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BoeingGuy
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:15 am

worldranger wrote:
ClubCX wrote:
The birds idea is an interesting one. We do have a lot of birds at this time of year. That whole area around Trinity Bay is a popular migration tract. Recently I've seen flocks of egrets, pelicans, turkey vultures, other waterfowl flying in formation. Presumably birds wouldn't have sufficient mass to smash through a jet window though.


Its not about the window, it’s about the damage a bird could do to pitot & AOA vane instruments on either side of the cockpit windows


Right, and as I noted in my other response flight crews are well trained in how to handle an Unreliable Airspeed scenario and required to perform critical parts of it from memory. Damaged pitot probes on one side of the airplane would potentially cause erroneous Airspeed indications or stickshaker on one side. They would immediately get EICAS messages such as AIRSPEED DISAGREE and are trained to handle such.

The 767 doesn’t have the sophisticated “voting” in the Air Data System that the 777 and 787. They take the onside inputs for the onside displays. You could source select the other side input if you suspect your side is bad.

In an AIRSPEED DISAGREE situation, the crew would compare both sides and the ISFD and determine which seems correct. Ground Speed display is accurate.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:16 am

yes... there's a mic button. the pilots were busy with higher priorities.
 
ryanov
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:23 am

Re: "pilots are trained," yes, all sorts of professions are trained for all sorts of things and then don't always do what they are trained to do. There have been many aircraft accidents that could have been prevented by preexisting training. Humans are human.
Last edited by ryanov on Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
log0008
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:24 am

MartijnNL wrote:
OB1504 wrote:
In a loss of control situation? No. If you can't aviate, you're sure as hell not able to communicate.

I thought a pilot only has to press a button on the control stick, which he already holds in his hand while flying manually, before he can speak in the microphone of his headset, which is already in front of his mouth? Is this not the case?


Its not about pushing the button, its about taking the time to speak, during an emergency in a multi crew aircraft communicating within the cockpit is vital to work out what is going on and taking action, such as running checklists. If I'm diving towards the ground I want to save myself, my passengers and my plane - i couldn't give two hoots where atc know or not, what can they do?

Also lets just consider that this dive took 20 seconds, take a couple of seconds to react and relise what is happening, by that time you wouldn't even have time to make a mayday call.
Last edited by log0008 on Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:26 am

The Unreliable Airspeed training is why I think there was also control surface damage. The pilots can sort out the UnrelAS, esp. after the publicity from Lion Air... but if the elevator and/or horizontal stab don't respond ....
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:26 am

InnsbruckFlyer wrote:
Some witnesses are reporting that the engines were surging as the aircraft dived toward the water. Could it really be pilot suicide? If it was in fact a rapid commanded descent with full or close to full power, it sure sounds like it. Here’s the article which mentions it: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/23/us/t ... index.html


First of all, untrained witnesses aren’t going to recognize what an engine surge or stall sounds like.

It was probably just change in sound due to the Doppler Effect.

Let’s hold our horses before we say the airplane was at full power. There isn’t an iota of evidence to suggest that other than dramatization. I bet they weren’t.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:30 am

WPvsMW wrote:
The Unreliable Airspeed training is why I think there was also control surface damage. The pilots can sort out the UnrelAS, esp. after the publicity from Lion Air... but if the elevator and/or horizontal stab don't respond ....


Name one scenario that can keep an airplane intact but render complete loss of control to both the stabizers and elevators.

There are a lot of “expert” theories on this thread that have no basis behind them. Now we are even up to suggesting it was pilot suicide.

Let’s let the experts figure out what happened.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:32 am

ryanov wrote:
Re: "pilots are trained," yes, all sorts of professions are trained for all sorts of things and then don't always do what they are trained to do. There have been many aircraft accidents that could have been prevented by preexisting training. Humans are human.


What do you know about Atlas Air’s training program or training requirements of 767 pilots in general?
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:34 am

B-17 or B-24. flak burst destroys elevators/horizontal.stab. enough birds = flak. F= MA
 
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cougar15
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:12 am

M deepest condolences to the family of the aviators involved. As a fellow freightdog and appreciating this to be an enthusiast platform, this thread has reached new lows in regards to the BS and armchair speculation. I thought the Lionair thread was bad, but this is a new low for this platform! Seldom read so much unqualified garbage with no knowledge of the airfreight or integrator industry in my life from quite a few posters on here! May the Airmen involved RIP!
some you lose, others you can´t win!
 
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FA9295
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:20 am

ryanov wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
People learn from discussion. Why even post the topic if we can’t discuss our thoughts, no matter how uneducated they may be? Frankly, some of the best threads have been those where a tragedy like this is discussed and hashed out in a respectful manner. I’ve learned so much from those threads.

