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VS11
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:18 pm

keesje wrote:
VS11 wrote:

Nothing new really. We have known about Boeing’s dilemma for over a decade now. We are still waiting for Boeing’s move.


Everything changed.

- 737 lost marketshare since MAX launch
- 737-7 & 737-9 had to be upgraded to keep customers
- Airbus bought A220 & started selling, working toward 14/month in a few years
- Boeing invested in Embraer
- "w'll stay with you whatever happens" customers are a dying breed
- A321 remains a runaway success with little competition
- airlines refused to put money on the table for an oval WB at NB costs
- https://imgproc.airliners.net/photos/airliners/1/1/4/5546411.jpg?v=v41c6a913980
- Big MAX customer are scratching their heads. https://www.npr.org/2019/06/10/731385440/poll-shows-travelers-still-fear-737-max-as-boeing-tries-to-get-it-back-in-the-ai?t=1560514234055


Marketplace is always changing. But in terms of how to respond, Boeing’s dilemma has been the same for the past decade - clean sheet NSA? Clean sheet NMA? Can one design fit both markets? I remember these same questions discussed here for a long time.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:11 pm

Revelation wrote:
VS11 wrote:
keesje wrote:


Nothing new really. We have known about Boeing’s dilemma for over a decade now. We are still waiting for Boeing’s move.

I think a pivot of NMA to NSA right now would be like an investor selling on bad news, which is a bad strategy.

I think the way Boeing can recover financially and reputationally is to reboot MAX and then monetize its backlog.

Given the duopoly status and the difficulty of breaking contracts I don't see how they won't be able to do that, barring another tragedy.

As above, pivoting to NSA now would indeed cause a terrible customer backlash and be financially ruinous.

Also they will not have sufficiently advanced technological content or manufacturing processes, so a pivot to NSA could end up be a terrible failure.

But all of this does make for good click bait.


I agree completely. Despite the rhetoric in the grounding thread (won't fly again, for years, etc.), it would seem that the logical outcome would be a return to service this year, some lost ground/orders, gradual acceptance/forgiveness by the traveling public, and money [albeit less] flowing in again. It'll leave a mark, but not a mortal wound. Honestly, the idea that Boeing should scrap an aircraft or write it off now when it has many thousands in backlog seems ludicrous and more wishful thinking on the part of those who'd enjoy dancing on it's grave.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:26 pm

keesje wrote:
- airlines refused to put money on the table for an oval WB at NB costs

Baloney, they were never given the opportunity. DL's CEO has already offered to be the NMA launch customer and very well might end up being so.

VS11 wrote:
Marketplace is always changing. But in terms of how to respond, Boeing’s dilemma has been the same for the past decade - clean sheet NSA? Clean sheet NMA? Can one design fit both markets? I remember these same questions discussed here for a long time.

And the risk is the same, spend $billions developing NSA with current gen engines, materials and manufacturing technology, only to watch competitors use next gen tech a few years later.
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:21 pm

Everybody needs to remember that while Boeing really can't talk about its strategy until the MAX is back in the air, it doesn't have to stop executing on the strategy.

We don't know what is happening with NMA. Everything that has been used as evidence in this thread, including the articles, is speculation. Boeing has been (quite properly IMO) silent. We will find out much more in 2020 when (everybody hopes) the MAX has been flying for several months without further incident and Boeing is in a position where it can publicly look forward.
 
itchief
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:49 pm

seabosdca wrote:
Everybody needs to remember that while Boeing really can't talk about its strategy until the MAX is back in the air, it doesn't have to stop executing on the strategy.

We don't know what is happening with NMA. Everything that has been used as evidence in this thread, including the articles, is speculation. Boeing has been (quite properly IMO) silent. We will find out much more in 2020 when (everybody hopes) the MAX has been flying for several months without further incident and Boeing is in a position where it can publicly look forward.



Mullenburg's quote from an Aviation Week article that came out today, 14 June 2019.

How much has the MAX situation delayed your decision to move forward on launching a new midmarket airplane, the NMA? "We’re doing risk-reduction work that protects a 2025 entry into service, but we’ll make the decision [to launch] when we’re ready."

Has Boeing felt customer pressure to evolve the NMA concept into more of a 737 clean-sheet replacement? "The MAX will be a very important part of that for decades to come-—we’ve got about 4,400 MAXs in backlog."

This sounds like Boeing has broken it's silence on the future of the MAX and the NMA and how it will be moving forward. Of course anything can change in the future.

Link to the article - https://aviationweek.com/paris-airshow- ... automation
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:33 pm

itchief wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
Everybody needs to remember that while Boeing really can't talk about its strategy until the MAX is back in the air, it doesn't have to stop executing on the strategy.

We don't know what is happening with NMA. Everything that has been used as evidence in this thread, including the articles, is speculation. Boeing has been (quite properly IMO) silent. We will find out much more in 2020 when (everybody hopes) the MAX has been flying for several months without further incident and Boeing is in a position where it can publicly look forward.



Mullenburg's quote from an Aviation Week article that came out today, 14 June 2019.

How much has the MAX situation delayed your decision to move forward on launching a new midmarket airplane, the NMA? "We’re doing risk-reduction work that protects a 2025 entry into service, but we’ll make the decision [to launch] when we’re ready."

Has Boeing felt customer pressure to evolve the NMA concept into more of a 737 clean-sheet replacement? "The MAX will be a very important part of that for decades to come-—we’ve got about 4,400 MAXs in backlog."

This sounds like Boeing has broken it's silence on the future of the MAX and the NMA and how it will be moving forward. Of course anything can change in the future.

Link to the article - https://aviationweek.com/paris-airshow- ... automation


I've read the full article. Frankly I was amazed by some of the Muilenburg comments & statements. E.g. on the MAX.
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BUFJACK10
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:24 am

airzona11 wrote:
Boeing has 1000s of planes on order. Stock is going up. Is there a need for Boeing to launch something new?

Customers dictate what a manufacturer will produce. Stock price is a result of how well they are able to meet customer needs. If you don’t have foresight and think what you have now is sufficient for the future, you won’t have a company.
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airzona11
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:17 pm

BUFJACK10 wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
Boeing has 1000s of planes on order. Stock is going up. Is there a need for Boeing to launch something new?

Customers dictate what a manufacturer will produce. Stock price is a result of how well they are able to meet customer needs. If you don’t have foresight and think what you have now is sufficient for the future, you won’t have a company.


Stock price is not meeting customers needs. It’s expected cash from meeting tomorrow’s needs. My point is around and Boeing are the only options in town. Hence why the 737 and A320 have been their work horses for decades.
 
VC10er
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:58 am

A thought (or idea) from someone who knows very little but understands some of the hurdles- from everything I’ve read here.
Two different- but not extremely different aircraft frames are needed from Boeing (maybe Airbus too)
a new NMA and ultimately a new NSA.
ROUGHLY each type of aircraft are offered at about 3/4 different sizes: 788, 789, 78X, A319, A320, A321 etc (I know some are only 1 or 2)

General opinion is the 737 has been MAXed out. No more tinkering.

Tinkering costs less than clean sheet
Wing size, landing gear and engine seem to this novice to be “some” of the parts that limit steps to the next size.

