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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:58 pm

ewt340 wrote:
That's a big fat LIE.

A320neo have 4,191 orders as of December 31st, 2018.
B737MAX8 have 2,614 orders as of January 31st, 2019.


Funny how you are perfectly happy to credit MAX orders where the variant is not publicly specified to the 8 when you are trying to slag the 10, but then you credit those to the 9 or 10 when you are trying to slag the 8.

For the record, both aircraft families have obtained over 5,000 firm orders since the MAX launch in 2011 (the exact numbers are around 5400 for the neo and 5000 for the MAX), but A320neo family orders have been much more biased toward the A321neo. Exact numbers are hard to pin down because Boeing doesn't report all variants but if you look at the operators who have actually ordered and their likely needs it seems very clear that the MAX 8 has outsold the A320neo by a significant margin since 2011. If I had to make an informed guess, I'd guess that 3800 or so of those 5000 are for the 8.

Of course the A321neo has outsold the MAX 9/10 combined during that time by around 2 to 1, and that is why you hear so much about the 737 being doomed.
Last edited by seabosdca on Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:06 pm

Folks, there is a difference in family orders.
NEO: 6,526
A319 55
A320: 4,191
A321:. 2,280

Very well done on the A321.

MAX: 5,011
-7:. 61
-8: 2,614
-9: 242
-10: 499
Unknown (any of above): 1588

Boeing allows late selection of size. Airbus has one factory setup only for the A320, so it is more important they schedule between final assembly lines.

Boeing hasn't done as well on the -9/-10.
641 vs. 2,281 for A321. To me the A321 had an early lead.

The NMA will go after the A321 from above for a similar market. By only having a little more range and forfeiting cargo, the NMA has a market.

I cannot see launching a new narrowbody for 2025:EIS. I can for 2030.

I personally would go for the weak market: 788 and A339. Something substantially cheaper per flight with many sacrifices to achieve that (reduced range, reduced cargo).

Everything is lined up for a widebody announcement at Paris. The question is how many orders. That and which engines.

Lightsaber
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QXAS
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:30 pm

N14AZ wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
The MAX 8 has handily outsold the A320neo since it became available


That's a big fat LIE.

A320neo have 4,191 orders as of December 31st, 2018.
B737MAX8 have 2,614 orders as of January 31st, 2019.

The key words here are „since it became available“, referring to the fact that the NEO had a head start. I don’t know the exact figures though...

In addition the figure of 2614 being used here is wildly inaccurate. Boeing doesn’t differentiate between models for many orders, however the 8 is the baseline model, so if the model isn’t noted, -8 is the most likely. There are 1,588 of these unknown orders. That leads us to this, if the 2,614 figure for known orders is correct, then we can assume that the 1,588 figure is also correct. That makes up to 4,202 MAX 8 orders. But let’s assume that the number 1,588 is proportioned similarly to the proportions of the “known” MAX order book sans -7. That calculation leads to 3,851 MAX 8 aircraft on order. Now we’re going to look at the A320NEO order book. Of the 4,191 airplanes ordered, 1038 were ordered prior to the MAX launch. This means 3,153 have been ordered since. Since the MAX 8 orderbook is unknown the best guess we have is that the unknown orders are proportionate to the known orders which leads us to about 3,851 MAX 8 orders compared to 3,153 A320NEO orders since MAX 8 Launch.
So while it cannot be confirmed which has sold better than the other since MAX 8 launched, it is more likely that the MAX 8 is edging out the 320NEO, than the 320NEO edging out MAX 8.
I am NOT an employee of any airline or manufacturer. I speak for myself, not on the behalf of any company.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:40 am

ewt340 wrote:
You think Boeing became the most successful company by staying still and let their biggest competitors work on new next gen aircraft?
B787 is the proof for Boeing success. They didn't re-engine B777-200ER in mid 2000. They make a new clean sheet aircraft to gain profits and market shares, and it paid off in a big way.

Also, you don't wake up one day and launch a new aircraft, the research could take decades. I don't think Boeing is dumb enough to ignore it.

You still remember when Boeing is leader in the narrow-body market? Yeah, not anymore with the NEO and MAX. More than 1,500 differences in orders. And everybody get offended by me. Weird....

I can you see you've been here seven years so I would think you would know that people would find it offensive to suggest a mainline product with record orders, record backlog, record production rate and from (what we can tell) record profits is dying.

I have to think MAX is filling if not exceeding all expectations Boeing had for it from the point of view they care the most on: return on investment.

New clean sheet aircraft are not a guarantee of success, see A380 for what can go wrong.

I think successful companies are successful because they're good at picking their battles, not because they feel they have to have a new product in every market segment.

Airbus must feel the same way since they've been doing NEOs for more than a little while now (A340-500/600 were in essence neos, just like A320neo, A330neo, etc).

Boeing (and Airbus too) are struggling to figure out exactly when and how to do a new clean sheet narrow body. I think we can be sure both are doing all kinds of R&D in that direction. Yet I also think neither are going to pull the plug on their current generation products till the sales are clearly winding down. Given both have 5+ years backlog that clearly isn't happening yet.
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bigjku
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:13 am

Revelation wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
You think Boeing became the most successful company by staying still and let their biggest competitors work on new next gen aircraft?
B787 is the proof for Boeing success. They didn't re-engine B777-200ER in mid 2000. They make a new clean sheet aircraft to gain profits and market shares, and it paid off in a big way.

Also, you don't wake up one day and launch a new aircraft, the research could take decades. I don't think Boeing is dumb enough to ignore it.

You still remember when Boeing is leader in the narrow-body market? Yeah, not anymore with the NEO and MAX. More than 1,500 differences in orders. And everybody get offended by me. Weird....

I can you see you've been here seven years so I would think you would know that people would find it offensive to suggest a mainline product with record orders, record backlog, record production rate and from (what we can tell) record profits is dying.

I have to think MAX is filling if not exceeding all expectations Boeing had for it from the point of view they care the most on: return on investment.

New clean sheet aircraft are not a guarantee of success, see A380 for what can go wrong.

I think successful companies are successful because they're good at picking their battles, not because they feel they have to have a new product in every market segment.

Airbus must feel the same way since they've been doing NEOs for more than a little while now (A340-500/600 were in essence neos, just like A320neo, A330neo, etc).

Boeing (and Airbus too) are struggling to figure out exactly when and how to do a new clean sheet narrow body. I think we can be sure both are doing all kinds of R&D in that direction. Yet I also think neither are going to pull the plug on their current generation products till the sales are clearly winding down. Given both have 5+ years backlog that clearly isn't happening yet.


The bold here is critically important IMO to understanding what is going on here. The NEO thing happened and the A320 is better suited to it than the 737. It is what it is. So far Boeing has maintained touch on production rates and sales appear to be robust enough to keep things running. Picking a fight with the whole of the A320neo family with NSA right out the gate would have been a production nightmare. Not doing it was the right call.

So once you do the Max your question becomes how do we attack the A320neo family and properly position ourself going forward. The key, as far as I am concerned is NMA leading into NSA. Cap the top end of the market so that A321 and possibly A322 commonality doesn’t kill you and more importantly doesn’t force your NSA out of the A320neo/737-8 sweet spot. Then come in with NSA being optimized for the vast bulk of the routes out there and the A321/A322 will die anyway. It’s dependent on A320 volume anyway.

Both the A320 and 737 were not designed with these levels of mass production in mind. Everyone I have talked to at Boeing describes the 737 as “expensive” to build. They mean this relative to what they believe they can accomplish going forward.

The transition to whatever replaces the bulk of the 737/A320neo market is going to be the riskiest thing either Boeing or Airbus ever do. If Boeing really believes they have a step change in manufacturing process on hand that will let them crush their competition on a cost basis they are going to deploy this right into the sweet spot of the market fully optimized for it. NMA is the test run. NSA will sit firmly on the 737-8 market area.
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:04 am

seabosdca wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
That's a big fat LIE.

A320neo have 4,191 orders as of December 31st, 2018.
B737MAX8 have 2,614 orders as of January 31st, 2019.


Funny how you are perfectly happy to credit MAX orders where the variant is not publicly specified to the 8 when you are trying to slag the 10, but then you credit those to the 9 or 10 when you are trying to slag the 8.

For the record, both aircraft families have obtained over 5,000 firm orders since the MAX launch in 2011 (the exact numbers are around 5400 for the neo and 5000 for the MAX), but A320neo family orders have been much more biased toward the A321neo. Exact numbers are hard to pin down because Boeing doesn't report all variants but if you look at the operators who have actually ordered and their likely needs it seems very clear that the MAX 8 has outsold the A320neo by a significant margin since 2011. If I had to make an informed guess, I'd guess that 3800 or so of those 5000 are for the 8.

Of course the A321neo has outsold the MAX 9/10 combined during that time by around 2 to 1, and that is why you hear so much about the 737 being doomed.


Please provide valid proof on how B737MAX8 has outsold A320neo.

Currently A320neo order stands at 4,191 orders as of December 31st, 2018.
Known B737MAX8 + the MAX200 variants stands at 2,614 orders as of January 31st, 2019.

Unknown order for the MAX stands at 1,588 order. 1,043 are from Unidentified Customers. 545 are from Airlines or Leasing Companies. Unless you could show me a proof on how both of those 1,043 and 545 orders are for B737MAX8. Then A320neo outsold B737MAX8.
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:08 am

QXAS wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

That's a big fat LIE.

A320neo have 4,191 orders as of December 31st, 2018.
B737MAX8 have 2,614 orders as of January 31st, 2019.

The key words here are „since it became available“, referring to the fact that the NEO had a head start. I don’t know the exact figures though...

In addition the figure of 2614 being used here is wildly inaccurate. Boeing doesn’t differentiate between models for many orders, however the 8 is the baseline model, so if the model isn’t noted, -8 is the most likely. There are 1,588 of these unknown orders. That leads us to this, if the 2,614 figure for known orders is correct, then we can assume that the 1,588 figure is also correct. That makes up to 4,202 MAX 8 orders. But let’s assume that the number 1,588 is proportioned similarly to the proportions of the “known” MAX order book sans -7. That calculation leads to 3,851 MAX 8 aircraft on order. Now we’re going to look at the A320NEO order book. Of the 4,191 airplanes ordered, 1038 were ordered prior to the MAX launch. This means 3,153 have been ordered since. Since the MAX 8 orderbook is unknown the best guess we have is that the unknown orders are proportionate to the known orders which leads us to about 3,851 MAX 8 orders compared to 3,153 A320NEO orders since MAX 8 Launch.
So while it cannot be confirmed which has sold better than the other since MAX 8 launched, it is more likely that the MAX 8 is edging out the 320NEO, than the 320NEO edging out MAX 8.


