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2175301
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Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:46 pm

Bradin wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Bradin wrote:

While I agree Boeing does need to respond, they also need to respond properly. Making knee-jerk decisions is one of the most irresponsible decisions any business leader can make.

Airbus has had its fair share of knee-jerk decisions and it's caused a lot of friction between entities in the World Trade Organization as well as embarrassment for them.


Apart from A380. Their knee-jerk reaction worked though. Well at least at cornering the lower end market and stopping Boeing momentum with B777X. If the rumor is true, and Airbus could work on their clean sheet replacement, then situation would get reversed.

It would be like when Boeing came up with B787 and Airbus scattered around with A330neo and A350.


I'm not so certain their knee-jerk reactions did work. If anything, I think quite the opposite.

I think the A380, the original A350, and the A330 Neo are examples of knee jerk reactions that have gone horribly wrong. When we have an airline CEO saying the cost of flying two 787s is the same as flying one A380, it really put Airbus in a bad spot. The response by Airbus playing the A380, A350, A350XWB, and A330neo to me is an indicator that they were caught off guard and they're throwing everything on the wall to see what sticks. Thus far the A350XWB seems to be the only true success


I would add the A400 to Brandin's list of knee-jerk reaction projects by Airbus (even if not a commercial passenger aircraft). While I believe that the A350 is a great aircraft and will be an eventual success (Airbus is predicting production cost breakeven in 2019); they sure did it the hard way with their mislaunch and relaunch.

That is clearly a lesson that Boeing will pay attention to, and why they are in no hurry to launch a 737 replacement.

Other than Keesje; is there anyone on this thread who seriously believes that Boeing needs to be beyond concept stage on a future 737 replacement. I do know that Boeing is in the concept stage - and believe that much of the process for the NMA (potential 797) is aimed at the future NSA (737 replacement).

Have a great day,
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:16 pm

Any 737 replacement is going to have to offer a significant improvement over the A320 in order to justify the expense of developing it. The NMA will give Boeing an edge in the gap between the MAX8 and the 788; and the MAX8 can hold its own with the A320. So spending billions just to maintain parity is foolish. Boeing needs some airframe improvement that the A320 cannot match to justify the expense. It also needs to be cheaper to manufacture than the present 737 as well. And I don’t think Boeing has any breakthrough yet that will justify it.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Bradin
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:39 am

2175301 wrote:
Bradin wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

Apart from A380. Their knee-jerk reaction worked though. Well at least at cornering the lower end market and stopping Boeing momentum with B777X. If the rumor is true, and Airbus could work on their clean sheet replacement, then situation would get reversed.

It would be like when Boeing came up with B787 and Airbus scattered around with A330neo and A350.


I'm not so certain their knee-jerk reactions did work. If anything, I think quite the opposite.

I think the A380, the original A350, and the A330 Neo are examples of knee jerk reactions that have gone horribly wrong. When we have an airline CEO saying the cost of flying two 787s is the same as flying one A380, it really put Airbus in a bad spot. The response by Airbus playing the A380, A350, A350XWB, and A330neo to me is an indicator that they were caught off guard and they're throwing everything on the wall to see what sticks. Thus far the A350XWB seems to be the only true success


I would add the A400 to Brandin's list of knee-jerk reaction projects by Airbus (even if not a commercial passenger aircraft). While I believe that the A350 is a great aircraft and will be an eventual success (Airbus is predicting production cost breakeven in 2019); they sure did it the hard way with their mislaunch and relaunch.

That is clearly a lesson that Boeing will pay attention to, and why they are in no hurry to launch a 737 replacement.

Other than Keesje; is there anyone on this thread who seriously believes that Boeing needs to be beyond concept stage on a future 737 replacement. I do know that Boeing is in the concept stage - and believe that much of the process for the NMA (potential 797) is aimed at the future NSA (737 replacement).

Have a great day,


I concur. The A350XWB is hitting many of the right notes and airlines are buying them hand over fist. It excites me to think what Boeing could do if it chooses to enhance or clean sheets the 777 successor.

Competition is a great thing.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:59 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
smartplane wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
The MAX8 is successfully holding its own with the A320neo. The MAX9 and MAX10 are being swamped by the A321neo. Without going into the weeds about whether or not the MAX8 has outsold the A320neo

737 replacement is more urgent than realised. MAX8 sales are being made, but true margins (after retrospective credits), have been crucified, partly underwritten by suppliers, who have taken margin cuts.


Do you have any data to back up your assertion? What is the definition of true margins since I can’t find a definition on investopedia?

Margins are expanding
Boeing raked in about $12 billion in operating earnings in 2018, and about two-thirds of that came from its Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) unit. CEO Denis Muilenburg's guidance for 2019 forecasts a 14% to 15% operating margin at BCA, compared to 13% in 2018 and 9.4% in 2017. Hitting that would target would achieve a long-held aim of the company.


https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/02/ ... ve-re.aspx

Retrospective credits don't erode published margins. There is list, discounts AND retrospective credits. Margins can rise, giving the illusion of smaller discounts, more than offset by increasing retrospective credits, which straddle multiple financial years, skewed towards the back-end of transactions.

Retrospective credits can be applied in numerous ways, including to Boeing Capital exposures.

Margins for small volume acquisitions have widened, while only marginally for large orders.

A new feature of mega orders, are customers negotiating retrospective credits across different model families and legal entities. For example, the EK A330/A350 acquisition.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Feb 23, 2019 2:11 am

smartplane wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
smartplane wrote:
737 replacement is more urgent than realised. MAX8 sales are being made, but true margins (after retrospective credits), have been crucified, partly underwritten by suppliers, who have taken margin cuts.


Do you have any data to back up your assertion? What is the definition of true margins since I can’t find a definition on investopedia?

Margins are expanding
Boeing raked in about $12 billion in operating earnings in 2018, and about two-thirds of that came from its Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) unit. CEO Denis Muilenburg's guidance for 2019 forecasts a 14% to 15% operating margin at BCA, compared to 13% in 2018 and 9.4% in 2017. Hitting that would target would achieve a long-held aim of the company.


https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/02/ ... ve-re.aspx

Retrospective credits don't erode published margins. There is list, discounts AND retrospective credits. Margins can rise, giving the illusion of smaller discounts, more than offset by increasing retrospective credits, which straddle multiple financial years, skewed towards the back-end of transactions.

Retrospective credits can be applied in numerous ways, including to Boeing Capital exposures.

Margins for small volume acquisitions have widened, while only marginally for large orders.

A new feature of mega orders, are customers negotiating retrospective credits across different model families and legal entities. For example, the EK A330/A350 acquisition.


Are you implying that because of retrospective credits that the operating margin is more of an illusion? If we are going to believe you that a 737 replacement is more urgent than realized, can you provide some evidence? Boeing stock price estimates imply that Boeing is very healthy financially and the 737 production line is a significant part of that
Last edited by Newbiepilot on Sat Feb 23, 2019 2:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Feb 23, 2019 2:12 am

SEPilot wrote:
Any 737 replacement is going to have to offer a significant improvement over the A320 in order to justify the expense of developing it. The NMA will give Boeing an edge in the gap between the MAX8 and the 788; and the MAX8 can hold its own with the A320. So spending billions just to maintain parity is foolish. Boeing needs some airframe improvement that the A320 cannot match to justify the expense. It also needs to be cheaper to manufacture than the present 737 as well. And I don’t think Boeing has any breakthrough yet that will justify it.

Agree. This is the bar Boeing and Airbus both need to break through. And make money. And achieve comparable monthly volumes. And....

Without a significant engine technology step, which will only be exclusive for a short time (if at all), a new model, for the air frame OEM's creates risk with insufficient reward. Ideally, they both need to promise not to rock the boat (or wings), and maintain the status quo for another 5 years, reaping current model rewards.

But that assumes profit per unit (after deducting discounts and retrospective discounts) are comparable. Boeing is making suppliers weep, to offset capability deficiencies which are more pronounced with larger models. In contrast, Airbus is under-performing in economies of scale, but is partly insulated by the A321 family.

