Amiga500
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Tue Feb 26, 2019 3:13 pm

A more manageable (if not as high performance) solution could be TE extensions to the torque box. The extra wing area would be heavily biased toward the wing root for induced drag reasons anyway, so added wing bending moment would be minimised.

Maybe even LE extensions too as that would allow them to make some (very) minor adjustments to effective wing sweep angle for a (very) slightly higher cruise speed.


Would a full CFRP wing serve for a niche product such as A321XLR as a (very) useful test bed for getting manufacturing rates toward a level where A30X will need them to be? Possibly. Large investment though - Broughton should be very worried given all Brexit shenanigans.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Tue Feb 26, 2019 3:16 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Regarding the tools for composite wings and wait time for them, we do not know if Airbus has prepared for the possibility of a new A320 family wing, or even if there is some unused capacity in the A350/A400M wing production.


I've certainly heard nothing on the grapevine for any of tools, design or stress. I reckon I'd have got at least some rumblings.

Unless they have kept pre-PDR in house (somehow) and will only go outside for CDR & cert.
 
estorilm
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:36 pm

Surprised they jumped on this as fast as they did - though I can see the logic behind it (see below.)

I don't think it helps Boeing/NMA at all - sure they're still "nailing down the capacity/range specs" etc, but the bean counters NEED a guarantee that there will be huge market demand as its an expensive ground-up project with significant risks. To SOME degree, the LR and XLR are taking potential sales away. In ~7+ years when airlines get it, what did they lose in that time span? Could they have made do 4-5 years earlier with A32X commonality and large pricing advantages? What did Boeing lose in that segment during the dev time?

A huge concern for Boeing in ~7 years (when you might get an NMA) should be "what's the status of our 737 program now?"

Did they just abandon a golden opportunity and time frame to redesign their biggest cash cow, for a narrow-market aircraft with high risk? Once the first NMA flies, they're going to be DEEP in the hole waiting for the program to recoup money over the next decade. That's not a good position to be in. I doubt they'd immediately launch ANOTHER ground-up program for the 737 replacement when the NMA is 8-10 years from breaking even at that point. I'd certainly hope (if they had to pick) that they would return to their roots and create a state-of-the-art 737-type family.

In fact maybe I'm looking at this wrong - don't worry about the 32X vs. NMA, fast forward and worry about the 32X vs. the 737 by the time the NMA is done - that is NOT a pretty picture.

Maybe this is A forcing B's hand. Their answer for either will be "new wings" and earlier EIS regardless.

NMA would just = big wing / 322 first. 737 would = baby wings first, AND a 322 wing later (in same dev cycle/program) possibly shutting door on NMA. In the mean time, continue with the XLR and see if they bite?

It's kinda checkmate. The EIS/commonality/low risk angle is huge. Just my $.02
 
PaxPicti
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:43 pm

aerolimani wrote:
Image


As a little piece of trivia, both of the objects painted on the side of this plane, instantly recognisable as symbols of the two cities, and two of the most iconic structures on Earth, were designed by the same man... Gustave Eiffel. He designed the internal structure of the Statue Of Liberty, although not the exterior.

I wonder what he would have made of composite materials?
 
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reidar76
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:31 pm

speedygonzales wrote:
There's a whole bunch of possible configs of A321s with ACF listed on page 99 of the type certificate:
https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... Iss_38.pdf

In order of capacity:
149 pax / 3 FA - one overwing, narrow slides on forward and aft doors
169 pax / 4 FA - one overwing, wide slides on forward and aft doors
180 pax / 4 FA - two overwings, narrow slides on forward and aft doors
200 pax / 4 FA - two overwings, wide slides on forward and aft doors
200 pax / 4 FA - one overwing, mid door, narrow slides on forward and aft doors
204 pax / 5 FA - one overwing, mid door, narrow slides on forward and aft doors
224 pax / 5 FA - one overwing, mid door, wide slides on forward and aft doors
235 pax / 5 FA - two overwings, mid door, narrow slides on forward and aft doors
244 pax / 5 FA - two overwings, mid door, wide slides on forward and aft doors


Thank you for this list.

Max 200 pax and 4 FA is an excellent option for the A321LR and A321XLR. With only overwing exits, and the standard forward and aft doors, we have a very efficient use of cabin space compared to the older A321 with four pairs of doors.

The possibility of a A321XLR on a 10 hour flight, with 200 pax in a two class configuration and only 4 FA, must be somewhere in CASM heaven. Hard to beat for the NMA.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:22 pm

reidar76 wrote:
speedygonzales wrote:
There's a whole bunch of possible configs of A321s with ACF listed on page 99 of the type certificate:
https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/defaul ... Iss_38.pdf

In order of capacity:
149 pax / 3 FA - one overwing, narrow slides on forward and aft doors
169 pax / 4 FA - one overwing, wide slides on forward and aft doors
180 pax / 4 FA - two overwings, narrow slides on forward and aft doors
200 pax / 4 FA - two overwings, wide slides on forward and aft doors
200 pax / 4 FA - one overwing, mid door, narrow slides on forward and aft doors
204 pax / 5 FA - one overwing, mid door, narrow slides on forward and aft doors
224 pax / 5 FA - one overwing, mid door, wide slides on forward and aft doors
235 pax / 5 FA - two overwings, mid door, narrow slides on forward and aft doors
244 pax / 5 FA - two overwings, mid door, wide slides on forward and aft doors


Thank you for this list.