So, nobody including Boeing could know if B737MAX8 outsold A320neo to this day because many airlines still haven't decide if they gonna order MAX8 yet because there's a big possibility that they could switched up the order to MAX7, MAX9 or MAX10?
So, A320neo sold more than B737MAX8 AND B737MAX200 combines?

This is the same with the nitpicking between A350 and B787. But in REAL life, the final number of the orders TODAY is the only important part.
MAX8 could be launched 10 years before A320neo. But if today the order numbers for A320neo is higher, then it is higher regardless of the time differences. These 2 plane are few years apart. They are not from different decades.
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:20 am

Revelation wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
You think Boeing became the most successful company by staying still and let their biggest competitors work on new next gen aircraft?
B787 is the proof for Boeing success. They didn't re-engine B777-200ER in mid 2000. They make a new clean sheet aircraft to gain profits and market shares, and it paid off in a big way.

Also, you don't wake up one day and launch a new aircraft, the research could take decades. I don't think Boeing is dumb enough to ignore it.

You still remember when Boeing is leader in the narrow-body market? Yeah, not anymore with the NEO and MAX. More than 1,500 differences in orders. And everybody get offended by me. Weird....

I can you see you've been here seven years so I would think you would know that people would find it offensive to suggest a mainline product with record orders, record backlog, record production rate and from (what we can tell) record profits is dying.

I have to think MAX is filling if not exceeding all expectations Boeing had for it from the point of view they care the most on: return on investment.

New clean sheet aircraft are not a guarantee of success, see A380 for what can go wrong.

I think successful companies are successful because they're good at picking their battles, not because they feel they have to have a new product in every market segment.

Airbus must feel the same way since they've been doing NEOs for more than a little while now (A340-500/600 were in essence neos, just like A320neo, A330neo, etc).

Boeing (and Airbus too) are struggling to figure out exactly when and how to do a new clean sheet narrow body. I think we can be sure both are doing all kinds of R&D in that direction. Yet I also think neither are going to pull the plug on their current generation products till the sales are clearly winding down. Given both have 5+ years backlog that clearly isn't happening yet.


1. I suggested Boeing to created B797 to replace B737-800 and B757-200 because these 2 are the most successful models from their families. Not because they are bad aircraft.
2. Saying that they gonna pull the plug on their current generation products after announcing the launch of their new replacement is unlogical. The development and testings + certifications, and the waiting list for the most advanced narrow-body on the market would make Airlines wait even longer to the point where most of them would ended up receiving their first aircraft few years after the aircraft actually enter into commercial services. This could be seen when A32Xneo, A330neo, B737MAX and B777X launch. Many airlines didn't just canceled their previous order. Some small conversion but they still took the last version even until the day the new updated model comes around.
3. A380 is the largest aircraft in the world with hefty price tag and a unproven vision predicted by Airbus. It DIDN'T replace older successful aircraft in the market. You are comparing Apple and Coca Cola here.
4. A350 and B787 is the proof on how successful a clean sheet design is. Not only they make money, it revolutionized the market and Airlines can't get enough of them. Both of them replacing and improving on the success of the previous famous aircraft like A330 and B777.

Also, I've been here for 7 years, but that doesn't change the fact that I should spew false informations just to keep people happy. The fact of the matter is, Boeing used to cornered the narrow-body market, and now Airbus will be in upcoming years. If Boeing didn't do something about it, they gonna be in bad position, especially since the narrowbody market seen some new players on the block.
Last edited by ewt340 on Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Bradin
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:23 am

Throwing my two cents in:

Nothing to see. Nothing to worry about.

Boeing has been making some incredibly sharp analysis, as well as watching the markets like a hawk They are properly taking into account customer feedback to develop the proper product any airline customer desires.

Boeing has done it for the 787/A350 marketspace. Then the 747-8/A380 marketspace.

Let's see if that happens with the 777x or the next announced aircraft.

Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is a pattern.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:25 am

ewt340 wrote:
Unknown order for the MAX stands at 1,588 order. 1,043 are from Unidentified Customers. 545 are from Airlines or Leasing Companies. Unless you could show me a proof on how both of those 1,043 and 545 orders are for B737MAX8. Then A320neo outsold B737MAX8.


The unknown orders are going to be for 8, 9, or 10. The leasing companies will be ordering 8s nearly exclusively, for the same reasons they have ordered 737-800s nearly exclusively. The airlines may have more of a mix, but it is more believable to me to think that the mix will be typical of the orders already identified than that it will be wildly different. And the mix would need to be wildly different—specifically, the 9 or 10 would need to be well over half of the unidentified orders—for the A320neo to have outsold the 8 since the MAX launch.

And if there were that many 9 or 10 orders, then rumors of the A321neo's dominance would be greatly exaggerated. I don't think they are; the A321neo is clearly superior. The A320neo, on the other hand, is not. The 8 has two rows' more capacity than the A320neo for no more operating expense, and (unlike its bigger siblings) doesn't have a field performance problem.
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:28 am

Bradin wrote:
Throwing my two cents in:

Nothing to see. Nothing to worry about.

Boeing has been making some incredibly sharp analysis, as well as watching the markets like a hawk They are properly taking into account customer feedback to develop the proper product any airline customer desires.

Boeing has done it for the 787/A350 marketspace. Then the 747-8/A380 marketspace.

Let's see if that happens with the 777x or the next announced aircraft.

Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is a pattern.


Well they make great decisions on B777, B787, but now the clock is ticking on B737MAX and the NMA.
They make bad decision to focus on B747-8i. Same goes for their lack of strategy to counter A321 rise in popularity which became their biggest threat today.
Let's hope the next one would be similar to B787 story instead of B747-8i.
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:34 am

seabosdca wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Unknown order for the MAX stands at 1,588 order. 1,043 are from Unidentified Customers. 545 are from Airlines or Leasing Companies. Unless you could show me a proof on how both of those 1,043 and 545 orders are for B737MAX8. Then A320neo outsold B737MAX8.


The unknown orders are going to be for 8, 9, or 10. The leasing companies will be ordering 8s nearly exclusively, for the same reasons they have ordered 737-800s nearly exclusively. The airlines may have more of a mix, but it is more believable to me to think that the mix will be typical of the orders already identified than that it will be wildly different. And the mix would need to be wildly different—specifically, the 9 or 10 would need to be well over half of the unidentified orders—for the A320neo to have outsold the 8 since the MAX launch.

And if there were that many 9 or 10 orders, then rumors of the A321neo's dominance would be greatly exaggerated. I don't think they are; the A321neo is clearly superior. The A320neo, on the other hand, is not. The 8 has two rows' more capacity than the A320neo for no more operating expense, and (unlike its bigger siblings) doesn't have a field performance problem.


So if we assume that all of the 1,588 unknown order to be MAX8. Then the MAX8 would have 4,202 order. While A320neo current known orders are at 4,191.

A320neo main success comes from LCC. And many of them are happy to squeeze 180-186 seats on the cabin with 28"-29" pitch.
B737MAX8 main success also comes from LCC but, the fact that MAX8 have longer usable cabin space, Full service airlines could used it to add 2 more rows while still being able to fit into the 189 seats limit.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:57 am

The whole comparison is pointless as both assembly lines (or multiple lines for both) run at 100% capacity.

At the moment the possible maximum output is directly affecting the market share of the products. Neither of the 2 competitors has the capacity to gain 100% market share or even 75% as neither has the production capacity for it. The demand exceeds the supply for both products combined. And to be honest this is a very comfortable position for both to be in, as direct competition is kind of self regulating in this environment, as any large win by the competitor takes away delivery slots for his product, which means in the next competition he will have problems to guarantee delivery slots which works in the competition´s favour.
 
QXAS
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:15 am

ewt340 wrote:
QXAS wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
The key words here are „since it became available“, referring to the fact that the NEO had a head start. I don’t know the exact figures though...

In addition the figure of 2614 being used here is wildly inaccurate. Boeing doesn’t differentiate between models for many orders, however the 8 is the baseline model, so if the model isn’t noted, -8 is the most likely. There are 1,588 of these unknown orders. That leads us to this, if the 2,614 figure for known orders is correct, then we can assume that the 1,588 figure is also correct. That makes up to 4,202 MAX 8 orders. But let’s assume that the number 1,588 is proportioned similarly to the proportions of the “known” MAX order book sans -7. That calculation leads to 3,851 MAX 8 aircraft on order. Now we’re going to look at the A320NEO order book. Of the 4,191 airplanes ordered, 1038 were ordered prior to the MAX launch. This means 3,153 have been ordered since. Since the MAX 8 orderbook is unknown the best guess we have is that the unknown orders are proportionate to the known orders which leads us to about 3,851 MAX 8 orders compared to 3,153 A320NEO orders since MAX 8 Launch.
So while it cannot be confirmed which has sold better than the other since MAX 8 launched, it is more likely that the MAX 8 is edging out the 320NEO, than the 320NEO edging out MAX 8.


So, nobody including Boeing could know if B737MAX8 outsold A320neo to this day because many airlines still haven't decide if they gonna order MAX8 yet because there's a big possibility that they could switched up the order to MAX7, MAX9 or MAX10?
So, A320neo sold more than B737MAX8 AND B737MAX200 combines?

This is the same with the nitpicking between A350 and B787. But in REAL life, the final number of the orders TODAY is the only important part.
MAX8 could be launched 10 years before A320neo. But if today the order numbers for A320neo is higher, then it is higher regardless of the time differences. These 2 plane are few years apart. They are not from different decades.

You said that the statement that 7M8 has outsold 320NEO since it became available was a big fat LIE. Which it’s not because it’s more complicated than that. Boeing may have a ballpark estimate but airlines can swap between models as they see fit, one of the benefits of ordering 737. It’s impossible for any of us to know the actual 737 tally. However it is more than likely, almost a certainty that the 7M8 has outsold 320NEO since it became available. Therefore the statement which you called a big fat LIE, is not a big fat LIE.

I can guarantee that none of those 1588 airplanes will be delivered as -7s. It’s reasonable to assume they’ll be delivered at proportions similar to the known orderbook. So that’s how we get to my conclusion that since both have been on the market, -8 is outselling 320NEO by about 700 planes. But you seem averse to using proportions and analysis.

So we can do it your way and simply ignore the existence of 31% of the MAX orderbook to push the agenda that the plane is dying.

