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morrisond
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Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:03 pm

With the Cancellation of the A380 and development essentially completed on all their models - where does Airbus go next?

What does the line-up look like in 2025 - either in Development or pumping out of the factories?

What do they do with all the Industrial Infrastructure freed-up from A380 cancellation?

Personally I see 2 paths.

#1 - The Derivative path

Extend the A220 to a 500 version

Launch a re-winged A320 Series that offers one Model Larger in Size - the A322. A320 is extended to match 738 Capacity.

I first thought that the new wing would just be for A321/A322 but with A319 essentially dead - it would make more sense to re-wing the A320 as well.

A330 NEO stays in production but probably winds down after 2025 or thereabouts

A350 is extended to an 1100 or 2000 with Ultrafans

This is the relatively low risk solution however with A330 possibly winding down sooner rather than later they would have a big gap from A322 to A359.

There is no real use for the A380 factory infrastructure in this scenario other than possibly for wing plants if Brexit moves wing assembly out of the UK.

#2 - Replace the middle strategy

Extend the A220 to an 500 and possible 700 with bigger Wing/Higher MTOW if necessary - Cockpit commonality with larger Airbus models. Replaces A319/320

Replace larger A320 series and A330 series with 7W Carbon Oval fuselage to take over from A321 on the low end, A339 on the high end. Use A380 facilities to build this while keeping Legacy Plants pumping out A320 series as long as there is a market.

A350 is extended to an 1100 or 2000 with Ultrafans

The benefit to this is then Airbus has three modern Cross Sections (5W,7W,9W) that they can use to build almost any number/size of derivatives.

Given Airbus's lower margins on its Commercial Airline Production - it seems like they need to go a little radical with A321/A330 sizes to get their costs down and profits up. The labour hours to build A320/A330 could be extreme and uncompetitive if Boeing launches NMA and NSA based on NMA with new production processes. I think Boeing is showing that Modern Production processes can really help and is why 787 seems to be doing so well and contributing very nicely to the bottom line. NMA should be a step better.

Personally I think they choose Option #1 the Derivative approach - I think this works in the short term but in the long term I don't think it is the right way to go.

It's almost not who builds the most efficient airliners going forward - it will be who builds the most efficient to build airliners.

At some point COMAC could be a real competitor (at least in Asia/Silk Road) and production cost will be an even bigger issue than it is today.


In your opinion what do you think the line-up looks like in 2025?
 
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Kindanew
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:34 pm

I think it’s too early to write the A330neo off.
 
Noshow
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:40 pm

They'd need to offer the A330neo for some lower price. The step up to get some full flavour A350 is to small from my point of view.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:43 pm

The A350 and the A321 are Airbus' best designs. The A350 will be around for a while given its flexibility and the upcoming replacement cycle for 777-300ERs. There may be a stretch and there's apparently a neo in the works. Its a great family of aircraft so I expect it will be around.

A321acf/LR/neo is a great 757-200 replacement.

The A319 is dead/useless, especially given the SHARP package can make the A320neo have much better field performance.

A220-500? That definitely should happen, and an A220neo would be a great thing to keep the family around (given how nicely its designed I think it will be popular).

Airbus going forward...

A220 family extended to an A220-500 gives them great "small jet" cred, and a neo program could extend it. That gives them the 110-160 market all nicely sewn up.

When Airbus do a future "NSA" I'd suspect they'll do it as a three jet family... one 'base model' jet approximating a 737-8's size, then a stretch that's roughly an A321 size, and an enhanced/beefed up version of that stretch which replaces A321LRs and 757-200s. The A220 does the smaller stuff than this family. Maybe this family will be dimensioned so as to have the same seat widths as the A220s.

If Boeing do the NMA next, I think Airbus will let them have the segment. The A321LR does the 757-200 routes, and the NMA does the 767 role. The A330neo program will be slowly wound down and phased out eventually.

So basically, I see Airbus developing an A220-500, continuing to develop the A350, and pushing the A321neo/LR and A320neoSHARP jets. A330neo is pushed out by 787s.

Boeing, meanwhile, will focus on the NMA next. And both Boeing and Airbus will work on NSAs at roughly similar times, standardizing around the 738 and A321acf sizes.

After the NMA, Boeing will work on an A350/777X replacement, doing the 330-400pax long range market.