Expensive but possible? Could multiple fuselages, wings and gears and engines be designed (clean sheet) to cover in order to build a broader array of 797? Lego an aircraft? So size, power, range can be achieved by having 4-6 fuselage in narrow and oval, 1 of 3 wings, gears and engines so semi-bespoke 797s can be built to cover many missions from 737 to 767 seat count and ranges?
Versus 2 clean sheets
Versus 798, 799, 79X
Crazy thought, I get most of the “NO’s” but less than 20 years ago I never thought I’d be typing this on my iPhone computer.
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Tue Jul 02, 2019 4:48 pm

VC10er wrote:
A thought (or idea) from someone who knows very little but understands some of the hurdles- from everything I’ve read here.
Two different- but not extremely different aircraft frames are needed from Boeing (maybe Airbus too)
a new NMA and ultimately a new NSA.
ROUGHLY each type of aircraft are offered at about 3/4 different sizes: 788, 789, 78X, A319, A320, A321 etc (I know some are only 1 or 2)

General opinion is the 737 has been MAXed out. No more tinkering.

Tinkering costs less than clean sheet
Wing size, landing gear and engine seem to this novice to be “some” of the parts that limit steps to the next size.

Expensive but possible? Could multiple fuselages, wings and gears and engines be designed (clean sheet) to cover in order to build a broader array of 797? Lego an aircraft? So size, power, range can be achieved by having 4-6 fuselage in narrow and oval, 1 of 3 wings, gears and engines so semi-bespoke 797s can be built to cover many missions from 737 to 767 seat count and ranges?
Versus 2 clean sheets
Versus 798, 799, 79X
Crazy thought, I get most of the “NO’s” but less than 20 years ago I never thought I’d be typing this on my iPhone computer.


It might be possible from a technical standpoint. But it leads to suboptimization. And you still need to develop, test and certify each combination. In todays environment, you can not win with a suboptimized type longer term.

For Boeing I guess they are slowly coming to the conclusion that to be competitive 130-180 seats on flights up to 3 hours/1500NM you need something real lean, quiet, flexible and ready for the engines that offer that for the next 30-40 years. And that aircraft doesn't look like a 737-7.5.

Image
https://m.planespotters.net/photo/82881 ... -737-7-max

So they have to do something. Or accept loosing e.g the Southwest 737-700 replacement orders.

P.S. it doesn't look like an A319 either, but A was less self confident and bought a solution.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:26 pm

I think the two-frame idea has merit, but 3-4 variants of each is too much. Two lengths of each should be sufficient. Use common systems and even subassemblies to the extent possible. If Boeing can find the resources do this, I think they've got a compelling plan for several decades.

6Y NSA - 737 size fuselage with longer gear, folding wings, 36 m folded, 41 m unfolded
NSA-8: 200 pax max pack, 180 pax comfortable single-class, OEW 43 t, MTOW 85-90 t, 3200-4200 nm range depending on MTOW
NSA-9: 260 pax max pack, 225 pax comfortable single class, OEW 48 t, MTOW 92 t, 3000 nm range

7Y NMA - ovoid fuselage closer to A320 than 767 size, 44 m fixed wing (it's a Group IV aircraft no matter what)
NMA-8: 250 pax max pack, 180 pax in typical international configuration, OEW 58 t, MTOW 115 t, 5500 nm range
NMA-9: 300 pax max pack, 220 pax in typical international configuration, OEW 63 t, MTOW 115 t, 4200 nm range
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:40 pm

seabosdca wrote:
I think the two-frame idea has merit, but 3-4 variants of each is too much. Two lengths of each should be sufficient. Use common systems and even subassemblies to the extent possible. If Boeing can find the resources do this, I think they've got a compelling plan for several decades.

6Y NSA - 737 size fuselage with longer gear, folding wings, 36 m folded, 41 m unfolded
NSA-8: 200 pax max pack, 180 pax comfortable single-class, OEW 43 t, MTOW 85-90 t, 3200-4200 nm range depending on MTOW
NSA-9: 260 pax max pack, 225 pax comfortable single class, OEW 48 t, MTOW 92 t, 3000 nm range

7Y NMA - ovoid fuselage closer to A320 than 767 size, 44 m fixed wing (it's a Group IV aircraft no matter what)
NMA-8: 250 pax max pack, 180 pax in typical international configuration, OEW 58 t, MTOW 115 t, 5500 nm range
NMA-9: 300 pax max pack, 220 pax in typical international configuration, OEW 63 t, MTOW 115 t, 4200 nm range


I think the challenge already becomes visible, your NSA concept would be 7t heavier than todays A220-300, offered to Southwest as 737-700 <150 seat (3 cabin crew) replacement as we speak. A 7t OEW delta is too much..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Tue Jul 02, 2019 9:06 pm

For better or for worse, Boeing's offering in that size class is going to have to be the E195 E2. I can't see any scenario where it makes sense for Boeing to develop an all-new airliner optimized to cover that ground.

In any event I think Southwest is going to have to upgauge to survive, so I think the NSA-8 I propose would be an appropriate replacement for perhaps half of the 737-700 fleet.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:44 pm

Inbetween the E195 (<132 seats) and your NSA-8 (>180 seats) there would the core of the NB market, maybe 15.000 aircraft in the next 20 years.

Image

I think Boeing needs to offer something weighing ~40t empty, has the option to carry AKH's, future BPR 1:15-18 engines and flexibility of being produced globally, 20+% more efficient than current NB's.

Range at 180 seat high density should be 2000-2500NM to prevent over specification / weight.

At EIS a predictable OEW 39t A220-500 will be a market benchmark.. The A319 & 737-7 are toast already.
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RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:47 pm

90+% of 737 flights are under 1000nm.

In 10 years time an electric aircraft will easily be designed to fly that distance.

Designing a cleansheet short haul aircraft today that isn't electric would be extreme short term thinking. Imagine a new car company starting up today that wasn't fully electric it is unthinkable. We are seeing every performance and lap time record going to electric vehicles. We are seeing lifetime costs dropping fast.

That is why the 797 is criticial. The capability gap between between a 1000nm range electric aircraft and a 8000nm range 787 is huge. A small/medium ranged widebody can perform the longer flights currently done by the 737 and the shorter flights done by the 767/787 etc.
 
DDR
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:54 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
90+% of 737 flights are under 1000nm.

In 10 years time an electric aircraft will easily be designed to fly that distance.

Designing a cleansheet short haul aircraft today that isn't electric would be extreme short term thinking.

That is why the 797 is criticial. The capability gap between between a 1000nm range electric aircraft and a 8000nm range 787 is huge. A small medium ranged widebody can perform the longer flights currently done by the 737 and the shorter flights done by the 767/787 etc.


Dude, the problem is that it will be A LOT longer than 10 years before we have a 737 sized electric aircraft that can fly even 500 miles. Maybe small private aircraft (seating 2-3 people) might be available, but nothing as heavy as a passenger airliner.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Jul 03, 2019 12:06 am

RJMAZ wrote:
90+% of 737 flights are under 1000nm.

In 10 years time an electric aircraft will easily be designed to fly that distance.

