mzlin
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:45 am

wjcandee wrote:
So the WSJ is out with an article containing leaks from the investigation. As we surmised, some want people to know that they're thinking it's straight-up pilot error, with no issues with the airframe or its systems, given how widely-used the 767 is in pax operations.

But the leaker's take on the initiating event is positively-bizarre, and has to do with a "pilot's arm being jostled in turbulence", thus thrusting the throttle to max. On the one hand, we're talking about the rarest of events, a fatal crash from altitude in a transport-category aircraft operated by a First World carrier, so I guess anything is fair game. But to me that seems just too weird. And then nobody just pulled it back? Why would anybody's hand be gripping the throttle anyway when 2/3 of the way through an automation-controlled flight-level-change? Lightly on it to sense position, yeah. Holding it so an arm jerk would push to max? And then to leave it there so the engines actually developed a high thrust level? Weird.

But now I guess we all just wait and see how NTSB lines it all up. Unless they find something else that explains it. If that's the best they've got, then I really do think we can stop speculating until they get deeper into the data analysis.


Doesn't seem so bizarre if:

1. toga button hit by mistake
2. plane suddenly accelerated and pitched nose-up
3. pilots startled and experienced somatogravic illusion of high pitch up
4. pilot pushed control column forward to command pitch down

2-4 would be similar to flydubai 981.

I may have missed something but don't remember if NTSB stated the flight-level-change was automation controlled or if that too derives from this unconfirmed rumor of "automation all the way down"
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:29 am

mzlin wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
So the WSJ is out with an article containing leaks from the investigation. As we surmised, some want people to know that they're thinking it's straight-up pilot error, with no issues with the airframe or its systems, given how widely-used the 767 is in pax operations.

But the leaker's take on the initiating event is positively-bizarre, and has to do with a "pilot's arm being jostled in turbulence", thus thrusting the throttle to max. On the one hand, we're talking about the rarest of events, a fatal crash from altitude in a transport-category aircraft operated by a First World carrier, so I guess anything is fair game. But to me that seems just too weird. And then nobody just pulled it back? Why would anybody's hand be gripping the throttle anyway when 2/3 of the way through an automation-controlled flight-level-change? Lightly on it to sense position, yeah. Holding it so an arm jerk would push to max? And then to leave it there so the engines actually developed a high thrust level? Weird.

But now I guess we all just wait and see how NTSB lines it all up. Unless they find something else that explains it. If that's the best they've got, then I really do think we can stop speculating until they get deeper into the data analysis.


Doesn't seem so bizarre if:

1. toga button hit by mistake
2. plane suddenly accelerated and pitched nose-up
3. pilots startled and experienced somatogravic illusion of high pitch up
4. pilot pushed control column forward to command pitch down

2-4 would be similar to flydubai 981.

I may have missed something but don't remember if NTSB stated the flight-level-change was automation controlled or if that too derives from this unconfirmed rumor of "automation all the way down"


If you're not coupled to the ILS or have the flaps out TOGA isn't even armed and if it was armed we're only looking at thrust to maintain a 2000fpm climb, not max thrust.

If the thrust levers got to max it was because they were pushed there and if it was by mistake they'd be pulled right back before the thrust actually ever got that far.
 
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:46 am

mzlin wrote:
1. toga button hit by mistake
2. plane suddenly accelerated and pitched nose-up
3. pilots startled and experienced somatogravic illusion of high pitch up
4. pilot pushed control column forward to command pitch down


Plausible.
 
WIederling
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:54 am

1989worstyear wrote:
What if the Boeing elevator bellcrank designers back in 1978-9 were screwups who caused this tragedy 40 years later?

Same with their autoflight system and SW engineers back then.


That would require a probability singularity.
How may more flight hours to expose issues did those components have under their belt in relation to the 2 MAX crashes.
${737 lifetime hours} vs 700k hours for the MAX!

IMHO the grandfathering argument based on longtime unremarkable behavior is quite acceptable.
But it collapses when that old safe feature is wrapped in onion layers of new design
as reliability/safety was only proven over the initial use envelope.

Best ( as in majorly unpretty ) example is the Microsoft Operating System Range.
The most unpleasant bugs were associated with a labyrinthine 8bit to 16bit to 32bit to 64bit enhancement path
that retained parts of that earlier code. ( next best cause was the complete lack of a structured design approach.)