Airbus on the other hand? Maybe they'll go back to the middle/A330-sized segment when the Dreamliners get old and dusty.
 
airbazar
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:44 pm

2025 is only 6 years from now. Airbus' lineup will be exactly the same as it is today.
 
dopplerd
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:47 pm

It would be interesting to see a a220-500 and then a a320 family replacement the was optimized around an A321 sized model which would allow for an "a322" sized MOM model. Throw in cockpit commonality with the A220 and airlines would be able to have the 110 to 250 seat market covered with minimal type training.
 
Noshow
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:49 pm

How about some A350 freighter version?
 
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Channex757
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:55 pm

The next generation of aircraft will be more to do with propulsion than anything else. As the OEMs are risk-averse nowadays then the tube-and-two design will be around for a long time yet. That means engine developments will pace what happens.

For Airbus, a substantial PIP on the Pratt powered A32X family should yield real results and increase range. That is low hanging fruit for the airframer and won't need much work in Toulouse.

Next up should be a NEO option for the A350 mid-decade. I like the sound of A350Ultra for an Ultrafan powered variant. The stretch to -2000 is the most likely project to happen in the wake of the A380 demise; again with Ultrafan so mid decade. Until then it's a time of consolidation and trimming costs out of the lines plus gather some cash in from the healthy order book.
 
morrisond
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 2:05 pm

Noshow wrote:
How about some A350 freighter version?



That would make sense but at this point probably not until Ultra Variants are launched.
 
morrisond
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 2:08 pm

airbazar wrote:
2025 is only 6 years from now. Airbus' lineup will be exactly the same as it is today.


I mentioned up above in Production or in development. If they don't launch anything new by 2025 I think they could be in big trouble.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:18 pm

I think

A350-1100 will come
A330NEo struggles on
A320 line gets an A322 maybe even a new wing for it

A successor for the A330 will be announced and in development. (bit smaller less range - say something like a modern A300-600R++)
 
morrisond
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:32 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Replace larger A320 series and A330 series with 7W Carbon Oval fuselage to take over from A321 on the low end, A339 on the high end. Use A380 facilities to build this while keeping Legacy Plants pumping out A320 series as long as there is a market.



You mean the "me too" path because Airbus doesn't have any original ideas and when they sorta do they read the tea leaves wrong (A380)?


No not at all - As they have the 5W Modern very light C-series cross section to me it almost makes more sense that Airbus builds a 7W cross section more than Boeing.

A 6W A320 replacement seems too close to what the C-Series could potentially become - which is a very light NSA competitor if Boeing chooses 7W for NMA/NSA.
 
pdp
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:40 pm

A220: Airlines will buy this by the bucket-load and then ground them all as they wait for replacement engines.

A32X: Airbus will keep finding bits of spare fuselage around Toulouse to tack-on until they've created an aircraft so long it manages to be at the origin and destination at once. And it'll still have single-axle main gear.

A330: European airlines will buy this because they'd feel guilty if they didn't.

A350: Another candidate for seeing how long Airbus can make it. There'll also be a special variant where they replace the entire cargo hold and cabin with ACT tanks to try and win the range contest over Boeing.

A380: EK will still be arguing about the engines on their order.
 
morrisond
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:58 pm

morrisond wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Replace larger A320 series and A330 series with 7W Carbon Oval fuselage to take over from A321 on the low end, A339 on the high end. Use A380 facilities to build this while keeping Legacy Plants pumping out A320 series as long as there is a market.



You mean the "me too" path because Airbus doesn't have any original ideas and when they sorta do they read the tea leaves wrong (A380)?


No not at all - As they have the 5W Modern very light C-series cross section to me it almost makes more sense that Airbus builds a 7W cross section more than Boeing.

A 6W A320 replacement seems too close to what the C-Series could potentially become - which is a very light NSA competitor if Boeing chooses 7W for NMA/NSA.


