IAHWorldflyer
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Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:01 pm

Reading through the posts, I don't see where anyone has provided a summary as to what is going on at the crash scene. So here it goes...

As of yesterday afternoon 2/26, searchers had found the remains of the third body with the help of cadaver dogs. These remains were not with the other 2 bodies previously recovered. These remains were not fully intact, and the NTSB has stated that this was due to the vast impact force of the crash. The tail section has been identified, as well as the cockpit section and the wings. Today searchers will try to work around the tail section in hopes of finding the CVR. Shallow water dredging equipment has been brought in. They intend to first start "sweeping" the water, and will later start to work on removing items from the sub-surface mud. Due to bad weather in the Houston area yesterday, work had to be halted several times. Today's weather is much more calm.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:13 pm

CitizenJustin wrote:
I wish they’d release the security tape from that Jail sooner than later.

Hmmm, I don’t expect much information from that video. Most probably you will just see an aircraft nosediving but I cannot imagine you will see the reason for the nosedive... similar to the video footage of the B737 crash in Russia some years ago.
 
bennett123
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:17 pm

If the tail section was found with the rest of the wreckage, this would to indicate that it did not separate prior to impact.

Obviously, this depends on how much of the tail was found.
 
aumaverick
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:45 pm

IAHWorldflyer wrote:
Reading through the posts, I don't see where anyone has provided a summary as to what is going on at the crash scene. So here it goes...

As of yesterday afternoon 2/26, searchers had found the remains of the third body with the help of cadaver dogs. These remains were not with the other 2 bodies previously recovered. These remains were not fully intact, and the NTSB has stated that this was due to the vast impact force of the crash. The tail section has been identified, as well as the cockpit section and the wings. Today searchers will try to work around the tail section in hopes of finding the CVR. Shallow water dredging equipment has been brought in. They intend to first start "sweeping" the water, and will later start to work on removing items from the sub-surface mud. Due to bad weather in the Houston area yesterday, work had to be halted several times. Today's weather is much more calm.



Much obliged to your summary facts as of this time.
I'm just here so I won't get fined. - Marshawn Lynch
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:20 pm

Coincidence or should we be revisiting the thermal runaway/cargo fire idea once again? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1QG1XI

PHMSA said it was finalizing the rules on an expedited basis to address “an immediate safety hazard”.
 
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FredrikHAD
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:32 pm

bennett123 wrote:
If the tail section was found with the rest of the wreckage, this would to indicate that it did not separate prior to impact.

Obviously, this depends on how much of the tail was found.

We already knew [a part of] the vertical stab was in the debris field. There are pics and videos showing that. When they say the tail section was found, they cannot possibly know all of it was there, but they have probably located enough pieces to establish that it was at least fairly intact.

/Fredrik
 
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litz
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:54 pm

OlafW wrote:
AirlineCritic wrote:
It is a scary thought that something in the back breaks, causes an unfixable control surfaces deflection, and the people in front suddenly become helpless passengers.


As I don't know how the horizontal stabilizer is constructed on a 767 (or any airliner, for that matter), could someone with knowledge explain: Do the starboard and port sides move independently from one another or are they interconnected? Or, to more detail, does each side have its own actuator or is there a single one in the center controlling the movement? Also, is the stabilizer moving as a whole, having the same function as the elevators on other models, or does the 767 have elevator surfaces?


Generally, the horizontal stabilizer moves as a unit, with one side hinged, and the other connected to a jackscrew, which moves the entire assembly up/down as required, changing its angle. If you look at the rear fuselage where the stab moves, you'll usually see a small polished area of aluminum, which is the rub area for the movement (and is usually lightly greased to allow said movement).

On the stabilizer itself, you have the left/right elevators, which are independent of each other.

In the Emery Worldwide Flight 17 crash, the DC-8 suffered a malfunction in one elevator, which caused it to jam in a fully deflected position ... which rendered the airplane uncontrollable. In this case, the affected side was jammed, while the unaffected side worked normally.

In another example, an Ameristar MD-83 Charter (carrying the Michigan Wolverines basketball team) rejected its takeoff when the pilots noticed when they went to rotate, the airplane ... didn't ... so they rejected the takeoff. One elevator was found jammed in the down position, so as soon as enough airflow was established, the airplane was basically attempting to pitch down (despite a pitch up command from the flight deck), forcing the nose down onto the runway. Not good!

Each of these cases demonstrate the independence of the elevators, vs the common horizontal stabilizer itself.

As for how it works on the 767, someone at MIT wrote a paper on it :

https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/mechanical- ... case04.pdf
 
wjcandee
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:56 pm

Let's hope there is a reasonably-modern DFDR on this thing. Do we know what they're expecting to find?
 
orbital
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:12 pm

Posts like this are the best reason to hang around here. I sincerely appreciate when I learn something new, even during discussions about a terrible tragedy. Thanks for the link!

