TSS
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:07 am

7BOEING7 wrote:
TSS wrote:
IAHWorldflyer wrote:

I see your point. You are correct that if the FDR and CVR can specify the cause with certainty, re-constructing the pieces will not be necessary. However, at the current time, the recovery mission is to bring every scrap of that plane they find back to land and into storage. I'm just trying to relay what is actually happening here, in real time.


I'll agree in general, but it seems like the best way to keep all the found parts organized would be to lay them out in their original location within the outline of a 767 on the floor of a warehouse even if reconstructing the aircraft in 3D on scaffolding as was done with TWA 800 proves unnecessary. Also, if the data from both the CVR and the FDR seem to agree on a specific cause such as structural or control surface failure, it would be much easier for investigators to literally walk to the area of the failure on the aircraft and start looking for clues as to the cause there rather than having to sift through crates, boxes, and containers to find the pieces they want.


Better yet, with the computer power today take pictures/laser (3D) everything and do a virtual reconstruction as necessary. I think it will be pretty clear what happened or where to look after the boxes get read out.


While that would doubtless be a time and labor saving choice in some situations, A. Some parts are relatively huge and not easily scanned or photographed in any detail, B. No matter who takes the photo and how knowledgeable they are about the situation, it seems the photo never shows the side or section of the piece you want to look at in enough detail, and C. Often one will notice something unsuspected when viewing an actual piece that might have been overlooked or considered insignificant during the photo/scanning process. Much better to conduct investigations of this nature the old-fashioned way: Hands-on and in meat-space.
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cougar15
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:25 am

TSS wrote:
CWizard wrote:
TSS wrote:
Possibly, but where would he have gone? It's my understanding that cargo planes have the cockpit, then some form of sanitary facilities (from what I've read, due to the small number of people on board a bucket, a curtain, and a roll of toilet paper constitute more than adequate "sanitary facilities", though some planes might have a toilet that is a bit more sophisticated), and from there back it's wall-to-wall cargo on Amazon flights.


Well, I haven't seen every cargo plane flying today, but every A300F, DC/MD-10F, MD-11F, 767F and 777F I've been on had a full head and some had galleys complete with coffee makers.


Fair enough. It's been a long time since I read about the "Bucket & Curtain" facilities on some cargo aircraft, so those might have been on early DC-8, 707, or 727 conversions, or perhaps on even older propellor-driven aircraft. Blowing a little more dust off those memory files, it seems that the original description of such minimalist facilities was presented in the context of "You new cargo pilots don't know how easy you've got it, when I started flying cargo ______ (DC-8s? DC-6s? DC-3s?!?), all we had was a bucket, a curtain, and a roll of toilet paper and we felt privileged to have the curtain and the roll of toilet paper!", or words to that effect. Either way, it was quite a vivid image painted with words and my apologies for not remembering what aircraft made up the background of that image.


Regular Galley is still affixed (includes an oven, coffee maker etc) , opposite the bulkhead leading to the cargo area , just in front of the L1 & R1 doors. A propper Lav is also still there, as are additional fold down, cabin crew style seats for additional supernumerary´s. Besides that, not every crew is totally hospitable or want visitors on the FD for the entire flight. I have had plenty of jumpseat rides on freighters where I spent most of my time outside of the cockpit on the additional seats between L1 and R1, charged with keeping the coffee flowing....
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portcolumbus
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:48 am

FredrikHAD wrote:
An approach to 08 seems to take 15 minutes from that point but with winds at 310 and 11 knots, I assume they’d be using rwy 33.



IAH was west flow the entire time.
 
glideslope900
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:25 am

xjcsa wrote:
A possible scenario:

As noted by others, there was an FAA Airworthiness Directive, which read, in part, as follows:

On August 18, 2000, we issued AD 2000-17-05, Amendment 39-11879 (65 FR 51754, August 25, 2000), for certain The Boeing Company Model 767-200, -300, and -300F series airplanes. That AD requires a one-time functional check of the shear rivets in all six PCA bellcrank assemblies to determine the condition of the shear rivets; and replacement or rework of the bellcrank assemblies, if necessary. That AD resulted from reports that elevator bellcrank assemblies with failed shear rivets had been found on three Model 767 airplanes. We issued that AD to detect and correct any failed or partially yielded shear rivets of the elevator PCA bellcrank assemblies. Failure of two bellcrank assemblies on one side can result in that single elevator surface moving to a hardover position, independent of pilot command, resulting in a significant pitch upset recoverable by the crew. Failure of three bellcrank assemblies on one side could result in loss of control of the airplane.


Others have noted the possibility that the failure was related to the problems identified in this series of Airworthiness Directives; perhaps the prescribed fix was in some way inadequate.

