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1989worstyear
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:34 pm

WIederling wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
They sure put in a lot of effort in into the certification/testing with the engines, but the current A320-200 wing is over 30 years old :scratchchin:

Otherwise, you are spot on.

There seems to be more life in the A320 wing than in the revamped one on the NG/MAX, right?


Oh - I'm referring to a modern clean-sheet from this century, not Boeing catching up to Hair Metal Era (1988) Airbus tech with the NG and MAX.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:40 pm

keesje wrote:
There is plenty opportunity to best the 737 (1967) and A320 (1990) with a new (2025) design.

:arrow: E.g. a LEAP engine with an 78 inch fan, instead of a LEAP engine with a 69 Inch brings in ~4% sfc. And it's quieter.
:arrow: Even higher BPR, probably geared engines will surface in the next 25 years. Better space on the 737..
:arrow: Moving luggage & cargo containerized instead of bulk grew enormously outside the US. Better offer the option.
:arrow: While many parts of the 737 have been updated / replaced over the decades, many not. An MRO cost opportunity
:arrow: Wing technology has moved on. Composites, morphing and high aspect ratio's can improve performance
:arrow: Bigger cross sections better suit higher capacity, medium haul operations. Little potential in the 737 left
:arrow: Production automation to reduce costs is hard to implement on the ancient 737 structures
:arrow: Extracting revenues from suppliers / MRO providers, Partnership for Success, works better on a new aircraft.
:arrow: If Airbus ramps up A220 / A320 series production to 100 aircraft a month, better offer some USP's, few left on 737.

Image


:shakehead:

The A320-100 was certified in early '88, and the current -200 at the end of the year. Not '90.

Production began in '87.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
Chemist
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:38 pm

WIederling wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
They sure put in a lot of effort in into the certification/testing with the engines, but the current A320-200 wing is over 30 years old :scratchchin:

Otherwise, you are spot on.

There seems to be more life in the A320 wing than in the revamped one on the NG/MAX, right?


Isn't one of the reasons the A320 has less range than the 737 is the low fuel volume in its older wing?
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 6:36 am

Chemist wrote:
Isn't one of the reasons the A320 has less range than the 737 is the low fuel volume in its older wing?

What impact does available fuel volume have on aerodynamic properties and performance?

"Happy Families" rules work for schoolkids but not for tech questions. :-=
Murphy is an optimist
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:28 am

1989worstyear wrote:
WIederling wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
They sure put in a lot of effort in into the certification/testing with the engines, but the current A320-200 wing is over 30 years old :scratchchin:

Otherwise, you are spot on.

There seems to be more life in the A320 wing than in the revamped one on the NG/MAX, right?


Oh - I'm referring to a modern clean-sheet from this century, not Boeing catching up to Hair Metal Era (1988) Airbus tech with the NG and MAX.


If your assumption that a 2020 wing intrinsically will be much better than an Airbus 80ties design
would be correct Boeing would have long done the NSA .. and trashed the A320 soundly.

This is not the case.
( same actually for A330 and 787. aero performance delta of the wings apparently is minimal.
Either there is marginal progress or Airbus has something over Boeing :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:58 am

WIederling wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
WIederling wrote:
There seems to be more life in the A320 wing than in the revamped one on the NG/MAX, right?


Oh - I'm referring to a modern clean-sheet from this century, not Boeing catching up to Hair Metal Era (1988) Airbus tech with the NG and MAX.


If your assumption that a 2020 wing intrinsically will be much better than an Airbus 80ties design
would be correct Boeing would have long done the NSA .. and trashed the A320 soundly.

This is not the case.
( same actually for A330 and 787. aero performance delta of the wings apparently is minimal.
Either there is marginal progress or Airbus has something over Boeing :-)


Or innovation stopped after 1988 ;)
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
fightforlove
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:03 am

keesje wrote:
2175301 wrote:

:arrow: Boeing will align with Embraer. Re-opening the <150 segment, where Boeing missed out in recent years.


Any idea on when we can expect to see this happen? Is the E2 a legit A220 competitor? Does Embraer have any new prototypes in the works?
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:26 pm

fightforlove wrote:
keesje wrote:
2175301 wrote:

:arrow: Boeing will align with Embraer. Re-opening the <150 segment, where Boeing missed out in recent years.


Any idea on when we can expect to see this happen? Is the E2 a legit A220 competitor? Does Embraer have any new prototypes in the works?


It is bound to be launched apparently politics have approved the deal. The 737-7 seems to be sidelined by Southwest and Westjet, so it seems defacto a dead program. The E195E2 grew significantly over the E195, definetely overlapping with the smaller A220. Personally I expect Boeing-Embraer to invest in this E2 program. To e.g. have a strong alternative in the upcoming 500 to be replaced Southwest 737-700s requirement.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:46 pm

keesje wrote:
Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
But the 737 won't be there for ever.
Replacing it 3-5 years to late is a worst case scenario.

Fine, yet the "summer 2019" scenario being suggested is just not workable. The technology and the economics just don't line up under any realistic scenario.

I think significant improvement over the 737 is possible, see previous post. Apart from that the world won't wait for Boeing. A220, A320, C919, MS21 will all grow at the cost of Boeing marketshare. E.g. because they have better, high BPR engines, lower weights, unique capabilities or lower costs.

Right, but the question you put forward was not "Is significant improvement over the 737 possible?", which is a very open ended question that puts no bounds on time, money, installed base, etc. It seems you don't want to directly address the question you did raise when starting the thread, "Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?", which is frustrating, because you start off by asking one question and proceed to avoid answering it. For instance, my reply above would have been a great time to tell us why the summer 2019 scenario is feasible, yet the response is along the lines that someone somehow someday can improve the 737. Or you could have addressed all the points raised by seabosdca at the top of this page, instead you go off on the tired old 737-7 tangent. I see lots of motion but no action. Hemingway would be disappointed.
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mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:55 pm

Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
Revelation wrote:

Fine, yet the "summer 2019" scenario being suggested is just not workable. The technology and the economics just don't line up under any realistic scenario.

I think significant improvement over the 737 is possible, see previous post. Apart from that the world won't wait for Boeing. A220, A320, C919, MS21 will all grow at the cost of Boeing marketshare. E.g. because they have better, high BPR engines, lower weights, unique capabilities or lower costs.

Right, but the question you put forward was not "Is significant improvement over the 737 possible?", which is a very open ended question that puts no bounds on time, money, installed base, etc. It seems you don't want to directly address the question you did raise when starting the thread, "Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?", which is frustrating, because you start off by asking one question and proceed to avoid answering it. For instance, my reply above would have been a great time to tell us why the summer 2019 scenario is feasible, yet the response is along the lines that someone somehow someday can improve the 737. Or you could have addressed all the points raised by seabosdca at the top of this page, instead you go off on the tired old 737-7 tangent. I see lots of motion but no action. Hemingway would be disappointed.


The point is, are improvements over the 737 necessary? The current boom leads IMO to, that everything that is on offer, even if it is only from two that can offer, is bought. How will that situation be when backlogs come down.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 3:10 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
The point is, are improvements over the 737 necessary? The current boom leads IMO to, that everything that is on offer, even if it is only from two that can offer, is bought. How will that situation be when backlogs come down.

