iamlucky13
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:25 pm

N14AZ wrote:
CitizenJustin wrote:
I wish they’d release the security tape from that Jail sooner than later.

Hmmm, I don’t expect much information from that video. Most probably you will just see an aircraft nosediving but I cannot imagine you will see the reason for the nosedive... similar to the video footage of the B737 crash in Russia some years ago.


Depending on the resolution, it may be possible to tell if the tail surfaces were intact. It's not much, but unless I missed it, the only comment about what the video showed was ambiguous, along the lines of "no attempt to pull up was discernible."

One of the Houston TV stations has what I think is a second video, taken from a school security camera, which shows very little - a couple frames of the very distant plane silhouetted against an over-exposed sky:
https://www.click2houston.com/news/vide ... rinity-bay

The article also mentions the usual witness reports of unusual engine sounds. That's unreliable information though. I can't think of an initial crash report that I've read where witnesses did not report unusual engine sounds, even though often the engines are later determined to be working fine.
 
IAHWorldflyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:34 pm

klm617 wrote:
Might this be a case as the same thing with EA 663 at JFK in 1965 making some sort of sharp maneuver and then getting disorientated in the clouds with no point of reference.


Not to be rude, but mistaking the bay for the clouds would seem far-fetched since they would have to be so unaware of their horizon line that they pushed the stick forward to an incredible degree. This wasn't a gradual glide-slope drop, this was a sharp fall.
I think something mechanical happened that the flight crew was unable to recover from. I know that's simplistic, but all we really know at this point is that the plane was in a normal descent and traffic pattern to land at IAH, when they suddenly plunged 7000' in about 12 seconds. None of the other traffic in this approach pattern encountered winds or weather strong enough to affect their performance, so whatever happened to Atlas Air 3591 was unique to this aircraft and this crew.
My only conspiracy type question is why were the remains of crew member #3 not found in the same area as crew member's #1 and #2, and why were their bodies intact, while the 3rd crew member's body ( trying to be delicate here) was not intact? Hopefully the shallow dredging going on today will yield the CVR and there will be some clarity.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:42 pm

EA 663 involved VISUAL evasive action at night overwater with no visual horizon, well-known lead in to spatial disorientation. Here the plane wasn’t, as we know so far, taking evading action and likely was in cloud so flying on instruments and unable to visually spot traffic anyway. Unlikely.

However, in the late 80s a USAF C-141 was lost going into Eglin AFB at night. Crew was flying to have focused on a thunderstorm north of the field to the point of losing SA and flying into the ground, but not a sharp descent like this case.


GF
 
klm617
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:17 pm

IAHWorldflyer wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Might this be a case as the same thing with EA 663 at JFK in 1965 making some sort of sharp maneuver and then getting disorientated in the clouds with no point of reference.


Not to be rude, but mistaking the bay for the clouds would seem far-fetched since they would have to be so unaware of their horizon line that they pushed the stick forward to an incredible degree. This wasn't a gradual glide-slope drop, this was a sharp fall.
I think something mechanical happened that the flight crew was unable to recover from. I know that's simplistic, but all we really know at this point is that the plane was in a normal descent and traffic pattern to land at IAH, when they suddenly plunged 7000' in about 12 seconds. None of the other traffic in this approach pattern encountered winds or weather strong enough to affect their performance, so whatever happened to Atlas Air 3591 was unique to this aircraft and this crew.
My only conspiracy type question is why were the remains of crew member #3 not found in the same area as crew member's #1 and #2, and why were their bodies intact, while the 3rd crew member's body ( trying to be delicate here) was not intact? Hopefully the shallow dredging going on today will yield the CVR and there will be some clarity.


You're not being rude at all just my thought that in the heavy cloud cover that one might not know up from down. Anyway what is your theory about why the bodies are the way that you say they are ?
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:19 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
EA 663 involved VISUAL evasive action at night overwater with no visual horizon, well-known lead in to spatial disorientation. Here the plane wasn’t, as we know so far, taking evading action and likely was in cloud so flying on instruments and unable to visually spot traffic anyway. Unlikely.