So, a possible scenario that seems to fit the events:

1. Atlas 3591 departs Miami bound for Houston. Unbeknownst to the crew, one bellcrank assembly in the tail has previously failed and two others are in poor condition.

2. Captain's voice to Houston ATC: "Good afternoon, Giant 3591, 17.8, descending via the LINKK and we have Sierra." The FO is flying the airplane on this leg; the Captain is handling radios. So far, all is well.

3. At 18:37:31Z, at approximately 7,000' while flying the approach pattern for IAH, a second bellcrank assembly fails, resulting in a significant pitch upset. The captain takes control; the FO switches to radio duties. The captain pulls back hard on the yoke and recovers control, actually gaining altitude briefly before returning to the planned level. The failed assembly puts additional pressure on the other two assemblies, which are now nearing failure points.

4. The captain continues flying the airplane and working to diagnose the problem; he executes a left turn to verify that he has sufficient control. Control is satisfactory, but the crew is a bit concerned.

5. The FO, now handling radio duties, begins a conversation with ATC regarding diverting around some thunderstorms.

6. At 18:38:36, about one minute after the first bellcrank assembly failed, with the aircraft at about 6,000 feet in altitude, a third assembly begins to fail; the captain again fights to maintain correct pitch, again briefly gaining some altitude before returning to the pattern altitude. This occurs during the FO's last transmission, which sounds a bit rushed and possibly stressed.

7. At 18:38:46, the third bellcrank assemfly fails completely, leading to a sharp pitch-down attitude and resulting in complete loss of vertical control of the airplane. The crew, focusing entirely on saving the airplane, makes no additional radio calls.

8. The airplane impacts the ground at high speed.

//

Obviously this is entirely speculative, and even if some of it turns out to be right, most of it will probably turn out to be wrong. Just an effort to come up with *a* scenario that could fit the facts.


If they had a pitch control issue, they wouldn’t just make a turn without saying anything to ATC...and at that point weather would be the least of their concerns. And does he really sound stressed? The radio calls sounded rather normal to me. They could have been pre occupied with the weather deviations.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:32 am

Looking at the all the elevator bell crank issues - I'm quite miffed these things weren't grounded 18 years ago and these 1982 certified crap parts weren't all redesigned with something from the current technological era (1988+). Metallurgy changed considerably in those 6 years.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:47 am

1989worstyear wrote:
Looking at the all the elevator bell crank issues - I'm quite miffed these things weren't grounded 18 years ago and these 1982 certified crap parts weren't all redesigned with something from the current technological era (1988+). Metallurgy changed considerably in those 6 years.


Yeah the 767 has such an awful safety record. A roll of the dice anytime you get on one. :roll:
 
xjcsa
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:46 am

glideslope900 wrote:
xjcsa wrote:
A possible scenario:

As noted by others, there was an FAA Airworthiness Directive, which read, in part, as follows:

On August 18, 2000, we issued AD 2000-17-05, Amendment 39-11879 (65 FR 51754, August 25, 2000), for certain The Boeing Company Model 767-200, -300, and -300F series airplanes. That AD requires a one-time functional check of the shear rivets in all six PCA bellcrank assemblies to determine the condition of the shear rivets; and replacement or rework of the bellcrank assemblies, if necessary. That AD resulted from reports that elevator bellcrank assemblies with failed shear rivets had been found on three Model 767 airplanes. We issued that AD to detect and correct any failed or partially yielded shear rivets of the elevator PCA bellcrank assemblies. Failure of two bellcrank assemblies on one side can result in that single elevator surface moving to a hardover position, independent of pilot command, resulting in a significant pitch upset recoverable by the crew. Failure of three bellcrank assemblies on one side could result in loss of control of the airplane.


Others have noted the possibility that the failure was related to the problems identified in this series of Airworthiness Directives; perhaps the prescribed fix was in some way inadequate.

So, a possible scenario that seems to fit the events:

1. Atlas 3591 departs Miami bound for Houston. Unbeknownst to the crew, one bellcrank assembly in the tail has previously failed and two others are in poor condition.

2. Captain's voice to Houston ATC: "Good afternoon, Giant 3591, 17.8, descending via the LINKK and we have Sierra." The FO is flying the airplane on this leg; the Captain is handling radios. So far, all is well.

3. At 18:37:31Z, at approximately 7,000' while flying the approach pattern for IAH, a second bellcrank assembly fails, resulting in a significant pitch upset. The captain takes control; the FO switches to radio duties. The captain pulls back hard on the yoke and recovers control, actually gaining altitude briefly before returning to the planned level. The failed assembly puts additional pressure on the other two assemblies, which are now nearing failure points.