Designing a cleansheet short haul aircraft today that isn't electric would be extreme short term thinking. Imagine a new car company starting up today that wasn't fully electric it is unthinkable. We are seeing every performance and lap time record going to electric vehicles. We are seeing lifetime costs dropping fast.

That is why the 797 is criticial. The capability gap between between a 1000nm range electric aircraft and a 8000nm range 787 is huge. A small/medium ranged widebody can perform the longer flights currently done by the 737 and the shorter flights done by the 767/787 etc.


Despite billions being invested everywhere, battery capacity/kg has grown slowly steadily over the last 25 years.

Basically doubling energy density every 10 years. Fuel has 100 times better density than todays best batteries.

For electrical flight with a good load, an explosive boost in battery capacity would be required, for which there are no signs.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/05/31/bjorns-corner-electric-aircraft-the-first-fall-on-the-hype-curve/
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Jul 03, 2019 12:33 am

keesje wrote:
Inbetween the E195 (<132 seats) and your NSA-8 (>180 seats) there would the core of the NB market, maybe 15.000 aircraft in the next 20 years.

Image

I think Boeing needs to offer something weighing ~40t empty, has the option to carry AKH's, future BPR 1:15-18 engines and flexibility of being produced globally, 20+% more efficient than current NB's.

Range at 180 seat high density should be 2000-2500NM to prevent over specification / weight.


What you propose is basically a 737-400 for the modern era.

I think most operators want this size of aircraft to be capable of 6-hour flights, even if they are not most of the missions.

And, more importantly, I think the market is steadily upgauging (something you are all too happy to point out when the focus is on the A321neo's advantage over the 737-10) and NSA makes no sense unless there can be a variant that's decisively larger than an A321. I think accommodating that size is honestly more important to NSA's chances than figuring out how to get it down to 737-7 size. (Part of that is that the E195 E2 can accommodate 146 seats, not the 132 you say.)
 
giblets
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:12 am

itchief wrote:

How much has the MAX situation delayed your decision to move forward on launching a new midmarket airplane, the NMA? "We’re doing risk-reduction work that protects a 2025 entry into service, but we’ll make the decision [to launch] when we’re ready."




De risking for earlier entry?! Only way you are going to do that is by taking out innovative new tech... that would have improved performance.
Sound familiar, rush to get something out and have a warmed up dinner instead of something new and ground breaking


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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:42 am

seabosdca wrote:
keesje wrote:
Inbetween the E195 (<132 seats) and your NSA-8 (>180 seats) there would the core of the NB market, maybe 15.000 aircraft in the next 20 years.

Image

I think Boeing needs to offer something weighing ~40t empty, has the option to carry AKH's, future BPR 1:15-18 engines and flexibility of being produced globally, 20+% more efficient than current NB's.

Range at 180 seat high density should be 2000-2500NM to prevent over specification / weight.


What you propose is basically a 737-400 for the modern era.

I think most operators want this size of aircraft to be capable of 6-hour flights, even if they are not most of the missions.

And, more importantly, I think the market is steadily upgauging (something you are all too happy to point out when the focus is on the A321neo's advantage over the 737-10) and NSA makes no sense unless there can be a variant that's decisively larger than an A321. I think accommodating that size is honestly more important to NSA's chances than figuring out how to get it down to 737-7 size. (Part of that is that the E195 E2 can accommodate 146 seats, not the 132 you say.)


I think up to 260 seats 3500NM incorporated in an NSA design, makes it a SUV where the bulk of flights is, 150 seats 2 class, 2-3 hours. If goes for a very capable NSA, the risk is there Airbus might dive under it with a very lean, optimized, 15 % cheaper to operate design. Maybe they already have.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Amiga500
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Jul 03, 2019 7:42 am

RJMAZ wrote:
In 10 years time an electric aircraft will easily be designed to fly that distance.


What?!? Energy density of batteries is nowhere near what it needs to be and recharge capacity is nowhere near what it needs to be.

Say an A320neo burns 2700 kg of fuel over 500 miles - and has a thermal efficiency of 60% or so - then that means at an energy density of 43 MJ/kg, you have used 69,660 MJ of useful energy in providing input to the propulsor(s) for flight.

Now, lets say the electric system has identical propulsive efficiency and perfect efficiency apart from that - and we live in an alternate universe where the energy density of batteries means TOW and LW are the same for carrying the same payload that 500 miles.

In a 60 minute turn around you still need to be recharging the aircraft at a rate of.... 19 MW! Yes, Nineteen MegaWatts.

... and meanwhile, back in our universe, the energy density of the best batteries are still an order of magnitude away from kerosene, so that 70 tonne take-off weight aircraft *might* be able to take-off, **maybe** perform a full circuit of the runway it has just departed and stretching credibility a bit perhaps perform a powered landing on the same runway. All the while carrying two pilots, a flight attendant and maybe even one lucky passenger.... then take the next 24 hrs to recharge to repeat the process the next day.


Folks going on about electric aircraft are simply not aware of, or not looking at, the numbers.



Now, a hybrid that has electric boost at take-off and climbout might be a go-er within 20 years where APU or battery power is used to augment the combustor, but that is a big might.



If you had said propfan - I might have seriously considered it - except with fuel prices no longer looking like the exponential growth of 15 years ago it seems to be back off the table.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Jul 03, 2019 8:14 am

oh and stumbled across this on my travels:

https://leehamnews.com/2010/12/10/737ng ... hess-game/

Interesting to see how the opinion aged.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Jul 03, 2019 8:41 am

DDR wrote:
Dude, the problem is that it will be A LOT longer than 10 years before we have a 737 sized electric aircraft that can fly even 500 miles. Maybe small private aircraft (seating 2-3 people) might be available, but nothing as heavy as a passenger airliner.
I heard peoppe say the same thing about electric cars 10 years ago and they were all proven wrong.


keesje wrote:
Despite billions being invested everywhere, battery capacity/kg has grown slowly steadily over the last 25 years.

Basically doubling energy density every 10 years. Fuel has 100 times better density than todays best batteries.

I do not deny that fuel has a better density. We aren't talking about flying 5000nm we are talking about a 500nm stage length. Very few narrowbody flights are over 1000nm, I was blown away when I looked it up.


Amiga500 wrote:
Now, a hybrid that has electric boost at take-off and climbout might be a go-er within 20 years where APU or battery power is used to augment the combustor, but that is a big might.

If you had said propfan - I might have seriously considered it - except with fuel prices no longer looking like the exponential growth of 15 years ago it seems to be back off the table.

You have described it perfectly. A range extender/ oversized APU in the tail will be a certainty. It can run on longer flights or if the aircraft has to divert.

Due to being optimised for ultra short haul the cruising speed is not very important. Mach 0.7 cruising speeds would increase efficiency with less drag and a lower wing sweep. It will definitely be a propfan/ducted fan and moving a large volume of air at a slower speed is much more efficient. To the average person it will look similar from the front as a typical turbofan but the engine will be very short. I expect it to have a minimum of four electric motors as the diameter will be very large.