It really doesn't seem like they do. Case in point? The cargo shift question, asked and answered at least 3 times already. Multiple people referencing Lauda Air, even though thrust reversers were redesigned long ago so it's theoretically impossible (which has been mentioned at least once). I could understand people who don't know much about aviation thinking all sorts of things could cause a nosedive, but the same questions over and over are tedious. Same with the "same as X accident? they were the same type of plane," even though no other part of the circumstances line up. It wouldn't be so hard to read the whole thread if there weren't so much of this stuff in it. :)

EDIT: Someone even asked the cargo shift question again between the post I quoted and this one.

This thread has become very long already. Questions are going to be asked many times here. Deal with it.
 
Redsand187
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:29 am

wjcandee wrote:
Redsand187 wrote:
It seems like the most probable issue would be a structural or major control surface failure. Whatever happened quick as just a couple minutes before the problem the pilot is having a normal conversation with ATC.

I'm not familiar with the conversion process, but this plane appears to have been converted in the last 2 years. Could there possibly have been a structural defect caused during the conversion process that got missed, covered, and not identified because it hasn't been due on a maintenance check yet?


My own thought is this: What happened was either an unsurvivable catastrophic failure, or a potentially-survivable failure that the crew was unable to diagnose and figure out the right response to in the minimal time they had, which will be debated ad nauseum. Either way, it is what it is.

As to the conversion, this was a BCF (Boeing Converted Freighter), which roughly 1/3 of the Amazon Air fleet at Atlas is. (The rest are BDSFs from IAI.) This one was converted at QPG. Almost always, the conversion house does very heavy maintenance at the time of conversion with additional inspection/maintenance done by the airline at around the same time. The goal is to give the aircraft another 20 years of service following the conversion. Sometimes, after conversion, the different duty that the airframe now sees reveals issues that may not have arisen at the previous airline. Also, little details and differences based on when-built and for-whom reveal themselves in interesting ways. (ATSG had an issue like this on one conversion, relating to flap deployment difficulty, that took a concerted effort to solve. Had to do with behavior of one version of actuator in long stage lengths in deep cold. However, that manifested shortly after conversion.) There have been so many 767s converted at this point that I wouldn't be placing any bets on that of itself being an issue.

My thought is not a design defect of the conversion, but a process failure. Something was cut more than it was supposed to be, or something wasn't properly riveted/bolted, then it was covered by paneling that typically wouldn't come off for inspection for another 5 years or whatever. Two years of fatigue on the weakened area that slipped passed QC at conversion finally caused an issue.
 
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:52 am

CriticalPoint wrote:
There are 6 things that bring down an aircraft in this manner:

1- load shift......doubt that based on the cargo.
2- Pitch trim runaway. Would be controllable IF they completed their immediate action items and turned off the STAB cutoff switches.
3- stall but it would have had to have been a deep stall (think Airfrance) to be unrecoverable.
4- loss of reliable airspeed creating a loss of control inflight.
5- catastrophic failure of the airframe
6- suicide or terrorism.

Everything else is manageable to a high degree.


Pretty good list. I'd add the birds and hail to the list, as suggested by other posters. Birds or hail alone wouldn't necessarily bring the airliner down, but lets say birds through the windshield or jammed in control or hail hammering parts of the control surfaces away are possible reasons for a crash.

I'd also add "initial manageable event followed by crew error" as a reason; those have been quite common in other accidents. No disrespect to anyone, by the way, just trying to list all the theoretical reasons that would result in this scenario.

Also, quick and severe fire is I think still a possibility, even if (as reported) Amazon tries to ship Lithium-ion battery products on ground transport.

And, a general "control failure" to cover for the rudder hardovers and the like. So the full list comes:

1- load shift
2- Pitch trim runaway, not handled in time
3- stall but it would have had to have been a deep stall (think Airfrance) to be unrecoverable.
4- loss of reliable airspeed creating a loss of control inflight.
5- catastrophic failure of the airframe
6- suicide or terrorism.
7- severe bird impact affecting pilots, controls, or structural integrity of the aircfraft
8- severe hail incident affecting pilots or controls
9- severe control mechanism failure
10- mismanagement of an initial, otherwise manageable issue
11- quickly spreading fire

Anyway, all of reasons on the list are pretty unlikely. Aviation is safe, so only the very rare events remain...
 
ltbewr
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:03 am

First of all, it is sad to see the loss of any number of human lives in any way including from an airliner's operation and a distant second for the loss of the aircraft itself. Many of us are here because we care about our fellow humans and how the failures of equipment or how other humans operate them. We also all hope that a PIC was able to have enough control to make sure there is a minimal or no loss of life on the ground but may be just wishful thinking or dumb luck. All of us here are concerned about how and want to have some idea of what happened in a very short time to apply corrections to reduce the risk of another loss of lives from a crash.