As for how it works on the 767, someone at MIT wrote a paper on it :

https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/mechanical- ... case04.pdf[/quote]
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:35 pm

Enjoyed the paper.... but the paper is on two different processes to build the h.stab other than the way Vought built it.
See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOA3QIOfj4Q for how the h.stab and elevators work.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:57 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Let's hope there is a reasonably-modern DFDR on this thing. Do we know what they're expecting to find?


Despite being a 1986 variant of a 1982 model, I would think the stab-related EICAS messages (see video above) would at least be monitored on the tape.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
lparky
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:11 pm

 
CO953
Posts: 515
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:11 pm

Having read the entire thread, and thinking about it, just some general feedback from my end. I'm not a pilot, but have followed aviation for 40 years. I like to read large amounts of material and then try to step back and look to the big picture.

First, I take known facts and then remember the "Swiss cheese" model and realize that, aside from very rare catastrophic failure of the airframe, there will almost always be several interacting factors.

Looking at this one, I see several main areas to think about:

1. The weather. I live a couple hundred miles east of the site. Looking at the radar, no it was not a huge front in the big scheme of things. However, I recognize the shape of that front, having had many of them sweep from west to east over my place. Fronts shaped just like that do sometimes generate vortices enough to bring down large branches on my property. Could such a vortex have unluckily coincided with the left turn, amplifying it and contributing to loss of control?

2. Linked with #1, the left turn. Why? Was mechanical trouble starting? I don't recall yet seeing a whole lot of analysis on the thread about the details and the "why" of the turn, aside from several posts saying that the weather was not overly bad, or that there was an attempt to avoid populated areas.

3. The lack of communication, to me, rules out a fuel issue. Unless the tanks just split open mid-flight (which would have been accompanied by disintegration of the airframe), the crew would have noticed and communicated, and certainly the plane could glide. Let me piggyback upon other posters who have mentioned that Trinity Bay is not clean. There is widespread petrochemical pollution as compared to, say, Santa Monica Bay off of LAX, and I think that the passing front would have stirred up the waters sufficiently to possibly mask a concentration of Jet-A, not to mention that such a hard impact would also likely have done much to scatter/atomize remaining fuel. It would be interesting to know Atlas' typical fuel load for a leg such as this.

4. Birds. Loads of birds in that area. I've read a lot of comments here that they're not an issue at 7,000 feet. I defer to the pilots. We do get Canadian geese this time of year down South. Hit a flock and one engine goes out, long enough to throw the flight out of envelope, and then the second engine goes, and so no recovery?

5. This could mean nothing, due to the highly concentrated forces of the accident - (and I understand that this is not a pleasant subject for the unfortunate families) but I was surprised by how quickly that remains of two of the occupants were found, but that it took longer to find the third. To me, this has to at least leave the door open to the possibility that one occupant was elsewhere in the aircraft than the other two. This leaves open thinking that either there were two people in the cockpit and one elsewhere, or the reverse. Reasons could range from one person checking on a cargo problem, maybe a late restroom trip, to trying to get a better visual or audio on something related to the aircraft, to an actual bad actor situation. Again, none of this may apply, and the delay on finding the third victim may be just a simple result of crash forces.

5. Going back to Swiss cheese, remember that some speculation on the Lion Air crash focused on the fact the the crew made an apparent attempted turn back to the airport, right about the time of losing control, after having fought with the trim for awhile. Turns are inherently destabilizing. Is is possible that the left turn, no matter the reason, destabilized the aircraft within the flight envelope = maybe due to an unknown flight-control issue which the crew were already fighting? Or maybe something in the elevator/stabilizer, etc. picked that moment to jam? I am now very curious for some granular analysis of the exact timing of the turn, and to whether there was any indication of flight anomaly before that turn. Doesn't it seem that the turn was either voluntary due to the weather, or involuntary due to a problem with the aircraft? Or maybe the turn began as a voluntary act, but then involuntary responses to an unknown aircraft problem followed?

To recap: Weather, turn, reported lack of significant fuel sheen, possibly one occupant not near the others, mechanical issue associated with the left turn, birds.

Those are some thoughts. Maybe some have been answered, because I am very busy and maybe I am forgetting some of what I read a few days ago.
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
Posts: 814
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:02 am

CO953 wrote:
Having read the entire thread, and thinking about it, just some general feedback from my end. I'm not a pilot, but have followed aviation for 40 years. I like to read large amounts of material and then try to step back and look to the big picture.

First, I take known facts and then remember the "Swiss cheese" model and realize that, aside from very rare catastrophic failure of the airframe, there will almost always be several interacting factors.