The Boeing truss wing design with folding tips would likely. The electric aircraft will definitely be taking off at over double the Takeoff weight of a jet fuel powered aircraft flying the same distance. It will no doubt be heavy and will need big folding tips to fit into the current gates.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:12 am

Amiga500 wrote:
oh and stumbled across this on my travels:

https://leehamnews.com/2010/12/10/737ng ... hess-game/

Interesting to see how the opinion aged.


December 2010, Boeing was ultimately self confident. That lasted until June, here the same Albaugh at the Paris Airshow 2011: https://youtu.be/rJzRsodeYes?t=36. Shortly after, it became clear they had been sleeping at the wheel, only hearing what confirmed their strategy. Delta, Southwest warning them publicly, but were staunchly ignored. The market will wait for us until 2019. Then AA made the call nad Boeing have been fighting an uphill battle in the NB since.

I sense a bit of the same approach with the NMA as in 2011. Then all focus was at 787 issues, now at MAX issues. Maybe nobody can say the NMA business case stinks, after all the effort put into it? Bad for your position? Just sing along?

Market punches might be required to get Kevin & Mark not "sticking to the plan", looking for confirmation, but listening, adjusting. A few hard to hide MAX cancellations, Delta & United signing 100x A321XLR's, SouthWest 300x A223's, another MAX exposure, cracks in the backlog.. I can even see Trump not staying on the sideline, but helping out some way.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Jul 03, 2019 11:53 am

keesje wrote:
[

I sense a bit of the same approach with the NMA as in 2011. Then all focus was at 787 issues, now at MAX issues. Maybe nobody can say the NMA business case stinks, after all the effort put into it? Bad for your position? Just sing along?

Market punches might be required to get Kevin & Mark not "sticking to the plan", looking for confirmation, but listening, adjusting. A few hard to hide MAX cancellations, Delta & United signing 100x A321XLR's, SouthWest 300x A223's, another MAX exposure, cracks in the backlog.. I can even see Trump not staying on the sideline, but helping out some way.


United, Delta, Southwest shifting their future narrowbody operations towards an Airbus takes all strategy is a possibility.

It is also possible that the NMA gets launched at Farnborough next year with commitments from Air Canada, Delta, United, American, Copa, Qantas, Norwegian, Thomas Cook and Air Astana. The results could become disastrous for Airbus if Chinese airlines opt for the NMA over the A330neo resulting in that production line limping along at 3-4 planes a month. By the mid 2020s, Airbus could be scrambling to launch a new airplane since the 30+ year old A330neo and A321neo are outclassed by a third generation composite wing airplane using the latest engine technology.

If you think such a scenario is far fetched, remember the 1990s. McDonell Douglas installed new engines and aero tweaks for the MD-11 and MD90 just like the A330neo/A321neo strategy today whereas Boeing designed a new wing for the 737NG and built an all new 777. History could repeat and we all know what happened to the MD11 and MD90. Everything was looking great for in 1986 when the MD-11 launched with orders from 10 airlines.

Newbiepilot wrote:

Air Canada

In the context of Air Canada’s strategy to take some traffic out of the USA and connect via its international hubs, an aircraft of the NMA size could work for the Canadian carrier, says Ravinescu.
“That size of aircraft could fill in well with some of the cities that have the aspirations to connect international flights without connecting to a hub.”


https://leehamnews.com/2018/04/16/air-c ... d-for-nma/

Delta

Delta Air Lines and Boeing have discussed the possibility of the carrier launching the proposed New Mid-market Airplane (NMA), as Delta seeks a replacement for more than 100 ageing mid-market aircraft.

"We've had discussions with Boeing about being a potential launch customer," says Ed Bastian, chief executive of Delta, at the National Press Club in Washington DC today.



https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... an-449780/

United

United Airlines is considering the Airbus A330-800neo and Boeing New Mid-market Airplane (NMA) among options to replace its fleet of aging Boeing 757s and 767s.

The Chicago-based carrier is looking at replacements for its 77 757-200 and -300s, and 51 767-300ERs in the near term, a presentation by senior vice-president of finance, procurement and treasurer Gerry Laderman on 27 February shows.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-446322/

American

The carrier’s senior vice-president of integrated operations David Seymour says American’s 787 delivery timeline keeps an NMA order on the table, though he stresses American knows little about the NMA’s ultimate production timetable or final specification.

Still, Seymour says the NMA could perform well in the carrier’s network and could replace the same aircraft types as the 787.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... er-447664/

Copa

Copa Airlines is considering Boeing's planned New Mid-market Airplane (NMA), which it says could potentially provide additional capacity on its longest routes, chief executive Pedro Heilbron tells FlightGlobal.

The Panamanian carrier's interest in the NMA is significant, given that it has steadfastly stuck to a narrowbody fleet all this while. However, Heilbron says a more cost-efficient widebody could convince Copa to change its mind.

"The existing widebodies make no sense," he tells FlightGlobal ahead of the US Chamber of Commerce aviation summit in Washington DC.

"But the NMA might make sense for Copa, if it gives us more capacity and range in what we hope will be a much less expensive and easier to operate aircraft compared to the 787 or A330."


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... eo-446363/

Qantas

“Whether you’re running out of slots or whether you’re just looking to optimise capacity for the peak levels of demand... an airplane that has the flexibility to carry 20 to 30 per cent more people at the right time is going to be compelling," Mr Hulst said on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association's AMG in Sydney last week.

"Also, with the range capability to fly as far as somewhere like Japan, into and beyond places like Singapore, and secondary markets in South East Asia, it becomes a really compelling opportunity."


https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 4zkto.html

Norwegian

Norwegian is "very interested" in Boeing's proposed New Midsize Airplane design, says chief executive Bjorn Kjos.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... eo-438904/

Thomas Cook

Thomas Cook is 'definitely interested' in Boeing's potential 797 jet

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... debus.html

Air Astana

“It was a glimmer of an idea in Singapore. We now understand it’s more than just a glimmer of an idea,” Mr Foster says. “It is being very seriously debated with dates, times and production facilities now being talked about and thought about internally at Boeing. We love it. It would be brilliant for us.”

https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... ion-174725

I’m certain there are plenty more articles in non English publications.
]


We will see whose fantasy comes true. Reality will probably be in the middle.
 
morrisond
Posts: 1171
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Jul 03, 2019 12:14 pm

I think Boeing's future strategy is quite simple NSA/NMA done as a two wing/wingbox/gear/tail combined program using a tight light 7W fuselage - smallest size 200 seats all Y 31" pitch 3,000NM - largest size 5,000nm up to 300 seats all Y 31" pitch and then Boeing Brazil uses the same tech/control systems to do a really light 5W to take on the short range market up to 180 seats All Y 31" pitch up to 2,500NM.

That makes a lot more sense to me than 4W, 6W NSA and 7W NMA cross sections.
 
User avatar
keesje
Topic Author
Posts: 13017
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Jul 03, 2019 2:00 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
keesje wrote:
[

I sense a bit of the same approach with the NMA as in 2011. Then all focus was at 787 issues, now at MAX issues. Maybe nobody can say the NMA business case stinks, after all the effort put into it? Bad for your position? Just sing along?

