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Kilopond
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:26 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
I dont think they will wait for the MOM. I suggest they will go for the new A321


They could also take a mix of 321 derivates just as an interim solution now. All the MRO and spare parts business could be outcoured so that no big investments would be needed until the 797/NSA/NMA arrives a decade or so from today.

:D By the way, the best margin they can get for their fish is the Les Halles auction. This means KEF-CDG should be an important cargo route. :D And this can be done with an ordinary 321 which has bigger cargo holds than a 757.
 
WIederling
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:48 pm

Erebus wrote:
Revelation wrote:
scbriml wrote:
This order should go to Boeing, but Airbus might be able to level the playing field with a curve ball out of left field in the shape of the A321XLR.

Too many metaphors? :crazy:

That would be a real fluke! :biggrin:


Someone will flounder for sure. :white:


This will go to the sole supplier who has the right hardware.
Murphy is an optimist
 
A60Stock
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:12 pm

The A338 is a bit of a red herring, no?
Types flown: A319, A320, B734, B738, B744, B77W and E195.
Airports flown to/from: DUB, JFK, LGW, LHR, LIS, LTN, PDL, SEN and STN.
Airlines flown with: AA, BA, BD, BE, EI, and FR.
Next flights: W9 LTN - SVG - LTN
Home Airport: LHR
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:34 pm

Revelation wrote:
That's why they call it fishing instead of catching.

It's not something one can catch on a fly...they would need a harpoon to bring in something that big. By hook or by crook :!:


WIederling wrote:
This will go to the sole supplier who has the right hardware.

They could cast a wider net...sure...but couldn't they just reel those in :?:


A60Stock wrote:
The A338 is a bit of a red herring, no?


Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dq8FhR3U0AAAX7Q.jpg
Last edited by Devilfish on Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Noshow
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:38 pm

the best margin they can get for their fish is the Les Halles auction.

Hasn't Les Halles moved to Rungis a long time ago?
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:45 pm

Noshow wrote:
the best margin they can get for their fish is the Les Halles auction.

Hasn't Les Halles moved to Rungis a long time ago?

It's only been 50 years (1969)...
So, actually, the best flights would be KEF-ORY, with cheaper landing fees.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:54 pm

VS11 wrote:
MADPYRO wrote:
VS11 wrote:

The 777 might be bigger but the numbers could still work if acquired on the cheap. There will be lots of 777s hitting the market when BA, AA, UA start to retire them. (Unless AA and UA decide to use them as 767 replacement themselves).

I agree with the idea of cheaper 787s being an option down the line too.


The 777s being retired by BA will be around or almost 30 years old and will have no life left by then....


Nothing wrong with 30-year old planes but they don’t have to buy the oldest nor necessarily from BA. There are more than 500 777-200/ER built in the late 90s/early 2000s.


That's the same age as their current 763's, unless you're another believer in the 1988 EIS factor.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
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JannEejit
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:04 pm

If they go for a 777 will they be able to 'fillet' ? And despite their seemingly life long love affair with Boeing, surely there's other fish in the sea ? Ultimately I suppose there could be a plaice in the fleet for A & B, but I love the sound of an RB-211 overhead, even at my age when I'm hard of herring...
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:25 pm

This is following the Project Sunrise example in that it's asking both OEMs to do something they haven't yet committed to, but I agree with everyone else that it's directed primarily at Boeing.

I have a feeling there is a deal to be made for Boeing where it provides some assistance with 757 maintenance and refurbishment to keep the fleet in operation long enough to get NMAs into FI's hands without those durn A321neos coming on property. Also one wonders about the potential for increased range for the MAX with engine or airframe improvements; every 100 nm will help FI get more North American destinations in range.

lightsaber wrote:
This is a fish or cut bait message.


I see what you did there... :rotfl:
 
eaa3
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:06 pm

tealnz wrote:
No hint they're looking to change their business model (multiple routes, high frequency services hubbing at Reykjavik taking advantage of narrow-body economics...) Among carriers with mainly single-aisle fleets they're also unusual in needing 757-type range. Technically the 797 would be great - a bit more range, a bit more capacity. But can they get it at a cost that lets them maintain current fares? Doubt it. Plus there's the risk: Boeing will work to execute 797 introduction much better than the 787 but even so the FI board would have to factor in timetable slippage (eg for engines). FI are not really big enough to absorb that kind of risk. This takes us back to Airbus. On paper FI are a perfect candidate for the XLR - which, unlike the 321LR, will have useful hold capacity over and above luggage. And more range than the LR.



It would be interesting to see what kind of range a hypothetical XLR would have from KEF.
 
bennett123
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:13 pm

https://www.airfleets.net/ageflotte/Icelandair.htm

They have a current average age of 23.1, ranging from about 18 to about 28.