One question I have is about the FDR. It along with the CVR been recovered but that unless upgraded when converted to a freighter, the FDR may be an older model, as this a earlier production 767 so may have limited detail as to what when wrong vs. the recorders in newer models or later in production. Hopefully it will have enough sources of info and in turn data along from the CVR, ATC recordings, video cameras on the ground, from other pilots in their planes and from examination of the wreckage will help us determine what went wrong here.

It doesn't take much to take down airplane. A clogged pitot tube, microscopic flaws in a mechanical component, mx mistakes or lack of proper mx, poor CRM, misjudgment of weather, and many other factors alone or in series have led to crashes of aircraft. The flight seems to be at a proper speed and altitude until the last 45 seconds so there was a sudden loss of ability to stay in the air. One possible issue here is from proper action from the PIC. If a stall or loss of airspeed or lift, usually the first action seems to be to gain speed. That may be done by 'nosing down' and making other adjustments to control services to gain speed and in turn lift. At 7000 feet this plane may not just have had enough time and space to gain enough speed to gain lift or there was a mechanical or structural failure that prevented recovery.
 
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s.p.a.s.
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:46 am

AirlineCritic wrote:

And, a general "control failure" to cover for the rudder hardovers and the like. So the full list comes:

1- load shift
2- Pitch trim runaway, not handled in time
3- stall but it would have had to have been a deep stall (think Airfrance) to be unrecoverable.
4- loss of reliable airspeed creating a loss of control inflight.
5- catastrophic failure of the airframe
6- suicide or terrorism.
7- severe bird impact affecting pilots, controls, or structural integrity of the aircfraft
8- severe hail incident affecting pilots or controls
9- severe control mechanism failure
10- mismanagement of an initial, otherwise manageable issue
11- quickly spreading fire

Anyway, all of reasons on the list are pretty unlikely. Aviation is safe, so only the very rare events remain...


I would like to add another possibility, that is criminal action by one of the crew members/jumpseater. Minded, I don't want to disrespect or tarnish the memories of anyone, but it happened before, i.e. with FedEx in 1994 (FX705 IIRC). Hopefully, the investigation/DFDR/CVR will give us a different reason, but I am sure this line of thought will also be taken as a possibility. Being current on the 767, I can hardly imagine a technical reason bad enough to bring her down so quickly, with no time for reaction/correction by the crew, the airframe is very robust, with many redundancies built-in and that kind of catastrophic failure is a very rare circumstance.

May all RIP, a very sad day for the aviation and air freight community...
"ad astra per aspera"
 
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SEAxSANxBOS
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:58 am

s.p.a.s. wrote:
AirlineCritic wrote:

And, a general "control failure" to cover for the rudder hardovers and the like. So the full list comes:

1- load shift
2- Pitch trim runaway, not handled in time
3- stall but it would have had to have been a deep stall (think Airfrance) to be unrecoverable.
4- loss of reliable airspeed creating a loss of control inflight.
5- catastrophic failure of the airframe
6- suicide or terrorism.
7- severe bird impact affecting pilots, controls, or structural integrity of the aircfraft
8- severe hail incident affecting pilots or controls
9- severe control mechanism failure
10- mismanagement of an initial, otherwise manageable issue
11- quickly spreading fire

Anyway, all of reasons on the list are pretty unlikely. Aviation is safe, so only the very rare events remain...


I would like to add another possibility, that is criminal action by one of the crew members/jumpseater. Minded, I don't want to disrespect or tarnish the memories of anyone, but it happened before, i.e. with FedEx in 1994 (FX705 IIRC). Hopefully, the investigation/DFDR/CVR will give us a different reason, but I am sure this line of thought will also be taken as a possibility. Being current on the 767, I can hardly imagine a technical reason bad enough to bring her down so quickly, with no time for reaction/correction by the crew, the airframe is very robust, with many redundancies built-in and that kind of catastrophic failure is a very rare circumstance.

May all RIP, a very sad day for the aviation and air freight community...


I hate to think it, but that FedEx example is what I've been thinking as I read more about this. Also the National Airlines 744 crash out of Afghanistan due to cargo shift. Are two examples that keep coming to mind.
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worldranger
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:17 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
worldranger wrote:
ClubCX wrote:
The birds idea is an interesting one. We do have a lot of birds at this time of year. That whole area around Trinity Bay is a popular migration tract. Recently I've seen flocks of egrets, pelicans, turkey vultures, other waterfowl flying in formation. Presumably birds wouldn't have sufficient mass to smash through a jet window though.


Its not about the window, it’s about the damage a bird could do to pitot & AOA vane instruments on either side of the cockpit windows


Right, and as I noted in my other response flight crews are well trained in how to handle an Unreliable Airspeed scenario and required to perform critical parts of it from memory. Damaged pitot probes on one side of the airplane would potentially cause erroneous Airspeed indications or stickshaker on one side. They would immediately get EICAS messages such as AIRSPEED DISAGREE and are trained to handle such.