However, in the late 80s a USAF C-141 was lost going into Eglin AFB at night. Crew was flying to have focused on a thunderstorm north of the field to the point of losing SA and flying into the ground, but not a sharp descent like this case.


GF


My thought was maybe and evasive action to avoid weather not so much to avoid other traffic. Anyway it was just a thought. Another thing that came to mind was perhaps for some odd reason the crew was getting incorrect speed readings for some reason.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
TSS
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:16 pm

IAHWorldflyer wrote:
My only conspiracy type question is why were the remains of crew member #3 not found in the same area as crew member's #1 and #2, and why were their bodies intact, while the 3rd crew member's body (trying to be delicate here) was not intact? Hopefully the shallow dredging going on today will yield the CVR and there will be some clarity.

My guess would be that the cockpit area broke up on impact, so even if all three crew members were strapped in to their seats one of the seats may have been thrown further or in a different direction than the other two. Also trying to be as delicate as possible (not my forte by any means), a lack of intactness might be explained by close contact with sharp bits of metal in a violent situation during the crash or by contact with local fauna post-crash.
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trnswrld
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:46 pm

Didn’t see this posted yet, but I found some good quality video of that plane performing it’s very last landing and takeoff that day. The video is dragged on, but the landing into MIA is at 3:00 into the vid, and flight 3591 departing for IAH is at 5:30. Very eerie to see that aircraft just a few hours before the tragedy. Note, this is not the MIA wedcam video that was posted several pages ago.
Beautiful looking aircraft. :(

https://youtu.be/V3gzVdY3-To
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:33 pm

klm617 wrote:
Might this be a case as the same thing with EA 663 at JFK in 1965 making some sort of sharp maneuver and then getting disorientated in the clouds with no point of reference.


If so that would be really sad and perplexing. There is no reason to disengage the autopilot until stabilized on final approach. The FMS and autopilot don't get disoriented, humans do.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:49 pm

There’s plenty of reasons to hand fly just as there are plenty of reasons to aid CRM by using the autopilot. If you can’t hand fly the plane in cloud, you have no reason to be there—it’s pretty instinctual.

GF
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:17 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
There’s plenty of reasons to hand fly just as there are plenty of reasons to aid CRM by using the autopilot. If you can’t hand fly the plane in cloud, you have no reason to be there—it’s pretty instinctual.

GF


Unless there is a malfunction then why wouldn't you just input the parameters in the autopilot? I know there are pilots who think they are above making mistakes but that's just not the reality. So many crashes have happened because of hand flying in IMC and pilots being disoriented. For example, had the Aerflot pilots simply let go of the control column the aircraft would have righted itself and they would srill be alive.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:27 pm

The 5Y pilots would not be disoriented below cloud cover... there had to be a reason they could not pull up.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:30 pm

The autoflight system is an aid to the pilot, not a system as crutch for lacking basic piloting skills. As I said, if you can’t fly a normal flight evolution, excepting things like tight RNP procedures, you shouldn’t be there.

Automation can just as easily become overwhelming and require going back to lower levels of automation. One of the keys to flying automation is to know what level you should be using. Example: Everything is programmed, going into KTEB, ATC throws a wrench with a tight turn on combined with huge tailwind, my right seater says, “here comes the LOC”. I’m dropping the autopilot, using the HUD to manually intererceot rather than let the autopilot overshoot the course. Going into SDU, it’s a tight turn inside Corcovado, it’s hand flying. Approaching the LOM at VABB, ATC cancels the ILS clearance, issues the holding instruction, configured and a mile from the fix. Try programming a hold in when you’re inside the pattern. Get rid of the autopilot, ask the co-pilot, “is it right or left turns” and turn while cleaning up. There are ILS, like Monterey, CA that prohibits use of autopilot (used to anyway, not sure now) inside the glide slope intercept. 3am, the marine layer rolls in, weather’s at mind, you have to hand fly it. New pilot, I’m flying leaving Zhu Hai to HKG, quickly sense new pilot in right seat is being saturated with language and rapid fire controller, “Autopilot ON, how can I help?”