Unless they have had a lot of low utilization, I have doubts about how long this can be postponed.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Fri Feb 22, 2019 4:42 pm

seabosdca wrote:
I have a feeling there is a deal to be made for Boeing where it provides some assistance with 757 maintenance and refurbishment to keep the fleet in operation long enough to get NMAs into FI's hands without those durn A321neos coming on property. Also one wonders about the potential for increased range for the MAX with engine or airframe improvements; every 100 nm will help FI get more North American destinations in range.

Yes, with that kind of bait, they should be able to hook FI.
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seabosdca
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:01 pm

bennett123 wrote:
Unless they have had a lot of low utilization, I have doubts about how long this can be postponed.


Most of FI's 757 fleet has fairly low cycles, which tend to be the limiting factor for 757s. They fly longer routes and utilization isn't sky-high. They could keep at least some 757s going for another decade or so if they needed to, although the economics would get challenging by the end.
 
bennett123
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:28 pm

Given that some will need to be replaced sooner, and that they are a relatively small operator, there is IMO some urgency.

The other option is a partial replacement, with a second batch later.
 
N292UX
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:43 am

They'll replace the 757 with the 757MAX... I mean the 797 whenever it comes out.
 
JAAlbert
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:12 pm

Erebus wrote:
Revelation wrote:
scbriml wrote:
This order should go to Boeing, but Airbus might be able to level the playing field with a curve ball out of left field in the shape of the A321XLR.

Too many metaphors? :crazy:

That would be a real fluke! :biggrin:


Someone will flounder for sure. :white:


I'm no aviation expert, or fisherman, but the 777 or 338 in FI's fleet would be a fish out of water for sure.
 
wave46
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:24 pm

With the 737MAX coming into service, Icelandair now has the ability to move the 757s into lighter-duty service. The 737 can do the bulk of the routes, while the 757s can be saved for the routes they are needed for their legs.

Based on speculation, the 797/MOM looks to be the right size and have the right legs to replace the 757 and 767. But, if Boeing doesn't commit soon, they might discover that there are other fish in the sea for Icelandair.
 
anrec80
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:26 pm

A60Stock wrote:
The A338 is a bit of a red herring, no?


IMHO widebodies in general are too big for 300K island, even though it’s a trendy destination lately. A321Neo LR is as close to 757, as it gets. And on nearly all pf their routes, it will suffice. They need more capacity on some routes - they may as well add one more daily A321.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sat Feb 23, 2019 4:37 pm

Icelandair has been a strictly Boeing airline for a long time, nothing but Boeing was part of the discussion. Boeing did not exploit this situation, but seem to have offered always very good conditions to Icelandair regarding new frames or upgrades to older frames during the years.

Icelandair has been waiting for a while for Boeing to bring a 757/767 replacement and that does not mean a far bigger UHL capable frame.
Icelandair has not only to replace their fleet used on their network, but also the frames used on their charter/wet lease/leasing operation.
We talk about 31 757-200, 2 757-300 and 6 767-300ER, altogether nearly 40 frames.

The 797 should be the replacement frame Icelandair is looking for.

That Icelandair is considering Airbus frames is the big news, big news in a small country. It implies to me, that all is not well with the 797 in regards to Icelandair. Perhaps there are doubts if it really be launched or the specs are not what Icelandair is looking for.

Moving away from Boeing would be a big step for Icelandair. They do their own training, have their own flight simulators and run their own MRO.

If Icelandair goes for a mixed fleet, I assume they will keep the 737MAX, while moving to Airbus for the longer ranged, slightly bigger frames.

IMO if Icelandair starts buying some Airbus, it will either revert to Boeing in time, or they will after a while have an Airbus only fleet, going for single source again.
 
Lapplander800
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sat Feb 23, 2019 4:58 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Icelandair has been a strictly Boeing airline for a long time, nothing but Boeing was part of the discussion. Boeing did not exploit this situation, but seem to have offered always very good conditions to Icelandair regarding new frames or upgrades to older frames during the years.


When the MAX was purchased in 2013 a RFP was sent to Airbus as well. In fact during a long night of negotiation Airbus and Boeing were both at FI HQ fighting for the deal. Story goes that Boeing saved their order in the nick of time one February morning.

Before that, 15 minutes before the faithful 2008, Icelandair had four A330 freighters on order via a leasing company.
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... re-214229/

Before that, in the 1980s A320 was evaluated, along with MD-8x and the eventual 737-400.

Any sensibly run company will look at all options when making a capital commitment of this magnitude.

Leading into 737MAX negotiation;
https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... enge-78647
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:13 pm

SRQKEF wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
SRQKEF wrote:
The paper itself has more in-depth coverage, and there the 3 possible paths forward are explained further;

1. Icelandair orders the current A320neo family along with A321XLRs. All Boeing-aircraft, including the 737, would then be sold and FI proceeds as an Airbus-only airline.