Again, today it’s impossible to know how many of the current order book is actually MAX 8. Boeing doesn’t know. We don’t know. The airlines have their fleet plans but those can change in 5 years. But it is most likely that the statement that 7M8 has outsold A320NEO since its instroduction is a true statement using basic statistical analysis. You called that statement a “big fat LIE”. I’m simply disproving your oversimplistic claim. Or more so, throwing doubt on it. Because at the end of the day, nobody actually knows how many 7M8 airplanes are on order. But we can make reasonable estimates based off of the current orderbook as well as trends in the market, and those reasonable estimates point to the statement which you called a “big fat LIE” being true.
I am NOT an employee of any airline or manufacturer. I speak for myself, not on the behalf of any company.
 
Bradin
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:49 am

ewt340 wrote:
Bradin wrote:
Throwing my two cents in:

Nothing to see. Nothing to worry about.

Boeing has been making some incredibly sharp analysis, as well as watching the markets like a hawk They are properly taking into account customer feedback to develop the proper product any airline customer desires.

Boeing has done it for the 787/A350 marketspace. Then the 747-8/A380 marketspace.

Let's see if that happens with the 777x or the next announced aircraft.

Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is a pattern.


Well they make great decisions on B777, B787, but now the clock is ticking on B737MAX and the NMA.
They make bad decision to focus on B747-8i. Same goes for their lack of strategy to counter A321 rise in popularity which became their biggest threat today.
Let's hope the next one would be similar to B787 story instead of B747-8i.


I've seen nothing analytically to suggest their 747-8 strategy was a bad one. If anything, I would argue it was a very smart one. They wisely invested in the 747-8 to have both a freighter and a passenger version. While the passenger aircraft may have went the way of the dinosaurs, it still lives on as a freighter. As an added benefit, it added the correct amount of market pressure on Airbus so they didn't have a complete monopoly on the very large aircraft segment nor did it give Airbus the ability to command the price and narrative. Having the 747-8i introduced a competitive element, including being able to keep the dialogue going during sales.

737MAX - Plenty of time for Boeing to design out a new aircraft. Despite being a 23 year older model than its A320 competitor, it still has managed to remain competitive despite being an older designed aircraft.

NMA - I think both Boeing and Airbus are trying to figure out this space. With Boeing's introduction of the 787 and Airbus' response to the 787 with the now scrapped A350 original design, and the redesigned A350XWB, the original midsized aircraft market has been hugely disrupted. Airbus is trying to cover with the A321s and A350 while Boeing's current answer is the 787 and a maybe an unknown aircraft.


As for Boeing's lack of strategy to counter the A321, I think we are currently not privileged into what Boeing's strategy is for the time being. Whether the strategy is a good one or bad one remains to be seen. I am however, cautiously optimistic because they appear not to be making knee-jerk decisions.

Remember..."Fools rush in where angels fear to tread"
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:39 am

2175301 wrote:
To respond to the title and original post.

I do not think that Boeing has to be actively planning the 737 replacement at this time - except for prototype concept ideas; which I am sure they are doing.

It is my estimation that Boeing has targeted about 2030 (give or take 2 years) as the EIS of the 737 replacement. That gives time for the new generation engines to mature past the initial problem stage, and allows people to roll from the NMA (797) to the 737 replacement in an orderly fashion.

I also predict that it will not look like the current tube with an under-slung wing. It will look different.

Have a great day,


Boeing is a big company. They can't bury their heads in the sand.

:arrow: The MAX is seemingly sold out until 2025, after that the outlook is grey at best.
:arrow: The 737-7 is a failure, even in it's stretched -7.5 edition. Southwest & Westjet are silently pulling out.
:arrow: The 737-9 and its -10 me-too replacement have seen conversions mainly. Few legacy's ordered it.
:arrow: The A220 captured US major customers. Likely more follow, despite a lawsuit, production is boosted.
:arrow: Boeing will align with Embraer. Re-opening the <150 segment, where Boeing missed out in recent years.
:arrow: In the 200 seat+ segment Boeing is in the process of being totally overrun by the A321NEO.

So with all these crucial developments, will a Boeing 737 replacement be back on the table in summer 2019?

Yeah, of course. :eyebrow: Not publicly, but you can't think just 3 years ahead. This isn't the footwear industry.

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ewt340
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:31 pm

QXAS wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
QXAS wrote:
In addition the figure of 2614 being used here is wildly inaccurate. Boeing doesn’t differentiate between models for many orders, however the 8 is the baseline model, so if the model isn’t noted, -8 is the most likely. There are 1,588 of these unknown orders. That leads us to this, if the 2,614 figure for known orders is correct, then we can assume that the 1,588 figure is also correct. That makes up to 4,202 MAX 8 orders. But let’s assume that the number 1,588 is proportioned similarly to the proportions of the “known” MAX order book sans -7. That calculation leads to 3,851 MAX 8 aircraft on order. Now we’re going to look at the A320NEO order book. Of the 4,191 airplanes ordered, 1038 were ordered prior to the MAX launch. This means 3,153 have been ordered since. Since the MAX 8 orderbook is unknown the best guess we have is that the unknown orders are proportionate to the known orders which leads us to about 3,851 MAX 8 orders compared to 3,153 A320NEO orders since MAX 8 Launch.
So while it cannot be confirmed which has sold better than the other since MAX 8 launched, it is more likely that the MAX 8 is edging out the 320NEO, than the 320NEO edging out MAX 8.


So, nobody including Boeing could know if B737MAX8 outsold A320neo to this day because many airlines still haven't decide if they gonna order MAX8 yet because there's a big possibility that they could switched up the order to MAX7, MAX9 or MAX10?
So, A320neo sold more than B737MAX8 AND B737MAX200 combines?

This is the same with the nitpicking between A350 and B787. But in REAL life, the final number of the orders TODAY is the only important part.
MAX8 could be launched 10 years before A320neo. But if today the order numbers for A320neo is higher, then it is higher regardless of the time differences. These 2 plane are few years apart. They are not from different decades.

You said that the statement that 7M8 has outsold 320NEO since it became available was a big fat LIE. Which it’s not because it’s more complicated than that. Boeing may have a ballpark estimate but airlines can swap between models as they see fit, one of the benefits of ordering 737. It’s impossible for any of us to know the actual 737 tally. However it is more than likely, almost a certainty that the 7M8 has outsold 320NEO since it became available. Therefore the statement which you called a big fat LIE, is not a big fat LIE.

I can guarantee that none of those 1588 airplanes will be delivered as -7s. It’s reasonable to assume they’ll be delivered at proportions similar to the known orderbook. So that’s how we get to my conclusion that since both have been on the market, -8 is outselling 320NEO by about 700 planes. But you seem averse to using proportions and analysis.

So we can do it your way and simply ignore the existence of 31% of the MAX orderbook to push the agenda that the plane is dying.

Again, today it’s impossible to know how many of the current order book is actually MAX 8. Boeing doesn’t know. We don’t know. The airlines have their fleet plans but those can change in 5 years. But it is most likely that the statement that 7M8 has outsold A320NEO since its instroduction is a true statement using basic statistical analysis. You called that statement a “big fat LIE”. I’m simply disproving your oversimplistic claim. Or more so, throwing doubt on it. Because at the end of the day, nobody actually knows how many 7M8 airplanes are on order. But we can make reasonable estimates based off of the current orderbook as well as trends in the market, and those reasonable estimates point to the statement which you called a “big fat LIE” being true.


No, please don't shoved words into my mouth. I clearly said since we don't have a valid data from Boeing for the total sales of B737MAX8. Nobody could stated that B737MAX8 outsold A320neo. I make that conclusion according to the data provided by both Airbus and Boeing. Not opinion.
You are discrediting MAX7 which is understandable. But MAX9 and MAX10?

If all the unknown orders are for B737MAX8, then it would outsold A320neo by 11 frames!
Let me give you the number again the MAX8 have 2,614 confirmed orders + 1,588 Unknown variants (1,043 of those from unidentified customers) . While A320neo have 4,191 Confirmed orders.

If some airlines order 12 or more MAX9 or MAX10. Then A320neo outsold B737MAX8 by just 1 frame.

Now which one is more likely, my calculations on the fact that some airlines would probably order 12 or more MAX9 or MAX10 or your theory on how all the orders are for MAX8?
Last edited by ewt340 on Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:53 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:45 pm

Bradin wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Bradin wrote:
Throwing my two cents in:

Nothing to see. Nothing to worry about.

Boeing has been making some incredibly sharp analysis, as well as watching the markets like a hawk They are properly taking into account customer feedback to develop the proper product any airline customer desires.

Boeing has done it for the 787/A350 marketspace. Then the 747-8/A380 marketspace.

Let's see if that happens with the 777x or the next announced aircraft.

Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is a pattern.


Well they make great decisions on B777, B787, but now the clock is ticking on B737MAX and the NMA.
They make bad decision to focus on B747-8i. Same goes for their lack of strategy to counter A321 rise in popularity which became their biggest threat today.
Let's hope the next one would be similar to B787 story instead of B747-8i.


I've seen nothing analytically to suggest their 747-8 strategy was a bad one. If anything, I would argue it was a very smart one. They wisely invested in the 747-8 to have both a freighter and a passenger version. While the passenger aircraft may have went the way of the dinosaurs, it still lives on as a freighter. As an added benefit, it added the correct amount of market pressure on Airbus so they didn't have a complete monopoly on the very large aircraft segment nor did it give Airbus the ability to command the price and narrative. Having the 747-8i introduced a competitive element, including being able to keep the dialogue going during sales.

737MAX - Plenty of time for Boeing to design out a new aircraft. Despite being a 23 year older model than its A320 competitor, it still has managed to remain competitive despite being an older designed aircraft.

NMA - I think both Boeing and Airbus are trying to figure out this space. With Boeing's introduction of the 787 and Airbus' response to the 787 with the now scrapped A350 original design, and the redesigned A350XWB, the original midsized aircraft market has been hugely disrupted. Airbus is trying to cover with the A321s and A350 while Boeing's current answer is the 787 and a maybe an unknown aircraft.


As for Boeing's lack of strategy to counter the A321, I think we are currently not privileged into what Boeing's strategy is for the time being. Whether the strategy is a good one or bad one remains to be seen. I am however, cautiously optimistic because they appear not to be making knee-jerk decisions.

Remember..."Fools rush in where angels fear to tread"


True, but at the end of the day, B747-8f became successful at the cost of the passengers variants. So it kind of equalize the situation with the program. But the one thing we need to take into account is the fact that A380 wouldn't enter the cargo market either because of the problems with the structure. And beluga comes from the A300, which is designed for short-medium haul flights. A340 doesn't have freighter versions. And they are left with A330-200F which is the equivalent of B787-8 in modern times. Now, Without B747-8f, Boeing already have valid offerings for the freighters market with B747-400F, B757-200F, B767-300F and B777-200LRF. The only thing that could come up from that is probably B777-300ERF.