Proficiency in an airplane isn’t just typing.

GF
 
trnswrld
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:03 am

WPvsMW wrote:
The 5Y pilots would not be disoriented below cloud cover... there had to be a reason they could not pull up.


My understanding is they were in IMC conditions. Only would they have come out of the clouds and seen the ground once it was way too late to pull the aircraft out of it.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:50 am

See video link in post 857.
VFR at the end. No change in attitude.
 
trnswrld
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:02 am

WPvsMW wrote:
See video link in post 857.
VFR at the end. No change in attitude.


I’m not sure you’re understanding what we saw in that video. First off a 767 is not a fighter jet. At that angle and speed the airplane is not going to react fast at all to control inputs. By the time they popped out of the clouds there was probably no time to recover the airplane. Again, my understanding is the airplane was originally cruising in IMC conditions, somehow got into an upset or unusual attitude and was beyond recoverable by the time the crew would have been able to see the ground outside the windows.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:37 am

I understand your point.
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:52 pm

The security cam footage is grainy, but very telling. The plane was in fact just falling out of the sky.
 
Western727
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:32 pm

trnswrld wrote:
Didn’t see this posted yet, but I found some good quality video of that plane performing it’s very last landing and takeoff that day. The video is dragged on, but the landing into MIA is at 3:00 into the vid, and flight 3591 departing for IAH is at 5:30. Very eerie to see that aircraft just a few hours before the tragedy. Note, this is not the MIA wedcam video that was posted several pages ago.
Beautiful looking aircraft. :(

https://youtu.be/V3gzVdY3-To


Goose bumps. Beautiful, indeed.

Forgive me for asking a totally off-topic question: why is there an Ethiopian Cargo 737 landing at MIA?
Jack @ AUS
 
Redsand187
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:54 pm

IAHWorldflyer wrote:
[quote="klm617"
My only conspiracy type question is why were the remains of crew member #3 not found in the same area as crew member's #1 and #2, and why were their bodies intact, while the 3rd crew member's body ( trying to be delicate here) was not intact? Hopefully the shallow dredging going on today will yield the CVR and there will be some clarity.

Perhaps there was some sort of mechanical issue/noise that #3 went to go assess, then it broke and sent the plane into a dive?
 
TSS
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:31 pm

Redsand187 wrote:
IAHWorldflyer wrote:
My only conspiracy type question is why were the remains of crew member #3 not found in the same area as crew member's #1 and #2, and why were their bodies intact, while the 3rd crew member's body ( trying to be delicate here) was not intact? Hopefully the shallow dredging going on today will yield the CVR and there will be some clarity.

Perhaps there was some sort of mechanical issue/noise that #3 went to go assess, then it broke and sent the plane into a dive?

Possibly, but where would he have gone? It's my understanding that cargo planes have the cockpit, then some form of sanitary facilities (from what I've read, due to the small number of people on board a bucket, a curtain, and a roll of toilet paper constitute more than adequate "sanitary facilities", though some planes might have a toilet that is a bit more sophisticated), and from there back it's wall-to-wall cargo on Amazon flights.
Able to kill active threads stone dead with a single post!
 
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SaveFerris
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:42 pm

TSS wrote:
Redsand187 wrote:
IAHWorldflyer wrote:
My only conspiracy type question is why were the remains of crew member #3 not found in the same area as crew member's #1 and #2, and why were their bodies intact, while the 3rd crew member's body ( trying to be delicate here) was not intact? Hopefully the shallow dredging going on today will yield the CVR and there will be some clarity.

Perhaps there was some sort of mechanical issue/noise that #3 went to go assess, then it broke and sent the plane into a dive?

Possibly, but where would he have gone? It's my understanding that cargo planes have the cockpit, then some form of sanitary facilities (from what I've read, due to the small number of people on board a bucket, a curtain, and a roll of toilet paper constitute more than adequate "sanitary facilities", though some planes might have a toilet that is a bit more sophisticated), and from there back it's wall-to-wall cargo on Amazon flights.