The 767 doesn’t have the sophisticated “voting” in the Air Data System that the 777 and 787. They take the onside inputs for the onside displays. You could source select the other side input if you suspect your side is bad.

In an AIRSPEED DISAGREE situation, the crew would compare both sides and the ISFD and determine which seems correct. Ground Speed display is accurate.


Point missed. Aircraft systems differentiation not the point. Startle effect on ability to react calmly to erroneous flight instruments - for what ever reason.
You write calmly about options available and well trained crew etc. All very well in the sim when you are on anticipatory mode, completely different on-line when actually confronted at low altitude- surely history has shown you that.
 
klm617
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:00 pm

MartijnNL wrote:
OB1504 wrote:
In a loss of control situation? No. If you can't aviate, you're sure as hell not able to communicate.

I thought a pilot only has to press a button on the control stick, which he already holds in his hand while flying manually, before he can speak in the microphone of his headset, which is already in front of his mouth? Is this not the case?


It has nothing to do with how easy it can be done. It has to do with diverting attention away from trying to solve and issue. You have seconds to deal with an upset and you have to think quickly and rationally and you need to have complete focus on getting the plane under control. So yes you need to focus ALL you attention at getting the bird under control and the last thing you're thinking of is contacting ATC to relay back some information that is not going to help you get the aircraft under control.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
barney captain
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:14 pm

Cargo shift? In level fight?

I'm just not seeing it.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
glideslope900
Posts: 128
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:22 pm

ltbewr wrote:
First of all, it is sad to see the loss of any number of human lives in any way including from an airliner's operation and a distant second for the loss of the aircraft itself. Many of us are here because we care about our fellow humans and how the failures of equipment or how other humans operate them. We also all hope that a PIC was able to have enough control to make sure there is a minimal or no loss of life on the ground but may be just wishful thinking or dumb luck. All of us here are concerned about how and want to have some idea of what happened in a very short time to apply corrections to reduce the risk of another loss of lives from a crash.

One question I have is about the FDR. It along with the CVR been recovered but that unless upgraded when converted to a freighter, the FDR may be an older model, as this a earlier production 767 so may have limited detail as to what when wrong vs. the recorders in newer models or later in production. Hopefully it will have enough sources of info and in turn data along from the CVR, ATC recordings, video cameras on the ground, from other pilots in their planes and from examination of the wreckage will help us determine what went wrong here.

It doesn't take much to take down airplane. A clogged pitot tube, microscopic flaws in a mechanical component, mx mistakes or lack of proper mx, poor CRM, misjudgment of weather, and many other factors alone or in series have led to crashes of aircraft. The flight seems to be at a proper speed and altitude until the last 45 seconds so there was a sudden loss of ability to stay in the air. One possible issue here is from proper action from the PIC. If a stall or loss of airspeed or lift, usually the first action seems to be to gain speed. That may be done by 'nosing down' and making other adjustments to control services to gain speed and in turn lift. At 7000 feet this plane may not just have had enough time and space to gain enough speed to gain lift or there was a mechanical or structural failure that prevented recovery.


7,000ft AGL should be enough to recover from a stall unless it was a botched recovery. Does the Flightaware data show a degradation of airspeed?

Can we confirm that they were in IMC? This would make managing any situation more difficult.
 
KICT
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:28 pm

It's my understanding that pilots flying cargo are not required to go through any TSA screening. They literally just walk on.

This true?
People are saying. Believe me.
 
Reddevil556
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:32 pm

barney captain wrote:
Cargo shift? In level fight?

I'm just not seeing it.


A 747F carrying a armored vehicles is a lot different than an Amazon package hauler. The National crash at Bagram is chilling to watch. My friend that flies for Atlas stated a while back he still can’t watch the video. Time will tell what brought this bird down.
Jumped out of: C130H, C130J, C17A, C212, CH47, and UH60. Bucket list: C160, A400, C2
 
Babyshark
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:38 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
There are 6 things that bring down an aircraft in this manner:

1- load shift......doubt that based on the cargo.
2- Pitch trim runaway. Would be controllable IF they completed their immediate action items and turned off the STAB cutoff switches.
3- stall but it would have had to have been a deep stall (think Airfrance) to be unrecoverable.
4- loss of reliable airspeed creating a loss of control inflight.
5- catastrophic failure of the airframe
6- suicide or terrorism.

.


7- midair

Happened to a 738 in Brazil that hit an EMB135BJ in cruise over the Amazon. The 738 lost its stab I believe, nosed over and crashed killing all aboard.

Not saying that’s what happened but to be fair it has happened.
 
Woodreau
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:42 pm

KICT wrote:
It's my understanding that pilots flying cargo are not required to go through any TSA screening. They literally just walk on.

This true?