Building semi thought through stuff and then fixing the bugs that stick out is an unacceptable process in today's world of complex systems as it only gets at the "exercised often enough" design short comings. A structured design process and analysis is able to get at those "raries" too or avoids them from the get go. ( either way you don't catch all )
Murphy is an optimist
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:12 am

Systems development is always budget and timeline constrained, whatever the methodology. Boeing delivered a hacked NG, and clearly the "wink and a nod" during certification ("pilots don't really need to know, they just need to feel") approach was wrong. I think there is a deeper aerodynamic problem with the impact of the airflow over the tops of the nacelles onto the wing during high AOA moving the center of lift, and therefore the C/G to center of lift relationship. What was stable becomes unstable, and MCAS version 1, and additional sensors, are several versions short of solving the problem. IOW, I don't think the problem that MCAS is trying to solve has been properly characterized, and therefore, remains unsolved except for a small part of the operating window. It's like sRGB colorspace... is MCAS v. 1 covering 50% of the color space?

The MCAS comments are about B737 MAX, not about the B767 family, of course.
 
slcguy
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:29 am

OldB747Driver wrote:
As far as the 49 degrees nose down goes, I wouldn't classify it as intent as much as the inadvertent result, so I would agree. The actions described by the NTSB (the increase to max thrust and elevator commanding nose down) fit a 'recovery' profile despite the actual flight path. I am somewhat suspicious of the way the NTSB's statement states that the "The stall warning (stick shaker) did not activate" as this may have been stated to assert that the automation did not push the nose over, but yet leave unanswered whether the 'warbler' was audible (which might contribute to "the quality of the audio is poor") or what indications were evident inside the aircraft.


I can't believe a 767 crew experienced in IMC (low visibilty/clouds) as all airline pilots are (even the low time ones) would lose situational awareness and think they were stalling at 230kt in a lightly loaded plane flying level at 6000'. Even if turbulence caused some major altitude/airspeed fluctuations you wouldn't do more than add power and maybe 10-20 degrees nose down, 767 drivers chime in here, but wouldn't a light 767 have a stall speed around 190 in a clean configuration? In this case it doesn't appear to have stalled (no speed below 230, no stick shaker etc) in any case if you can get a plane to dive down at a 49 degree angle with increasing high airspeed (400kts) it is not stalled. In addition I do not know of any aircraft that would require 49 degrees nose down to recover from a stall. If you are thinking of the infamous deep stall of t-tail airliners and jet fighters it is because they can't get the nose down to break the stall and gain airspeed.
 
Max Q
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 12:03 pm

AirlineCritic wrote:
mzlin wrote:
1. toga button hit by mistake
2. plane suddenly accelerated and pitched nose-up
3. pilots startled and experienced somatogravic illusion of high pitch up
4. pilot pushed control column forward to command pitch down


Plausible.



You might want to look at the last post, TOGA wouldn’t even be armed, let alone
activated in this scenario
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


Guns and the love of them by a loud minority are a malignant and deadly cancer inflicted on American society
 
mcdu
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 12:06 pm

OldB747Driver wrote:
Where are you getting the information regarding the audio?


Listen to the atc audio on YouTube. Capt was talking on the radio up to the point they were discussing turns for weather. The blocked transmission was the FO speaking at the same time as the controller.
 
slcguy
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 12:18 pm

AirlineCritic wrote:
mzlin wrote:
1. toga button hit by mistake
2. plane suddenly accelerated and pitched nose-up
3. pilots startled and experienced somatogravic illusion of high pitch up
4. pilot pushed control column forward to command pitch down


Plausible.


49 degree pitch down as plausible? With the exception of military fighter or aerobatic pilots, 99% of pilots have never been 49 degrees nose down even stall recovery training while as students. Don't think they just inadvertently over controlled!
Last edited by slcguy on Sat Mar 16, 2019 12:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Natflyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 12:36 pm

AirlineCritic wrote:
mzlin wrote:
1. toga button hit by mistake
2. plane suddenly accelerated and pitched nose-up
3. pilots startled and experienced somatogravic illusion of high pitch up
4. pilot pushed control column forward to command pitch down


Plausible.


No it is not.
 
Whiplash6
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:06 pm

Max Q wrote:
AirlineCritic wrote:
mzlin wrote:
1. toga button hit by mistake
2. plane suddenly accelerated and pitched nose-up
3. pilots startled and experienced somatogravic illusion of high pitch up
4. pilot pushed control column forward to command pitch down


Plausible.