Market punches might be required to get Kevin & Mark not "sticking to the plan", looking for confirmation, but listening, adjusting. A few hard to hide MAX cancellations, Delta & United signing 100x A321XLR's, SouthWest 300x A223's, another MAX exposure, cracks in the backlog.. I can even see Trump not staying on the sideline, but helping out some way.


United, Delta, Southwest shifting their future narrowbody operations towards an Airbus takes all strategy is a possibility.

It is also possible that the NMA gets launched at Farnborough next year with commitments from Air Canada, Delta, United, American, Copa, Qantas, Norwegian, Thomas Cook and Air Astana. The results could become disastrous for Airbus if Chinese airlines opt for the NMA over the A330neo resulting in that production line limping along at 3-4 planes a month. By the mid 2020s, Airbus could be scrambling to launch a new airplane since the 30+ year old A330neo and A321neo are outclassed by a third generation composite wing airplane using the latest engine technology.

If you think such a scenario is far fetched, remember the 1990s. McDonell Douglas installed new engines and aero tweaks for the MD-11 and MD90 just like the A330neo/A321neo strategy today whereas Boeing designed a new wing for the 737NG and built an all new 777. History could repeat and we all know what happened to the MD11 and MD90. Everything was looking great for in 1986 when the MD-11 launched with orders from 10 airlines.

Newbiepilot wrote:

Air Canada

In the context of Air Canada’s strategy to take some traffic out of the USA and connect via its international hubs, an aircraft of the NMA size could work for the Canadian carrier, says Ravinescu.
“That size of aircraft could fill in well with some of the cities that have the aspirations to connect international flights without connecting to a hub.”


https://leehamnews.com/2018/04/16/air-c ... d-for-nma/

Delta

Delta Air Lines and Boeing have discussed the possibility of the carrier launching the proposed New Mid-market Airplane (NMA), as Delta seeks a replacement for more than 100 ageing mid-market aircraft.

"We've had discussions with Boeing about being a potential launch customer," says Ed Bastian, chief executive of Delta, at the National Press Club in Washington DC today.



https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... an-449780/

United

United Airlines is considering the Airbus A330-800neo and Boeing New Mid-market Airplane (NMA) among options to replace its fleet of aging Boeing 757s and 767s.

The Chicago-based carrier is looking at replacements for its 77 757-200 and -300s, and 51 767-300ERs in the near term, a presentation by senior vice-president of finance, procurement and treasurer Gerry Laderman on 27 February shows.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-446322/

American

The carrier’s senior vice-president of integrated operations David Seymour says American’s 787 delivery timeline keeps an NMA order on the table, though he stresses American knows little about the NMA’s ultimate production timetable or final specification.

Still, Seymour says the NMA could perform well in the carrier’s network and could replace the same aircraft types as the 787.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... er-447664/

Copa

Copa Airlines is considering Boeing's planned New Mid-market Airplane (NMA), which it says could potentially provide additional capacity on its longest routes, chief executive Pedro Heilbron tells FlightGlobal.

The Panamanian carrier's interest in the NMA is significant, given that it has steadfastly stuck to a narrowbody fleet all this while. However, Heilbron says a more cost-efficient widebody could convince Copa to change its mind.

"The existing widebodies make no sense," he tells FlightGlobal ahead of the US Chamber of Commerce aviation summit in Washington DC.

"But the NMA might make sense for Copa, if it gives us more capacity and range in what we hope will be a much less expensive and easier to operate aircraft compared to the 787 or A330."


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... eo-446363/

Qantas

“Whether you’re running out of slots or whether you’re just looking to optimise capacity for the peak levels of demand... an airplane that has the flexibility to carry 20 to 30 per cent more people at the right time is going to be compelling," Mr Hulst said on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association's AMG in Sydney last week.

"Also, with the range capability to fly as far as somewhere like Japan, into and beyond places like Singapore, and secondary markets in South East Asia, it becomes a really compelling opportunity."


https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 4zkto.html

Norwegian

Norwegian is "very interested" in Boeing's proposed New Midsize Airplane design, says chief executive Bjorn Kjos.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... eo-438904/

Thomas Cook

Thomas Cook is 'definitely interested' in Boeing's potential 797 jet

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... debus.html

Air Astana

“It was a glimmer of an idea in Singapore. We now understand it’s more than just a glimmer of an idea,” Mr Foster says. “It is being very seriously debated with dates, times and production facilities now being talked about and thought about internally at Boeing. We love it. It would be brilliant for us.”

https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... ion-174725

I’m certain there are plenty more articles in non English publications.
]


We will see whose fantasy comes true. Reality will probably be in the middle.


Airlines moved on. Delta, American, Qantas, Norwegian, Air Astana put their money where their mouth is, while still being "interested" in a NMA.
https://www.aerotime.aero/parisaishow/22762-american-qantas-deals-lift-airbus-a321xlr-to-191-orders-already
United, Air Canada are left few options at this stage. I have also shown interest in the 2019 Audi RS6 Avant, but..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
LawAndOrder
Posts: 207
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:56 pm

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Jul 03, 2019 3:05 pm

keesje wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
keesje wrote:
[

I sense a bit of the same approach with the NMA as in 2011. Then all focus was at 787 issues, now at MAX issues. Maybe nobody can say the NMA business case stinks, after all the effort put into it? Bad for your position? Just sing along?

Market punches might be required to get Kevin & Mark not "sticking to the plan", looking for confirmation, but listening, adjusting. A few hard to hide MAX cancellations, Delta & United signing 100x A321XLR's, SouthWest 300x A223's, another MAX exposure, cracks in the backlog.. I can even see Trump not staying on the sideline, but helping out some way.


United, Delta, Southwest shifting their future narrowbody operations towards an Airbus takes all strategy is a possibility.

It is also possible that the NMA gets launched at Farnborough next year with commitments from Air Canada, Delta, United, American, Copa, Qantas, Norwegian, Thomas Cook and Air Astana. The results could become disastrous for Airbus if Chinese airlines opt for the NMA over the A330neo resulting in that production line limping along at 3-4 planes a month. By the mid 2020s, Airbus could be scrambling to launch a new airplane since the 30+ year old A330neo and A321neo are outclassed by a third generation composite wing airplane using the latest engine technology.

If you think such a scenario is far fetched, remember the 1990s. McDonell Douglas installed new engines and aero tweaks for the MD-11 and MD90 just like the A330neo/A321neo strategy today whereas Boeing designed a new wing for the 737NG and built an all new 777. History could repeat and we all know what happened to the MD11 and MD90. Everything was looking great for in 1986 when the MD-11 launched with orders from 10 airlines.

Newbiepilot wrote:

Air Canada

In the context of Air Canada’s strategy to take some traffic out of the USA and connect via its international hubs, an aircraft of the NMA size could work for the Canadian carrier, says Ravinescu.
“That size of aircraft could fill in well with some of the cities that have the aspirations to connect international flights without connecting to a hub.”


https://leehamnews.com/2018/04/16/air-c ... d-for-nma/

Delta

Delta Air Lines and Boeing have discussed the possibility of the carrier launching the proposed New Mid-market Airplane (NMA), as Delta seeks a replacement for more than 100 ageing mid-market aircraft.