I think we can't answer that question right now, because although we can speculate, no one can predict the long term impact the current crisis will have on 737. I think we can also say that Boeing has no other choice than to put all resources it has in to getting past the current crisis. Even Airbus CEO Tom Enders says getting the 737 flying again is vital for the industry, because once the public loses confidence in one product, no one knows where or how far the concern will spread.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:34 pm

Revelation wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
The point is, are improvements over the 737 necessary? The current boom leads IMO to, that everything that is on offer, even if it is only from two that can offer, is bought. How will that situation be when backlogs come down.

I think we can't answer that question right now, because although we can speculate, no one can predict the long term impact the current crisis will have on 737. I think we can also say that Boeing has no other choice than to put all resources it has in to getting past the current crisis. Even Airbus CEO Tom Enders says getting the 737 flying again is vital for the industry, because once the public loses confidence in one product, no one knows where or how far the concern will spread.


Yes the 737MAX will fly again. We can have different opinions how much Boeing will have to do,

But here we are not talking about the grounding. I was talking about the possibility that production rates will match or beat order rates and the backlogs coming down. If there is no shortage of slots, will orders for the 737 family decrease more than orders for the A320 family.
 
Chemist
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Apr 14, 2019 2:48 am

WIederling wrote:
Chemist wrote:
Isn't one of the reasons the A320 has less range than the 737 is the low fuel volume in its older wing?

What impact does available fuel volume have on aerodynamic properties and performance?

"Happy Families" rules work for schoolkids but not for tech questions. :-=


It affects range, which is part of aircraft performance. :hyper:
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:19 am

Chemist wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Chemist wrote:
Isn't one of the reasons the A320 has less range than the 737 is the low fuel volume in its older wing?

What impact does available fuel volume have on aerodynamic properties and performance?

"Happy Families" rules work for schoolkids but not for tech questions. :-=


It affects range, which is part of aircraft performance. :hyper:

haha
It is a design decision. On the A320 family the change in requirements is handled by those AUX tanks.

I am talking about things like L/D, how far you get with a ton of fuel ....
i.e. the aerodynamic constraints of a wing design.
And in that domain it looks like things haven't moved much
( and the NG wing, though younger, definitely does not outperform the older Airbus design.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Apr 14, 2019 2:01 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Revelation wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
The point is, are improvements over the 737 necessary? The current boom leads IMO to, that everything that is on offer, even if it is only from two that can offer, is bought. How will that situation be when backlogs come down.

I think we can't answer that question right now, because although we can speculate, no one can predict the long term impact the current crisis will have on 737. I think we can also say that Boeing has no other choice than to put all resources it has in to getting past the current crisis. Even Airbus CEO Tom Enders says getting the 737 flying again is vital for the industry, because once the public loses confidence in one product, no one knows where or how far the concern will spread.

Yes the 737MAX will fly again. We can have different opinions how much Boeing will have to do,

But here we are not talking about the grounding. I was talking about the possibility that production rates will match or beat order rates and the backlogs coming down. If there is no shortage of slots, will orders for the 737 family decrease more than orders for the A320 family.

When I speak of long term impact, I am not talking about time till the MAX fix gets approved and financial impacts, I'm talking about long term confidence in the product.

As much as some can't wrap their head around it, the MAX is an effective competitor to the NEO, and has sold for reasons other than the lack of NEO production slots.

If full confidence in the product is restored MAX will again be an effective competitor to NEO, yet none of us can now predict if full confidence will be restored, and if so, when.

For instance after the 737 rudder crisis some customers moved away from product and never went back, whereas most customers did not seem to factor that into their MAX purchasing decisions.

Given the depth of the MAX backlog and presuming no further crisis situations, I think we could see something close to a full recovery.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Chemist
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:56 pm

WIederling wrote:
Chemist wrote:
WIederling wrote:
What impact does available fuel volume have on aerodynamic properties and performance?

"Happy Families" rules work for schoolkids but not for tech questions. :-=


It affects range, which is part of aircraft performance. :hyper:

haha
It is a design decision. On the A320 family the change in requirements is handled by those AUX tanks.

I am talking about things like L/D, how far you get with a ton of fuel ....
i.e. the aerodynamic constraints of a wing design.
And in that domain it looks like things haven't moved much
( and the NG wing, though younger, definitely does not outperform the older Airbus design.)


I agree that if you limit the performance criteria to those you find important, then the wings are equally as good. :lol:
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:48 am

Revelation wrote:
When I speak of long term impact, I am not talking about time till the MAX fix gets approved and financial impacts, I'm talking about long term confidence in the product.

As much as some can't wrap their head around it, the MAX is an effective competitor to the NEO, and has sold for reasons other than the lack of NEO production slots.


This is particularly true at the lower end of the size range, and it absolutely breaks some posters' brains. It is pretty clear that the 737 MAX 8 has outsold the A320neo during the time when both have been on the market, but I've had several debates with people who just can't accept that that could possibly be the case.

If full confidence in the product is restored MAX will again be an effective competitor to NEO, yet none of us can now predict if full confidence will be restored, and if so, when.

For instance after the 737 rudder crisis some customers moved away from product and never went back, whereas most customers did not seem to factor that into their MAX purchasing decisions.

Given the depth of the MAX backlog and presuming no further crisis situations, I think we could see something close to a full recovery.


I think there will be, at a minimum, a period of time during which there is reluctance at many airlines to sign new orders for MAXes. Once a couple years of MAX operations have passed without any further MCAS-related incidents (we hope), then I think the reluctance will fade. And the availability at that point will likely be pretty compelling.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:18 am

Revelation wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I think we can't answer that question right now, because although we can speculate, no one can predict the long term impact the current crisis will have on 737. I think we can also say that Boeing has no other choice than to put all resources it has in to getting past the current crisis. Even Airbus CEO Tom Enders says getting the 737 flying again is vital for the industry, because once the public loses confidence in one product, no one knows where or how far the concern will spread.

Yes the 737MAX will fly again. We can have different opinions how much Boeing will have to do,

But here we are not talking about the grounding. I was talking about the possibility that production rates will match or beat order rates and the backlogs coming down. If there is no shortage of slots, will orders for the 737 family decrease more than orders for the A320 family.

When I speak of long term impact, I am not talking about time till the MAX fix gets approved and financial impacts, I'm talking about long term confidence in the product.

As much as some can't wrap their head around it, the MAX is an effective competitor to the NEO, and has sold for reasons other than the lack of NEO production slots.

If full confidence in the product is restored MAX will again be an effective competitor to NEO, yet none of us can now predict if full confidence will be restored, and if so, when.

For instance after the 737 rudder crisis some customers moved away from product and never went back, whereas most customers did not seem to factor that into their MAX purchasing decisions.

Given the depth of the MAX backlog and presuming no further crisis situations, I think we could see something close to a full recovery.


Perhaps it is on the other side difficult to wrap ones head around, that the 737MAX family does not match up to the A320 family. The MAX backlog, seen by itself quite big, does not match the neo backlog by quite a margin.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:21 am

seabosdca wrote:
Revelation wrote:
When I speak of long term impact, I am not talking about time till the MAX fix gets approved and financial impacts, I'm talking about long term confidence in the product.

As much as some can't wrap their head around it, the MAX is an effective competitor to the NEO, and has sold for reasons other than the lack of NEO production slots.


This is particularly true at the lower end of the size range, and it absolutely breaks some posters' brains. It is pretty clear that the 737 MAX 8 has outsold the A320neo during the time when both have been on the market, but I've had several debates with people who just can't accept that that could possibly be the case.

If full confidence in the product is restored MAX will again be an effective competitor to NEO, yet none of us can now predict if full confidence will be restored, and if so, when.

