HPRamper
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:55 pm

trnswrld wrote:
ryanov wrote:
Is it time to ask about a cargo shift for the 547th time?


Highly doubt it. Based on what people said the freight it was carrying is relatively light and even if there was a shift it’s nothing that a 767 couldn’t handle. Most shifts occur on takeoff and not mostly level flight. On top of that I thought I read that those airplanes are completely filled with containers (even empty ones) so that a shift isn’t really even possible.

Yes, plus rows of multiple locks between every single position making it incredibly unlikely for anything to move, and even if the load crew forgot to set some locks, you're looking at maybe a 1-position load shift, about 10 feet or so, for a container that weighs less than 3k. It's really time to put this "theory" to bed.
 
NW747-400
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:57 pm

SaveFerris wrote:
mzlin wrote:
7BOEING7 wrote:

Not even.


same theory on pprune, fwiw


Trying to consolidate what others have said about this...the TOGA buttons are not armed until either the flaps are out of UP or the glideslope has been captured. I don’t know if the flap position has been released yet but at 230 knots in a relatively light 767 you are still above your clean speed by probably 20 knots (if not more).

Even IF the flaps were at 1 and TOGA was pressed the engines will NOT go all the way to maximum thrust. The airplane pitches up and aims for a 2000 foot per minute climb, which as light as that plane was you don’t need anywhere near max thrust for 2000 FPM. For reference on climbout in a 300,000ish pound airplane max climb thrust will give you well over 3000 to 4000 FPM below 10,000’.

This is why multiple other posters have discounted this theroy.


While it is true the auto throttle system will set a thrust reference to maintain a 2,000FPM climb when when the GA switch (they actually are not TOGA switches on the 757/767) is selected, that thrust setting is dependent on the airplane actually achieving a 2,000FPM climb. Had GA been inadvertently selected and the crew disconnected the autopilot (but not the autothrottles) to maintain level flight, the AT system would recognize the airplane was not climbing and the throttles would advance to the maximum GA thrust limit, which would be at or near the stops, in an attempt to achieve a 2,000FPM climb. This could potentially explain the maximum thrust setting. This situation could very rapidly lead to an over speed and cause structural failure if not quickly corrected. There have been instances of slat detachment from this very scenario.

As stated, the flaps would need to be extended out of the zero detent for the GA switches to be armed.
 
OldB747Driver
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:10 pm

Okey-dokee, <deep breath>, here we go, brace, brace, brace...

The increasingly capable technology that allows the easy recording of essentially everything, as well as the nearly real-time or instantaneous monitoring of it, is, in itself, not a bad thing. As the saying goes, if we don't learn from history, we are bound to relive it.In the case of tragedy, to NOT use this technology would then become itself, tragedy.

Sadly, the same human imperfections that allow these mistakes to occur also allow for the abuse of that same technology, as I hinted above. There is the human trait of "rubber-necking", or the inability to turn away from the proverbial train wreck despite the potential gore - of possibly because of it. There is the human behavior that, largely due to their lack of knowledge on a subject, people become offended by information whose meaning they don't fully comprehend and then create the proverbial tempest in a teapot. Finally add in the human trait of manipulating the information meant to help maintain a safety culture in a highly technical field could also be used in non-safety related ways to give a separate group some kind of advantage which usually, but not always, means money.

Pilots are humans, too, of course. What separates a professional pilot from 'just' pilots and non-pilots is generally their ability to understand abstract concepts and efficiently apply them to routine operations of high performance aircraft. This description is deserved through the rigorous amount of training and standards required to fly professionally. Does it mean all professional are "sky gods"? Far from it (see the first 3 words of this paragraph) but in the U.S. system, being a "qualified" crewmember in any U.S. airline means you've done a lot more than just 'love to fly' and had an extra $100,000 laying around to blow on flight training. (There are ALWAYS exception to the rule, but stay with me here...)

Despite these qualifications, when we sit up there on the flight deck, our ability to function for up to a 16-hour work day is dependent on a lot of things, including the ability to 'entertain' our minds while the jet, on autopilot, drones across the sky in that 15th hour of duty and 8th hour of flight operations which in itself is the culmination of a myriad of decisions we've processed throughout that day - gate delays, passenger issues, Flight Attendent concerns, modified ATC clearances, maintenance deferrals and how they will alter our legality in the operation of an already complex dance of weather, systems limitations and human factors. When we are finally in that smooth air in the waning hours of the day, we are NOT glued to the engine instruments waiting for a hiccup of data that will send us into a flurry of checklists, but in reality, we are trying to find a way to mentally keep us awake and in the game, together with a prudent schedule of monitoring the overall progress of the flight.

To the unblinking eye of a camera, and taken without context, a video of almost anything NOT flight related would be, to the un-educated or biased eye, incriminating. If an FAA that thinks a flight crew should be fully alert in a day at the 8th hour or flying after 15 hours of operations, late at night, why would they rule any differently if one of the pilots, say, pulled out some of his or her email to read while trying to stay mentally engaged under these conditions? Yes, the FAA does state that ultimately the pilot "knows best" and remove themselves from this condition, but the then the FAA should also "know best" that in our highly competitive business environment, if you allow a business to make a long, busy schedule regardless of weather, they WILL do it if it makes them money. Pilots know that grounding an airplane at an outstation is a VERY costly event, not to mention inconveient for their passengers. But, you know, wink-wink, pilots are always fit to fly or they call in unfit!