However if Boeing chooses 8W for NMA I see Airbus just rewinging A320 and stretching it (with A330 sticking around to fight NMA on price)as they probably won't have to fight an NSA for some time.
 
emuwarveteran
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:16 pm

from a 2010 FlightGlobal article:

John Leahy, who is Airbus's chief operating officer customers, says that the proposed new A320 could be in service by 2015 and that any all-new single-aisle aircraft is unlikely to arrive before 2024-25. "With re-engined aircraft there is usually an overlap of a few years with the new aircraft - this is what Boeing did with the 737NG - so it will have a life of at least 10 years."
(source)
CL CRJ9, W6 A320
 
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Slug71
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:47 pm

I think it will be mostly the same as today with the possibility of a A220-500 and A350-1100/2000.
I think the 2030s might bring us a A320 replacement.
 
tealnz
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 9:40 pm

Airbus have already signalled some it quite clearly:
- short term the 321XLR for extended range narrow body (maybe it becomes the standard A321 configuration - does away with the ACTs)
- In slower time they do a new CFRP wing - presumably becoming the standard wing for A321 and a stretched A322. Airbus are on the record about having early development work under way on the wing
- upper end of the NMA segment is less clear. If they want to differentiate from a seven-abreast NMA with minimal cargo capacity they still have the option of a rewinged A300/310 using A330neo systems - which they would presumably brand as part of the A330neo series
- and they have already acknowledged that technically they could do a further A350 stretch - but they will presumably hold off until a new geared fan is available
 
aviationaware
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sat Feb 16, 2019 11:44 pm

pdp wrote:
A220: Airlines will buy this by the bucket-load and then ground them all as they wait for replacement engines.

A32X: Airbus will keep finding bits of spare fuselage around Toulouse to tack-on until they've created an aircraft so long it manages to be at the origin and destination at once. And it'll still have single-axle main gear.

A330: European airlines will buy this because they'd feel guilty if they didn't.

A350: Another candidate for seeing how long Airbus can make it. There'll also be a special variant where they replace the entire cargo hold and cabin with ACT tanks to try and win the range contest over Boeing.

A380: EK will still be arguing about the engines on their order.


All I can read is butt hurt.
 
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reidar76
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sun Feb 17, 2019 12:13 am

Airbus owns 50.01% of the A220 and 50.00% of ATR. Since Airbus doesn't have a majority ownership of ATR everybody seems to forget about this record selling turboprop that is manufactured and assembled in Toulouse.

I think that the next clean sheet for Airbus is a new CFRP turboprop, one that comes with a choice of traditional or electric engines, and has super laminar flow wings.

Additionally, Airbus will get the A321XLR in service and launch the A350neo (ultrafan) before 2025.

I think that a stretch of the A220-300 will be announced in 2026. That's the year Airbus has the right to buy out Bombardier and take full ownership of the A220 program.

A possible A350-2000 will also come after 2025, maybe a launch before 2025.
 
pdp
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sun Feb 17, 2019 10:42 am

aviationaware wrote:
pdp wrote:
A220: Airlines will buy this by the bucket-load and then ground them all as they wait for replacement engines.

A32X: Airbus will keep finding bits of spare fuselage around Toulouse to tack-on until they've created an aircraft so long it manages to be at the origin and destination at once. And it'll still have single-axle main gear.

A330: European airlines will buy this because they'd feel guilty if they didn't.

A350: Another candidate for seeing how long Airbus can make it. There'll also be a special variant where they replace the entire cargo hold and cabin with ACT tanks to try and win the range contest over Boeing.

A380: EK will still be arguing about the engines on their order.


All I can read is butt hurt.


And all I can read is someone not taking a joke!
 
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LA704
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:07 am

What about an A330-1000 for regional routes and a package freighter version of it for the likes of FX, DHL or Amazon?
318 319 320 321 332 343 722 731 732 735 73G 742 744 752 762 763 77W M11
 
chiad
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:21 am

A220-100NEO
A220-300NEO
A220-500(NEO)
A320.5(NEO)
A321NEO/LR
A321XLR
A322
A330-900NEO
A350-900NEO
A350-1000NEO
A350-1100/2000
 
dean
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sun Feb 17, 2019 12:09 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if around 2025, the A380 program was back on the table with new engine options and cabin solutions.

Also I wouldn't be surprised if by 2025, Airbus (and Boeing) lineup had a lot less peer pressure from the ME3(2) and a lot more from Chinese and other Asian airlines.
Airbus made a great deal buying the C-Series program and by 2025 I see them having multiple variations added to the A220 family to meet the demand of Asian operators.

I don't see many changes in the A320 family by 2025. The NEO backlog is HUGE! There are cca 5890 aircraft to be built and delivered, and considering the fact that in 2018 Airbus delivered 386 A320 family NEO aircraft, it's gonna keep them busy for a long time!

I expect the A330NEO to remain on the list for the next 6 years.