4. The captain continues flying the airplane and working to diagnose the problem; he executes a left turn to verify that he has sufficient control. Control is satisfactory, but the crew is a bit concerned.

5. The FO, now handling radio duties, begins a conversation with ATC regarding diverting around some thunderstorms.

6. At 18:38:36, about one minute after the first bellcrank assembly failed, with the aircraft at about 6,000 feet in altitude, a third assembly begins to fail; the captain again fights to maintain correct pitch, again briefly gaining some altitude before returning to the pattern altitude. This occurs during the FO's last transmission, which sounds a bit rushed and possibly stressed.

7. At 18:38:46, the third bellcrank assemfly fails completely, leading to a sharp pitch-down attitude and resulting in complete loss of vertical control of the airplane. The crew, focusing entirely on saving the airplane, makes no additional radio calls.

8. The airplane impacts the ground at high speed.

//

Obviously this is entirely speculative, and even if some of it turns out to be right, most of it will probably turn out to be wrong. Just an effort to come up with *a* scenario that could fit the facts.


If they had a pitch control issue, they wouldn’t just make a turn without saying anything to ATC...and at that point weather would be the least of their concerns. And does he really sound stressed? The radio calls sounded rather normal to me. They could have been pre occupied with the weather deviations.


Yeah the left turn is probably the weakest "explanation" in my scenario. I do think he sounds stressed or rushed compared with the rest of the ATC dialogue, and it seems likely that *something* unusual was going on by then just because the FO was on the radio instead of the captain, but I'm not enough of an expert to be confident in my opinion of either of those things, since I'm not a pilot or controller (I was a lowly airport CSA with Mesaba for several years a long time ago).

Like I said, I'm probably wrong about all of it, and almost certainly wrong about some of it. Just a first shot at something approaching a more specific series of events.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:49 am

TSS wrote:
Often one will notice something unsuspected when viewing an actual piece that might have been overlooked or considered insignificant during the photo/scanning process. Much better to conduct investigations of this nature the old-fashioned way: Hands-on and in meat-space.


I get the impression people think its about solving a jigsaw puzzle, when actually it's about investigating the physical parts. Details like microscopic fractography, corrosion analysis, chemical testing of residues etc. are what reveal the causes of failure. Investigators have hardly ever reconstructed large scale aircraft sections, and when they did it was to try and locate the source of explosive decompression, where the effects cover a very large area of the fuselage.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
zanl188
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:12 pm

CVR data module appears fairly intact....

https://youtu.be/fU9D-1Ij40Q
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airkas1
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:51 pm

zanl188 wrote:
CVR data module appears fairly intact....

https://youtu.be/fU9D-1Ij40Q

In addition, some photos here: https://www.flickr.com/photos/ntsb/albu ... 995919483/
 
JAAlbert
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:53 pm

How long will it take for investigators to download the CVR data and share its contents publicly?
 
ubeema
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:59 pm

Why they keep the CVR unit submerged in water during transport?
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:04 pm

Because that's how they found it, and it must be dehydrated according to an exact procedure.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:59 pm

airkas1 wrote:
zanl188 wrote:
CVR data module appears fairly intact....

https://youtu.be/fU9D-1Ij40Q

In addition, some photos here: https://www.flickr.com/photos/ntsb/albu ... 995919483/


Appears to be in good condition given the circumstances. Hopefully we can get some answers soon, even if just preliminary.
Lighten up while you still can, don't even try to understand, just find a place to make your stand and take it easy
 
cat3appr50
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:14 pm

May God comfort the loved ones of the three flight crew who lost their lives in this tragic accident.

From the available data, GTI3591 diverted to the North after GILLL waypoint for weather (obviously radar signature). It returned from the diversion toward its original flight path approach direction (being maintained prior to GILLL) toward around 0.5 NM South of GRAYN waypoint. Sadly it suddenly lost control and went into a very rapid descent rate around 3 NM ESE of GRAYN waypoint. Looking at the landing approach time METARS, IMO there’s nothing predicting wind shear, microburst likelihood, etc. Maybe ATC warned of same, but there’s no ATC communications publicly available to-date that indicated that. THE CVR will obviously confirm.

UAL1788 was following GTI3591 approx. 7-8 minutes in-trail, and didn’t divert North as GTI3591 did, but maintained the same approach path direction from GILLL waypoint to around 0.5 nm South of GRAYN waypoint. Looking at the available approach data for UAL1788 IMO there doesn’t seem to be anything in that approach data from GILLL to GRAYN indicating a WS encounter, or approach speed, direction, descent rate, etc. that seems abnormal.