This is correct (although not that it matters but all of Prime Air airplanes have a real lavatory), there is an access door to the cargo hold by the L1 door but if the main deck is full you can’t go very far, you would be lucky to get past the first pallet. Unfortunately I have no way of checking to see the payload on the flight so I have no idea how full the main deck was.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:48 pm

TSS wrote:
Redsand187 wrote:
IAHWorldflyer wrote:
My only conspiracy type question is why were the remains of crew member #3 not found in the same area as crew member's #1 and #2, and why were their bodies intact, while the 3rd crew member's body ( trying to be delicate here) was not intact? Hopefully the shallow dredging going on today will yield the CVR and there will be some clarity.

Perhaps there was some sort of mechanical issue/noise that #3 went to go assess, then it broke and sent the plane into a dive?

Possibly, but where would he have gone? It's my understanding that cargo planes have the cockpit, then some form of sanitary facilities (from what I've read, due to the small number of people on board a bucket, a curtain, and a roll of toilet paper constitute more than adequate "sanitary facilities", though some planes might have a toilet that is a bit more sophisticated), and from there back it's wall-to-wall cargo on Amazon flights.


The 3rd body being up and about makes no sense as the 3rd body found was of the Captain. The first two that were found were the FO and the JS. Likely just the forces of impact segregated the crew members. Also, what we don’t know is the exact angle of impact, we have some (relative) higher altitude images but it may be possible that they rolled or pitched at the last second allowing for starboard side to impact first and the port side later, which would place the captain further apart from the other two.

So tragic.
Lighten up while you still can, don't even try to understand, just find a place to make your stand and take it easy
 
CWizard
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:53 pm

TSS wrote:
Redsand187 wrote:
Possibly, but where would he have gone? It's my understanding that cargo planes have the cockpit, then some form of sanitary facilities (from what I've read, due to the small number of people on board a bucket, a curtain, and a roll of toilet paper constitute more than adequate "sanitary facilities", though some planes might have a toilet that is a bit more sophisticated), and from there back it's wall-to-wall cargo on Amazon flights.


Well, I haven't seen every cargo plane flying today, but every A300F, DC/MD-10F, MD-11F, 767F and 777F I've been on had a full head and some had galleys complete with coffee makers.
 
TSS
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:59 pm

CWizard wrote:
TSS wrote:
Possibly, but where would he have gone? It's my understanding that cargo planes have the cockpit, then some form of sanitary facilities (from what I've read, due to the small number of people on board a bucket, a curtain, and a roll of toilet paper constitute more than adequate "sanitary facilities", though some planes might have a toilet that is a bit more sophisticated), and from there back it's wall-to-wall cargo on Amazon flights.


Well, I haven't seen every cargo plane flying today, but every A300F, DC/MD-10F, MD-11F, 767F and 777F I've been on had a full head and some had galleys complete with coffee makers.


Fair enough. It's been a long time since I read about the "Bucket & Curtain" facilities on some cargo aircraft, so those might have been on early DC-8, 707, or 727 conversions, or perhaps on even older propellor-driven aircraft. Blowing a little more dust off those memory files, it seems that the original description of such minimalist facilities was presented in the context of "You new cargo pilots don't know how easy you've got it, when I started flying cargo ______ (DC-8s? DC-6s? DC-3s?!?), all we had was a bucket, a curtain, and a roll of toilet paper and we felt privileged to have the curtain and the roll of toilet paper!", or words to that effect. Either way, it was quite a vivid image painted with words and my apologies for not remembering what aircraft made up the background of that image.
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FlyHossD
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:04 pm

CWizard wrote:
TSS wrote:
Redsand187 wrote:
Possibly, but where would he have gone? It's my understanding that cargo planes have the cockpit, then some form of sanitary facilities (from what I've read, due to the small number of people on board a bucket, a curtain, and a roll of toilet paper constitute more than adequate "sanitary facilities", though some planes might have a toilet that is a bit more sophisticated), and from there back it's wall-to-wall cargo on Amazon flights.


