ILNFlyer
Posts: 375
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:11 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
KICT wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
None of us can be certain about anything at this point, other than the obvious fact that the aircraft went down for unknown reasons and 3 people are dead as a result. Families are in pain today. Aviation professionals and a whole bunch of corporate people are in mourning over this event. Let's wait and see whats the facts show.

Great idea. Let's lock down all of the threads related to this incident until the NTSB issues their report one year from now...

Give me a break. This is a discussion forum and we're going to discuss the incident. If you don't want to discuss it then don't read it.

Can someone furthermore explain to me the logic of "this can't be pilot suicide because it's the wrong phase of flight" mentality? Pilot suicide is almost certainly being looked at given the recent history of these types of incidents, e.g. MH370, Germanwings, the E190 in Africa...

You can bet your next paycheck that the FBI will be investigating this line of inquiry.


And will be found true or eliminated upon listening to the CVR. I’ll bet money eliminated especially as there were likely three pilots up front.

GF


No one suggested locking down the thread. Don't be stupid. The FBI and NTSB will investigate the possibility of pilot suicide, yes. However, when certain people put this up front as the most likely cause of the crash before we have any accurate information, like 1 second of a recording, it does absolutely nothing to further the discussion here and unnecessarily harms the reputations of those who perished. If an investigation proves otherwise, as in the Germanwings crash, fine.
 
DUSdude
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:16 pm

4holer wrote:
Folks... There is a HUGE difference between an "accusation" and "suggesting a possibility".
There is also a difference between saying a pilot intentionally crashing "IS" the cause and "COULD BE" the cause.


There is also a "HUGE" difference between discussing potential causes that are supported with facts and carry a decent probability of accuracy vs. just spouting off random things for which there is zero evidence at this time and very low probability, but which nonetheless smear the good names of now deceased persons who are not here to defend themselves. Both a proper understanding of empiricism and decent norms of human behaviour ought to mitigate against the latter. Cheers
 
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litz
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:41 pm

TripleDelta wrote:
Silver1SWA wrote:
I still hear “pull” and it sounds similar to the voice in that video.


As Whiplash stated, any GPWS callout - even a run-of-the-mill altitude readout - is loud. The whole point of them is that they can be heard clearly and unambiguously above the cockpit din, speech, wind nose, engine noise and so on. Even more so, the actual wording used, the tone and stress of the speaker, the rate of speech and volume are all intended to "get to the crew" in situations where they get too disoriented or focused/preoccupied with one thing to notice their proximity to terrain - which is why GPWS callouts in general sound so unnatural, forced and commanding.

For lack of a better comparison, the GPWS is a Marine drill instructor - and not a shy boy tugging at your jacket sleeve trying to get your attention. If it has something to say, trust me, you'll know it!


I was sitting in FC on a MD-88, when GPWS went off during a landing rollout (that should tell you how fierce the wall of thunderstorm we rolled into was).

Every single person in the cabin ahead of row 10 was instantly alert with wide eyes.

If WE heard it that clearly and loudly, imagine on the other side of that heavily reinforced (and closed) cockpit wall.
 
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litz
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:55 pm

estorilm wrote:
na wrote:
I have always wondered in recent years, why "suddenly" so many old and even some very old (20 y +) 767s were converted to freighters. Airplanes which had reached the age at which most planes are being scrapped. The Amazon freighter which sadly has crashed now is among them.

The freighter conversion offers pretty good operating performance, even for an old plane. As others had mentioned, the reduced route cycles tend to somewhat negate the lack of efficiency compared to other freighters. For a customer like Amazon, the size is probably ideal as well - the cost is CERTAINLY ideal versus anything new they'd be able to get (which would likely be too large).

Passenger aircraft get scrapped since the margins are just painfully small, and there are plenty of alternatives or new models available offering significant cost savings which make it tempting.


GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Here is an excerpt from a proposed FAA AD on the 767:

On August 18, 2000, we issued AD 2000-17-05, Amendment 39-11879 (65 FR 51754, August 25, 2000), for certain The Boeing Company Model 767-200, -300, and -300F series airplanes. That AD requires a one-time functional check of the shear rivets in all six PCA bellcrank assemblies to determine the condition of the shear rivets; and replacement or rework of the bellcrank assemblies, if necessary. That AD resulted from reports that elevator bellcrank assemblies with failed shear rivets had been found on three Model 767 airplanes. We issued that AD to detect and correct any failed or partially yielded shear rivets of the elevator PCA bellcrank assemblies. Failure of two bellcrank assemblies on one side can result in that single elevator surface moving to a hardover position, independent of pilot command, resulting in a significant pitch upset recoverable by the crew. Failure of three bellcrank assemblies on one side could result in loss of control of the airplane.


https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2013/02/26/2013-04338/airworthiness-directives-the-boeing-company-airplanes

GF

That's actually a really good find. Usually 99.999% of these things have no way of resulting in what we see in a crash (in these types of threads anyways) but yikes, certainly something to keep in mind.

Missing it or non-compliance w/ AD would really surprise me, but who knows - technically LAN should have performed these checks or repairs initially, as Atlas only got her in 2016. :scratchchin:


I would think that the freighter rebuild would have also covered this as well, since the conversion process essentially includes a "stripped to bare metal" D-level check.

At the very least, it would certainly include a review of paperwork to ensure compliance of all active ADs.
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:58 pm

DUSdude wrote:
4holer wrote:
Folks... There is a HUGE difference between an "accusation" and "suggesting a possibility".
There is also a difference between saying a pilot intentionally crashing "IS" the cause and "COULD BE" the cause.


There is also a "HUGE" difference between discussing potential causes that are supported with facts and carry a decent probability of accuracy vs. just spouting off random things for which there is zero evidence at this time and very low probability, but which nonetheless smear the good names of now deceased persons who are not here to defend themselves. Both a proper understanding of empiricism and decent norms of human behaviour ought to mitigate against the latter. Cheers


Which are??
Everything is a speculation here and there is ZERO conclusive evidence what so ever.
You can't have your cake and eat it so which way you want it?

**sorry for edits. My phone is formatting weird
 
dakota123
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:06 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
It was proposed, I couldn’t find the final AD, if there was one.


Adopted March 3, 2014: https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0095-0007
“And If I claim to be a wise man, well surely it means that I don’t know”
 
Western727
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:07 pm

litz wrote:
estorilm wrote:
na wrote:
I have always wondered in recent years, why "suddenly" so many old and even some very old (20 y +) 767s were converted to freighters. Airplanes which had reached the age at which most planes are being scrapped. The Amazon freighter which sadly has crashed now is among them.

The freighter conversion offers pretty good operating performance, even for an old plane. As others had mentioned, the reduced route cycles tend to somewhat negate the lack of efficiency compared to other freighters. For a customer like Amazon, the size is probably ideal as well - the cost is CERTAINLY ideal versus anything new they'd be able to get (which would likely be too large).

Passenger aircraft get scrapped since the margins are just painfully small, and there are plenty of alternatives or new models available offering significant cost savings which make it tempting.


GalaxyFlyer wrote:

That's actually a really good find. Usually 99.999% of these things have no way of resulting in what we see in a crash (in these types of threads anyways) but yikes, certainly something to keep in mind.

Missing it or non-compliance w/ AD would really surprise me, but who knows - technically LAN should have performed these checks or repairs initially, as Atlas only got her in 2016. :scratchchin:


I would think that the freighter rebuild would have also covered this as well, since the conversion process essentially includes a "stripped to bare metal" D-level check.

At the very least, it would certainly include a review of paperwork to ensure compliance of all active ADs.