It's here Boeing will focus, but is it valuable enough to justify a USD10bn plus investment using existing technology engines?
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Feb 23, 2019 2:28 am

If they Base NSA on NMA(same 7W Fuselage, Nose, systems - different wingbox/wing/gear/tai)l it's totally doable by 2027/2028 when new technology engines should be available - it shouldn't be that hard to extend the backlog until then.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:06 am

morrisond wrote:
If they Base NSA on NMA(same 7W Fuselage, Nose, systems - different wingbox/wing/gear/tai)l it's totally doable by 2027/2028 when new technology engines should be available - it shouldn't be that hard to extend the backlog until then.


If there's a 7Y fuselage then there is no hope of NSA replacing the 737-8, which remains a core profit-maker for the time being.

IMO NSA will need to be narrow 6Y just like the 737, because it will need to compete with the A220-300 and a possible A220-500 on the low end, and be solidly cheaper to run than any potential A321 re-wing on the high end. There may be a variant that overlaps with the smallest NSA in capacity, but it will have much less range and MTOW. Taller gear should take care of the fan size and field performance problems of the 737.
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:24 am

Bradin wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Bradin wrote:

I might be wrong but as I understood it, the costs were not as significant as we think it was. There are a lot of commonalities between the 747-8i ad 747-8f. If someone would like to correct me, please do because I am by no means an expert in airplane design and engineering.


Yeah of course, the one I'm talking about is the money they need to spent when they upgrade B747-400 to B747-8i. It's the first lengthened B747 they ever done. It's also being upgraded with partial fly-by-wire technology unlike B747-400. Also the delay for the -8i program cost around $1billion. They also do overhaul design to the wings. With some of the trailing edge of the wings made using composite materials which is pretty new for them. So the cost for B747-8i is pretty high.

Now, back to B737's replacement. What Boeing would need to look into is obviously the bottom line and try to prevent spending useless money that would ended up creating lackluster result. Instead of simple re-design and upgrade. They need something more radical. The void of B757-200 really hurt their market shares in narrow-body sector. The time is ticking for them to go to Airlines and created some buzz to make sure Airlines know some of the directions Boeing will go through. Otherwise, many airlines gonna plays it safe with Airbus.

Beside, the big rumor about the new-clean sheet for A32Xneo is looming now. With possibility of A350neo. And A330neo on autopilot. Airbus have some free time with their new move.
Boeing on the other hand, have B737MAX, B747-8, B787, and B777X on the table. They need to cut the fat out like Airbus did and focus on the next move. And it seems like B797 might not be the best solutions. B737's replacement might be their safe bet for now.



I think people overestimate the costs and complexities associated with the Boeing 747-8. Granted it was a not just a simple enlargement of 19 feet and there was a lot of new technologies and enhancements added since the Boeing 747-400, 1 billion dollars is nothing considering the list price of both iterations of Boeing 747-8 is just shy of half a billion dollars each. ($418.4 million for the 747-8i and $419.2 million for the 747-8f) - See: http://www.boeing.com/company/about-bca/#/prices. Even at 2.1 Billion dollars, I'm fairly certain Boeing more than broke even to pay costs and their R&D based on their models.

The lack of a 757 series replacement/void was created by the airline industry. Boeing tried to find additional airlines and they simply chose not to purchase them. Reflecting on it now, I think Boeing was spot on the size. They just had timings wrong. Now that there is a huge demand for them, Boeing and Airbus are trying to fill that void. The void in this space was not created by Boeing because they had the 757. No one wanted to buy it.

As to playing it safe with Airbus, I don't see any evidence of airlines playing it safe. To date:

A320neo sales: 6,526
737max sales: 5,011


I'm going to let rumors be that: rumors. Until it is formally offered and announced, it's purely speculation.


ewt340 wrote:
Bradin wrote:

While I agree Boeing does need to respond, they also need to respond properly. Making knee-jerk decisions is one of the most irresponsible decisions any business leader can make.

Airbus has had its fair share of knee-jerk decisions and it's caused a lot of friction between entities in the World Trade Organization as well as embarrassment for them.


Apart from A380. Their knee-jerk reaction worked though. Well at least at cornering the lower end market and stopping Boeing momentum with B777X. If the rumor is true, and Airbus could work on their clean sheet replacement, then situation would get reversed.

It would be like when Boeing came up with B787 and Airbus scattered around with A330neo and A350.


I'm not so certain their knee-jerk reactions did work. If anything, I think quite the opposite.

I think the A380, the original A350, and the A330 Neo are examples of knee jerk reactions that have gone horribly wrong. When we have an airline CEO saying the cost of flying two 787s is the same as flying one A380, it really put Airbus in a bad spot. The response by Airbus playing the A380, A350, A350XWB, and A330neo to me is an indicator that they were caught off guard and they're throwing everything on the wall to see what sticks. Thus far the A350XWB seems to be the only true success


I think you might misread my comment, the extra $1 billion dollar was the cost that Boeing have to scoop up because the project got pushback, not the total amount of money they spent on B747-8.
Those list price you gave us, are only list price, it's not profits, you haven't count on production cost, taxes, big discount they gave to Airlines and yearly expenditure to keep the production alive. And until today, the production is still open for B747-8. Many people actually underestimated the cost Boeing use for many of their program.

Their knee jerk reaction also included slashing off A380 productions which is a good move to save money, their project on cheap A330neo able to cut off B787 momentum, especially A330-900neo with their 270 orders, not much but there's some potential to reach at least 300-400 orders. This is a really big dent on B787-9 orders. Because these 2 plane compete with each other directly, especially since the MTOW increase on A330-900neo.

Their knee jerk reaction doesn't gain much orders, but it cutting cost and take big momentum from Boeing.
Last edited by ewt340 on Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:46 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
bigjku
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:20 pm

I wonder if the OP gets that there is both a long game and a short game here. So long as Boeing is maintaining touch in the NB market which they clearly are to this point you don’t throw the long game in favor of a short term bump.

Is there any doubt that even if Boeing did launch a new narrowbody plane it wouldn’t be roundly criticized and face impending doom when Airbus gets to respond later with newer technology according to the same people calling for Boeing to do just that?

There is abject refusal to accept two things that I see as fundamental issues with going straight to a narrowbody replacement.

1. Scaling it will be an insanely difficult challenge and is best supported if the program is somewhat of a derivative of something already being done.

2. NMA let’s Boeing basically test run exactly the way it wants to build NSA while also closing Airbus out of almost every market but the A320 family and the A359 (assuming they start selling again).

As I have said before, just straight taking on the A320neo with a new plane right in the heart of its segment is difficult. Cut out the need to fight it on longer range segments however and it’s ripe for the taking on the core of the routes it flys. The key to the market is to dominate the 4 hour or less segments. Everything else is a distraction.

Get your avionics, subsystems and construction methods spun up on NMA and build a much lighter and less range oriented NSA. Play the long term game properly just as the widebody market played out.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:58 pm

seabosdca wrote:
morrisond wrote:
If they Base NSA on NMA(same 7W Fuselage, Nose, systems - different wingbox/wing/gear/tai)l it's totally doable by 2027/2028 when new technology engines should be available - it shouldn't be that hard to extend the backlog until then.


If there's a 7Y fuselage then there is no hope of NSA replacing the 737-8, which remains a core profit-maker for the time being.

IMO NSA will need to be narrow 6Y just like the 737, because it will need to compete with the A220-300 and a possible A220-500 on the low end, and be solidly cheaper to run than any potential A321 re-wing on the high end. There may be a variant that overlaps with the smallest NSA in capacity, but it will have much less range and MTOW. Taller gear should take care of the fan size and field performance problems of the 737.



That is the interesting calculus (if Airbus does A220-500/700 to take on 738/A320).

However who is to say that Boeing doesn't use it's new acquisition/partner Embraer to compete in that space? Although it seems like it would be hard to stretch the E-series farther - who says they don't do a clean sheet 5W to compete with Airbus?

With Delta being able to get 4W first in the front of an A220 (same as A320/737) it seems like 5W might be the future for Domestic Short range ops up to about 738 size. Isn't it the common belief that the front of the plane is where all the profit is? Dropping the one extra row of Y (and the associated weight) might produce a much more cost efficient Single Aisle solution.

This leaves space for NSA - small to be sized at A320.5 size with 50% more premium seating 2x2x2 and 50% more cargo and NSA Large at A322 size (same as NSA - Small) with ranges up to about 3,500NM and NMA ranges up to about 5,500NM.
 
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:17 pm

Please discuss the topic without the Airbus vs Boeing flamebait. This includes not provoking the other side to get a response.