You might want to look at the last post, TOGA wouldn’t even be armed, let alone
activated in this scenario

Flaps at 1 and GA would be armed.
 
76er
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:57 pm

Just a friendly reminder of the definition of an upset condition:

-Pitch attitude greater than 25°, nose up.
-Pitch attitude greater than 10°, nose down.
-Bank angle greater than 45°.
-Within the above parameters, but flying at airspeeds inappropriate for the conditions.

So 49 degrees isn’t just a little bit out of the ordinary, it is unheard off for a transport category aircraft. And no sane pilot would deliberately put an aircraft in this position if he/she would be trying to recover from e.g. a stalled condition. And no autopilot would perform such a maneuver, regardless of what is selected in the MCP by the crew.

My biggest fear in this accident is the crew not following the first rule of capt Vandenberg: if you don’t like what the automation is doing: click-click, click-click. I just hope it wasn’t this simple..
 
OldB747Driver
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:03 pm

slcguy wrote:
I can't believe a 767 crew experienced in IMC (low visibilty/clouds) as all airline pilots are (even the low time ones) would lose situational awareness and think they were stalling at 230kt in a lightly loaded plane flying level at 6000'. Even if turbulence caused some major altitude/airspeed fluctuations you wouldn't do more than add power and maybe 10-20 degrees nose down, 767 drivers chime in here, but wouldn't a light 767 have a stall speed around 190 in a clean configuration? In this case it doesn't appear to have stalled (no speed below 230, no stick shaker etc) in any case if you can get a plane to dive down at a 49 degree angle with increasing high airspeed (400kts) it is not stalled. In addition I do not know of any aircraft that would require 49 degrees nose down to recover from a stall. If you are thinking of the infamous deep stall of t-tail airliners and jet fighters it is because they can't get the nose down to break the stall and gain airspeed.


I generally agree with your assessment - my line of thinking along the "stall scenario" was derived from following the facts as stated by the NTSB, not necessarily probability as you stated. The "stall scenario" is supported by:

    * A relatively light, clean B767 stable at 230 KIAS is probably less than 60 knots above speed.
    * The weather graphic/doppler winds included by the NTSB clearly displays an area of winds in the area of the initiating event with the potential for a 60 knot shear. The possibility that they encountered this area may be supported by the described flight path - expediting a descent and stable at 230 KIAS suddenly leveling off, and even slightly climbs at 6200 MSL.
    * Despite the relatively stable conditions described by the NTSB just prior to the initiating event, the possibility that the flying pilot was executing a stall recovery is one of the few scenarios that could explain max thrust combined with nose down pitch

In this scenario, I don't think anyone inside the aircraft intentionally or unintentionally pitched to 49 degrees nose down - I think that pitch attitude was a result of the flight crews action combined with the phenomena that everyone is still guessing at (mechanical, weather, etc). The crew's inability to recover after-the-fact makes me want to believe a malfunction or failure of the aircraft or its systems, but with the abrupt, severe attitude change and short amount of time they had to correct the flight path, it might have been too disorienting.

The level off might also be attributed to a Flaps 1 deployment and inadvertent TOGA push, but this would not result in Max Thrust.
Last edited by OldB747Driver on Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
zanl188
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:07 pm

slcguy wrote:

49 degree pitch down as plausible? With the exception of military fighter or aerobatic pilots, 99% of pilots have never been 49 degrees nose down even stall recovery training while as students. Don't think they just inadvertently over controlled!


Many pilots have had spin and/or unusual attitude recovery training. Your 99% figure is much lower in truth, IMHO.
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OldB747Driver
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:31 pm

Noteworthy for all of these theories based upon the NTSB's information, the official description is not consistent with itself, for example it is evident that 18 seconds transpired from what appears to be the initiating event to the end of flight so the pitch could not have reduced to -49 degrees over 18 seconds because they also state that the nose was returning toward level prior to impact (and it is visible in the security camera video) so the pitching motion was likely more accurately described in the initial, but modified, statement the NTSB issued - that the pitch happened quickly, was maintained for some brief period followed by the slow decrease of the nose down pitch, ultimately resulting in the 20 degree nose down attitude.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:39 pm

slcguy wrote:
49 degree pitch down as plausible? With the exception of military fighter or aerobatic pilots, 99% of pilots have never been 49 degrees nose down even stall recovery training while as students. Don't think they just inadvertently over controlled!