I'm with you on that. My understanding of the conversion process from an AMT buddy of mine from a major airline is that the P to F conversion process indeed includes a D check. If that's true, then the aircraft would be in compliance with all active ADs.
Jack @ AUS
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:10 pm

I suspect weather folks, at the highest levels, are going over all weather data from multiple sources. Investigators are likely putting this at the top of their list right now. Here in the Pacific Northwest we have a climate researcher who will occasionally go over some odd and unexpectedly severe wind phenomena. He also has reported that weather conditions and forecasts for aviation could and should be substantially improved. The data is available, pilots do not receive it.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
flyboy730
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:38 pm

cougar15 wrote:
bennett123 wrote:
My understanding is that the ATC recording indicates that more than one person was in the cockpit as this unfolded.

Unless we consider that there was some conspiracy between them, (which is straight out of Hollywood) then deliberate pilot action is ruled out.

Pilot suicide/murder was a possibility which has been considered here and ruled out.

I would expect that NTSB have now also ruled it out.


Indeed, these aircraft have no secure cockpit door, it is in fact a curtain separating cockpit from galley, toilet and supernumerary seats. So no locked out pilot as per Germanwings for example. Given this setup (which many may not be aware of) and unless 2 of the recovered bodies have been shot (which I am sure we would have heard by now), I think the ongoing pilot suicide discussion is getting a little tiering to read! Appreciate the circumstances of this crash leave all of us baffled and searching for answers, but a little more respect for these fellow airmen may not go astray...…!


The 300 freighters do not have supernumerary seats. There’s the jump seat, then 3 seats along the back wall of the cockpit with the toilet being in the aft right corner of the cockpit. The 767-200’s have the supernumerary area which is separated by a functional flight deck door.
 
bennett123
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:08 pm

The AD was adopted in March 2014, when the aircraft was at LAN.

It was then parked until going to Atlas Air in January 2016.

Given that para 2K and 2L say work needed to be done within 12K hrs and 6K hrs, do we know when it was done for this airframe.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:56 pm

If not done before conversion, the AD compliance is done during the P to F conversion. Whether done on the frame at issue would require access to MX records.
 
jtamu97
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:05 pm

Local news reporting more human remains found at the crash site. Still looking for voice recorder and black box with dredging beginning in hopes of finding the boxes.
Propeller, we don't need no stinkin propeller
 
WIederling
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:06 pm

16 pages of chatter here and avherald shows nothing beyond some photos and supplemental data.
Interesting.
Murphy is an optimist
 
buzzard302
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:08 pm

WIederling wrote:
16 pages of chatter here and avherald shows nothing beyond some photos and supplemental data.
Interesting.


It's only been a few days, and no CVR or FDR has been found yet. What were you hoping for?
 
WIederling
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:13 pm

buzzard302 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
16 pages of chatter here and avherald shows nothing beyond some photos and supplemental data.
Interesting.


It's only been a few days, and no CVR or FDR has been found yet. What were you hoping for?

Nothing.
Just wondering about the full flow of this and that, zero evidence, no facts. all trashed around.
Gist: 767 best plane ever
What a downer.
Murphy is an optimist
 
buzzard302
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:20 pm

WIederling wrote:
Nothing.
Just wondering about the full flow of this and that, zero evidence, no facts. all trashed around.
Gist: 767 best plane ever
What a downer.


Well I agree. Despite all the chatter in these threads, I think most people here are enthusiast and a technical minded group. Everyone wants to know the answer to the mystery.
 
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flybynight
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:51 pm

I always hate these headlines.

The biggest concern is taking care of the family and loved ones of those three pilots.

Answers almost always came after an investigation and hopefully whatever caused this can be used to improve either the technology, the mechanical "bits", or pilot training as needed.

The 767 has been one of the absolute most reliable planes since inception in the early 80's. One loss is of course one too much, but if you look at the safety record of the 767 it is pretty darn good.

The Lauda Air was certainly concerning years ago, but it will be interesting (which is actually a poor choice of words) to see what caused this. There are no winners in these situations, only answers.

I did read that a security video captured the crash. I wonder if that will be made public
Heia Norge!
 
zippy
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:56 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
If not done before conversion, the AD compliance is done during the P to F conversion. Whether done on the frame at issue would require access to MX records.