Max 200 pax and 4 FA is an excellent option for the A321LR and A321XLR. With only overwing exits, and the standard forward and aft doors, we have a very efficient use of cabin space compared to the older A321 with four pairs of doors.

The possibility of a A321XLR on a 10 hour flight, with 200 pax in a two class configuration and only 4 FA, must be somewhere in CASM heaven. Hard to beat for the NMA.


An A321 in that configuration would have a 12J/188Y configuration.
However, if it's a simple tankerage and MTOW increase, no way that they could carry 200 pax over 10 hours.

More like 160 pax over 9 hours reliably, matching the TATL B752's, but burning a ton per hour less.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:36 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
More like 160 pax over 9 hours reliably, matching the TATL B752's, but burning a ton per hour less.


The rumors reported by Flightglobal were 4700 nm with Airbus's reference configuration, which is around 185 passengers. That's a solid 10 hours and better than a 757-200 can do. With 200 passengers you'd be looking at somewhere between 9 and 9 1/2 hours.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:05 pm

Flightglobal may report what they want but it doesn't add up.
A 5 ton MTOW increase, minus a 2 ton OEW increase between engines, strengthening, modifications and additional fuel tank, unusable fuel, you're looking at a 1 hour range increase.
On a TATL mission, a 9 hour mission is 8.5 hours eastbound, 9.5 hours westbound.

200 pax over 10 hours would be above and way beyond the B752 with the highest gross weights.
The A321neo LR is on par with B752 in the Airbus brochures only, in real life missions they struggle to reach the same payload-ranges. This is why we don't see them replacing B752's on typical TATL missions yet. The range anxiety is there.

With the simple A321XLR Airbus can perhaps surpass the B752WL, but barely.

With an A322, they could however go well above and beyond the B752, going into B753 and even B767 replacement territory.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:33 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Flightglobal may report what they want but it doesn't add up.
A 5 ton MTOW increase, minus a 2 ton OEW increase between engines, strengthening, modifications and additional fuel tank, unusable fuel, you're looking at a 1 hour range increase.
On a TATL mission, a 9 hour mission is 8.5 hours eastbound, 9.5 hours westbound.


Why such a dramatic OEW increase in your calculations? OEW should be flat compared to the A321LR. The engines are the same. Structural reinforcement for the higher MTOW is offset by substitution of a larger integral center fuel tank for the heavier aux tanks the LR uses--the reason for creating the XLR in the first place. All of the MTOW increase should be usable for fuel.
 
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reidar76
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:48 am

seabosdca wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
More like 160 pax over 9 hours reliably, matching the TATL B752's, but burning a ton per hour less.


The rumors reported by Flightglobal were 4700 nm with Airbus's reference configuration, which is around 185 passengers. That's a solid 10 hours and better than a 757-200 can do. With 200 passengers you'd be looking at somewhere between 9 and 9 1/2 hours.


Currently, the only information we have about the performance of the A321LR and the A321XLR is what has been leaked to the press, information published by Airbus on their website, and press releases from airlines that have the A321LR on order.

We have two Scandinavian carriers that will receive the A321LR this year, Norwegian and Scandinavian Airlines. Scandinavian Airlines has not released information about the configuration of the A321LR, but Norwegian has said that they plan to configure the aircraft with 220 seats. Both companies have said that the plan is to operate the A321LR from the Scandinavian capitals (CPH, ARN, OSL) to North America, with Washington and Chicago mentioned, and to India, presumably New Deli and Mumbai. All these destinations are between 3500nm and 3700nm great-circle distance. Flying against the headwinds, also taking into consideration the fact that the A321LR has a slightly lower speed than a widebody, these flights will have a scheduled flight time between 9 and 10 hours on all these routes.

If the A321LR can do this, than the A321XLR should have more range at similar payload. The rumor is that the A321XLR will have a MTOW of 101 t. That is 4 t more than the A321LR. Most A321 have a MTOW of 89 or 93 t. With a similar payload onboard an A321XLR, the increase in MTOW allows tanking a lot more fuel. It will be interesting to see real world data when airlines start A321LR operations across both the North-Atlantic (Air Lingus, Air Transat, Norwegian, Scandinavian etc.) and South-Atlantic (TAP Portugal), this year.

I recon that the A321XLR will add at least 1 hour flight time, maybe 1 1/2 hour, over the A321LR at similar payload.
 
tealnz
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:49 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Flightglobal may report what they want but it doesn't add up.
A 5 ton MTOW increase, minus a 2 ton OEW increase between engines, strengthening, modifications and additional fuel tank, unusable fuel, you're looking at a 1 hour range increase.
On a TATL mission, a 9 hour mission is 8.5 hours eastbound, 9.5 hours westbound.

