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keesje
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Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:07 pm

JibberJim wrote:
texl1649 wrote:
Ideally, the engines move to the back, as that would also let the gear be lower and easier access to everything. In any case, there’s no new engine in this class that is even close to being ready for a new program to get into the air before 2025.


How do you put engines at the back and manage to prevent uncontained failure of one of the engines not taking out the other?


You have a point there. When this concept was created 15 yrs ago, most studies had 2-3 high BOR fans, CROR's at the back. Since then authorities took a safe road, stating a twin engines like confuguration should be certified as single engine because a uncontained failure could take out the other engine. With DC9 ect. There is a lot of structure between the two hp turbines..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
texl1649
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Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:38 am

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:33 pm

A solid rudder (or canted tail planes) with some reinforcement between two aft mounted engines (ducted or not, but at least between the high pressure sections) would again afford great savings in noise/other factors (and likely could be more protective vs. an uncontained failure than the back end of the DC9's, as perhaps some unfortunate flight attendants might testify today, could they), though the original reason Sutter chose the wings for the then-radical 737 was to avoid nose up instabilities/stalls.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:59 pm

ewt340 wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think we should leave behind some popular assumptions:
:splat: The MAX backlog is solid,
:splat: Boeing sells thousands of additional MAX aircraft filling slots up to 2030,
:splat: Airbus won't launch A220-500 /A320Plus
:splat: People and airlines forget the MAX drama easily
:splat: a twin aisle doing 300 passengers 5000NM can beat the A321 1000NM also.

I think the situation changed. Airline patience & financial reserves are limitted. Likely Boeing has to change it's strategy.

Taxi645, not a bad idea.


Why is that?


Well A220-500 and A320neoPlus sounds enticing but A220 production line hasn't mature to the point where they could produce the aircraft fast enough. A220-500 would kill A320neo.

Airbus would milk the sh*t out of A320neo until nobody wants it no more and then replace it with A220-500 in the future to combat Boeing NSA at lower range of the product.

The only thing I would contested about keesje's comment is the situation with MAX. Nobody gonna forget that one. Because unlike B787, there is high profile accidents with the MAX and the fact that the problem with the MAX are way worse than B787 back in the day with their battery.

Also B797 would definetly give A321XLR run for its money. But it wouldn't beat A321XLR prices and commonality.


I think a B797 can give A321XLR a run for its money, but Boeing would have scale down and lighten up its NMA. Forget WB at NB costs.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Taxi645
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:29 pm

https://aviationnews.online/2019/08/14/ ... -analysts/

Speaking to analysts who were privy to the Boeing briefing a few months ago, they tell me that Boeing estimated then it was 65% likely it would go ahead. Airlines like United were especially keen, so were others, like Qatar.

Now those very same analysts are saying – publicly – that it’s less than 50-50 it will happen. Boeing officially are trying to say it will still be airborne by 2025-26, but most think that’s unlikely and see it as 2027 if it goes ahead. With a $15-20 billion development price tag, that sort of commitment is not where the company is right now.



I don't know which analysts this were, but I haven't heard the less than 50-50 quote before. It's still summer...
Innovation is seeing opportunity before obstacle.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:39 pm

Airlines are starting to take serious damage over 737 MAX delays, weakened competitive strength due to grounded (MAX), cargo incapable (MAX - NEO), range restricted (737-10 - A321XLR), engine choice limited (No GTF options) or heavier (737-7 - A223) fleet commitments.

https://www.businessinsider.nl/boeing-7 ... =true&r=US
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... ther-jets/

Airlines might start changing their approach. Preferring a highly competitive new Boeing narrow body from 2027 over the MAX. Contractual they now have a renewed negotiating position with Boeing.

They (big 737 customers / operators) know if they publicly blink, a chain reaction might follow, get out of control, so they look brave. Regular discussions with Boeing at high level take place. Penalties, claims, long term strategies & investment are on the table.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
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