This is just my opinion, but don’t see a significant weather event triggering this very sad accident. Also see insignificant plausibility of fuel exhaustion causing the sudden dive, as the B767 300 does (of course) have a glide capability.

Thanks to the NTSB and LE, etc. in finding the CVR, and am confident in these exceptional professionals finding the DFDR soon as well.
 
B757Forever
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 12:12 am

1989worstyear wrote:
Looking at the all the elevator bell crank issues - I'm quite miffed these things weren't grounded 18 years ago and these 1982 certified crap parts weren't all redesigned with something from the current technological era (1988+). Metallurgy changed considerably in those 6 years.


I work in maintenance on a large fleet of 767 aircraft. Many of them have well in excess of 100,000 flight hours on them. We've not found an issue with the elevator shear rivets on any of them. The text in A.D.'s always spell out the most extreme possible outcome which in reality is very rarely the case. If the situation was as dire as some would believe, they would have been grounded long ago.
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smokeybandit
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 12:38 am

ubeema wrote:
Why they keep the CVR unit submerged in water during transport?


To prevent it from drying out and being damaged (corroded, etc) as a result. Safer to dry it out in the confines of a lab than in open air.
 
ubeema
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 12:46 am

smokeybandit wrote:
ubeema wrote:
Why they keep the CVR unit submerged in water during transport?


To prevent it from drying out and being damaged (corroded, etc) as a result. Safer to dry it out in the confines of a lab than in open air.

WPvsMW wrote:
Because that's how they found it, and it must be dehydrated according to an exact procedure.

I learned something today. Thank you
 
klm617
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 1:07 am

xjcsa wrote:
glideslope900 wrote:
xjcsa wrote:
A possible scenario:

As noted by others, there was an FAA Airworthiness Directive, which read, in part, as follows:



Others have noted the possibility that the failure was related to the problems identified in this series of Airworthiness Directives; perhaps the prescribed fix was in some way inadequate.

So, a possible scenario that seems to fit the events:

1. Atlas 3591 departs Miami bound for Houston. Unbeknownst to the crew, one bellcrank assembly in the tail has previously failed and two others are in poor condition.

2. Captain's voice to Houston ATC: "Good afternoon, Giant 3591, 17.8, descending via the LINKK and we have Sierra." The FO is flying the airplane on this leg; the Captain is handling radios. So far, all is well.

3. At 18:37:31Z, at approximately 7,000' while flying the approach pattern for IAH, a second bellcrank assembly fails, resulting in a significant pitch upset. The captain takes control; the FO switches to radio duties. The captain pulls back hard on the yoke and recovers control, actually gaining altitude briefly before returning to the planned level. The failed assembly puts additional pressure on the other two assemblies, which are now nearing failure points.

4. The captain continues flying the airplane and working to diagnose the problem; he executes a left turn to verify that he has sufficient control. Control is satisfactory, but the crew is a bit concerned.

5. The FO, now handling radio duties, begins a conversation with ATC regarding diverting around some thunderstorms.

6. At 18:38:36, about one minute after the first bellcrank assembly failed, with the aircraft at about 6,000 feet in altitude, a third assembly begins to fail; the captain again fights to maintain correct pitch, again briefly gaining some altitude before returning to the pattern altitude. This occurs during the FO's last transmission, which sounds a bit rushed and possibly stressed.

7. At 18:38:46, the third bellcrank assemfly fails completely, leading to a sharp pitch-down attitude and resulting in complete loss of vertical control of the airplane. The crew, focusing entirely on saving the airplane, makes no additional radio calls.

8. The airplane impacts the ground at high speed.

//

Obviously this is entirely speculative, and even if some of it turns out to be right, most of it will probably turn out to be wrong. Just an effort to come up with *a* scenario that could fit the facts.


If they had a pitch control issue, they wouldn’t just make a turn without saying anything to ATC...and at that point weather would be the least of their concerns. And does he really sound stressed? The radio calls sounded rather normal to me. They could have been pre occupied with the weather deviations.


Yeah the left turn is probably the weakest "explanation" in my scenario. I do think he sounds stressed or rushed compared with the rest of the ATC dialogue, and it seems likely that *something* unusual was going on by then just because the FO was on the radio instead of the captain, but I'm not enough of an expert to be confident in my opinion of either of those things, since I'm not a pilot or controller (I was a lowly airport CSA with Mesaba for several years a long time ago).

Like I said, I'm probably wrong about all of it, and almost certainly wrong about some of it. Just a first shot at something approaching a more specific series of events.