Well, I haven't seen every cargo plane flying today, but every A300F, DC/MD-10F, MD-11F, 767F and 777F I've been on had a full head and some had galleys complete with coffee makers.


Seems like I read on this forum that some AmeriJet 727s weren't equipped with standard lavs. But that was some years ago and maybe my memory is faulty.
My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
 
Philbky
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:02 pm

Back at SNN in 1965 Pan American DC7CF had a galley and proper toilet left over from conversion from DC7C.
 
CO953
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:44 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
TSS wrote:
Redsand187 wrote:
Perhaps there was some sort of mechanical issue/noise that #3 went to go assess, then it broke and sent the plane into a dive?

Possibly, but where would he have gone? It's my understanding that cargo planes have the cockpit, then some form of sanitary facilities (from what I've read, due to the small number of people on board a bucket, a curtain, and a roll of toilet paper constitute more than adequate "sanitary facilities", though some planes might have a toilet that is a bit more sophisticated), and from there back it's wall-to-wall cargo on Amazon flights.


The 3rd body being up and about makes no sense as the 3rd body found was of the Captain. The first two that were found were the FO and the JS. Likely just the forces of impact segregated the crew members. Also, what we don’t know is the exact angle of impact, we have some (relative) higher altitude images but it may be possible that they rolled or pitched at the last second allowing for starboard side to impact first and the port side later, which would place the captain further apart from the other two.

So tragic.


I understand your point. But I'm not sure we've had any firm info that the captain was in the cockpit, either. Wasn't the jumpseat rider with a regional commuter - I assume not certified in the 767 or cargo operations? To me, if there was some serious issue developing that needed visual/audio checking, wouldn't it be more likely that the captain or FO would be the one to go check - that is, as folks have said - if the cargo load left some room to pass toward the rear? To rebut my own statement, why would one of them leave the cockpit at 7,000 feet? But then again, wasn't the last transmission supposedly by someone different - the FO, I believe, and tense? It seems that tasks were being juggled. With such a nosedown impact, I'm not so sure about impact forces segregating the two supposedly seated closest together.

Just speculation, obviously, but I'm trying to think of the different possible scenarios. And, of course, this once again highlights the total insanity, in the 21st century, of not having realtime data CVR/FDR transmission. If there's a mechanical failure involved, there may be another converted sister ship out there right now, with the same flaw, about to fall out of the sky. Just like Lion Air, the industry needs answers NOW, to best protect crew and the flying public, not later, after waiting for dredges, etc. The delay is inexcusable, and is happening time and time again.
 
barney captain
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:01 pm

I've never seen or heard of a modern cargo jet aircraft without a full lav and at least a partial galley. Many of the larger aircraft have a complement of recliner seats for additional jumpseaters and are far superior to any coach product. Some of the best food I've eaten on an aircraft (short of J or F) has been on Fedex.

Imo, this almost certainly has to be a structural or flight control failure.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
VeeCee
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:11 pm

 
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ER757
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:18 pm

VeeCee wrote:

Hopefully it is intact and the info is able to be downloaded - should provide valuable clues - will still be very helpful if they can find the FDR as well.
 
THS214
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:46 pm

barney captain wrote:
I've never seen or heard of a modern cargo jet aircraft without a full lav and at least a partial galley. Many of the larger aircraft have a complement of recliner seats for additional jumpseaters and are far superior to any coach product. Some of the best food I've eaten on an aircraft (short of J or F) has been on Fedex.

Imo, this almost certainly has to be a structural or flight control failure.


Most of the Fedex are converted. Maybe that is why you think you had better food. UPS and Fedex have different front with for example 757s and some other planes.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:55 pm

ER757 wrote:
VeeCee wrote:

Hopefully it is intact and the info is able to be downloaded - should provide valuable clues - will still be very helpful if they can find the FDR as well.