Every fedex or UPS flight I’ve ridden as a passenger on, I’ve had to go through X-ray screening. It’s not Tsa but my bags have always been X-rayed and screened, when you connect at the hub, you get X-ray screened again. You travel with the flight crew from the operations building to the aircraft.

Flying passenger planes and going through a Tsa checkpoint in the passenger terminal I’ve gone months without going through an X-ray or having my bags searched.

So I would have to say, flying in a cargo freighter you get more security scrutiny than you do flying passenger airliners.
Last edited by Woodreau on Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
Posts: 267
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:43 pm

Something tells me we shouldn't underestimate bird strikes and/or hail in this case.

Turning to the pilots:

1. How experienced were they? Could all three of them have had their first day on a 767 yesterday?

2. Could this be political? I mean this as more of a symptom of Amazon cost cutting and high pressure corporate culture? Could this have contributed to cuts in training, cuts in maintenance? Pilot fatigue? (Maybe a piss poor job on the conversion as has been mentioned?) Can this be pinned directly on Amazon?

Conspiracy Hat On:

Has anyone here read "Night Fall" by Nelson DeMille? Anyone remember the ending of the book? Point is, some people will go to great lengths to make sure even a small package isn't delivered. What if Amazon distribution is up to something nefarious and this was a part of a cover up?
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klm617
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:47 pm

glideslope900 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
First of all, it is sad to see the loss of any number of human lives in any way including from an airliner's operation and a distant second for the loss of the aircraft itself. Many of us are here because we care about our fellow humans and how the failures of equipment or how other humans operate them. We also all hope that a PIC was able to have enough control to make sure there is a minimal or no loss of life on the ground but may be just wishful thinking or dumb luck. All of us here are concerned about how and want to have some idea of what happened in a very short time to apply corrections to reduce the risk of another loss of lives from a crash.

One question I have is about the FDR. It along with the CVR been recovered but that unless upgraded when converted to a freighter, the FDR may be an older model, as this a earlier production 767 so may have limited detail as to what when wrong vs. the recorders in newer models or later in production. Hopefully it will have enough sources of info and in turn data along from the CVR, ATC recordings, video cameras on the ground, from other pilots in their planes and from examination of the wreckage will help us determine what went wrong here.

It doesn't take much to take down airplane. A clogged pitot tube, microscopic flaws in a mechanical component, mx mistakes or lack of proper mx, poor CRM, misjudgment of weather, and many other factors alone or in series have led to crashes of aircraft. The flight seems to be at a proper speed and altitude until the last 45 seconds so there was a sudden loss of ability to stay in the air. One possible issue here is from proper action from the PIC. If a stall or loss of airspeed or lift, usually the first action seems to be to gain speed. That may be done by 'nosing down' and making other adjustments to control services to gain speed and in turn lift. At 7000 feet this plane may not just have had enough time and space to gain enough speed to gain lift or there was a mechanical or structural failure that prevented recovery.


7,000ft AGL should be enough to recover from a stall unless it was a botched recovery. Does the Flightaware data show a degradation of airspeed?

Can we confirm that they were in IMC? This would make managing any situation more difficult.


Not if your flying surfaces are damaged.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
KICT
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:47 pm

Woodreau wrote:
KICT wrote:
It's my understanding that pilots flying cargo are not required to go through any TSA screening. They literally just walk on.

This true?

Every fedex or UPS flight I’ve ridden as a passenger on, I’ve had to go through X-ray screening. It’s not Tsa but my bags have always been X-rayed and screened, when you connect at the hub, you get X-ray screened again. You travel with the flight crew from the operations building to the aircraft.

Flying passenger planes and going through a Tsa checkpoint in the passenger terminal I’ve gone months without going through an X-ray or having my bags searched.

So I would have to say, flying in a cargo freighter you get more security scrutiny than you do flying passenger airliners.

Interesting...
But what about Atlas?
People are saying. Believe me.
 
glideslope900
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:03 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Something tells me we shouldn't underestimate bird strikes and/or hail in this case.

Turning to the pilots:

1. How experienced were they? Could all three of them have had their first day on a 767 yesterday?

2. Could this be political? I mean this as more of a symptom of Amazon cost cutting and high pressure corporate culture? Could this have contributed to cuts in training, cuts in maintenance? Pilot fatigue? (Maybe a piss poor job on the conversion as has been mentioned?) Can this be pinned directly on Amazon?

Conspiracy Hat On:

Has anyone here read "Night Fall" by Nelson DeMille? Anyone remember the ending of the book? Point is, some people will go to great lengths to make sure even a small package isn't delivered. What if Amazon distribution is up to something nefarious and this was a part of a cover up?


It is highly unlikely that birds can bring down a 767... I don’t know why people keep mentioning it and same for hail. May cause dual engine flameout but a nosedive? That would be unprecedented. Even if the elevator was damaged, there is redundancy (such as split elevator which can be disconnected).

