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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:45 pm
by buzzard302
enilria wrote:
Am I crazy or is that one of the most unclearly caused crashes over land in like decades? Usually there is a thread from the first day that ends up being close to the cause, but I see nothing here.


I don't think they pegged the reason for AF447 for quite some time.

Edit, you did say over land...

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:14 pm
by mikeinatlanta
Nevermind. Not worth it.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:15 pm
by marktci
enilria wrote:
Am I crazy or is that one of the most unclearly caused crashes over land in like decades? Usually there is a thread from the first day that ends up being close to the cause, but I see nothing here.


If you go back on the threads of the Eurowings crash, it really wasn't until the CVR contents were leaked that pilot suicide was seriously considered as a possibility here. There were at most a handful of posts (out of a few hundred) that even considered the possibility. Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but it was interesting to look at them again and see how many different mechanical malfunction theories were being tossed around.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:15 pm
by balair863
And I foolishly thought that this was the only forum for armchair investigative experts. Shame on me!

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:18 pm
by enilria
marktci wrote:
enilria wrote:
Am I crazy or is that one of the most unclearly caused crashes over land in like decades? Usually there is a thread from the first day that ends up being close to the cause, but I see nothing here.


If you go back on the threads of the Eurowings crash, it really wasn't until the CVR contents were leaked that pilot suicide was seriously considered as a possibility here. There were at most a handful of posts (out of a few hundred) that even considered the possibility. Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but it was interesting to look at them again and see how many different mechanical malfunction theories were being tossed around.

What are the arguments against a weight shift like the Kalitta in Iraq?

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:23 pm
by Jouhou
enilria wrote:
marktci wrote:
enilria wrote:
Am I crazy or is that one of the most unclearly caused crashes over land in like decades? Usually there is a thread from the first day that ends up being close to the cause, but I see nothing here.


If you go back on the threads of the Eurowings crash, it really wasn't until the CVR contents were leaked that pilot suicide was seriously considered as a possibility here. There were at most a handful of posts (out of a few hundred) that even considered the possibility. Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but it was interesting to look at them again and see how many different mechanical malfunction theories were being tossed around.

What are the arguments against a weight shift like the Kalitta in Iraq?

Cargo was relatively low density Amazon packages. Not heavy equipment.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:46 pm
by wjcandee
Jouhou wrote:
enilria wrote:
What are the arguments against a weight shift like the Kalitta in Iraq?

Cargo was relatively low density Amazon packages. Not heavy equipment.


And it was essentially during straight and level flight. And if not full they normally carry a lot of empties that occupy space on the deck. And there is a standard method of securing these containers that is appropriate to the load (as opposed to a poorly-thought-out method of securing the unusual load on the National flight). And on and on.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:50 pm
by wjcandee
What I'm surprised about is that nothing seems to be leaking from the first pass at CVR review. I know that it is a painstaking process in which various parties listen to it and offer interpretations of what they hear (both voice and sounds). However, it seems like some high-level-of-abstraction information begins to come out informally about now in cases where there is a high level of media interest. ("It wasn't an intentional act." "They were talking about X issue they were dealing with but didn't think it was an emergency." "They suddenly experienced X issue." etc.)

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 12:09 am
by TSS
wjcandee wrote:
What I'm surprised about is that nothing seems to be leaking from the first pass at CVR review. I know that it is a painstaking process in which various parties listen to it and offer interpretations of what they hear (both voice and sounds). However, it seems like some high-level-of-abstraction information begins to come out informally about now in cases where there is a high level of media interest. ("It wasn't an intentional act." "They were talking about X issue they were dealing with but didn't think it was an emergency." "They suddenly experienced X issue." etc.)


Is two days long enough to fully and carefully desalinate and then completely dry out the CVR, download its data, and then analyze the data for anything interesting or unusual within?

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:23 am
by Campo
When I saw video of the crash scene I didn't notice any fuel sheen on the water. Is it possible the plane ran out of fuel?

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:25 am
by wjcandee
TSS wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
What I'm surprised about is that nothing seems to be leaking from the first pass at CVR review. I know that it is a painstaking process in which various parties listen to it and offer interpretations of what they hear (both voice and sounds). However, it seems like some high-level-of-abstraction information begins to come out informally about now in cases where there is a high level of media interest. ("It wasn't an intentional act." "They were talking about X issue they were dealing with but didn't think it was an emergency." "They suddenly experienced X issue." etc.)