200 pax over 10 hours would be above and way beyond the B752 with the highest gross weights.
The A321neo LR is on par with B752 in the Airbus brochures only, in real life missions they struggle to reach the same payload-ranges. This is why we don't see them replacing B752's on typical TATL missions yet. The range anxiety is there.

With the simple A321XLR Airbus can perhaps surpass the B752WL, but barely.

With an A322, they could however go well above and beyond the B752, going into B753 and even B767 replacement territory.

I think you're in denial mate. The LR already has better range than the 752. The XLR is consistently being reported as giving 700nm more range.

How? OEW actually goes down (you take out three ACTs, plumbing, half the aft CLS). Unusable fuel goes down (single integral belly tank...) Strengthening needed for MTOW increase is minimal. New split wingtip treatment has been reported as worth another ~1% on fuel burn.
 
columba
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:57 pm

FlyRow wrote:
columba wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
I think A321XLR will be a Widebody/Super Hub killer.

Completely different approach Airbus had with the A380........


Oh god what terror, a company changed vision in 10/20 years... 20 years ago people thought they'd never needed a mobile phone and it was for business only, situations and opinions change, you can't keep hagllng a company for changing vision.


This tread just is getting a popcorn-fest with b vs a sterotypes... with very few factual statements, only single lined snears at one or another, it's sad.


Sorry, if my post - which was meant as a simply observation and nothing more - caused any irritations. I should have added, ""times change".
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:10 pm

Armodeen wrote:
This is a smart play by Airbus. If they can grab several hundred orders for a relatively low investment then they may torpedo the NMA business case before it ever gets approved for development.

I am not sure. IMO the best thing for Airbus would be, if Boeing continues to develop no new plane. Second best would be a 7 or 8 abreast MOM. Destroying the MOM business case with the XLR and thus triggering the NSA in a few years would be the worst for Airbus.
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
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Kindanew
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:41 pm

Has there been any reliable indication of what new features the XLR will have?
 
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Erebus
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Wed Feb 27, 2019 2:47 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
Armodeen wrote:
This is a smart play by Airbus. If they can grab several hundred orders for a relatively low investment then they may torpedo the NMA business case before it ever gets approved for development.

I am not sure. IMO the best thing for Airbus would be, if Boeing continues to develop no new plane. Second best would be a 7 or 8 abreast MOM. Destroying the MOM business case with the XLR and thus triggering the NSA in a few years would be the worst for Airbus.


IMO, I think Boeing going ahead with the NMA would be better for Airbus. The XLR can squeeze Boeing of some sales, but leaving them preoccupied pursuing a marginal business case can give Airbus a head start on other more lucrative projects. The talk of a re-engined A350 seems to fit that idea.
 
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keesje
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:06 pm

If Airbus launched a two type 101t NEO sub series, consisting of a A321XLR and A322, I would estimate 75% of sales going for a 24-30 seats stretched A322NEO and 25% for the niche smaller, XLR variant.

Image

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Mission-length-for-typical-short-to-medium-range-aircraft-with-their-respective-flight_fig6_259896245
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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reidar76
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:25 pm

columba wrote:
FlyRow wrote:
columba wrote:
Completely different approach Airbus had with the A380........

dtw2hyd wrote:
I think A321XLR will be a Widebody/Super Hub killer.


Oh god what terror, a company changed vision in 10/20 years... 20 years ago people thought they'd never needed a mobile phone and it was for business only, situations and opinions change, you can't keep hagllng a company for changing vision.


This tread just is getting a popcorn-fest with b vs a sterotypes... with very few factual statements, only single lined snears at one or another, it's sad.


Sorry, if my post - which was meant as a simply observation and nothing more - caused any irritations. I should have added, ""times change".


I don't think it will be a "hub killer" (your words), but it might be a hub extender. For example, for people living near a secondary airport in Europe, the A321 long range will enable a new direct connection to JFK. Therefore, JFK's reach as a hub is extended as it becomes your hub for connections in North America. Instead for traveling to your local hub for connections to SFO, you can now travel to JFK for connections to SFO.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:47 pm

keesje wrote:
If Airbus launched a two type 101t NEO sub series, consisting of a A321XLR and A322, I would estimate 75% of sales going for a 24-30 seats stretched A322NEO and 25% for the niche smaller, XLR variant.

Image

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Mission-length-for-typical-short-to-medium-range-aircraft-with-their-respective-flight_fig6_259896245


So according to this data, there is no market for medium to long range single aisle plane, which confirms Boeings take and going for a twin aisle.
 
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spinotter
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:01 pm

columba wrote:
FlyRow wrote:
columba wrote:
Completely different approach Airbus had with the A380........


Oh god what terror, a company changed vision in 10/20 years... 20 years ago people thought they'd never needed a mobile phone and it was for business only, situations and opinions change, you can't keep hagllng a company for changing vision.