More likely event is stall and loss of control (spatial disorientation), elevator jam or malfunction, in flight breakup (which is also very unlikely).
 
glideslope900
Posts: 128
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:27 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:04 pm

klm617 wrote:
glideslope900 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
First of all, it is sad to see the loss of any number of human lives in any way including from an airliner's operation and a distant second for the loss of the aircraft itself. Many of us are here because we care about our fellow humans and how the failures of equipment or how other humans operate them. We also all hope that a PIC was able to have enough control to make sure there is a minimal or no loss of life on the ground but may be just wishful thinking or dumb luck. All of us here are concerned about how and want to have some idea of what happened in a very short time to apply corrections to reduce the risk of another loss of lives from a crash.

One question I have is about the FDR. It along with the CVR been recovered but that unless upgraded when converted to a freighter, the FDR may be an older model, as this a earlier production 767 so may have limited detail as to what when wrong vs. the recorders in newer models or later in production. Hopefully it will have enough sources of info and in turn data along from the CVR, ATC recordings, video cameras on the ground, from other pilots in their planes and from examination of the wreckage will help us determine what went wrong here.

It doesn't take much to take down airplane. A clogged pitot tube, microscopic flaws in a mechanical component, mx mistakes or lack of proper mx, poor CRM, misjudgment of weather, and many other factors alone or in series have led to crashes of aircraft. The flight seems to be at a proper speed and altitude until the last 45 seconds so there was a sudden loss of ability to stay in the air. One possible issue here is from proper action from the PIC. If a stall or loss of airspeed or lift, usually the first action seems to be to gain speed. That may be done by 'nosing down' and making other adjustments to control services to gain speed and in turn lift. At 7000 feet this plane may not just have had enough time and space to gain enough speed to gain lift or there was a mechanical or structural failure that prevented recovery.


7,000ft AGL should be enough to recover from a stall unless it was a botched recovery. Does the Flightaware data show a degradation of airspeed?

Can we confirm that they were in IMC? This would make managing any situation more difficult.


Not if your flying surfaces are damaged.


Then the cause would be flight control damage, not a stall...
 
KentB27
Posts: 476
Joined: Fri Oct 02, 2015 2:20 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:05 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
I walked out to a plane once, it returned in a dump truck. That’s life. Very sad a crew died, one just getting a ride somewhere important. I always surprised at how shocked people are at aviation accidents when the other day two children died in a car accident possibly due to their father’s irresponsible driving get hardly any notice even locally.

GF


People die in car crashes every single day. We haven't had a commercial airliner crash on US soil with fatalities since 2009. I can completely understand people not paying attention to something that happens daily, yet being shocked by something that hasn't happened in just over 10 years.
 
Whiplash6
Posts: 130
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2017 2:30 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:45 pm

KentB27 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
I walked out to a plane once, it returned in a dump truck. That’s life. Very sad a crew died, one just getting a ride somewhere important. I always surprised at how shocked people are at aviation accidents when the other day two children died in a car accident possibly due to their father’s irresponsible driving get hardly any notice even locally.

GF


People die in car crashes every single day. We haven't had a commercial airliner crash on US soil with fatalities since 2009. I can completely understand people not paying attention to something that happens daily, yet being shocked by something that hasn't happened in just over 10 years.


UPS 2013

But your point is taken.
 
BHM
Posts: 28
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 2:03 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:48 pm


People die in car crashes every single day. We haven't had a commercial airliner crash on US soil with fatalities since 2009. I can completely understand people not paying attention to something that happens daily, yet being shocked by something that hasn't happened in just over 10 years.



And seldom does a car crash result from painters shoving tape into an air speed tube or metal fatigue causing the elevator to jam or require months of investigation to determine the cause of the crash. Typically the crash is due to a texting driver or some late for work driver.
 
SUNCTRY738
Posts: 128
Joined: Sun May 14, 2017 3:39 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:55 pm

Jetlady wrote:
Can't help but wonder about midair with GA traffic - Chambers Co Aiport directly below flight path before rapid descent....


Good point. I remember practicing stall recovery out over this bay area in a GA aircraft years ago out of the nearby Baytown airport.
 
KentB27
Posts: 476
Joined: Fri Oct 02, 2015 2:20 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:57 pm

Whiplash6 wrote:
UPS 2013

But your point is taken.


You're right. Forgot about that one. Thanks.
 
trnswrld
Posts: 1363
Joined: Sat May 22, 1999 2:19 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:59 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
There are 6 things that bring down an aircraft in this manner:

1- load shift......doubt that based on the cargo.
2- Pitch trim runaway. Would be controllable IF they completed their immediate action items and turned off the STAB cutoff switches.
3- stall but it would have had to have been a deep stall (think Airfrance) to be unrecoverable.
4- loss of reliable airspeed creating a loss of control inflight.
5- catastrophic failure of the airframe
6- suicide or terrorism.