Is two days long enough to fully and carefully desalinate and then completely dry out the CVR, download its data, and then analyze the data for anything interesting or unusual within?


3+ days. Not data. Voice. Like 10 minutes of it being central.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:29 am
by GalaxyFlyer
Campo wrote:
When I saw video of the crash scene I didn't notice any fuel sheen on the water. Is it possible the plane ran out of fuel?


No, that wouldn’t cause the descent already in evidence. Discussed upthread.

GF

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:30 am
by Jgsushi
Campo wrote:
When I saw video of the crash scene I didn't notice any fuel sheen on the water. Is it possible the plane ran out of fuel?

A dual engine failure from fuel starvation would cause the aircraft to glide, but this aircraft plunged. A significant downward force has to be a cause, whether from a flight control surface or external force.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:20 am
by WayexTDI
wjcandee wrote:
TSS wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
What I'm surprised about is that nothing seems to be leaking from the first pass at CVR review. I know that it is a painstaking process in which various parties listen to it and offer interpretations of what they hear (both voice and sounds). However, it seems like some high-level-of-abstraction information begins to come out informally about now in cases where there is a high level of media interest. ("It wasn't an intentional act." "They were talking about X issue they were dealing with but didn't think it was an emergency." "They suddenly experienced X issue." etc.)


Is two days long enough to fully and carefully desalinate and then completely dry out the CVR, download its data, and then analyze the data for anything interesting or unusual within?


3+ days. Not data. Voice. Like 10 minutes of it being central.

And 2 of those days were Saturday and Sunday; a lot of people in the US are on weekend those days, not sure about the NTSB though.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:40 am
by MaksFly
Spot on... This event is truly both fascinating and scary. Horrible that lives were lost but even more scary is that apparently, the plane just fell out of the sky.

As others mentioned, don't think fuel at all as it would still let the plane glide down.

Other thing I can think of would be kind of like those MD80 crashes with the loss of vertical stabilizer or some control cable getting jammed.

Once pilot suicide is ruled out, that is one of the only likely scenarios.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:44 am
by Lrockeagle
Campo wrote:
When I saw video of the crash scene I didn't notice any fuel sheen on the water. Is it possible the plane ran out of fuel?

To answer your question, yes, it is possible it ran out of fuel. As others have said previously, fuel starvation did not cause it to nosedive as it did since it still has wings and can glide quite some distance and land relatively softly. It’s possible it ran out of fuel and that caused the pilots to forget rule number one and fly the plane. Not likely though. If my brother had been flying and ran out of fuel causing total engine shutdown then I would expect him to give up and the plane to do some variation of this steep descent into the muck because he thinks that’s what happens when the engines quit(which is why he refuses to fly with me)

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:07 am
by TTailedTiger
MaksFly wrote:
Spot on... This event is truly both fascinating and scary. Horrible that lives were lost but even more scary is that apparently, the plane just fell out of the sky.

As others mentioned, don't think fuel at all as it would still let the plane glide down.

Other thing I can think of would be kind of like those MD80 crashes with the loss of vertical stabilizer or some control cable getting jammed.

Once pilot suicide is ruled out, that is one of the only likely scenarios.


Crashes? Plural? I'm only aware of one crash. And that was due to faulty maintenance. Not a design flaw.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:24 am
by SuperGee
Jouhou wrote:
OK, so when is the ntsb going to throw us a bone here? They surely at least have the cvr contents useable now, could they just give us a summary of what it sounds like?


According to this, should happen at almost any time now:

"Over the past weekend, investigators with the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) recovered the flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder from the wreckage. "Both have been transported to our labs here in Washington, D.C. and are currently being looked at," NTSB spokesman Kenneth Holloway told FreightWaves on March 4.

Holloway said that an initial review of the data from the two devices could be made public "any day now," but that a full transcript of the voice recorder data could take several months."


https://www.benzinga.com/news/19/03/132 ... ithin-days

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:04 pm
by hammer
enilria wrote:
marktci wrote:
enilria wrote:
Am I crazy or is that one of the most unclearly caused crashes over land in like decades? Usually there is a thread from the first day that ends up being close to the cause, but I see nothing here.