The realistic answer is that, until everyone gets a lot more honest with their own behaviors (or the behavior of the entity they are responsible for) things like cockpit video recorders will keep running into jet-stream-like headwinds.
 
cdark
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:27 pm

Anyone suggesting adding cameras on the flight deck are most likely not in professional aviation. I say this because our airplanes and companies already have massive amounts of data about each and every flight outside of FDR and CVR systems. Commercial pilots in the 121 environment are held to such a high standard and are always under scrutiny for the decisions they make.

Adding cameras to the flight deck would absolutely change the way people behave, in a bad way. It’s difficult enough to make a tough decision when you’re in an emergency or urgent situation, there is no need to have the added pressure of knowing you are being video recorded.

When it comes to trains, subways, buses etc. cameras were added to combat sleeping, cell phone use and other similar safety issues that arose with accidents.

Lastly, cameras would do nothing for determining causes of crashes. It’s hard to think of any crashes that couldn’t be determined through the CVR and FDR systems. The video footage would do little more than appease prying and curious eyes when the footage inevitably gets leaked to the public. And we all know it would get leaked.

FDRs can give investigators thousands of perimeters, tell them the exact location of switches, flight control inputs, system statueses and engine information. It gives a far clearer image of the flight than any video footage would offer.

It’s a bad, exspensive, and ultimately pointless idea that no pilots unions will ever agree to.
 
OldB747Driver
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:26 pm

cdark - well said and I agree.

I don't konw how expensive it would be with modern technology, but with the very small footprint they create, it wouldn't surprise me if there are already cameras in place that pilots are not aware of, whether or not they are used for "official" accident investigation or analysis...
 
FlyHossD
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:06 pm

mxaxai wrote:
As long as the camera is mounted discreetly and there's an agreement to only review the video in a reported incident or accident, you'll quickly forget that it's even there. Heck, even many criminals forget that surveillance cameras exist.


"...there's an agreement to only review the video in a reported incident or accident..."

At the request of the captain involved, I was his representative in a disciplinary action against him where the voice recorder was downloaded and used against him even though the existing policy specifically stated that it could not be used for disciplinary matters. Further, the carrier chose to not have the recording analyzed and cherry-picked one item to support their bias. They terminated that captain.

But also under that policy, he was entitled to an arbitration. Once the arbitrator learned of the company's actions, he stopped the arbitration hearing and ordered reinstatement for the captain right then and there.

My point is that any recording can be misused and this is just one example of that - I'm aware of others as well. That's part of the reason so many unions normally oppose more intrusion.

BTW, the carrier involved in my story above, did unionize a short time later - such was the mistrust of the flight ops management.
My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:35 pm

cdark wrote:
Lastly, cameras would do nothing for determining causes of crashes. It’s hard to think of any crashes that couldn’t be determined through the CVR and FDR systems. The video footage would do little more than appease prying and curious eyes when the footage inevitably gets leaked to the public. And we all know it would get leaked.

It could have helped solve MS 804, which is still mostly unknown. We know that there was a fire on the flight deck but the exact cause is still unknown.

It could have helped solve the Tu-144 crash. We know that the aircraft was commanded to dive but not why.

It could have helped reduce uncertainty with 4U 9525. Deducing the copilots state from CVR noises (calm breathing, switch flips etc) is a lot more vague than seeing him set the autopilot switches and being fully awake until impact. Actually it should help solve most presumed suicide cases.

It could in general help to use the term "pilot error" more precisely. Knowing what exactly the pilot was doing and why he didn't see that particular alert or why he failed to perform that particular action should help improve the cockpit design. "Pilot error" always sounds like "Yo, there just happened to be a stupid guy up front. Better luck next time!"

In this case here, it could help determine why the plane pitched down. If, for example, a crew member accidentally pushed the yoke while not in his seat, this would be clearly visible.

Btw, while looking through some older crashes, GF 072, an A320 in 2000, sound somewhat similar. Except that that crash was during a go-around and not on approach. But advancing throttles were present here too.
The investigation showed that during the go-around, as the captain was dealing with the flap over-speed situation, he applied a nose-down side-stick input, resulting in a nose-down pitch. While the aircraft was accelerating with TOGA power in total darkness, the somatogravic illusion could have caused the captain to perceive (falsely) that the aircraft was ‘pitching up’. He would have responded by making a ‘nose down’ input. The aircraft descended and flew into the sea.


Combined with the turbulence, I could imagine the following scenario:
A crew member / the jump seater returns to his seat for the landing. In turbulence, he stumbles onto the center pedestal. Instinctively, he graps the throttles and by conservation of momentum pushes them full forward. The surprise, the turbulence and the lack of orientation cause another crew member to believe that they are in an upset, nose up position, and he instinctively pushes the nose down. While the crew member recovers and returns to his seat, they loose situational awareness. After a few seconds, they realize that it's too steep and counteract, but at that point it's too late.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:55 pm

cdark wrote:
Anyone suggesting adding cameras on the flight deck are most likely not in professional aviation. I say this because our airplanes and companies already have massive amounts of data about each and every flight outside of FDR and CVR systems. Commercial pilots in the 121 environment are held to such a high standard and are always under scrutiny for the decisions they make.

Adding cameras to the flight deck would absolutely change the way people behave, in a bad way. It’s difficult enough to make a tough decision when you’re in an emergency or urgent situation, there is no need to have the added pressure of knowing you are being video recorded.