This tread just is getting a popcorn-fest with b vs a sterotypes... with very few factual statements, only single lined snears at one or another, it's sad.


Sorry, if my post - which was meant as a simply observation and nothing more - caused any irritations. I should have added, ""times change".


You said nothing crass or judgmental. Merely true. And IMHO offense was taken when none was meant. People are strange sometimes.
 
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keesje
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:44 pm

seahawk wrote:
keesje wrote:
If Airbus launched a two type 101t NEO sub series, consisting of a A321XLR and A322, I would estimate 75% of sales going for a 24-30 seats stretched A322NEO and 25% for the niche smaller, XLR variant.

Image

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Mission-length-for-typical-short-to-medium-range-aircraft-with-their-respective-flight_fig6_259896245


So according to this data, there is no market for medium to long range single aisle plane, which confirms Boeings take and going for a twin aisle.


Single / twin aisle? Not mentioned. It says "Mission length for typical short-to-medium range aircraft with their respective flight frequencies".
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:49 pm

Revelation wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
Looks like the PIP is back on - job advert for "SSIPT Leader: ACC System PW1100G-JM NEO PIP" from last September.
https://jobs.utc.com/job/east-hartford/ ... 6/10419987

Only natural for it to have been shelved the last couple of years. Given that article refers to the 2% improvement as the same historic promise, I suspect there's been no shift, and the discrepancy is one of rounding or more favourable assumptions for marketing purposes.

Seems to decode to "sub system integrated product team lead for active clearance control sub system of PW1100G-JM NEO PIP" -- hope they found a qualified candidate...

I qualify. I'm serious. But divorced in California, I cannot move.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:13 pm

seabosdca wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Flightglobal may report what they want but it doesn't add up.
A 5 ton MTOW increase, minus a 2 ton OEW increase between engines, strengthening, modifications and additional fuel tank, unusable fuel, you're looking at a 1 hour range increase.
On a TATL mission, a 9 hour mission is 8.5 hours eastbound, 9.5 hours westbound.


Why such a dramatic OEW increase in your calculations? OEW should be flat compared to the A321LR. The engines are the same. Structural reinforcement for the higher MTOW is offset by substitution of a larger integral center fuel tank for the heavier aux tanks the LR uses--the reason for creating the XLR in the first place. All of the MTOW increase should be usable for fuel.


An auxiliary tank weighs quite a bit more than a regular ULD. That alone will weigh several hundreds kg.
Then you need pumps, pipes, sensors, brackets, all the mantra. another several hundred kg.
Then you have unsauble fuel which can be 3 digits.
Then you have the strengthening which will be another several hundreds of kg.
Engines could weigh more as material is added here and there. You dont increase thrust magically without significantly eroding margins.
2 tons may be conservative but it will not be insignificant.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:25 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
An auxiliary tank weighs quite a bit more than a regular ULD. That alone will weigh several hundreds kg.
Then you need pumps, pipes, sensors, brackets, all the mantra. another several hundred kg.
Then you have unsauble fuel which can be 3 digits.
Then you have the strengthening which will be another several hundreds of kg.
Engines could weigh more as material is added here and there. You dont increase thrust magically without significantly eroding margins.
2 tons may be conservative but it will not be insignificant.


I don't think you are understanding what the XLR is. It's a way to *remove* the aux tanks that the LR is using, and all their supporting hardware, by redesigning and expanding the center fuel tank. What you are describing is the weight penalty of the LR, which the XLR will address, while also increasing MTOW. Reread reidar76's post above.

Some strengthening for the increased MTOW will be necessary, but not any of the other heavy stuff you're describing. Extra cost for the engines will come in the form of reduced maintenance intervals, not new hardware.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:48 am

keesje wrote:
seahawk wrote:
keesje wrote:
If Airbus launched a two type 101t NEO sub series, consisting of a A321XLR and A322, I would estimate 75% of sales going for a 24-30 seats stretched A322NEO and 25% for the niche smaller, XLR variant.

Image

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Mission-length-for-typical-short-to-medium-range-aircraft-with-their-respective-flight_fig6_259896245


So according to this data, there is no market for medium to long range single aisle plane, which confirms Boeings take and going for a twin aisle.


Single / twin aisle? Not mentioned. It says "Mission length for typical short-to-medium range aircraft with their respective flight frequencies".


There are no twin aisle short to medium range aircraft; so this can only cover single aisle aircraft and according to this they are rarely used on longer routes. So the demand for an XLR is more than questionable.
 
Aviaponcho
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:18 am

lightsaber wrote:
Revelation wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
Looks like the PIP is back on - job advert for "SSIPT Leader: ACC System PW1100G-JM NEO PIP" from last September.
https://jobs.utc.com/job/east-hartford/ ... 6/10419987

Only natural for it to have been shelved the last couple of years. Given that article refers to the 2% improvement as the same historic promise, I suspect there's been no shift, and the discrepancy is one of rounding or more favourable assumptions for marketing purposes.