For instance after the 737 rudder crisis some customers moved away from product and never went back, whereas most customers did not seem to factor that into their MAX purchasing decisions.

Given the depth of the MAX backlog and presuming no further crisis situations, I think we could see something close to a full recovery.


I think there will be, at a minimum, a period of time during which there is reluctance at many airlines to sign new orders for MAXes. Once a couple years of MAX operations have passed without any further MCAS-related incidents (we hope), then I think the reluctance will fade. And the availability at that point will likely be pretty compelling.


Marketshare 737 & A320.
Well I can see a ton of hope here. I won't go into perception tricks on 737-8 outselling A320 in selected time frames, ignoring conversion etc. done that, been there. I guess its clear to all who's seeling at probably the best margin. Few switches from A320 to 737, the other way around, there an impressive list including AA, QF, DL and many more.

Image


On the future of MAX
Most likely it will be back in service after the summer, give or take a few months. And the sales balance would be restored shortly after, if both aircraft were as good & the market didn't change substantially. I think both would be incorrect assumptions. To repeat, one has choice of 2 better engines, can do containers & fly TATL with 220 passengers.

Boeing knows better than any one of us.
Regardless of what they communicate, most probably, hopefully Boeing has a plan B on the table this summer.

"Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table"
Some tried to translate that into me announcing a "launch". To have sorrow straw-man to attack. "Back on the table" it having an option, it's negotiable again. https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/on%20the%20table

This post isn't about the current MAX crisis.
I started this thread a few weeks before the 2nd crash. I think the likelihood of Boeing pulling forward a 737 replacement program / shrinking the NMA has not become smaller though. Contrary.
https://www.ibtimes.com/boeing-might-replace-737-max-new-planes-regain-trust-2785435
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2019/03/15/should-boeing-have-replaced-the-737-instead-of-re-engining-it/#546d26211061
https://leehamnews.com/2019/03/20/boeing-didnt-want-to-re-engine-the-737-but-had-design-standing-by/
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:44 am

N14AZ wrote:
keesje wrote:
The boys in Bordeaux probably prefer Boeing going for a real big, capable WB NMA, while they sit around the table with UA, JAL and KLM.

Bordeaux? :scratchchin:

It sounds catchy
 
Geoff1947
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:48 am

Help me please. If it doesn’t make sense to spend gazillions on an all new NSA how does it make sense to spend gazillions on an all new NMA ?

Thanks

Geoff
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:47 am

Geoff1947 wrote:
Help me please. If it doesn’t make sense to spend gazillions on an all new NSA how does it make sense to spend gazillions on an all new NMA ?

Thanks

Geoff


Good question. I'm sure Boeing has been asking themselves, explaining the 6-7 yrs MoM / NMA decision process so far. And then, there are a3rd and 4th option. Do nothing, or try to combine NMA & NSA as much as marketable.

I think doing nothing would lead to significant market share loss in the 100-250 seat segment in the next decade. Maybe not a healthy plan.
The 4th option combining NSA and NMA is becoming more likely IMO. Further good 787-8 upgrades could make it even more feasible.

Image

At least it would kick the Airbus folks out of their current comfort zone and get creative again.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:02 pm

seabosdca wrote:
Revelation wrote:
When I speak of long term impact, I am not talking about time till the MAX fix gets approved and financial impacts, I'm talking about long term confidence in the product.

As much as some can't wrap their head around it, the MAX is an effective competitor to the NEO, and has sold for reasons other than the lack of NEO production slots.

This is particularly true at the lower end of the size range, and it absolutely breaks some posters' brains. It is pretty clear that the 737 MAX 8 has outsold the A320neo during the time when both have been on the market, but I've had several debates with people who just can't accept that that could possibly be the case.

Thanks for quoting what I wrote, instead of twisting it into saying something different, because I did pick my words carefully.

Another thing that is hard for people to understand is that there is more to product success than market share.

It's easy to get a large market share, just accept lower profits.

John Leahy's post retirement interviews made it clear that Airbus's goal was market share rather than establishing and maintaining a profit.

seabosdca wrote:
Revelation wrote:
If full confidence in the product is restored MAX will again be an effective competitor to NEO, yet none of us can now predict if full confidence will be restored, and if so, when.

For instance after the 737 rudder crisis some customers moved away from product and never went back, whereas most customers did not seem to factor that into their MAX purchasing decisions.

Given the depth of the MAX backlog and presuming no further crisis situations, I think we could see something close to a full recovery.

I think there will be, at a minimum, a period of time during which there is reluctance at many airlines to sign new orders for MAXes. Once a couple years of MAX operations have passed without any further MCAS-related incidents (we hope), then I think the reluctance will fade. And the availability at that point will likely be pretty compelling.

It's interesting how little note is taken here of Airbus CEO Tom Enders's comments on how important it is for the industry that the MAX recover.

It seems the unspoken hope is the exact opposite.

Bottom line is that there is no way forward for both Boeing and for the entire airliner industry other than restoring confidence in the MAX.

I think it's human nature to overreact to a tragedy, and over time once things are better understood, recovery happens.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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VSMUT
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:11 pm

seabosdca wrote:
keesje wrote:
Bigger cross sections better suit higher capacity, medium haul operations. Little potential in the 737 left


:shakehead: The 737's smaller cross section is maybe the single biggest factor keeping it competitive despite the disadvantages. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see NSA remain smaller across than an A320, maybe using 777X lessons to expand cabin width a bit with thinner sidewalls. I don't think a short-haul airliner needs 18" seats to sell well.


Every successive new narrowbody is increasing the fuselage width. The C919 and MC-21 both exceed the A320. In the size category below, the A220 and Superjet increased the fuselage width by quite a bit over the E-jet. It seems really dubious to claim that Boeing has somehow found a holy grail by going the opposite way of everyone else. But hey, some claimed that the smaller fan of the 737MAX's engine was better for shorter flights, despite even smaller dedicated regional jets featuring bigger fans...


keesje wrote:
Boeing knows better than any one of us.


Do they [Boeing's management] really? Because everything that has come out about the 737MAX development process screams the opposite, starting right from the point at which they thought the 737NG was sufficient to compete with the A320NEO.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:03 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Every successive new narrowbody is increasing the fuselage width. The C919 and MC-21 both exceed the A320. In the size category below, the A220 and Superjet increased the fuselage width by quite a bit over the E-jet. It seems really dubious to claim that Boeing has somehow found a holy grail by going the opposite way of everyone else. But hey, some claimed that the smaller fan of the 737MAX's engine was better for shorter flights, despite even smaller dedicated regional jets featuring bigger fans.


TBH I don't think either the C919 or the MC-21 was designed with the focus on economics that the big two, neither of which has a captive local market, have to apply.

Boeing has been enjoying great success of late in the widebody market with its approach of using the narrowest cross-section that can possibly work for a given seating layout at standard airline seat widths (10Y 777, 9Y 787). In the 787's case in particular I think the lower weight and drag that approach allows has been essential to its continued success against the A350, which has one-step-better engines.

I also think the narrower fuselage is what has allowed the 737 to remain competitive against the A320.

So, yes, I think a narrower fuselage could help Boeing. I don't see any reason it would have to be accompanied by smaller fans; the 757 shows you can put tall gear on a narrow fuselage just fine.

Do they [Boeing's management] really? Because everything that has come out about the 737MAX development process screams the opposite, starting right from the point at which they thought the 737NG was sufficient to compete with the A320NEO.