Looking at this one, I see several main areas to think about:

1. The weather. I live a couple hundred miles east of the site. Looking at the radar, no it was not a huge front in the big scheme of things. However, I recognize the shape of that front, having had many of them sweep from west to east over my place. Fronts shaped just like that do sometimes generate vortices enough to bring down large branches on my property. Could such a vortex have unluckily coincided with the left turn, amplifying it and contributing to loss of control?

2. Linked with #1, the left turn. Why? Was mechanical trouble starting? I don't recall yet seeing a whole lot of analysis on the thread about the details and the "why" of the turn, aside from several posts saying that the weather was not overly bad, or that there was an attempt to avoid populated areas.

3. The lack of communication, to me, rules out a fuel issue. Unless the tanks just split open mid-flight (which would have been accompanied by disintegration of the airframe), the crew would have noticed and communicated, and certainly the plane could glide. Let me piggyback upon other posters who have mentioned that Trinity Bay is not clean. There is widespread petrochemical pollution as compared to, say, Santa Monica Bay off of LAX, and I think that the passing front would have stirred up the waters sufficiently to possibly mask a concentration of Jet-A, not to mention that such a hard impact would also likely have done much to scatter/atomize remaining fuel. It would be interesting to know Atlas' typical fuel load for a leg such as this.

4. Birds. Loads of birds in that area. I've read a lot of comments here that they're not an issue at 7,000 feet. I defer to the pilots. We do get Canadian geese this time of year down South. Hit a flock and one engine goes out, long enough to throw the flight out of envelope, and then the second engine goes, and so no recovery?

5. This could mean nothing, due to the highly concentrated forces of the accident - (and I understand that this is not a pleasant subject for the unfortunate families) but I was surprised by how quickly that remains of two of the occupants were found, but that it took longer to find the third. To me, this has to at least leave the door open to the possibility that one occupant was elsewhere in the aircraft than the other two. This leaves open thinking that either there were two people in the cockpit and one elsewhere, or the reverse. Reasons could range from one person checking on a cargo problem, maybe a late restroom trip, to trying to get a better visual or audio on something related to the aircraft, to an actual bad actor situation. Again, none of this may apply, and the delay on finding the third victim may be just a simple result of crash forces.

5. Going back to Swiss cheese, remember that some speculation on the Lion Air crash focused on the fact the the crew made an apparent attempted turn back to the airport, right about the time of losing control, after having fought with the trim for awhile. Turns are inherently destabilizing. Is is possible that the left turn, no matter the reason, destabilized the aircraft within the flight envelope = maybe due to an unknown flight-control issue which the crew were already fighting? Or maybe something in the elevator/stabilizer, etc. picked that moment to jam? I am now very curious for some granular analysis of the exact timing of the turn, and to whether there was any indication of flight anomaly before that turn. Doesn't it seem that the turn was either voluntary due to the weather, or involuntary due to a problem with the aircraft? Or maybe the turn began as a voluntary act, but then involuntary responses to an unknown aircraft problem followed?

To recap: Weather, turn, reported lack of significant fuel sheen, possibly one occupant not near the others, mechanical issue associated with the left turn, birds.

Those are some thoughts. Maybe some have been answered, because I am very busy and maybe I am forgetting some of what I read a few days ago.


An outstanding analysis. In my mind, I went through a lot of the same thoughts, and I'm glad a resident/native from the area could add the knowledge of the birds.

I hope the CVR survived (I have missed to this point if the recorder has been recovered). Too many mysteries and unusual data remind me of the Staines crash in 1972, where the lack of a CVR meant no one could ever know what caused the crew to stall the airplane twice. The answer may be there, and it may be not.
 
astaz
Posts: 71
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:07 am

lparky wrote:


The video makes it real tough to know for sure, lots of shadowing. However, I’m starting to wonder if the horizontal stab is attached in the video.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1349
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:07 am

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
CO953 wrote:
Having read the entire thread, and thinking about it, just some general feedback from my end. I'm not a pilot, but have followed aviation for 40 years. I like to read large amounts of material and then try to step back and look to the big picture.

First, I take known facts and then remember the "Swiss cheese" model and realize that, aside from very rare catastrophic failure of the airframe, there will almost always be several interacting factors.

Looking at this one, I see several main areas to think about:

1. The weather. I live a couple hundred miles east of the site. Looking at the radar, no it was not a huge front in the big scheme of things. However, I recognize the shape of that front, having had many of them sweep from west to east over my place. Fronts shaped just like that do sometimes generate vortices enough to bring down large branches on my property. Could such a vortex have unluckily coincided with the left turn, amplifying it and contributing to loss of control?

2. Linked with #1, the left turn. Why? Was mechanical trouble starting? I don't recall yet seeing a whole lot of analysis on the thread about the details and the "why" of the turn, aside from several posts saying that the weather was not overly bad, or that there was an attempt to avoid populated areas.