If you go back on the threads of the Eurowings crash, it really wasn't until the CVR contents were leaked that pilot suicide was seriously considered as a possibility here. There were at most a handful of posts (out of a few hundred) that even considered the possibility. Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but it was interesting to look at them again and see how many different mechanical malfunction theories were being tossed around.

What are the arguments against a weight shift like the Kalitta in Iraq?


When did Kalitta crash in Iraq? The 747-400 was National Airlines and it was in Afghanistan.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:22 pm
by enilria
hammer wrote:
enilria wrote:
marktci wrote:

If you go back on the threads of the Eurowings crash, it really wasn't until the CVR contents were leaked that pilot suicide was seriously considered as a possibility here. There were at most a handful of posts (out of a few hundred) that even considered the possibility. Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but it was interesting to look at them again and see how many different mechanical malfunction theories were being tossed around.

What are the arguments against a weight shift like the Kalitta in Iraq?


When did Kalitta crash in Iraq? The 747-400 was National Airlines and it was in Afghanistan.

My memory may be blurry.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:30 pm
by trnswrld
enilria wrote:
[lWhat are the arguments against a weight shift like the Kalitta in Iraq?


Not only what people already said regarding this, but large aircraft like a 767 is actually capable of handling a cargo shift even if it did happen. Especially cargo like what amazon carries.
For example the National 747 crash.....it was shown in extensive testing that the 747 should have been able to handle most if not ALL the heavy equipment shifting to the back of the aircraft achieved level flight within 5 seconds. It’s the fact that the vehicles destroyed parts of the aircraft including critical flight controls.
Based on what people said here I don’t think there is anything inside that 767 that could have shifted to bring it down. That however is for the investigators to determine.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:59 pm
by NIKV69
TSS wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
What I'm surprised about is that nothing seems to be leaking from the first pass at CVR review. I know that it is a painstaking process in which various parties listen to it and offer interpretations of what they hear (both voice and sounds). However, it seems like some high-level-of-abstraction information begins to come out informally about now in cases where there is a high level of media interest. ("It wasn't an intentional act." "They were talking about X issue they were dealing with but didn't think it was an emergency." "They suddenly experienced X issue." etc.)


Is two days long enough to fully and carefully desalinate and then completely dry out the CVR, download its data, and then analyze the data for anything interesting or unusual within?


The investigators know what caused this crash.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:11 pm
by highflier92660
NIKV69 wrote:
TSS wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
What I'm surprised about is that nothing seems to be leaking from the first pass at CVR review. I know that it is a painstaking process in which various parties listen to it and offer interpretations of what they hear (both voice and sounds). However, it seems like some high-level-of-abstraction information begins to come out informally about now in cases where there is a high level of media interest. ("It wasn't an intentional act." "They were talking about X issue they were dealing with but didn't think it was an emergency." "They suddenly experienced X issue." etc.)


Is two days long enough to fully and carefully desalinate and then completely dry out the CVR, download its data, and then analyze the data for anything interesting or unusual within?


The investigators know what caused this crash.



Am I detecting an undercurrent of suspicion, as in Federal Express Flight 705? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_E ... Flight_705

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:27 pm
by VeeCee
Initial review of CVR complete.

"Crew communications consistent with a loss control of the aircraft began approximately 18 seconds prior to the end of the recording."

https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-release ... 90305.aspx

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:27 pm
by Jouhou
https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-release ... 90305.aspx

They've completed the initial review of the CVR on saturday, still no hints.

Poster above beat me to it! I guess that is a hint.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:27 pm
by wjcandee
Stop with the FedEx 706 references already. It's just self-aggrandizing -- trying to sound knowledgeable because one can cite to some esoteric (and never-repeated) occurrence. Woo-hoo!

The guy you're talking about was so well-liked that United, his future employer, flew his wife back home first-class, and there are rumors posted elsewhere that United will be holding his seat open in the training program as a tribute. This as opposed to the guy at FedEx who had been terminated and whose life as he knew it was at an end for a variety of reasons, and was trying to get back at his employer. The two situations aren't remotely-similar, so referencing that flight is just cruel.

Is it possible? Sure. And it's possible that the flight was hit by a meteorite. Or ordinance. Or was hacked. But I don't think it's exactly the top of the list of possibility.