No one inside Boeing actually thought that, of course. The claim was to give Boeing sales a fig leaf during the time between A320neo launch and MAX launch. It was based on a carefully cherry-picked scenario that wasn't reflective of most airline missions.

The last time I think Boeing was actually that deluded about its products' competitive position was way back when it was trying to sell the 737-400 for the same price as an A320.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:25 pm

keesje wrote:
Geoff1947 wrote:
Help me please. If it doesn’t make sense to spend gazillions on an all new NSA how does it make sense to spend gazillions on an all new NMA ?

Thanks

Geoff


Good question. I'm sure Boeing has been asking themselves, explaining the 6-7 yrs MoM / NMA decision process so far. And then, there are a3rd and 4th option. Do nothing, or try to combine NMA & NSA as much as marketable.

I think doing nothing would lead to significant market share loss in the 100-250 seat segment in the next decade. Maybe not a healthy plan.
The 4th option combining NSA and NMA is becoming more likely IMO. Further good 787-8 upgrades could make it even more feasible.

Image

At least it would kick the Airbus folks out of their current comfort zone and get creative again.


Hi Keesje - It will be good to get back to debating you on these threads vs the Endless MAX threads.

Does this mean you think NSA/NMA is 7W or are you sticking with Wide Single Aisle for both - common Cockpit/Cross Section - different wing/wingbox/gear/tail?

Personally I think the Partnership with Embraer spawns E195 offshoots to take over the 737-7 space - however for it to really work I think Boeing and Embraer do a new 5W cleansheet to take on this market and the C-Series with Common Cockpit and Systems with NMA/NSA/787.

One of the big reasons I like 7W for NMA/NSA is the ability to do a nice 2x2x2 Domestic Business class in the front or 1x1x1 Sleepers for NMA TATL Length missions.

Given the premium seats are in general the profit on most flights - the more of these per meter of fuselage the better.

This led me to the Eureka moment when I saw Delta go 2x2 Domestic Business on the C-Series which is a big advantage over an 3x3 Single Aisle than can only take 2x2 Domestic Business class as well - however you have to carry around all that extra structure to support the 3x3 Y seats on a single aisle.

Keep it light (Boeing/Embraer 5W) and under 3,000nm range and then you have NSA/NMA for missions that require more capacity or range.

Common type rating so Airlines like Southwest can use all three interchangeably.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:26 pm

seabosdca wrote:
TBH I don't think either the C919 or the MC-21 was designed with the focus on economics that the big two, neither of which has a captive local market, have to apply.


That's a pretty risky assumption, don't you think? What if that is their intention? And again, every other aircraft, western as eastern, have increased fuselage width. Even Boeing.

seabosdca wrote:
Boeing has been enjoying great success of late in the widebody market with its approach of using the narrowest cross-section that can possibly work for a given seating layout at standard airline seat widths (10Y 777, 9Y 787). In the 787's case in particular I think the lower weight and drag that approach allows has been essential to its continued success against the A350, which has one-step-better engines.


Nonsense. The 777 was wider than all direct competitors, namely the A340 and MD-11. The 787 is wider than the A330 and 767. Boeing has consistently been increasing the width on its widebody offerings.


seabosdca wrote:
I also think the narrower fuselage is what has allowed the 737 to remain competitive against the A320.


The 737 is a 1960s compromise. It has to keep the weight lower in order to remain competitive. A clean-sheet won't have to. Keep in mind, a wider fuselage also creates a tad more lift, so it isn't just increased drag that results from such a move.


seabosdca wrote:
No one inside Boeing actually thought that, of course. The claim was to give Boeing sales a fig leaf during the time between A320neo launch and MAX launch. It was based on a carefully cherry-picked scenario that wasn't reflective of most airline missions.

The last time I think Boeing was actually that deluded about its products' competitive position was way back when it was trying to sell the 737-400 for the same price as an A320.


Judging from the disgruntled engineers who stepped forward just after the MAX grounding began, that isn't what they recall. Boeing indeed arrogantly tried to sell 737-800s as equals of the A320NEO, right until American Airlines decided Airbus was good enough...
 
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:32 pm

A successful NMA will indeed set up a narrower NSA, and with thinned sidewalls both the 320 and 737 in all versions will be superannuated. The big question is how many decades do the old narrow-bodies have left?
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:00 pm

VSMUT wrote:
That's a pretty risky assumption, don't you think? What if that is their intention? And again, every other aircraft, western as eastern, have increased fuselage width. Even Boeing.


The MC-21 is a vanity project.

The C919 is a very serious effort, but the goal is not to compete against Western airliners on economics, but to establish a local capability to build airliners. From a strategic standpoint it makes total sense to make the most comfortable airliner, not the most efficient one, for public relations reasons. The efficiency can come in the next generation or two, once the Chinese have established that they can build, and support local examples of, a safe airliner. Only at that point will they start trying to sell outside China and compete directly with Airbus or Boeing.

Nonsense. The 777 was wider than all direct competitors, namely the A340 and MD-11. The 787 is wider than the A330 and 767. Boeing has consistently been increasing the width on its widebody offerings.


This is only right if you think the 777 and 787 were originally intended as 9Y and 8Y, respectively. Start with the 787. I believe it's clear that the 787 was intended as 9Y from day one, and that it wasn't initially marketed as such for a combination of internal political reasons and PR benefits. As a 9Y airliner, the 787 was narrower than its 9Y predecessors (777 and DC-10/MD-11).

The 777X is absolutely intended for 10Y, and like the 787 is narrower than its 10Y predecessors, including both the 747 and A380. But I'll grant you that the original 777 was intended as a wider 9Y—and that is a decision Boeing has had to undo, first by squeezing 10Y into the 777 for most operators taking new deliveries after the 787 and A350 became available to order, and then by optimizing the 777X for 10Y.

The 737 is a 1960s compromise. It has to keep the weight lower in order to remain competitive. A clean-sheet won't have to. Keep in mind, a wider fuselage also creates a tad more lift, so it isn't just increased drag that results from such a move.


I think it's clear from the experience of suboptimal fuselage widths (most prominently the 767) that additional lift doesn't make up for additional weight and drag from a wider fuselage. Engine technology is not going to provide Boeing with a major improvement over the A320neo in the foreseeable future. Particularly if NMA allows them to optimize NSA for a bit lower payload range than you see in the A321neo, I think their best route toward a competitive product is to squeeze weight ruthlessly while carrying the weight with a cutting-edge wing.

Judging from the disgruntled engineers who stepped forward just after the MAX grounding began, that isn't what they recall. Boeing indeed arrogantly tried to sell 737-800s as equals of the A320NEO, right until American Airlines decided Airbus was good enough...


Disgruntled are going to be disgruntled. They also claimed the 787 would never fly.

I remember the "737-800 has better per seat fuel consumption than A320neo" claim, the assumptions under which it was true (a mission length under 500 nm with a relatively low-density layout to maximize the per-seat effect of 12 additional seats), and the general chuckling that accompanied it. I'm sure salespeople were earnestly reciting it and putting it in slide decks, and I'm sure everyone on all sides (including the Boeing side) saw through it transparently.
 
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:46 pm

I'd like to introduce a term to this thread: Technology Readiness Level.

https://www.boeing.com/features/innovat ... ewman.page

The ideas/concepts I think Boeing, and the engine makers, would want to introduce in a new NSA are not quite ready, at this point, for a generational leap.