Is this a realistic scenario? Who would buy their 757 fleet or are the planes old enough to be scrapped?


TF-ISZ, a 24 year old ex-AA 757, was the first FI 757 to be scrapped last month. As the age of the 757 fleet ranges from 16 to 29 years, I'd expect that some of the newer examples would have life in them as freighters while the older ones would definitely be scrapped.

However, I for one hope the type soldiers on in FI's fleet for many years to come! The most beautiful aircraft in the world IMO. :cloudnine:


The newly scraped 757-223 was 28 years old.

The scrapped 757-223 TF-ISZ, former AA N642AA, l/n 357, has a replacement in a slightly younger former AA frame N687AA, l/n 536 26 years old.
There are 14 former FI 757-200, 3 withdrawn from use/scrapped, 1 still operating as passenger frame, 9 converted to cargo, 1 delivered original as a cargo frame still in use.
After having in the last years added further 757 and having bought or replaced leased frames with owned frames, Icelandair is now replacing older 757 with newer 757.
 
jmmadrid
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:25 pm

wave46 wrote:
With the 737MAX coming into service, Icelandair now has the ability to move the 757s into lighter-duty service. The 737 can do the bulk of the routes, while the 757s can be saved for the routes they are needed for their legs.


Sure, such strategy would "buy them some time", but how efficient is it?

Remember they would be using a number of planes just half of the day (no flights to Europe for the 757s), and those planes would be sitting many hours on the tarmac at KEF. However, insurance, etc, would still need to be paid in full. It is quite possible that they would have a similar problem with the 737s, they would fly to Europe during the day but would be idle during the night, while 757s take over. Not good for aircraft utilisation. Also, not sure how it would work with crews and crew planning.

Could work as a very temporary stopgap, but what FI really need is a versatile plane they can fly as many hours per day as possible.
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:01 pm

This thread has become a feeding frenzy.

I actually think this may bait Boeing into doing something earlier rather than later. Icelandair's needs alone won't spur the MOM on, but we're basically looking at a drip-drip-drip of potential orders, large and small, going to Airbus and the various A321 versions if Boeing doesn't do something. Its fish or cut bait time. They're going to have to test the waters at some point or lose so many smallish orders for the MOM that they add up and make the business case even less sustainable. They tossed some chum in the water last year when they showed their MOM concept(s) to United and others, who were reportedly impressed. Okay, great. Now, its time to hook some orders and make something happen. Otherwise, Boeing won't be talking about the one that got away, but the many that got away.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:28 pm

Kilopond wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
I dont think they will wait for the MOM. I suggest they will go for the new A321


They could also take a mix of 321 derivates just as an interim solution now. All the MRO and spare parts business could be outcoured so that no big investments would be needed until the 797/NSA/NMA arrives a decade or so from today.

:D By the way, the best margin they can get for their fish is the Les Halles auction. This means KEF-CDG should be an important cargo route. :D And this can be done with an ordinary 321 which has bigger cargo holds than a 757.


CDG sees quite often the 767-300ER. That means up to 20 t cargo on that route.
 
wave46
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:48 pm

jmmadrid wrote:
wave46 wrote:
With the 737MAX coming into service, Icelandair now has the ability to move the 757s into lighter-duty service. The 737 can do the bulk of the routes, while the 757s can be saved for the routes they are needed for their legs.


Sure, such strategy would "buy them some time", but how efficient is it?

Remember they would be using a number of planes just half of the day (no flights to Europe for the 757s), and those planes would be sitting many hours on the tarmac at KEF. However, insurance, etc, would still need to be paid in full. It is quite possible that they would have a similar problem with the 737s, they would fly to Europe during the day but would be idle during the night, while 757s take over. Not good for aircraft utilisation. Also, not sure how it would work with crews and crew planning.

Could work as a very temporary stopgap, but what FI really need is a versatile plane they can fly as many hours per day as possible.


I was envisioning the 737MAX doing the bulk of Europe and eastern North America flying. It makes sense to utilize the newest aircraft at the highest levels possible. The 737 also covers the majority of Icelandair's routes. Use the 757s for longer missions to North America - saving hours and cycles on the frames.

As the 757 fleet ages, the number of hours per day would decline. There's certainly a price to pay for idle aircraft, but it is far more cost-effective to idle paid-for 757s. Kind of like Delta does with their fleet - have a larger group of older aircraft that can increase utilization when required.

Icelandair also is quite seasonal, IIRC. So, reduce 757 flying during the low season and sub in 737s. When the big tourism/Europe travel surge happens in the spring/summer, up the 757 flying. The 737 acts as the base load coverage, while the 757 helps out with the peaks.