In terms of the NMA (7 abreast), this would be more costly compared to A321neo/LR/XLR. Maybe this is one of the reason why Boeing hasn't launched it yet, because Airbus could bulk up A321neo easily at lower price to counter Boeing new NMA. And the 7-abreast didn't help. Those extra aisle is heavy if we compared it to the 1 aisle 6-abreast configurations on A321neo.
 
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:50 pm

lightsaber wrote:
brindabella wrote:
seabosdca wrote:

Uninformed speculation on your part that failure to assemble a group of launch customers is the reason for delay in the launch decision. I can imagine a few other reasons, in what I see as decreasing order of likelihood:

1) difficulty in nailing down a production process that will get Boeing the control and margins it seeks
2) reluctance by Boeing to commit until the last possible moment, to delay Airbus as much as possible in responding
3) launch customers still working through disagreements about what Boeing should build

There are a great many airlines that have publicly expressed ardent interest in NMA, including majors in all three of the world's largest aviation markets. This is not a 747-8 or even 777X situation where many likely customers are keeping their distance (or, in the case of the 748, publicly denying interest).


I think I can add a 4) to that -
I particularly enjoyed Muilenberg's genuflecting to the Board's sensitivities in the 2018 Annual where development risks where concerned.

He talked about carefully managing development loads (risks) so that such loads were sequential (in series) rather than in parallel.

Very comforting. Very soporific!

However the actuality is that:
1) MAX7 is not yet certified;
2) MAX10 is still a twinkle in the designer's eye;
3) 777-9 has yet to roll-out; and
4) 777-8 is yet another twinkle!
5) but meanwhile Muilenberg has 1,000 expert staff (minimum) full-time on the 797.

:eek:

Forgive me for assessing all that as a massively-parallel development effort!

But to "conserve the appearances" (a la Galileo), Muilenberg says with a straight face that BA is carefully and sequentially programming development effort.

So when we understand that "appearances must be conserved" :
Then we see reason 4) revealed!

:bigthumbsup:

cheers

Most of the in development you list do not require the same engineers as say the 778.

Take landing gear. All are at least in qual test configuration, which means 80% of the design team is looking for something to do. Landing gear engineers... are landing gear engineers and have little interest in working anything else except arrestor hooks. If work wasn't started on the gear 2 years ago, it isn't happening. There is a reason so many aircraft use "hand me down" landing gear. If an engineer wants to jump ship to United Technologies, Lockheed, or Northrop, they'll be welcome with open arms (assuming suitable references*).

Same with cockpit design teams.
Same with wing design (excluding a few stress engineers to cut weight).
Same with vertical and horizontal stabilizer design (although, those engineers tend to be flexible).

What Boeing has on the dock is heavy into test (my current work), but not so much fundamental design. Since the 797, excluding software, will not be into component testing until 2021 (through 2024).
In particular gear and brakes must start early. Same with the mock cockpit.
Subsystems start 2022, systems (iron bird) by 2023. Flight test by 2024. All for a 2025 EIS.

But if you look at the programs you mentioned, they will exit design and testing stages in time for the staff to work the 797.

In fact, Boeing will have degreed engineers start fleeing if they do not launch by Paris due to work being completed. People like to know their next project.

Lightsaber


Thanks for that.

I suspect D. Muilenberg could use your services explaining all that to the Board! :D

Meanwhile ... arrestor hooks (!)

Que??

cheers
Billy
 
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:27 pm

keesje wrote:
The MAX is seemingly sold out until 2025, after that the outlook is grey at best.

The MAX is sold out until 2025, after that they are fine because the last two years they've booked more than they've built by a good margin and there's no evidence of that trend reversing.

keesje wrote:
The 737-7 is a failure, even in it's stretched -7.5 edition. Southwest & Westjet are silently pulling out.

That's akin to saying the A321neo is in trouble because A319 sales are weak.

keesje wrote:
The 737-9 and its -10 me-too replacement have seen conversions mainly. Few legacy's ordered it.

The -9 has sold well enough and the -10 hasn't flown yet.

keesje wrote:
The A220 captured US major customers. Likely more follow, despite a lawsuit, production is boosted.

A220 has a tiny production rate and addresses the low end price sensitive low profit end of the market.

keesje wrote:
Boeing will align with Embraer. Re-opening the <150 segment, where Boeing missed out in recent years.

It's a side show at best, just like A220.

keesje wrote:
In the 200 seat+ segment Boeing is in the process of being totally overrun by the A321NEO.

That's why they're considering NMA.

keesje wrote:
So with all these crucial developments, will a Boeing 737 replacement be back on the table in summer 2019?

It's as likely as Ecoliner going in to production in 2019, IMO.
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:31 pm

So the only plane with 200+ seats in the world is the A321? Maybe somebody should tell the market leading 787.
 
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:43 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Unknown order for the MAX stands at 1,588 order. 1,043 are from Unidentified Customers. 545 are from Airlines or Leasing Companies. Unless you could show me a proof on how both of those 1,043 and 545 orders are for B737MAX8. Then A320neo outsold B737MAX8.


All moving targets. Airbus projects that A321 will move strongly towards 50% of deliveries.
That would indicate another avalanche of A321 orders and/or significant number of upconversions.

So all things having resolved and happened MAX8 may well show more orders than the A320 at some time in the future.
I wonder if the MAX-10 fills sales expectations ?
Murphy is an optimist
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:50 pm

WIederling wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Unknown order for the MAX stands at 1,588 order. 1,043 are from Unidentified Customers. 545 are from Airlines or Leasing Companies. Unless you could show me a proof on how both of those 1,043 and 545 orders are for B737MAX8. Then A320neo outsold B737MAX8.


All moving targets. Airbus projects that A321 will move strongly towards 50% of deliveries.
That would indicate another avalanche of A321 orders and/or significant number of upconversions.

So all things having resolved and happened MAX8 may well show more orders than the A320 at some time in the future.
I wonder if the MAX-10 fills sales expectations ?


Presumably many MAX10 orders come from the conversion from the MAX9. Non-conversion orders usually came from Leasing Companies or some young airlines expanding like FlyDubai.
Boeing expected MAX10 gain orders from the conversion from the MAX9. Not necessary to gain big market share from A321neo, just to hold off the momentum for a bit.

So it did fills its expectation for Boeing at least.
 
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:23 pm

keesje wrote:
Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
The MAX is seemingly sold out until 2025, after that the outlook is grey at best.

The MAX is sold out until 2025, after that they are fine because the last two years they've booked more than they've built by a good margin and there's no evidence of that trend reversing.

keesje wrote:
The 737-7 is a failure, even in it's stretched -7.5 edition. Southwest & Westjet are silently pulling out.

That's akin to saying the A321neo is in trouble because A319 sales are weak.

keesje wrote:
The 737-9 and its -10 me-too replacement have seen conversions mainly. Few legacy's ordered it.

The -9 has sold well enough and the -10 hasn't flown yet.

keesje wrote:
The A220 captured US major customers. Likely more follow, despite a lawsuit, production is boosted.

A220 has a tiny production rate and addresses the low end price sensitive low profit end of the market.

keesje wrote:
Boeing will align with Embraer. Re-opening the <150 segment, where Boeing missed out in recent years.

It's a side show at best, just like A220.

keesje wrote:
In the 200 seat+ segment Boeing is in the process of being totally overrun by the A321NEO.

That's why they're considering NMA.

keesje wrote:
So with all these crucial developments, will a Boeing 737 replacement be back on the table in summer 2019?

It's as likely as Ecoliner going in to production in 2019, IMO.


Boeing can't put it's head in the sand. They have a business to run and need to move ahead, or face the consequences.


Here are other non sequitors that are painfully obvious yet contribute nothing to the discussion:

Airbus is successful at building twin engine airplanes.

Lift keeps airplanes in the air.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:51 pm

The MOM will be first, introducing a new model has a few years after certification of slow deliveries - rate 3 kind of stuff. MOM gets up to 10 per month and the bugs are basically all driven out of the model. Then a NSA will be launched but quietly as another pair of models for the 797. It is very important to not disrupt the 737 backlogs so work new models more capable than the current. Pair a new NSA model to be able to do 2,000 more miles than a 737-10 with the same seating and a model with 1,200 more range with 18 more seats. It shifts the -10 to cover the shorter ranges and the NSA covering more but costing more.

So by then they would have rate 20 going for what is officially the 797, then the 3rd model is introduced to do the same with the 738. With all new planes and lines it is very tricky to transition over even 10 years something that is at rate 50+. It is likely the 737 will be producing still at rate 20 in 2035. Renton will not get the NSA production, it will stay 737 for 30 more years before being closed out, it is too tight of a production site.
 
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:51 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
The MOM will be first, introducing a new model has a few years after certification of slow deliveries - rate 3 kind of stuff. MOM gets up to 10 per month and the bugs are basically all driven out of the model. Then a NSA will be launched but quietly as another pair of models for the 797. It is very important to not disrupt the 737 backlogs so work new models more capable than the current. Pair a new NSA model to be able to do 2,000 more miles than a 737-10 with the same seating and a model with 1,200 more range with 18 more seats. It shifts the -10 to cover the shorter ranges and the NSA covering more but costing more.

So by then they would have rate 20 going for what is officially the 797, then the 3rd model is introduced to do the same with the 738. With all new planes and lines it is very tricky to transition over even 10 years something that is at rate 50+. It is likely the 737 will be producing still at rate 20 in 2035. Renton will not get the NSA production, it will stay 737 for 30 more years before being closed out, it is too tight of a production site.

I agree with this approach. A narrowbody 797 would be pulling a Sinclair (announcing a great new product so early no one bought the old product).

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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:23 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Bradin wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

Well they make great decisions on B777, B787, but now the clock is ticking on B737MAX and the NMA.
They make bad decision to focus on B747-8i. Same goes for their lack of strategy to counter A321 rise in popularity which became their biggest threat today.
Let's hope the next one would be similar to B787 story instead of B747-8i.


I've seen nothing analytically to suggest their 747-8 strategy was a bad one. If anything, I would argue it was a very smart one. They wisely invested in the 747-8 to have both a freighter and a passenger version. While the passenger aircraft may have went the way of the dinosaurs, it still lives on as a freighter. As an added benefit, it added the correct amount of market pressure on Airbus so they didn't have a complete monopoly on the very large aircraft segment nor did it give Airbus the ability to command the price and narrative. Having the 747-8i introduced a competitive element, including being able to keep the dialogue going during sales.