$10 and they're yours

https://www.faa.gov/licenses_certificat ... t_records/
 
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scbriml
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:18 pm

buzzard302 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
16 pages of chatter here and avherald shows nothing beyond some photos and supplemental data.
Interesting.


It's only been a few days, and no CVR or FDR has been found yet. What were you hoping for?


In another thread the lack of CVR and FDR was claimed to be evidence of a conspiratorial cover-up. :sarcastic:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Wacker1000
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:37 pm

Western727 wrote:

I'm with you on that. My understanding of the conversion process from an AMT buddy of mine from a major airline is that the P to F conversion process indeed includes a D check. If that's true, then the aircraft would be in compliance with all active ADs.


But only if the operator's program includes a D-Check.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:47 pm

flybynight wrote:
I did read that a security video captured the crash. I wonder if that will be made public


At the press conference, NTSB said yes, but only as part of the docket (e.g. much later in the process -- hopefully after much of the ghoulish interest has died down).
 
Indy
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:11 am

After seeing the wild BA video, I wonder if there is any chance the plane got rolled due to storms in the area. How far does a plane have to roll to lose lift? Would the altitude of 7,000 feet or less be too low to recover from that?
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
dakota123
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:35 am

Western727 wrote:
litz wrote:
estorilm wrote:
The freighter conversion offers pretty good operating performance, even for an old plane. As others had mentioned, the reduced route cycles tend to somewhat negate the lack of efficiency compared to other freighters. For a customer like Amazon, the size is probably ideal as well - the cost is CERTAINLY ideal versus anything new they'd be able to get (which would likely be too large).

Passenger aircraft get scrapped since the margins are just painfully small, and there are plenty of alternatives or new models available offering significant cost savings which make it tempting.



That's actually a really good find. Usually 99.999% of these things have no way of resulting in what we see in a crash (in these types of threads anyways) but yikes, certainly something to keep in mind.

Missing it or non-compliance w/ AD would really surprise me, but who knows - technically LAN should have performed these checks or repairs initially, as Atlas only got her in 2016. :scratchchin:



I would think that the freighter rebuild would have also covered this as well, since the conversion process essentially includes a "stripped to bare metal" D-level check.

At the very least, it would certainly include a review of paperwork to ensure compliance of all active ADs.


I'm with you on that. My understanding of the conversion process from an AMT buddy of mine from a major airline is that the P to F conversion process indeed includes a D check. If that's true, then the aircraft would be in compliance with all active ADs.


Not disputing at all, but it wouldn't be the first time that an issued AD was the last word on a matter. Plenty of instances where a supposed once-and-for-all fix, wasn't.
“And If I claim to be a wise man, well surely it means that I don’t know”
 
DUSdude
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:11 am

PixelPilot wrote:
DUSdude wrote:
4holer wrote:
Folks... There is a HUGE difference between an "accusation" and "suggesting a possibility".
There is also a difference between saying a pilot intentionally crashing "IS" the cause and "COULD BE" the cause.


There is also a "HUGE" difference between discussing potential causes that are supported with facts and carry a decent probability of accuracy vs. just spouting off random things for which there is zero evidence at this time and very low probability, but which nonetheless smear the good names of now deceased persons who are not here to defend themselves. Both a proper understanding of empiricism and decent norms of human behaviour ought to mitigate against the latter. Cheers


Which are??
Everything is a speculation here and there is ZERO conclusive evidence what so ever.
You can't have your cake and eat it so which way you want it?

**sorry for edits. My phone is formatting weird


You seem to have missed the bit about "decent probability of accuracy". When you don't have positive (at least circumstantial) evidence pointing toward a possible intentional act by one of the pilots, there is zero reason to consider this, given the extremely low probability of such a cause being the reason. If you look at the history of air crashes, the most probable causes are usually some combination of environmental and mechanical causes compounded by pilot error in dealing with these issues. Given the extremely low likelihood, an intentional act is simply not a cause you consider until there is some evidence to suggest that. Also, this way you avoid looking like an idiot for gratuitously smearing the memory of most likely innocent people. There is a categorical ethical difference between speculating about causes of an ***accident*** vs. accusing a human being of committing a ***criminal act*** without even the slightest shred of a probable cause. I am terribly sorry this needs to be explained to you.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:17 am

Indy wrote:
After seeing the wild BA video, I wonder if there is any chance the plane got rolled due to storms in the area. How far does a plane have to roll to lose lift? Would the altitude of 7,000 feet or less be too low to recover from that?