Everything else is manageable to a high degree. It was not a single or dual engine failure. It was not a decompression. It was not an electrical failure, the HMG would provide power. There is no such thing as an elevator hard over. Inadvertent spoiler extension could be controlled as would asymmetric flap/slay extension. The altitude they were at Windshear would have been recoverable. Windshear is typically a small area and a microburst is even smaller, with that amount of altitude they would have flown through it. Hail would not bring down a jet just look at DL in ICN and AA in PEK. Lightning would not bring down a jet.

There is honestly very few things that cause aircraft to just crash......

A sad day in the aviation community I have thousands of hours in 767s and am anxious to read the NTSB report. RIP to the crew.


Best post I’ve seen in this thread so far.
 
KICT
Posts: 815
Joined: Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:54 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:03 pm

SUNCTRY738 wrote:
Jetlady wrote:
Can't help but wonder about midair with GA traffic - Chambers Co Aiport directly below flight path before rapid descent....


Good point. I remember practicing stall recovery out over this bay area in a GA aircraft years ago out of the nearby Baytown airport.

Come on. Someone would have reported a GA aircraft missing by now.
Give me a break.
People are saying. Believe me.
 
User avatar
william
Posts: 3151
Joined: Thu Jun 10, 1999 1:31 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:18 pm

Have not read through all 8 pages but here is a video of the aircraft before take off in MIA. Caught on the MIA Airport webcam.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1099523727744655360
 
HPRamper
Posts: 4951
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:22 pm

Woodreau wrote:
KICT wrote:
It's my understanding that pilots flying cargo are not required to go through any TSA screening. They literally just walk on.

This true?

Every fedex or UPS flight I’ve ridden as a passenger on, I’ve had to go through X-ray screening. It’s not Tsa but my bags have always been X-rayed and screened, when you connect at the hub, you get X-ray screened again. You travel with the flight crew from the operations building to the aircraft.

Flying passenger planes and going through a Tsa checkpoint in the passenger terminal I’ve gone months without going through an X-ray or having my bags searched.

So I would have to say, flying in a cargo freighter you get more security scrutiny than you do flying passenger airliners.

Interesting. I work at a very busy FX ramp, and there is no X-ray screening. Jumpseaters are simply wanded and have bags inspected by one person in a room up the hallway. Then that same person escorts them out to the plane, completely apart from the flight crew. It's a very relaxed situation.
 
bennett123
Posts: 8944
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:40 pm

Babyshark

My initial reaction to a mid air was to discount it, because no other aircraft is apparently missing.

I assume that it could not have hit a drug flight as presumably radar would have picked it up. However, what about a drone strike or a drone near miss resulting in loss of control.
 
klm617
Posts: 4434
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:41 pm

glideslope900 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
glideslope900 wrote:

7,000ft AGL should be enough to recover from a stall unless it was a botched recovery. Does the Flightaware data show a degradation of airspeed?

Can we confirm that they were in IMC? This would make managing any situation more difficult.


Not if your flying surfaces are damaged.


Then the cause would be flight control damage, not a stall...


What facts do we have that it was a stall that brought down the 767
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 3655
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:44 pm

 
EXMEMWIDGET
Posts: 200
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2004 4:25 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:47 pm

HPRamper wrote:
Woodreau wrote:
KICT wrote:
It's my understanding that pilots flying cargo are not required to go through any TSA screening. They literally just walk on.

This true?

Every fedex or UPS flight I’ve ridden as a passenger on, I’ve had to go through X-ray screening. It’s not Tsa but my bags have always been X-rayed and screened, when you connect at the hub, you get X-ray screened again. You travel with the flight crew from the operations building to the aircraft.

Flying passenger planes and going through a Tsa checkpoint in the passenger terminal I’ve gone months without going through an X-ray or having my bags searched.

So I would have to say, flying in a cargo freighter you get more security scrutiny than you do flying passenger airliners.

Interesting. I work at a very busy FX ramp, and there is no X-ray screening. Jumpseaters are simply wanded and have bags inspected by one person in a room up the hallway. Then that same person escorts them out to the plane, completely apart from the flight crew. It's a very relaxed situation.


FX security is definitely a mish mash of different levels depending on location. My location DFW/AFW is loaded down with all sorts of ID card readers, cameras and X-ray machines and security guards. I have to scan my ID at two different points before I even get to the X-ray machine. All of the other ramps that I go to have a ID card reader or two and a few cameras, but nothing else.
Ex DL and NW, current FX.
 
guppyflyer
Posts: 26
Joined: Sun Feb 16, 2014 9:41 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:50 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
The Unreliable Airspeed training is why I think there was also control surface damage. The pilots can sort out the UnrelAS, esp. after the publicity from Lion Air... but if the elevator and/or horizontal stab don't respond ....


