It's speculation but with Turkey it is based on politics - you even admit why TK isn't getting expanded Indian frequencies. That's really unfortunate because Indian consumers as well as Indian diaspora abraod are hurt by the lack of access from one of the few airlines that actually could create critical mass and a competitive environment on routes from the west to Indian. On the UAE issue I see both sides but the fact remains EK and EY believe they are at a disadvantage vis a vis QR and are unhappy Indian carriers are being allowed to link UAE points with several Indian cities they do not have access too currently...
Agreed with you first statement. So won't argue that. But....
EK has already created that critical mass long before TK did. EK/EY have some of the highest seat allotments to/from India with multiple stations supporting multiple frequencies! EK in fact was at the receiving end of one of the biggest largess from the GoI a few years ago (I believe 2009 running up to 2013 incrementally but will have to verify this). DXB, AUH, SHJ and RAK are in the same country but each city has a different bilateral with India. That works fine and dandy for them when there are only a 2 airlines max from UAE side but the Indian side of the bilateral is split in to AI, 9W, 6E and SG.
Now let's talk about connectivity to the west. (I am using USA as an example EU/OZ/Africa can be researched)
EK existing connections via DXB:
JFK/EWR/BOS/MCO/FLL/DFW/IAH/SFO/ORD/LAX/SEA/IAD - BOM/DEL/AMD/MAA/BLR/CCU/HYD/COK/TRV (most of these if not all are multiple dailies)
EY existing connections via AUH: (keep in mind, they have cut back on US stations due their own financial problems well discussed on ANet)
LAX/JFK/ORD/IAD - AMD/BOM/BLR/MAA/TRV/COK/HYD/CCU/CCJ
QR existing connections via DOH:
BOS/PHL/IAD/ORD/JFK/DFW/IAH/ATL/LAX - BOM/DEL/BLR/MAA/NAG/CCU/COK/TRV/AMD/GOI
AI existing connectivity from (one-stop from many Indian stations)
DEL - JFK/ORD/IAD/SFO - SFO 9 x Weekly
BOM - EWR/JFK
9W/DL/KL/AF/VS via AMS/CDG/LHR:
BOM/DEL/BLR/MAA - Pretty much any US city to which either KL/AF/VS fly
I didn't bother to look into SQ/CX which have substantial presence in India too. So, begs the question, what disadvantage are EK/EY talking about when they connect to the most number of cities in India? And the ME3 have pretty much mirrored networks into India so how does that put QR at a more favorable position v EK/EY?