basically owned. They definitely could have sold a number of 757 in the 15 years since the line shutdown, if they had kept some standby mfg capacity for the type around. But no, they had to destroy the tooling. Morons.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:14 am

Guys, nobody could be more disappointed that the A380 is coming to an end, but please don't turn this into the next 757!

Airbus is losing money on each A380 they build. Why would they continue to build them? It doesn't make any sense. As soon as EK started making noises about not wanting all their orders, Airbus will have been all over it like a rash.

As to suggestions of 'mothballing' everything so it could be restarted again, that just ain't happening. All the space at TLS and FXW dedicated to producing loss-making A380s can be used to build current (or new!) profit-making planes. It's not just the bits that Airbus needs to keep either, you're expecting the entire, massive supply chain to keep everything "just in case". Sorry, but you guys need a large dose of business reality.

I'll say it again - nobody could be more disappointed than me, but it ain't coming back. Just like the Trident, 727, Concorde and, of course, the 757. :shakehead:
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jeffrey0032j
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:20 am

aw70 wrote:
Something I don't understand about this whole mess is why AB doesn't try to freeze the manufacturing capability, instead of completely shutting the line down. Freezing, as in: no more new builds for some years to come - but the line could be re-started with two, three years advance warning, if someone wanted more than, say, 10 of the things.

For that, you'd collect all the tooling which is now strewn across Europe, and store it somewhere. And if you ever re-start the line, you build the damn things in one place near the spot where you stored the jigs, not parcelled out across the entire bloody continent. You'd be doing small bespoke production runs anyway, so doing it in one spot would not be a big thing.

And if someone says: "you can't build an airliner in an economically viable fashion that way" - well, why not, actually? I mean, the things are all built by hand anyway. If you can't bring back a properly stored (!) production line with reasonable effort, it might indicate that your production processes are not as flexible and efficient as they should be in the first place. If you will, putting A380 production in cryogenic deep freeze could be a good exercise for AB to boost their efficiency and processes.

The reason why doing something like this might make sense is that an existing A380 can only really be replaced by an A380, on those not too plentiful but existing routes where it does make a lot of sense. The whale is a sort of binary aircraft: either it is a horrible fit for an airline's business model (in most cases), or it is a very good one, for a handful of routes in some networks. And for those routes, airlines might want new builds, starting in 5-10 years.

Of course, by then, the existing A380 will be rather dated. But if AB runs a low key programme of keeping the frozen A380 updated (and if this is done slowly and in an evolutionary manner, it would not cost the world), it might just allow them to sell more in the medium term future.

My personal guess is that the new management at AB didn't even consider anything of the sort, because they want a clean break with a past they don't like. And that they might be wasting an opportunity because of manager ego.

Keeping existing tooling for an improved version ignores the fact that the plane may have evolved so much that these tooling may be rendered useless. Bearing in mind that the market changes rapidly that may render this decision as a waste of money.
 
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flee
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:40 am

It is easy to say freeze production - but do u guys know what it means? There is a cost to storing the tooling, both at Airbus production and supplier sites. Employees are going to be the biggest problem - you cannot expect them to maintain their skills without producing anything. In any case, should production restart in 10 years, a whole new set of employees need to be trained to do the job. Perhaps by then, a lot of these "people" will have to be robots!

LAX772LR wrote:
This is basically the same thing that we saw with the 757 fifteen years ago:
Airbus has spent the last three years essentially scouring the world looking for anyone who'll take an A380 by some means.... and other than EK and NH, they've essentially come up dry.

Airlines have long since been put on notice that it's buy now or cry later, and we see what they've chosen. The market interest just isn't there.

I really hope that the 757 syndrome does not return - if it does, Airbus can do the same as Boeing. The A380 is done and dusted - if u airlines want another VLA, we have to do it from scratch and you must accept the cost of doing so. Airlines these days are so focussed on cramped sardine cans and operational costs that they forget that their customers are humans.
 
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:50 am

ScottB wrote:
Why would they offer "firesale" prices to drum up a few new orders when they already lose money at current prices?


Do you know that most jets are sold at loss? Namely inkjets. Airliners are inkjets, though A380 may be beyond that.
 