The FO was doing all the communication on their departure from MIA also. So I don't see the significance of him being the last person to communicate with ATC.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
glideslope900
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 1:22 am

klm617 wrote:
xjcsa wrote:
glideslope900 wrote:

If they had a pitch control issue, they wouldn’t just make a turn without saying anything to ATC...and at that point weather would be the least of their concerns. And does he really sound stressed? The radio calls sounded rather normal to me. They could have been pre occupied with the weather deviations.


Yeah the left turn is probably the weakest "explanation" in my scenario. I do think he sounds stressed or rushed compared with the rest of the ATC dialogue, and it seems likely that *something* unusual was going on by then just because the FO was on the radio instead of the captain, but I'm not enough of an expert to be confident in my opinion of either of those things, since I'm not a pilot or controller (I was a lowly airport CSA with Mesaba for several years a long time ago).

Like I said, I'm probably wrong about all of it, and almost certainly wrong about some of it. Just a first shot at something approaching a more specific series of events.


The FO was doing all the communication on their departure from MIA also. So I don't see the significance of him being the last person to communicate with ATC.


The FO was doing the communication on the ground as is standard procedure in the US. Once airborne the Captain took over the radio. This implied it was the FO’s leg (the FO was actually flying)

The captain checked in with approach and all sounded normal...then it was the FO back on the comms.

This means either

A. The Captain took control of the airplane for some reason and gave the radios to the FO

B. The Captain was running the QRH dealing with an issue while the FO was flying and talking on radio

C. The Captain left the flight deck.
 
OB1504
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 1:30 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
Looking at the all the elevator bell crank issues - I'm quite miffed these things weren't grounded 18 years ago and these 1982 certified crap parts weren't all redesigned with something from the current technological era (1988+). Metallurgy changed considerably in those 6 years.


Yeah the 767 has such an awful safety record. A roll of the dice anytime you get on one. :roll:


B757Forever wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
Looking at the all the elevator bell crank issues - I'm quite miffed these things weren't grounded 18 years ago and these 1982 certified crap parts weren't all redesigned with something from the current technological era (1988+). Metallurgy changed considerably in those 6 years.


I work in maintenance on a large fleet of 767 aircraft. Many of them have well in excess of 100,000 flight hours on them. We've not found an issue with the elevator shear rivets on any of them. The text in A.D.'s always spell out the most extreme possible outcome which in reality is very rarely the case. If the situation was as dire as some would believe, they would have been grounded long ago.


The user you’re replying to has some weird obsession with 1988 as an arbitrary cutoff point between modernity and the Stone Age. Just ignore him.
 
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litz
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 2:10 am

ubeema wrote:
Why they keep the CVR unit submerged in water during transport?


As noted in the posts above, it's to keep it hydrated during transport ... in addition, in the photos (and youtube video) in the NTSB lab, the first thing they do is transfer it from the transport cooler (filled with the same water as at the accident site) to a new tub filled with fresh water.

They'll do this transfer several times, to gradually de-salinate the CVR module, as the crash site was in salt water. Once it's desalinated, and then dried out, they'll start the process of disassembly, then extract the contents.

Anyone able to recognize what kind of CVR that is from the memory module? e.g., is this digital storage or analog/tape?
 
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litz
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 2:11 am

zanl188 wrote:
CVR data module appears fairly intact....

https://youtu.be/fU9D-1Ij40Q


On some recorders, it's called a Crash Survivable Memory Unit ... I'd say it did its job admirably.
 
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litz
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 2:15 am

TSS wrote:
it seems like the best way to keep all the found parts organized would be to lay them out in their original location within the outline of a 767 on the floor of a warehouse even if reconstructing the aircraft in 3D on scaffolding as was done with TWA 800 proves unnecessary. Also, if the data from both the CVR and the FDR seem to agree on a specific cause such as structural or control surface failure, it would be much easier for investigators to literally walk to the area of the failure on the aircraft and start looking for clues as to the cause there rather than having to sift through crates, boxes, and containers to find the pieces they want.


This is exactly what they do ... it's a 2D recovery/layout at first, then if they need to go into 3D, they have the parts at hand, from the 2D layout.

You can actually see this process in great detail in the NASA documentation of the Columbia investigation, as well as TWA800.

For that matter, last Sunday's episode of Air Disasters, which covered MH17, they did the same thing as well, with a floor level layout, before moving into a 3D wireframe of the cockpit area + forward fuselage.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 2:29 am

ubeema wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
ubeema wrote:
Why they keep the CVR unit submerged in water during transport?


To prevent it from drying out and being damaged (corroded, etc) as a result. Safer to dry it out in the confines of a lab than in open air.

WPvsMW wrote:
Because that's how they found it, and it must be dehydrated according to an exact procedure.

