blacksoviet
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Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:17 am

Japan Airlines has 4 777-300 which seat 500. All Nippon Airways has 7 777-300 which seat 514. What will replace these aircraft? Can the increased efficiency of the 777X engines be utilized on short range flights?
 
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flee
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:20 am

Domestic air travel has changed a fair bit in Japan.

The people no longer depend on just ANA and JAL for their flights. These days, we have a huge Shinkansen network, Japanese and foreign LCCs supplementing trunk route flights. There is more point to point travel.

I am not sure if ANA and JAL need these high capacity aircraft anymore. If they did, they would have ordered them some time ago!
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:26 am

How do eleven aircraft make a market that requires engineering and certification costs? Hint: They Don't! Carriers can use 787-10s or 339s and be happy enough.
 
EmoticonsAllDay
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:37 am

Definitely not happening
 
chrisp390
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:41 am

I heard there was a 777-10X potentially in the cards which would probably be better optimized for that kind of use.
 
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flee
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:55 am

ANA has 20 B777-9s on order but JAL only has 13 of the smaller A350-1000s on order.
 
TC957
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:07 pm

ANA will use the 787-10 and JAL the 350-1000. But these days it's only mainly 3 routes they need such large aircraft on, HND - CTS/FUK/OKA.
 
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flee
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:10 pm

I wonder if ANA will use its 520 seat A380s for some peak season services, perhaps to CTS?
 
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Channex757
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:14 pm

Markets evolve and so do airlines to serve those markets. The huge surge in domestic traffic in Japan in the 70s has fragmented, with Shinkansen taking a lot. Japanese (and Chinese nowadays) rail technology allows fast and frequent city centre to city centre journeys, which when you add up time spent moving to and from airports is competitive with air travel and also much more comfortable.
 
JAAlbert
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 3:58 pm

I don't think anyone has answered the thread author's question. The question was "will" Boeing produce a domestic 777-9 for the Japanese airlines, not whether it should or whether JAL and ANA can make do with smaller aircraft.

Boeing created a very small subset of 777s for the Japanese airlines at their request and I assume would not have done so if it could not make a profit on those planes. Why wouldn't Boeing create another 10-15 domestic 777-9s for JAL and ANA if they requested them and were prepared to pay a fair price?

With that being said, the question becomes - does it make sense for ANA and JAL to seek a domestic 777-9 for its domestic operations? The responses here raise some interesting questions about whether such an aircraft is needed with the alternative transportation modes available in Japan today. My own experience is that a train can be faster over short distances when you factor in traveling to and from the airport and getting through security, and train travel usually does not involve the level of hassle that air travel endures.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:15 pm

It shouldnt be too difficult for Boeing to throw in an overwing plug exit with required slides to help squeeze in a few extra people.
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sassiciai
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:36 pm

I suggest adding "... for the Japanese market" to the thread title. Otherwise, domestic in one country (e g Luxembourg) and another (e g Russia) connote rather different things!

Anyway, the B777-9 is built for ULH and as such is "very heavy", not the sort of machine to use on short trips on anything like a regular basis, IMHO. Anything other than a B777-9 (excluding 747-8 and 380) will offer (slightly) less seats, but weigh >= 30t less, leading to much lower fuel burn and other trip-related expenses
 
OldAeroGuy
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:50 pm

Boeing didn't produce a 777-300ERD for the Japanese market. It's highly doubtful that they'd do a 777-9D.

An airplane designed for long range operation doesn't lend itself to short range flights, particularly with all the surface transport competition.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
TC957
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:55 pm

flee wrote:
I wonder if ANA will use its 520 seat A380s for some peak season services, perhaps to CTS?

No, HND is not A380 compliant.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:19 pm

ANA bought 6 end of line 777-300ERs to replace the 7 domestic 773s.

So no you won't see a domestic 779X anytime soon - not unless the plane is in between long haul flights.

flee wrote:
Domestic air travel has changed a fair bit in Japan.

The people no longer depend on just ANA and JAL for their flights. These days, we have a huge Shinkansen network, Japanese and foreign LCCs supplementing trunk route flights. There is more point to point travel.

I am not sure if ANA and JAL need these high capacity aircraft anymore. If they did, they would have ordered them some time ago!

Shinkansen is really no good use once it's longer than 3 hours - just as everywhere else. Not to mention ANA normally flies 514-seater 773s to FUK (which is a 5hr train ride from Tokyo if you really go Shinkansen), or Sapporo (which is even worse) or Okinawa (forget about Shinkansen for this one).