My suspicion is that Boeing would love to go from 40 percent to 60+ percent of the narrowbody market (and finally wind down 737 sales/production), but to do so some technologies are either not mature enough or not accessible (GTF for GE). The Aurora acquisition, folding wings, new engines, carbon mfg advances, and all the rest will have to be ready for a real/substantial step forward next. It all has to be able to traverse the "valley of death."
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:45 am

morrisond wrote:
keesje wrote:
Geoff1947 wrote:
Help me please. If it doesn’t make sense to spend gazillions on an all new NSA how does it make sense to spend gazillions on an all new NMA ?

Thanks

Geoff


Good question. I'm sure Boeing has been asking themselves, explaining the 6-7 yrs MoM / NMA decision process so far. And then, there are a3rd and 4th option. Do nothing, or try to combine NMA & NSA as much as marketable.

I think doing nothing would lead to significant market share loss in the 100-250 seat segment in the next decade. Maybe not a healthy plan.
The 4th option combining NSA and NMA is becoming more likely IMO. Further good 787-8 upgrades could make it even more feasible.

Image

At least it would kick the Airbus folks out of their current comfort zone and get creative again.


Hi Keesje - It will be good to get back to debating you on these threads vs the Endless MAX threads.

Does this mean you think NSA/NMA is 7W or are you sticking with Wide Single Aisle for both - common Cockpit/Cross Section - different wing/wingbox/gear/tail?

Personally I think the Partnership with Embraer spawns E195 offshoots to take over the 737-7 space - however for it to really work I think Boeing and Embraer do a new 5W cleansheet to take on this market and the C-Series with Common Cockpit and Systems with NMA/NSA/787.

One of the big reasons I like 7W for NMA/NSA is the ability to do a nice 2x2x2 Domestic Business class in the front or 1x1x1 Sleepers for NMA TATL Length missions.

Given the premium seats are in general the profit on most flights - the more of these per meter of fuselage the better.

This led me to the Eureka moment when I saw Delta go 2x2 Domestic Business on the C-Series which is a big advantage over an 3x3 Single Aisle than can only take 2x2 Domestic Business class as well - however you have to carry around all that extra structure to support the 3x3 Y seats on a single aisle.

Keep it light (Boeing/Embraer 5W) and under 3,000nm range and then you have NSA/NMA for missions that require more capacity or range.

Common type rating so Airlines like Southwest can use all three interchangeably.


I think the market is way to competitive to do 7 abreast in typical <220 seat, <1500NM environments. You can however develop a roomy 3-3 into something usefull>4000NM, >220 passengers. The bulk of the market is NB, short <1500NM) range. Trying to approach that with a SUV style small WB is IMO not a good idea. I'm sure Boeing will reach the same conclusion. It's no rocket science..

texl1649 wrote:
I'd like to introduce a term to this thread: Technology Readiness Level.

https://www.boeing.com/features/innovat ... ewman.page

The ideas/concepts I think Boeing, and the engine makers, would want to introduce in a new NSA are not quite ready, at this point, for a generational leap.

My suspicion is that Boeing would love to go from 40 percent to 60+ percent of the narrowbody market (and finally wind down 737 sales/production), but to do so some technologies are either not mature enough or not accessible (GTF for GE). The Aurora acquisition, folding wings, new engines, carbon mfg advances, and all the rest will have to be ready for a real/substantial step forward next. It all has to be able to traverse the "valley of death."


If we look at TRL's, I see tons of technology having matured for 737 replacement in 2026.

Much of the 737 technology is sixties, a lot is nineties. On almost all relevant areas the 7878 and 777X added valuable technology 20-40 years ahead of what the 737 carries. The grandfathering of much of the design had economical advantages, technologically it pulled the brakes on the 737.

Traditionally Boeing praises their current portfolio and sees no reason to improve. Share holder value all over. Until they have something new. Then there is the 180, and awesome innovation is the way forward to leapfrog the competition and set a new industry standard. After decades you start to recognize the pattern. :old:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Amiga500
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:51 am

Nope. Boeing are in the MAX boat and it'd be dangerous for them to try and swim back to shore to start a new program

Now, if for some extremely unlikely reason, the authorities torpedo re-certification of MAX, then they've no choice but to swim back to shore and start a new program.

Otherwise (and much more realistically), there will be no 180-200 seat single aisle replacement from Boeing in the next 10 years.

Now, will they go with a big single aisle for the MoM? Which can then gradually be iterated down to <200 seats with new wing/landing gear/etc?

It is what I would do - my starting point would look very similar to an upwinged version of the conceptual MC-21-400.
 
texl1649
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:02 pm

I'll also note that the 787 isn't that much more efficient than the A330NEO, but it has been enough to do quite well vs. the latter in orders over the past 4 years. Similarly, Boeing has to have a coherent product portfolio strategy moving forward, with tech/platforms that can't be easily flanked by a derivative Airbus product.

So, I regrettably admit I think a handful of airlines, including SWA, LH, BA, AA, UA and DL have tremendous leverage on Boeing's pending decisions in these spaces. I regret it only because I think it is a relatively small proportion of global orders over the next 40 years.

SWA, in particular, Boeing wants to transition into three products from one; NMA, NSA, and E2. DL wants to deliver value through services to other NMA customers, ditto for LH etc. NMA will seem, initially, to be a not huge play, with an aggressive timeline, and low cost point if recent (civil/military) program history is any indicator.

If the NSA is to be sized larger as expected (I agree with Keesje on that part), what is Boeing to do with the pending SWA need to order to replace 700's in/around the 2022-2025 time frame? They built the NG and MAX after all basically according to SWA's wishes.
 
texl1649
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:29 pm

The TATL is one of the two primary markets for the NMA. If volume of travelers/flights is going up as much as predicted over the next decade, it will have to open to larger aircraft, not just MAX/NEO narrow bodies. The increase would also likely mean the net cargo required per flight will also not be static or growing.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:46 pm

Or the other way to think about is they are a combined program.

797-7 (NSA-7), 797-8 (NSA-8), 797-8ER(NMA-8), 797-9(NSA-9), 797-9ER (NMA-9), 797-10 (NSA-10), 797-10ER (NMA-10)

Seat Capacities (Single Class in 2x3x2 Configuration)

797-7 -200 a little bigger than 738/A320 to maximum use of 4 flight crew
797-8(ER) -230 about A321LR/XLR Capacity
797-9(ER) - 260/270 ish
797-10(ER) - 300-310

There is nothing saying that the ER Can't signify different Engines/GEar/Wing/Wingbox/Tail. That's not far off of Boeing 777-300 vs 300ER (although I know both have basically the same wing with ER extended with different tips and probably differences internal) - this would have bigger differences - but the aircraft would be from the same family.

Although in this case maybe the ER versions come first for production and timing reasons - not wanting to curtail the MAX too soon.

However if Boeing does take this approach from an engineering standpoint it may be easier to design the NON-ER's first as it would probably be easier to add strength to make it into an ER versus trying to take weight out of the ER.

But if you are doing custom Wing/Wingbox/Tail/Gear that isn't such a big deal. The Nose should basically be the same and you might just need some more wraps of carbon on the barrels of the ER versions to take the weight of the bigger structure/higher fuel loads.
 
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:56 am

200 seats single class in 7 abreast makes for a very chubby plane, not good for the efficiency. And I believe that up to 240 seats in single class the single aisle design is hard to beat.

But that market segment is covered well by the 737MAX, the gap is above, with more capacity and more range and that is where the 797 will change the market. Boeing will have another big win on their hands.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:10 am

in 2009 -2010 Boeing was preparing to launch a 737 replacement, the "NSA".