It is a weird occurrence from the outside looking in. And most-likely an unusual chain of events, not one event. But again, "most likely". We just don't know, so it seems silly to speculate when they now clearly know in the big picture what didn't happen, and maybe even what did.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:33 pm
by VeeCee
wjcandee wrote:
Stop with the FedEx 706 references already. It's just self-aggrandizing -- trying to sound knowledgeable because one can cite to some esoteric (and never-repeated) occurrence. Woo-hoo!



Not gonna lie, the FedEx flight had crossed my mind, but with the release of preliminary CVR review consistent with loss of control, that's off the table.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:36 pm
by wjcandee
RyanVHS wrote:
Ignore - somebody beat me to posting a link to the NTSB press release.


So it's a loss of control. Accordingly apparently not an intentional act. The reason for the loss of control is going to be the thorny subject of the investigation. The press release really doesn't tell us whether it was a human factors issue or a mechanical issue or a little of both.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:36 pm
by seabosdca
VeeCee wrote:
"Crew communications consistent with a loss control of the aircraft began approximately 18 seconds prior to the end of the recording."


I am so grateful for the professionalism of the NTSB.

To me this implies a loss of situational awareness; they would have been in a dive attitude for longer than 18 seconds given their altitude before things went haywire. Impossible to know whether any loss of situational awareness was due to pilot error, equipment failure, or a combination of both. We will see once the NTSB is able to verify the FDR data.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:39 pm
by wjcandee
seabosdca wrote:
VeeCee wrote:
"Crew communications consistent with a loss control of the aircraft began approximately 18 seconds prior to the end of the recording."


I am so grateful for the professionalism of the NTSB.

To me this implies a loss of situational awareness; they would have been in a dive attitude for longer than 18 seconds given their altitude before things went haywire. Impossible to know whether any loss of situational awareness was due to pilot error, equipment failure, or a combination of both. We will see once the NTSB is able to verify the FDR data.


That's a very-astute observation, so I say this respectfully...they also say that the audio quality is poor, so they may at the moment be missing some other indications of the prelude to the loss of control.

I also notice that the initial readout was Saturday. Three days ago. Which would suggest that the cause is non-obvious -- or potentially so outrageous that they want to be sure they have the evidence locked down before disclosing it.

That there have been no ADs or inspection orders in the 3 days since the CVR was read out militates against an obvious-source mechanical failure.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:53 pm
by VeeCee
seabosdca wrote:
VeeCee wrote:
"Crew communications consistent with a loss control of the aircraft began approximately 18 seconds prior to the end of the recording."


I am so grateful for the professionalism of the NTSB.

To me this implies a loss of situational awareness; they would have been in a dive attitude for longer than 18 seconds given their altitude before things went haywire. Impossible to know whether any loss of situational awareness was due to pilot error, equipment failure, or a combination of both. We will see once the NTSB is able to verify the FDR data.



I thought I remember from the first few pages of the thread that the entire event from level flight to the end was only about 16-17 seconds. That would fit in this time frame.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:13 pm
by NIKV69
highflier92660 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
TSS wrote:

Is two days long enough to fully and carefully desalinate and then completely dry out the CVR, download its data, and then analyze the data for anything interesting or unusual within?


The investigators know what caused this crash.



Am I detecting an undercurrent of suspicion, as in Federal Express Flight 705? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_E ... Flight_705


Guys I was simply stating that they know what happened. I actually don't think this pilot suicide.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:15 pm
by DoctorVenkman
VeeCee wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
VeeCee wrote:
"Crew communications consistent with a loss control of the aircraft began approximately 18 seconds prior to the end of the recording."


I am so grateful for the professionalism of the NTSB.

To me this implies a loss of situational awareness; they would have been in a dive attitude for longer than 18 seconds given their altitude before things went haywire. Impossible to know whether any loss of situational awareness was due to pilot error, equipment failure, or a combination of both. We will see once the NTSB is able to verify the FDR data.



I thought I remember from the first few pages of the thread that the entire event from level flight to the end was only about 16-17 seconds. That would fit in this time frame.


Correct. The aircraft started descending from 6000ft at 18:38:48Z and the last recorded data point was roughly 1200' at 18:39:02Z - a timeframe of 14 seconds. At that point it was diving at a rate of 500 feet per second so a little more than 2 seconds to go from 1200ft to sea level. That leaves a total dive time of ~16.5 seconds, so I don't think it implies a lack of situational awareness.