In my opinion, the A350 family won't see big changes either. The large and very large aircraft market is in a progress of a change. We might not see the destination of this change, however we can see for sure the origin of it. Market was driven by a very few large customers and now some sort of consolidation is in progress. The 777X does not perform well in terms of sales, the A380 program seems to stop at just above 250 unites (Airbus forecasted 1000+ at launch). Airbus and Boeing will not rush with clean sheet programs or heavy modification of a current design (eg A350-2000 with new wings, etc). Airbus still have to sell a lot more A350s and since it's still a fresh product, I think by 2025 it'll see minor upgrades only.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sun Feb 17, 2019 12:43 pm

I'm expecting a new A330NEO replacement to launch as a response to the 797. In 2 years time I expect the A330NEO to get minimal new orders and the production rate will be cut making it production loss.

The end result will be something half way between the A300 and A330-800 in terms of dimensions and weights. It will have a new carbon wing, the centre section and landing gear will be at A300 size and weight. It will retain the A330 aluminium tube and use the 797 engines or the loser of the 797 engine contract.

It will fit 767 code D gates. Retain the comfy 8ab tube with LD3s while allowing the tight 9ab for the low cost carriers.
 
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Slash787
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:07 pm

A330neo will remain

A longer range for A350-1000

A350neo

CS500

Something new to compete with the B797
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:12 pm

chiad wrote:
A220-100NEO
A220-300NEO
A220-500(NEO)
A320.5(NEO)
A321NEO/LR
A321XLR
A322
A330-900NEO
A350-900NEO
A350-1000NEO
A350-1100/2000


The stuff of fantasy and not reality. Maybe something like that by 2030.

Don't forget:

Brexit problems.
Ultra Fan problems like LEAP and GTF. The will happen.
Inability to procure enough 3D printing machines in a timely manner.
Inability to scale production fast enough to lower costs.
The list goes on.

The bottom line is, where does Airbus (and RR) get the capital for all these toys within five years? They won't.
© 2020. All statements are my own. The use of my statements, including by journalists, YouTube vloggers like "DJ's Aviation", etc. without my written consent is strictly prohibited.
 
WIederling
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:17 pm

StudiodeKadent wrote:
The A319 is dead/useless, especially given the SHARP package can make the A320neo have much better field performance.


Isn't SHARP available for the full range A319 ... A321?
( the improved runway performance package mandatory on the 737-900NG is available and used on the -800 too afaik and all that jazz )

Does SHARP have downsides? ( beyond cost )
Murphy is an optimist
 
ewt340
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:18 pm

1. A220 stays the same and maybe neo in 2030-2040.
2. New Clean sheet for A32X replacement in 2030-2040
3. A350neo take over the Airbus Widebody market with A350-800 with less powerful engines and smaller wings to replace A330neo, A350-900neo, A350-1000neo or simple stretched A350-1000neo.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:12 pm

WIederling wrote:

Isn't SHARP available for the full range A319 ... A321?
( the improved runway performance package mandatory on the 737-900NG is available and used on the -800 too afaik and all that jazz )

Does SHARP have downsides? ( beyond cost )


Everything I've read about SHARP says its for the A320neo.

I haven't heard anything else on what the downsides of it may be.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:50 pm

chiad wrote:
A320.5(NEO)
A321NEO/LR
A321XLR
A322


There’s lots of talk on this forum of these possibilities. I’m kind of surprised these images haven’t been posted yet

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

These ideas have been floating around on this forum for years. We had a pretty good discussion 3 years ago

viewtopic.php?t=1342155

Discussions regarding the A322 have been around for at least 6 years

viewtopic.php?t=561869

So far Airbus has taken the approach of modest MTOW increases to the A321 and A330 over the years. By 2025 the strategy of MTOW and new engines likely will change. My big question is when will Airbus shift its strategy to include fuselage changes? They have been resistant to do that ever since the A318.
 
WIederling
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:24 pm

StudiodeKadent wrote:
WIederling wrote:

Isn't SHARP available for the full range A319 ... A321?
( the improved runway performance package mandatory on the 737-900NG is available and used on the -800 too afaik and all that jazz )

Does SHARP have downsides? ( beyond cost )


Everything I've read about SHARP says its for the A320neo.

I haven't heard anything else on what the downsides of it may be.


Yup. I was expecting more than there is:
viewtopic.php?t=1366049

On the other hand: I don't see much reason for SHARP being unfit for the full family.
Murphy is an optimist
 
brindabella
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:33 pm

morrisond wrote:
With the Cancellation of the A380 and development essentially completed on all their models - where does Airbus go next?