"We've had discussions with Boeing about being a potential launch customer," says Ed Bastian, chief executive of Delta, at the National Press Club in Washington DC today.



https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... an-449780/

United

United Airlines is considering the Airbus A330-800neo and Boeing New Mid-market Airplane (NMA) among options to replace its fleet of aging Boeing 757s and 767s.

The Chicago-based carrier is looking at replacements for its 77 757-200 and -300s, and 51 767-300ERs in the near term, a presentation by senior vice-president of finance, procurement and treasurer Gerry Laderman on 27 February shows.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-446322/

American

The carrier’s senior vice-president of integrated operations David Seymour says American’s 787 delivery timeline keeps an NMA order on the table, though he stresses American knows little about the NMA’s ultimate production timetable or final specification.

Still, Seymour says the NMA could perform well in the carrier’s network and could replace the same aircraft types as the 787.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... er-447664/

Copa

Copa Airlines is considering Boeing's planned New Mid-market Airplane (NMA), which it says could potentially provide additional capacity on its longest routes, chief executive Pedro Heilbron tells FlightGlobal.

The Panamanian carrier's interest in the NMA is significant, given that it has steadfastly stuck to a narrowbody fleet all this while. However, Heilbron says a more cost-efficient widebody could convince Copa to change its mind.

"The existing widebodies make no sense," he tells FlightGlobal ahead of the US Chamber of Commerce aviation summit in Washington DC.

"But the NMA might make sense for Copa, if it gives us more capacity and range in what we hope will be a much less expensive and easier to operate aircraft compared to the 787 or A330."


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... eo-446363/

Qantas

“Whether you’re running out of slots or whether you’re just looking to optimise capacity for the peak levels of demand... an airplane that has the flexibility to carry 20 to 30 per cent more people at the right time is going to be compelling," Mr Hulst said on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association's AMG in Sydney last week.

"Also, with the range capability to fly as far as somewhere like Japan, into and beyond places like Singapore, and secondary markets in South East Asia, it becomes a really compelling opportunity."


https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 4zkto.html

Norwegian

Norwegian is "very interested" in Boeing's proposed New Midsize Airplane design, says chief executive Bjorn Kjos.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... eo-438904/

Thomas Cook

Thomas Cook is 'definitely interested' in Boeing's potential 797 jet

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... debus.html

Air Astana

“It was a glimmer of an idea in Singapore. We now understand it’s more than just a glimmer of an idea,” Mr Foster says. “It is being very seriously debated with dates, times and production facilities now being talked about and thought about internally at Boeing. We love it. It would be brilliant for us.”

https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... ion-174725

I’m certain there are plenty more articles in non English publications.
]


We will see whose fantasy comes true. Reality will probably be in the middle.


Airlines moved on. Delta, American, Qantas, Norwegian, Air Astana put their money where their mouth is, while still being "interested" in a NMA.
https://www.aerotime.aero/parisaishow/22762-american-qantas-deals-lift-airbus-a321xlr-to-191-orders-already
United, Air Canada are left few options at this stage. I have also shown interest in the 2019 Audi RS6 Avant, but..


Delta has not ordered the XLR. They have 100 options for neo that could easily transition to the XLR though and still would have demand for 70-90 NMAs.
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 6462
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Jul 03, 2019 4:33 pm

keesje wrote:
Airlines moved on. Delta, American, Qantas, Norwegian, Air Astana put their money where their mouth is, while still being "interested" in a NMA.
https://www.aerotime.aero/parisaishow/22762-american-qantas-deals-lift-airbus-a321xlr-to-191-orders-already
United, Air Canada are left few options at this stage. I have also shown interest in the 2019 Audi RS6 Avant, but..


Delta hasn't yet done anything, and American quite conspicuously ordered fewer XLRs than the number of middle-of-market frames they need. The XLR and NMA as expected are complementary products, not direct competitors (although I'll grant that the XLR shrinks NMA's market space a bit).
 
User avatar
keesje
Topic Author
Posts: 13017
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Jul 03, 2019 8:03 pm

AA has 340 A321s in service / on order. I wonder where they are going to use the 50 XLR's.

If Boeing waits until they have confirmation UA, DL ordered/ converted XLR's and SW passes on the MAX-7, they have waited too long, again.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Newbiepilot
Posts: 3638
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Jul 14, 2019 2:54 pm

keesje wrote:
AA has 340 A321s in service / on order. I wonder where they are going to use the 50 XLR's.

If Boeing waits until they have confirmation UA, DL ordered/ converted XLR's and SW passes on the MAX-7, they have waited too long, again.


I would expect the A321xlrs to show up on Hawaii routes. I think American is eager to replace the 757s from PHX. Airlines like Copa, American, Aerolineas Argentinas, and GOL have always been pushing narrow body range on routes to South America. I'd expect AA to connect the dots just like others did. Although not the most glamours, Brazil is now more in range.

I don't think Phoenix to Kona, Miami to Belo Horizonte or JFK to Lima are all that influential on changing product strategy plans.
 
ewt340
Posts: 730
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Jul 14, 2019 5:13 pm

To think about this. The best seller is -800 from the B737 series and the -200 from B757 series.

Seems like it's better for Boeing to capture the lower end of the MoM with new narrow-body that have the size of 189 pax and 250 pax (with standard version and LR version) in a single narrow-body aircraft rather than splitting them into NSA and NMA. Just one clean sheet would be beneficial for them.

And then created regional version for B787-8 with derated engines and such to capture the higher end of the MoM demand.

Then let embraer to take care of the B737-600/-700.
 
SEU
Posts: 146
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:21 pm

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Jul 14, 2019 5:41 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
oh and stumbled across this on my travels:

https://leehamnews.com/2010/12/10/737ng ... hess-game/

Interesting to see how the opinion aged.


It funny how they compared a 158 seat NEO to a 170 seat -800.

So the NEO you can fill up with 158 seats and still have better CASM vs a NG with 170 seats.
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Posts: 141
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Jul 14, 2019 6:13 pm

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 37-455844/
Airbus holds about 2,160 A321neo backorders, while Boeing holds just 450 orders for its competing 737 Max 10s, according to Flight Fleets Analyzer.

I wonder how they came up with that 450 orders for the MAX-10? I count 579. While some of these are in jeopardy, I am not aware of any canceled orders. Of course, Boeing insists that a MAX order is a MAX order, and the airline is free to change precise numbers of variants.

5 SkyUp Airlines 13. Mar. 2018
15 CALC China 14. Jun. 2017
10 Donghai Airlines 27. Sep. 2016
10 Malaysia Airlines 1. Jul. 2016
80 VietJet Air 22. May. 2016
15 AerCap 12. Jun. 2015
10 BOC Aviation 13. Aug. 2014
9 Okay Airways 27. May. 2014
10 China Development Bank 14. Mar. 2014
50 Flydubai 31. Dec. 2013
20 SpiceJet 23. Oct. 2013
12 WestJet 26. Sep. 2013
18 TUI Group 9. Jul. 2013
15 Copa Airlines 30. May. 2013
20 Aviation Capital Group 20. Dec. 2012
30 Gol Transportes Aéreos 1. Oct. 2012
20 GECAS 28. Sep. 2012
20 Avolon 18. Sep. 2012
100 United Airlines 12. Jul. 2012
10 Virgin Australia 6. Jul. 2012
100 Lion Air 22. Feb. 2012
579 Total Max 10

Of course, the fact that the A321neo is outselling its competition is not ground-breaking news. The A321ceo has been outselling stretched B737s since they were first delivered in the year 2001. It was a business decision, as the B757 always outsold the A321, but presumably not at a very good profit.