When it comes to trains, subways, buses etc. cameras were added to combat sleeping, cell phone use and other similar safety issues that arose with accidents.

Lastly, cameras would do nothing for determining causes of crashes. It’s hard to think of any crashes that couldn’t be determined through the CVR and FDR systems. The video footage would do little more than appease prying and curious eyes when the footage inevitably gets leaked to the public. And we all know it would get leaked.

FDRs can give investigators thousands of perimeters, tell them the exact location of switches, flight control inputs, system statueses and engine information. It gives a far clearer image of the flight than any video footage would offer.

It’s a bad, exspensive, and ultimately pointless idea that no pilots unions will ever agree to.


I didn't realize pilot unions got a say in the implementation of FARs. Maybe they should protest and get the CVR removed.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:57 pm

They get to comment, lobby Congress, present to the public.

GF
 
spudsmac
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:05 am

mxaxai wrote:
cdark wrote:
Combined with the turbulence, I could imagine the following scenario:
A crew member / the jump seater returns to his seat for the landing. In turbulence, he stumbles onto the center pedestal. Instinctively, he graps the throttles and by conservation of momentum pushes them full forward. The surprise, the turbulence and the lack of orientation cause another crew member to believe that they are in an upset, nose up position, and he instinctively pushes the nose down. While the crew member recovers and returns to his seat, they loose situational awareness. After a few seconds, they realize that it's too steep and counteract, but at that point it's too late.


This is absolutely idiotic. No way this would happen. Even if the cockpit wasn't massive and you were in close quarters AND you somehow managed to hit the thrust levers it would be very easy to manage it.
 
cdark
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:32 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
cdark wrote:
Anyone suggesting adding cameras on the flight deck are most likely not in professional aviation. I say this because our airplanes and companies already have massive amounts of data about each and every flight outside of FDR and CVR systems. Commercial pilots in the 121 environment are held to such a high standard and are always under scrutiny for the decisions they make.

Adding cameras to the flight deck would absolutely change the way people behave, in a bad way. It’s difficult enough to make a tough decision when you’re in an emergency or urgent situation, there is no need to have the added pressure of knowing you are being video recorded.

When it comes to trains, subways, buses etc. cameras were added to combat sleeping, cell phone use and other similar safety issues that arose with accidents.

Lastly, cameras would do nothing for determining causes of crashes. It’s hard to think of any crashes that couldn’t be determined through the CVR and FDR systems. The video footage would do little more than appease prying and curious eyes when the footage inevitably gets leaked to the public. And we all know it would get leaked.

FDRs can give investigators thousands of perimeters, tell them the exact location of switches, flight control inputs, system statueses and engine information. It gives a far clearer image of the flight than any video footage would offer.

It’s a bad, exspensive, and ultimately pointless idea that no pilots unions will ever agree to.


I didn't realize pilot unions got a say in the implementation of FARs. Maybe they should protest and get the CVR removed.


They don’t have the final say, but they have a lot of influence with the companies, the FAA, Congress, and the public. I never said the CVR was a bad idea. I think the CVR tied to the FDR coupled with a competent accident investigation team like the NTSB is enough to solve 99% of accidents.
 
cdark
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:41 am

The likelyhood someone tripped and hit the thrustlevers or slouched forward on the controls is extremely low. Given that TOGA isn’t armed until flaps are deployed or LOC captured and it doesn’t necessarily produce max thrust, a more likely scenario that fits both the max thrust and the pitch down is an unreliable airspeed situation where the autothrottles see a slow speed and increase thrust and the pilot sees a slow speed and decreases pitch.
 
Dreamflight767
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:47 am

Just read a Business Insider report. Per NTSB Pilot Error - CFIT.
 
OldB747Driver
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:04 am

That article in the Business Insider (which claims reference to a WSJ behind-a-paywall article) undermines itself. I'm not sure how you claim the NTSB gave information implicating the pilots while the man in charge claims it'll take a year because its "very much a mystery".
 
Whiplash6
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:13 am

OldB747Driver wrote:
That article in the Business Insider (which claims reference to a WSJ behind-a-paywall article) undermines itself. I'm not sure how you claim the NTSB gave information implicating the pilots while the man in charge claims it'll take a year because its "very much a mystery".

Very much a mystery how a B-767 rated pilot can take a perfectly good airplane and put it in a negative 49 degree nose dive.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:16 am

We don’t know that a 767 rated pilot put the plane in a 49* dive.

GF
 
Whiplash6
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:19 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
We don’t know that a 767 rated pilot put the plane in a 49* dive.

GF

You’re right. The autopilot did.
 
Moosefire
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:26 am

We don’t know that either. I don’t know of any autopilot mode that would get you that nose low. You would need all of your drag devices out and then some in a speed-on-pitch scenario and then would likely achieve only ~20ish degrees nose low at best
MD-11F/C-17A Pilot
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:28 am

Whiplash6 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
We don’t know that a 767 rated pilot put the plane in a 49* dive.

GF

You’re right. The autopilot did.


Are you being serious? If so I would like to see some references that demonstrate how the autopilot could command such an extreme input.
 
Whiplash6
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:31 am

Moosefire wrote:
We don’t know that either. I don’t know of any autopilot mode that would get you that nose low. You would need all of your drag devices out and then some in a speed-on-pitch scenario and then would likely achieve only ~20ish degrees nose low at best

A negative G maneuver such as +4 to -49 in 18 mere seconds is asking for a lot to break structurally. They maintained a heading of 270 according to the NTSB. Be honest, do you think you could do 50 degrees nose down at 430 knots and maintain a heading of 270?
 