Someone (lightsaber?) mentioned that the optimal economics for new aircraft is >8-10 hrs a day usage. As the airframe ages, rotate into lower duty use. The oldest planes, use sparingly. What the optimal number is for each airline is dependent on the airline's route structure and customer profiles.
 
bennett123
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:29 pm

TF-ISZ has not been scrapped yet.
 
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SRQKEF
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:02 pm

bennett123 wrote:
TF-ISZ has not been scrapped yet.


It will be though, it's already at Kemble.
Nothing compares to taking off in an empty 757 with full thrust!
 
Lapplander800
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:08 pm

wave46 wrote:
I was envisioning the 737MAX doing the bulk of Europe and eastern North America flying. It makes sense to utilize the newest aircraft at the highest levels possible. The 737 also covers the majority of Icelandair's routes. Use the 757s for longer missions to North America - saving hours and cycles on the frames.

As the 757 fleet ages, the number of hours per day would .


I don't think it will be an issue running a 16 frame 737MAX subfleet in the summer with dual banks or to Europe.

It isn't always high season though. Right now though there are approximately 12 flights in the air between US-KEF;

JFK and BOS on a 767 seems to consistently be able to use the passenger capacity and freight. If it didn't it would be cheaper for FI flying something else they have.

IAD, ORD and EWR on 737MAX8. all currently active MAX frames. Financials are probably great on these nice long legs and a potential 18-20 hour use per day. My accountant would be proud of me.

YYZ on 757 (perhaps there isn't one today?). Could probably be a 737MAX if they had one.

TPA, MCO, DEN, SEA, YYR on 757 with frames parked for 22 hours at the outstation. Not an issue on a cheap frame. Yet harder to justify on something you really want spinning as much as possible to make morgage /lease payments and RoI. Also you probably can't make MAX do these anyway.

SFO on 767... because it kinda has to. Having said that they have thrown a 757 at it a few times non stop.

So... what are they going to do with all these MAXs during the lull season? With today's schedule they could use with a total of 4 to the US and possibly a small handful of afternoon flights (depending on the day) to Europe. Life sure was sweet for FI for the 15 years they only had one type of planes for everything.
Last edited by Lapplander800 on Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:20 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
Lapplander800
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:11 pm

Accidental double post
 
tealnz
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:55 am

Whew. We seem to be looking at all sorts of contortions to keep FI an all-Boeing operation. What's driving it? The romance of the 757? A feeling that A321s can't work in FI's route structure? An assumption FI management are more interested in preserving the Boeing relationship than optimising their fleet?

If you look at it as a conventional fleet selection exercise without the loopy stuff above it's hard to see how you could go past an A321XLR. 757-level capacity, greater range (4700nm nominal), lower OEW than the LR, more hold space than the LR, large global fleet...

The 797 is going to be an attractive aircraft but it's going to be pricey and will need lots of premium traffic to pay for itself. Plus it's years away. Even if it makes a 2025 in-service target with launch customers (anyone want to bet on that?) FI is hardly going to want to be one of the airlines that debugs it. Hard to imagine the company accountant will be advising them they should keep the 757s flying for another decade...
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:41 am

Lapplander800 wrote:
TPA, MCO, DEN, SEA, YYR on 757 with frames parked for 22 hours at the outstation. Not an issue on a cheap frame. Yet harder to justify on something you really want spinning as much as possible to make morgage /lease payments and RoI.


This is an important point and one both OEMs (and FI) will need to think carefully about. It's hard to change without fundamentally altering FI's network structure. It will be expensive for FI to have this sort of low-utilization pattern with brand-new aircraft whether they are A321XLRs or 797s. For now, doing it with 757s may well be cheaper despite the fuel expense, although the maintenance expense (and customer service risk) associated with the 757 fleet will rise steadily over time.
 
Ryanair01
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:08 pm

This link is English https://airlinegeeks.com/2019/02/20/icelandair-ceo-and-cco-talk-hub-strategy-financial-position-and-boeings-nma/

In short it seems they want the NMA, but keeping too many 757s until NMA arrives is troublesome because the 757 costs too much to run. There's no perfect answer, hold onto inefficient 757 planes, or get A321s which are not an ideal long term solution, or get short term A321s and then long term NMA which sounds expensive.

I wonder why more MAX's for anything within range, coupled with some cheap 767s for anything that needs range isn't an option?

seabosdca wrote:
Lapplander800 wrote:
TPA, MCO, DEN, SEA, YYR on 757 with frames parked for 22 hours at the outstation. Not an issue on a cheap frame. Yet harder to justify on something you really want spinning as much as possible to make morgage /lease payments and RoI.