N1KE
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:57 am

Well that did not take long for the first topic on will Airbus be able to do so an so with the A380. Think the A380 will become the new 757 or Delta topic leader that always appear on here
 
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intotheair
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:26 am

flee wrote:
It is easy to say freeze production - but do u guys know what it means? There is a cost to storing the tooling, both at Airbus production and supplier sites. Employees are going to be the biggest problem - you cannot expect them to maintain their skills without producing anything. In any case, should production restart in 10 years, a whole new set of employees need to be trained to do the job. Perhaps by then, a lot of these "people" will have to be robots!

LAX772LR wrote:
This is basically the same thing that we saw with the 757 fifteen years ago:
Airbus has spent the last three years essentially scouring the world looking for anyone who'll take an A380 by some means.... and other than EK and NH, they've essentially come up dry.

Airlines have long since been put on notice that it's buy now or cry later, and we see what they've chosen. The market interest just isn't there.

I really hope that the 757 syndrome does not return - if it does, Airbus can do the same as Boeing. The A380 is done and dusted - if u airlines want another VLA, we have to do it from scratch and you must accept the cost of doing so. Airlines these days are so focussed on cramped sardine cans and operational costs that they forget that their customers are humans.


The market for a 180 seat, 4,000 nmi jet dwindled in the early 2000s. It's just now starting to come back, and the jury's still out as to whether it's big enough to warrant a new clean sheet design.

I still think that the A380 was probably ahead of its time, though I doubt the market for a 600 seat double decker will return quite as quickly. The aviation industry probably will be interested in a plane that large again in a few decades' time, assuming the whole industry isn't done in by climate change by then.
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aviationaware
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:38 am

aw70 wrote:
Something I don't understand about this whole mess is why AB doesn't try to freeze the manufacturing capability, instead of completely shutting the line down. Freezing, as in: no more new builds for some years to come - but the line could be re-started with two, three years advance warning, if someone wanted more than, say, 10 of the things.


That's not feasible. You have probably never been to any aerospace production site by the sounds of it. I strongly recommend doing that, many of them offer tours. Both Airbus and Boeing and some parts suppliers. It's really interesting.

The bottomline is, the tooling to produce jets is huge. Keeping it in freeze would mean keeping entire production halls in hibernation. Those tools are nothing you can just push together in some storage facility. When a program is no longer running, you basically have no economic choice other than destroying the tools. And not just at the OEMs - also at the suppliers. Airbus would basically have to incentivize their suppliers not to destroy their tools, which is another reason why it can never work.

Case in point: Premium Aerotec (Airbus subsidiary) incurred tremendous costs because they had to keep the Eurofighter tools. They basically weren't producing anything between tranches recently but also couldn't utilize their floor space in a productive way.
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:49 am

I know, lets convert this to replace the 380, sort of Mini Me :stirthepot:

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trent768
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:31 am

I wonder if in 10-15 years from now, will a.net be filled with 'should airbus resurrect the A380?' threads? I mean, the 757 will probably gone by then and something have to continue the legacy of those 757 threads :D
 
juliuswong
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:49 am

Well you can't order something that is no longer in the product catalogue. So, no, you can't order anymore from now. Once they are done with EK and ANA order, they will officially be done with. Airbus has few A380 lying around, they won't mind to cut a deal by putting together few banged up used, but not loved A380......
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:24 am

aw70 wrote:
Something I don't understand about this whole mess is why AB doesn't try to freeze the manufacturing capability, instead of completely shutting the line down. Freezing, as in: no more new builds for some years to come - but the line could be re-started with two, three years advance warning, if someone wanted more than, say, 10 of the things.

For that, you'd collect all the tooling which is now strewn across Europe, and store it somewhere. And if you ever re-start the line, you build the damn things in one place near the spot where you stored the jigs, not parcelled out across the entire bloody continent. You'd be doing small bespoke production runs anyway, so doing it in one spot would not be a big thing.

And if someone says: "you can't build an airliner in an economically viable fashion that way" - well, why not, actually? I mean, the things are all built by hand anyway. If you can't bring back a properly stored (!) production line with reasonable effort, it might indicate that your production processes are not as flexible and efficient as they should be in the first place. If you will, putting A380 production in cryogenic deep freeze could be a good exercise for AB to boost their efficiency and processes.

The reason why doing something like this might make sense is that an existing A380 can only really be replaced by an A380, on those not too plentiful but existing routes where it does make a lot of sense. The whale is a sort of binary aircraft: either it is a horrible fit for an airline's business model (in most cases), or it is a very good one, for a handful of routes in some networks. And for those routes, airlines might want new builds, starting in 5-10 years.