How long does it take, assuming maximum nose-down input, to go from level flight to such a dive? Seeing how long it took them do get back to 20 degrees, I assume at least 10 - 15 seconds? It's not a fighter jet that will turn on the spot.
But no pilot will push the yoke full forward for no reason. Nor will he command max thrust during a fairly stable approach. Even the AF447 pilots (at least one of them) thought they were doing the right thing. So I agree with you that this wasn't just an accidental input. The outcome probably was, though.

The question remains why they did it, or why the autopilot did it. (since the NTSB report excludes an elevator failure) I still think weather and unusual indications on their displays are the most likely culprit. Maybe with some further disctraction by a systems failure, poor CRM or information overload.
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:50 pm

AirlineCritic wrote:
mzlin wrote:
1. toga button hit by mistake
2. plane suddenly accelerated and pitched nose-up
3. pilots startled and experienced somatogravic illusion of high pitch up
4. pilot pushed control column forward to command pitch down


Plausible.


Not even.
 
OldB747Driver
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:31 pm

mcdu wrote:
OldB747Driver wrote:
Where are you getting the information regarding the audio?


Listen to the atc audio on YouTube. Capt was talking on the radio up to the point they were discussing turns for weather. The blocked transmission was the FO speaking at the same time as the controller.


Thanks for the clarification - to most flight crews, that the other crewmember responded is not necessarily a "transfer of control", but more commonly an unofficial protocol observed that the other crewmember was busy with something else, which would be more of a hint of how high the crew's workload may have become when the events transpired.
 
Flaps
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:00 pm

Now here's one from way out in left field.

What if (and this is total conjecture) the jump seat occupant was either unstrapped/returning to/getting up from his seat at the time of the turbulence encounter? Thinking of the Tu-144 crash at the Paris Airshow where a maneuver threw an observer onto the center pedestal pushing the throttles to max and causing loss of control and loss of the aircraft brought this one in a billion possibility to mind. Admittedly this would be a highly unlikely event and an incredible coincidence but.......In theory at least it could account for both the throttles being pushed to full power and the column push leading to the 49 degree nose down attitude. No logical maneuver would lead to full throttle advance along with the severe nose down pitch as indicated thus far.

I'm not advocating this as the cause but just thought I'd throw it out there. This is a highly unusual accident sequence and may well be the result of a highly unusual set of circumstances.
 
Moosefire
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:48 pm

It’s very unlikely the jumpseater would be up below 10k
MD-11F/C-17A Pilot
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:05 pm

Flaps wrote:
Now here's one from way out in left field.

What if (and this is total conjecture) the jump seat occupant was either unstrapped/returning to/getting up from his seat at the time of the turbulence encounter?

Thinking of the Tu-144 crash at the Paris Airshow where a maneuver threw an observer onto the center pedestal pushing the throttles to max and causing loss of control and loss of the aircraft

Please, tell us more. :scratchchin:
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
Flaps
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:33 pm

Moosefire wrote:
It’s very unlikely the jumpseater would be up below 10k


Very unlikely indeed yet still not impossible. Unbuckled to get something out of a bag or put something in and........Again unlikely but so are all of the other scenarios so far.
 
mcdu
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:49 am

OldB747Driver wrote:
mcdu wrote:
OldB747Driver wrote:
Where are you getting the information regarding the audio?


Listen to the atc audio on YouTube. Capt was talking on the radio up to the point they were discussing turns for weather. The blocked transmission was the FO speaking at the same time as the controller.


Thanks for the clarification - to most flight crews, that the other crewmember responded is not necessarily a "transfer of control", but more commonly an unofficial protocol observed that the other crewmember was busy with something else, which would be more of a hint of how high the crew's workload may have become when the events transpired.


Generally if there was a transfer of duties “you fly and talk while I sort the non normal” that would have resulted in a change in tone of the pilot speaking on the radio and perhaps even “we are working an issue and would like heading a heading and an altitude. In this case it sounded like a normal tone and normal conversation. It sounded to me as if the pilots roles changed from PF to PM.
 
mzlin
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:06 am

7BOEING7 wrote:
AirlineCritic wrote:
mzlin wrote:
1. toga button hit by mistake
2. plane suddenly accelerated and pitched nose-up
3. pilots startled and experienced somatogravic illusion of high pitch up
4. pilot pushed control column forward to command pitch down


Plausible.