Now, LCCs certainly do have an impact on ANA/JAL but their presence is limited, especially if you want to go to second-tier cities (and especially between the smaller cities, i.e. not from/to OSA/TYO). ANA and JAL will still be the main choice for a long time.

Michael
 
ikramerica
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:25 pm

Yes, its called 2 797s. The $100M you save on purchase will pay for the extra pilots.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:31 pm

If the 797 can squeeze in 16" seats 8ab, it would be a big seller in Japan. It is finally the right 783
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:33 pm

Wouldn't a 787-10 make a better short range carrier?
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blacksoviet
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 1:15 am

eamondzhang wrote:
ANA bought 6 end of line 777-300ERs to replace the 7 domestic 773s.

So no you won't see a domestic 779X anytime soon - not unless the plane is in between long haul flights.

flee wrote:
Domestic air travel has changed a fair bit in Japan.

The people no longer depend on just ANA and JAL for their flights. These days, we have a huge Shinkansen network, Japanese and foreign LCCs supplementing trunk route flights. There is more point to point travel.

I am not sure if ANA and JAL need these high capacity aircraft anymore. If they did, they would have ordered them some time ago!

Shinkansen is really no good use once it's longer than 3 hours - just as everywhere else. Not to mention ANA normally flies 514-seater 773s to FUK (which is a 5hr train ride from Tokyo if you really go Shinkansen), or Sapporo (which is even worse) or Okinawa (forget about Shinkansen for this one).

Now, LCCs certainly do have an impact on ANA/JAL but their presence is limited, especially if you want to go to second-tier cities (and especially between the smaller cities, i.e. not from/to OSA/TYO). ANA and JAL will still be the main choice for a long time.

Michael

Why did they buy 77Ws? Did Boeing refuse to build them new non-ER models?
 
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hongkongflyer
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 1:30 am

probably a paper de-rate and I am sure airlines in Asia will intentionally abuse them for domestic / intra-Asia short trips
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 1:40 am

blacksoviet wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
ANA bought 6 end of line 777-300ERs to replace the 7 domestic 773s.

So no you won't see a domestic 779X anytime soon - not unless the plane is in between long haul flights.

flee wrote:
Domestic air travel has changed a fair bit in Japan.

The people no longer depend on just ANA and JAL for their flights. These days, we have a huge Shinkansen network, Japanese and foreign LCCs supplementing trunk route flights. There is more point to point travel.

I am not sure if ANA and JAL need these high capacity aircraft anymore. If they did, they would have ordered them some time ago!

Shinkansen is really no good use once it's longer than 3 hours - just as everywhere else. Not to mention ANA normally flies 514-seater 773s to FUK (which is a 5hr train ride from Tokyo if you really go Shinkansen), or Sapporo (which is even worse) or Okinawa (forget about Shinkansen for this one).

Now, LCCs certainly do have an impact on ANA/JAL but their presence is limited, especially if you want to go to second-tier cities (and especially between the smaller cities, i.e. not from/to OSA/TYO). ANA and JAL will still be the main choice for a long time.

Michael

Why did they buy 77Ws? Did Boeing refuse to build them new non-ER models?

Yes. Boeing ended the production of the 77A, 77E, and 773 after the 77W and 77L were fully up to speed. The only ones you have been able to get for some time noe are the 77W, 77L and 77F. Once the 77F is converted to the 77X platform you won’t be able to get any of those any more, either.
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eamondzhang
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:18 am

blacksoviet wrote:
Why did they buy 77Ws? Did Boeing refuse to build them new non-ER models?

Boeing no longer produces 77A/E/3 and especially 77A/3 for a long time. With ANA operating 77W for the foreseeable future it won't be much an issue maintenance wise.

Michael
 
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zeke
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:42 am

TC957 wrote:
No, HND is not A380 compliant.


Thank for letting us know. I will get into the Japanese AIS service straight away and tell them that their published information in the AIP permitting A380 operations is all wrong.


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TTailedTiger
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:52 am

500 seats on a 773? Ouch. I had no idea JAL and ANA were doing such a thing.
 
FloydK
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:11 am

I would dread trying to get my luggage when 500 plus people are looking for their at the same time.
 
ikramerica
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:39 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
500 seats on a 773? Ouch. I had no idea JAL and ANA were doing such a thing.