Additionally it has come to my attention that there is a selected group of users who are discussing moderator actions via pm including accusing us of protecting a particular user. If you have an issue with moderation it would rather helpful if you emailed us at [email protected] to discuss further. Furthermore please check your facts before making such accusations as you will find that most of those posts were deleted as reference posts resulting from an earlier rule violation up thread. The same rules apply to private messages as they do to forum posts and I would encourage those involved to email us to discuss further.
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reidar76
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:07 pm

All talk about Boeing launching an 1:1 replacement for the 737 this summer, is absurd. The 737 will be in production for at least another 15 to 20 years. (!) That doesn't mean that Boeing shouldn't launch a new, clean-sheet narrowbody family now. Here is why...

The 737 family is a very profitable program for Boeing, a program with a huge backlog. But, the 737 is ageing and has been gradually loosing market share to the A320 family over the past 30 years. Market share isn't everything, profit margins are important as well. There is a balance needed between profit and market share. We all know what happened to McDonnell Douglas and their focus on profit margins alone.

One (of many) reason why the 737 backlog is huge, is that Airbus doesn't have the production facilities to deliver more A320 family aircraft, and there are engine shortages limiting production increases.

Airbus is not in the same position as Boeing. They can continue to upgrade the A320 family and possibly to a re-wing as some point. And Airbus has two narrowbody families. The A220 is very modern, is just starting up, and will have a long production run. A stretched family derivate, an A220-500, is definitely coming.

If we go 15 years back in time, Boeing delivered narrowbody aircraft from three different families (717, 737 and 757) at the same time. If we go even further back, to the mid-80`s, Boeing had four narrowbody families in production (707, 727, 737 and 757).

I think it is time for Boeing to launch a new narrowbody family, not as a 737 replacement, but as an increase of their product offerings. The new narrowbody family should hit Airbus exactly where it hurts the most, a direct competitor to the A321 and a competitor to the coming A321 XLR and the possible A322.

As some point the 737 will be retired. Replacing the 737 production will be an industrial challenge of epic proportions. The only way to do this is to have another narrowbody family bridging the gap.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:14 pm

reidar76 wrote:
I think it is time for Boeing to launch a new narrowbody family, not as a 737 replacement, but as an increase of their product offerings. The new narrowbody family should hit Airbus exactly where it hurts the most, a direct competitor to the A321 and a competitor to the coming A321 XLR and the possible A322.



Exactly - In my view that replacement airplane where they learn how to build and develop new production methods is the NMA before moving on to NSA (based on the NMA nose/cross section/systems with different wing box/wing, gear/tail). However I believe the NMA is a lot smaller than a lot of people are assuming.

It's talked about as up to 265/270 seats. I saw a quote from a Boeing executive Executive a few years ago about NMA being A321 plus 30-40 seats which would be about 1 row over a 230-240 Single Class A321.

A 788 which holds about 288 in an domestic 2 class arrangement (Thomson Airways) has about 230m2 of floor area.

I believe NMA is more like 265/270 single class otherwise it would need a floor area of about 210m2 - too close to 788 and if that is the case Boeing might as well just resurrect an optimized 783.

I believe NMA small will be close to 321 size (maybe a little bigger) and NMA large more like A322/323 size with an XL-NMA coming later even bigger.

This intro's around 2025 with NSA essentially just an variant of NMA - but do to the Volumes of the 738/A320/A320.5/A321/739/731 space they will be able to fully optimize it for it's mission (call it less than 3,000nm) with optimized engines, wingbox, wing, gear, and tail - it could be out by 2027-2029.

Heck from an engineering standpoint they may be engineering NSA first and beefing up what they need to for NMA as it's probably easier to beef up than take weight out.

However from an Industrial standpoint it makes way more sense to learn to build NMA first at call it line rates of 10 per month before switching to NSA.

NSA could be sold at a premium to 737 with 737 remaining in production for quite some time until NSA can be ramped to sufficient scale as I would guess NSA won't be built on the same lines as 737 - at least at first.

If NMA and NSA are this common they should be able to be produced on the same lines - just like Boeing is producing 77W/L/F and 777x on the same lines even though they have two completely different wings. At least NSA/NMA wings should be technically common - just probably different sizes.

That means if Boeing uses 747 space for initial NMA production - NSA prototypes could be build on the same line.

Then a green field gets established in South Carolina for full production of NSA, with the existing 737 factory converted over as 737 winds down in the 2030's.

A combined NMA/NSA program could have line rates over 100 per month in the 2030's which is where 2 or 3 facilities are really needed.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:33 pm

If NMA uses tech that existing 737 partners do not use there are a few options, Boeing brings more work in-house, partners expend more resources while still producing 737 parts, new partners are found.
Boeing's business is presently one of the larger production drivers in the USA, option 1 will be fully supported by in-house unions who hate out-sourcing, unfortunately, those same workers who worked for the out-sourced companies would have to be hired by Boeing, a toxic work place, additionally it will kill a lot of investors in those companies as most will go belly up or shrink to a fraction of their current size,

Option 2 requires massive investment not just in equipment and training, but getting additional floor space for facilities, good luck getting that while getting squeezed by Boeing on existing margins.

Option 3 is viable since one can always find new investors, issue is, the human resources will have to come from existing companies which will affect existing 737 production, based on the existing US job market.

In terms of no major upheaval to the US industrial complex, a NMA to proof the new production methods at a slower rate than a full blown NSA replacement should be preferred, unfortrunately, it depends on the faction at Boeing's board that will be driving.
 
CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:30 pm

Sorry for this post, I don't intent to provoke.
After reading this post I realized how bad the CSeries => A220 situation is for Boeing. The 737 is a narrow 6 abreast, with inward folding cargo doors making cargo containers very inefficient. The A320 is a wider 6 abreast with cargo container option. The CSeries has CFRP wings and GTF-engines. It has outward folding cargo doors making it beter suitable for cargo containers. The CSeries /A220 development cost Airbus nothing. Airbus has to invest in it to get it's production economics right, at rate 10-16 initially.
Boeing has to develop a mom (the 797) to get the same experience. If Boeing had teamed up with Bombardier and collaborated with them, the CSeries could have replaced the 737-500/-600/-700 with the CS100 & CS300. The 737-8/-9/-10 could have competed with the A320 series. And Boeing got the CFRP narrowbody wing ramp-up experience. That could have been used in the 2020's for a 737max successor with EIS >2025. (likely CS500&CS700 and a wide 6 abreast for more capacity)
That would have been really painful for Airbus, especially since the C919 and MC-21 are going to enter the market. They are both large 6 abreast (the A320 family marketspace) with GTF-engines and the MC-21 has CFRP wings.
Now Airbus has surrounded the 737 with the A220 and A320, and they get CFRP wing experiance.

Boeing has streamlined narrowbody production into one production cluster. This is more efficient than the distributed production proces with many FAL lines Airbus is using. But it also makes introduction of a upgrade harder, and more painful. Airbus can introduce a upgrade serially on the different FAL's causing less of a production disruption than when Boeing has to change the processes into it's three 737 FAL1s. The requirement to set up a full new production line for the 797/MOM, is also what makes it's development expansive. Possibly the 767 or 747 production floor space can be used for the MOM, but that requires a project termination.