I learned something today. Thank you


Also, a series of solvents is used depending upon the aqueous/colloidal environment in which it was found. For instance, Trinity Bay is brackish, and the CVR will have been immersed in brackish water. The transport bath will be at a selected salinity and pH. In the lab, the bath is optimized (e.g., any salt, a corrosive, flushed out) and the CVR dehydrated under vacuum (lowered H20 vapor pressure), not by heating.
Last edited by WPvsMW on Sun Mar 03, 2019 2:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
jtamu97
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 2:30 am

Local news reporting searchers have located components that work in conjunction with the FDR but have yet to locate the actual box. Searchers hope with these findings they are very close to finding the FDR.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/local ... 24bae56de9
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CO953
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 2:40 am

I have a question:

Are there any good viewing points of the wing and/or empennage from the windows in these Atlas 767s, when cargo is loaded Amazon-style? Still wondering if maybe someone was sent back to check something out. Possibly a noise, sort of like when the jackscrew on AS 261 was banging around?

I have been so busy that I haven't sat down and gone back through the thread again, but I wonder how much time elapsed between the last known "normal" segment of flight and the dive? The sudden rise is so suspicious. Would there have been time/necessity to send someone back to look out a window... WITHOUT transmitting a pan pan pan or other... maybe a situation arose where the crew was fighting something sudden that gave them time to aviate - and then attempt to investigate in a hurry (to the degree of sending someone out of the cockpit) - but still not communicate.

I'm boiling down my thinking to, at this moment, in this order:

1. Airframe failure
2. Birds
3. A combination of weather and the last two
4. CFT

I hope answers will come soon for the families, and out of sympathy I can't help but worry away at what happened, even though I already know we won't know anything until the recorders are read.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:12 am

There has been some question about how extensive the recording by the DFDR would be on the accident aircraft.

The digital CVR in the NTSB photos is an Allied-Signal (later acquired by Honeywell) model that was probably original to the aircraft. (The NTSB hasn't said that, but the Allied-Signal ones are easy to recognize. The current Honeywell CVRs look a little different.)

Not a certainty, but this would likely mean that the DFDR (SSFDR) is also an Allied-Signal model, and probably of similar vintage. Those recorded over 600 parameters, if my estimates are correct. That version of recorder is modern enough that I can't imagine that anybody would bother to replace/upgrade it at the time of cargo conversion.

These would be essentially the same model recorders that were present aboard Flight 93, for example.
 
klm617
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:51 am

How likely is it that the Mesa pilot was at the controls or given access to them by the crew of 3591 and got the plane into an upset due to his inexperience on a 767 and the crew could not recover that upset.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 4:00 am

Re: FDRs and CVRs and P2F conversions, IIRC, assuming it passes functional and mechanical tests, the only time an FDR or CVR is swapped out during conversion (or during a periodic check) is when there is an AD on the FDR or CVR. Whether AD or failure, the unit is replaced (either refurb or new) with a digital unit and a pulled digital unit sent to the OEM for refurb. I think a pulled analog unit is discarded.

The relevant Reg, https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/14/91.609, contains threshold dates introducing requirements for digital FDRs and CVRs, and requirements for progressively smaller capacity a/c, but I don't there an operator is under any obligation to replace a functioning analog unit with a digital unit.

At least, that's my understanding...
 
wjcandee
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 4:04 am

klm617 wrote:
How likely is it that the Mesa pilot was at the controls or given access to them by the crew of 3591 and got the plane into an upset due to his inexperience on a 767 and the crew could not recover that upset.


Before I speculated about something this unlikely, I would wait the 5 seconds necessary for the NTSB to decode the CVR and give us the big picture it reveals.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 4:05 am

klm617 wrote:
How likely is it that the Mesa pilot was at the controls or given access to them by the crew of 3591 and got the plane into an upset due to his inexperience on a 767 and the crew could not recover that upset.


Possible, sure, but extremely unlikely, near zero.

GF
 
wjcandee
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 4:17 am

glideslope900 wrote:

The FO was doing the communication on the ground as is standard procedure in the US. Once airborne the Captain took over the radio. This implied it was the FO’s leg (the FO was actually flying)

The captain checked in with approach and all sounded normal...then it was the FO back on the comms.