This is an important point and one both OEMs (and FI) will need to think carefully about. It's hard to change without fundamentally altering FI's network structure. It will be expensive for FI to have this sort of low-utilization pattern with brand-new aircraft whether they are A321XLRs or 797s. For now, doing it with 757s may well be cheaper despite the fuel expense, although the maintenance expense (and customer service risk) associated with the 757 fleet will rise steadily over time.


That business model has no future in FI's plans, which is why they need the new (from summer this year) dual bank hub model to work. There seems no reason to assume it won't, provided growth continues and the big transatlantic JVs don't get jittery enough to retaliate about capacity being added.
 
wave46
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:48 pm

tealnz wrote:
Whew. We seem to be looking at all sorts of contortions to keep FI an all-Boeing operation. What's driving it? The romance of the 757? A feeling that A321s can't work in FI's route structure? An assumption FI management are more interested in preserving the Boeing relationship than optimising their fleet?

If you look at it as a conventional fleet selection exercise without the loopy stuff above it's hard to see how you could go past an A321XLR. 757-level capacity, greater range (4700nm nominal), lower OEW than the LR, more hold space than the LR, large global fleet...

The 797 is going to be an attractive aircraft but it's going to be pricey and will need lots of premium traffic to pay for itself. Plus it's years away. Even if it makes a 2025 in-service target with launch customers (anyone want to bet on that?) FI is hardly going to want to be one of the airlines that debugs it. Hard to imagine the company accountant will be advising them they should keep the 757s flying for another decade...


I'm not sure about Icelandair's financial condition, so I can't speak to what their accountants will recommend. They did just splurge on an order of 737 MAX and I don't imagine they'll want to replace those in the short-term. I'm certain they will take a long, hard look at the A321XLR. They'd be foolish not to.

The 757s will have to be replaced at some point within the next decade. My recommendation (which Icelandair seems to be doing anyway) is to use the new 737 MAX as the workhorse of the fleet in the meantime to extend the life of the existing 757s. With that, they buy time to see how both the A321XLR and 797/MOM play out with respect to real-world operations.

Keep in mind that their 767s will have to be replaced at some point too. So, a single type might prove advantageous, if one aircraft can cover all the missions of the two they have right now doing those missions.

I imagine they'll be working the numbers hard in Reyjkavik.
 
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SRQKEF
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:05 pm

Ryanair01 wrote:
I wonder why more MAX's for anything within range, coupled with some cheap 767s for anything that needs range isn't an option?.


The 767 is simply too large for most of those niche long and thin routes (PDX, YEG, ANC, YVR, TPA). It might work on DEN, MCO and obviosly SEA and SFO but those other routes are important parts of the network. Plus, with the freight companies snapping up 767s left and right, resale value of any deceng 767s is much higher than it was.
Nothing compares to taking off in an empty 757 with full thrust!
 
jmmadrid
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:38 pm

wave46 wrote:
They did just splurge on an order of 737 MAX and I don't imagine they'll want to replace those in the short-term. I'm certain they will take a long, hard look at the A321XLR. They'd be foolish not to.

The 757s will have to be replaced at some point within the next decade. My recommendation (which Icelandair seems to be doing anyway) is to use the new 737 MAX as the workhorse of the fleet in the meantime to extend the life of the existing 757s.


Well, if they want to keep their 737-MAXs for many many years and turn them into their workhouse it begs the question how many A321XLRs or Boeing's NMA will they really need?

If it's a modest number, they can't expect Boeing to go out of the way to please them.

I thought we were talking about a significant order (+/- 40) and a launch customer status.
 
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DrPaul
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sun Feb 24, 2019 6:14 pm

I'm a little surprised that nobody has -- at least not yet -- suggested that Boeing resurrect the 757 production line so that Icelandair can have some nice new ones.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sun Feb 24, 2019 6:17 pm

DrPaul wrote:
I'm a little surprised that nobody has -- at least not yet -- suggested that Boeing resurrect the 757 production line so that Icelandair can have some nice new ones.


They did, but their posts were deleted. Then they were taken outside and shot! :wink2:
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There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
wave46
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sun Feb 24, 2019 6:32 pm

jmmadrid wrote:

Well, if they want to keep their 737-MAXs for many many years and turn them into their workhouse it begs the question how many A321XLRs or Boeing's NMA will they really need?

If it's a modest number, they can't expect Boeing to go out of the way to please them.

I thought we were talking about a significant order (+/- 40) and a launch customer status.


I can see a handful of whatever aircraft they choose (say ~10-15), but Icelandair's niche has been narrowbody economics on routes that other airlines have to use widebodies. The 737MAX covers the bulk of the Icelandair's routes in both range and passenger capacity.

Outside of major airports (JFK/LHR/AMS/BOS) or far distances (Western USA/Canada), widebodies are too much capacity/capability and cost for Icelandair, especially during the low season.