Seems to decode to "sub system integrated product team lead for active clearance control sub system of PW1100G-JM NEO PIP" -- hope they found a qualified candidate...

I qualify. I'm serious. But divorced in California, I cannot move.

Lightsaber


Finally PW1100G advantage PIP ? that seems to be foerever delayed (once announced in 2019 now for 2021 at the soonest)

Once found here: https://www.google.fr/url?sa=t&rct=j&q= ... 4oL57PqqCI
 
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keesje
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:31 am

seahawk wrote:
keesje wrote:
seahawk wrote:

So according to this data, there is no market for medium to long range single aisle plane, which confirms Boeings take and going for a twin aisle.


Single / twin aisle? Not mentioned. It says "Mission length for typical short-to-medium range aircraft with their respective flight frequencies".


There are no twin aisle short to medium range aircraft; so this can only cover single aisle aircraft and according to this they are rarely used on longer routes. So the demand for an XLR is more than questionable.


:confused: it looks as if you are desperately misinterpretating a graph to reach a pre determined illogical conclusion. (if there's no demand for XLR, would there be for an NMA?)
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
DartHerald
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:48 am

seahawk wrote:
keesje wrote:
seahawk wrote:

So according to this data, there is no market for medium to long range single aisle plane, which confirms Boeings take and going for a twin aisle.


Single / twin aisle? Not mentioned. It says "Mission length for typical short-to-medium range aircraft with their respective flight frequencies".


There are no twin aisle short to medium range aircraft; so this can only cover single aisle aircraft and according to this they are rarely used on longer routes. So the demand for an XLR is more than questionable.


Is that cause or effect, though? If there aren't really any longer ranged single aisles available as yet so they can't be used. Supporters of the 757 seem to be quite vociferous in their belief that this machine could be used more widely if only the production line were to be reopened. There certainly seems to be interest in the A321LR and if the XLR is a more capable plane there's no reason to believe that it will not be a success.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:43 pm

keesje wrote:
seahawk wrote:
keesje wrote:

Single / twin aisle? Not mentioned. It says "Mission length for typical short-to-medium range aircraft with their respective flight frequencies".


There are no twin aisle short to medium range aircraft; so this can only cover single aisle aircraft and according to this they are rarely used on longer routes. So the demand for an XLR is more than questionable.


:confused: it looks as if you are desperately misinterpretating a graph to reach a pre determined illogical conclusion. (if there's no demand for XLR, would there be for an NMA?)


I am just saying there is absolutely no valid historical data for that market segment, as it lay dormant since the production of the 767 non-ER, 757 and A310 ended. From the data you linked the logical conclusion is that the market for a longer ranged single aisle airliner should be a rather limited niche.
 
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:59 am

seahawk wrote:
keesje wrote:
seahawk wrote:

There are no twin aisle short to medium range aircraft; so this can only cover single aisle aircraft and according to this they are rarely used on longer routes. So the demand for an XLR is more than questionable.


:confused: it looks as if you are desperately misinterpretating a graph to reach a pre determined illogical conclusion. (if there's no demand for XLR, would there be for an NMA?)


I am just saying there is absolutely no valid historical data for that market segment, as it lay dormant since the production of the 767 non-ER, 757 and A310 ended. From the data you linked the logical conclusion is that the market for a longer ranged single aisle airliner should be a rather limited niche.


The demand for shorter ranged aircraft is far bigger anyway. That would support a strategy for not beefing up an NMA for real long flights, it you want to keep them light and sell a lot of them. Anyway looking at flights of an air category that hasn't been there (light, efficient long haul) and do a forecast based on that, would be odd, wouldn't it? Apart from that, the A321LR is gaining orders from airlines. SAS, Jetstar, Qatar and probably Jetblue as the latest ones. Apparently they see it as usefull extra tool in their network development.
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Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:44 pm

keesje wrote:
seahawk wrote:
keesje wrote:

:confused: it looks as if you are desperately misinterpretating a graph to reach a pre determined illogical conclusion. (if there's no demand for XLR, would there be for an NMA?)


I am just saying there is absolutely no valid historical data for that market segment, as it lay dormant since the production of the 767 non-ER, 757 and A310 ended. From the data you linked the logical conclusion is that the market for a longer ranged single aisle airliner should be a rather limited niche.


The demand for shorter ranged aircraft is far bigger anyway. That would support a strategy for not beefing up an NMA for real long flights, it you want to keep them light and sell a lot of them. Anyway looking at flights of an air category that hasn't been there (light, efficient long haul) and do a forecast based on that, would be odd, wouldn't it? Apart from that, the A321LR is gaining orders from airlines. SAS, Jetstar, Qatar and probably Jetblue as the latest ones. Apparently they see it as usefull extra tool in their network development.


I think they want to keep the NMA light so it is efficient for short haul. 787s and A330s are too big and heavy. They also cost a lot to build. An A322 should also be light, but isn’t that just a paper airplane that Airbus isn’t even talking about? I thought the A321LR and XLR were only weight and fuel storage upgrades.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Mar 04, 2019 2:54 pm

seahawk wrote:
keesje wrote:
seahawk wrote:

There are no twin aisle short to medium range aircraft; so this can only cover single aisle aircraft and according to this they are rarely used on longer routes. So the demand for an XLR is more than questionable.