Of course, by then, the existing A380 will be rather dated. But if AB runs a low key programme of keeping the frozen A380 updated (and if this is done slowly and in an evolutionary manner, it would not cost the world), it might just allow them to sell more in the medium term future.

My personal guess is that the new management at AB didn't even consider anything of the sort, because they want a clean break with a past they don't like. And that they might be wasting an opportunity because of manager ego.



Ending production doesn't make sense when they can just as easily suspend it.

The clean break they are making to promote a smooth management change shows that the executives are more worried with moving executive positions than they are about maintaining an iconic program.

With this mentality, it's surprising that they can get anything done.

Ah forget about Airbus and the A380. We still have the almighty Queen of the Skies.
 
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Channex757
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:46 am

There are accountancy benefits from dismantling and destroying tooling. That's why Boeing did it with the 757 line and also why Airbus will do it with the A380 tooling. It's to do with writedowns of assets and taxation benefits (I'm no accountant but that is why Boeing did it and why Airbus will too).

Have the funeral, read the will and move on. You can't do that by keeping the corpse on life support.
 
slcguy
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:26 pm

Yes, dismantling a closed line makes sense. but comparing the 757 to the 380 is wrong. The 757 was a success selling around 1200 and airlines that wanted it had a full fleet of them. This followed by 9/11, mergers and economic down turn of the 2000's meant the end of the 757. Bet there are a lot of airlines wishing there was an updated 757NG available now, unfortunately that can't happen. As for planes that are flying, wouldn't surprise me if the last B757 freighter outlasts the 380.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:32 pm

The only cry to resurrect the 757 has been from A-nutters, not from the airlines. The reason the A321 has been successfully encroaching on what was 757 territory is that it offers much better economics than the 757 did. And as for “freezing” the A380 line, that idea shows total ignorance of what it takes to build an airliner. The tooling cannot simply be packed into warehouses; an essential part of the tooling is the building in which it is set up. Leaving those gigantic buildings inactive but still maintaining them would be hugely expensive. But even more important than the buildings is the people. Even though Airbus personnel know how to build airplanes, there is a learning curve for each new model, as each is different. And the A380 is more different than most. There is a very good reason why it takes a while to become “cash positive” on a new model; it’s that it takes time for the workers and supervisors to learn how to build it quickly and efficiently. That knowledge cannot be stored; once the people who have it are gone it is gone.

But this is ignoring the elephant in the room. The A380 is going out of production not because it is too big, but because it costs too much to fly; I.e. technology has passed it by. Smaller planes can now beat its CASM, and with that fact the only reason for an airline to buy it is slot constraints. But that is not a valid reason to buy it, as airlines are not in business to fly every passenger they can, they are in business to make money. And if slot constraints restrict the number of passengers that can fly into a given airport then fares to that airport will go up. If there exists an aircraft that will ECONOMICALLY haul more people into that airport then it will be bought and utilized because of competition. But that aircraft is now the 779, not the A380. And 779 sales have not exactly been burning the barn down. So the demand for huge airliners to deal with slot constraints is just not there, and it will not be for some time. And when the need does arise it will be for one with better CASM than anything else flying. That will not be the A380.
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scbriml
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:49 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Ending production doesn't make sense when they can just as easily suspend it.


It does if you read responses in this very thread.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The clean break they are making to promote a smooth management change shows that the executives are more worried with moving executive positions than they are about maintaining a loss-making program that couldn't get enough orders to be profitable.


FTFY. ;)
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slcguy
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:53 pm

To SEPilot, I didn't say they should resurrect the 757. As I said, that can't happen! Closest thing we've got is your beloved A321. As for the 380, too big too late!
 
jumbojet
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:21 pm

flee wrote:
Airlines that still want to buy the A380 will have plenty of used frames to choose from - they will be on sale at dirt cheap prices. ?


Look no further than E-bay, Craigslist, maybe even Amazon, for a cheap, used Airbus A380! :rotfl:
 
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N328KF
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:21 pm

scbriml wrote:
Guys, nobody could be more disappointed that the A380 is coming to an end, but please don't turn this into the next 757!

Airbus is losing money on each A380 they build. Why would they continue to build them? It doesn't make any sense. As soon as EK started making noises about not wanting all their orders, Airbus will have been all over it like a rash.