B739ER : Year : A321ceo (deliveries)
34 : 2018 : 99
37 : 2017 : 183
52 : 2016 : 222
73 : 2015 : 184
70 : 2014 : 150
67 : 2013 : 102
44 : 2012 : 83
24 : 2011 : 66
15 : 2010 : 51
28 : 2009 : 87
30 : 2008 : 66
9 : 2007 : 51
B739 : 2006 : 30
6 : 2005 : 17
6 : 2004 : 35
11 : 2003 : 33
8 : 2002 : 35
21 : 2001 : 49
 
tealnz
Posts: 540
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:47 am

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:21 pm

The most obvious answer to the NMA/NSA dilemma is the simplest:
- consistent with all the info coming from carriers and other informed sources, Boeing launch a 7-abreast lightweight 767 replacement for entry into service around 2025
- NMA is being explicitly designed to prove systems and production technologies for a future 737 replacement/NSA that can be produced at rates and costs comparable to the 737
- they launch an NSA programme at the point 737 backlog starts to fade/NMA production is in full swing.
 
AleksW
Posts: 66
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:18 pm

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:34 pm

I think Boeing simply needs to start a clean sheet A321 / 757 type of aircraft, covering everything from the capacity of the biggest Embraer to the theoretical A322 (stretched A321 with something like 250 seats in the single class). It's time to move forward from the 737.
With new engines and composite body, 5000 miles will be no problem.
 
ewt340
Posts: 730
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:42 am

SEU wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
oh and stumbled across this on my travels:

https://leehamnews.com/2010/12/10/737ng ... hess-game/

Interesting to see how the opinion aged.


It funny how they compared a 158 seat NEO to a 170 seat -800.

So the NEO you can fill up with 158 seats and still have better CASM vs a NG with 170 seats.


LOL, we know majority of airlines put more than 158 seats in their A320/neo.

But yeah, A320 are around 2 meter shorter than B737-800 and it had more modern technology since they are late to the market. I guess little pieces of advancement does add up.
 
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keesje
Topic Author
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:08 pm

PacoMartin wrote:

I wonder how they came up with that 450 orders for the MAX-10? I count 579. While some of these are in jeopardy, I am not aware of any canceled orders. Of course, Boeing insists that a MAX order is a MAX order, and the airline is free to change precise numbers of variants.


People have been combining 737-9 and -10 orders. Because many (most?) 737-10 orders are conversions from -9's. But -9 have also been converted in -8's, so it's still unclear. I think Boeing decided to make it unclear.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
keesje
Topic Author
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Jul 25, 2019 10:47 am

Since starting this thread early this year, some time before the Ethiopian crash & grounding, the 737 situation has detoriated.
Even at that stage it was clear the 737-7 and 737-9/10 are in a competitively unfavourable situation.

There is renewed focus on 737 aircraft certification. On the other hand the industry wants a competitive healthy situation in the largest aviation segment, which is served by narrowbody aircraft. The airlines want options. Ref. the IAG LOI. A balance that seems disturbed now.

:arrow: Boeing has to consider if replacing the 737 from 2030 might a be too late. However there still is a significant backlog.

Image

What nobody likes but understands is coming: the 737 backlog taking hits. Airlines will be carefull, they want a healthy competitive situation, but investing in a new 737MAX fleet for the next 25 years doesn't look as smart as it did a few years ago. So w'll probably see deferrals, extended leases, extended service lives, other types entering fleets.

I think that, rather than denying this development, sticking to "Max will do fine", Boeing should consider a 2 track approach.

:arrow: Continue the effort to bring back MAX into service, no way back, balance production rates and invest in softening brand damage.
:arrow: Offer airlines a new narrowbody from 2027 they can convert MAX orders into, if they want to amend 737MAX orders.

This should be an aircraft performing ~10% better than the NEO's, optimized for 150-220 seat configurations with AKH's. It can be developed to become more capable (payload-range) later on. A flexible cabin, choice of at least 2 engine types, lean, quiet and comfortable. Latest wing and engine technology and a modular assembly strategy so chunks can be easily build / moved everywhere.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:39 am

keesje wrote:
This should be an aircraft performing ~10% better than the NEO's, optimized for 150-220 seat configurations with AKH's. It can be developed to become more capable (payload-range) later on. A flexible cabin, choice of at least 2 engine types, lean, quiet and comfortable. Latest wing and engine technology and a modular assembly strategy so chunks can be easily build / moved everywhere.

The instant you announce your 2027 NSA you take what might in the end be a few MAX cancellations and a regrettable but manageable amount of customer disappointment into a full scale financial murder/suicide where Boeing shoots its customers first then turns the gun on itself.

Your ~10% advantage lasts for at best a year or two till Airbus mounts the same engines on whatever improved wing it cares to mate to the A320 with far lower costs.

The only scenario that makes sense is for there to be a generational improvement in technology and both A and B are saying that won't happen till after 2030.

Yet if Boeing kills its customer base by zeroing out their MAX investments in 2019 there won't be any Boeing customers left to buy NSA so it'd all be for naught anyway.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:53 am

Funny how Boeing is able to work wonders if it fits the narrative of certain posters and unable to make a plane fly straight in other context.

10% against a 2028 A320NEO is not a small challenge
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:58 am

Over 90% of narrowbody flights are under 1000nm.

Bringing out a new narrowbody with 4000+nm range will simply result in excess weight and no efficiency gains on the flights under 1000nm.

I am under the impression Boeing will optimise the NSA for shorter routes than the current 737. Look at the truss wing technology with the lower wing sweep and reduced cruising speed. This will allow for greater efficiency gains. The longer flights will be handed over to the 797.

In 20 years time I believe Boeing will only have three aircraft families.
Small, short range = NSA
Medium, medium range = 797NEO
Large, long range = 787NEO

I also think future families will have extremely high commonality within the family. With a simple stretch or shrink of the fuselage lengths to give better CASM or better range like the 787-9 and 787-10 combo.

In terms of the NSA specifications I expect something much different. A launch in 2030. A high mounted truss wing with folding tips to fit in code C gates. The engines fans will be massive in diameter which is why it will use a high mounted wing. The motor driving the fan will be electric allowing the big fans to run at optimal speed. A single gas turbine in the tail will provide enough electeicity to maintain cruise. A battery bank will provide extra power for the climb and allow the aircraft to operate without curfews and into inner city airports.