All in all AFAIK Airbus is in a beter longterm situation than Boeing. They have a easier path to upgrade their profit cow the A320 family, than Boeing has on theirs the 737. They are getting experience with a CFRP winged narrow-body with the A220/CSeries. They have an entry from above and below for the MOM/M-segment market. Admitted the A220, A320NEO and A330NEO are in ramp-up/product transition. The A320 has a overstretched backlog and the A220 and A330 (& A380) could use some orders.
Boeing has a healthy 737 & 787 backlog, but they are overproducing on the 787. And the 777X is in transition and requirement of orders and the 747F and 767 are running on freighter and tanker demand.
AFAIK Boeing and Airbus should focus less on their competition and more on their profits and how to best serve the aviation market demand. The MOM/M-segment market require a beter product, as does the regional market below scope clause. Next on the requirement list is more efficient narrow-bodies, and than the large wide-bodies. I think the airplane market will also get more competitive with the entry of Comac/CRAIC. interesting times ahead.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:46 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Sorry for this post, I don't intent to provoke.
After reading this post I realized how bad the CSeries => A220 situation is for Boeing. The 737 is a narrow 6 abreast, with inward folding cargo doors making cargo containers very inefficient. The A320 is a wider 6 abreast with cargo container option. The CSeries has CFRP wings and GTF-engines. It has outward folding cargo doors making it beter suitable for cargo containers. The CSeries /A220 development cost Airbus nothing. Airbus has to invest in it to get it's production economics right, at rate 10-16 initially.
Boeing has to develop a mom (the 797) to get the same experience. If Boeing had teamed up with Bombardier and collaborated with them, the CSeries could have replaced the 737-500/-600/-700 with the CS100 & CS300. The 737-8/-9/-10 could have competed with the A320 series. And Boeing got the CFRP narrowbody wing ramp-up experience. That could have been used in the 2020's for a 737max successor with EIS >2025. (likely CS500&CS700 and a wide 6 abreast for more capacity)
That would have been really painful for Airbus, especially since the C919 and MC-21 are going to enter the market. They are both large 6 abreast (the A320 family marketspace) with GTF-engines and the MC-21 has CFRP wings.
Now Airbus has surrounded the 737 with the A220 and A320, and they get CFRP wing experiance.

Boeing has streamlined narrowbody production into one production cluster. This is more efficient than the distributed production proces with many FAL lines Airbus is using. But it also makes introduction of a upgrade harder, and more painful. Airbus can introduce a upgrade serially on the different FAL's causing less of a production disruption than when Boeing has to change the processes into it's three 737 FAL1s. The requirement to set up a full new production line for the 797/MOM, is also what makes it's development expansive. Possibly the 767 or 747 production floor space can be used for the MOM, but that requires a project termination.

All in all AFAIK Airbus is in a beter longterm situation than Boeing. They have a easier path to upgrade their profit cow the A320 family, than Boeing has on theirs the 737. They are getting experience with a CFRP winged narrow-body with the A220/CSeries. They have an entry from above and below for the MOM/M-segment market. Admitted the A220, A320NEO and A330NEO are in ramp-up/product transition. The A320 has a overstretched backlog and the A220 and A330 (& A380) could use some orders.
Boeing has a healthy 737 & 787 backlog, but they are overproducing on the 787. And the 777X is in transition and requirement of orders and the 747F and 767 are running on freighter and tanker demand.
AFAIK Boeing and Airbus should focus less on their competition and more on their profits and how to best serve the aviation market demand. The MOM/M-segment market require a beter product, as does the regional market below scope clause. Next on the requirement list is more efficient narrow-bodies, and than the large wide-bodies. I think the airplane market will also get more competitive with the entry of Comac/CRAIC. interesting times ahead.



Good points - I would agree Boeing really screwed up by not getting the C-Series. However with Embraer I can see them working on a 5W to compete and see that size eventually taking up the 738/A320 space under 3,000 NM.

A 220-500/700 with a new larger wing will be hard to compete with a a 6W.

I think a lot of it comes down to how many Premium seats you can cram in. Delta has gone 4W in a very comfortable Domestic First in their 220's.

You won't be able to cram more than that into a 6W - you are just carrying around extra structure to support very low margin/possible loss making Y seats.

BTW - Boeing is currently producing a full carbon wing at 14/month in the 787 Series - it shouldn't be that hard to ramp up from there.
 
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 3:46 pm

morrisond wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
I think it is time for Boeing to launch a new narrowbody family, not as a 737 replacement, but as an increase of their product offerings. The new narrowbody family should hit Airbus exactly where it hurts the most, a direct competitor to the A321 and a competitor to the coming A321 XLR and the possible A322.



Exactly - In my view that replacement airplane where they learn how to build and develop new production methods is the NMA before moving on to NSA (based on the NMA nose/cross section/systems with different wing box/wing, gear/tail). However I believe the NMA is a lot smaller than a lot of people are assuming.

It's talked about as up to 265/270 seats. I saw a quote from a Boeing executive Executive a few years ago about NMA being A321 plus 30-40 seats which would be about 1 row over a 230-240 Single Class A321.

A 788 which holds about 288 in an domestic 2 class arrangement (Thomson Airways) has about 230m2 of floor area.

I believe NMA is more like 265/270 single class otherwise it would need a floor area of about 210m2 - too close to 788 and if that is the case Boeing might as well just resurrect an optimized 783.

I believe NMA small will be close to 321 size (maybe a little bigger) and NMA large more like A322/323 size with an XL-NMA coming later even bigger.

This intro's around 2025 with NSA essentially just an variant of NMA - but do to the Volumes of the 738/A320/A320.5/A321/739/731 space they will be able to fully optimize it for it's mission (call it less than 3,000nm) with optimized engines, wingbox, wing, gear, and tail - it could be out by 2027-2029.

Heck from an engineering standpoint they may be engineering NSA first and beefing up what they need to for NMA as it's probably easier to beef up than take weight out.

However from an Industrial standpoint it makes way more sense to learn to build NMA first at call it line rates of 10 per month before switching to NSA.

NSA could be sold at a premium to 737 with 737 remaining in production for quite some time until NSA can be ramped to sufficient scale as I would guess NSA won't be built on the same lines as 737 - at least at first.

If NMA and NSA are this common they should be able to be produced on the same lines - just like Boeing is producing 77W/L/F and 777x on the same lines even though they have two completely different wings. At least NSA/NMA wings should be technically common - just probably different sizes.

That means if Boeing uses 747 space for initial NMA production - NSA prototypes could be build on the same line.

Then a green field gets established in South Carolina for full production of NSA, with the existing 737 factory converted over as 737 winds down in the 2030's.

A combined NMA/NSA program could have line rates over 100 per month in the 2030's which is where 2 or 3 facilities are really needed.


Good considerations. A 737 replacement wouldn't be 1:1. Nobody is suggesting a 737 1:1 replacement launch in 2019. The OP asks if it would be on the table this year. A question harder to dismiss, as we can read on this forum. It would have to allign with the 2025-2045 customer requirements, Embraer jet and a possible NMA later on.

https://07185918574543712684.googlegroups.com/attach/35d4515a510e6/Embraer%20E200-E2%20Boeing%20737-7%20Southwest%20Keesje.jpg?part=0.1&view=1&vt=ANaJVrHFzkdJF9ck4lQSa-JYEU8VIjcQvTHDbdIQHQosEurwi-RGT-VMBoxsEakqCVMBEgZfuHMkMgrxzWDZjSQRtNxDqXzO_yRQX_EeRM706KB4dJ8P5tI

Sidenote: what is it called, if you slightly modify what somebody said, repeat it a few times and attack it?

Some overlap between the E2 and an NSA would be wise, various operators have various requirements and you are in A220 territory. Offering options probably helps marketshare.

Heck from an engineering standpoint they may be engineering NSA first and beefing up what they need to for NMA as it's probably easier to beef up than take weight out.

:checkmark:

I think super efficient 250 seat single class <3000 Nm aircraft will become available from Airbus (A322), Comac (C919 stretch) and UAC (MS21-400) in the next decade. All these will have
- wider cabins/seats,
- modern quiet, spacey cockpits,
- container / pallet / ACT flexibility
- large, quiet 78-80 inch CFM and PW turbofans.

Their OEW's will be around 55t, so I think the benchmark is clear if you wan to sell in this< 260 seat segment anywhere.

Image

A 7 abreast twin aisle, 50k lbs engined wide body could be the answer here, or a lean modern 6 abreast NSA stretch. I estimate the difference between those two options at around 15-20t empty weight. But of course that doesn't tell all. I would know where to invest my dollar though.
Last edited by keesje on Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:12 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 3:55 pm

reidar76 wrote:
All talk about Boeing launching an 1:1 replacement for the 737 this summer, is absurd. The 737 will be in production for at least another 15 to 20 years. (!) That doesn't mean that Boeing shouldn't launch a new, clean-sheet narrowbody family now. Here is why...

The 737 family is a very profitable program for Boeing, a program with a huge backlog. But, the 737 is ageing and has been gradually loosing market share to the A320 family over the past 30 years. Market share isn't everything, profit margins are important as well. There is a balance needed between profit and market share. We all know what happened to McDonnell Douglas and their focus on profit margins alone.

One (of many) reason why the 737 backlog is huge, is that Airbus doesn't have the production facilities to deliver more A320 family aircraft, and there are engine shortages limiting production increases.