See below for more detail.

Image

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:20 pm
by seabosdca
DoctorVenkman wrote:
Correct. The aircraft started descending from 6000ft at 18:38:48Z and the last recorded data point was roughly 1200' at 18:39:02Z - a timeframe of 14 seconds. At that point it was diving at a rate of 500 feet per second so a little more than 2 seconds to go from 1200ft to sea level. That leaves a total dive time of ~16.5 seconds, so I don't think it implies a lack of situational awareness.


Holy crap, that's terrifying. I had no idea they were diving that fast.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:36 pm
by casinterest
DoctorVenkman wrote:
VeeCee wrote:
seabosdca wrote:

I am so grateful for the professionalism of the NTSB.

To me this implies a loss of situational awareness; they would have been in a dive attitude for longer than 18 seconds given their altitude before things went haywire. Impossible to know whether any loss of situational awareness was due to pilot error, equipment failure, or a combination of both. We will see once the NTSB is able to verify the FDR data.



I thought I remember from the first few pages of the thread that the entire event from level flight to the end was only about 16-17 seconds. That would fit in this time frame.


Correct. The aircraft started descending from 6000ft at 18:38:48Z and the last recorded data point was roughly 1200' at 18:39:02Z - a timeframe of 14 seconds. At that point it was diving at a rate of 500 feet per second so a little more than 2 seconds to go from 1200ft to sea level. That leaves a total dive time of ~16.5 seconds, so I don't think it implies a lack of situational awareness.

See below for more detail.

Image


From the NTSB Report:
The recording included the final portion of the flight; however, the quality of the audio is poor.

There are times during the recording when the content of crew discussion is difficult to determine, at other times the content can be determined using advanced audio filtering.

The crew was in communication with air traffic control and were being provided radar vectors for the runway 26L approach into George Bush Intercontinental Airport.

Crew communications consistent with a loss control of the aircraft began approximately 18 seconds prior to the end of the recording.


I wonder if this is a hint that they started having issues where the "Ok" was in the ATC recordings https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B790C0IO2kY ~8:39

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:38 pm
by TTailedTiger
I don't see any possibility of a simple loss of situational awareness leading to the aircraft being in a dive of 500 ft/sec. The 767 will right itself if you simply just let go of the controls. That kind of dive is the result of either a major flight control failure or deliberate action.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:45 pm
by heavymetal
seabosdca wrote:
VeeCee wrote:
"Crew communications consistent with a loss control of the aircraft began approximately 18 seconds prior to the end of the recording."


I am so grateful for the professionalism of the NTSB.

To me this implies a loss of situational awareness; they would have been in a dive attitude for longer than 18 seconds given their altitude before things went haywire. Impossible to know whether any loss of situational awareness was due to pilot error, equipment failure, or a combination of both. We will see once the NTSB is able to verify the FDR data.


How on earth does that statement imply a loss of situational awareness?

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:48 pm
by TTailedTiger
heavymetal wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
VeeCee wrote:
"Crew communications consistent with a loss control of the aircraft began approximately 18 seconds prior to the end of the recording."


I am so grateful for the professionalism of the NTSB.

To me this implies a loss of situational awareness; they would have been in a dive attitude for longer than 18 seconds given their altitude before things went haywire. Impossible to know whether any loss of situational awareness was due to pilot error, equipment failure, or a combination of both. We will see once the NTSB is able to verify the FDR data.


How on earth does that statement imply a lack of situational awareness?


Yeah, I'm still scratching my head wondering how he came to that conclusion.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:00 pm
by buzzard302
There is no conclusion based on the language of that NTSB statement. It is worded in a vague and neutral way as not to reveal anything. All we know is that evidence of loss of control started 18 seconds before the end of the recording.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:01 pm
by DL757NYC
wjcandee wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
enilria wrote:
What are the arguments against a weight shift like the Kalitta in Iraq?

Cargo was relatively low density Amazon packages. Not heavy equipment.


And it was essentially during straight and level flight. And if not full they normally carry a lot of empties that occupy space on the deck. And there is a standard method of securing these containers that is appropriate to the load (as opposed to a poorly-thought-out method of securing the unusual load on the National flight). And on and on.