Personally, I can't imagine that they won't find the FDR, and I'd be surprised if it was so damaged that it couldn't provide usable feedback (ditto the CVR). Obviously things happen, though.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
xjcsa
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:01 pm

A possible scenario:

As noted by others, there was an FAA Airworthiness Directive, which read, in part, as follows:

On August 18, 2000, we issued AD 2000-17-05, Amendment 39-11879 (65 FR 51754, August 25, 2000), for certain The Boeing Company Model 767-200, -300, and -300F series airplanes. That AD requires a one-time functional check of the shear rivets in all six PCA bellcrank assemblies to determine the condition of the shear rivets; and replacement or rework of the bellcrank assemblies, if necessary. That AD resulted from reports that elevator bellcrank assemblies with failed shear rivets had been found on three Model 767 airplanes. We issued that AD to detect and correct any failed or partially yielded shear rivets of the elevator PCA bellcrank assemblies. Failure of two bellcrank assemblies on one side can result in that single elevator surface moving to a hardover position, independent of pilot command, resulting in a significant pitch upset recoverable by the crew. Failure of three bellcrank assemblies on one side could result in loss of control of the airplane.


Others have noted the possibility that the failure was related to the problems identified in this series of Airworthiness Directives; perhaps the prescribed fix was in some way inadequate.

So, a possible scenario that seems to fit the events:

1. Atlas 3591 departs Miami bound for Houston. Unbeknownst to the crew, one bellcrank assembly in the tail has previously failed and two others are in poor condition.

2. Captain's voice to Houston ATC: "Good afternoon, Giant 3591, 17.8, descending via the LINKK and we have Sierra." The FO is flying the airplane on this leg; the Captain is handling radios. So far, all is well.

3. At 18:37:31Z, at approximately 7,000' while flying the approach pattern for IAH, a second bellcrank assembly fails, resulting in a significant pitch upset. The captain takes control; the FO switches to radio duties. The captain pulls back hard on the yoke and recovers control, actually gaining altitude briefly before returning to the planned level. The failed assembly puts additional pressure on the other two assemblies, which are now nearing failure points.

4. The captain continues flying the airplane and working to diagnose the problem; he executes a left turn to verify that he has sufficient control. Control is satisfactory, but the crew is a bit concerned.

5. The FO, now handling radio duties, begins a conversation with ATC regarding diverting around some thunderstorms.

6. At 18:38:36, about one minute after the first bellcrank assembly failed, with the aircraft at about 6,000 feet in altitude, a third assembly begins to fail; the captain again fights to maintain correct pitch, again briefly gaining some altitude before returning to the pattern altitude. This occurs during the FO's last transmission, which sounds a bit rushed and possibly stressed.

7. At 18:38:46, the third bellcrank assemfly fails completely, leading to a sharp pitch-down attitude and resulting in complete loss of vertical control of the airplane. The crew, focusing entirely on saving the airplane, makes no additional radio calls.

8. The airplane impacts the ground at high speed.

//

Obviously this is entirely speculative, and even if some of it turns out to be right, most of it will probably turn out to be wrong. Just an effort to come up with *a* scenario that could fit the facts.
 
IAHWorldflyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:08 pm

Very happy they have recovered the CVR and it's on the way to Washington. That's good news.
If any of you are unaware, the search teams are using airboats due to the shallow water in the area, and are picking up every single piece of the 767 and taking all those pieces to land. The NTSB will rent a warehouse somewhere and try to piece together the entire airplane, just like they did with TWA 800. It's a huge project. It will just take time and tremendous manhours. I think the FDR will be found in the coming days.
 
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Erebus
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:15 pm

IAHWorldflyer wrote:
The NTSB will rent a warehouse somewhere and try to piece together the entire airplane, just like they did with TWA 800. It's a huge project. It will just take time and tremendous manhours. I think the FDR will be found in the coming days.


Will the NTSB do this even if the cause can easily be determined from the CVR and FDR data?
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:32 pm

IAHWorldflyer wrote:
Very happy they have recovered the CVR and it's on the way to Washington. That's good news.
If any of you are unaware, the search teams are using airboats due to the shallow water in the area, and are picking up every single piece of the 767 and taking all those pieces to land. The NTSB will rent a warehouse somewhere and try to piece together the entire airplane, just like they did with TWA 800. It's a huge project. It will just take time and tremendous manhours. I think the FDR will be found in the coming days.