3. The lack of communication, to me, rules out a fuel issue. Unless the tanks just split open mid-flight (which would have been accompanied by disintegration of the airframe), the crew would have noticed and communicated, and certainly the plane could glide. Let me piggyback upon other posters who have mentioned that Trinity Bay is not clean. There is widespread petrochemical pollution as compared to, say, Santa Monica Bay off of LAX, and I think that the passing front would have stirred up the waters sufficiently to possibly mask a concentration of Jet-A, not to mention that such a hard impact would also likely have done much to scatter/atomize remaining fuel. It would be interesting to know Atlas' typical fuel load for a leg such as this.

4. Birds. Loads of birds in that area. I've read a lot of comments here that they're not an issue at 7,000 feet. I defer to the pilots. We do get Canadian geese this time of year down South. Hit a flock and one engine goes out, long enough to throw the flight out of envelope, and then the second engine goes, and so no recovery?

5. This could mean nothing, due to the highly concentrated forces of the accident - (and I understand that this is not a pleasant subject for the unfortunate families) but I was surprised by how quickly that remains of two of the occupants were found, but that it took longer to find the third. To me, this has to at least leave the door open to the possibility that one occupant was elsewhere in the aircraft than the other two. This leaves open thinking that either there were two people in the cockpit and one elsewhere, or the reverse. Reasons could range from one person checking on a cargo problem, maybe a late restroom trip, to trying to get a better visual or audio on something related to the aircraft, to an actual bad actor situation. Again, none of this may apply, and the delay on finding the third victim may be just a simple result of crash forces.

5. Going back to Swiss cheese, remember that some speculation on the Lion Air crash focused on the fact the the crew made an apparent attempted turn back to the airport, right about the time of losing control, after having fought with the trim for awhile. Turns are inherently destabilizing. Is is possible that the left turn, no matter the reason, destabilized the aircraft within the flight envelope = maybe due to an unknown flight-control issue which the crew were already fighting? Or maybe something in the elevator/stabilizer, etc. picked that moment to jam? I am now very curious for some granular analysis of the exact timing of the turn, and to whether there was any indication of flight anomaly before that turn. Doesn't it seem that the turn was either voluntary due to the weather, or involuntary due to a problem with the aircraft? Or maybe the turn began as a voluntary act, but then involuntary responses to an unknown aircraft problem followed?

To recap: Weather, turn, reported lack of significant fuel sheen, possibly one occupant not near the others, mechanical issue associated with the left turn, birds.

Those are some thoughts. Maybe some have been answered, because I am very busy and maybe I am forgetting some of what I read a few days ago.


An outstanding analysis. In my mind, I went through a lot of the same thoughts, and I'm glad a resident/native from the area could add the knowledge of the birds.

I hope the CVR survived (I have missed to this point if the recorder has been recovered). Too many mysteries and unusual data remind me of the Staines crash in 1972, where the lack of a CVR meant no one could ever know what caused the crew to stall the airplane twice. The answer may be there, and it may be not.


I'm pretty sure most people accept the findings of why the BEA jet stalled and crashed. The crew were pissed at each other and not following proper procedure.
 
Philbky
Posts: 9
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:22 am

Can someone put a frame by frame version of the aircraft in the TV report up? The aircraft is moving too quickly to be sure but are the horizontal stabilisers (tailplane) present? If they are missing I refer to my earlier post concerning the 1977 Dan Air 707 crash at Lusaka.
 
estorilm
Posts: 686
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:33 am

Jouhou wrote:
Coincidence or should we be revisiting the thermal runaway/cargo fire idea once again? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1QG1XI

PHMSA said it was finalizing the rules on an expedited basis to address “an immediate safety hazard”.

As far as I know (and in direct response to previous incidents) there are EXTENSIVE fire/smoke-detection provisions on these aircraft now. They should have had PLENTY of time to at least advise center and/or declare an emergency before it hypothetically destroyed all means of control and communication simultaneously.

I literally can not think of a single scenario (regardless of intensity) where there would be zero communication. I'd also expect the aircraft to do something other than a single simple and predictable arc straight into the ground.
 
HPRamper
Posts: 4947
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:41 am

WPvsMW wrote:
Whale or other freight ops members can answer based on more experience, but I don't think anyone would get out of the harness when flying into a large cold front with bright red cells ahead. At my old airline (using combis), no one EVER went into the freight area en route.


This is not to mention the fact that if this aircraft were fully loaded, there is not really any room to go into the cargo area. One can open a door and look at the first couple of containers, but there's no space to walk back through the body of the aircraft. Those containers are generally half-contour symmetrical.
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 615
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:53 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:48 am

astaz wrote:
lparky wrote:


The video makes it real tough to know for sure, lots of shadowing. However, I’m starting to wonder if the horizontal stab is attached in the video.