Image
http://www.b737.org.uk/737nsa.htm

Lots of viable, TRL>6 features were included. And now we are a decade down the road.

Boeings CEO in 2014 ,on the development of a 737 replacement:

“It will be slightly bigger, there will be new engines. The current look of the planes (shape) won’t change dramatically,” McNerney said.

Chinese planemaker COMAC is developing the C919 jet to compete with the 737 and the Airbus (AIR.PA) A320. The jet has been delayed until end-2015.

Other competitors include Russia’s MS-21 and the slightly smaller Bombardier (BBDb.TO) CSeries from Canada.

McNerney said an all-new 737 MAX replacement was needed “because the new entrants would do something like MAX.”

Boeing has nearly 100 years of aircraft experience and “we cannot give up that advantage because competing on costs alone would be difficult,” he said. “Innovation is the only answer, there’s no easy way around.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... 7320141105[/url]
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:24 am

keesje wrote:
in 2009 -2010 Boeing was preparing to launch a 737 replacement, the "NSA".

Image
http://www.b737.org.uk/737nsa.htm

Lots of viable, TRL>6 features were included. And now we are a decade down the road.

Boeings CEO in 2014 ,on the development of a 737 replacement:

“It will be slightly bigger, there will be new engines. The current look of the planes (shape) won’t change dramatically,” McNerney said.

Chinese planemaker COMAC is developing the C919 jet to compete with the 737 and the Airbus (AIR.PA) A320. The jet has been delayed until end-2015.

Other competitors include Russia’s MS-21 and the slightly smaller Bombardier (BBDb.TO) CSeries from Canada.

McNerney said an all-new 737 MAX replacement was needed “because the new entrants would do something like MAX.”

Boeing has nearly 100 years of aircraft experience and “we cannot give up that advantage because competing on costs alone would be difficult,” he said. “Innovation is the only answer, there’s no easy way around.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... 7320141105[/url]



So why would an Oval 7W not be innovative and it wouldn't be that chubby. It would give Boeing a big advantage in terms of perceived comfort for passengers and more premium seating - along with with more hold capacity (Potentially wider containers or interoperability with LD3-45's - with a frontal area penalty less than the difference of A320 over 737 per seat - and on premium seats a big benefit as you could go 2x2x2 in the front.

Take an 738 - which you would have to add 2-3 rows to to get to 200 passenger single class normal pitches - not 200 passengers with a minuscule seat pitch.

At 6 W that would be 33-35 rows - depending on seat arrangements. Call it 33 or 198 seats of full rows. At 7W it would be about 28-29 - maybe 2-3 rows less than an 738 and not that far off an A320.

Then picture the Oval cross section at somewhere between 0 and 12 inches taller than an A320 - and then you are sitting inside a 737 and they push the sidewalls out 20" on each side while maintaining the height of the 320 or slightly higher.

It really wouldn't be that stubby and (unless you consider an A320 an inefficient length) and from the a frontal area standpoint on a per seat basis at no real disadvantage and possibly and advantage if you consider premium seats.
 
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:34 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
..
I'm under the impression, the NMA might be quietly shrinking on the drawingboards.

:arrow: Airlines are not stumbling over each other commiting to a 7 abreast 5000 Nm WB at NB cost levels

.


You can’t officially commit to an airplane that isn’t launched, but a whole lot of airlines have expressed interest in the proposed NMA

Air Canada

In the context of Air Canada’s strategy to take some traffic out of the USA and connect via its international hubs, an aircraft of the NMA size could work for the Canadian carrier, says Ravinescu.
“That size of aircraft could fill in well with some of the cities that have the aspirations to connect international flights without connecting to a hub.”


https://leehamnews.com/2018/04/16/air-c ... d-for-nma/

Delta

Delta Air Lines and Boeing have discussed the possibility of the carrier launching the proposed New Mid-market Airplane (NMA), as Delta seeks a replacement for more than 100 ageing mid-market aircraft.

"We've had discussions with Boeing about being a potential launch customer," says Ed Bastian, chief executive of Delta, at the National Press Club in Washington DC today.



https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... an-449780/

United

United Airlines is considering the Airbus A330-800neo and Boeing New Mid-market Airplane (NMA) among options to replace its fleet of aging Boeing 757s and 767s.

The Chicago-based carrier is looking at replacements for its 77 757-200 and -300s, and 51 767-300ERs in the near term, a presentation by senior vice-president of finance, procurement and treasurer Gerry Laderman on 27 February shows.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-446322/

American

The carrier’s senior vice-president of integrated operations David Seymour says American’s 787 delivery timeline keeps an NMA order on the table, though he stresses American knows little about the NMA’s ultimate production timetable or final specification.

Still, Seymour says the NMA could perform well in the carrier’s network and could replace the same aircraft types as the 787.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... er-447664/

Copa

Copa Airlines is considering Boeing's planned New Mid-market Airplane (NMA), which it says could potentially provide additional capacity on its longest routes, chief executive Pedro Heilbron tells FlightGlobal.

The Panamanian carrier's interest in the NMA is significant, given that it has steadfastly stuck to a narrowbody fleet all this while. However, Heilbron says a more cost-efficient widebody could convince Copa to change its mind.

"The existing widebodies make no sense," he tells FlightGlobal ahead of the US Chamber of Commerce aviation summit in Washington DC.

"But the NMA might make sense for Copa, if it gives us more capacity and range in what we hope will be a much less expensive and easier to operate aircraft compared to the 787 or A330."


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... eo-446363/

Qantas

“Whether you’re running out of slots or whether you’re just looking to optimise capacity for the peak levels of demand... an airplane that has the flexibility to carry 20 to 30 per cent more people at the right time is going to be compelling," Mr Hulst said on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association's AMG in Sydney last week.

"Also, with the range capability to fly as far as somewhere like Japan, into and beyond places like Singapore, and secondary markets in South East Asia, it becomes a really compelling opportunity."


https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 4zkto.html

Norwegian

Norwegian is "very interested" in Boeing's proposed New Midsize Airplane design, says chief executive Bjorn Kjos.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... eo-438904/

Thomas Cook

Thomas Cook is 'definitely interested' in Boeing's potential 797 jet

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... debus.html

Air Astana

“It was a glimmer of an idea in Singapore. We now understand it’s more than just a glimmer of an idea,” Mr Foster says. “It is being very seriously debated with dates, times and production facilities now being talked about and thought about internally at Boeing. We love it. It would be brilliant for us.”

https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... ion-174725

I’m certain there are plenty more articles in non English publications.

keesje wrote:

Not offering a big, quiet, geared fan container carrying NB might not be the bold market proposition the Boeing sales teams are looking for, moving forward from 2025. :scratchchin:

The MAX backlog might prove rock solid during a next recession. Or not, unidentified customers, leasing companies and large legacy's prove flexible. They don't get "punished" by Airbus and Boeing when they change their plans. Investing when margin starts hurting, might be years too late, you are struggling for 5-7 years..
.


The 737 is now certified for cargo containers

Image


That cargo container for the 737 does not use the same base as the LD3 containers, the A320 series does. That makes a big difference.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 12:22 pm

rbavfan wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
..
I'm under the impression, the NMA might be quietly shrinking on the drawingboards.

:arrow: Airlines are not stumbling over each other commiting to a 7 abreast 5000 Nm WB at NB cost levels

.