Not even.


same theory on pprune, fwiw
 
OldB747Driver
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 17, 2019 12:40 pm

Certainly anything is possible at this point, mzlin, and the scenario is consistent with itself but (again, assuming the NTSB data release has been accurate on its face) doesn't account for:

    * Max Thrust vs. GA Thrust which would be the result of TOGA button hit by mistake.
    * If the autopilot was engaged, it would not suffer from somatagravic illusion regardless of thrust setting nor [normally] command that pitched down attitude.
    * If the A/P was disengaged, it would not agree with the Feith comment about fighting the automation.
    * It also presumes that BOTH pilots suffered similarly such that the pilot monitoring (Captain?) made no change (or attempt to prevent) an severely abnormal attitude (49 deg. nose down).
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:11 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
Flaps wrote:
Now here's one from way out in left field.

What if (and this is total conjecture) the jump seat occupant was either unstrapped/returning to/getting up from his seat at the time of the turbulence encounter?

Thinking of the Tu-144 crash at the Paris Airshow where a maneuver threw an observer onto the center pedestal pushing the throttles to max and causing loss of control and loss of the aircraft

Please, tell us more. :scratchchin:

Yes, how do you know about this observer falling into the throttles? Have you been in the cockpit on that fateful day? :scratchchin: .... ohh, wait a minute... ;-)
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:34 pm

Flaps wrote:
Now here's one from way out in left field.

What if (and this is total conjecture) the jump seat occupant was either unstrapped/returning to/getting up from his seat at the time of the turbulence encounter? Thinking of the Tu-144 crash at the Paris Airshow where a maneuver threw an observer onto the center pedestal pushing the throttles to max and causing loss of control and loss of the aircraft brought this one in a billion possibility to mind. Admittedly this would be a highly unlikely event and an incredible coincidence but.......In theory at least it could account for both the throttles being pushed to full power and the column push leading to the 49 degree nose down attitude. No logical maneuver would lead to full throttle advance along with the severe nose down pitch as indicated thus far.

I'm not advocating this as the cause but just thought I'd throw it out there. This is a highly unusual accident sequence and may well be the result of a highly unusual set of circumstances.


Probably left field but I was thinking this same scenario. The jump seat occupant had flown on Atlas air flights, probably pretty often so may be known to the crew. Could have been retrieving something from a flight bag, observing, extra eyes watching the storm, trying to learn the 767 etc. Below 10K should be belted in, but 6K is still a ways from landing. A lot of flight crew is checking belts etc on a pax flight probably as low as 3K. It explains the throttle advance and push down almost concurrent with the high angle, then as he rolled out of it the crew started to nose up. It would be crazy commotion that could easily take 10-15 sec to get back off the controls with the steep angle. Three people screaming, lots of audibles, would make the CVR quite difficult to understand. But only one of many possibles, yet can't be ruled out.

Another possible, could hail have blocked either a pitot tube or affected a AOA sensor.
 
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SaveFerris
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:35 pm

mzlin wrote:
7BOEING7 wrote:
AirlineCritic wrote:

Plausible.


Not even.


same theory on pprune, fwiw


Trying to consolidate what others have said about this...the TOGA buttons are not armed until either the flaps are out of UP or the glideslope has been captured. I don’t know if the flap position has been released yet but at 230 knots in a relatively light 767 you are still above your clean speed by probably 20 knots (if not more).

Even IF the flaps were at 1 and TOGA was pressed the engines will NOT go all the way to maximum thrust. The airplane pitches up and aims for a 2000 foot per minute climb, which as light as that plane was you don’t need anywhere near max thrust for 2000 FPM. For reference on climbout in a 300,000ish pound airplane max climb thrust will give you well over 3000 to 4000 FPM below 10,000’.

This is why multiple other posters have discounted this theroy.
 
cedarjet
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:20 am

I don’t know why we’re pussyfooting around. Would be nice to be proved wrong by a mechanical failure or similar but alas it looks very bad. Germanwings, Egyptair, Silkair, now Atlas.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:42 am

I have learned a lot from this thread alone about a.nut topics other than suicide. Repeated speculation of suicide contributes nothing to an understanding of commercial aviation. Trying to be polite...
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:44 am

cedarjet wrote:
I don’t know why we’re pussyfooting around. Would be nice to be proved wrong by a mechanical failure or similar but alas it looks very bad. Germanwings, Egyptair, Silkair, now Atlas.


