behramjee
Posts: 4931
Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2003 4:56 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:00 pm

DobboDobbo wrote:
behramjee wrote:
If VS have spare WB aircraft from W19 onwards out of MAN, I would suggest they study Manchester-Islamabad 4 times per week nonstop using an A333 or B789.

The p2p demand alone on this sector last year was 277,000 pax round trip and yields are average year round but very high between 15jun-15sep and 01dec-20jan. Cargo in the belly will be full year round in both directions too ie 10 tons each way.

It will also provide decent feed to its own and DLs TATL flying.


Subject to the rate the B789 availability improves (alleviation of engine issues) and A35K delivery, versus withdraw of the A346 / B744 there might be some slack in the fleet.

I think it is a matter of time before VS start flying east from MAN. DEL was speculated (around the time the A332s were acquired) and I had not considered Islamabad as a possibility.

However, if they do look east from MAN a higher priority might be BOM (in light of 9W’s predicament), DEL and BKK (the latter two being major unserved markets - I suspect larger than ISB?).

VS appear to be in expansion mode, but who knows what their plans really are - I don’t think many saw South America returning - so it’ll be interesting to see how they progress over the coming months and years.


Factually incorrect as MAN-ISB demand last year of 277,000 was higher than MAN-BKK + MAN-DEL + MAN-BOM combined. In fact MAN-ISB demand alone is higher than entire MAN-India.
 
DobboDobbo
Posts: 853
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:02 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:05 pm

behramjee wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
behramjee wrote:
If VS have spare WB aircraft from W19 onwards out of MAN, I would suggest they study Manchester-Islamabad 4 times per week nonstop using an A333 or B789.

The p2p demand alone on this sector last year was 277,000 pax round trip and yields are average year round but very high between 15jun-15sep and 01dec-20jan. Cargo in the belly will be full year round in both directions too ie 10 tons each way.

It will also provide decent feed to its own and DLs TATL flying.


Subject to the rate the B789 availability improves (alleviation of engine issues) and A35K delivery, versus withdraw of the A346 / B744 there might be some slack in the fleet.

I think it is a matter of time before VS start flying east from MAN. DEL was speculated (around the time the A332s were acquired) and I had not considered Islamabad as a possibility.

However, if they do look east from MAN a higher priority might be BOM (in light of 9W’s predicament), DEL and BKK (the latter two being major unserved markets - I suspect larger than ISB?).

VS appear to be in expansion mode, but who knows what their plans really are - I don’t think many saw South America returning - so it’ll be interesting to see how they progress over the coming months and years.


Factually incorrect as MAN-ISB demand last year of 277,000 was higher than MAN-BKK + MAN-DEL + MAN-BOM combined. In fact MAN-ISB demand alone is higher than entire MAN-India.



Thank you - that is surprising (or perhaps not given that MAN-ISB is served and MAN-DEL/BKK and MAN-BOM are not served or shortly to be not served). Are you able to share the data for BKK, DEL and BOM?

That being said, I'd expect to see VS serve a number of currently unserved routes (both East and Westbound) before it served Pakistan.
 
3AWM
Posts: 163
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2016 1:01 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:13 pm

I would say that the viability of VS connections to India somewhat depends on the relationship with Jet to capitalise on connections on each end and to sell Virgin flights with a Jet code. So a MAN India flight probably looks less likely now. Also Pakistan overfly issues are likely to hinder rather than help the issue.

If anything I would say it's more likely that VS would take on the LHR flights as the slots (that are leased from EY) will also potentially become available.
 
David_itl
Posts: 6354
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2001 7:39 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:54 pm

Yes there's practically zero demand for MAN to India to such an extent that both DEL and BOM listed MAN as a link they sought with something like 110,000 passengers combined going to those cities alone. Whether VS would actually see an opporrtinity is open to debate as they doubted they could work MAN-HKG with 90,000 passengers prior to any non-stop route started. 4 years later CX carry 50% more passrngers han that.
 
DobboDobbo
Posts: 853
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:02 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:19 pm

3AWM is saying is that it the MAN-India market is less attractive for VS if they have no partner in India (which assumes 9W collapse) and/or if Pakistan airspace remains closed (which means a longer flight time).