737MAX - Plenty of time for Boeing to design out a new aircraft. Despite being a 23 year older model than its A320 competitor, it still has managed to remain competitive despite being an older designed aircraft.

NMA - I think both Boeing and Airbus are trying to figure out this space. With Boeing's introduction of the 787 and Airbus' response to the 787 with the now scrapped A350 original design, and the redesigned A350XWB, the original midsized aircraft market has been hugely disrupted. Airbus is trying to cover with the A321s and A350 while Boeing's current answer is the 787 and a maybe an unknown aircraft.


As for Boeing's lack of strategy to counter the A321, I think we are currently not privileged into what Boeing's strategy is for the time being. Whether the strategy is a good one or bad one remains to be seen. I am however, cautiously optimistic because they appear not to be making knee-jerk decisions.

Remember..."Fools rush in where angels fear to tread"


True, but at the end of the day, B747-8f became successful at the cost of the passengers variants. So it kind of equalize the situation with the program. But the one thing we need to take into account is the fact that A380 wouldn't enter the cargo market either because of the problems with the structure. And beluga comes from the A300, which is designed for short-medium haul flights. A340 doesn't have freighter versions. And they are left with A330-200F which is the equivalent of B787-8 in modern times. Now, Without B747-8f, Boeing already have valid offerings for the freighters market with B747-400F, B757-200F, B767-300F and B777-200LRF. The only thing that could come up from that is probably B777-300ERF.

In terms of the NMA (7 abreast), this would be more costly compared to A321neo/LR/XLR. Maybe this is one of the reason why Boeing hasn't launched it yet, because Airbus could bulk up A321neo easily at lower price to counter Boeing new NMA. And the 7-abreast didn't help. Those extra aisle is heavy if we compared it to the 1 aisle 6-abreast configurations on A321neo.


I don't understand how the 747-8F became successful at the cost of passenger variants. One is a freighter. The other is a passenger aircraft. They both have very different functionality. Please help me to understand.

As to the NMA - a mild comparison between lemons and limes. It probably is taking Boeing more work to do a proper clean slate aircraft and understanding airlines requirements than it is to re-engineer or enhance an existing aircraft like the A321.
 
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:34 pm

Bradin wrote:
As to the NMA - a mild comparison between lemons and limes. It probably is taking Boeing more work to do a proper clean slate aircraft and understanding airlines requirements than it is to re-engineer or enhance an existing aircraft like the A321.

Yes, Boeing must line up a supply chain. Botched interface requirements really delayed the 787 and added multi-billions to the cost. That must be avoided.

However, due to the 777x, Boeing has a recently experienced wing design team, so I expect the fewest mistakes ever, on the wing.

Boeing is also responding to customer feedback on E2 and C-series subsystems. The subsystems on those aircraft cost less to maintain and save even more fuel than 787 subsystems. The value must be distilled and decisions made.

I'm still trying to understand the OP's premise. It is far too late to change the concept from a widebody to a narrowbody to out anything on the table for contracts at the Paris airshow.

Due to my industry contacts, I hear about new concepts that take new subsystems or engines years in advance. (Usually 3 years before 1st order). Now, 70% of what I hear about doesn't happen. The lead times are long.

Today there is a HUGE shortage in the latest generation of machine tools. Between the tax cuts (helps pay for earlier optimization of production) and the good economy, there is a go all backlog for the manufacturing machines. So any plans impact my ability to have my team members order tools. Right now, the larger tools, needed for widebodies, have the longer backlog.... Just saying...

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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:00 pm

Where volume bites you, is during periods of run down (old model) and run up (new model).

Whenever a new 737 is released, Boeing will incentivise model hopping, in order to wind down the old, and wind up the new as rapidly as possible, a departure from the past.

The incentive will likely vary according to the contracted year of delivery for the old model.
 
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:42 pm

ewt340 wrote:
QXAS wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

So, nobody including Boeing could know if B737MAX8 outsold A320neo to this day because many airlines still haven't decide if they gonna order MAX8 yet because there's a big possibility that they could switched up the order to MAX7, MAX9 or MAX10?
So, A320neo sold more than B737MAX8 AND B737MAX200 combines?

This is the same with the nitpicking between A350 and B787. But in REAL life, the final number of the orders TODAY is the only important part.
MAX8 could be launched 10 years before A320neo. But if today the order numbers for A320neo is higher, then it is higher regardless of the time differences. These 2 plane are few years apart. They are not from different decades.

You said that the statement that 7M8 has outsold 320NEO since it became available was a big fat LIE. Which it’s not because it’s more complicated than that. Boeing may have a ballpark estimate but airlines can swap between models as they see fit, one of the benefits of ordering 737. It’s impossible for any of us to know the actual 737 tally. However it is more than likely, almost a certainty that the 7M8 has outsold 320NEO since it became available. Therefore the statement which you called a big fat LIE, is not a big fat LIE.

I can guarantee that none of those 1588 airplanes will be delivered as -7s. It’s reasonable to assume they’ll be delivered at proportions similar to the known orderbook. So that’s how we get to my conclusion that since both have been on the market, -8 is outselling 320NEO by about 700 planes. But you seem averse to using proportions and analysis.

So we can do it your way and simply ignore the existence of 31% of the MAX orderbook to push the agenda that the plane is dying.

Again, today it’s impossible to know how many of the current order book is actually MAX 8. Boeing doesn’t know. We don’t know. The airlines have their fleet plans but those can change in 5 years. But it is most likely that the statement that 7M8 has outsold A320NEO since its instroduction is a true statement using basic statistical analysis. You called that statement a “big fat LIE”. I’m simply disproving your oversimplistic claim. Or more so, throwing doubt on it. Because at the end of the day, nobody actually knows how many 7M8 airplanes are on order. But we can make reasonable estimates based off of the current orderbook as well as trends in the market, and those reasonable estimates point to the statement which you called a “big fat LIE” being true.


No, please don't shoved words into my mouth. I clearly said since we don't have a valid data from Boeing for the total sales of B737MAX8. Nobody could stated that B737MAX8 outsold A320neo. I make that conclusion according to the data provided by both Airbus and Boeing. Not opinion.
You are discrediting MAX7 which is understandable. But MAX9 and MAX10?

If all the unknown orders are for B737MAX8, then it would outsold A320neo by 11 frames!
Let me give you the number again the MAX8 have 2,614 confirmed orders + 1,588 Unknown variants (1,043 of those from unidentified customers) . While A320neo have 4,191 Confirmed orders.

If some airlines order 12 or more MAX9 or MAX10. Then A320neo outsold B737MAX8 by just 1 frame.

Now which one is more likely, my calculations on the fact that some airlines would probably order 12 or more MAX9 or MAX10 or your theory on how all the orders are for MAX8?
Clearly the theory I initially stated that the orders are distributed proportionally based on the known orderbook. All other options are extremes with very little basis. But that distribution still makes your original statement which was that 7M8 has outsold 320NEO since both were on the market is a “big fat LIE” an incorrect statement, one which you boldly claimed as fact.
I am NOT an employee of any airline or manufacturer. I speak for myself, not on the behalf of any company.
 
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 1:06 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Bradin wrote:
As to the NMA - a mild comparison between lemons and limes. It probably is taking Boeing more work to do a proper clean slate aircraft and understanding airlines requirements than it is to re-engineer or enhance an existing aircraft like the A321.

Yes, Boeing must line up a supply chain. Botched interface requirements really delayed the 787 and added multi-billions to the cost. That must be avoided.

However, due to the 777x, Boeing has a recently experienced wing design team, so I expect the fewest mistakes ever, on the wing.

Boeing is also responding to customer feedback on E2 and C-series subsystems. The subsystems on those aircraft cost less to maintain and save even more fuel than 787 subsystems. The value must be distilled and decisions made.

I'm still trying to understand the OP's premise. It is far too late to change the concept from a widebody to a narrowbody to out anything on the table for contracts at the Paris airshow.



The risks of doing proper clean slate aircraft and understanding airlines requirements over a longer period of time, is that your customers and competitors move ahead anyway.

The Reuters message yesterday that Airbus is lining up launching customers for the A321XLR could change assumptions and starting point set 3-4 years ago.

Specially if the A321XLR gets a bigger sister and major customers like e.g. United, Qantas jump ship. That changes the process. Like in did in 2011, NSA/737MAX. The market forced Boeing to move ahead. They thought too long. Paris could become exciting again.
Last edited by keesje on Fri Feb 22, 2019 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 1:15 pm

Yes it will be (Paris). My first reaction when I saw the Reuters article would be that this would force Boeing to launch NMA sooner rather than later.

This may be what Airbus wants Boeing to do (and this is purely speculation) thinking that Boeing will base NSA on NMA which they will then counter with A220-500 and 700 with a Bigger wing (taking on Role of A320 and A320.5) and then work on a replacement for the A321/A322/A330 that's even bigger than NMA - an NMA-XWB (Maybe that one is 8W vs an assumption that Boeing will do 7W) and it will be 767/330 all over again.

They probably don't want to give Boeing too much time to think and build an 6W NSA now and force them down the very costly road of replacing A320. Otherwise they would probably just stay quiet and wait for NMA to launch and counter with possible rewing A321/322.

Yes very convuluted - but it's chess - you have to think(speculate) a few moves ahead.
 
B764er
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 1:50 pm

That last illustration of the 797 posted here yesterday is how envisioned it from day one. Love the new nose on it. Thats the new face of Boeing. Hopefully the new 737 will also have it. For the new technology all they have to do is look back to the 787.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:16 pm

keesje wrote:

:arrow: The MAX is seemingly sold out until 2025, after that the outlook is grey at best.]


That is an entirely unsubstantiated opinion. The 737MAX is selling well. The 737MAX outselling the A320neo family last year is clearly an indication that the outlook is not grey at best.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:41 pm

keesje wrote:

The risks of doing proper clean slate aircraft and understanding airlines requirements over a longer period of time, is that your customers and competitors move ahead anyway.

The Reuters message yesterday that Airbus is lining up launching customers for the A321XLR could change assumptions and starting point set 3-4 years ago.

Specially if the A321XLR gets a bigger sister and major customers like e.g. United, Qantas jump ship. That changes the process. Like in did in 2011, NSA/737MAX. The market forced Boeing to move ahead. They thought too long. Paris could become exciting again.


There is risk as well with modifying existing airplanes cheaply and quickly instead of investing in an all new design. The MD-11 was a re-engined stretch of the DC10 which saw quite a bit of market interest until the 777 abolished it despite being 4 years later. A proper clean slate aircraft over a longer period of time can be the better choice.