As to suggestions of 'mothballing' everything so it could be restarted again, that just ain't happening. All the space at TLS and FXW dedicated to producing loss-making A380s can be used to build current (or new!) profit-making planes. It's not just the bits that Airbus needs to keep either, you're expecting the entire, massive supply chain to keep everything "just in case". Sorry, but you guys need a large dose of business reality.

I'll say it again - nobody could be more disappointed than me, but it ain't coming back. Just like the Trident, 727, Concorde and, of course, the 757. :shakehead:


The big difference is that the 757 is considered to be a commercial success. The A380, not so much. In another thread, we have people also arguing to freeze the A380 line, and resurrect it with new technology in 2025 as if it were Ted Williams. That typically works in limited cases, and for customers with different budget considerations (C-5B Galaxy, etc.)
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:38 pm

Markets change and the current Airbus management is not capable of looking beyond their bonus checks.

Airbus now only has A220 and A330's to sell for the next decade with both models overlapping with their best sellers. Airbus salemen might as well learn how to sell helicopters.
Boeing on the other hand has availabilities across its entire line-up.

Imagine Boeing with a line-up like E2/B737/B747/B777/B787/B797 against Airbus' meager A220/A320/A330/A350.

Bah, Airbus has gone from pioneer to less than relevant in one day.
 
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Polot
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:41 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Markets change and the current Airbus management is not capable of looking beyond their bonus checks.

Airbus now only has A220 and A330's to sell for the next decade with both models overlapping with their best sellers. Airbus salemen might as well learn how to sell helicopters.
Boeing on the other hand has availabilities across its entire line-up.

Imagine Boeing with a line-up like E2/B737/B747/B777/B787/B797 against Airbus' meager A220/A320/A330/A350.

Bah, Airbus has gone from pioneer to less than relevant in one day.

Indeed it is a shame. Airbus was doing such a fantastic job selling A380s in that old A220/A320/A330/A350/A380 line up of theirs.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:53 pm

slcguy wrote:
To SEPilot, I didn't say they should resurrect the 757. As I said, that can't happen! Closest thing we've got is your beloved A321. As for the 380, too big too late!

I did not name any individuals calling for resumption of 757 production; but there certainly have been numerous threads advocating just that. And the A321 May be beloved by some, but I am not one of them, being a diehard Boeing fan. Personally, the 757 was one of my favorite planes to fly on. I am sorry they are disappearing. But I recognize economic realities.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
AleksW
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:58 pm

Folks, was Airbus actually earning money with this program? I mean after all these expenses for the clean sheet A380, did they actually breake even? If yes, after how many sold frames?
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:59 pm

Finn350 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Imagine Boeing with a line-up like E2/B737/B747/B777/B787/B797 against Airbus' meager A220/A320/A330/A350.


Let's take a closer look:
- A220 outperforms E2
- A320 outperforms B737
- B747 is pretty much dead
- B787 vs A330/A350, Airbus has an edge
- B777 is customized for the ME3 requirements with very limited market appeal otherwise
- there is no B797

Then why did Boeing outsell Airbus last year, and that was with Airbus including A220 sales but Boeing not including E2 sales? Obviously airline buyers are just plain stupid.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
aaexecplat
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:02 pm

DocLightning wrote:
scbriml wrote:
It's done. No more orders. :shakehead:

Airlines will have been told - buy now or never. Sadly, from a passenger and A380 fan's perspective they all chose never.


I would bet you that if an airline suddenly came running to A with cash in hand TOMORROW and wanted 50 of them, A would figure out a way (and there are some white tails, no?). The practice of turning down money is not a sound business model. But that's not going to happen.

In a year, when component manufacturers have closed up shop and perhaps destroyed molds and what-not, then no amount of money will resurrect the program.


This is obviously the right answer....today or anytime before the component manufacturers have ceased production, or the assembly lines have been wound down or staff reassigned...they can still accept orders. But as soon as any of those things happen, it would take a MASSIVE order (say 500 frames) to restart the production. And A will not get anymore orders today (for even a few frames) nor will they get an order for 500 in the future.

The silver lining here is that there will now be very affordable frames showing up on the secondary market that should absolutely be viable for some carriers to operate for many years. And that will cost far less to acquire than a new A380 given that customers (airlines) now have the power in price negotiations.
 
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Finn350
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:03 pm

AleksW wrote:
Folks, was Airbus actually earning money with this program? I mean after all these expenses for the clean sheet A380, did they actually breake even? If yes, after how many sold frames?