...

The benefit to this is then Airbus has three modern Cross Sections (5W,7W,9W) that they can use to build almost any number/size of derivatives.

...
At some point COMAC could be a real competitor (at least in Asia/Silk Road) and production cost will be an even bigger issue than it is today.
...

In your opinion what do you think the line-up looks like in 2025?


First, thanks for two highly-relevant & timely threads!

But also please forgive all the snipping I undertook above - purely done for emphasis.
Two observations:

1. (5W,7W,9W).Years ago I was one of those who proffered the thought that BA would be "going back to the future" - basically redoing the 757/767 pair again, although this time the 757 MarkII would be a very very lean 6ab ...
and I considered a "squeezy" 8ab to be the way to go for the 767 MarkII.
(Both CFRP etc etc of course).
I was roundly taken to task as being unable to grasp the very simple arithmetic governing fuse efficiency in terms of cross-section; especially that the single-aisle leads-to the most efficient passenger packing which is possible under the Emergency-Evac rules.

I thought I had demonstrated that the MOM space was such that the 767 MarkII (so to speak) was a long way above the single-aisles in terms of ultimate passenger capacity (fuse-length <=> "fineness ratio"), but to little effect. Now however it would seem that the mighty BA is very serious about a MOM.
But everything so far known seems to indicate a 7ab on a cruel diet aimed-at reducing weight and frontal area (wetted-area).

However the geometric rules being rubbed-into my face so long ago have not gone-away; and your formula of (5W,7W,9W) seems vulnerable to me. The 9W is fine; but maybe not the other two.

Despite what others have so ably delineated about the 8ab being much more viable than the 7ab, (RJMAZ EG); nevertheless BA are (apparently) going 7ab anyway.
Why so?

I suspect that the BA trade-offs show that over most of the applicable ranges:
"a good 9ab will always defeat a good 8ab".

And I suspect that it will similarly transpire that:
"a good 6ab will always defeat a good 5ab".


2. May prove somewhat premature - look at the trouble that the MRJ has caused Mitsubishi! A company with the highest Engineering credentials coming from a Nation - same same. It seems to demonstrate again what BA showed with their attempt to outsource advanced Engineering for the 787 - vis: "building successful modern Airliners is very very hard!".


What do you think?

cheers
Billy
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:19 pm

morrisond wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Replace larger A320 series and A330 series with 7W Carbon Oval fuselage to take over from A321 on the low end, A339 on the high end. Use A380 facilities to build this while keeping Legacy Plants pumping out A320 series as long as there is a market.



You mean the "me too" path because Airbus doesn't have any original ideas and when they sorta do they read the tea leaves wrong (A380)?


No not at all - As they have the 5W Modern very light C-series cross section to me it almost makes more sense that Airbus builds a 7W cross section more than Boeing.

A 6W A320 replacement seems too close to what the C-Series could potentially become - which is a very light NSA competitor if Boeing chooses 7W for NMA/NSA.


aviationaware wrote:
pdp wrote:


Airbus could strike back with the biggest, meanest, outsize twin aisle cheating, cargo lovin moonshot Narrow Body on Steroids, since the DC8-73 was (kick'n & scream'n) pushed into the desert..

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
YIMBY
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:00 pm

I'd bet there will be nothing new but derivatives for Airbus jets by 2025.
At best there may be rewing, in case carbon wing will give substantial benefits, i.e. 322 with larger wing or 330 with smaller wing.

However, if ATR counts as Airbus (50 % true) a new turboprop is the most likely next greenfield airliner in Europe.
 
ewt340
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:16 pm

Although, I do see some modifications for A321neo lineup:

Image
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:24 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Although, I do see some modifications for A321neo lineup:

Image


I think a stretch has to be substantial in terms of capacity / payload to make ROI for the OE. Airlines want to invest if the revenue potential is there. I think that means at least 3 rows / 3m for a NB.

In between the A320 and A321 there is 7 seatrows/7m. But that is an exceptional large capacity jump.

For stability/ CG reasons there usually is a small plug aft of the wing and a ~50% bigger one in front.

For the A320 series it makes sense think in multiples of AKH container dept too.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
morrisond
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:49 pm

brindabella wrote:
morrisond wrote:
With the Cancellation of the A380 and development essentially completed on all their models - where does Airbus go next?