You can’t officially commit to an airplane that isn’t launched, but a whole lot of airlines have expressed interest in the proposed NMA

Air Canada

In the context of Air Canada’s strategy to take some traffic out of the USA and connect via its international hubs, an aircraft of the NMA size could work for the Canadian carrier, says Ravinescu.
“That size of aircraft could fill in well with some of the cities that have the aspirations to connect international flights without connecting to a hub.”


https://leehamnews.com/2018/04/16/air-c ... d-for-nma/

Delta

Delta Air Lines and Boeing have discussed the possibility of the carrier launching the proposed New Mid-market Airplane (NMA), as Delta seeks a replacement for more than 100 ageing mid-market aircraft.

"We've had discussions with Boeing about being a potential launch customer," says Ed Bastian, chief executive of Delta, at the National Press Club in Washington DC today.



https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... an-449780/

United

United Airlines is considering the Airbus A330-800neo and Boeing New Mid-market Airplane (NMA) among options to replace its fleet of aging Boeing 757s and 767s.

The Chicago-based carrier is looking at replacements for its 77 757-200 and -300s, and 51 767-300ERs in the near term, a presentation by senior vice-president of finance, procurement and treasurer Gerry Laderman on 27 February shows.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-446322/

American

The carrier’s senior vice-president of integrated operations David Seymour says American’s 787 delivery timeline keeps an NMA order on the table, though he stresses American knows little about the NMA’s ultimate production timetable or final specification.

Still, Seymour says the NMA could perform well in the carrier’s network and could replace the same aircraft types as the 787.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... er-447664/

Copa

Copa Airlines is considering Boeing's planned New Mid-market Airplane (NMA), which it says could potentially provide additional capacity on its longest routes, chief executive Pedro Heilbron tells FlightGlobal.

The Panamanian carrier's interest in the NMA is significant, given that it has steadfastly stuck to a narrowbody fleet all this while. However, Heilbron says a more cost-efficient widebody could convince Copa to change its mind.

"The existing widebodies make no sense," he tells FlightGlobal ahead of the US Chamber of Commerce aviation summit in Washington DC.

"But the NMA might make sense for Copa, if it gives us more capacity and range in what we hope will be a much less expensive and easier to operate aircraft compared to the 787 or A330."


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... eo-446363/

Qantas

“Whether you’re running out of slots or whether you’re just looking to optimise capacity for the peak levels of demand... an airplane that has the flexibility to carry 20 to 30 per cent more people at the right time is going to be compelling," Mr Hulst said on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association's AMG in Sydney last week.

"Also, with the range capability to fly as far as somewhere like Japan, into and beyond places like Singapore, and secondary markets in South East Asia, it becomes a really compelling opportunity."


https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 4zkto.html

Norwegian

Norwegian is "very interested" in Boeing's proposed New Midsize Airplane design, says chief executive Bjorn Kjos.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... eo-438904/

Thomas Cook

Thomas Cook is 'definitely interested' in Boeing's potential 797 jet

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... debus.html

Air Astana

“It was a glimmer of an idea in Singapore. We now understand it’s more than just a glimmer of an idea,” Mr Foster says. “It is being very seriously debated with dates, times and production facilities now being talked about and thought about internally at Boeing. We love it. It would be brilliant for us.”

https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... ion-174725

I’m certain there are plenty more articles in non English publications.

keesje wrote:

Not offering a big, quiet, geared fan container carrying NB might not be the bold market proposition the Boeing sales teams are looking for, moving forward from 2025. :scratchchin:

The MAX backlog might prove rock solid during a next recession. Or not, unidentified customers, leasing companies and large legacy's prove flexible. They don't get "punished" by Airbus and Boeing when they change their plans. Investing when margin starts hurting, might be years too late, you are struggling for 5-7 years..
.


The 737 is now certified for cargo containers

Image


That cargo container for the 737 does not use the same base as the LD3 containers, the A320 series does. That makes a big difference.


All MoM, NMA, NSA concepts that I have seen, oval and not, have a cargo space neatly fitting the LD3-45 (45 inch high) industry standard. Ignoring that would be perceived as extremely stubborn, so apparently Boeing is reasonable / market smart here.

If I had any influence at Boeing, I would focus on a 150-200 seat <2000NM deign, that beats NEO, MAX and A220 by a margin on fuel efficiency, flexibility, maintainability / future upgradability. A killer, a real lean quiet aicraft that will never be able do TATL or Transcon or carry any significant cargo in any form. Because it's so optimized, lean, there's no growth margin left.

Such a strategy is only possible if you cover >200 seats > 2000NM in a different equally optimized way too. With as much commonality as possible. That platform would be fully optimized for 4000NM+ flights with ~250 passengers. But not including 5500NM with 300 passengers too. That would compromise it's design efficiency too much around it's target segment. Above 4500NM is where WB's reign already.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
morrisond
Posts: 2874
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:14 pm

keesje wrote:
rbavfan wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:

You can’t officially commit to an airplane that isn’t launched, but a whole lot of airlines have expressed interest in the proposed NMA

Air Canada

In the context of Air Canada’s strategy to take some traffic out of the USA and connect via its international hubs, an aircraft of the NMA size could work for the Canadian carrier, says Ravinescu.
“That size of aircraft could fill in well with some of the cities that have the aspirations to connect international flights without connecting to a hub.”


https://leehamnews.com/2018/04/16/air-c ... d-for-nma/

Delta

Delta Air Lines and Boeing have discussed the possibility of the carrier launching the proposed New Mid-market Airplane (NMA), as Delta seeks a replacement for more than 100 ageing mid-market aircraft.

"We've had discussions with Boeing about being a potential launch customer," says Ed Bastian, chief executive of Delta, at the National Press Club in Washington DC today.



https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... an-449780/

United

United Airlines is considering the Airbus A330-800neo and Boeing New Mid-market Airplane (NMA) among options to replace its fleet of aging Boeing 757s and 767s.

The Chicago-based carrier is looking at replacements for its 77 757-200 and -300s, and 51 767-300ERs in the near term, a presentation by senior vice-president of finance, procurement and treasurer Gerry Laderman on 27 February shows.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-446322/

American

The carrier’s senior vice-president of integrated operations David Seymour says American’s 787 delivery timeline keeps an NMA order on the table, though he stresses American knows little about the NMA’s ultimate production timetable or final specification.

Still, Seymour says the NMA could perform well in the carrier’s network and could replace the same aircraft types as the 787.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... er-447664/

Copa

Copa Airlines is considering Boeing's planned New Mid-market Airplane (NMA), which it says could potentially provide additional capacity on its longest routes, chief executive Pedro Heilbron tells FlightGlobal.

The Panamanian carrier's interest in the NMA is significant, given that it has steadfastly stuck to a narrowbody fleet all this while. However, Heilbron says a more cost-efficient widebody could convince Copa to change its mind.

"The existing widebodies make no sense," he tells FlightGlobal ahead of the US Chamber of Commerce aviation summit in Washington DC.

"But the NMA might make sense for Copa, if it gives us more capacity and range in what we hope will be a much less expensive and easier to operate aircraft compared to the 787 or A330."


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... eo-446363/

Qantas

“Whether you’re running out of slots or whether you’re just looking to optimise capacity for the peak levels of demand... an airplane that has the flexibility to carry 20 to 30 per cent more people at the right time is going to be compelling," Mr Hulst said on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association's AMG in Sydney last week.