They were briefly cash positive on production 2-3 years ago. When they had to cut production rate they became cash negative on production again (albeit not to a large degree).
 
aw70
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:04 pm

aviationaware wrote:
That's not feasible. You have probably never been to any aerospace production site by the sounds of it. I strongly recommend doing that, many of them offer tours. Both Airbus and Boeing and some parts suppliers. It's really interesting.


I have seen how jets are produced, and have actual first hand industrial experience with how the car industry does its thing (I'm an engineer myself). That is why I said that by comparison to the car industry, jets are bespoke hand crafted things. Sure, the tooling is voluminous and complex: but storing that in a form so that it can be re-used later on with doable effort, and in an economically feasible way, is an engineering challenge, not an impossibility. Of course, a lot of things are impossible if you don't even try, or want to do it. But it could certainly be done: especially if you have two years to plan ahead.
 
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Finn350
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:07 pm

SEPilot wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Imagine Boeing with a line-up like E2/B737/B747/B777/B787/B797 against Airbus' meager A220/A320/A330/A350.


Let's take a closer look:
- A220 outperforms E2
- A320 outperforms B737
- B747 is pretty much dead
- B787 vs A330/A350, Airbus has an edge
- B777 is customized for the ME3 requirements with very limited market appeal otherwise
- there is no B797

Then why did Boeing outsell Airbus last year, and that was with Airbus including A220 sales but Boeing not including E2 sales? Obviously airline buyers are just plain stupid.


Because Airbus had already earlier filled their order book. You have to look at the whole backlog, not just orders in individual years.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/01/11/airbu ... vs-boeing/
 
af773atmsp
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:09 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
This is basically the same thing that we saw with the 757 fifteen years ago:
Airbus has spent the last three years essentially scouring the world looking for anyone who'll take an A380 by some means.... and other than EK and NH, they've essentially come up dry.

Airlines have long since been put on notice that it's buy now or cry later, and we see what they've chosen. The market interest just isn't there.


And then we'll get a bunch of "Should Airbus reopen the A380 production line?" threads.
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jetblueguy22
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:12 pm

How small do the “freeze” production think the tooling is? It’s not like they just throw it in a toolbox and call it a day.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:12 pm

Finn350 wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
Finn350 wrote:

Let's take a closer look:
- A220 outperforms E2
- A320 outperforms B737
- B747 is pretty much dead
- B787 vs A330/A350, Airbus has an edge
- B777 is customized for the ME3 requirements with very limited market appeal otherwise
- there is no B797

Then why did Boeing outsell Airbus last year, and that was with Airbus including A220 sales but Boeing not including E2 sales? Obviously airline buyers are just plain stupid.


Because Airbus had already earlier filled their order book. You have to look at the whole backlog, not just orders in individual years.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/01/11/airbu ... vs-boeing/

56% to 44% is not enough to account for the difference. If you subtract the A220 from Airbus results, since Boeing had no competitor, Boeing outsold Airbus by a much bigger margin. And Boeing delivered more planes as well, which will help them sell even more next year. Yes, delivery times matter, but both manufacturers are capable of squeezing in slots for good customers when needed. And from your article, Boeing’s widebody backlog is bigger than Airbus’s, and yet Boeing handily outsold Airbus in widebodies.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Max Q
Topic Author
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:18 pm

SEPilot wrote:
slcguy wrote:
To SEPilot, I didn't say they should resurrect the 757. As I said, that can't happen! Closest thing we've got is your beloved A321. As for the 380, too big too late!

I did not name any individuals calling for resumption of 757 production; but there certainly have been numerous threads advocating just that. And the A321 May be beloved by some, but I am not one of them, being a diehard Boeing fan. Personally, the 757 was one of my favorite planes to fly on. I am sorry they are disappearing. But I recognize economic realities.



Point is, the 757 became a self fulfilling prophecy once it was prematurely shut down, going to a very slow production rate like Boeing have done with the 747 would have allowed full scale production to resume after a temporary slump in orders


It’s popular on this site to disparage the idea but the reality is a NG, re-enginedcversion of the 752 and 753 is exactly what the market is looking for right now



Without the billions and billions required to develop a replacement 797 you’d have a very efficient, high performance 4500-5000 Nm range aircraft that would still share the same type rating with its still in production counterpart the 767


That money could be used to develop a long term solution clean sheet replacement
737 program in a decade or so, it would have given Boeing enormous development funding breathing room


Shutting down the 757 was Boeing’s biggest mistake
Last edited by Max Q on Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.
 