I could see how Airbus might want to sell them the XLR as a gateway drug to a fleet of A320neos. Boeing might want to squelch that hope by offering them attractive terms on the 797.
 
strangeplanes
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sun Feb 24, 2019 6:41 pm

wave46 wrote:
jmmadrid wrote:

Well, if they want to keep their 737-MAXs for many many years and turn them into their workhouse it begs the question how many A321XLRs or Boeing's NMA will they really need?

If it's a modest number, they can't expect Boeing to go out of the way to please them.

I thought we were talking about a significant order (+/- 40) and a launch customer status.


I can see a handful of whatever aircraft they choose (say ~10-15), but Icelandair's niche has been narrowbody economics on routes that other airlines have to use widebodies. The 737MAX covers the bulk of the Icelandair's routes in both range and passenger capacity.

Outside of major airports (JFK/LHR/AMS/BOS) or far distances (Western USA/Canada), widebodies are too much capacity/capability and cost for Icelandair, especially during the low season.

I could see how Airbus might want to sell them the XLR as a gateway drug to a fleet of A320neos. Boeing might want to squelch that hope by offering them attractive terms on the 797.

Could FI push extra winter capacity to their new Cape Verde airline?
 
Lapplander800
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:52 pm

Ryanair01 wrote:
That business model has no future in FI's plans, which is why they need the new (from summer this year) dual bank hub model to work. There seems no reason to assume it won't, provided growth continues and the big transatlantic JVs don't get jittery enough to retaliate about capacity being added.


Agreed. The premise behind those long routes is having cheap frames to run them. As an airline you might be able to do this to a small handful of destinations, but FI has gotten very heavily slanted towards them in the Americas. A round trip to to Seattle is roughly a 36hours for a frame which could possibly have done 3 round trips to Europe in the same amount of time.

The dual bank operation starts around May 15th and goes back to classic operations four months later around September 15th, presumably for the following 8 months until it gets started again for S20.

Perhaps they will try to stretch it into the shoulder periods yet we can most likely forget about it ever running Jan-March. It is quite an investment to run dual banks outside of high season. Unlike wingtip to wingtip flying where you can simply cancel the second flight if demand is soft a second bank needs a critical amount of connectivity to run efficiently.
 
jmmadrid
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:57 pm

wave46 wrote:

I can see a handful of whatever aircraft they choose (say ~10-15), but Icelandair's niche has been narrowbody economics on routes that other airlines have to use widebodies. The 737MAX covers the bulk of the Icelandair's routes in both range and passenger capacity.

Outside of major airports (JFK/LHR/AMS/BOS) or far distances (Western USA/Canada), widebodies are too much capacity/capability and cost for Icelandair, especially during the low season.


Explained like this (more range please but no more capacity, thank you) looks like a stalemate.

I see it from a different perspective:

1. The 737 MAX carries less passengers than the 757s. (Not sure about cargo though, let's not forget about the fish). It's not the perfect plane for all their routes, but was probably a compromise back then, when they had no other option. However, I'm almost sure that they would rather have some extra capacity for "some" routes with a range inside the 737 MAX's capabilities, but no so much as to justify a WB. This means they most likely need a NB larger than a 737 MAX to replace them in some routes for capacity, not range.

2. They cannot fly aging 767s forever, they need to replace them too. In some missions it's about range, in others it's about capacity, in others it's about both. This is something that the 737 MAX will never be able to offer. Again, if they don't want to go WB (330 or 787) then they need the MOM or the Airbus 321 XLR.

3. They need to grow in 3 areas:
-Connection banks
-Destinations
-Capacity.
They cannot achieve this by reducing the overall number of seats in their fleet. If anything, they need more people landing at KEF ready to fill up the next bank.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:05 pm

Ryanair01 wrote:
This link is English https://airlinegeeks.com/2019/02/20/icelandair-ceo-and-cco-talk-hub-strategy-financial-position-and-boeings-nma/

In short it seems they want the NMA, but keeping too many 757s until NMA arrives is troublesome because the 757 costs too much to run. There's no perfect answer, hold onto inefficient 757 planes, or get A321s which are not an ideal long term solution, or get short term A321s and then long term NMA which sounds expensive.

I wonder why more MAX's for anything within range, coupled with some cheap 767s for anything that needs range isn't an option?

seabosdca wrote:
Lapplander800 wrote:
TPA, MCO, DEN, SEA, YYR on 757 with frames parked for 22 hours at the outstation. Not an issue on a cheap frame. Yet harder to justify on something you really want spinning as much as possible to make morgage /lease payments and RoI.