What 3AWM is not acknowledging is that Pakistan airspace is unlikely to remain closed in perpuity, that if 9W collapse VS (also DL, AF, KL) would be free to find another Indian partner, and also the size of the MAN-India market (which is one of the largest in Europe outside of London).

There is nothing unreasonable about his comments (which are fair) but they highlight the negatives whilst ignoring the positives - which is indicative as to the mindset.
 
EddieDude
Posts: 6969
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2003 10:19 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:21 pm

As much as I would love to see VS land at MEX, I am not counting on it. VS could simply codeshare on AM and cover that route by doing so.

With respect to Canada, I think VS could try to return. I believe AC and BA have the market covered, but there is certainly room for more competitors as WestJet has demonstrated (YYC-LGW 789). Perhaps VS and WS could cooperate. It would be great if VS operated to YYZ with WS's support (currently WS flies 763ERs without a proper business class). Maybe that way WS could do something else with the 763ERs... like get rid of them,

While we are on the subject of new routes, VS' CEO mentioned that if HND slots become available, they would definitely consider resuming service to Tokyo. Any information on the HND situation?
Upcoming flights:
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3AWM
Posts: 163
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2016 1:01 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:33 pm

DobboDobbo wrote:
3AWM is saying is that it the MAN-India market is less attractive for VS if they have no partner in India (which assumes 9W collapse) and/or if Pakistan airspace remains closed (which means a longer flight time).

What 3AWM is not acknowledging is that Pakistan airspace is unlikely to remain closed in perpuity, that if 9W collapse VS (also DL, AF, KL) would be free to find another Indian partner, and also the size of the MAN-India market (which is one of the largest in Europe outside of London).

There is nothing unreasonable about his comments (which are fair) but they highlight the negatives whilst ignoring the positives - which is indicative as to the mindset.


Agreed, I am realistic about the chances of VS opening a route between MAN and India in the near future in light of the current situation.
 
SeanM1997
Posts: 259
Joined: Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:27 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:46 pm

EddieDude wrote:
As much as I would love to see VS land at MEX, I am not counting on it. VS could simply codeshare on AM and cover that route by doing so.

With respect to Canada, I think VS could try to return. I believe AC and BA have the market covered, but there is certainly room for more competitors as WestJet has demonstrated (YYC-LGW 789). Perhaps VS and WS could cooperate. It would be great if VS operated to YYZ with WS's support (currently WS flies 763ERs without a proper business class). Maybe that way WS could do something else with the 763ERs... like get rid of them,

While we are on the subject of new routes, VS' CEO mentioned that if HND slots become available, they would definitely consider resuming service to Tokyo. Any information on the HND situation?


Do you have a source for this information?
 
DobboDobbo
Posts: 853
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:02 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:50 pm

3AWM wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
3AWM is saying is that it the MAN-India market is less attractive for VS if they have no partner in India (which assumes 9W collapse) and/or if Pakistan airspace remains closed (which means a longer flight time).

What 3AWM is not acknowledging is that Pakistan airspace is unlikely to remain closed in perpuity, that if 9W collapse VS (also DL, AF, KL) would be free to find another Indian partner, and also the size of the MAN-India market (which is one of the largest in Europe outside of London).

There is nothing unreasonable about his comments (which are fair) but they highlight the negatives whilst ignoring the positives - which is indicative as to the mindset.


Agreed, I am realistic about the chances of VS opening a route between MAN and India in the near future in light of the current situation.


Many thanks for the clarification.

I agree that the status of Jet’s slots at LHR will be interesting to follow if 9W collapses, which at this point in time looks like a distinct possibility.
 
Cunard
Posts: 2390
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2016 6:45 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:29 am

EddieDude wrote:
As much as I would love to see VS land at MEX, I am not counting on it. VS could simply codeshare on AM and cover that route by doing so.

With respect to Canada, I think VS could try to return. I believe AC and BA have the market covered, but there is certainly room for more competitors as WestJet has demonstrated (YYC-LGW 789). Perhaps VS and WS could cooperate. It would be great if VS operated to YYZ with WS's support (currently WS flies 763ERs without a proper business class). Maybe that way WS could do something else with the 763ERs... like get rid of them,

While we are on the subject of new routes, VS' CEO mentioned that if HND slots become available, they would definitely consider resuming service to Tokyo. Any information on the HND situation?


Your forgetting Air Transat which would make it four airlines currently serving the London market, I think it would be pushing it for a fifth carrier to enter the market.