"Also, with the range capability to fly as far as somewhere like Japan, into and beyond places like Singapore, and secondary markets in South East Asia, it becomes a really compelling opportunity."


https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 4zkto.html

Norwegian

Norwegian is "very interested" in Boeing's proposed New Midsize Airplane design, says chief executive Bjorn Kjos.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... eo-438904/

Thomas Cook

Thomas Cook is 'definitely interested' in Boeing's potential 797 jet

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... debus.html

Air Astana

“It was a glimmer of an idea in Singapore. We now understand it’s more than just a glimmer of an idea,” Mr Foster says. “It is being very seriously debated with dates, times and production facilities now being talked about and thought about internally at Boeing. We love it. It would be brilliant for us.”

https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... ion-174725

I’m certain there are plenty more articles in non English publications.



The 737 is now certified for cargo containers

Image


That cargo container for the 737 does not use the same base as the LD3 containers, the A320 series does. That makes a big difference.


All MoM, NMA, NSA concepts that I have seen, oval and not, have a cargo space neatly fitting the LD3-45 (45 inch high) industry standard. Ignoring that would be perceived as extremely stubborn, so apparently Boeing is reasonable / market smart here.

If I had any influence at Boeing, I would focus on a 150-200 seat <2000NM deign, that beats NEO, MAX and A220 by a margin on fuel efficiency, flexibility, maintainability / future upgradability. A killer, a real lean quiet aicraft that will never be able do TATL or Transcon or carry any significant cargo in any form. Because it's so optimized, lean, there's no growth margin left.

Such a strategy is only possible if you cover >200 seats > 2000NM in a different equally optimized way too. With as much commonality as possible. That platform would be fully optimized for 4000NM+ flights with ~250 passengers. But not including 5500NM with 300 passengers too. That would compromise it's design efficiency too much around it's target segment. Above 4500NM is where WB's reign already.

Image


That would definitely be one way to do it - I think we both agree that NMA/NSA should basically be a combined program - the Base and then the ER versions with bigger engines/wing/wingbox/tail/gear - it's just whether or not it's 6W or 7W.

Based on all the rumors that NMA is twin aisle - I think it's the 7W option - but who knows maybe Boeing wants to do 6W and give up the layout flexibility of 7W in the space so they are no different than A320/C919 or MC21.

I don't think MC21 will ever be much of a threat but I can see C919 being a big problem for both A & B by the time NSA would be available at least in landing new orders if it proves reliable. A&B will never be able to compete on price - they will have to beat COMAC on features.
 
Weatherwatcher1
Posts: 564
Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:14 pm

keesje wrote:
If I had any influence at Boeing, I would focus on a 150-200 seat <2000NM deign, that beats NEO, MAX and A220 by a margin on fuel efficiency, flexibility, maintainability / future upgradability. A killer, a real lean quiet aicraft that will never be able do TATL or Transcon or carry any significant cargo in any form. Because it's so optimized, lean, there's no growth margin left.


That sounds like the MD90 from the 1990s or a stretched A220. A new airplane that can Never do a US transcon would be quite a risk. Going up head to head against the A220 also seems a bit odd. In this market segment there is a trade off between operational flexibility and fuel efficiency, and I question if such a segment has room for multiple competitors.
 
DeanBNE
Posts: 256
Joined: Tue Jan 26, 2016 12:47 pm

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:47 pm

Much of this conversation seems to ignore the crisis the 737 programme is in. "737" is now poison. The sooner Boeing comes up with something BRAND NEW the sooner they can stem their loses. Until then the A320 family will become more and more dominant.

Base something that sits between the a320 and 321 gap and go from there. Shrink it. Stretch it.

The moment the 2nd 737 plunged into the ground was the moment "mom", "nsa", "nma" hypotheticals vanished

Cheers
 
Thunderbolt500
Posts: 139
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:01 pm

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:16 pm

If you trust boeing after issues with max
 
Ziyulu
Posts: 989
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:35 am

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:38 pm

I've a feeling if this new aircraft is 7 abreast, it will be narrower than a 767, so we will still be squished in like a 3-3-3 787 or 3-4-3 777.
 
User avatar
keesje
Topic Author
Posts: 14118
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:02 pm

I'm not convinced of 2-3-2. It just adds a lot of weight.

Prove it will weigh more or less is impossible, as long as there is no design. But writing is on the wall & even Boeing doesn't deny (NMA OEW 70t).

The original 767, A310 and 757 were developed in the same time frame, using the same materials, engines, systems. All having a seat capacity of ~265 seats, the 757-300 weighs 15t / 20% less. An OEW of ~65t versus ~80t. That doesn't tell the complete story, but too much to ignore / dismiss.

Image

Image

On short- medium flights, competing with A321s (10-15t lighter than 757..), going for a 2-3-2 widebody doesn't sound like a very logical choice if weight & fuel burn means anything in aviation..
Last edited by keesje on Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2645
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:06 pm

morrisond wrote:
I don't think MC21 will ever be much of a threat but I can see C919 being a big problem


Ironic given its by a distance the most advanced airframe.

The Russians really needed to get their in service support for the superjet right. Now, no one is gonna touch MS-21 for years.
 
morrisond
Posts: 2874
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 6:45 pm

keesje wrote:
I'm not convinced of 2-3-2. It just adds a lot of weight.

Prove it will weigh more or less is impossible, as long as there is no design. But writing is on the wall & even Boeing doesn't deny (NMA OEW 70t).

The original 767, A310 and 757 were developed in the same time frame, using the same materials, engines, systems. All having a seat capacity of ~265 seats, the 757-300 weighs 15t / 20% less. An OEW of ~65t versus ~80t. That doesn't tell the complete story, but too much to ignore / dismiss.

Image

Image

On short- medium flights, competing with A321s (10-15t lighter than 757..), going for a 2-3-2 widebody doesn't sound like a very logical choice if weight & fuel burn means anything in aviation..


Yes - Impossible to prove until a design is seen - however you just have to think small - the Fuselage Height could be the same as A320 (so it Fits LD3-45's) - but it probably needs to be a little higher to account for the extra overhead bin space - but we are not talking 2-3' - Good design may allow something like 8-12".

It's going to be shorter for the same passenger capacity (16.7%). Assuming B737 sardine comfort you just need to add enough extra width over a 737 to fit that extra aisle - seat and two armrests - it could be less than 190" wide.

Then you also have more width for things like Lav's and Galleys as well - so those can be shorter - meaning shorter plane again - saving weight. On a per seat basis assuming all Y it could be very competitive and if it's premium heavy actually could be better.

Heavier - maybe - a lot heavier - I doubt it.
 
User avatar
keesje
Topic Author
Posts: 14118
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:06 pm

Narrow WB fuselage has been looked at for decades.
It didn't get usefull applucation for short/ medium haul.

Image

Also on 7J7.

Image

An oval fuselage would be heavier than a circular one of the same width, to compensate bending moments specially around window height.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
morrisond
Posts: 2874
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:12 pm

keesje wrote:
Narrow WB fuselage has been looked at for decades.
It didn't get usefull applucation for short/ medium haul.

Image

Also on 7J7.

Image

An oval fuselage would be heavier than a circular one of the same width, to compensate bending moments specially around window height.


If it's Oval.

As has been reported - it's Ovalish - supposedly something like half a circle on top with something like 1/4-1/3 of a bigger diameter circle on the bottom so you don't put the floor in compression.

The width of that 7J7 cross section looks just about right with 17" 2x3x2 seats. Just take a bunch of height out of it 18-24".
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