Risks go both ways. The 737NG was a successful re-engined design with a new wing. The MD-11 and 747-8 weren’t so successful.

We won’t know for a decade which strategy is the better choice now, so all the posturing in the world to cast shade on one manufacturers plan is little more than blowing smoke. The facts today are that both the 737MAX and A320neo are selling well.
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:58 pm

Bradin wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Bradin wrote:

I've seen nothing analytically to suggest their 747-8 strategy was a bad one. If anything, I would argue it was a very smart one. They wisely invested in the 747-8 to have both a freighter and a passenger version. While the passenger aircraft may have went the way of the dinosaurs, it still lives on as a freighter. As an added benefit, it added the correct amount of market pressure on Airbus so they didn't have a complete monopoly on the very large aircraft segment nor did it give Airbus the ability to command the price and narrative. Having the 747-8i introduced a competitive element, including being able to keep the dialogue going during sales.

737MAX - Plenty of time for Boeing to design out a new aircraft. Despite being a 23 year older model than its A320 competitor, it still has managed to remain competitive despite being an older designed aircraft.

NMA - I think both Boeing and Airbus are trying to figure out this space. With Boeing's introduction of the 787 and Airbus' response to the 787 with the now scrapped A350 original design, and the redesigned A350XWB, the original midsized aircraft market has been hugely disrupted. Airbus is trying to cover with the A321s and A350 while Boeing's current answer is the 787 and a maybe an unknown aircraft.


As for Boeing's lack of strategy to counter the A321, I think we are currently not privileged into what Boeing's strategy is for the time being. Whether the strategy is a good one or bad one remains to be seen. I am however, cautiously optimistic because they appear not to be making knee-jerk decisions.

Remember..."Fools rush in where angels fear to tread"


True, but at the end of the day, B747-8f became successful at the cost of the passengers variants. So it kind of equalize the situation with the program. But the one thing we need to take into account is the fact that A380 wouldn't enter the cargo market either because of the problems with the structure. And beluga comes from the A300, which is designed for short-medium haul flights. A340 doesn't have freighter versions. And they are left with A330-200F which is the equivalent of B787-8 in modern times. Now, Without B747-8f, Boeing already have valid offerings for the freighters market with B747-400F, B757-200F, B767-300F and B777-200LRF. The only thing that could come up from that is probably B777-300ERF.

In terms of the NMA (7 abreast), this would be more costly compared to A321neo/LR/XLR. Maybe this is one of the reason why Boeing hasn't launched it yet, because Airbus could bulk up A321neo easily at lower price to counter Boeing new NMA. And the 7-abreast didn't help. Those extra aisle is heavy if we compared it to the 1 aisle 6-abreast configurations on A321neo.


I don't understand how the 747-8F became successful at the cost of passenger variants. One is a freighter. The other is a passenger aircraft. They both have very different functionality. Please help me to understand.

As to the NMA - a mild comparison between lemons and limes. It probably is taking Boeing more work to do a proper clean slate aircraft and understanding airlines requirements than it is to re-engineer or enhance an existing aircraft like the A321.


In terms of the profit. They gotta spent couple billions on the passengers variants, and then a little bit more billions for the freighter variants. The amount of money they spent on the passengers variants probably didn't paid off. Most people only counted the profits after manufacturing cost. But all the other expenses to keep the program alive for years and even decades plus wages could take big chunks of the profit they gain from the freighter variants. This is not counting the fact that -8f practically kill B747-400F.
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:01 pm

QXAS wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
QXAS wrote:
You said that the statement that 7M8 has outsold 320NEO since it became available was a big fat LIE. Which it’s not because it’s more complicated than that. Boeing may have a ballpark estimate but airlines can swap between models as they see fit, one of the benefits of ordering 737. It’s impossible for any of us to know the actual 737 tally. However it is more than likely, almost a certainty that the 7M8 has outsold 320NEO since it became available. Therefore the statement which you called a big fat LIE, is not a big fat LIE.

I can guarantee that none of those 1588 airplanes will be delivered as -7s. It’s reasonable to assume they’ll be delivered at proportions similar to the known orderbook. So that’s how we get to my conclusion that since both have been on the market, -8 is outselling 320NEO by about 700 planes. But you seem averse to using proportions and analysis.

So we can do it your way and simply ignore the existence of 31% of the MAX orderbook to push the agenda that the plane is dying.

Again, today it’s impossible to know how many of the current order book is actually MAX 8. Boeing doesn’t know. We don’t know. The airlines have their fleet plans but those can change in 5 years. But it is most likely that the statement that 7M8 has outsold A320NEO since its instroduction is a true statement using basic statistical analysis. You called that statement a “big fat LIE”. I’m simply disproving your oversimplistic claim. Or more so, throwing doubt on it. Because at the end of the day, nobody actually knows how many 7M8 airplanes are on order. But we can make reasonable estimates based off of the current orderbook as well as trends in the market, and those reasonable estimates point to the statement which you called a “big fat LIE” being true.


No, please don't shoved words into my mouth. I clearly said since we don't have a valid data from Boeing for the total sales of B737MAX8. Nobody could stated that B737MAX8 outsold A320neo. I make that conclusion according to the data provided by both Airbus and Boeing. Not opinion.
You are discrediting MAX7 which is understandable. But MAX9 and MAX10?

If all the unknown orders are for B737MAX8, then it would outsold A320neo by 11 frames!
Let me give you the number again the MAX8 have 2,614 confirmed orders + 1,588 Unknown variants (1,043 of those from unidentified customers) . While A320neo have 4,191 Confirmed orders.

If some airlines order 12 or more MAX9 or MAX10. Then A320neo outsold B737MAX8 by just 1 frame.

Now which one is more likely, my calculations on the fact that some airlines would probably order 12 or more MAX9 or MAX10 or your theory on how all the orders are for MAX8?
Clearly the theory I initially stated that the orders are distributed proportionally based on the known orderbook. All other options are extremes with very little basis. But that distribution still makes your original statement which was that 7M8 has outsold 320NEO since both were on the market is a “big fat LIE” an incorrect statement, one which you boldly claimed as fact.


By the same logic, any person out there who said that B737MAX8 has outsold A320neo is a liar. Because we have 0 evidence to suggest so.

Anybody claiming otherwise is a Liar. No?

All I have is the order book from both Airbus and Boeing. You could checked it yourself to make any sort of conclusions:

https://www.airbus.com/content/dam/corporate-topics/publications/backgrounders/Backgrounder-Airbus-Commercial-Aircraft-A320neo-Customers-list-EN.pdf
http://active.boeing.com/commercial/orders/displaystandardreport.cfm?cboCurrentModel=737&optReportType=AllModels&cboAllModel=737&ViewReportF=View+Report
 
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monomojo
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 4:07 pm

bigjku wrote:
Revelation wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
You think Boeing became the most successful company by staying still and let their biggest competitors work on new next gen aircraft?
B787 is the proof for Boeing success. They didn't re-engine B777-200ER in mid 2000. They make a new clean sheet aircraft to gain profits and market shares, and it paid off in a big way.

Also, you don't wake up one day and launch a new aircraft, the research could take decades. I don't think Boeing is dumb enough to ignore it.

You still remember when Boeing is leader in the narrow-body market? Yeah, not anymore with the NEO and MAX. More than 1,500 differences in orders. And everybody get offended by me. Weird....

I can you see you've been here seven years so I would think you would know that people would find it offensive to suggest a mainline product with record orders, record backlog, record production rate and from (what we can tell) record profits is dying.

I have to think MAX is filling if not exceeding all expectations Boeing had for it from the point of view they care the most on: return on investment.

New clean sheet aircraft are not a guarantee of success, see A380 for what can go wrong.

I think successful companies are successful because they're good at picking their battles, not because they feel they have to have a new product in every market segment.

Airbus must feel the same way since they've been doing NEOs for more than a little while now (A340-500/600 were in essence neos, just like A320neo, A330neo, etc).

Boeing (and Airbus too) are struggling to figure out exactly when and how to do a new clean sheet narrow body. I think we can be sure both are doing all kinds of R&D in that direction. Yet I also think neither are going to pull the plug on their current generation products till the sales are clearly winding down. Given both have 5+ years backlog that clearly isn't happening yet.


The bold here is critically important IMO to understanding what is going on here. The NEO thing happened and the A320 is better suited to it than the 737. It is what it is. So far Boeing has maintained touch on production rates and sales appear to be robust enough to keep things running. Picking a fight with the whole of the A320neo family with NSA right out the gate would have been a production nightmare. Not doing it was the right call.

So once you do the Max your question becomes how do we attack the A320neo family and properly position ourself going forward. The key, as far as I am concerned is NMA leading into NSA. Cap the top end of the market so that A321 and possibly A322 commonality doesn’t kill you and more importantly doesn’t force your NSA out of the A320neo/737-8 sweet spot. Then come in with NSA being optimized for the vast bulk of the routes out there and the A321/A322 will die anyway. It’s dependent on A320 volume anyway.

Both the A320 and 737 were not designed with these levels of mass production in mind. Everyone I have talked to at Boeing describes the 737 as “expensive” to build. They mean this relative to what they believe they can accomplish going forward.

The transition to whatever replaces the bulk of the 737/A320neo market is going to be the riskiest thing either Boeing or Airbus ever do. If Boeing really believes they have a step change in manufacturing process on hand that will let them crush their competition on a cost basis they are going to deploy this right into the sweet spot of the market fully optimized for it. NMA is the test run. NSA will sit firmly on the 737-8 market area.


I can't agree with this post enough. Boeing is taking their time with the 797, because if they really nail it, they'll own the MoM for decades. If they have a really good product at the top of that segment, they leave very little room for an effective Airbus response in the seam between the 797 and the 787-8. If the 787 series sees a refresh by the early 2030s (which it should, that will be getting on to 20 years since 787 EIS) almost certainly they'll take the opportunity to trim weight from the 787-8, and it will be even better at the lower end of its range, which means Boeing will have a world-beating product for any airline need for 240 - 350 pax aircraft in the 2500 to 6500nm range.

Taking into account bigku's last paragraph, if you add in the the NSA to that mix, then by 2035 Boeing has an extremely competitive, if not dominant, offering for every part of the market from 150 to 350 seats, and from 500nm to 6500nm miles, with minimal overlap in capabilities between segments. That would be a very good position to be in, but it starts with making sure the 797 is absolutely right as it can be at launch.
 
mpdpilot
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 5:29 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
Actually Delta is quite interested....
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ls-797-jet


Agreed about DL and LH about being big on maintenance contracts. But neither are a likely candidates for the NMA. Both have the A321 already.