If the CVR and FDR provide the needed answers, I don't think they'll waste the time. With TWA 800 they had no clue and conspiracy theorists breathing down their neck.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:39 pm

If the data leads toward a mechanical or structural failure, they’ll reassemble what’s needed to prove the theory and provide evidence to fixes.


GF
 
IAHWorldflyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:46 pm

7BOEING7 wrote:
IAHWorldflyer wrote:
Very happy they have recovered the CVR and it's on the way to Washington. That's good news.
If any of you are unaware, the search teams are using airboats due to the shallow water in the area, and are picking up every single piece of the 767 and taking all those pieces to land. The NTSB will rent a warehouse somewhere and try to piece together the entire airplane, just like they did with TWA 800. It's a huge project. It will just take time and tremendous manhours. I think the FDR will be found in the coming days.


If the CVR and FDR provide the needed answers, I don't think they'll waste the time. With TWA 800 they had no clue and conspiracy theorists breathing down their neck.


I see your point. You are correct that if the FDR and CVR can specify the cause with certainty, re-constructing the pieces will not be necessary. However, at the current time, the recovery mission is to bring every scrap of that plane they find back to land and into storage. I'm just trying to relay what is actually happening here, in real time.
 
OB1504
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:49 pm

Western727 wrote:
Forgive me for asking a totally off-topic question: why is there an Ethiopian Cargo 737 landing at MIA?


It’s one of two 737s being converted to freighters for Ethiopian. Probably a test flight.

barney captain wrote:
I've never seen or heard of a modern cargo jet aircraft without a full lav and at least a partial galley. Many of the larger aircraft have a complement of recliner seats for additional jumpseaters and are far superior to any coach product. Some of the best food I've eaten on an aircraft (short of J or F) has been on Fedex.


I recall uproar at Amerijet because they either didn’t have lavs on their 727s or didn’t plan to install them on their 767s
 
N126DL
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:53 pm

https://twitter.com/NTSB_Newsroom/statu ... 8539663360

I've stared at this piece of the wreckage for a good 10 clock minutes trying to figure out what part of the airplane it is from. Which 767 driver here can shed some light?
DH84 E135/145/175/190 CR2/7/9 A319/20/21 A332/3 D95 M80/83/88/90/95 73W/8/9 752/3 763/4 772/L
 
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FredrikHAD
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:03 pm

Do we know which runway they were supposed to land on? An approach to 08 seems to take 15 minutes from that point but with winds at 310 and 11 knots, I assume they’d be using rwy 33. That would leave less than 10 minutes until touchdown. Would any of the pilots leave the seat at that stage in bumpy weather and the other one talking to ATC without any mention of a major issue? I find that hard to believe, but I’m all ears. If they actually needed to ”check something out” in the cargo area, they would at least have requested to hold somewhere out of harms way, wouldn’t they? The fact that bodies were found at different locations surely cannot be because either of them was out of his seat.
 
WeatherPilot
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:11 pm

Don't know if it's been mentioned but the FBI is now investigating the crash.

https://www.planeandpilotmag.com/articl ... estigating
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:17 pm

They always do from the beginning, as the article said.

GF
 
jtamu97
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:18 pm

They were going for 26L
Propeller, we don't need no stinkin propeller
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:19 pm

FredrikHAD wrote:
Do we know which runway they were supposed to land on? An approach to 08 seems to take 15 minutes from that point but with winds at 310 and 11 knots, I assume they’d be using rwy 33. That would leave less than 10 minutes until touchdown. Would any of the pilots leave the seat at that stage in bumpy weather and the other one talking to ATC without any mention of a major issue? I find that hard to believe, but I’m all ears. If they actually needed to ”check something out” in the cargo area, they would at least have requested to hold somewhere out of harms way, wouldn’t they? The fact that bodies were found at different locations surely cannot be because either of them was out of his seat.