There’s a significant difference in wind action over flat ground (Trinity Bay) and notorious turbulence around the Rock of Gibraltar-not remotely the same.

There’s always lift produced assuming sufficient airspeed for the airfoil, which direction the lift vector is applied is another question, as is whether their is sufficient lift to maintain level flight. At 60 degrees of bank, only half of the lift component is available to counter gravity, hence 2Gs much be applied to generate sufficient lift to maintain altitude. It’s a function of the cosine of the bank angle. Maintain 1G at 60 degrees of bank, you’re descending.


GF
 
Indy
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:25 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
There’s a significant difference in wind action over flat ground (Trinity Bay) and notorious turbulence around the Rock of Gibraltar-not remotely the same.

There’s always lift produced assuming sufficient airspeed for the airfoil, which direction the lift vector is applied is another question, as is whether their is sufficient lift to maintain level flight. At 60 degrees of bank, only half of the lift component is available to counter gravity, hence 2Gs much be applied to generate sufficient lift to maintain altitude. It’s a function of the cosine of the bank angle. Maintain 1G at 60 degrees of bank, you’re descending.


GF


Does this mean we can rule out the plane getting rolled by wind and going down like that?
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:32 am

Pretty much, the plane in GIB wasn’t in the least danger of crashing. Passengers (and posters here riding in 2A or 39B) have shown over and over again their lack of basic understanding of flight dynamics. The KCOS UA accident was thought to be turbulence in the lee of the Rockies—it wasn’t, it was mechanical failure mode of the rudder that took years to identify and solve.
 
Indy
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:32 am

DUSdude wrote:
You seem to have missed the bit about "decent probability of accuracy". When you don't have positive (at least circumstantial) evidence pointing toward a possible intentional act by one of the pilots, there is zero reason to consider this, given the extremely low probability of such a cause being the reason. If you look at the history of air crashes, the most probable causes are usually some combination of environmental and mechanical causes compounded by pilot error in dealing with these issues. Given the extremely low likelihood, an intentional act is simply not a cause you consider until there is some evidence to suggest that. Also, this way you avoid looking like an idiot for gratuitously smearing the memory of most likely innocent people. There is a categorical ethical difference between speculating about causes of an ***accident*** vs. accusing a human being of committing a ***criminal act*** without even the slightest shred of a probable cause. I am terribly sorry this needs to be explained to you.


You have zero evidence that points to this wreck being mechanical or human error either. No one is accusing anyone of anything. It has only been stated that it is a possibility. By those standards, you'd be accusing the pilots of causing the crash if you suggested human error. Or you could be implicating a manufacturer at some level if you imply the problem could have been mechanical. At this point virtually any scenarios is as likely, or as unlikely, as the next. If a discussion about possible causes of an accident makes people uncomfortable, then perhaps they should stay out of crash threads.

The only facts at this point is that the plane was at a given altitude heading in a particular direction at whatever speed, and moments later it was in ruins. Facts also show that it went down in a steep angle. That is it. Those are the available facts. There are no available facts at this point to suggest mechanical failure, human error, or criminal activity, or even an act of god for that matter. Unless you have evidence (not just speculation) that the wreck was caused by any one of these 4 things, they are ALL fair game for discussion.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:35 am

Could it have been an improper input in response to wake turbulence like AA 587? Was there anything really heavy like a 748 or A380 in front of them? A380 wake turbulence once flipped a business jet upside down and into a spiral. Luckily the crew were able to get out of it and land safely. But not all pilots are as competent.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:36 am

GF, 7Boeing7, Whale, Fr8Mech, et al., would the FDR (or live link to a "systems reporting center"... don't know if Atlas uses the Boeing service) report a stab or elevator lock-up or inop?
 