Bastian explicitly said it was a discussion, not a decision. Launch customers can't have cold feet.

And don't forget that Anderson said the A330neo was the 767 replacement. He called the A330neo their new midsize widebody. “Certainly [Delta Air Lines CEO] Richard Anderson has been vocal about how a more efficient aircraft in that [midsize widebody] market would be welcomed by Delta … I think for a lot of [airlines] who are current operators of the A330, it would be a natural evolution to consider a neo.”

http://speednews.com/article/109747

I prefer Boeing and am anxiously awaiting the 797. But I'm also realistic of who will be ordering it. For US carriers I see United and Alaska loving it. AA might find it useful out of PHL and CLT to Europe as well as MIA-South America.


These are public companies, there isn't a "decision" because there isn't an official launch of a product yet. You won't hear who the launch customers are until the product is launched. If Delta and Boeing have agreed to something it won't be official/announced until the product is officially launched, which by my limited knowledge often requires approval of the board from Boeing.

As for what Anderson said, he isn't CEO anymore, hasn't been for almost 3 years now. The company could easily have adjusted their plan in that time.
One mile of highway gets you one mile, one mile of runway gets you anywhere.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:18 pm

The MAX8 is successfully holding its own with the A320neo. The MAX9 and MAX10 are being swamped by the A321neo. Without going into the weeds about whether or not the MAX8 has outsold the A320neo, I think we can agree on that. I think Boeing is smart in separating the two markets and attacking the one where they are losing first. The problem they face is there just is no good way to get a 757 sized aircraft out of the 737 simply because it’s legs are too short. The A320 did not have that problem. So by introducing a new aircraft optimized at over 200 passengers Boeing is leaving the MAX8 where it can effectively compete and putting Airbus at a disadvantage where they formerly were at an advantage. I am assuming here that the NMA will in fact at least equal the economics of the A321neo. That will leave Boeing with the opportunity, but not the necessity, of doing the NSA. IMHO it would be a huge mistake to tackle a 737 replacement at this time. Airlines are taking all they can get of both narrowbodies, and trying to replace the whole family while also shoving them out the door as fast as possible creates the potential for huge problems. By starting with the segment where they are weakest they have the opportunity of coming up with a much better lineup and without disrupting production. Of course it would be cheaper to just design a new narrowbody family, but the potential for that is also less. There certainly are advantages to the NMA concept that could not be realized by a super long narrowbody. And if it is successful, Airbus will be forced to answer or cede that market segment.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Bradin
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:19 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Bradin wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

True, but at the end of the day, B747-8f became successful at the cost of the passengers variants. So it kind of equalize the situation with the program. But the one thing we need to take into account is the fact that A380 wouldn't enter the cargo market either because of the problems with the structure. And beluga comes from the A300, which is designed for short-medium haul flights. A340 doesn't have freighter versions. And they are left with A330-200F which is the equivalent of B787-8 in modern times. Now, Without B747-8f, Boeing already have valid offerings for the freighters market with B747-400F, B757-200F, B767-300F and B777-200LRF. The only thing that could come up from that is probably B777-300ERF.

In terms of the NMA (7 abreast), this would be more costly compared to A321neo/LR/XLR. Maybe this is one of the reason why Boeing hasn't launched it yet, because Airbus could bulk up A321neo easily at lower price to counter Boeing new NMA. And the 7-abreast didn't help. Those extra aisle is heavy if we compared it to the 1 aisle 6-abreast configurations on A321neo.


I don't understand how the 747-8F became successful at the cost of passenger variants. One is a freighter. The other is a passenger aircraft. They both have very different functionality. Please help me to understand.

As to the NMA - a mild comparison between lemons and limes. It probably is taking Boeing more work to do a proper clean slate aircraft and understanding airlines requirements than it is to re-engineer or enhance an existing aircraft like the A321.


In terms of the profit. They gotta spent couple billions on the passengers variants, and then a little bit more billions for the freighter variants. The amount of money they spent on the passengers variants probably didn't paid off. Most people only counted the profits after manufacturing cost. But all the other expenses to keep the program alive for years and even decades plus wages could take big chunks of the profit they gain from the freighter variants. This is not counting the fact that -8f practically kill B747-400F.


I might be wrong but as I understood it, the costs were not as significant as we think it was. There are a lot of commonalities between the 747-8i ad 747-8f. If someone would like to correct me, please do because I am by no means an expert in airplane design and engineering.
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:24 pm

Bradin wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Bradin wrote:

I don't understand how the 747-8F became successful at the cost of passenger variants. One is a freighter. The other is a passenger aircraft. They both have very different functionality. Please help me to understand.

As to the NMA - a mild comparison between lemons and limes. It probably is taking Boeing more work to do a proper clean slate aircraft and understanding airlines requirements than it is to re-engineer or enhance an existing aircraft like the A321.


In terms of the profit. They gotta spent couple billions on the passengers variants, and then a little bit more billions for the freighter variants. The amount of money they spent on the passengers variants probably didn't paid off. Most people only counted the profits after manufacturing cost. But all the other expenses to keep the program alive for years and even decades plus wages could take big chunks of the profit they gain from the freighter variants. This is not counting the fact that -8f practically kill B747-400F.


I might be wrong but as I understood it, the costs were not as significant as we think it was. There are a lot of commonalities between the 747-8i ad 747-8f. If someone would like to correct me, please do because I am by no means an expert in airplane design and engineering.


Yeah of course, the one I'm talking about is the money they need to spent when they upgrade B747-400 to B747-8i. It's the first lengthened B747 they ever done. It's also being upgraded with partial fly-by-wire technology unlike B747-400. Also the delay for the -8i program cost around $1billion. They also do overhaul design to the wings. With some of the trailing edge of the wings made using composite materials which is pretty new for them. So the cost for B747-8i is pretty high.

Now, back to B737's replacement. What Boeing would need to look into is obviously the bottom line and try to prevent spending useless money that would ended up creating lackluster result. Instead of simple re-design and upgrade. They need something more radical. The void of B757-200 really hurt their market shares in narrow-body sector. The time is ticking for them to go to Airlines and created some buzz to make sure Airlines know some of the directions Boeing will go through. Otherwise, many airlines gonna plays it safe with Airbus.

Beside, the big rumor about the new-clean sheet for A32Xneo is looming now. With possibility of A350neo. And A330neo on autopilot. Airbus have some free time with their new move.
Boeing on the other hand, have B737MAX, B747-8, B787, and B777X on the table. They need to cut the fat out like Airbus did and focus on the next move. And it seems like B797 might not be the best solutions. B737's replacement might be their safe bet for now.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:13 pm

SEPilot wrote:
The MAX8 is successfully holding its own with the A320neo. The MAX9 and MAX10 are being swamped by the A321neo. Without going into the weeds about whether or not the MAX8 has outsold the A320neo

737 replacement is more urgent than realised. MAX8 sales are being made, but true margins (after retrospective credits), have been crucified, partly underwritten by suppliers, who have taken margin cuts.

Marked capability deficiency for MAX9 & 10, as A321NEO margins remain greater than A320NEO, which on price alone, should make it easier for Boeing to compete.

The problem surely for both OEM's, is a 2019 clean sheet 737 or A320 won't meet the customer bar in terms of cost versus benefit expectations and minimums.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:31 pm

smartplane wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
The MAX8 is successfully holding its own with the A320neo. The MAX9 and MAX10 are being swamped by the A321neo. Without going into the weeds about whether or not the MAX8 has outsold the A320neo

737 replacement is more urgent than realised. MAX8 sales are being made, but true margins (after retrospective credits), have been crucified, partly underwritten by suppliers, who have taken margin cuts.


Do you have any data to back up your assertion? What is the definition of true margins since I can’t find a definition on investopedia?

Margins are expanding
Boeing raked in about $12 billion in operating earnings in 2018, and about two-thirds of that came from its Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) unit. CEO Denis Muilenburg's guidance for 2019 forecasts a 14% to 15% operating margin at BCA, compared to 13% in 2018 and 9.4% in 2017. Hitting that would target would achieve a long-held aim of the company.


https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/02/ ... ve-re.aspx
 
Swadian
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:33 pm

morrisond wrote:
I wouldn't disagree with this thought. Hence why I think NMA is a lot smaller than some are expecting so they can reuse a lot of it for NSA and launch NSA a lot sooner than expected with entry into service 2028ish.

NMA- Small would be something like A321 Capacity plus 10%, and NMA Large - A321 Capacity +20-25%.

They will sell a lot more NMA's at +10% and +25% capacity over A321 vs an 8W at an 50-70% capacity increase.

Yes Airbus can build an 322 or 323 - but Boeing should have a production cost advantage and more revenue potential in a tight light 7W (only 25% more area than A321 cross section), with 50% more premium seating and 50%+ more Cargo Volume.


So basically NMA Small is a 752 and NMA Large is a 753, each with about 1000nm more range. I see no point in going to 7W. Might as well design the first major composite 6W and use fuselage for NSA.
 
QXAS
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:55 pm

ewt340 wrote:
QXAS wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

No, please don't shoved words into my mouth. I clearly said since we don't have a valid data from Boeing for the total sales of B737MAX8. Nobody could stated that B737MAX8 outsold A320neo. I make that conclusion according to the data provided by both Airbus and Boeing. Not opinion.
You are discrediting MAX7 which is understandable. But MAX9 and MAX10?

If all the unknown orders are for B737MAX8, then it would outsold A320neo by 11 frames!
Let me give you the number again the MAX8 have 2,614 confirmed orders + 1,588 Unknown variants (1,043 of those from unidentified customers) . While A320neo have 4,191 Confirmed orders.

If some airlines order 12 or more MAX9 or MAX10. Then A320neo outsold B737MAX8 by just 1 frame.

Now which one is more likely, my calculations on the fact that some airlines would probably order 12 or more MAX9 or MAX10 or your theory on how all the orders are for MAX8?
Clearly the theory I initially stated that the orders are distributed proportionally based on the known orderbook. All other options are extremes with very little basis. But that distribution still makes your original statement which was that 7M8 has outsold 320NEO since both were on the market is a “big fat LIE” an incorrect statement, one which you boldly claimed as fact.


By the same logic, any person out there who said that B737MAX8 has outsold A320neo is a liar. Because we have 0 evidence to suggest so.

Anybody claiming otherwise is a Liar. No?