...

The benefit to this is then Airbus has three modern Cross Sections (5W,7W,9W) that they can use to build almost any number/size of derivatives.

...
At some point COMAC could be a real competitor (at least in Asia/Silk Road) and production cost will be an even bigger issue than it is today.
...

In your opinion what do you think the line-up looks like in 2025?


First, thanks for two highly-relevant & timely threads!

But also please forgive all the snipping I undertook above - purely done for emphasis.
Two observations:

1. (5W,7W,9W).Years ago I was one of those who proffered the thought that BA would be "going back to the future" - basically redoing the 757/767 pair again, although this time the 757 MarkII would be a very very lean 6ab ...
and I considered a "squeezy" 8ab to be the way to go for the 767 MarkII.
(Both CFRP etc etc of course).
I was roundly taken to task as being unable to grasp the very simple arithmetic governing fuse efficiency in terms of cross-section; especially that the single-aisle leads-to the most efficient passenger packing which is possible under the Emergency-Evac rules.

I thought I had demonstrated that the MOM space was such that the 767 MarkII (so to speak) was a long way above the single-aisles in terms of ultimate passenger capacity (fuse-length <=> "fineness ratio"), but to little effect. Now however it would seem that the mighty BA is very serious about a MOM.
But everything so far known seems to indicate a 7ab on a cruel diet aimed-at reducing weight and frontal area (wetted-area).

However the geometric rules being rubbed-into my face so long ago have not gone-away; and your formula of (5W,7W,9W) seems vulnerable to me. The 9W is fine; but maybe not the other two.

Despite what others have so ably delineated about the 8ab being much more viable than the 7ab, (RJMAZ EG); nevertheless BA are (apparently) going 7ab anyway.
Why so?

I suspect that the BA trade-offs show that over most of the applicable ranges:
"a good 9ab will always defeat a good 8ab".

And I suspect that it will similarly transpire that:
"a good 6ab will always defeat a good 5ab".


2. May prove somewhat premature - look at the trouble that the MRJ has caused Mitsubishi! A company with the highest Engineering credentials coming from a Nation - same same. It seems to demonstrate again what BA showed with their attempt to outsource advanced Engineering for the 787 - vis: "building successful modern Airliners is very very hard!".


What do you think?

cheers



I think Carbon Ovals can change the game. Look in my Boeing 2025 Thread - A 7w oval is only 25% more surface area than A320 with 50% more premium seating and 50%+ more cargo volume.
 
morrisond
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:51 pm

YIMBY wrote:
I'd bet there will be nothing new but derivatives for Airbus jets by 2025.
At best there may be rewing, in case carbon wing will give substantial benefits, i.e. 322 with larger wing or 330 with smaller wing.

However, if ATR counts as Airbus (50 % true) a new turboprop is the most likely next greenfield airliner in Europe.


Sorry I didn't make it clear - in production or in development by 2025
 
ewt340
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:21 pm

keesje wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Although, I do see some modifications for A321neo lineup:

Image


I think a stretch has to be substantial in terms of capacity / payload to make ROI for the OE. Airlines want to invest if the revenue potential is there. I think that means at least 3 rows / 3m for a NB.

In between the A320 and A321 there is 7 seatrows/7m. But that is an exceptional large capacity jump.

For stability/ CG reasons there usually is a small plug aft of the wing and a ~50% bigger one in front.

For the A320 series it makes sense think in multiples of AKH container dept too.


Well we gotta look at the maximum capacity too. A simple 3 frames stretch (63") on A321neo would make it possible to add 2 extra row. Each frame is around 21" in width. Which bring the max capacity to 250 for LCC. Which mean they would only need to use 5 FA. If they seated more than 250 seats, they need at least 6 FA.

Also, A321 have 3 or 4 pairs of doors. Those 7m stretch are not just usable floorspace. There are 44 seat difference between the 2 on LCC configs. Which equal to 7.3 rows.
For A320neo+ I think they only need 3 extra frames to get similar floorspace as B737MAX8.

But do they really need to stretch A320neo?
I mean the max passengers allowed on A320neo are 189. They could do 186 seats on 28" pitch.
And big chunks of A320neo order come from LCC.

22% of A320's orders come from LCC.
45% of A320neo's orders come from LCC.