I thought the stabilizers were both found within the 200m crash site?
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
PC12Fan
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Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2007 11:50 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:51 am

astaz wrote:
lparky wrote:


The video makes it real tough to know for sure, lots of shadowing. However, I’m starting to wonder if the horizontal stab is attached in the video.


Going full screen, it looks intact but it's hard to tell how much of it is intact.
Just when I think you've said the stupidest thing ever, you keep talkin'!
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 3544
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:53 am

It’s not that the stabilizers or elevators departed the airframe, the question is whether either were in a “hardcover” nose down position. The only thing I got out of the video is it was on a steep descent and the weather probably wasn’t an issue-decent visibility.

GF
 
Murdoughnut
Posts: 67
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2009 11:27 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:54 am

Interesting that nobody has suggested the idea that the plane may have been purposely brought down - considering as how that’s been the cause of two-thirds of fatal accidents on the 767.

I certainly hope not, but if you’re speculating without anything solid to go on...
 
cooljay
Posts: 4
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2017 10:45 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:05 am

Just from what little is in the video it looks like everything is intact (not that I thought that was the cause) and wx looked fine. No smoke or obvious signs of a fire or engine issue but than again we only have a few frames of not so good quality video there too. Hoping they find the CVR and FDR soon so they can put this mystery to rest.
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
Posts: 814
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:38 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:41 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
CO953 wrote:
Having read the entire thread, and thinking about it, just some general feedback from my end. I'm not a pilot, but have followed aviation for 40 years. I like to read large amounts of material and then try to step back and look to the big picture.

First, I take known facts and then remember the "Swiss cheese" model and realize that, aside from very rare catastrophic failure of the airframe, there will almost always be several interacting factors.

Looking at this one, I see several main areas to think about:

1. The weather. I live a couple hundred miles east of the site. Looking at the radar, no it was not a huge front in the big scheme of things. However, I recognize the shape of that front, having had many of them sweep from west to east over my place. Fronts shaped just like that do sometimes generate vortices enough to bring down large branches on my property. Could such a vortex have unluckily coincided with the left turn, amplifying it and contributing to loss of control?

2. Linked with #1, the left turn. Why? Was mechanical trouble starting? I don't recall yet seeing a whole lot of analysis on the thread about the details and the "why" of the turn, aside from several posts saying that the weather was not overly bad, or that there was an attempt to avoid populated areas.

3. The lack of communication, to me, rules out a fuel issue. Unless the tanks just split open mid-flight (which would have been accompanied by disintegration of the airframe), the crew would have noticed and communicated, and certainly the plane could glide. Let me piggyback upon other posters who have mentioned that Trinity Bay is not clean. There is widespread petrochemical pollution as compared to, say, Santa Monica Bay off of LAX, and I think that the passing front would have stirred up the waters sufficiently to possibly mask a concentration of Jet-A, not to mention that such a hard impact would also likely have done much to scatter/atomize remaining fuel. It would be interesting to know Atlas' typical fuel load for a leg such as this.

4. Birds. Loads of birds in that area. I've read a lot of comments here that they're not an issue at 7,000 feet. I defer to the pilots. We do get Canadian geese this time of year down South. Hit a flock and one engine goes out, long enough to throw the flight out of envelope, and then the second engine goes, and so no recovery?

5. This could mean nothing, due to the highly concentrated forces of the accident - (and I understand that this is not a pleasant subject for the unfortunate families) but I was surprised by how quickly that remains of two of the occupants were found, but that it took longer to find the third. To me, this has to at least leave the door open to the possibility that one occupant was elsewhere in the aircraft than the other two. This leaves open thinking that either there were two people in the cockpit and one elsewhere, or the reverse. Reasons could range from one person checking on a cargo problem, maybe a late restroom trip, to trying to get a better visual or audio on something related to the aircraft, to an actual bad actor situation. Again, none of this may apply, and the delay on finding the third victim may be just a simple result of crash forces.

5. Going back to Swiss cheese, remember that some speculation on the Lion Air crash focused on the fact the the crew made an apparent attempted turn back to the airport, right about the time of losing control, after having fought with the trim for awhile. Turns are inherently destabilizing. Is is possible that the left turn, no matter the reason, destabilized the aircraft within the flight envelope = maybe due to an unknown flight-control issue which the crew were already fighting? Or maybe something in the elevator/stabilizer, etc. picked that moment to jam? I am now very curious for some granular analysis of the exact timing of the turn, and to whether there was any indication of flight anomaly before that turn. Doesn't it seem that the turn was either voluntary due to the weather, or involuntary due to a problem with the aircraft? Or maybe the turn began as a voluntary act, but then involuntary responses to an unknown aircraft problem followed?

To recap: Weather, turn, reported lack of significant fuel sheen, possibly one occupant not near the others, mechanical issue associated with the left turn, birds.