Airbus is not in the same position as Boeing. They can continue to upgrade the A320 family and possibly to a re-wing as some point. And Airbus has two narrowbody families. The A220 is very modern, is just starting up, and will have a long production run. A stretched family derivate, an A220-500, is definitely coming.

If we go 15 years back in time, Boeing delivered narrowbody aircraft from three different families (717, 737 and 757) at the same time. If we go even further back, to the mid-80`s, Boeing had four narrowbody families in production (707, 727, 737 and 757).

I think it is time for Boeing to launch a new narrowbody family, not as a 737 replacement, but as an increase of their product offerings. The new narrowbody family should hit Airbus exactly where it hurts the most, a direct competitor to the A321 and a competitor to the coming A321 XLR and the possible A322.

As some point the 737 will be retired. Replacing the 737 production will be an industrial challenge of epic proportions. The only way to do this is to have another narrowbody family bridging the gap.


I agree that the idea of launching a 1:1 737 replacement in summer 2019 is absurd.

However there is a logical fallacy in your post. You are assuming that the 737 can’t be upgraded. However, the 737 has proven to be a very versatile airplane that has been upgraded with a new wing, gear, engines, fuselage lengths, etc. The logical fallacy is that some believe that since the 737 has been upgraded so many times before, it can’t be upgraded again. Only circuitous and anecdotal arguments that lack engineering rationale substantiate this fallacy. No one can point to a FAR, regulation or insurmountable engineering constraint preventing the 737 from being further upgraded. The 737-10 has proven that the airplane can still be stretched, and overcome obstacles such as ground clearance. An A322 has been floated around for at least 6 years, and yet has still not happened.
 
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:35 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
All talk about Boeing launching an 1:1 replacement for the 737 this summer, is absurd. The 737 will be in production for at least another 15 to 20 years. (!) That doesn't mean that Boeing shouldn't launch a new, clean-sheet narrowbody family now. Here is why...

The 737 family is a very profitable program for Boeing, a program with a huge backlog. But, the 737 is ageing and has been gradually loosing market share to the A320 family over the past 30 years. Market share isn't everything, profit margins are important as well. There is a balance needed between profit and market share. We all know what happened to McDonnell Douglas and their focus on profit margins alone.

One (of many) reason why the 737 backlog is huge, is that Airbus doesn't have the production facilities to deliver more A320 family aircraft, and there are engine shortages limiting production increases.

Airbus is not in the same position as Boeing. They can continue to upgrade the A320 family and possibly to a re-wing as some point. And Airbus has two narrowbody families. The A220 is very modern, is just starting up, and will have a long production run. A stretched family derivate, an A220-500, is definitely coming.

If we go 15 years back in time, Boeing delivered narrowbody aircraft from three different families (717, 737 and 757) at the same time. If we go even further back, to the mid-80`s, Boeing had four narrowbody families in production (707, 727, 737 and 757).

I think it is time for Boeing to launch a new narrowbody family, not as a 737 replacement, but as an increase of their product offerings. The new narrowbody family should hit Airbus exactly where it hurts the most, a direct competitor to the A321 and a competitor to the coming A321 XLR and the possible A322.

As some point the 737 will be retired. Replacing the 737 production will be an industrial challenge of epic proportions. The only way to do this is to have another narrowbody family bridging the gap.


I agree that the idea of launching a 1:1 737 replacement in summer 2019 is absurd.

However there is a logical fallacy in your post. You are assuming that the 737 can’t be upgraded. However, the 737 has proven to be a very versatile airplane that has been upgraded with a new wing, gear, engines, fuselage lengths, etc. The logical fallacy is that some believe that since the 737 has been upgraded so many times before, it can’t be upgraded again. Only circuitous and anecdotal arguments that lack engineering rationale substantiate this fallacy. No one can point to a FAR, regulation or insurmountable engineering constraint preventing the 737 from being further upgraded. The 737-10 has proven that the airplane can still be stretched, and overcome obstacles such as ground clearance. An A322 has been floated around for at least 6 years, and yet has still not happened.

The 737 could be upgraded with a CFRP wing with folding wingtips. This would reduce weight by tons, allow earlier high cruise in thinner air, and also improve underside aero (say a 3% to 4% reduction in fuel burn from that).

Boeing could also put in modern subsystems a la E2 to save another 3% in fuel burn. But doing this, Boeing would want a better engine. That requires new gear for engines and a whole new conops.

The engines are why I think this is the last generation of 737. They left 4% fuel burn on the table for the sake of commonality. Newer engines would have a 3.5:1 gearbox (vs. 3:1 for all current Pratts) which is another 2% drop in fuel burn, but requires a few more inches of fan diameter.

Perhaps Boeing goes the low cost route for time to market. But a rewinged A321 with new engines would gain another 3% on the 737 (if all the other stuff is done for both).

I see a hole in the market for a small mid-range widebody. At Paris I shall find out if I am right.

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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:53 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
I agree that the idea of launching a 1:1 737 replacement in summer 2019 is absurd.


Of course no one is saying Boeing should launch a 1:1 737 replacement in summer 2019. Again, you are slightly modifying what I said. But giving the new situation, the probability of Boeing looking at 737 alternatives has probably grown over the last week. After the 737MAX is fixed, Boeing will probably review its options for the second half of next decade. The NB situation did not get better.

Not offering a big, quiet, geared fan container carrying NB might not be the bold market proposition the Boeing sales teams are looking for, moving forward from 2025.
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:57 pm

Everyone, including Airbus, hopes the 737MAX issues will be resolved, lessons are learned and 737MAX deliveries can start up again. https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-agm-safety/airbus-chief-says-hopes-boeing-and-faa-can-resolve-737-max-crisis-soon-idUKKCN1RM1ZE

The 737 backlog is still significant if we assume no orders / commitments will be cancelled. Additional thousands 737 MAX must be sold, to keep the production line open until 2030, as foreseen recently.

At this moment Boeing faces:
:alert: 737MAX production cuts
:alert: uncertainty on future 737MAX sales
:alert: the A220 unexpectedly picking up, pushed by Airbus resources
:alert: Airbus playing with A220-500 concepts, openly
:alert: Southwest & Westjet, the biggest (only?) 737-7 customers converting -7 slots
:alert: A321 versions continue to outsell 737-9/-10. Paris Airshow (XLR) coming up

This might trigger Boeing to put a Boeing 737 replacement back on the table, sooner than later. E.g. as a plan B.

"It probably pushes it two to three years earlier than Boeing had originally planned," said Arvai.
https://www.fliegerfaust.com/how-will-airbus-leverage-this-new-asset-fallen-into-its-lap-future-boeing-plans-threatened-by-airbus-cseries-pact-https-t-co-7pplx1ksqm-https-t-co-i3gijsfltr-2497898175.html

On various forums, conferences it's becoming a topic. https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/121041-time-boeing-replace-737-a.html

:arrow: For an 797 NSA service entry by e.g. 2027, you still need to sell a lot of additional 737MAX to maintain cash flow.
:arrow: For an 797 NSA service entry by e.g. 2027, you need to start to talk airlines soon, to get ATO next year.

Image
Source: https://www.king5.com/article/news/planes-piling-up-as-737-max-grounding-continues/281-443ca005-4aa4-45c1-a52b-6504b2e2e5e7

Boeing's 2030 737 replacement target of last year, isn't the 2030 of today. The situation changed.
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:14 pm

keesje wrote:
The situation changed.

Yes and no.

The issue with NSA is there is no technology available now that will allow it to compete effectively with the competitor's offerings. The cost of developing and manufacturing an NSA does not deliver aircraft with enough improvement in economy to allow for the increased spend on R&D and manufacturing.

And there is no way forward for Boeing without fixing the 737. The hope of a graceful switch to NSA is a false hope. They can't do like VW did and buy back all the MAXes and park them in the desert and eat the cost till suitable NSA replacements can be made available.

Think of what you may of Boeing's strategy for handling the MAX crisis, but the one constant is the realization is they must fix the MAX first and foremost, and hope over time they can regain the confidence of their customers.

Like it or not, Boeing's future is tied to fixing the MAX, and as Airbus's statement shows, the entire industry's future is tied to fixing the MAX.
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:28 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:

:arrow: The MAX is seemingly sold out until 2025, after that the outlook is grey at best.]