And while many LCC also use B737MAX8, A320neo outsold them by 700-800 orders. Which suggested that the 28" seat pitch and the 186 seat are working well for many LCC around the world.
B737MAX8 could carry 200 passengers with extra door at the rear part of the cabin. But that's just add weight and waste space. Compact configurations is the way to go.

The future for domestic and short regional flights are in LCC. Not in Full Service Airlines. Both Airbus and Boeing know that. And what Airbus should do is to get modifications on the R1 door on A320neo and moves it further near the cockpit by eliminating the front galleys to accomodate 3 extra seats and brings the seat counts up to 189.
 
ewt340
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:04 am

So, 189 seats modification on A320neo sounds easier and more logical rather than to stretched it:

Image
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:29 am

I think 28-29 inch pitch combined with flat seats is simply unacceptable for some airlines. Not every airline flies their aircraft to the max. E.g Southwest doesn't sell 200 seats in their 738s. It has to do with lav rates, flight lenghts, branding, fleet commonality and catering concepts too. You can't stuff 200 hot meals + drinks, waste and tax free in half a galley.

I think a 3-4 meter stretch for an A320 would make possible close to 200 seats with 3 crew, decent lavatories, full size galley and 30-31 inch minimum seat pitch for all. Create a few extra seat rows if you are flying dual class. Airlines might want to replace their aging A320 fleets by something slightly bigger instead of ordering the same fuselage for the next 20-25 years.

Image

I think the main reasons Airbus was able to ignore airline demand for a A320 Plus, are
- A320/321 sold like hotcakes anyway
- looking at A320 payload range, the A320 seems pretty optimized for its payload - range.

Simply adding a few meters & 24 passengers (4-5t) to the A320 for a A320Plus would dramatically reduce range and payload.

A simple A321 shrink could be overkill (weight, efficiency).

A more significant A320Plus modification (time money) would be required to match A320/A321 ranges and efficiency..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
ewt340
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:32 am

Southwest, GOL and JetBlue are the upmarket version of LCC and JetBlue have big percentages of premium seating on their aircraft.
Southwest pitch is around 32", on B737-700 it's 31".
New JetBlue pitch is 32" and 35"-37" for more space.
GOL pitch is around 31" and they have premium heavy configurations as well.

Air Asia using the nex gen thin seat, which allowed them to get 29"-30" pitch with 186 seats on their A320neo.
Ryanair would use the 200 seating configurations on their MAX8. Seat pitch would be 28" and extra pair of door would be installed just like the one in B737-900ER.

EasyJet pitch is 29" again for 186 seats on the new configurations.
Lion Air pitch is 29" on most aircraft except on B737-800 which have 31" (mainly because of the 189 seat limit).

Indigo have pitch their new A320neo, they have 186 seats. They said the pitch is around 30" but an article in 2017 suggested that some rows have 28" pitch and the new seat configurations in neo help reduces the number of those rows to just 7. So 7 rows have 28" pitch.

Other Airlines tend to follow the 180-186 seats rule on A320/A320neo.
Pitch could be improved to 29" if they uses the next gen thin economy class seat that LH currently uses on their A32X.

LCC carry some food and drinks to sold. But probably not as much as Full Service Airlines that served Food.
Also, replace doesn't mean increase capacity. In fact on some market, replace means cutting down on capacity.
 
YIMBY
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Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:29 am

morrisond wrote:
YIMBY wrote:
I'd bet there will be nothing new but derivatives for Airbus jets by 2025.
At best there may be rewing, in case carbon wing will give substantial benefits, i.e. 322 with larger wing or 330 with smaller wing.

However, if ATR counts as Airbus (50 % true) a new turboprop is the most likely next greenfield airliner in Europe.


Sorry I didn't make it clear - in production or in development by 2025


It depends how we define "in development" which is quite a gradual process.

If it is
1) officially announced, approved development funds by the board, prototypes being constructed and well specified airliners being firmly offered to airlines I am afraid not to hear of any cleansheet jet for Airbus by 2025 (and particularly not see a flying prototype)
2) unpublished internal studies done with paper and computers, including confidential discussions with clients and suppliers and fancy leaks to the public, I am sure that they already have quite detailed CAD pictures for all technically realistic options including those speculated here, with some estimates for the performance, production chain, costs, price, development efforts, market demand etc, and those are continuously updated and deepened if some boss gives authorization and even without when the engineers have time to spend.

And we know that airplanes deeply in development have not always entered production (or entered much later with substantial modifications).

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