Whiplash6
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:14 am

Because I’m a nice guy, I’ll repost the NTSB update that states that 3591 was in a rapid descent on a heading of 270*. Not approximately 270 degrees west but exactly 270 to the degree.... The NTSB doesn’t eff around with their words. No person can maintain a heading to that degree, even in the best of situations..

https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/Pag ... MA086.aspx
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:36 am

cdark wrote:
The likelyhood someone tripped and hit the thrustlevers or slouched forward on the controls is extremely low. Given that TOGA isn’t armed until flaps are deployed or LOC captured and it doesn’t necessarily produce max thrust, a more likely scenario that fits both the max thrust and the pitch down is an unreliable airspeed situation where the autothrottles see a slow speed and increase thrust and the pilot sees a slow speed and decreases pitch.



Is it possible that a strong burst of air from an unusual direction could possibly temporarily mess with the planes sensors, considering how pitot tubes work, and give a brief erroneous reading that causes a pilot to have a knee jerk reaction?
The sharp nose down was right after they got slapped with some strong turbulence.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:45 am

I’ve read the order of wording in the NTSB report and it doesn’t seem to me the slight pitch up and altitude gain was due to the engines spoiling up to max thrust. It reads to me the max thrust came after the pitch up and climb to 6300 began. After max thrust the airplane then began to nose down.

Did they sense a stall due to the airplane pitching up, lost confidence in instrumentation? Even then the G force change to 49 down in such a short time would be equally noticeable as being incorrect. This is baffling.
Lighten up while you still can, don't even try to understand, just find a place to make your stand and take it easy
 
wjcandee
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:57 pm

OldB747Driver wrote:
That article in the Business Insider (which claims reference to a WSJ behind-a-paywall article) undermines itself. I'm not sure how you claim the NTSB gave information implicating the pilots while the man in charge claims it'll take a year because its "very much a mystery".


It's no longer a mystery. At least the sequence of events isn't. They have had the CVR and DFDR for a few weeks; they know what happened. A final report with probable cause conclusions will take over a year and what will be a contentious hearing will happen before that. My interest will be in seeing what recommendations they make for the future; how to reduce the possibility of what happened by means of regulations is going to be tough.
 
OldB747Driver
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:05 pm

wjcandee wrote:
It's no longer a mystery. At least the sequence of events isn't. They have had the CVR and DFDR for a few weeks; they know what happened. A final report with probable cause conclusions will take over a year and what will be a contentious hearing will happen before that. My interest will be in seeing what recommendations they make for the future; how to reduce the possibility of what happened by means of regulations is going to be tough.


Your statement seems to imply that you're aware of unpublished information that has been derived from the CVR and FDR - if so, please share or give a hint as to your certainty? The ability to know the contents of the CVR or see the results of the FDR (for those of us who understand 'aviation-nese') one could probably make better inferences, but as it stands from a public point-of-view, while the flight path seems to be well documented, because of the conflict between certain statements (and retractions), the cause seems to be anything but known.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:25 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
I’ve read the order of wording in the NTSB report and it doesn’t seem to me the slight pitch up and altitude gain was due to the engines spoiling up to max thrust. It reads to me the max thrust came after the pitch up and climb to 6300 began. After max thrust the airplane then began to nose down.


I'm not sure how you can read a different order of events from the NTSB's wording. It seems very straightforward:

"Shortly after, when the airplane’s indicated airspeed was steady about 230 knots, the engines increased to maximum thrust, and the airplane pitch increased to about 4° nose up."
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:28 pm

B747: I think that people are not being thorough enough in their analysis of the NTSB update and are not looking at it as a series of Clues and breadcrumbs intentionally laid out by the NTSB. It's all in there, and you can line up the events in a way that will give you a very clear view of a likely sequence of events. I think I laid it out about a week ago, when that report came out. I have no personal knowledge of the contents of the FDR or CVR. But like I said at the time, if you discard all the mechanical stuff and falling on the controls and such, and focus on the config of the aircraft at initiation of the sequence, what it was told to do by ATC, and what it then did, accepting as true that the aircraft responded as designed, there is a lot you can divine from that data. The likely initiating event and at least the rudiments of what the crew initially did and didn't do. Beyond that, the nitty gritty isn't really important. I will be interested to read it when the final report comes out, but the basic screw up is pretty obvious, and Greg Feith said what it was in terms of the big picture. If people stopped looking for zebras and instead looked for horses, I think that this thread would be pretty short since the release of the NTSB update.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:33 pm

scbriml wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
I’ve read the order of wording in the NTSB report and it doesn’t seem to me the slight pitch up and altitude gain was due to the engines spoiling up to max thrust. It reads to me the max thrust came after the pitch up and climb to 6300 began. After max thrust the airplane then began to nose down.


I'm not sure how you can read a different order of events from the NTSB's wording. It seems very straightforward:

"Shortly after, when the airplane’s indicated airspeed was steady about 230 knots, the engines increased to maximum thrust, and the airplane pitch increased to about 4° nose up."


D’oh! You’re right. I was up late on limited sleep. Thank you.
Lighten up while you still can, don't even try to understand, just find a place to make your stand and take it easy
 
OldB747Driver
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:05 pm

Thanks for the reply, wjcandee; I don't see it but then again, I've been guilty of being dense before!
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:38 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
I’ve read the order of wording in the NTSB report and it doesn’t seem to me the slight pitch up and altitude gain was due to the engines spoiling up to max thrust. It reads to me the max thrust came after the pitch up and climb to 6300 began. After max thrust the airplane then began to nose down.