That is an entirely unsubstantiated opinion. The 737MAX is selling well. The 737MAX outselling the A320neo family last year is clearly an indication that the outlook is not grey at best.


At what cost to Boeing and how much is that dependent on A320 being unavailable in an acceptable time frame?
MAX is a compromised product. "Letting out the air" via the crashes leaves gobs of white bones sticking out.
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:32 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
IMO, Boeing needs to do something - NMA, NSA, whatever - or risk losing lots of engineering talent and the current free cash flow. However, I couldn't care less what they end up doing. Whatever it is will be interesting and something to discuss (argue over) for years to come. Ditto with Airbus. Honestly, all this delaying is irritating on a message board but it'll happen when it happens.


This. They need to quit fumbling around. NMA appears by all accounts to be a good thing, but maybe they don’t need it. Leave it for a future product line. If they leave the 737/A319 market (seeing very little demand outside of Southwest) to the A220 and E-Jets and jump right to the bottom end being a 738/A320 bird, they would easily be able to support the lower capacity end of the NMA and let there just be a gap between the narrowbody and widebody market. Go 160, 180 and 200 in two class or 180, 200 and 220 in cattle class. This would basically give them the 738 plus the original 752/753 capacity in a single family. It was only the last decade where they crammed more seats in the 757 birds. I don’t remember any of them having more than 180 seats in two-class before then. Airbus doesn’t have anything in that arena either, and perhaps it doesn’t really exist all that much. Slap a 757 sized wing on it, maybe even larger, with folding wingtips for the performance benefits and you can get them into an ADG-III gate (737/A320).
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:47 pm

keesje wrote:
At this moment Boeing faces:
:alert: 737MAX production cuts


Leeham News says this is the real reason for the production cuts:

The rate was reduced from 52, citing the MAX grounding as the reason. But talk on the sidelines here suggests there may be another reason: continued slow engine deliveries from CFM.

Boeing is out of parking space at Renton Airport to store the grounded MAX. Around 20 airplanes have been flown to Everett’s Paine Field. But without engines, planes can’t be ferried. Without more parking space at Renton, there’s no place to put the airplanes. Hence the slower production rate.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/04/11/from- ... e-cutback/
 
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:07 pm

Given Boeings recent issues I don't see why NSA could not come before NMA - if I have it right and NMA/NSA are going to use Common Cockpits/Fuselage/Systems with different Gears/Wingbox/Wing/tails and a common production system.

From above I Said:

morrisond wrote:

Heck from an engineering standpoint they may be engineering NSA first and beefing up what they need to for NMA as it's probably easier to beef up than take weight out.

However from an Industrial standpoint it makes way more sense to learn to build NMA first at call it line rates of 10 per month before switching to NSA.

If NMA and NSA are this common they should be able to be produced on the same lines - just like Boeing is producing 77W/L/F and 777x on the same lines even though they have two completely different wings. At least NSA/NMA wings should be technically common - just probably different sizes.

That means if Boeing uses 747 space for initial NMA production - NSA prototypes could be build on the same line.



If they are as common as I'm guessing NSA should actually be easier to do first as presumably it may not have a folding wing and have to maxed out for range and performance.

By using the 747 production area they can get the wrinkles on Production ironed out while establishing a green field site in South Carolina.

Eventually the existing 737 site transitions as well as 737 production winds down and NMA is added to the line.

They take on extra risk as it will take time to learn how to ramp NSA/NMA.

The big question is can they deliver an NSA if it's based on the NMA in 6-7 years and does whatever is left of the MAX order book last that long?

Boeing's big risk is that if they announce they are going to switch to NSA first - who will order another MAX?

At the current backlog (assuming no cancellations) of 4,600 frames - that's about 7.4 years at rate 52 - they would probably need another few thousand to bridge to full NSA production.

They are probably better off to stick with the existing plan (NMA) first - for signalling they are not confident in MAX probably puts them in a worse position until they are ready to produce NSA in volume - which I guess would be about 2030 - if they base NSA on NMA and start producing NSA 2-3 years after NMA in 2028/2029.

They should be able to sell a lot more MAX's especially if they are no alternatives - and if they have to just discount them a few million more.

I would have to guess part of Boeing's comp to exisiting MAX operators will be additional MAX's helping to pad the backlog and offset losses.

Many ways to go - but if they announce a replacement soon they may put them themselves in a worse position versus gutting it out.

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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:34 pm

morrisond wrote:
If they Base NSA on NMA(same 7W Fuselage, Nose, systems - different wingbox/wing/gear/tai)l it's totally doable by 2027/2028 when new technology engines should be available - it shouldn't be that hard to extend the backlog until then.


My hunch all along is that NSA and NMA will be functionally the same - cockpit, systems, engines (but scaled for the appropriate thrusts), gear size and length could be the same, but lighter on the NSA for lower weights - but NSA will taper to a 6AB fuse while NMA will taper to a 7AB fuse. Wings and tail would obviously be different, but both IMO will have folding tips.

This would allow for the NMA, conceivably the higher margin product, to absorb most of the development costs, shorten the lead time for NSA, and potentially provide a common type rating between the two. 797-2/3 for NSA and 797-6/7 for NMA.
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:54 pm

9Patch wrote:
keesje wrote:
At this moment Boeing faces:
:alert: 737MAX production cuts


Leeham News says this is the real reason for the production cuts:

The rate was reduced from 52, citing the MAX grounding as the reason. But talk on the sidelines here suggests there may be another reason: continued slow engine deliveries from CFM.

Boeing is out of parking space at Renton Airport to store the grounded MAX. Around 20 airplanes have been flown to Everett’s Paine Field. But without engines, planes can’t be ferried. Without more parking space at Renton, there’s no place to put the airplanes. Hence the slower production rate.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/04/11/from- ... e-cutback/


Over the last month we have seen a continuous thick stream of up beat statements on Boeing recovering quickly, fixes close to ready, people forgetting, the MAX being fundamentally safe. One big "nothing to see here" show. The importance of a positive public perception is massive. Massive as in billions of dollars. Would you ignore that if you were Boeing, Boeing stock holder, supplier, stake holder, MAX pilot? The need for good news on Boeing is immense & people are getting served. Scroll back the past month & see it happening.

Behind closed doors, Boeing knows how solid / soft the backlog really is, if the FAA needs to prove something, what SW, DL and UA tell them. As a big company, you always need to have a plan B. The 737MAX itself was a plan B). You can't forecast based on propaganda. An NSA might costs a lot, no NSA might even more, ask MD. Airbus is not sitting on its hands either. They are the biggest on NB's now.

The US build A220-300's might be a pretty good fit replacing aging 737-700's with some airlines. Weighs 6t (!) less then a -7.. Let's try if they stay loyal? Looking the other way never proved a real good strategy.

Image


And there is no way forward for Boeing without fixing the 737. The hope of a graceful switch to NSA is a false hope. They can't do like VW did and buy back all the MAXes and park them in the desert and eat the cost till suitable NSA replacements can be made available.


Revelation you are correct. But the 737 won't be there for ever.
Replacing it 3-5 years to late is a worst case scenario.
For now, nobody is buying MAX anyway.
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:29 pm

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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:46 pm

keesje wrote:
Over the last month we have seen a continuous thick stream of up beat statements on Boeing recovering quickly, fixes close to ready, people forgetting, the MAX being fundamentally safe. One big "nothing to see here" show. The importance of a positive public perception is massive. Massive as in billions of dollars. Would you ignore that if you were Boeing, Boeing stock holder, supplier, stake holder, MAX pilot? The need for good news on Boeing is immense & people are getting served. Scroll back the past month & see it happening.

There are as many interpretations of changes in the stock price as there are analysts. I'm not seeing the cause->effect relationship your post suggests.

There's no doubt Boeing's brand has suffered damage, there is lots of doubt about various estimates of how deep and how long lived is that damage.

For instance, we have allegations of company wide unsound practices, yet we don't see passengers refusing to get on to 777, 787, 747-8, etc.

And we all know human nature, once this MAX fix that Airbus tells us is needed for the industry to heal happens, people will find other things to worry about.

keesje wrote:
The US build A220-300's might be a pretty good fit replacing aging 737-700's with some airlines. Weighs 6t (!) less then a -7.. Let's try if they stay loyal? Looking the other way never proved a real good strategy.