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flee
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:23 pm

SEPilot wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Imagine Boeing with a line-up like E2/B737/B747/B777/B787/B797 against Airbus' meager A220/A320/A330/A350.

Let's take a closer look:
- A220 outperforms E2
- A320 outperforms B737
- B747 is pretty much dead
- B787 vs A330/A350, Airbus has an edge
- B777 is customized for the ME3 requirements with very limited market appeal otherwise
- there is no B797

Then why did Boeing outsell Airbus last year, and that was with Airbus including A220 sales but Boeing not including E2 sales? Obviously airline buyers are just plain stupid.

Orders don't equate to sales - and as Airbus have found out, orders can be cancelled.

It is deliveries that make those orders sales. So we should pay more attention to deliveries.

One more thing - the airliner market is not a single year thing. A more representative look should be done over a longer period - say 3 to 5 years.
 
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DrPaul
Posts: 94
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:30 pm

Further to what other posters have said about keeping the A380 jigs in moth-balls, that the cost of maintaining idle factories and underemployed manufacturing staff is high, would not the jigs themselves need to be regularly updated to keep up with general technological changes that would have to be taken into account were production to be restarted, thus incurring further costs? Furthermore, if there were to be a demand for a very large airliner in the future, would not the Whale be likely by then to be outdated as a design, and that completely new jigs would thus be necessary to build any new plane of that size?
 
aaexecplat
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:30 pm

SEPilot wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
Then why did Boeing outsell Airbus last year, and that was with Airbus including A220 sales but Boeing not including E2 sales? Obviously airline buyers are just plain stupid.


Because Airbus had already earlier filled their order book. You have to look at the whole backlog, not just orders in individual years.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/01/11/airbu ... vs-boeing/

56% to 44% is not enough to account for the difference. If you subtract the A220 from Airbus results, since Boeing had no competitor, Boeing outsold Airbus by a much bigger margin. And Boeing delivered more planes as well, which will help them sell even more next year. Yes, delivery times matter, but both manufacturers are capable of squeezing in slots for good customers when needed. And from your article, Boeing’s widebody backlog is bigger than Airbus’s, and yet Boeing handily outsold Airbus in widebodies.


Tell you what...you win...Boeing is clearly the company selling the better products and therefore sold more airplanes last year. Feel better now?
 
aaexecplat
Posts: 491
Joined: Tue Sep 29, 2009 2:49 pm

Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:44 pm

SEPilot wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
Then why did Boeing outsell Airbus last year, and that was with Airbus including A220 sales but Boeing not including E2 sales? Obviously airline buyers are just plain stupid.


Because Airbus had already earlier filled their order book. You have to look at the whole backlog, not just orders in individual years.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/01/11/airbu ... vs-boeing/

56% to 44% is not enough to account for the difference. If you subtract the A220 from Airbus results, since Boeing had no competitor, Boeing outsold Airbus by a much bigger margin. And Boeing delivered more planes as well, which will help them sell even more next year. Yes, delivery times matter, but both manufacturers are capable of squeezing in slots for good customers when needed. And from your article, Boeing’s widebody backlog is bigger than Airbus’s, and yet Boeing handily outsold Airbus in widebodies.


I should point out that Leeham says the following in his article "Boeing wins the widebody backlog, 53% to 47%, driven by a broader product line, including strong 777F and KC-46A/767-300ERF backlogs." That means the numbers include freight and military...
 
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SEPilot
Posts: 5385
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:50 pm

Max Q wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
slcguy wrote:
To SEPilot, I didn't say they should resurrect the 757. As I said, that can't happen! Closest thing we've got is your beloved A321. As for the 380, too big too late!

I did not name any individuals calling for resumption of 757 production; but there certainly have been numerous threads advocating just that. And the A321 May be beloved by some, but I am not one of them, being a diehard Boeing fan. Personally, the 757 was one of my favorite planes to fly on. I am sorry they are disappearing. But I recognize economic realities.



Point is, the 757 became a self fulfilling prophecy once it was prematurely shut down, going to a very slow production rate like Boeing have done with the 747 would have allowed full scale production to resume after a temporary slump in orders


It’s popular on this site to disparage the idea but the reality is a NG, re-enginedcversion of the 752 and 753 is exactly what the market is looking for right now.