I'm not sure how you can read a different order of events from the NTSB's wording. It seems very straightforward:

"Shortly after, when the airplane’s indicated airspeed was steady about 230 knots, the engines increased to maximum thrust, and the airplane pitch increased to about 4° nose up."


D’oh! You’re right. I was up late on limited sleep. Thank you.


FWIW, I remembered it the same way - pitch up, then full power, then dive. Perhaps someone posted it that way once and it stuck in our heads?
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:25 am

OldB747Driver wrote:
Thanks for the reply, wjcandee; I don't see it but then again, I've been guilty of being dense before!


Not dense. And I could be totally wrong, but I think there's a general picture there that fits if one goes through the known events in the accident sequence without looking far afield.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Mar 20, 2019 3:00 am

Whiplash6 wrote:
Because I’m a nice guy, I’ll repost the NTSB update that states that 3591 was in a rapid descent on a heading of 270*. Not approximately 270 degrees west but exactly 270 to the degree.... The NTSB doesn’t eff around with their words. No person can maintain a heading to that degree, even in the best of situations..

https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/Pag ... MA086.aspx


But they were following the book on the decent per the report. I think the below is the key piece.

"Radar data indicated the airplane continued the descent through 12,000 ft with a ground speed of 290 knots, consistent with the arrival procedure. The pilots responded that they wanted to go to the west of the area of precipitation. The controller advised that to do so, they would need to descend to 3,000 ft expeditiously.



The plane was already programmed for descent to 3000 feet. The application of thrust briefly changed the trajectory, but someone or something pushed down on the yoke, and the plane which was already in descent, was pushed further into descent in response to a stall that was not happening.

That is my takeaway. Maybe something else happened, but for now, that is my takeaway.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
OldB747Driver
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:33 pm

"Expediting a descent" requires removal of thrust, as well as increasing drag, such as extension of the flaps or flight spoilers (the boards) to the degree prudent. Given the narrative - which is not ambiguous - about the conditions just prior to the accident sequence:

    1. Level-off and slight climb at 6200-6300 MSL after a continuous descent,
      * We are inclined to believe they are "descending expeditiously",
      * Insinuates external input such as increasing headwind or updraft without increasing thrust,
    2. Indicated airspeed stable at 230 KIAS,
      * Insinuates no significant shear or column induced pitch up which would cause the indicated airspeed to decrease,
    3. Small vertical accelerations consistent with turbulence
      * "Small" insinuates "light" turbulence,
    4. Engines increasing to max thrust
      * NOT consistent with wanting to continue descent,
      * NOT consistent with autothrottle TOGA command,
      * IS consistent with pilot manual input but without any indication of what the pilot is responding to...,
    5. Slight pitch up
      * Most likely the response to the center of thrust pushing the nose up but slightly behind the thrust input due to the very large change of thrust
    6. Aircraft's elevator movement responsible for commanding nose down pitch,
      * Intentionally changed from the initial statement that is was control column input as the cause of the elevator command,
      * Insinuates that the control column may not have been the cause of elevator movement,
      * Insinuates that the autopilot or some other unknown input may have commanded movement,
      * A normally-functioning autopilot would not command that extreme a flight condition
      * Insinuates that something external such as shear or downdraft did NOT cause the nose down pitch.

Maybe I'm displaying my bias to assume that at least one of the two reasonably experienced* crewmembers at the controls would recognize either an attitude that is, for a transport category aircraft, EXTREME, or to not verbalize, prevent or counteract a huge increase in power together with the less-than-one 'G' push over (approaching zero 'G' or maybe even negative) that had to occur to get to that attitude so quickly. And of course it ignores the fact that max thrust preceded that pitch over, an intentional action that makes absolutely NO sense in this narrative - there is no such thing as increasing power in order to expedite a descent. As has been discussed, there IS max thrust input as a response to significant shear but there appears that there was no significant shear here.

While the NTSB did NOT specifically say that the airplane was uncontrollable (only that a discussion consistent with loss of control), the apparent lack of ANY proper response to a nose-down recovery with a fully controllable aircraft is suspect in this narrative which also makes me question this as a possibility.

*Regarding crew experience: After scrutinizing that NTSB 3-12 update, I noticed that the Captain, while having a respectable overall time around 11,000, having only around 1,500 as a Captain in the B767 seemed a little low, especially considering that one would expect that he would have accumulated most of that in the right seat before upgrading, if I'm reading that right.
 
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kordcj
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:49 am

Is it possible to accidentally engage TOGA? If one pilot accidentally engages TOGA and the plane pitches up from the increase in thrust, could the other startled pilot respond from the unexpected upward pitch and push forward into the dive? Didn’t an AC pilot put a plane into a dive once because he thought Venus (the planet) was an oncoming aircraft?
The most obvious proof for intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't tried to contact us.
 
WIederling
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:03 am

N14AZ wrote:
Yes, how do you know about this observer falling into the throttles? Have you been in the cockpit on that fateful day? :scratchchin: .... ohh, wait a minute... ;-)


Is there a changing Schopenhauer Stratagem of the day around that the cognoscenti must use that day?
I've seen the same phrase used as counter in multiple topics today.