This is an important point and one both OEMs (and FI) will need to think carefully about. It's hard to change without fundamentally altering FI's network structure. It will be expensive for FI to have this sort of low-utilization pattern with brand-new aircraft whether they are A321XLRs or 797s. For now, doing it with 757s may well be cheaper despite the fuel expense, although the maintenance expense (and customer service risk) associated with the 757 fleet will rise steadily over time.


That business model has no future in FI's plans, which is why they need the new (from summer this year) dual bank hub model to work. There seems no reason to assume it won't, provided growth continues and the big transatlantic JVs don't get jittery enough to retaliate about capacity being added.


Could they buy the Xiamen 757's to cover the oldest in their fleet? What about TUI's?
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
wave46
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:14 pm

jmmadrid wrote:
Explained like this (more range please but no more capacity, thank you) looks like a stalemate.

I see it from a different perspective:

1. The 737 MAX carries less passengers than the 757s. (Not sure about cargo though, let's not forget about the fish). It's not the perfect plane for all their routes, but was probably a compromise back then, when they had no other option. However, I'm almost sure that they would rather have some extra capacity for "some" routes with a range inside the 737 MAX's capabilities, but no so much as to justify a WB. This means they most likely need a NB larger than a 737 MAX to replace them in some routes for capacity, not range.

2. They cannot fly aging 767s forever, they need to replace them too. In some missions it's about range, in others it's about capacity, in others it's about both. This is something that the 737 MAX will never be able to offer. Again, if they don't want to go WB (330 or 787) then they need the MOM or the Airbus 321 XLR.

3. They need to grow in 3 areas:
-Connection banks
-Destinations
-Capacity.
They cannot achieve this by reducing the overall number of seats in their fleet. If anything, they need more people landing at KEF ready to fill up the next bank.


Your analysis is quite valid.

There are a number of concerns that Icelandair has to consider before making a large commitment.

A few I can think of:
- What will WOW be doing - how will the new investment by Indigo partners change the dynamics of the competition?
- How will the Icelandic tourism market hold up in the next while? Will it keep growing? Has it peaked?
- What's the plan for improvements to Keflavik airport to address capacity issues?
- What will the A321XLR and MOM do to the transatlantic travel market for other operators? If the improved economics of the XLR/MOM undercut Icelandair's niche on foreign carriers, will passengers bypass KEF and take a direct flight?

Icelandair's small size compared to the big guys makes decisions like this all the more important. A larger airline can afford to make the occasional mistake with a purchase and still come out alright. A small airline - not so much.
 
MartijnNL
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:31 pm

American 767 wrote:
I know this topic is all about 757 replacement at Icelandair, but I hope they continue to keep those for years to come.

We all hope Icelandair will continue to operate the 757 for years to come. Icelandair = 757.

American 767 wrote:
I want to fly on an Icelandair 757 before the type gets phased out.

That should be doable. Maybe give it a try this year or in 2020? I would be annoyed to get a 737 instead of a 757. I boarded my first Icelandair 757 in 1997. At that time it might even have been a brand new one.
 
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NeBaNi
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:55 pm

jmmadrid wrote:
wave46 wrote:

I can see a handful of whatever aircraft they choose (say ~10-15), but Icelandair's niche has been narrowbody economics on routes that other airlines have to use widebodies. The 737MAX covers the bulk of the Icelandair's routes in both range and passenger capacity.

Outside of major airports (JFK/LHR/AMS/BOS) or far distances (Western USA/Canada), widebodies are too much capacity/capability and cost for Icelandair, especially during the low season.


Explained like this (more range please but no more capacity, thank you) looks like a stalemate.

I see it from a different perspective:

1. The 737 MAX carries less passengers than the 757s. (Not sure about cargo though, let's not forget about the fish). It's not the perfect plane for all their routes, but was probably a compromise back then, when they had no other option. However, I'm almost sure that they would rather have some extra capacity for "some" routes with a range inside the 737 MAX's capabilities, but no so much as to justify a WB. This means they most likely need a NB larger than a 737 MAX to replace them in some routes for capacity, not range.

2. They cannot fly aging 767s forever, they need to replace them too. In some missions it's about range, in others it's about capacity, in others it's about both. This is something that the 737 MAX will never be able to offer. Again, if they don't want to go WB (330 or 787) then they need the MOM or the Airbus 321 XLR.

3. They need to grow in 3 areas:
-Connection banks
-Destinations
-Capacity.
They cannot achieve this by reducing the overall number of seats in their fleet. If anything, they need more people landing at KEF ready to fill up the next bank.


Re: your point #1. The difference in the Boeing lineup between when FI ordered the MAXes vs. now is that now, the MAX-10 exists, closing the passenger gap with the 757. If FI wanted more capacity, part of the order could be switched to the -10s if commonality were to be such an important factor.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:59 am

anrec80 wrote:
A60Stock wrote:
The A338 is a bit of a red herring, no?