All I have is the order book from both Airbus and Boeing. You could checked it yourself to make any sort of conclusions:

https://www.airbus.com/content/dam/corporate-topics/publications/backgrounders/Backgrounder-Airbus-Commercial-Aircraft-A320neo-Customers-list-EN.pdf
http://active.boeing.com/commercial/orders/displaystandardreport.cfm?cboCurrentModel=737&optReportType=AllModels&cboAllModel=737&ViewReportF=View+Report

I’ve looked at the orderbook for both aircraft. In fact that was the very first thing I did before replying in the first place. The Boeing document you linked does not differentiate models at all. It only says 5011 MAX orders.

To review, another poster stated that since both were available (December 13, 2011), 7M8 has outsold 320N. You said that statement was a “big fat LIE”.

Number of orders for each airplane:

A320NEO - 3153 orders since December 13, 2011
A321NEO - 2167 orders since December 13, 2011
737-8 - 2614 orders + up to 1588
737-9/10 - 741 orders + up to 1588
Unknown - 1588

First I’m going to calculate the differences in known orders as well as in total orders for the families.

A320NEO-737-8=539
A321NEO-737-9/10=1426
539+1426=1965
1965-1588=377 -> 320N/321N has outsold 737-8/9/10 by 377 units total since December 13, 2011.

Now I’m going to calculate the % of the unknown orderbook MAX 8 must command to outsell A320NEO. As well as the % of the known orderbook MAX 8 holds and allocate unknown orders accordingly.

540>539
540/1588=34% (percentage MAX 8 must command)
2614/(2614+741)=77.9% (percentage MAX 8 commands)
1588(.779)=1237

737 MAX 8 must command 34% of the unknowns to have outsold A320NEO. Of the 1588 unknowns, based on MAX 8 commanding 77.9% of known orders, 1237 of the unknowns are MAX 8.

1237>539 therefore MAX 8 has outsold 320NEO since December 13, 2011.

However lets assume that you are right and MAX 8 only commands 539 or less of the unknowns and the rest are for -9/10. I’ll calculate orders and difference for 737-9/10 vs A321NEO.

1588-539=1049
741+1049=1790 total MAX 9/10 orders

Now I’ll calculate the market share % for both A321NEO and 737-9/10 if this is the case.

1790+2167=3957 (Total Market)
2167/3957= 55% Market share for A321NEO
1790/3957=45% Market share for 737-9/10

So, either MAX 8 has outsold 320NEO since December 13, 2011 or -9/-10 have taken at the very least, 45% of the 737-9/10/321NEO market since December 13, 2011.

Take your pick.
I am NOT an employee of any airline or manufacturer. I speak for myself, not on the behalf of any company.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 9:01 pm

Swadian wrote:
morrisond wrote:
I wouldn't disagree with this thought. Hence why I think NMA is a lot smaller than some are expecting so they can reuse a lot of it for NSA and launch NSA a lot sooner than expected with entry into service 2028ish.

NMA- Small would be something like A321 Capacity plus 10%, and NMA Large - A321 Capacity +20-25%.

They will sell a lot more NMA's at +10% and +25% capacity over A321 vs an 8W at an 50-70% capacity increase.

Yes Airbus can build an 322 or 323 - but Boeing should have a production cost advantage and more revenue potential in a tight light 7W (only 25% more area than A321 cross section), with 50% more premium seating and 50%+ more Cargo Volume.


So basically NMA Small is a 752 and NMA Large is a 753, each with about 1000nm more range. I see no point in going to 7W. Might as well design the first major composite 6W and use fuselage for NSA.


I think many would agree the 753 was a stretch too far. Hence why 7W is needed - I would expect that there will be an Extra Long third Variant of the NMA at some point equivalent to the 787-10 in the 787 series.

The main point though is 50% more Premium Seats and 50% more cargo volume is hard to beat and why 7W might make a lot of sense.

Heck - if Airbus stretches the 220 which is 4W in the front Delta First (same as there A320's) that will be very hard to compete with in a 6W fuselage - 7W trumps that which would fit 2x2x2 Delta First.

Maybe the Boeing/Embraer E -series replacement plane is 5W. There are a lot of advantages to that in a short range aircraft.
 
Bradin
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 9:31 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Bradin wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

In terms of the profit. They gotta spent couple billions on the passengers variants, and then a little bit more billions for the freighter variants. The amount of money they spent on the passengers variants probably didn't paid off. Most people only counted the profits after manufacturing cost. But all the other expenses to keep the program alive for years and even decades plus wages could take big chunks of the profit they gain from the freighter variants. This is not counting the fact that -8f practically kill B747-400F.


I might be wrong but as I understood it, the costs were not as significant as we think it was. There are a lot of commonalities between the 747-8i ad 747-8f. If someone would like to correct me, please do because I am by no means an expert in airplane design and engineering.


Yeah of course, the one I'm talking about is the money they need to spent when they upgrade B747-400 to B747-8i. It's the first lengthened B747 they ever done. It's also being upgraded with partial fly-by-wire technology unlike B747-400. Also the delay for the -8i program cost around $1billion. They also do overhaul design to the wings. With some of the trailing edge of the wings made using composite materials which is pretty new for them. So the cost for B747-8i is pretty high.

Now, back to B737's replacement. What Boeing would need to look into is obviously the bottom line and try to prevent spending useless money that would ended up creating lackluster result. Instead of simple re-design and upgrade. They need something more radical. The void of B757-200 really hurt their market shares in narrow-body sector. The time is ticking for them to go to Airlines and created some buzz to make sure Airlines know some of the directions Boeing will go through. Otherwise, many airlines gonna plays it safe with Airbus.

Beside, the big rumor about the new-clean sheet for A32Xneo is looming now. With possibility of A350neo. And A330neo on autopilot. Airbus have some free time with their new move.
Boeing on the other hand, have B737MAX, B747-8, B787, and B777X on the table. They need to cut the fat out like Airbus did and focus on the next move. And it seems like B797 might not be the best solutions. B737's replacement might be their safe bet for now.



I think people overestimate the costs and complexities associated with the Boeing 747-8. Granted it was a not just a simple enlargement of 19 feet and there was a lot of new technologies and enhancements added since the Boeing 747-400, 1 billion dollars is nothing considering the list price of both iterations of Boeing 747-8 is just shy of half a billion dollars each. ($418.4 million for the 747-8i and $419.2 million for the 747-8f) - See: http://www.boeing.com/company/about-bca/#/prices. Even at 2.1 Billion dollars, I'm fairly certain Boeing more than broke even to pay costs and their R&D based on their models.

The lack of a 757 series replacement/void was created by the airline industry. Boeing tried to find additional airlines and they simply chose not to purchase them. Reflecting on it now, I think Boeing was spot on the size. They just had timings wrong. Now that there is a huge demand for them, Boeing and Airbus are trying to fill that void. The void in this space was not created by Boeing because they had the 757. No one wanted to buy it.

As to playing it safe with Airbus, I don't see any evidence of airlines playing it safe. To date:

A320neo sales: 6,526
737max sales: 5,011


I'm going to let rumors be that: rumors. Until it is formally offered and announced, it's purely speculation.


ewt340 wrote:
Bradin wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think Boeing better hurries. They studied so long they can nearly start over again. . Airlines won't wait.
Airbus isn't shy, poor or incapable & will just move ahead. https://youtu.be/u_LEfOKBfSA?t=19


While I agree Boeing does need to respond, they also need to respond properly. Making knee-jerk decisions is one of the most irresponsible decisions any business leader can make.

Airbus has had its fair share of knee-jerk decisions and it's caused a lot of friction between entities in the World Trade Organization as well as embarrassment for them.


Apart from A380. Their knee-jerk reaction worked though. Well at least at cornering the lower end market and stopping Boeing momentum with B777X. If the rumor is true, and Airbus could work on their clean sheet replacement, then situation would get reversed.

It would be like when Boeing came up with B787 and Airbus scattered around with A330neo and A350.


I'm not so certain their knee-jerk reactions did work. If anything, I think quite the opposite.

I think the A380, the original A350, and the A330 Neo are examples of knee jerk reactions that have gone horribly wrong. When we have an airline CEO saying the cost of flying two 787s is the same as flying one A380, it really put Airbus in a bad spot. The response by Airbus playing the A380, A350, A350XWB, and A330neo to me is an indicator that they were caught off guard and they're throwing everything on the wall to see what sticks. Thus far the A350XWB seems to be the only true success
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 9:32 pm

smartplane wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
The MAX8 is successfully holding its own with the A320neo. The MAX9 and MAX10 are being swamped by the A321neo. Without going into the weeds about whether or not the MAX8 has outsold the A320neo

737 replacement is more urgent than realised. MAX8 sales are being made, but true margins (after retrospective credits), have been crucified, partly underwritten by suppliers, who have taken margin cuts.

Marked capability deficiency for MAX9 & 10, as A321NEO margins remain greater than A320NEO, which on price alone, should make it easier for Boeing to compete.

The problem surely for both OEM's, is a 2019 clean sheet 737 or A320 won't meet the customer bar in terms of cost versus benefit expectations and minimums.

Since Boeing is making money hand over fist while shipping (and selling) record numbers of planes, and the 737 being by far their largest volume program, I fail to see any evidence for your assertions. The MAX8 is competitive with the A320neo; if they replace the larger 737s with the NMA they will be in an excellent position. At that point they can do the NSA or not; they will have the entire spectrum well covered.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:35 pm

SEPilot wrote:
smartplane wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
The MAX8 is successfully holding its own with the A320neo. The MAX9 and MAX10 are being swamped by the A321neo. Without going into the weeds about whether or not the MAX8 has outsold the A320neo

737 replacement is more urgent than realised. MAX8 sales are being made, but true margins (after retrospective credits), have been crucified, partly underwritten by suppliers, who have taken margin cuts.

Marked capability deficiency for MAX9 & 10, as A321NEO margins remain greater than A320NEO, which on price alone, should make it easier for Boeing to compete.

The problem surely for both OEM's, is a 2019 clean sheet 737 or A320 won't meet the customer bar in terms of cost versus benefit expectations and minimums.

Since Boeing is making money hand over fist while shipping (and selling) record numbers of planes, and the 737 being by far their largest volume program, I fail to see any evidence for your assertions. The MAX8 is competitive with the A320neo; if they replace the larger 737s with the NMA they will be in an excellent position. At that point they can do the NSA or not; they will have the entire spectrum well covered.

Boeing is making too much money. Where to invest it? On the 787 threads I laugh as Boeing is having to accelerate acquisitions to generate a rate of return on their cash. That includes investment in new aircraft.

I think Boeing will do a widebody:
1. As discussed before, obvious hole in the market for a light and low cost widebody with limited range.
2. Competes against A339 and A321xLR.

We'll see plenty if xLR orders. The xLR isn't well winged or engined for it's mission. :scratchchin:

We will find out at Paris.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
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