Those are some thoughts. Maybe some have been answered, because I am very busy and maybe I am forgetting some of what I read a few days ago.


An outstanding analysis. In my mind, I went through a lot of the same thoughts, and I'm glad a resident/native from the area could add the knowledge of the birds.

I hope the CVR survived (I have missed to this point if the recorder has been recovered). Too many mysteries and unusual data remind me of the Staines crash in 1972, where the lack of a CVR meant no one could ever know what caused the crew to stall the airplane twice. The answer may be there, and it may be not.


I'm pretty sure most people accept the findings of why the BEA jet stalled and crashed. The crew were pissed at each other and not following proper procedure.


There is considerable doubt as to the physical condition of Captain Stanley Key at the point where the droops were retracted, and an autopsy showed atherosclerosis and evidence of an event within the last two hours. This cannot be proven nor disproven as a cause of the loss of control. Add in the incredibly young and inexperienced junior flight crew who would have deferred to anything this very senior captain would have commanded, a collapse onto the controls, and without a CVR we cannot ever know for sure.
 
fdxtulmech
Posts: 12
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:45 am

Don't suppose anybody has any information on the load they where carrying? Was it full? Did they have a bunch of voided positions? Just curious if there was the possibility of a shift in CG due to some of the cans coming loose in the turbulence. Shouldn't be a way for them to come loose, but nothing is ever impossible.
 
Yakflyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:30 am

I truly have no idea what might have caused this accident. I am a retired pilot with type ratings in the 727, 757, 767 and 777 and several thousand hours in all versions of the 767. There are a lot of people here who are speculating on whether or not the plane may have lost some part of the horizontal stab. I will offer the following not as my opinion, but rather as a possibility following up on the idea the loss of control being caused by a loss of the horizontal stab. I refer back to the Alaska Airlines Flight 261 accident where the jackscrew that controlled the horizontal stab on the Alaska MD-83 stripped out the threads in the fitting on the stab and the stab became uncontrollable. I doubt the same thing is possible on a 767, but I suppose there may be some other failure that could have rendered the stab uncontrollable. Perhaps the 767 was exposed to a shock from wind shear or turbulence that caused a failure int he stab control system. Again I offer this not as my theory, but as a follow up to those who would like to blame this on a separation of the stab. It might be possible.
 
GSPSPOT
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:50 am

Why does the aircraft in the video disappear well before reaching the horizon, with no discernable low clouds present?
Great Lakes, great life.
 
KICT
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:14 am

...and there is recent history for pilot suicides including MH370 (likely), the E190 in Africa, and the Germanwings flight.
People are saying. Believe me.
 
Curiousflyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:35 am

My theory is that the plane took a steep turn either because the pilots wanted to avoid clouds or because of a burst of wind. The cargo moved inside the plane, the plane’s angle of attack got too steep and it stalled.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:37 am

Murdoughnut wrote:
Interesting that nobody has suggested the idea that the plane may have been purposely brought down.


I'm guessing you haven't read the thread?

Curiousflyer wrote:
My theory is that the plane took a steep turn either because the pilots wanted to avoid clouds or because of a burst of wind. The cargo moved inside the plane, the plane’s angle of attack got too steep and it stalled.


Where would the cargo have moved to?
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
smartplane
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:39 am

When converted to F, does the aircraft get new software? For example, to compensate for potentially different weight distribution compared to passenger aircraft configuration, does the 767F get a version of MCAS (or different name - similar objectives)?
 
Lrockeagle
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:44 am

With no radio calls I’m inclined towards a minor problem and some kind of AF447 mixup on the flight deck.
You don’t lawndart when you run out of fuel. Wake turb would already be known and shouldn’t be a prob at that altitude, that’s the only reason I can see for things to seperate from the aircraft other than gross negligence, normal descent followed by level flight prior to lawndart mode engage.
I’d be surprised if it’s anything other than pilot error with compounding factors or just suicide
Lrockeagle
14 years ago

I got $20 says AA takes their 787's with GE powerplants. Just a hunch. Any takers?
 
TSS
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:58 am

GSPSPOT wrote:
Why does the aircraft in the video disappear well before reaching the horizon, with no discernable low clouds present?


The low clouds are there, they're just not discernible due to the very low resolution of the video. You can see the aircraft pass over a thin, outlying patch of cloud before disappearing behind another, thicker cloud in the video.
Able to kill active threads stone dead with a single post!
 
VS11
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:09 am

One possible factor that I have been thinking about is improper loading. What if the airplane was not properly loaded and the situation became worse as fuel got burnt affecting weight and CG?