Name one scenario that can keep an airplane intact but render complete loss of control to both the stabizers and elevators.

There are a lot of “expert” theories on this thread that have no basis behind them. Now we are even up to suggesting it was pilot suicide.

Let’s let the experts figure out what happened.


Alaska 261 comes to mind.
 
TSS
Posts: 3299
Joined: Fri Dec 29, 2006 3:52 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:55 pm

KICT wrote:
SUNCTRY738 wrote:
Jetlady wrote:
Can't help but wonder about midair with GA traffic - Chambers Co Aiport directly below flight path before rapid descent....


Good point. I remember practicing stall recovery out over this bay area in a GA aircraft years ago out of the nearby Baytown airport.

Come on. Someone would have reported a GA aircraft missing by now.
Give me a break.

Not necessarily. If someone was flying their plane alone to a destination where they were not scheduled to meet up with anyone or to a private airfield somewhere, their absence might not be noted for a while. I'm not saying that's the only explanation or even the best one, but it does seem to be one of the more likely ones to explain the sudden apparent loss of control.
Able to kill active threads stone dead with a single post!
 
MD4ME
Posts: 1
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:47 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 3:02 pm

Woodreau wrote:
KICT wrote:
It's my understanding that pilots flying cargo are not required to go through any TSA screening. They literally just walk on.

This true?

Every fedex or UPS flight I’ve ridden as a passenger on, I’ve had to go through X-ray screening. It’s not Tsa but my bags have always been X-rayed and screened, when you connect at the hub, you get X-ray screened again. You travel with the flight crew from the operations building to the aircraft.

Flying passenger planes and going through a Tsa checkpoint in the passenger terminal I’ve gone months without going through an X-ray or having my bags searched.

So I would have to say, flying in a cargo freighter you get more security scrutiny than you do flying passenger airliners.



I work for a cargo Airline. There is generally screening at the ramp locations, but it is primarily there to keep employees from stealing merchandise in all honesty.

Good and interesting analysis from everyone, but as we always find out - it will never be one thing that causes the incident. It will be a series of events that go all the way back through the aircraft, airline, training, procedures, pilots, etc. Hopefully we will learn something in this incident that will prevent another in the future.
 
AvroLanc
Posts: 58
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2016 12:40 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 3:03 pm

BHM wrote:

People die in car crashes every single day. We haven't had a commercial airliner crash on US soil with fatalities since 2009. I can completely understand people not paying attention to something that happens daily, yet being shocked by something that hasn't happened in just over 10 years.



And seldom does a car crash result from painters shoving tape into an air speed tube or metal fatigue causing the elevator to jam or require months of investigation to determine the cause of the crash. Typically the crash is due to a texting driver or some late for work driver.


Pretty sure there are many car related fatalities caused by weather, animals and even mechanical failure. Poor maintenance can certainly lead to problems at high speed. Likely in this instance it may turn out to be more than one contributing cause.
707, 717, 727, 732, 734, 737 ,738, 7M8, 742, 744, 767, 773, 789.
DC8, 9,10, MD80 ,L1011 ,HSTrident, BAC111, DHComet.
DH8-100, 400, CRJ100,200,700, EM75,90, A310,319,320,321,333
 
dtwpilot225
Posts: 267
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:31 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 3:06 pm

All these posts about bird strikes, fires, flight control issues and what not are pointless. The crew would have had time to radio in something, anything. Why are we so impatient and self proclaimed ntsb investigators. Within 2 weeks all boxes will probably have been reviewed and we will know
 
n6238p
Posts: 426
Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2006 5:35 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 3:07 pm

washingtonflyer wrote:
n6238p wrote:
washingtonflyer wrote:

Different forums have different areas of focus. This forum has always had an investigatory/inquisitive sleuth basis to it.

Heck, in the most -major- US commercial crash in memory = AA 587, one poster actually worked the flight as a gate agent.


aaaand tell me what a gate agent is going to tell us about a crashed flight? That the pilot grabbed Wendy’s before he got to the plane? This whole thread is mind boggling. Now we have a possible midair with a drug plane as a suggestion.


The point is that this forum has -for a very long time- focused its direction towards technical discussion of aircraft incidents / disasters / mishaps.


Wild speculation with little to no facts is nothing more than a fun game for this forum after a fatal accident. It always is and always will be. There’s nothing technical about this discussion at this point.
To actively root against anybody is just low, and I hope karma comes back at you with a vengeance
 
Boof02671
Posts: 1626
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:15 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 3:29 pm

The 767 is equipped with. RAT (Ram Air Turbine) that deploys to provide hydraulics and electricity.
 
User avatar
tenHangar
Posts: 15
Joined: Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:39 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Feb 24, 2019 3:35 pm

Reportedly, a young pilot: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... e-Air.html
The article says "the pilot" but not sure about that.
Last edited by tenHangar on Sun Feb 24, 2019 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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