Here we have the old "magnify the significance of the MAX-7 to create an opening for the A220 where none exists" narrative now using the MAX tragedy to leverage it further.

keesje wrote:
But the 737 won't be there for ever.
Replacing it 3-5 years to late is a worst case scenario.

Fine, yet the "summer 2019" scenario being suggested is just not workable. The technology and the economics just don't line up under any realistic scenario.

keesje wrote:
For now, nobody is buying MAX anyway.

No one is now buying the A380 either, the difference is that we will see more MAX sales again, sooner than many would allow for.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:51 pm

The product is the least problem for Boeing. how airlines perceive the corporate culture is. At the moment most decision makers have learned their trade working with Boeing products and very few will never have worked with a Boeing product. Many appreciate the qualities of the Airbuses but the place in the heart is still taken by a Boeing. But this is the second time where penny pinching decisions caused trouble and led to long groundings and safety issues with a new plane. And it is not usual teething problems, but very intentional decisions in which money won over safety. Not such a great feeling to be the launch customer of a new plane.
 
9Patch
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:01 pm

keesje wrote:
You can't forecast based on propaganda.


You should follow your own advice.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:24 pm

9Patch wrote:
keesje wrote:
You can't forecast based on propaganda.

You should follow your own advice.

True, that.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
StTim
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:13 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
All talk about Boeing launching an 1:1 replacement for the 737 this summer, is absurd. The 737 will be in production for at least another 15 to 20 years. (!) That doesn't mean that Boeing shouldn't launch a new, clean-sheet narrowbody family now. Here is why...

The 737 family is a very profitable program for Boeing, a program with a huge backlog. But, the 737 is ageing and has been gradually loosing market share to the A320 family over the past 30 years. Market share isn't everything, profit margins are important as well. There is a balance needed between profit and market share. We all know what happened to McDonnell Douglas and their focus on profit margins alone.

One (of many) reason why the 737 backlog is huge, is that Airbus doesn't have the production facilities to deliver more A320 family aircraft, and there are engine shortages limiting production increases.

Airbus is not in the same position as Boeing. They can continue to upgrade the A320 family and possibly to a re-wing as some point. And Airbus has two narrowbody families. The A220 is very modern, is just starting up, and will have a long production run. A stretched family derivate, an A220-500, is definitely coming.

If we go 15 years back in time, Boeing delivered narrowbody aircraft from three different families (717, 737 and 757) at the same time. If we go even further back, to the mid-80`s, Boeing had four narrowbody families in production (707, 727, 737 and 757).

I think it is time for Boeing to launch a new narrowbody family, not as a 737 replacement, but as an increase of their product offerings. The new narrowbody family should hit Airbus exactly where it hurts the most, a direct competitor to the A321 and a competitor to the coming A321 XLR and the possible A322.

As some point the 737 will be retired. Replacing the 737 production will be an industrial challenge of epic proportions. The only way to do this is to have another narrowbody family bridging the gap.


I agree that the idea of launching a 1:1 737 replacement in summer 2019 is absurd.

However there is a logical fallacy in your post. You are assuming that the 737 can’t be upgraded. However, the 737 has proven to be a very versatile airplane that has been upgraded with a new wing, gear, engines, fuselage lengths, etc. The logical fallacy is that some believe that since the 737 has been upgraded so many times before, it can’t be upgraded again. Only circuitous and anecdotal arguments that lack engineering rationale substantiate this fallacy. No one can point to a FAR, regulation or insurmountable engineering constraint preventing the 737 from being further upgraded. The 737-10 has proven that the airplane can still be stretched, and overcome obstacles such as ground clearance. An A322 has been floated around for at least 6 years, and yet has still not happened.


True - it could be upgraded again but each upgrade now bumps against earlier compromises. To continue they need to bite the bullet and remove some (a lot) of those compromises.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:24 pm

keesje wrote:
Everyone, including Airbus, hopes the 737MAX issues will be resolved, lessons are learned and 737MAX deliveries can start up again. https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-agm-safety/airbus-chief-says-hopes-boeing-and-faa-can-resolve-737-max-crisis-soon-idUKKCN1RM1ZE

Everyone? Not even close, bud!

:rotfl:

Thanks, I needed that!

Not throwing shade on Enders, but that's "high road as I head off to the beach and drinks with umbrellas" corpspeak. But it is the high road at least.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:59 pm

9Patch wrote:
keesje wrote:
At this moment Boeing faces:
:alert: 737MAX production cuts


Leeham News says this is the real reason for the production cuts:

The rate was reduced from 52, citing the MAX grounding as the reason. But talk on the sidelines here suggests there may be another reason: continued slow engine deliveries from CFM.

Boeing is out of parking space at Renton Airport to store the grounded MAX. Around 20 airplanes have been flown to Everett’s Paine Field. But without engines, planes can’t be ferried. Without more parking space at Renton, there’s no place to put the airplanes. Hence the slower production rate.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/04/11/from- ... e-cutback/

If that's true, then aircraft will fly to storage, and have engines removed for further storage flights. Is that happening? And there will be no increase in deliveries to Airbus.

More likely Boeing is unwilling to pay CFM milestone payments on hundreds of undelivered aircraft, which in normal circumstances, would be met by customers.

Unlike Spirit, CFM has another option, which is build a different version for a customer wanting / needing them.
 
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TheRedBaron
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:10 pm

Love these never ending threads on the SA replacements of the future...since we have long made the 572 and the Mad dogs threads a thing of the past..

Boeing and Airbus will try to keep selling their current stuff as long as they can.... its like a Mexican standoff...

The new Boeing will cost gazillions and cant be the jack of all trades... so keep making money...

The A321 is selling really well but the MAX is a great seller... so Airbus keeps making happy money...

In reality we will see new anouncements but no launches.... and we will keep discusing this for some more months... until someone at BA or AB bite the bullet.

Best regards

TRB
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:44 pm

The fundamental problem with designing a new NB is it will cost probably at least $20 billion and they do not have technology that will give more than a low single digit efficiency improvement. Most of the efficiency improvement in any aircraft comes from the engines, not the airframe. So where is that money going to come from? Without significant efficiency improvement they cannot charge much more for it. The only possible path is to design it so that it costs significantly less to build. And that is where starting with the NMA makes a lot of sense. They can try new concepts on a low production plane without emperiling their bread and butter.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:07 pm

StTim wrote:
True - it could be upgraded again but each upgrade now bumps against earlier compromises. To continue they need to bite the bullet and remove some (a lot) of those compromises.


could you divulge some items that you think would fit that description?

IMU Airbus has the advantage of working on a well thought out abstract airplane model.
And they are not shy to put effort into certifying new stuff.
( Look at the NEO : twice the hours towards certification than the MAX.
Zero conversion time to the new type: not with Airbus. )

What kills Boeing is the hard limit that a 1960ties airframe as "working model" forces onto the designers.
One way to get out of under this issue is doing a new fully FBW aircraft that gets a 737 personality layered on.
( difficult to work out the 1960 737 model is really not well thought out as it already a onion layered design
going back to their early frames.)
See the path CPUs have taken. Todays Intel CPU is a modern and expandable RISC design wrapped
by an IA32/x86_64 personality.
Murphy is an optimist
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:24 pm

WIederling wrote:
StTim wrote:
True - it could be upgraded again but each upgrade now bumps against earlier compromises. To continue they need to bite the bullet and remove some (a lot) of those compromises.


could you divulge some items that you think would fit that description?

IMU Airbus has the advantage of working on a well thought out abstract airplane model.
And they are not shy to put effort into certifying new stuff.
( Look at the NEO : twice the hours towards certification than the MAX.
Zero conversion time to the new type: not with Airbus. )

What kills Boeing is the hard limit that a 1960ties airframe as "working model" forces onto the designers.
One way to get out of under this issue is doing a new fully FBW aircraft that gets a 737 personality layered on.
( difficult to work out the 1960 737 model is really not well thought out as it already a onion layered design
going back to their early frames.)
See the path CPUs have taken. Todays Intel CPU is a modern and expandable RISC design wrapped
by an IA32/x86_64 personality.


They sure put in a lot of effort in into the certification/testing with the engines, but the current A320-200 wing is over 30 years old :scratchchin:

Otherwise, you are spot on.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:23 pm

There is plenty opportunity to best the 737 (1967) and A320 (1990) with a new (2025) design.