The following is taken from the "Pilot's Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge" - page 142.
https://www.faa.gov/regulations_policie ... ndbook.pdf

"Another factor affecting controllability, which has become more important in current designs of large aircraft, is the effect of long moment arms to the positions of heavy equipment and cargo. The same aircraft may be loaded to maximum gross weight within its CG limits by concentrating fuel, passengers, and cargo near the design CG, or by dispersing fuel and cargo loads in wingtip tanks and cargo bins forward and aft of the cabin.

With the same total weight and CG, maneuvering the aircraft or maintaining level flight in turbulent air requires the application of greater control forces when the load is dispersed. The longer moment arms to the positions of the heavy fuel and cargo loads must be overcome by the action of the control surfaces. An aircraft with full outboard wing tanks or tip tanks tends to be sluggish in roll when control situations are marginal, while one with full nose and aft cargo bins tends to be less responsive to the elevator controls.

The rearward CG limit of an aircraft is determined largely by considerations of stability. The original airworthiness requirements for a type certificate specify that an aircraft in flight at a certain speed dampens out vertical displacement of the nose within a certain number of oscillations. An aircraft loaded too far rearward may not do this. Instead, when the nose is momentarily pulled up, it may alternately climb and dive becoming steeper with each oscillation. This instability is not only uncomfortable to occupants, but it could even become dangerous by making the aircraft unmanageable under certain conditions."
 
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SuperGee
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:12 am

I would be interested in knowing the amount of time elapsed from the pilot's last response to ATC (I believe it was the word "OK") and the time on that video showing the plane headed towards the ground. It should be possible to obtain by matching the timing on the ATC tape with the timestamp on the video and I'm sure investigators have probably already done it. Matching the ATC tape with the time it disappeared from radar should provide much the same information.

Does anyone know if it was split-seconds? Seconds? Minutes?
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:54 am

estorilm wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Coincidence or should we be revisiting the thermal runaway/cargo fire idea once again? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1QG1XI

PHMSA said it was finalizing the rules on an expedited basis to address “an immediate safety hazard”.

As far as I know (and in direct response to previous incidents) there are EXTENSIVE fire/smoke-detection provisions on these aircraft now. They should have had PLENTY of time to at least advise center and/or declare an emergency before it hypothetically destroyed all means of control and communication simultaneously.

I literally can not think of a single scenario (regardless of intensity) where there would be zero communication. I'd also expect the aircraft to do something other than a single simple and predictable arc straight into the ground.


There is so such thing as a scenario that hasn't happened before. I was wondering if they had found evidence of scorching indicative of a thermal runaway that may not be definitive proof of what happened but prompted them to ask the question why current regulations still allow the possibility for such a scenario to happen. Also in the case of MS804, they had a cockpit fire likely caused by a thermal runaway in a personal electronic device, and from a much higher altitude they ended up taking a very steep dive with no communication. They were occupied with fighting the fire and lost the battle. (I'm going with the French explanation of what happened, Egypt torpedoed their own credibility throughout that whole thing)
Last edited by Jouhou on Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
TSS
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:58 am

VS11 wrote:
One possible factor that I have been thinking about is improper loading. What if the airplane was not properly loaded and the situation became worse as fuel got burnt affecting weight and CG?

Unlikely in this situation because it was a Prime Air plane carrying nothing but Amazon merchandise, either on pallets or in containers, so no specifically heavy single articles like a large vehicle or piece of industrial equipment. I haven't seen a manifest, but I would further imagine the cargo bay was fully loaded with pallets and/or containers from stem to stern making the load evenly distributed from front to rear.
Able to kill active threads stone dead with a single post!
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:00 am

SuperGee wrote:
I would be interested in knowing the amount of time elapsed from the pilot's last response to ATC (I believe it was the word "OK") and the time on that video showing the plane headed towards the ground. It should be possible to obtain by matching the timing on the ATC tape with the timestamp on the video and I'm sure investigators have probably already done it. Matching the ATC tape with the time it disappeared from radar should provide much the same information.

Does anyone know if it was split-seconds? Seconds? Minutes?


I asked the same question up thread, no one answered. The times given or approximated for the atc communications, the beginning of the steep descent and the actual impact don't make sense from what I've been able to find and indicate out of sync clocks more than anything.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:12 am

IIRC, US operators' aircraft, ATC, and airports are synched within 1 second of UTC.
https://www.icao.int/Meetings/anconf12/ ... 1.1.EN.pdf
After implementation of Precision Time Protocol, synch will be within microseconds of UTC.

If you mean camcorder time, security camera time, there is no sync.
 
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FredrikHAD
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:55 am

A camcorder is generally not time synced at all, unless manually synced, which makes for poor precision and time drift which may be seconds every day. A security camera can very well be synced using NTP (Network Time Protocol). Servers for NTP are freely accessible over the Internet and most systems support NTP. Unfortunately, most people configuring such systems are not aware of this and don’t configure NTP. NTP can provide sub-millisecond precision.