Its awesome really. Flying in a large twin for a short hop that would be flown by a 737 in the states. Having flown on the 744D ITA-NRT it was a nice experience. It boards rather quickly.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
ikramerica
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:41 am

FloydK wrote:
I would dread trying to get my luggage when 500 plus people are looking for their at the same time.

For the japanese domestic market, many are on business for the day or overnight with a carryon only, and others are connecting so at least into NRT, HND and Kansai, the luggage is transfered.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 4:05 am

The 777X has been highly optimised for long haul.

The 787-10 is the large domestic widebody.

That huge wing of the 777X is all about improving lift to drag. The empty weight has increased significantly so airport fees increase. There might even be a point say below 500nm where an original 777-300ER would have better CASM than a 777-9.

This is why I believe the 777X makes a poor freighter. Freighters take off fully loaded and fly shorter distances. It will most likely carry less payload before hitting MFW due to that empty weight increase. The 777X will burn less fuel on the flight but the fuel burn per ton of payload would be very similar to the original 777F.

It would be very unlikely for a 777X freighter to have better economics than a 747-8F even with engines a generation newer. I do not expect Boeing to invest money producing a domestic 777X or a 777X freighter. Boeing wikl do good deals on the 747-8F instead keeping the line open for another decade.
 
ikramerica
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:13 am

RJMAZ wrote:
The 777X has been highly optimised for long haul.

The 787-10 is the large domestic widebody.

That huge wing of the 777X is all about improving lift to drag. The empty weight has increased significantly so airport fees increase. There might even be a point say below 500nm where an original 777-300ER would have better CASM than a 777-9.

This is why I believe the 777X makes a poor freighter. Freighters take off fully loaded and fly shorter distances. It will most likely carry less payload before hitting MFW due to that empty weight increase. The 777X will burn less fuel on the flight but the fuel burn per ton of payload would be very similar to the original 777F.

It would be very unlikely for a 777X freighter to have better economics than a 747-8F even with engines a generation newer. I do not expect Boeing to invest money producing a domestic 777X or a 777X freighter. Boeing wikl do good deals on the 747-8F instead keeping the line open for another decade.

Considering the 77F hasn’t done that well, I think you are right. Heavy freighters will be 748, medium 76F. What are the economics of coverting the 77E? Is strengthening the floor cost prohibitive?
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:06 am

ikramerica wrote:
Considering the 77F hasn’t done that well, I think you are right. Heavy freighters will be 748, medium 76F. What are the economics of coverting the 77E? Is strengthening the floor cost prohibitive?

I mentioned a couple years ago that a cool business idea would be a floating floor to strengthen the existing floor of 777's. The factory floor is weakest in the middle of the floor where the grestest span is located. The floating floor would spread the centre floor load out to the edges of the floor where the factory floor is strongest. Heavy point loads would be dispersed.

This would be much cheaper than replacing the floor. A 90% solution at 10% of the cost.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:53 am

Boeing has a rather large twin that is better suited to domestic flight than the 777-9. That is the 787-10 with an exit limit of 440 pax. So I assume on single class inter Japan routes that bird would do 400 passengers.

Regarding the freighter, it makes more sense to keep building the 777F than a 777-8F. A heavier more expensive frame with a similar payload, will not be very attractive to airlines. A freighter does not have to do UHL, they rather take a fueling stop. I can rather imagine seeing 777-300ER P2F, even if they are expensive to convert, for airlines that need volume rather than high payload.
 
jfk777
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 12:03 pm

ANA has some 787-9 seating 395 passengers, how much bigger does it need ? The days of the 500 seat Japanese domestic plane are over.
 
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RWA380
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 12:53 pm

flee wrote:
I wonder if ANA will use its 520 seat A380s for some peak season services, perhaps to CTS?


You got there before I did. Perfect market for used A-380’s flying TYO-KIX/NGO/CTS carrying some 500+ passengers. What else will they get used for?
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eicvd
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-

Mon Feb 25, 2019 1:19 pm

It’d be nice if it happened, think of those extra slots you could have if one class 777-9s where flying intra EU or US, never gonna happen though.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:04 pm

For the OP's question - the answer is no.

JL is not even getting 777-9X. They picked A359/A35K as their long-term large WB replacments, and any later 779X order will be replacing 77Ws rather than those 773A.
NH already order a few 78X precisely to be used on routes that required the larger capactiy (i.e. HND-CTS and HND-OKA). They may derate a few of the 779s for domestic runs, but it won't be a "dedicated" domestic version (i.e. perhaps one without the folding wingtip).

zeke wrote:
TC957 wrote:
No, HND is not A380 compliant.