:arrow: E.g. a LEAP engine with an 78 inch fan, instead of a LEAP engine with a 69 Inch brings in ~4% sfc. And it's quieter.
:arrow: Even higher BPR, probably geared engines will surface in the next 25 years. Better space on the 737..
:arrow: Moving luggage & cargo containerized instead of bulk grew enormously outside the US. Better offer the option.
:arrow: While many parts of the 737 have been updated / replaced over the decades, many not. An MRO cost opportunity
:arrow: Wing technology has moved on. Composites, morphing and high aspect ratio's can improve performance
:arrow: Bigger cross sections better suit higher capacity, medium haul operations. Little potential in the 737 left
:arrow: Production automation to reduce costs is hard to implement on the ancient 737 structures
:arrow: Extracting revenues from suppliers / MRO providers, Partnership for Success, works better on a new aircraft.
:arrow: If Airbus ramps up A220 / A320 series production to 100 aircraft a month, better offer some USP's, few left on 737.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:28 pm

oops, source for picture above: https://pwgtf.com/

Revelation wrote:

keesje wrote:
But the 737 won't be there for ever.
Replacing it 3-5 years to late is a worst case scenario.

Fine, yet the "summer 2019" scenario being suggested is just not workable. The technology and the economics just don't line up under any realistic scenario.


I think significant improvement over the 737 is possible, see previous post. Apart from that the world won't wait for Boeing. A220, A320, C919, MS21 will all grow at the cost of Boeing marketshare. E.g. because they have better, high BPR engines, lower weights, unique capabilities or lower costs.

Boeing recently seems to become a bit slow, (NSA/737MAX, 777X, NMA), using the language like "deliberate decisions" and "fully understanding the market" as if the market will wait for them.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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DL717
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:36 pm

SEPilot wrote:
The fundamental problem with designing a new NB is it will cost probably at least $20 billion and they do not have technology that will give more than a low single digit efficiency improvement. Most of the efficiency improvement in any aircraft comes from the engines, not the airframe. So where is that money going to come from? Without significant efficiency improvement they cannot charge much more for it. The only possible path is to design it so that it costs significantly less to build. And that is where starting with the NMA makes a lot of sense. They can try new concepts on a low production plane without emperiling their bread and butter.


Time is money. 10 years from now it will be $30 billion.
Welcome to Nothingburgers. May I take your order?
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:15 pm

DL717 wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
The fundamental problem with designing a new NB is it will cost probably at least $20 billion and they do not have technology that will give more than a low single digit efficiency improvement. Most of the efficiency improvement in any aircraft comes from the engines, not the airframe. So where is that money going to come from? Without significant efficiency improvement they cannot charge much more for it. The only possible path is to design it so that it costs significantly less to build. And that is where starting with the NMA makes a lot of sense. They can try new concepts on a low production plane without emperiling their bread and butter.


Time is money. 10 years from now it will be $30 billion.


The potential volumes are so high in the 737/320 segment that over the life of a potential frame even $30 Billion isn't a lot.

Over 20 years Boeing could easily produce 15,000 (especially if you consider NMA as part of the NSA program) - meaning only $2 million per frame at $30 B at 15,000 or assume only 5,000 sold (which I would guess they could potentially launch with if NSA is first) and $30B and that is only $6 million per frame.

Assuming Boeing's losses on MAX over the next year or two are less than $10B (it should be a lot less - even if you assume $3 million per passenger death (probably more like $1 million)- that is less than $1B and if you refunded the existing MAX operators half the cost of the frames they are already operating that would probably be less than $9B - they will probably get no where near that) they can still easily afford a $30B expense over the next 6 years - they might just have to suspend share buybacks though.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:39 pm

I think the question is not if Boeing wants to replace the 737, or how much it will cost to replace 737, or if a replacement is a big jump past the A320 family, but if Boeing will need to replace the 737.

If we look at the next years and both manufacturers will raise there production numbers, the A320 will draw away. It will get worse when either or both of the Chinese and Russian competitors become good enough to compete and start selling.

One part why the 737MAXis still selling, is availability, the backlog for the A320 family is just to big, but that could change with rising production numbers.

If Boeing does not start out with a replacement soon, they will be left with an old outdated product. If something should happen to certification, perhaps reducing grandfathering, Boeing will be hit hard.

So I assume Boeing will need to start on the 737 replacement just to keep up.
 
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ODwyerPW
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:17 pm

keesje wrote:
:arrow: If Airbus ramps up A220 / A320 series production to 100 aircraft a month, better offer some USP's, few left on 737.


c'mon man. just stop. and monkeys might fly out of my butt. 737 replacement must launch in 2019 because Airbus is about to perform a production miracle?

you need a new shtick … 737 dooming Boeing because A320 is awesome (and it is awesome.. no doubting it).. we know , we know, we know... we've heard it over and over again.

NMA launch 2019-2020... NSA launch between 2024-2025 using production systems developed for NMA. Perhaps NSA will launch before NMA has actually entered service, once the cost saving production methods are proving out.....
learning never stops.
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:50 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
They sure put in a lot of effort in into the certification/testing with the engines, but the current A320-200 wing is over 30 years old :scratchchin:

Otherwise, you are spot on.

There seems to be more life in the A320 wing than in the revamped one on the NG/MAX, right?
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Polot
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:51 pm

WIederling wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
They sure put in a lot of effort in into the certification/testing with the engines, but the current A320-200 wing is over 30 years old :scratchchin:

Otherwise, you are spot on.

There seems to be more life in the A320 wing than in the revamped one on the NG/MAX, right?

I’m not sure how anyone can really say that.

The A320 could stand to be enlarged some for the upper end of the market.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:45 pm

keesje wrote:
There is plenty opportunity to best the 737 (1967) and A320 (1990) with a new (2025) design.


OK, but is that opportunity enough to justify the development time and cost? Back in 2010 or so, Boeing thought the answer was yes. The airlines disagreed and that is how we ended up with the MAX.

:arrow: E.g. a LEAP engine with an 78 inch fan, instead of a LEAP engine with a 69 Inch brings in ~4% sfc. And it's quieter.


:boggled: Why stop at 78"? Let's do 86" and then we can pretend we've got a narrowbody with CF6es ;)

:arrow: Even higher BPR, probably geared engines will surface in the next 25 years. Better space on the 737.


Yes, this is the 737's key weakness, and the best argument for a new frame. The question, again, is whether using the optimal fan size for the new engine brings enough benefit to be worth the cost of developing a whole new frame. And again it looks like Boeing thinks so. It's pretty obvious that much of the NMA/MOM development work is aimed at reuse on NSA. But will the airlines give Boeing the time to finish the work? Maybe an even higher BPR engine will change the answer, which was "no" last time around.

:arrow: Moving luggage & cargo containerized instead of bulk grew enormously outside the US. Better offer the option.


If this can be done without affecting economics in other ways, sure. I don't think it's as important as you think, though. If it were, the A320neo would have a transaction price premium relative to the MAX 8.

:arrow: While many parts of the 737 have been updated / replaced over the decades, many not. An MRO cost opportunity


This is true, although Airbus is in more or less the same boat.

:arrow: Wing technology has moved on. Composites, morphing and high aspect ratio's can improve performance


Indeed.

:arrow: Bigger cross sections better suit higher capacity, medium haul operations. Little potential in the 737 left


:shakehead: The 737's smaller cross section is maybe the single biggest factor keeping it competitive despite the disadvantages. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see NSA remain smaller across than an A320, maybe using 777X lessons to expand cabin width a bit with thinner sidewalls. I don't think a short-haul airliner needs 18" seats to sell well.

:arrow: Production automation to reduce costs is hard to implement on the ancient 737 structures


That might be news to Boeing, which has been automating various parts of 737 assembly for years.

:arrow: Extracting revenues from suppliers / MRO providers, Partnership for Success, works better on a new aircraft.


Not sure about this one. The volume of the 737 program gives Boeing an awful lot of leverage. The new program brings potential upside, but also risk.

:arrow: If Airbus ramps up A220 / A320 series production to 100 aircraft a month, better offer some USP's, few left on 737.


The MAX 8 will continue to do fine against the A320neo unless/until Airbus stretches the latter by 2 or 3 rows.
Can Airbus sell that many A321neos? :shakehead:
Can Airbus ramp up production that fast? :shakehead:
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