PTP, or IEEE1588v2, provides even better time sync (as MPvsMV stated) and is used extensively by cell phone network operators. It wouild be a challenge though to use that in an aircraft as a stable network connection would be required. It could then be synced while on ground and then have its own internal clock in-flight. Unless the internal clock is an expensive one, it would have poor precision long-term, but if synced semi-daily, precision could be within 1/10 of a second anyway (similar to a PC computer clock).
 
Murdoughnut
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:23 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Murdoughnut wrote:
Interesting that nobody has suggested the idea that the plane may have been purposely brought down.


I'm guessing you haven't read the thread?

Curiousflyer wrote:
My theory is that the plane took a steep turn either because the pilots wanted to avoid clouds or because of a burst of wind. The cargo moved inside the plane, the plane’s angle of attack got too steep and it stalled.


Where would the cargo have moved to?


Not all of it, admittedly - got to this thread late and browsed, so apologies if I missed discussion related to this.
 
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Gonzalo
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:44 pm

lparky wrote:


Is this video recording running at normal speed ?? Because if it is not fast forwarded, then the aircraft was at a speed not compatible with a simple loss of control at a relatively low altitude. In the initial posts of the thread someone said the rate of descent was extremely high ( above 26.000 fpm IIRC), and this video could be the confirmation of that numbers. Something doesn´t fit here...This crew was descending to perform the approach and reducing speed, probably close to start the change of configuration, maybe using speed brakes, and then, in just a couple of seconds, the change from a controlled / stabilized flight to a steep dive at more than 26.000 fpm from 6.000 or 7.000 ft ?? I can´t remember the last altitude readings before the start of the dive but doesn´t seems to be enough to accelerate that fast as a consequence of just weight and gravity forces.
Maybe the witness talking about the engines running at full power on the final moments were not so crazy or "uneducated" after all ??
I really hope the investigators can find/use the FDR / CVR, and I really hope after the final report we can rule out another intentional crash in this case. This industry already has enough examples of dramatic decisions taken by pilots with mental health issues ( Silk Air, Egypt Air, Germanwings, most probably MH370 ). If this is another one, that will be the worst result for everyone, family/realtives/friends of the crew, airline/company, regulators, and all of us who love aviation and feel so angry with this situations.
I really really hope for a different main cause in this tragic event, no matter if it is weather, mechanic, or just a pilot error, but I really hope this was not intentional.

Rgds.

G.
Gear Up!!: DC-3 / EMB-110 / FH-227 / A318-19-20-21 / B732 / B763 / B789 / B788 / A343 / ATR72-600
 
KICT
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:44 pm

Curiousflyer wrote:
My theory is that the plane took a steep turn either because the pilots wanted to avoid clouds or because of a burst of wind. The cargo moved inside the plane, the plane’s angle of attack got too steep and it stalled.

Theories require evidence.
People are saying. Believe me.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:48 pm

Well, if evidence is a requirement the whole thread can be tossed out.

GF
 
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Pudelhund
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:53 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Well, if evidence is a requirement the whole thread can be tossed out.

GF


Not what KICT is referring to. The word "theory" does not have the same meaning as "guess" or "hypothesis".
 
KICT
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:56 pm

Pudelhund wrote:
Not what KICT is referring to. The word "theory" does not have the same meaning as "guess" or "hypothesis".

Correct although the "avoiding clouds" part is quite humorous. :)
People are saying. Believe me.
 
jtamu97
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:06 pm

The ATC recordings still baffle me a bit. First the pilot making the initial call is not the pilot requesting the deviation. Secondly, the pilot requesting the deviation makes a request to deviate West. This does not make a lot of sense as on the arrival, the aircraft is flying N NW so a deviation to the West would place it in the direction of the oncoming weather as the previous controller informed them the line was moving West to East. Once that request was declined, the same pilot then requested a deviation to the East. This would make a some sense but assuming the aircraft is traveling N NW a deviation to the East is pretty drastic as a deviation to the N would make a little more sense.

What is hard to tell is when these requests were made in relation the direction of travel. At any rate we do have one fact where 2 different pilots were making transmissions. The second voice definitely sounds stressed as he did step on the controller and could quite possibly be disoriented as I just don't see why a West or East deviation would be requested.

While it is critical in every investigation to recover the black boxes, I as all the rest of us hope they will answer more questions rather than generate others.
Propeller, we don't need no stinkin propeller
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:48 pm

The flight was southeast of KIAH, heading northwest on the arrival. Somewhere here is a NEXRAD picture of the weather, the turn west makes a lot sense as it put the flight on track to the weaker weather returns.

GF
 
klm617
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:01 pm

Might this be a case as the same thing with EA 663 at JFK in 1965 making some sort of sharp maneuver and then getting disorientated in the clouds with no point of reference.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...

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