Apropos: Tu144 crash is said to be due to evasive action to avoid collision with a "just having a look" Mirage.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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DalDC9Bos
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:59 am

I am sure that I am going to be attacked for asking this here, but can we consider for a moment the possibility of a suicidal or unwell pilot taking control of the plane. Specifically, given the series of events described in reports already released, could deliberate actions set those motions in place? And if so, at that approach altitude, would there be enough time for a recovery should the other crew members overpowered him?

I know this was mentioned here in the days after the incident and was shot down as being inappropriate and wrong. My view is respecting the family of the lost crew means finding out the truth.
 
asdf
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:20 pm

DalDC9Bos wrote:
I am sure that I am going to be attacked for asking this here, but can we consider for a moment the possibility of a suicidal or unwell pilot taking control of the plane. Specifically, given the series of events described in reports already released, could deliberate actions set those motions in place? And if so, at that approach altitude, would there be enough time for a recovery should the other crew members overpowered him?


one cannot rule out anything i guess

but as the official report has been modified from "input to console" to "movement of actuator" i would see that as clarification that it was NOT a input to the console

they can see in the data from FDR where the movement come from
they would not have to change the text if it was the case that the input came from the console

i think they modified it because it was NOT a console imput but a malfunction from electronic or a mechanical issue
 
flymia
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:05 pm

DalDC9Bos wrote:
I am sure that I am going to be attacked for asking this here, but can we consider for a moment the possibility of a suicidal or unwell pilot taking control of the plane. Specifically, given the series of events described in reports already released, could deliberate actions set those motions in place? And if so, at that approach altitude, would there be enough time for a recovery should the other crew members overpowered him?

I know this was mentioned here in the days after the incident and was shot down as being inappropriate and wrong. My view is respecting the family of the lost crew means finding out the truth.


Give the safety record of transport category aircraft operating under part 121 in the United States, statistically this may be the most likely scenario. However, I don't think this is what happened. The changing in the NTSB wording leads to that, as well as the timing makes no sense. There have been various intentional flight into terrain before, and I can't think of any that happened on decent. So a disturb pilot is going to wait until decent to his destination to do the act? Sit in cruise for two hours talking with the crew? I just don't see it.

Something very odd happened here. But it is just too early for us (the NTSB might have a good idea) to have any decent guess of what happened. All I know it is something exceptionally rare that happened. 767s don't do this.
"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
 
wjcandee
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:15 pm

DalDC9Bos wrote:
I am sure that I am going to be attacked for asking this here, but can we consider for a moment the possibility of a suicidal or unwell pilot taking control of the plane. Specifically, given the series of events described in reports already released, could deliberate actions set those motions in place? And if so, at that approach altitude, would there be enough time for a recovery should the other crew members overpowered him?

I know this was mentioned here in the days after the incident and was shot down as being inappropriate and wrong. My view is respecting the family of the lost crew means finding out the truth.


The only reason you would be "attacked" is because the question was asked about 30,000 times already and discussed in this thread and you come and ask this question without giving the rest of us the courtesy of actually reading, say, two pages of it.

Let me put it very simply for you: No, that didn't happen here.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:24 pm

flymia wrote:

Something very odd happened here. But it is just too early for us (the NTSB might have a good idea) to have any decent guess of what happened. All I know it is something exceptionally rare that happened. 767s don't do this.


Actually, given the detailed evidence on the CVR and DFDR, they know pretty-much exactly what happened here. And as I have said, basically everything that is necessary to figure out what happened was in that investigative update, as well as the comments of Greg Feith and the absence of certain kinds of manufacturer/FAA action that we would see by now if the investigation was going in certain directions. So you can, for purposes of theorizing, rule a bunch of stuff out even if the NTSB will dutifully run those trails out just to make sure.

And now they are putting together a preliminary report laying it out in great detail, with all sorts of evidence to back it up. And they are running down all other possibilities, as good investigators do, just to make sure that nobody can say that they overlooked something that would have led to a different conclusion. Because (as is often the case), there will be many, many people who don't want to believe that what happened is what happened.

The preliminary report will draw no conclusions, but the release of the data will make it pretty-clear where the final report and determination of probable cause will end up. And between those two milestones, and about a year, there will be a lot of people and organizations with vested interests making a comparatively-large amount of noise about it (for a freighter accident in which paying passengers were not killed). And the hearing should be interesting too. One reason for that is that it is just kismet that this wasn't a passenger Atlas 767 flying troops. They bent one of those a little while back, and I said at the time that the military would/should be pissed about what happened there and why it happened, given that that was indeed a planeload of troops on an Altas 767. (And I was roundly-castigated for saying that, by the way.) With this, if I am the head of AMC, I am taking a strong look at what happened and why.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:34 pm

asdf wrote:
i think they modified it because it was NOT a console imput but a malfunction from electronic or a mechanical issue


The NTSB changed the wording because their initial very-carefully-assembled investigative update said something that wasn't correct?

I don't think that was it. I think that what happened was that Twitter exploded with people taking that statement as confirmation that it was suicide, so they changed the wording to say effectively the same thing without attributing it to an apparent cause that people were misinterpreting. And maybe somebody in the NTSB concluded that the statement made it a bit too easy to infer a probable cause or that it sounded like they were making a probable-cause determination, so they talked about the control surfaces rather than what was acting upon them, even though they knew darn well what happened.

I think you can take it to the bank that control inputs on the yoke did exactly what NTSB said it did, but that this was not intentional self-harm from the flying pilot.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:39 pm

scbriml wrote:

kordcj wrote:
Is it possible to accidentally engage TOGA?