Thank for letting us know. I will get into the Japanese AIS service straight away and tell them that their published information in the AIP permitting A380 operations is all wrong.


:banghead:
:banghead:
:banghead:


HND is A380 compliant, but A380 operation is not permitted right now due to separation issues (i.e. A380 required more separation = a larger time is needed between slots = not going to happen at HND). There's also zero A380-compliant gates at the domestic terminal (IIRC there's 1 or 2 of them over in the International Terminal).

Otherwise EK would have operate A380 (instead of 77W) into HND, as is TG (Operates 2x 744 into HND but 388 into NRT and seasonally into KIX also) or LH (748 instead of 388).

eamondzhang wrote:
Shinkansen is really no good use once it's longer than 3 hours - just as everywhere else. Not to mention ANA normally flies 514-seater 773s to FUK (which is a 5hr train ride from Tokyo if you really go Shinkansen), or Sapporo (which is even worse) or Okinawa (forget about Shinkansen for this one).


NH only operates the 773A on 1 out of 18 daily HND-FUK flight, though. But yes, HND-CTS will still be a plane-dominated market even after Hokkaido Shinkansen is extended up to Sapporo, and of course, good luck riding HSR into OKA.
 
EarlyLateORD
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:48 pm

Rather than start a new thread, I had a question. Would it be feasible to build a 777-9/10 Combi? After riding in the KLM 747-400M, i see the value in the added freight capacity. This could increase the customer base of the 777-9 and create a mid-tier freighter between the 747-8 and 777 cargo.

Adam
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:25 pm

EarlyLateORD wrote:
Rather than start a new thread, I had a question. Would it be feasible to build a 777-9/10 Combi? After riding in the KLM 747-400M, i see the value in the added freight capacity. This could increase the customer base of the 777-9 and create a mid-tier freighter between the 747-8 and 777 cargo.

Adam


Doubtful. New regulations (mainly in fire suppression in cargo department) means combi aircrafts are no longer financially viable for many carriers, and thus, it became either all-pax or all-cargo. Plus 777 can actually carry a ton of cargo as-is in the belly.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:37 pm

EarlyLateORD wrote:
Rather than start a new thread, I had a question. Would it be feasible to build a 777-9/10 Combi? After riding in the KLM 747-400M, i see the value in the added freight capacity. This could increase the customer base of the 777-9 and create a mid-tier freighter between the 747-8 and 777 cargo.

Adam

Given the immense cargo hold of the 777, it practically is a combi workout the significant certification requirements now associated with having passengers and cargo on the same deck.
 
OldAeroGuy
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Re: Will Boeing produce a domestic version of the 777-9?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 4:17 pm

ikramerica wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
The 777X has been highly optimised for long haul.

The 787-10 is the large domestic widebody.

That huge wing of the 777X is all about improving lift to drag. The empty weight has increased significantly so airport fees increase. There might even be a point say below 500nm where an original 777-300ER would have better CASM than a 777-9.

This is why I believe the 777X makes a poor freighter. Freighters take off fully loaded and fly shorter distances. It will most likely carry less payload before hitting MFW due to that empty weight increase. The 777X will burn less fuel on the flight but the fuel burn per ton of payload would be very similar to the original 777F.

It would be very unlikely for a 777X freighter to have better economics than a 747-8F even with engines a generation newer. I do not expect Boeing to invest money producing a domestic 777X or a 777X freighter. Boeing wikl do good deals on the 747-8F instead keeping the line open for another decade.

Considering the 77F hasn’t done that well, I think you are right. Heavy freighters will be 748, medium 76F. What are the economics of coverting the 77E? Is strengthening the floor cost prohibitive?


I think that the statement that the 777F hasn't done that well to be very curious. Let's look at the data for large New Build Freighter orders:

747-200F 73
747-400F 126
747-400ERF 40
747-8F 107

747 Total 346

777F 213

To date, the 777F has:

- Out sold any single model of the 747F

- Sold 2/3 of the 747F model total in 1/3 the time (15 years vs 50 years)

Given these statistics, the 777F as a large new build freighter has been quite successful. Its payload-range capability has been well utilized to speed package delivery times.

With a higher payload capability, more volume for low density packages and better payload-range, a 777-8F will eventually replace the 777F.
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