:confused: it looks as if you are desperately misinterpretating a graph to reach a pre determined illogical conclusion. (if there's no demand for XLR, would there be for an NMA?)


I am just saying there is absolutely no valid historical data for that market segment, as it lay dormant since the production of the 767 non-ER, 757 and A310 ended. From the data you linked the logical conclusion is that the market for a longer ranged single aisle airliner should be a rather limited niche.


If there is absolutely no market for the a A321XLR, than there should be no market for a NMA or 797. Both going for an Application like the 757, 767, A310, A300 used on medium haul.
 
ewt340
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:12 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
keesje wrote:
seahawk wrote:

I am just saying there is absolutely no valid historical data for that market segment, as it lay dormant since the production of the 767 non-ER, 757 and A310 ended. From the data you linked the logical conclusion is that the market for a longer ranged single aisle airliner should be a rather limited niche.


The demand for shorter ranged aircraft is far bigger anyway. That would support a strategy for not beefing up an NMA for real long flights, it you want to keep them light and sell a lot of them. Anyway looking at flights of an air category that hasn't been there (light, efficient long haul) and do a forecast based on that, would be odd, wouldn't it? Apart from that, the A321LR is gaining orders from airlines. SAS, Jetstar, Qatar and probably Jetblue as the latest ones. Apparently they see it as usefull extra tool in their network development.


I think they want to keep the NMA light so it is efficient for short haul. 787s and A330s are too big and heavy. They also cost a lot to build. An A322 should also be light, but isn’t that just a paper airplane that Airbus isn’t even talking about? I thought the A321LR and XLR were only weight and fuel storage upgrades.


The problem of NMA is the fact that the capacity and the range doesn't sit between the aircraft that's been proven to be successful. Like B757-200 or B767-300ER.

While it would be extremely fuel efficient. It's too big to be used on majority of domestic network that demanded frequencies. It would be like putting A310 and B767-200 into domestic routes. It could work on some airlines and some routes. But it wouldn't be applicable too much on domestic operations for most airlines.

It main strength would be on regional flights, Southeast Asia, East Coast-Europe, Africa-Europe, and ME3. But the problem is, many of this flights could be covered by the cheaper and smaller A321LR/XLR and combo with B787 or A330. And adding new type for their operations would be too expensive for many airlines.

The problem would be how Boeing would convince many airlines to spend extra money to accommodate their operations for this NMA. Since the combo of B737MAX + B787. Or A321neo +A330neo/A350. Would be more logical to many airlines than to add another type.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:43 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
seahawk wrote:
keesje wrote:

:confused: it looks as if you are desperately misinterpretating a graph to reach a pre determined illogical conclusion. (if there's no demand for XLR, would there be for an NMA?)


I am just saying there is absolutely no valid historical data for that market segment, as it lay dormant since the production of the 767 non-ER, 757 and A310 ended. From the data you linked the logical conclusion is that the market for a longer ranged single aisle airliner should be a rather limited niche.


If there is absolutely no market for the a A321XLR, than there should be no market for a NMA or 797. Both going for an Application like the 757, 767, A310, A300 used on medium haul.


3 of the 4 mentioned were twin aisles, so maybe Boeing is on to something.
 
WIederling
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:16 pm

boerje wrote:
That page is dated 2002-02-19. So yes, early 2000s might be correct.

3000th A320 family aircraft was delivered in 2006
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/news/en ... craft.html
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tealnz
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:32 am

We’re seeing a number of XLR stories coming out of IATA AGM in Seoul. It has the feel of a concerted effort to set the scene for a formal announcement in Paris. On the specifics:

- Jetstar CEO is talking of 600nm additional range (over and above the LR) and using the XLR to replace 788s on routes from Cairns to various points in Japan

- Walsh is talking up the XLR as “definitely” a fit for Iberia and Aer Lingus and potentially attractive for BA and Level. He highlights not only range but “payload security” - i guess he doesn’t want to bump pax on bad wind days. Talks of using the aircraft to northern Brazil, Africa, US east coast.

- Flight Global reports the XLR is believed to incorporate “wing and weight upgrades”. Presumably a bit of wing strengthening for the higher MTOW. And Leeham at one point reported likely new wingtip treatment worth another ~1% on fuel burn.

At a guess this means Jetstar and IAG will be among those announcing orders in Paris.
 
c933103
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:54 am

keesje wrote:
If Airbus launched a two type 101t NEO sub series, consisting of a A321XLR and A322, I would estimate 75% of sales going for a 24-30 seats stretched A322NEO and 25% for the niche smaller, XLR variant.