Agreed. It's certainly a terrible thing but it does seem more and more likely. The only solace is that we aren't looking at anything wrong with the 767, Atlas maintenance, P2F conversions, or some awful and undiscovered weather phenomenon that could bring down such a large jet at high altitude.
 
Whiplash6
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:55 am

SaveFerris wrote:
mzlin wrote:
7BOEING7 wrote:

Not even.


same theory on pprune, fwiw


Trying to consolidate what others have said about this...the TOGA buttons are not armed until either the flaps are out of UP or the glideslope has been captured. I don’t know if the flap position has been released yet but at 230 knots in a relatively light 767 you are still above your clean speed by probably 20 knots (if not more).

Even IF the flaps were at 1 and TOGA was pressed the engines will NOT go all the way to maximum thrust. The airplane pitches up and aims for a 2000 foot per minute climb, which as light as that plane was you don’t need anywhere near max thrust for 2000 FPM. For reference on climbout in a 300,000ish pound airplane max climb thrust will give you well over 3000 to 4000 FPM below 10,000’.

This is why multiple other posters have discounted this theroy.

What if the boards weren’t stowed?
 
N212R
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:49 am

WPvsMW wrote:
Repeated speculation of suicide contributes nothing to an understanding of commercial aviation.


I beg to differ. You can wish it away but mental health is a legitimate issue in the aviation world.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:51 am

I know it's a "legitimate issue" in aviation, and in human activity generally. My point is, what does the 100th post of "could be suicide" contribute that the preceding 99 posts lack?
 
Whiplash6
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:54 am

It wasn’t intentional. Drop it.
 
ryanov
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:34 am

Is it time to ask about a cargo shift for the 547th time?
 
asdf
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:03 am

In the case of the Lion Air 737MAX, the data of the flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder were known for months but they were not or only partially published.
In the interim report, only very general explanations were made because there is a final report only after 12 months.

If one had more clearly communicated in which directions the further investigation is going to be then one would have taken the MAX problem much more serious. Maybe then it would not have come to the second disaster in africa afterwards.


in the case of atlas air, the course seems to me very similar.

if you exclude intention and blatant pilots failure then only technical reasons remain. These can essentially only be in the mechanical area or in the area of ​​flight control.

In what direction does the flight accident commission now determine? I'm not interested in the satisfaction of my curiosity but I think the 767 riders should learn what they might have to pay attention to.

even if it is not a secure knowledge yet.
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:42 am

With the advancement of cheap memory and cheap/inconspicuous camera technology, I wonder if, in the near future, we should start discussing a video recorder in the cockpit with a third black box - the cockpit video recorder. The cockpit voice recorder would become the cockpit audio recorder ("CAR") and the cockpit video recorder would become the new CVR.

Or we could call it the cockpit activity recorder ("CAR").
 
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Blimpie
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:16 pm

washingtonflyer wrote:
With the advancement of cheap memory and cheap/inconspicuous camera technology, I wonder if, in the near future, we should start discussing a video recorder in the cockpit with a third black box - the cockpit video recorder. The cockpit voice recorder would become the cockpit audio recorder ("CAR") and the cockpit video recorder would become the new CVR.

Or we could call it the cockpit activity recorder ("CAR").


I may be wrong, but I could swear that the notion of cockpit video cameras have been brought up and shot down by the pilot's unions more times that pay raises for WN mx personnel. Personally, I always thought the CVR and FDRs should write to SSD or some sort of high end flash media device. I once covered a media event hosted by SanDisk where they ran over an SD card with an effing tank and the card still worked. At the moment, I have a flash drive attached to my laptop that hold 1TB and is smaller than the fingernail on my pinky. Of course I still foresee the day that all CVR and FDR data will be transmitted off-plane in real time.

While, I'm sure there will be naysayers who have all sorts of reason why it wouldn't work, where I come from we call them Washington Times employees; but the aviation industrial is full of the best and brightest as are the telecom and IT industries, and as we have seen in aviation, there's few if any technical issues that cannot be overcome.
Now get the hell off of my lawn your dang kids!
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:39 pm

Blimpie wrote:
Personally, I always thought the CVR and FDRs should write to SSD or some sort of high end flash media device.