yoshua16
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:38 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Could it have been an improper input in response to wake turbulence like AA 587? Was there anything really heavy like a 748 or A380 in front of them? A380 wake turbulence once flipped a business jet upside down and into a spiral. Luckily the crew were able to get out of it and land safely. But not all pilots are as competent.
That was a small business jet though. A 767 could handle a A380's wake. Would be a bumpy ride but as long as the pilot doesnt do what the American A300 pilot did when they crashed in Queens they will be fine.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
aircountry
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 2:00 am

I keep reading so many posts and so far not find anything that lead to crash. Many of them pointing at pilot is the factor but I dont think so is suicide I think one of the pilot got a heart attack before crash right after last word to ATC and stopped. Seems like when heart attack then body slump and hit the control to dive down faster and no time for co pilot to pull up due the speed was too fast to dive down. No mayday or emergency call nothing. That is my guess so what do you think the answer? We will wait for the answer after they find the black box and others and the age of the pilot with name too.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 2:04 am

No. Turbulence reported. Pilots are in their harnesses. Fatality stays in the harness.
 
estorilm
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 2:17 am

Indy wrote:
After seeing the wild BA video, I wonder if there is any chance the plane got rolled due to storms in the area. How far does a plane have to roll to lose lift? Would the altitude of 7,000 feet or less be too low to recover from that?

Absolutely not. Even if they were directly in the center of the storms (which isn't the case here most of us believe) those storms weren't even remotely strong enough to roll a plane - besides planes don't really "roll" they might lose control momentarily, but it's difficult to continue a "roll" action as winds act on most of the aircraft evenly (at least once you reach 90 deg) - you'd need like an extreme mountain rotor or something like that, and the weather and terrain were not conducive to that.

I posted the NWS Aviation forecast discussion earlier, and it was for a normal frontal passage with some storms, clearing after - M-VFR to IFR possible. No mention of anything extreme. Upper level winds at all alt were normal, fairly normal shear. NO PIREPS at all, and one pilot reported the rains associated with the front were light.

Plus, this isn't a Cessna we're talking about here.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 2:53 am

Agreed, as noted above, a P2F conversion signoff requires currency on all ADs. Not worth spending $10 to show that the frame was current as of the conversion.
.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:39 am

WPvsMW wrote:
GF, 7Boeing7, Whale, Fr8Mech, et al., would the FDR (or live link to a "systems reporting center"... don't know if Atlas uses the Boeing service) report a stab or elevator lock-up or inop?


I would think it would show both control column position and flight control actuator position which infers surface position. As to the AD, I don’t doubt it was complied with, was the work done correctly, was their another unknown failure mode IF this is causal or contributing factor, which we don’t know. Remember the JAL 747 pressure bulkhead failed after a Boeing repair. This is doubtlessly a unique event.

GF
 
iad51fl
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:56 am

They are still having issues locating the 3rd crew member. During normal flight I would assume they would all be strapped in the cockpit. Could the 3rd crew member have been up from his seat checking out a problem in the back of the aircraft and therefore in with all the cargo pallets at the time of the crash?
Enjoying the view of KIAH approach end of 27. 29.980548, -95.271201
 
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drerx7
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:05 am

Local news stated other human remains found today - presumably of the third individual.
HOUSTON, TEXAS
 
Chemist
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:05 am

A pattern I've seen on airliners.net forums is that for any accident/crash, those who are honestly interested speculate. Before the evidence comes in. That's what humans do, and that is what forums are for - discussion. It's sad people died. We KNOW we don't have much evidence or data yet. But I really don't get the butthurt about honest speculation, even including unlikely causes. Really, don't read the thread if you don't want to hear those things. I haven't read anything in this thread that says that they're sure x happened. People are guessing, exploring possibilities.

Have a nice day everybody.
 
bennett123
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:09 am

If there was time for him to do so, would there also be time to speak to ATC.