Image

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Mission-length-for-typical-short-to-medium-range-aircraft-with-their-respective-flight_fig6_259896245

Then again, if you are an airlines flying 75% 1000km long routes and 25% 3000km routes, you wouldn't make your fleet out of 75% 1000km range aircraft and 25% 3000km range aircraft. It would cause lack of feasibility and affect aircraft utilization. Not to mention longer routes need more time thus more frames to fly
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tealnz
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:04 am

There’s no real hint so far whether an A322 is part of the mix for the XLR. The more relevant point is that an XLR across a range of routes will offer lower OEW (= higher payload), more hold capacity and “payload security” (ability to tank more fuel when needed).
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:53 am

tealnz wrote:
We’re seeing a number of XLR stories coming out of IATA AGM in Seoul. It has the feel of a concerted effort to set the scene for a formal announcement in Paris. On the specifics:

- Jetstar CEO is talking of 600nm additional range (over and above the LR) and using the XLR to replace 788s on routes from Cairns to various points in Japan

- Walsh is talking up the XLR as “definitely” a fit for Iberia and Aer Lingus and potentially attractive for BA and Level. He highlights not only range but “payload security” - i guess he doesn’t want to bump pax on bad wind days. Talks of using the aircraft to northern Brazil, Africa, US east coast.

- Flight Global reports the XLR is believed to incorporate “wing and weight upgrades”. Presumably a bit of wing strengthening for the higher MTOW. And Leeham at one point reported likely new wingtip treatment worth another ~1% on fuel burn.

At a guess this means Jetstar and IAG will be among those announcing orders in Paris.

I do believe Airbus will launch the A321XLR at Paris, and every day of the show at least one prominent launch customer. Jetstar and IAG may be among them.

I think the XLR is the aircraft the airlines really wanted from Airbus as 757 replacement with TA capabilities. Not the LR which IMO was a cheap half hearted attempt, certainly not the game changer some people said it was. But the XLR will IMO not not only do with the LR what the 737-900ER did to the 737-900, it will also make Boeing rethink their whole NMA idea. With the MAX now tarnishing the 737 family, Boeing now has to focus on a true 737 replacement. The business case is there. For a twin aisle NMA, I doubt it.
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flipdewaf
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:29 am

frigatebird wrote:
tealnz wrote:
We’re seeing a number of XLR stories coming out of IATA AGM in Seoul. It has the feel of a concerted effort to set the scene for a formal announcement in Paris. On the specifics:

- Jetstar CEO is talking of 600nm additional range (over and above the LR) and using the XLR to replace 788s on routes from Cairns to various points in Japan

- Walsh is talking up the XLR as “definitely” a fit for Iberia and Aer Lingus and potentially attractive for BA and Level. He highlights not only range but “payload security” - i guess he doesn’t want to bump pax on bad wind days. Talks of using the aircraft to northern Brazil, Africa, US east coast.

- Flight Global reports the XLR is believed to incorporate “wing and weight upgrades”. Presumably a bit of wing strengthening for the higher MTOW. And Leeham at one point reported likely new wingtip treatment worth another ~1% on fuel burn.

At a guess this means Jetstar and IAG will be among those announcing orders in Paris.

I do believe Airbus will launch the A321XLR at Paris, and every day of the show at least one prominent launch customer. Jetstar and IAG may be among them.

I think the XLR is the aircraft the airlines really wanted from Airbus as 757 replacement with TA capabilities. Not the LR which IMO was a cheap half hearted attempt, certainly not the game changer some people said it was. But the XLR will IMO not not only do with the LR what the 737-900ER did to the 737-900, it will also make Boeing rethink their whole NMA idea. With the MAX now tarnishing the 737 family, Boeing now has to focus on a true 737 replacement. The business case is there. For a twin aisle NMA, I doubt it.


I Agree, I think the LR was the "cheap" toe in the water to be able to gauge genuine interest and teh XLR is the better engineered solution. I also agree that there is a better business case for a 737 replacement than the NMA at this point. The big advantage that airbus has with regards tot he NMA is the 60+ produced per month and the cost of manufacture that this brings, where the 737 replacement can gain traction is not only being able to be produced at these sorts of volumes but be designed from the beginning to be produced at these volumes.

Fred
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tealnz
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:38 am

Airbus will want reasonable production volume for the new XLR pressure vessel. Will they drop the LR and just offer the standard neo and the XLR? Or is there still a market for a neo with one or two ACTs?
 
fcogafa
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:45 am

With multiple quotes about operators intending to replace current orders with the XLR it sounds like they are willing to wait for the quoted 2023-24 timescale before taking delivery, rather than getting the LR sooner
 
AirbusA322
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Jun 03, 2019 12:08 pm

Jetstar already converted 18x321N to 321LR. There is another 32 321neo’s left to be delivered by 2025 so fairly easy to convert without disrupting timeframes.

Cairns-NRT/KIX would free up 1
X787.

Not sure where they are planning on adding all the extra 787 capacity opening up.
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Jun 03, 2019 12:31 pm

AirbusA322 wrote:
Jetstar already converted 18x321N to 321LR. There is another 32 321neo’s left to be delivered by 2025 so fairly easy to convert without disrupting timeframes.