A CG shift with the containers is highly unlikely. The loaders would have to not lock multiple containers. And even so. It wasn’t heavy equipment or tanks.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:39 pm
by jetmatt777
767 mechanic or engineers, is there anyway the entire stabilizers could deflect fully upwards? For example, a seal in a hydraulic valve which controls the pitch of the stabilizer leaking or bursting which allows an uncontrolled flow of hydraulic fluid into the actuator?

It must have been a tremendous and sudden force to change the angle that sudden, and one where the pilots couldn’t overcome.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:52 pm
by glideslope
buzzard302 wrote:
There is no conclusion based on the language of that NTSB statement. It is worded in a vague and neutral way as not to reveal anything. All we know is that evidence of loss of control started 18 seconds before the end of the recording.


Agreed. I've been waiting for the first statements. The statement is intentionally vague, and neutral as you stated. IMO, we will see a number of events leading to an unrecoverable situation. I still think WX will be playing a big role here. I'm still interested in airspeed when the aircraft left controlled flight.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:13 pm
by ssteve
jetmatt777 wrote:
It must have been a tremendous and sudden force to change the angle that sudden, and one where the pilots couldn’t overcome.


In Lauda Air 004, a thrust reverser deployed in flight. That was tremendous and sudden.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:19 pm
by TTailedTiger
ssteve wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
It must have been a tremendous and sudden force to change the angle that sudden, and one where the pilots couldn’t overcome.


In Lauda Air 004, a thrust reverser deployed in flight. That was tremendous and sudden.


But that sent the aircraft into a spiral. The Atlas 767 was wings level.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:22 pm
by ssteve
Right, I'd really hope that never happens again. More just pointing out that, yeah, departure from controlled flight that suddenly does happen. MD jackscrew and 737 rudder hard-over etc.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:28 pm
by Winterapfel
jetmatt777 wrote:
767 mechanic or engineers, is there anyway the entire stabilizers could deflect fully upwards? For example, a seal in a hydraulic valve which controls the pitch of the stabilizer leaking or bursting which allows an uncontrolled flow of hydraulic fluid into the actuator?

It must have been a tremendous and sudden force to change the angle that sudden, and one where the pilots couldn’t overcome.

Can the actual decent be replicated with all control surfaces intact? Or would damage be needed?

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:51 pm
by wjcandee
Stupid headline/article in Houston paper to the effect that the NTSB determined that the "crew lost control". No email for the reporter/editor so I could seek to inform them.

Wow how people can misinterpret the obvious. Obviously, the crew experienced a loss of control because the plane crashed. If they were in control, the plane would have landed safely (with obvious exceptions). If the wing falls off, it causes a loss of control. If the plane breaks in half, it causes a loss of control. All NTSB said was that there were conversations consistent with the loss of control that we already knew about, and they started 18 seconds before the end. That is the significance of the statement.

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 11:01 pm
by GalaxyFlyer
DoctorVenkman wrote:
VeeCee wrote:
seabosdca wrote:

I am so grateful for the professionalism of the NTSB.

To me this implies a loss of situational awareness; they would have been in a dive attitude for longer than 18 seconds given their altitude before things went haywire. Impossible to know whether any loss of situational awareness was due to pilot error, equipment failure, or a combination of both. We will see once the NTSB is able to verify the FDR data.



I thought I remember from the first few pages of the thread that the entire event from level flight to the end was only about 16-17 seconds. That would fit in this time frame.


Correct. The aircraft started descending from 6000ft at 18:38:48Z and the last recorded data point was roughly 1200' at 18:39:02Z - a timeframe of 14 seconds. At that point it was diving at a rate of 500 feet per second so a little more than 2 seconds to go from 1200ft to sea level. That leaves a total dive time of ~16.5 seconds, so I don't think it implies a lack of situational awareness.

See below for more detail.

Image


Unless you charted that flight path from the FDR, most unlikely, it’s pretty worthless. Flight Tracker isn’t the same in accuracy.

GF

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 11:07 pm
by dtwpilot225
Has anyone considered the possibility of a wake turbulence encounter yet? Not sure who was ahead of them but even an a321 has significant wake, enough to get situationally aware. Or there is the American plane from 2001 where the tail was ripped off from control inputs due to wake

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 11:39 pm
by WPvsMW
Wake vortex mentioned upthread. Along with bird flak.