IMHO widebodies in general are too big for 300K island, even though it’s a trendy destination lately. A321Neo LR is as close to 757, as it gets. And on nearly all pf their routes, it will suffice. They need more capacity on some routes - they may as well add one more daily A321.


On the subject of fish, the A321LR can’t carry any cargo. The three aux tanks take up so much space that bags have to be bulk loaded and there is no room leftover for cargo unless it is a low density configuration
 
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flee
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:22 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
anrec80 wrote:
A60Stock wrote:
The A338 is a bit of a red herring, no?

IMHO widebodies in general are too big for 300K island, even though it’s a trendy destination lately. A321Neo LR is as close to 757, as it gets. And on nearly all pf their routes, it will suffice. They need more capacity on some routes - they may as well add one more daily A321.

On the subject of fish, the A321LR can’t carry any cargo. The three aux tanks take up so much space that bags have to be bulk loaded and there is no room leftover for cargo unless it is a low density configuration

Airbus will probably suggest the A321XLR as space for two ACTs will no longer be needed.

As for wide bodies, WoW did order the A330Neo - imagine what would have happened had FI taken over their fleet?
 
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SRQKEF
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:42 am

NeBaNi wrote:
jmmadrid wrote:
wave46 wrote:

I can see a handful of whatever aircraft they choose (say ~10-15), but Icelandair's niche has been narrowbody economics on routes that other airlines have to use widebodies. The 737MAX covers the bulk of the Icelandair's routes in both range and passenger capacity.

Outside of major airports (JFK/LHR/AMS/BOS) or far distances (Western USA/Canada), widebodies are too much capacity/capability and cost for Icelandair, especially during the low season.


Explained like this (more range please but no more capacity, thank you) looks like a stalemate.

I see it from a different perspective:

1. The 737 MAX carries less passengers than the 757s. (Not sure about cargo though, let's not forget about the fish). It's not the perfect plane for all their routes, but was probably a compromise back then, when they had no other option. However, I'm almost sure that they would rather have some extra capacity for "some" routes with a range inside the 737 MAX's capabilities, but no so much as to justify a WB. This means they most likely need a NB larger than a 737 MAX to replace them in some routes for capacity, not range.

2. They cannot fly aging 767s forever, they need to replace them too. In some missions it's about range, in others it's about capacity, in others it's about both. This is something that the 737 MAX will never be able to offer. Again, if they don't want to go WB (330 or 787) then they need the MOM or the Airbus 321 XLR.

3. They need to grow in 3 areas:
-Connection banks
-Destinations
-Capacity.
They cannot achieve this by reducing the overall number of seats in their fleet. If anything, they need more people landing at KEF ready to fill up the next bank.


Re: your point #1. The difference in the Boeing lineup between when FI ordered the MAXes vs. now is that now, the MAX-10 exists, closing the passenger gap with the 757. If FI wanted more capacity, part of the order could be switched to the -10s if commonality were to be such an important factor.


The MAX10 is range restricted though.
Nothing compares to taking off in an empty 757 with full thrust!
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:55 am

In regards to belly cargo, the 797 should be very restricted if only build for LD3-45. That frame should have little belly space, because the fuselage should be rather short compared to the passenger numbers, with short cargo holds.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Icelandair negotiating with Boeing and Airbus for a 757 replacement

Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:57 am

SRQKEF wrote:
NeBaNi wrote:
jmmadrid wrote:

Explained like this (more range please but no more capacity, thank you) looks like a stalemate.

I see it from a different perspective:

1. The 737 MAX carries less passengers than the 757s. (Not sure about cargo though, let's not forget about the fish). It's not the perfect plane for all their routes, but was probably a compromise back then, when they had no other option. However, I'm almost sure that they would rather have some extra capacity for "some" routes with a range inside the 737 MAX's capabilities, but no so much as to justify a WB. This means they most likely need a NB larger than a 737 MAX to replace them in some routes for capacity, not range.

2. They cannot fly aging 767s forever, they need to replace them too. In some missions it's about range, in others it's about capacity, in others it's about both. This is something that the 737 MAX will never be able to offer. Again, if they don't want to go WB (330 or 787) then they need the MOM or the Airbus 321 XLR.

3. They need to grow in 3 areas:
-Connection banks
-Destinations
-Capacity.
They cannot achieve this by reducing the overall number of seats in their fleet. If anything, they need more people landing at KEF ready to fill up the next bank.


Re: your point #1. The difference in the Boeing lineup between when FI ordered the MAXes vs. now is that now, the MAX-10 exists, closing the passenger gap with the 757. If FI wanted more capacity, part of the order could be switched to the -10s if commonality were to be such an important factor.


The MAX10 is range restricted though.

And MTOW restricted. More passengers than a 737-9 with a similar MTOW.

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