Discounted up-thread.


Well you can't engage TOGA because this aircraft only has paddles for GA.

If it was "discounted up thread", it was done so because people thought GA was inhibited in the config the a/c was in and that in that config it wouldn't roll on to max thrust. But I think another poster corrected them by pointing out a few things. I think you would find that it is entirely-possible that GA could have been engaged accidentally here, and that it would cause an advance to max thrust.
 
SkyGrunt
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:47 pm

OldB747Driver wrote:
Okey-dokee, <deep breath>, here we go, brace, brace, brace...

The increasingly capable technology that allows the easy recording of essentially everything, as well as the nearly real-time or instantaneous monitoring of it, is, in itself, not a bad thing. As the saying goes, if we don't learn from history, we are bound to relive it.In the case of tragedy, to NOT use this technology would then become itself, tragedy.

Sadly, the same human imperfections that allow these mistakes to occur also allow for the abuse of that same technology, as I hinted above. There is the human trait of "rubber-necking", or the inability to turn away from the proverbial train wreck despite the potential gore - of possibly because of it. There is the human behavior that, largely due to their lack of knowledge on a subject, people become offended by information whose meaning they don't fully comprehend and then create the proverbial tempest in a teapot. Finally add in the human trait of manipulating the information meant to help maintain a safety culture in a highly technical field could also be used in non-safety related ways to give a separate group some kind of advantage which usually, but not always, means money.

Pilots are humans, too, of course. What separates a professional pilot from 'just' pilots and non-pilots is generally their ability to understand abstract concepts and efficiently apply them to routine operations of high performance aircraft. This description is deserved through the rigorous amount of training and standards required to fly professionally. Does it mean all professional are "sky gods"? Far from it (see the first 3 words of this paragraph) but in the U.S. system, being a "qualified" crewmember in any U.S. airline means you've done a lot more than just 'love to fly' and had an extra $100,000 laying around to blow on flight training. (There are ALWAYS exception to the rule, but stay with me here...)

Despite these qualifications, when we sit up there on the flight deck, our ability to function for up to a 16-hour work day is dependent on a lot of things, including the ability to 'entertain' our minds while the jet, on autopilot, drones across the sky in that 15th hour of duty and 8th hour of flight operations which in itself is the culmination of a myriad of decisions we've processed throughout that day - gate delays, passenger issues, Flight Attendent concerns, modified ATC clearances, maintenance deferrals and how they will alter our legality in the operation of an already complex dance of weather, systems limitations and human factors. When we are finally in that smooth air in the waning hours of the day, we are NOT glued to the engine instruments waiting for a hiccup of data that will send us into a flurry of checklists, but in reality, we are trying to find a way to mentally keep us awake and in the game, together with a prudent schedule of monitoring the overall progress of the flight.

To the unblinking eye of a camera, and taken without context, a video of almost anything NOT flight related would be, to the un-educated or biased eye, incriminating. If an FAA that thinks a flight crew should be fully alert in a day at the 8th hour or flying after 15 hours of operations, late at night, why would they rule any differently if one of the pilots, say, pulled out some of his or her email to read while trying to stay mentally engaged under these conditions? Yes, the FAA does state that ultimately the pilot "knows best" and remove themselves from this condition, but the then the FAA should also "know best" that in our highly competitive business environment, if you allow a business to make a long, busy schedule regardless of weather, they WILL do it if it makes them money. Pilots know that grounding an airplane at an outstation is a VERY costly event, not to mention inconveient for their passengers. But, you know, wink-wink, pilots are always fit to fly or they call in unfit!

The realistic answer is that, until everyone gets a lot more honest with their own behaviors (or the behavior of the entity they are responsible for) things like cockpit video recorders will keep running into jet-stream-like headwinds.


Thank you for this
 
OldB747Driver
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:16 pm

scbriml wrote:
OldB747Driver wrote:
I noticed that the Captain, while having a respectable overall time around 11,000, having only around 1,500 as a Captain in the B767 seemed a little low, especially considering that one would expect that he would have accumulated most of that in the right seat before upgrading, if I'm reading that right.


What is this obsession with hours on this site? Presumably at the point they're promoted, every pilot has zero hours as captain?


Its a valid question, scbriml.

In a modern airliner, a zero hour captain is usually (at least) a few thousand hour first officer. A zero hour first officer is usually a many thousand hour freight dog or corporate jock or flight instructor.

I instructed at a "zero to right seat of a regional airline" for a bit and can tell you that, with the right tools, you can develop some fine pilots in a fairly short time; unfortunately what they lacked was experience; while they could fly an ILS to Cat I minimums without blinking an eye, most non-standard events produced a "deer in the headlights" response - which is normal, BTW.

Now, you are right that we were all a "deer in the headlights" at one time, but the beauty of the U.S. system prior to the last 10-15 years was that the supply of pilots outpaced the demand and airlines could be selective about who flew their jet, which allowed for hiring experienced pilots as F/O and the normal seniority-based system allowed for the F/O's to continue their learning from experienced captains before assuming the role of Captain themselves.

So, while it is true you can have a professional pilot at 200 hours and an amateur at 2000, in either case, experience means a lot in this field and while a professional 200 hour pilot can be "sharp", the 2000 hour pilot has seen ten times as many problems, scenarios, failures and personalities on the flight deck. There's simply no getting around that.