This means either

A. The Captain took control of the airplane for some reason and gave the radios to the FO


"For some reason" could just be the anticipated short approach after vectors around the weather. But given how weird the whole thing is, I'm not going to be shocked if it turns out to be a very-weird accident sequence. Nobody but nobody would have expected what happened to the two seemingly-very-fine-and-responsible pilots who tried to make "Club 41" on an RJ ferry flight and ended up destroying their engines and crashing and killing themselves. The number of opportunities that they had to have the whole thing turn out okay was large, and they just compounded bad decision on top of bad decision, until they ran out of options and crashed short of a runway. They had switched places in the cockpit; almost seemed to be high, although they weren't. But the culture on ferry flights at that airline was a fiasco; the Atlas accident flight was a regularly-scheduled revenue flight.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 4:36 am

klm617 wrote:
How likely is it that the Mesa pilot was at the controls or given access to them by the crew of 3591 and got the plane into an upset due to his inexperience on a 767 and the crew could not recover that upset.


I'd say that's about the least likely scenario.

1) Neother pilot would take the risk of the company finding out.

2) The jumpseating pilot was a competent airline pilot. He would know what can and can't be done with a transport category airliner. It would take some extreme maneuvers to put a 767 in an unrecoverable upset. It's not like the kid who got control of the Aeroflot A310.
 
glideslope900
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 4:48 am

wjcandee wrote:
glideslope900 wrote:

The FO was doing the communication on the ground as is standard procedure in the US. Once airborne the Captain took over the radio. This implied it was the FO’s leg (the FO was actually flying)

The captain checked in with approach and all sounded normal...then it was the FO back on the comms.

This means either

A. The Captain took control of the airplane for some reason and gave the radios to the FO


"For some reason" could just be the anticipated short approach after vectors around the weather. But given how weird the whole thing is, I'm not going to be shocked if it turns out to be a very-weird accident sequence. Nobody but nobody would have expected what happened to the two seemingly-very-fine-and-responsible pilots who tried to make "Club 41" on an RJ ferry flight and ended up destroying their engines and crashing and killing themselves. The number of opportunities that they had to have the whole thing turn out okay was large, and they just compounded bad decision on top of bad decision, until they ran out of options and crashed short of a runway. They had switched places in the cockpit; almost seemed to be high, although they weren't. But the culture on ferry flights at that airline was a fiasco; the Atlas accident flight was a regularly-scheduled revenue flight.



Even the CA taking over for a short approach is odd, as the only time a CA will take the controls usually is when there is a safety issue such as botched landing and crash imminent.

What would be prudent is to look at the experience of the FO on the 767.
 
glideslope900
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 4:53 am

CO953 wrote:
I have a question:

Are there any good viewing points of the wing and/or empennage from the windows in these Atlas 767s, when cargo is loaded Amazon-style? Still wondering if maybe someone was sent back to check something out. Possibly a noise, sort of like when the jackscrew on AS 261 was banging around?

I have been so busy that I haven't sat down and gone back through the thread again, but I wonder how much time elapsed between the last known "normal" segment of flight and the dive? The sudden rise is so suspicious. Would there have been time/necessity to send someone back to look out a window... WITHOUT transmitting a pan pan pan or other... maybe a situation arose where the crew was fighting something sudden that gave them time to aviate - and then attempt to investigate in a hurry (to the degree of sending someone out of the cockpit) - but still not communicate.

I'm boiling down my thinking to, at this moment, in this order:

1. Airframe failure
2. Birds
3. A combination of weather and the last two
4. CFT

I hope answers will come soon for the families, and out of sympathy I can't help but worry away at what happened, even though I already know we won't know anything until the recorders are read.



Birds nor weather brought this airplane down. It was either a flight control failure, stall and unrecoverable upset, or criminal action.
 
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CALTECH
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:02 am

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Those who believe otherwise are consumed by an ideology
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glideslope900
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:17 am

CALTECH wrote:


7000 AGL is enough to recover with proper technique.
 
Scarebus34
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:20 am

I’m willing to bet weather played zero factor in this accident.
 
FlyHossD
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:22 am

CALTECH wrote:


Though I won't speculate on the cause of this accident, there have been other stalls:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_140

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_676
My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
 
glideslope900
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:26 am

FlyHossD wrote:
CALTECH wrote:


Though I won't speculate on the cause of this accident, there have been other stalls:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_140

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_676


These crashes have absolutely no comparison to 3591...

They occurred very close to the ground during a botched go around procedure.

The Atlas was descending normally at 7000ft!
 
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Siren
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:50 am

CALTECH wrote:


This accident has no resemblance to FlyDubai 981 other than the fact that they both went into the ground at a high rate of speed. That's it. That's the only similarity.