Two other points;

1. Do we know who is still missing.

2. If he was re entering the cockpit when they hit turbulence could he have been thrown onto the other pilots.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:58 am

iad51fl wrote:
They are still having issues locating the 3rd crew member. During normal flight I would assume they would all be strapped in the cockpit. Could the 3rd crew member have been up from his seat checking out a problem in the back of the aircraft and therefore in with all the cargo pallets at the time of the crash?


Whale or other freight ops members can answer based on more experience, but I don't think anyone would get out of the harness when flying into a large cold front with bright red cells ahead. At my old airline (using combis), no one EVER went into the freight area en route.

As to person 3, see post 793 above.
Last edited by WPvsMW on Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:01 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
GF, 7Boeing7, Whale, Fr8Mech, et al., would the FDR (or live link to a "systems reporting center"... don't know if Atlas uses the Boeing service) report a stab or elevator lock-up or inop?


I would think it would show both control column position and flight control actuator position which infers surface position. As to the AD, I don’t doubt it was complied with, was the work done correctly, was their another unknown failure mode IF this is causal or contributing factor, which we don’t know. Remember the JAL 747 pressure bulkhead failed after a Boeing repair. This is doubtlessly a unique event.

GF


Thanks. I don't think any frame has sensors on the control surface hinges themselves. Commanding stab/elevator movement won't do much good if the stab/elevator is jammed ... or missing.
 
glideslope900
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:04 am

aircountry wrote:
I keep reading so many posts and so far not find anything that lead to crash. Many of them pointing at pilot is the factor but I dont think so is suicide I think one of the pilot got a heart attack before crash right after last word to ATC and stopped. Seems like when heart attack then body slump and hit the control to dive down faster and no time for co pilot to pull up due the speed was too fast to dive down. No mayday or emergency call nothing. That is my guess so what do you think the answer? We will wait for the answer after they find the black box and others and the age of the pilot with name too.


Very unlikely. Not even worth considering this theory at this point. First thing is to listen to CVR/FDR and inspect flight controls.
 
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:10 am

First, I think this thread is seriously hurt by the debate about malicious acts, perhaps *more* than simply mentioning them as one of the many possible causes. Can we get back on topic? (Again, I think all possible causes that could result in a crash so quickly should be on the list, no matter what their probabilities are. But it is not an accusation or conclusion of anything; simply a list of possibilities. There are also many possibilities that should not be on the list, like mere engine problem or fuel issue. And I realise that there are people on this board who know affected people in this and other accidents; I'm sorry for your loss and I respect you and your co-workers. And we should never accuse anyone of anything. But, I also think methodological listing of possible causes that do or don't fit the situation isn't disrespectful and is squarely within the reason for the existence of this discussion forum. I'm sorry for returning to this part of the discussion, again, I don't feel it should be necessary given the IMHO very small likelihood that malicious acts were involved, but I think the debate of not being allowed to mention them is hurting the forum.)

I do want to get back to the more likely reasons for this accident. I'm intrigued by the AD, actually. It was mentioned earlier on in the thread and at the time I thought this is handled. But the text says "AD requires a one-time functional check of the shear rivets in all six PCA bellcrank assemblies" and now I'm left wondering if there's a reason why a one-time check is sufficient. Was the issue caused by manufacturing methods, and therefore one check would be enough to find out if there was a defect? Or was the issue something related to potential corrosion or other reason that could after a long period of time re-appear?

It is a scary thought that something in the back breaks, causes an unfixable control surfaces deflection, and the people in front suddenly become helpless passengers.
 
ryanov
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:50 am

Chemist wrote:
But I really don't get the butthurt about honest speculation, even including unlikely causes. Really, don't read the thread if you don't want to hear those things. I haven't read anything in this thread that says that they're sure x happened. People are guessing, exploring possibilities.