I believe FDR and CVR have used solid state memory in hardened protection for many years already...
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
jetmatt777
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:40 pm

My main concern with cameras recording the cockpit would be that people perform differently when under direct surveillance; whether or not they think the film will ever be watched. Audio is a little less intrusive.

While a desk jockey isn’t responsible for hundreds of lives at a time; you would likely perform your job much differently if there was a camera in your cubicle watching you.
Lighten up while you still can, don't even try to understand, just find a place to make your stand and take it easy
 
trnswrld
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:42 pm

ryanov wrote:
Is it time to ask about a cargo shift for the 547th time?


Highly doubt it. Based on what people said the freight it was carrying is relatively light and even if there was a shift it’s nothing that a 767 couldn’t handle. Most shifts occur on takeoff and not mostly level flight. On top of that I thought I read that those airplanes are completely filled with containers (even empty ones) so that a shift isn’t really even possible.

As a reference to shifting cargo accidents, it was said that they proved that the National 747 that crashed due to the shift wasn’t actually because of the weight shift itself, but because critical flight control and hydraulics were destroyed in the back of the airplane from one of the vehicles hitting it. They said the 747 would have been controllable even with all the vehicles shifted to the back.

Could a shift cause an upset in IMC conditions which can cause the pilots to become disoriented? Sure anything is possible, but I just don’t see it with this one.
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:00 pm

trnswrld wrote:
ryanov wrote:
Is it time to ask about a cargo shift for the 547th time?

Highly doubt it. Based on what people said.......

No, you're right, I think we should focus our thoughts on possible suicide.... :duck:

I'm certainly considering it. :cry2:
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:09 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
My main concern with cameras recording the cockpit would be that people perform differently when under direct surveillance; whether or not they think the film will ever be watched. Audio is a little less intrusive.

While a desk jockey isn’t responsible for hundreds of lives at a time; you would likely perform your job much differently if there was a camera in your cubicle watching you.


They do it on trains now. The only reason they didn't do it previously on trains was that the BLE vehemently opposed it, but finally common sense prevailed over political pressure.

People tend to forget that the cameras are there after a while. And these would only be looked at in the case of an accident, most likely.
 
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SaveFerris
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:04 pm

Whiplash6 wrote:
SaveFerris wrote:
mzlin wrote:

same theory on pprune, fwiw


Trying to consolidate what others have said about this...the TOGA buttons are not armed until either the flaps are out of UP or the glideslope has been captured. I don’t know if the flap position has been released yet but at 230 knots in a relatively light 767 you are still above your clean speed by probably 20 knots (if not more).

Even IF the flaps were at 1 and TOGA was pressed the engines will NOT go all the way to maximum thrust. The airplane pitches up and aims for a 2000 foot per minute climb, which as light as that plane was you don’t need anywhere near max thrust for 2000 FPM. For reference on climbout in a 300,000ish pound airplane max climb thrust will give you well over 3000 to 4000 FPM below 10,000’.

This is why multiple other posters have discounted this theroy.

What if the boards weren’t stowed?


Good point, I didn’t even think about that.
 
OldB747Driver
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:16 pm

asdf wrote:
In the case of the Lion Air 737MAX, the data of the flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder were known for months but they were not or only partially published.
In the interim report, only very general explanations were made because there is a final report only after 12 months.

If one had more clearly communicated in which directions the further investigation is going to be then one would have taken the MAX problem much more serious. Maybe then it would not have come to the second disaster in africa afterwards.


THIS!!! ^^^

Yes - this is more than an exercise of "Pretend Accident Investigator"; the men & women who operate these aircraft have a distinct "need to know", even if that knowledge exonerates the aircraft and it's systems.

Echoing the "It Was NOT Intentionally Done" crowd, literally nothing in the any of the official or unofficial descriptions support the idea of suicide, including explicit statements such as "crew discussion consistent with loss of control", as well as implicit actions such as removing the FBI from the investigatory process, which would not occur if their were any reasonable suspicion this was an intentional act, so in this case please give this "theory" the funeral it deserves?

As far as the video recorder goes, in accident investigations such as this, there is no doubt video would assist in getting to the bottom of things quicker, although I'm pretty sure that without it we will still determine conclusively the cause of this unfortunate event. The problem with video (as well as the current CVR to an extent) is that recorded information in the 99.999% of non-accident cases could be used more as a cudgel against flight crews by management than would be for safety.