With Westjet being a fairly recent entrant on the Canadian-London market I think that it's just pushing it's limit as far as capacity is concerned and VS would find it very difficult to gain market share which was the problem with their recent Vancouver route and one of reasons it was cancelled.

Prior to receiving their first B789's Virgin had made an official statement that they had gained slots at Tokyo Haneda Airport and that LHR to HND would be the first route for their incoming B789.

As we've seen Virgin Atlantic eventually pulled out of the Tokyo market altogether and I think (not 100% sure) but LHR to NRT was cancelled shortly before VS received their first B789's.

But I've not seen or read anything recently regarding VS looking into returning to Tokyo.

As 'my real namesake' Sean points out do you have a source for this!

Obviously it would be great to see VS restart Tokyo as demand is growing between the United Kingdom and Japan and especially with the Olympic Games being held in the country in 2020.
94 Countries, 327 Destinations Worldwide, 32 Airlines, 29 Aircraft Types, 182 Airports, 335 Flights.
 
nomorerjs
Posts: 876
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 10:24 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:00 am

braniff2hav wrote:
I could definitely see AZ serving ATL, MSP and maybe DTW seasonally.

Ages ago AZ was to announce IAH service and regretfully it never happened -- they they hooked up with Skyteam.


Not with DL flying the route.

FCO is extremely seasonal as mentioned, but non-JFK DL hubs have enough service.

Yes, the fan club wants the tail on their belt, but it’s not happening.
 
Cunard
Posts: 2390
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2016 6:45 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:29 am

Nomorerjs

I totally agree with you regarding AZ not serving ATL, DTW and MSP, totally wishful thinking on behalf of the poster!

But this isn't aimed at you personally but after reading the entire thread as well as contributing to it I've just realised that not much emphasis has been made on the topic regarding Alitalia.

Shouldn't this thread be split as the majority of the discussion has been regarding Virgin Atlantic Airways and not necessarily Alitalia.

The title of the thread is

VIRGIN ATLANTIC AND ALITALIA NEW EXPANSIONS

As interesting as this thread is but I question why do we really need have a thread about two totally different airlines and their individual expansion plans?
94 Countries, 327 Destinations Worldwide, 32 Airlines, 29 Aircraft Types, 182 Airports, 335 Flights.
 
IADFCO
Posts: 118
Joined: Sun May 22, 2016 4:20 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:49 am

AZ will start IAD-FCO in May, year round, five times a week. I have heard the first commercial today on the radio here in the Washington DC area. I don't think that this new service has been discussed in this thread yet, but it has in a couple of others. If they don't start it or cancel it after a few months I will be very grumpy (I'm almost an old man so unfortunately that would work). I'm tired of the lousy overpriced United service, which is only seasonal anyway. A bit of competition hopefully will help, even if it's from Alitalia.
 
EddieDude
Posts: 6969
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2003 10:19 am

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:13 pm

Cunard wrote:
Your forgetting Air Transat which would make it four airlines currently serving the London market, I think it would be pushing it for a fifth carrier to enter the market...

Prior to receiving their first B789's Virgin had made an official statement that they had gained slots at Tokyo Haneda Airport and that LHR to HND would be the first route for their incoming B789.

As we've seen Virgin Atlantic eventually pulled out of the Tokyo market altogether and I think (not 100% sure) but LHR to NRT was cancelled shortly before VS received their first B789's.

But I've not seen or read anything recently regarding VS looking into returning to Tokyo.

As 'my real namesake' Sean points out do you have a source for this!

You are right about Air Transat. How could I forget. I suppose we won't see YYZ or YVR any time soon then.

With respect to the Tokyo airport situation, unfortunately I could not find the link, but I am basing my comments on a video of an interview or a "town hall" meeting with Branson and Craig Kreeger (previous CEO who retired Dec. 31). It probably was following the announcement of the order for A350-1000s. Kreeger explained that NRT was cut because it was unprofitable and explained NRT is not as desirable as HND for travelers. He then mentioned that they would definitely reconsider flying their own metal to Tokyo if they were able to secure HND slots.
Upcoming flights:
May: AM MEX-CUN 73H (Y), AM CUN-MEX 73W (Y).
August: KL MEX-AMS 74M (J), KQ AMS-NBO 788 (J).

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