Had the winds changed at some point shortly before the crash? Winds 310 at 11 would suggest west flow and a landing on a 26 or 27, no?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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FredrikHAD
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:22 pm

jtamu97 wrote:
They were going for 26L

Ok, I think that would be even faster then, around 8-9 minutes.
 
Wacker1000
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:38 pm

N126DL wrote:
https://twitter.com/NTSB_Newsroom/status/1100183258539663360

I've stared at this piece of the wreckage for a good 10 clock minutes trying to figure out what part of the airplane it is from. Which 767 driver here can shed some light?


Probably rear turbine frame.
 
TSS
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:45 pm

IAHWorldflyer wrote:
7BOEING7 wrote:
IAHWorldflyer wrote:
Very happy they have recovered the CVR and it's on the way to Washington. That's good news.
If any of you are unaware, the search teams are using airboats due to the shallow water in the area, and are picking up every single piece of the 767 and taking all those pieces to land. The NTSB will rent a warehouse somewhere and try to piece together the entire airplane, just like they did with TWA 800. It's a huge project. It will just take time and tremendous manhours. I think the FDR will be found in the coming days.


If the CVR and FDR provide the needed answers, I don't think they'll waste the time. With TWA 800 they had no clue and conspiracy theorists breathing down their neck.


I see your point. You are correct that if the FDR and CVR can specify the cause with certainty, re-constructing the pieces will not be necessary. However, at the current time, the recovery mission is to bring every scrap of that plane they find back to land and into storage. I'm just trying to relay what is actually happening here, in real time.


I'll agree in general, but it seems like the best way to keep all the found parts organized would be to lay them out in their original location within the outline of a 767 on the floor of a warehouse even if reconstructing the aircraft in 3D on scaffolding as was done with TWA 800 proves unnecessary. Also, if the data from both the CVR and the FDR seem to agree on a specific cause such as structural or control surface failure, it would be much easier for investigators to literally walk to the area of the failure on the aircraft and start looking for clues as to the cause there rather than having to sift through crates, boxes, and containers to find the pieces they want.
Able to kill active threads stone dead with a single post!
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:51 pm

TSS wrote:
IAHWorldflyer wrote:
7BOEING7 wrote:

If the CVR and FDR provide the needed answers, I don't think they'll waste the time. With TWA 800 they had no clue and conspiracy theorists breathing down their neck.


I see your point. You are correct that if the FDR and CVR can specify the cause with certainty, re-constructing the pieces will not be necessary. However, at the current time, the recovery mission is to bring every scrap of that plane they find back to land and into storage. I'm just trying to relay what is actually happening here, in real time.


I'll agree in general, but it seems like the best way to keep all the found parts organized would be to lay them out in their original location within the outline of a 767 on the floor of a warehouse even if reconstructing the aircraft in 3D on scaffolding as was done with TWA 800 proves unnecessary. Also, if the data from both the CVR and the FDR seem to agree on a specific cause such as structural or control surface failure, it would be much easier for investigators to literally walk to the area of the failure on the aircraft and start looking for clues as to the cause there rather than having to sift through crates, boxes, and containers to find the pieces they want.


Better yet, with the computer power today take pictures/laser (3D) everything and do a virtual reconstruction as necessary. I think it will be pretty clear what happened or where to look after the boxes get read out.
 
klm617
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:54 pm

7BOEING7 wrote:
IAHWorldflyer wrote:
Very happy they have recovered the CVR and it's on the way to Washington. That's good news.
If any of you are unaware, the search teams are using airboats due to the shallow water in the area, and are picking up every single piece of the 767 and taking all those pieces to land. The NTSB will rent a warehouse somewhere and try to piece together the entire airplane, just like they did with TWA 800. It's a huge project. It will just take time and tremendous manhours. I think the FDR will be found in the coming days.


If the CVR and FDR provide the needed answers, I don't think they'll waste the time. With TWA 800 they had no clue and conspiracy theorists breathing down their neck.



TWA 800 was the same as Itavia 870
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...

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