As evident by the NTSB's statement, the FDR data has recorded the last ~54 hours of flight, but only ~2 hours of audio (it used to be legally limited to only allow 30 minutes before recording over itself) due to privacy issues; it has and IS being used as a device to eavesdrop on non-safety related flight crew conversations, sometimes in real time, believe it or not. This is why pilot unions are opposed to this - I imagine if management had to wear body camera's to record ANY conversation that justified ANY actions regarding an airline's operation - and was available to the pilots - the pilots would not have as big a problem with this... Or maybe the folks at Boeing? Can you imagine the body camera tape of the Boeing engineers with the FAA discussing their decision to not inform pilots of a system that could override their control inputs?? Anyone want to talk about the Boeing patent for the Uniterruptible Autopilot in response to the 9/11...?? (On a side note, maybe we should mandate body camera's with our politicians; their actions implicitly affect more people than any single airline flight...)
 
achmafooma
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:19 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
My main concern with cameras recording the cockpit would be that people perform differently when under direct surveillance; whether or not they think the film will ever be watched. Audio is a little less intrusive.

While a desk jockey isn’t responsible for hundreds of lives at a time; you would likely perform your job much differently if there was a camera in your cubicle watching you.

I've thought about this too...and my normal instinct is to oppose "surveillance" except when absolutely necessary. But I think this might be one of those cases where I have to [kind-of reluctantly] agree that it would be a good idea. I'm not sure it would be much different insofar as changing behavior than the existing voice recorders...but maybe some pilots and first officers can chime in with their thoughts.

I'm just an interested outsider when it comes to aviation, so forgive me if this is a dumb question (or if it has already been asked and answered). What are the rules about airlines reviewing the voice and data recorders for "normal" flights? Do they regularly download them to check in on crew activities? Could they if they wanted to?

Perhaps the pilots and unions would be more open to video recording if there was an agreed policy -- law, regulation, or even just in the union contract -- that the videos could only be viewed by the airline in the event of a documented incident/accident. Knowing that they're not going to be looked at unless there's an absolute need might make the crew more comfortable with it and less likely to perform differently. Maybe that sort of thing already exists with voice recorders...I just don't know.

As wjcandee mentioned, after a long time fighting it this is finally being done with trains. Also, in the law enforcement world there was a lot of opposition to dashcams at first, but they ultimately became a major investigative tool and are now generally well liked. The same pattern is repeating as bodycams become more and more common with police departments. It might be one of those things where people think it's terrible until it starts working. That is, CVR's and police dashcams and bodycams often prove that the pilot or cop did the right thing when their performance is questioned.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:32 pm

A dashcam or bodycam (first person of view) is significantly different than a camera capturing your image in the 3rd person.
Lighten up while you still can, don't even try to understand, just find a place to make your stand and take it easy
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:43 pm

wjcandee wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
My main concern with cameras recording the cockpit would be that people perform differently when under direct surveillance; whether or not they think the film will ever be watched. Audio is a little less intrusive.

While a desk jockey isn’t responsible for hundreds of lives at a time; you would likely perform your job much differently if there was a camera in your cubicle watching you.


They do it on trains now. The only reason they didn't do it previously on trains was that the BLE vehemently opposed it, but finally common sense prevailed over political pressure.

People tend to forget that the cameras are there after a while. And these would only be looked at in the case of an accident, most likely.


Trains, mass transit subways, buses, etc. Even many ship have them. Time to put them in the cockpit. They're everywhere a person is.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:51 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
My main concern with cameras recording the cockpit would be that people perform differently when under direct surveillance; whether or not they think the film will ever be watched. Audio is a little less intrusive.

While a desk jockey isn’t responsible for hundreds of lives at a time; you would likely perform your job much differently if there was a camera in your cubicle watching you.

Most public spaces are under surveillance already. A train conductors workplace - the trains interior - , for example, is being video taped. Cashiers and most people working in malls, markets, museums etc. will be on video too. Virtually all front line airport staff, gate agents, ramp workers, taxi drivers are on video. Not in the focus, of course, but you'll see them.
Some airports even use face recognition. Do you think that it's only applied to passengers' faces?

As long as the camera is mounted discreetly and there's an agreement to only review the video in a reported incident or accident, you'll quickly forget that it's even there. Heck, even many criminals forget that surveillance cameras exist.

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