Cairns-NRT/KIX would free up 1
X787.

Not sure where they are planning on adding all the extra 787 capacity opening up.


I do tend to see JQ focusing their 788 fleet in MEL and SYD (potentially Badgery’s Creek when it opens) in the future.

Moving the CNS flights to A321XLR would likely be a better suited aircraft to meet demand year round, whilst creating operational efficiencies by centralising the 788 flights.

That would effectively leave OOL as the only remaining question mark, given that it still has NRT and soon ICN flights operated by 788. BNE is more than likely to go to the A321LR on its DPS flights.

MEL and SYD offer opportunities to expand service, especially to Vietnam and Thailand from their existing flights, but could well open up potential for new destinations also in Asia.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Jun 03, 2019 12:42 pm

May someone please provide a brief summary of what the latest A321XLR specs and design changes are rumoured to be..?
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keesje
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:19 pm

MoKa777 wrote:
May someone please provide a brief summary of what the latest A321XLR specs and design changes are rumoured to be..?


A range boost of 500-700NM over the A321LR (4000NM), revised fuel system, MTOW of 101t.

Capability for 200 seats on 3500-4000NM flights, year round reliably, at NB cost levels, opens up a string of TATL city pairs.

For LCC's, smaller airlines as well as legacy net work carriers.

For half the airlines it opens up opportunity's, for the other half it's threathening too..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
VSMUT
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:58 pm

AirbusA322 wrote:
Jetstar already converted 18x321N to 321LR. There is another 32 321neo’s left to be delivered by 2025 so fairly easy to convert without disrupting timeframes.

Cairns-NRT/KIX would free up 1
X787.

Not sure where they are planning on adding all the extra 787 capacity opening up.


A rumour I was told a month ago was that the A321XLR would replace the 787 entirely at JetStar. The 787 would then go to Qantas to replace the oldest A330s.

On an interesting side note, same source also said that the deal would include A321neos for Qantas, and the A380 cancellation fees and deposits would be used on an A350 order. If the first part is turning out to be true... :crossfingers:
 
dtwpilot225
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:37 pm

scbriml wrote:
LawAndOrder wrote:
Nope. I don't think they are interested in a Long range narrowbody, or they would have ordered atlest the LR when they ordered the NEO.


DL currently has 100 A321neo on order. I'd be very surprised if they weren't able to convert at least some to LR/XLR. Way too early to say definitively one way or the other.


They also have 100 options for the 321 neo their delivery schedule for the 100 firm orders is very aggressive so it should be interesting to see how it plays out
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:52 pm

keesje wrote:
MoKa777 wrote:
May someone please provide a brief summary of what the latest A321XLR specs and design changes are rumoured to be..?


A range boost of 500-700NM over the A321LR (4000NM), revised fuel system, MTOW of 101t.

Capability for 200 seats on 3500-4000NM flights, year round reliably, at NB cost levels, opens up a string of TATL city pairs.

For LCC's, smaller airlines as well as legacy net work carriers.

For half the airlines it opens up opportunity's, for the other half it's threathening too..


Thank you Keesje, much appreciated.

I agree, it should open up many opportunities for airlines.
Never be proud. Always be grateful.
 
Checklist787
Posts: 178
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:37 am

Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:26 pm

keesje wrote:
MoKa777 wrote:
May someone please provide a brief summary of what the latest A321XLR specs and design changes are rumoured to be..?


A range boost of 500-700NM over the A321LR (4000NM), revised fuel system, MTOW of 101t.

Capability for 200 seats on 3500-4000NM flights, year round reliably, at NB cost levels, opens up a string of TATL city pairs.

For LCC's, smaller airlines as well as legacy net work carriers.

For half the airlines it opens up opportunity's, for the other half it's threathening too..



Flying for a 4-5 hour mission with 200 single-class seats is scary. I do not like the A321neoLR.
Really it scares me ...
It's a bad Airbus joke? :crowded:
 
ShamrockBoi330
Posts: 77
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Re: Reuters: Airbus pencils in orders for new A321XLR jet.

Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:37 pm

Checklist787 wrote:
keesje wrote:
MoKa777 wrote:
May someone please provide a brief summary of what the latest A321XLR specs and design changes are rumoured to be..?


A range boost of 500-700NM over the A321LR (4000NM), revised fuel system, MTOW of 101t.

Capability for 200 seats on 3500-4000NM flights, year round reliably, at NB cost levels, opens up a string of TATL city pairs.

For LCC's, smaller airlines as well as legacy net work carriers.

For half the airlines it opens up opportunity's, for the other half it's threathening too..



Flying for a 4-5 hour mission with 200 single-class seats is scary. I do not like the A321neoLR.
Really it scares me ...
It's a bad Airbus joke? :crowded:


Reactions like this are what i dont understand, as how is this different than 6 or 7 hrs TA on a 757?

its not like they are reducing seat sizes and squeezing in 7 abreast!

i would actually rather fly 320LR over a 10 abreast 777 anyday across the pond!

what am i missing here?

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