The other accident is the Tatarstan 737-500 incident. Both of these are incidents that were caused by a loss of control during a go-around. Both aircraft were climbing rapidly before they lost control and descended suddenly. That is not the case with Atlas 3591. The aircraft leveled out from a descent according to the ADS-B returns and it looks like it nosed over and went into the ground. Why? We don't know yet, and we're speculating. But, to compare this to "737 Go-Around Syndrome" is a bit 'out there'. Things obviously went from normal to sideways very quickly on that flight, and let's hope the CVR has the answers.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:53 am

I don't understand the stall theories. This isn't a flat stall like AF447. Or a botched go-around where the aircraft (due to failed interaction with the automation) pitches up to an unsustainable climb angle. This is an aircraft which, right before impact, was descending, wings level, nose down, at a high descent rate, with forward groundspeed. It accordingly would appear to have airspeed, i.e. airflow over the wings. Which would suggest that absent any other factor, it wouldn't then be in a stall. At 7000 feet, there's plenty of kinetic energy, even in a complete engine failure, to turn into controlled flight.

Admittedly, the position in which it came out of the clouds on that video doesn't mean that it wasn't in some other position while in the clouds. Maybe we are seeing an upset recovery that ran out of room, but it doesn't seem like that, and, of course, it appears from the radar tracks that it was moving in a straight line.

Well, I guess we'll hear some preliminary information soon enough, even if only to narrow the potentials.
Last edited by wjcandee on Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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CALTECH
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:58 am

glideslope900 wrote:
CALTECH wrote:


7000 AGL is enough to recover with proper technique.


Well, Air France 447 couldn't recover from 38,000 or so feet.
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CALTECH
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:01 am

Siren wrote:
CALTECH wrote:


This accident has no resemblance to FlyDubai 981 other than the fact that they both went into the ground at a high rate of speed. That's it. That's the only similarity.

The other accident is the Tatarstan 737-500 incident. Both of these are incidents that were caused by a loss of control during a go-around. Both aircraft were climbing rapidly before they lost control and descended suddenly. That is not the case with Atlas 3591. The aircraft leveled out from a descent according to the ADS-B returns and it looks like it nosed over and went into the ground. Why? We don't know yet, and we're speculating. But, to compare this to "737 Go-Around Syndrome" is a bit 'out there'. Things obviously went from normal to sideways very quickly on that flight, and let's hope the CVR has the answers.


Doesn't matter if the aircraft is in a go around or approach, a stall with the nose dropping is the same. It is not 'out there'.
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Criminals are the deadly cancer on American society
Those who believe otherwise are consumed by an ideology
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wjcandee
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:03 am

CALTECH wrote:

Well, Air France 447 couldn't recover from 38,000 or so feet.


I know you're being snarky, but you realize, of course, that the correct statement is that "AF447 couldn't recover from a bunkie who had the sidestick pulled full-back in manual mode". Given that the captain figured out the problem at the end, if they had had even 10,000 feet they should have been able to recover.
 
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usxguy
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:11 am

klm617 wrote:
How likely is it that the Mesa pilot was at the controls or given access to them by the crew of 3591 and got the plane into an upset due to his inexperience on a 767 and the crew could not recover that upset.


The Mesa jumpseater was a fairly senior captain, with 6 years in the E175. Im pretty sure he was capable enough to handle a 767.

He has just become a father- 6 month old son, and he & his wife was looking at buying a new home in Colombia.

So not sure he also fits the suicidal profile either.
xx
 
zippy
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:14 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
The jumpseating pilot was a competent airline pilot. He would know what can and can't be done with a transport category airliner. It would take some extreme maneuvers to put a 767 in an unrecoverable upset. It's not like the kid who got control of the Aeroflot A310.


What about the Aeromexico crash? The guy flying it had 3,000 hours but wasn't type rated on the E190.
 
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CALTECH
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:16 am

Just putting out thoughts 'out there'.

Another video of a stall and vertical dive. Things happen quickly,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqnE86R7urE
The gun is a precious Symbol of Freedom
Criminals are the deadly cancer on American society
Those who believe otherwise are consumed by an ideology
That is impervious to evidence of tyrants who disarm their citizens
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:33 am

wjcandee wrote:
CALTECH wrote:

Well, Air France 447 couldn't recover from 38,000 or so feet.


I know you're being snarky, but you realize, of course, that the correct statement is that "AF447 couldn't recover from a bunkie who had the sidestick pulled full-back in manual mode". Given that the captain figured out the problem at the end, if they had had even 10,000 feet they should have been able to recover.


And the left seat FO and right seat FO were sometimes simultaneously commanding opposite max pitch up/down, and never once tried to reinstate normal law. For the last several thousand feet, AF447 pitch up was never less that 35 degrees. (The a/c stayed in alternate mode... no stall protection.) I think the 5Y incident and AF447 are basically different. AF447 fell out of the sky, pilot-error stall. Based on the school video, 5Y3591 flew into terrain.
Last edited by WPvsMW on Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:45 am, edited 3 times in total.

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