Without the billions and billions required to develop a replacement 797 you’d have a very efficient, high performance 4500-5000 Nm range aircraft that would still share the same type rating with its still in production counterpart the 767


That money could be used to develop a long term solution clean sheet replacement
737 program in a decade or so, it would have given Boeing enormous development funding breathing room


Shutting down the 757 was Boeing’s biggest mistake

I have to disagree with you about the 757 being “prematurely shut down”. There were no more sales. And there was no new technology engine available or on the horizon that would fit. And the engine makers were busy with the 787 and A350 engines, and likely did not have the resources to tackle a new 757 engine at that time. So Boeing should have kept the 757 line intact and idle while they and the engine maker spent billions on a new engine on the hope that it would sell? The reason it stopped selling is that the A321 and, to a lesser extent, the 739ER were eating into its market. The routes that required its range were not enough to make it viable, and Boeing is finding that out now with its difficulty in closing the business case for the 797, which if built, will be a much more efficient plane than a re-engined 757 would have been. And closing the 757 line has enabled Boeing to massively increase 737 production, which has made them boatloads of money that they otherwise would not have been able to make without building a new plant, which would also have been massively expensive.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
aw70
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2014 11:20 am

Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:52 pm

DrPaul wrote:
Further to what other posters have said about keeping the A380 jigs in moth-balls, that the cost of maintaining idle factories and underemployed manufacturing staff is high, would not the jigs themselves need to be regularly updated to keep up with general technological changes that would have to be taken into account were production to be restarted, thus incurring further costs? Furthermore, if there were to be a demand for a very large airliner in the future, would not the Whale be likely by then to be outdated as a design, and that completely new jigs would thus be necessary to build any new plane of that size?


Keeping the A380 jigs in mothballs indefinitely would be idiotic. The maximum timeframe would be something around 10-15 years or so: by then, a clean sheet design would probably be so much better that the old jigs would not help. But re the age of the tech: look at the 767. That is still in production, and selling, in spite of the basic airframe tech being even older than the A330 (which is also still in production).

So you have at least one and a half decades during which the A380 could be meaningfully resurrected - if the tooling is not destroyed, that is.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:53 pm

DrPaul wrote:
Further to what other posters have said about keeping the A380 jigs in moth-balls, that the cost of maintaining idle factories and underemployed manufacturing staff is high, would not the jigs themselves need to be regularly updated to keep up with general technological changes that would have to be taken into account were production to be restarted, thus incurring further costs? Furthermore, if there were to be a demand for a very large airliner in the future, would not the Whale be likely by then to be outdated as a design, and that completely new jigs would thus be necessary to build any new plane of that size?

It is already outdated; that is why production is ceasing.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
AleksW
Posts: 59
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:18 pm

Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:15 pm

Max Q wrote:
Shutting down the 757 was Boeing’s biggest mistake

Maybe. I can imagine that with aerodynamic improvements similar to what Airbus had done to A330 NEO, next gen engines like CFM LEAP and cabin redisign similar to A321NEO - 757 could have chance. But who knew? :)
 
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smithbs
Posts: 238
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:42 pm

DocLightning wrote:
In a year, when component manufacturers have closed up shop and perhaps destroyed molds and what-not, then no amount of money will resurrect the program.


When the tooling is destroyed, it should be done publicly and the videos put on Youtube for the sole purpose of preventing any "Restart A380 Production" threads on a.net. We've learned our lesson from the 757.
 
TC957
Posts: 3414
Joined: Wed May 23, 2012 1:12 pm

Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:42 pm

Had CPT and JFK T7 been A380-capable I'm sure BA would have got 4 or 5 more.
 
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DrPaul
Posts: 94
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Re: Will Airbus accept any more A380 orders ?

Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:44 pm

TC957 wrote:
Had CPT and JFK T7 been A380-capable I'm sure BA would have got 4 or 5 more.


I don't think that this would have sufficed to 'Save the Whale' (to use an old slogan). Many more sales were needed for that.

I guess the main question now is how long the Whale is going to stay in service. If there is still a need for them on routes on which they are currently used, and they continue to be economical to run, then I imagine that they could still be seen for quite some time. If, on the other hand, circumstances change and smaller planes can do the job more economically, then their withdrawal might start long before their actual life expectancy is up. And unlike the 747, they won't have a freighter 'afterlife'.

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