As a personal anecdote, I was a 9000+ hour pilot with 6000+ hours as PIC ( ~3000 as a Captain at a regional ) when I transitioned to the B747 and, while I learned the airplane, operations protocol and the sim fairly quickly, my head was swimming the first few flights and I did not become "comfortable" with the aircraft for about 6 months of flying - the "comfortable" does not mean "ready to take command", which includes a whole slew of other concerns beyond the aircraft's operation, including proper supervision of the F/O when he/she is flying the aircraft... that YOU are responsible for. And I've been bitten by that bug a few times, just not lethally.
 
asdf
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:27 pm

wjcandee wrote:
asdf wrote:
i think they modified it because it was NOT a console imput but a malfunction from electronic or a mechanical issue


The NTSB changed the wording because their initial very-carefully-assembled investigative update said something that wasn't correct?

I don't think that was it. I think that what happened was that Twitter exploded with people taking that statement as confirmation that it was suicide, so they changed the wording to say effectively the same thing without attributing it to an apparent cause that people were misinterpreting. And maybe somebody in the NTSB concluded that the statement made it a bit too easy to infer a probable cause or that it sounded like they were making a probable-cause determination, so they talked about the control surfaces rather than what was acting upon them, even though they knew darn well what happened.

I think you can take it to the bank that control inputs on the yoke did exactly what NTSB said it did, but that this was not intentional self-harm from the flying pilot.


no one knows

could be that way you point at
or not

i think if it was correct they would not have changed it
why would they?
a NTSB investigation is not a cover up, isnt it?
its rather the opposite

why would they disguise a procedure they had already comprehended?


the other way around it makes a bit more sense from my point of view

my guss:
The person who wrote the report has purposely pulled conclusions himself (console moves) although the actual investigation was only able to determine that the elevator was moving
 
OldB747Driver
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:30 pm

Loss of life or an aircraft is no laughing matter, but do you remember the "Breaking News" report of that San Francisco area station about the names of the flight crew involved with the Asiana B777 that impacted the sea wall?

    Sum Tin Wong
    Wi Tu Lo
    Ho Lee Fuk
    Bang Ding Ow

Because it exposed the 'fact-free' reporting that the media attempts as they report on aviation-related topics (much like that Business Insider article), I appreciated the probable exasperation of the person at the NTSB in responding to the relentless persuit of the media to have a shiny object (not information that will benefit the public, but something that helps them sell more ad space). Point is, as far as the media is concerned, you probably aren't reading the direct words of the lead investigator.

In the same vein, I'm not sure who finally transcribes the press release updates, but I assume they are someone with aviation knowledge that is given information for release but not necessarily how it is to be worded and assumptions can be made. In this case, what they came up with was later questioned and found, for one reason or another, to make an assumption they did not know for certain or was incorrect on its face.
Last edited by OldB747Driver on Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:18 pm

Someone mentioned 'train wreck'. There actually is an appropriately relevant NTSB report not yet finished long after the Amtrak disaster near the Nisqually delta December 2017. Obviously the engineer failed to slow the train for a 30mph corner, and hit it at 79mph. Three people were killed (and not the engineer). People have complained that NTSB is too slow. But knowing the previously mentioned fact does not explain the 'why?'. Was the engineer sick, distracted, inappropriately hired, trained, inappropriately unfamiliar with the route, were the tracks and or signals partially at fault? There was no Positive Train Control, was it reckless not to have waited for that improvement? All of that takes a lot of time, and there is a possibility that there will only be probable contributing causes as well as operator error.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
xjcsa
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:46 pm

asdf wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
asdf wrote:
i think they modified it because it was NOT a console imput but a malfunction from electronic or a mechanical issue


The NTSB changed the wording because their initial very-carefully-assembled investigative update said something that wasn't correct?

I don't think that was it. I think that what happened was that Twitter exploded with people taking that statement as confirmation that it was suicide, so they changed the wording to say effectively the same thing without attributing it to an apparent cause that people were misinterpreting. And maybe somebody in the NTSB concluded that the statement made it a bit too easy to infer a probable cause or that it sounded like they were making a probable-cause determination, so they talked about the control surfaces rather than what was acting upon them, even though they knew darn well what happened.

I think you can take it to the bank that control inputs on the yoke did exactly what NTSB said it did, but that this was not intentional self-harm from the flying pilot.


no one knows

could be that way you point at
or not

i think if it was correct they would not have changed it
why would they?
a NTSB investigation is not a cover up, isnt it?
its rather the opposite

why would they disguise a procedure they had already comprehended?


the other way around it makes a bit more sense from my point of view

my guss:
The person who wrote the report has purposely pulled conclusions himself (console moves) although the actual investigation was only able to determine that the elevator was moving


You're asking questions that he literally answered in the post you're responding to.
 
glideslope900
Posts: 119
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:06 am

I have heard a rumour unofficially that this is what happened-

FO calls for flaps 1, and CA accidentally hits TOGA. TOGA does not engage until flaps hit 1.

Throttles go to GA power and airplane pitches up. FO, startled, pushes down. CA pulls back and there is a tug of war. CA shears the bolts of his control column.

Upon breaking out of IMC, FO sees water, gets re oriented, and tries to pull out of dive.

CVR “very startling, loud noises, unbelievable, thud which could be JS hitting ceiling.”
 
wjcandee
Posts: 7663
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:14 am

That's what's up on PPRUNE, and I think it's probably a smidge off on the initiation description just knowing how that system operates.

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