There are people offended for various reasons, and there are some that think the wild speculation is pointless. But I personally just think it's a waste of time and makes it hard to navigate the thread, which I think is otherwise interesting. If you don't know anything about this, why not read this forum instead of writing in it? Not everyone needs to read something from ever poster here. There's no need to read 10 pages of "you know, another plane dove into the water -- maybe it's that same thing" when it's pretty obvious with a few seconds homework that planes don't work that way. For example, the number of times people have brought up windshear. Windshear is just a rapid change in wind direction/speed. It's not going to slam a very large plane to the ground from 7000 feet. DL191 was at whatever height they'd have been at 14 seconds after 1000 feet, descending. I just looked that up; took seconds. If it happened to 191 a bit higher, they'd have lost some altitude and been fine.

I'm not an aviation professional either, but I read before I write. Even reading this thread before writing would be an improvement.
 
TSS
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:54 am

scbriml wrote:
buzzard302 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
16 pages of chatter here and avherald shows nothing beyond some photos and supplemental data.
Interesting.


It's only been a few days, and no CVR or FDR has been found yet. What were you hoping for?


In another thread the lack of CVR and FDR was claimed to be evidence of a conspiratorial cover-up. :sarcastic:


Oh geez… I hope you suggested that person travel to the crash scene and offer their services in quickly finding shoebox-sized objects somewhere within an area the size of a football field or larger, half or more of which is made up of of cold, muddy marsh water with a couple of feet of soft, squishy mud underneath it. I can think of very few less pleasant or accommodating environments within which to have to conduct an air crash investigation and look for small missing bits of an aircraft. The only break the investigators have on this is that it is February, so most of the alligators and poisonous snakes (Water Moccasins/Cottonmouths ((same species, different names)) and Rattlesnakes aplenty just for starters) in that immediate area will still be hibernating or at least much less active right now.
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scbriml
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:26 am

TSS wrote:
Oh geez… I hope you suggested that person travel to the crash scene and offer their services in quickly finding shoebox-sized objects somewhere within an area the size of a football field or larger, half or more of which is made up of of cold, muddy marsh water with a couple of feet of soft, squishy mud underneath it.


I was being too subtle - this was the Lion crash thread on this site. The sad thing is, it was more than just one person. They had to start coming up with other theories once the CVR was finally recovered.
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OlafW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:21 am

AirlineCritic wrote:
It is a scary thought that something in the back breaks, causes an unfixable control surfaces deflection, and the people in front suddenly become helpless passengers.


As I don't know how the horizontal stabilizer is constructed on a 767 (or any airliner, for that matter), could someone with knowledge explain: Do the starboard and port sides move independently from one another or are they interconnected? Or, to more detail, does each side have its own actuator or is there a single one in the center controlling the movement? Also, is the stabilizer moving as a whole, having the same function as the elevators on other models, or does the 767 have elevator surfaces?
The point I'm aiming at: If the sides can move independently, a simultaneous failure of both creating downward motion should be less probable than with a common actuator. So a faulty actuator could initiate a downward motion in the latter case. but what would happen if one of two actuators fails? Could one be moved to counteract the others motion, or would this put too much stress on the tailplane, possibly causing it to fail?
Would a single faulty elevator cause the plane to flip? So far there has been no mention of it going down inverted or spiralling, so I think that wasn't the case. At least on the surveillance video that should be recognizable, and I guess the investigators would have mentioned such an unusual flight state.
Maybe a bit far fetched, but is there a chance that the inputs from the flight deck were inverted? Like, pilots trying to pull up, but instead the control surfaces push the plane down?
Also, comparing this to the aforementioned AS flight, and looking at the flight path that was published, what are the chances of a stabilizer malfunction causing the short climb and the counteractions of the pilots resulting in complete failure of a part leading to an unrecoverable dive? Reading that it took the AS crew 7000 ft to recover from the first dive and in the final dive they did not communicate to ATC anymore, I find the latter quite similar to this and at only 7000 ft this maybe was just too low for any actions to work?
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:09 pm

The following investigation and report will be very interesting. I wish they’d release the security tape from that Jail sooner than later.
 
EK77WNH
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:50 pm

Since the vertical stabilizer was found at the scene, it doesn't parallel the AA A300 crash in NYC. But are there any similarities? I know that one was wake-turbulence-related, but still...
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