Such an untraditional aircraft will probably see the 737 production to continue at a lower rate and eventually end production in 2040.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Jul 25, 2019 12:21 pm

Revelation, it might be time for Boeing management to reset strategy:

- not all customers love us so much
- the MAX contracts have termination conditions mostly matched by us at this stage
- the airlines never stumbled over each other to get 737-7 /-9/-10s
- Airbus NB's are almost sold out for 2027 anyway, even if they go 70/month
- We have engineering sitting iddle after the 777x and E2 that w'll loose doing nothing.
- If we take a little more time here, w'll probably loose United, Southwest, KLM, QF and others to Airbus
- The NMA is increasingly in a niche, better save our bread & butter segment.
- Stock holders became less adventurous.
- Doing nothing won't stop anyone from moving on

The 10% "better" can be in total operating costs, using optimized systems, smart MRO concepts an 2023 wing instead of 20-30 yr old technology.
Maybe some hybrid systems and morfing wings facilitating tbd ultra BPR engines of the coming 30 years.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Jul 25, 2019 2:52 pm

If they really need it by 2027 and assuming NMA is a tight light 7W - it may be a lot faster/cheaper to base NSA on the NMA Cockpit/barrel vs starting clean sheet again. With projected NMA entry of 2025 you would have to think a lot of that work is already done (Cockpit and barrel design).

Than do NMA later as an ER version of NSA with bigger wing/gear/engines/tail.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Jul 25, 2019 3:28 pm

morrisond wrote:
If they really need it by 2027 and assuming NMA is a tight light 7W - it may be a lot faster/cheaper to base NSA on the NMA Cockpit/barrel vs starting clean sheet again. With projected NMA entry of 2025 you would have to think a lot of that work is already done (Cockpit and barrel design).

Than do NMA later as an ER version of NSA with bigger wing/gear/engines/tail.


But a "10% better than the NEO" would be out of the window. It would probably be 10-20% more expensive to buy & operate. Not what the market asks for.

:arrow: To gain traction, as an industry benchmark, a 737 replacement should be 10% more efficient than a A321NEO, out of the blocks.

Image

That would ruffle some feathers in Toulouse. Contrary to a twin aisle, composite, oval 200 seater from 2025 at NB costs.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Jul 25, 2019 3:48 pm

keesje wrote:
morrisond wrote:
If they really need it by 2027 and assuming NMA is a tight light 7W - it may be a lot faster/cheaper to base NSA on the NMA Cockpit/barrel vs starting clean sheet again. With projected NMA entry of 2025 you would have to think a lot of that work is already done (Cockpit and barrel design).

Than do NMA later as an ER version of NSA with bigger wing/gear/engines/tail.


But a "10% better than the NEO" would be out of the window. It would probably be 10-20% more expensive to buy & operate. Not what the market asks for.


If you specifically design the wing/gear/tail/engines for 3,000NM Max - maybe not. The A320/A321 is sized for a lot more range than that

Plus you would have the supposed benefit of the new Manufacturing technology Boeing is developing.

A 7W would be shorter than an equivalent 6W with about the same Fuselage Height and the sides just bulged out 20" on each sides. Hold your hands 20" apart - it's not a lot.

The fuselage (for equivalent seating capacity) wouldn't necessarily be heavier (as it's shorter and probably built out of carbon) - you could do a really light 3D printed interior - the wing/gear/engines/tail could be lighter assuming you maximize all for 3,000NM range max (as you would have NMA coming later with bigger wing for longer ranges).

Aero would be maximized with a state of the art wing. If they used Folding tips (would have to look at weight penalty) - they could do a super slim 42-43M wing that folds down to 36M to get into existing gates. Although for the stated range 36M might be enough to keep weight as low as possible.

It's not as clear cut as you are implying. As your rightly keep telling us - most of the NSA routes are under 1,000NM - a little more fuselage drag really isn't a big deal - weight rules.
 
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ODwyerPW
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Jul 25, 2019 3:50 pm

Revelation wrote:
And the risk is the same, spend $billions developing NSA with current gen engines, materials and manufacturing technology, only to watch competitors use next gen tech a few years later.


This is always a risks. Which is why you always plan on continuous improvement of your product. Even new generation of cars will launch with previous gen engines... and then do a mid-gen upgrade to a new power train. Very common practice.

That said. Boeing has to monetize that huge MAX backlog before announcing it's replacement. It's too much money to walk away from.
learning never stops.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Jul 25, 2019 4:23 pm

keesje wrote:
Revelation, it might be time for Boeing management to reset strategy:

- not all customers love us so much

We're talking money, not love.

- the MAX contracts have termination conditions mostly matched by us at this stage

There aren't any actual cancellations of significance now, but once you say we're doing a NSA there surely will be.

- the airlines never stumbled over each other to get 737-7 /-9/-10s

Then why do you keep lusting after seeing UA/WN/KLM/QF/etc as Airbus customers?

Clearly they represent a huge slice of the market Airbus would love to have and Boeing needs to keep.

- Airbus NB's are almost sold out for 2027 anyway, even if they go 70/month

Right, so a 2027 NSA doesn't help them with their 2019ish fleet plans, so the customers tread water for eight years or more?

- We have engineering sitting iddle after the 777x and E2 that w'll loose doing nothing.

Right, except for the thousand engineers already working on NSA, and more to be added as the program ramps up.

- If we take a little more time here, w'll probably loose United, Southwest, KLM, QF and others to Airbus

You surely will if you shiv them by driving the investment they've already made in 737 to zero.

- The NMA is increasingly in a niche, better save our bread & butter segment.

How do you save your bread and butter segment by having no product to sell till 2027 ???

We are already seeing what a few months without 737 is doing to the bottom line.

You're really suggesting seeing what happens if Boeing has no revenue from 737 and needs to fund NSA at the same time?

The 10% "better" can be in total operating costs, using optimized systems, smart MRO concepts an 2023 wing instead of 20-30 yr old technology.
Maybe some hybrid systems and morfing wings facilitating tbd ultra BPR engines of the coming 30 years.

Funny how you think NMA will be heavy/expensive/etc yet think NSA starting out from a similar tech base will end up 10% better than A32x.

I can see NMA ending up 10% better than A321XLR overall once its larger capacity is factored in, thus capturing the high end of the MoM market.

Then Boeing will use lessons learned from NMA and add a big tech push to capture the NSA market in the 2030 time frame.

We could very well see NMA do to A321XLR what 787 is doing to A330, and watch Airbus reset their strategy.

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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Jul 25, 2019 6:01 pm

No, 10% better than the A321 is unlikely. The A321NEO is simply a very efficient plane, with engines fitting it nearly perfectly and with it just using all reserves left in the design, which makes it very efficient. A widebody can not beat this by 10%, especially not with engines only 1 generation newer. What a widebody can do is coming out slightly ahead in the long version and significantly more capable in the short version.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Jul 25, 2019 6:17 pm

seahawk wrote:
No, 10% better than the A321 is unlikely. The A321NEO is simply a very efficient plane, with engines fitting it nearly perfectly and with it just using all reserves left in the design, which makes it very efficient. A widebody can not beat this by 10%, especially not with engines only 1 generation newer. What a widebody can do is coming out slightly ahead in the long version and significantly more capable in the short version.


It's not as if the A321neo is some "magnum opus" for aircraft design. It's a 30 year old design with 30 year old technology and wings that are not even close to being optimal. The only thing being up to date about it are the engines.
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