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planecane
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:06 am

Guillaume787 wrote:
Anyone found this part of the article interesting: "Aerospace industry sources say Boeing is offering airlines three different-sized passenger NMAs with different ranges."

I thought Boeing had previously announced that the NMA would be available in two variations, one with 225 seats and a 5,000 nmi (9,300 km) range and one with 275 seats and a range of 4,500 nmi (8,300 km).

What is this "third" size being offered?

Could be an error in this article or the previous reports were wrong. Boeing hasn't announced anything. Jon ostrower I believe reported the two sizes.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:07 am

Sure, DL might want 50, or 100 or even more NMA to replace a large and aging fleet of smallish capacity but rangy 757/767... but - they want them at their price . Possibly a price Boeing isn't willing to go to.
Say what you will about Boeing (and I too, am tired of waiting on this thing), but they aren't gonna launch this program without the prospect of a solid financial return, no matter how much DL tries to influence things.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:07 am

WayexTDI wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Of course, let's do that, let's just consider the past 9 years and forget about the previous numerous decades. Cause it suits your argument...

I think people put too much thought in so-called loyalty to Boeing or Airbus: any airline "blindly" buying from one manufacturer exclusively just for the sake of loyalty is showing poor business practice.
Some single-fleet airlines have switched, are switching or will switch from Airbus to Boeing, or vice-versa, because the other offered a better deal (although they were loyal so far to one manufacturer).
Remember that publicly traded companies have an obligation to their shareholders; not to Boeing's or Airbus'.


Staying with one manufacturer doesn't mean you're not getting the best deal.

And the day that WN, B6, NK, F9, or G4 switch to another manufacturer is the day the start selling snow cones in hell.

G4 (Allegiant Air) just finished switching from a MD-80 fleet (plus a few 757's) to an all A320 Family fleet;
F9 (Frontier Airlines) switched from an all 737 fleet to an all A320 Family fleet in the early 2000's.
Nothing is impossible if you're getting a better deal in the end.


Used A319's were plentiful for G4 to acquire so it made sense for them to move to an all A320 family. End of the line A320ceo's were also cheap.

At the time F9 needed to replace their 737 fleet they were in a very bad financial state. Airbus was still new to the US market and gave them the financing deal that Boeing wouldn't. Neelman has never liked Boeing so it's no surprise B6 went with Airbus. Same for his other airline Azul. Same with Moxie.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:17 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Staying with one manufacturer doesn't mean you're not getting the best deal.

And the day that WN, B6, NK, F9, or G4 switch to another manufacturer is the day the start selling snow cones in hell.

G4 (Allegiant Air) just finished switching from a MD-80 fleet (plus a few 757's) to an all A320 Family fleet;
F9 (Frontier Airlines) switched from an all 737 fleet to an all A320 Family fleet in the early 2000's.
Nothing is impossible if you're getting a better deal in the end.


Used A319's were plentiful for G4 to acquire so it made sense for them to move to an all A320 family. End of the line A320ceo's were also cheap.

At the time F9 needed to replace their 737 fleet they were in a very bad financial state. Airbus was still new to the US market and gave them the financing deal that Boeing wouldn't. Neelman has never liked Boeing so it's no surprise B6 went with Airbus. Same for his other airline Azul. Same with Moxie.

So, basically, it's the same old stories, right:
- Airbus wins contract because they are dirt cheap/willing to finance cheaply, whereas Boeing wins contract because they have the best planes;
- US airlines should buy Boeing only to support the US economy, but European airlines should buy Boeing because they offer the best planes (and of course, European airlines should be prohibited from having an all-Airbus fleet).
Has it ever occurred to you that airlines buy Boeing or Airbus because that's what fits the best their need (being a combo of acquisition, operating, transition cost)?

As another poster has mentioned: WN WILL have to change fleet at some point. Boeing will replace the 737 with a clean sheet design and WN will have to decide whether to go with the new offering or switch manufacturer (pending WN still exists at the time, which is all I wish for them).

Again, airlines do switch fleets for numerous reasons, pending they live long enough to have to. It's just the story of evolving product: old product is retired and new product introduced, customers switch to the new product or go see the competition.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:23 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Staying with one manufacturer doesn't mean you're not getting the best deal.

And the day that WN, B6, NK, F9, or G4 switch to another manufacturer is the day the start selling snow cones in hell.

G4 (Allegiant Air) just finished switching from a MD-80 fleet (plus a few 757's) to an all A320 Family fleet;
F9 (Frontier Airlines) switched from an all 737 fleet to an all A320 Family fleet in the early 2000's.
Nothing is impossible if you're getting a better deal in the end.


Used A319's were plentiful for G4 to acquire so it made sense for them to move to an all A320 family. End of the line A320ceo's were also cheap.

At the time F9 needed to replace their 737 fleet they were in a very bad financial state. Airbus was still new to the US market and gave them the financing deal that Boeing wouldn't. Neelman has never liked Boeing so it's no surprise B6 went with Airbus. Same for his other airline Azul. Same with Moxie.


To be fair to Neelman, JetBlue wanted to start out with 738s but Boeing gave them the cold shoulder. We see how that went...
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:23 am

WayexTDI wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
G4 (Allegiant Air) just finished switching from a MD-80 fleet (plus a few 757's) to an all A320 Family fleet;
F9 (Frontier Airlines) switched from an all 737 fleet to an all A320 Family fleet in the early 2000's.
Nothing is impossible if you're getting a better deal in the end.


Used A319's were plentiful for G4 to acquire so it made sense for them to move to an all A320 family. End of the line A320ceo's were also cheap.

At the time F9 needed to replace their 737 fleet they were in a very bad financial state. Airbus was still new to the US market and gave them the financing deal that Boeing wouldn't. Neelman has never liked Boeing so it's no surprise B6 went with Airbus. Same for his other airline Azul. Same with Moxie.

So, basically, it's the same old stories, right:
- Airbus wins contract because they are dirt cheap/willing to finance cheaply, whereas Boeing wins contract because they have the best planes;
- US airlines should buy Boeing only to support the US economy, but European airlines should buy Boeing because they offer the best planes (and of course, European airlines should be prohibited from having an all-Airbus fleet).
Has it ever occurred to you that airlines buy Boeing or Airbus because that's what fits the best their need (being a combo of acquisition, operating, transition cost)?

As another poster has mentioned: WN WILL have to change fleet at some point. Boeing will replace the 737 with a clean sheet design and WN will have to decide whether to go with the new offering or switch manufacturer (pending WN still exists at the time, which is all I wish for them).

Again, airlines do switch fleets for numerous reasons, pending they live long enough to have to. It's just the story of evolving product: old product is retired and new product introduced, customers switch to the new product or go see the competition.


I said none of that. Please quote me with those words you put in my mouth. You should look at the deals Airbus made with Pan Am, Eastern, and Braniff. Pretty much a free lease to try and get their foot in the door in the US. That's just what any new business has to do. I said nothing about the quality of the product. But it's well documented that early adopters of Airbus products got very friendly finance terms. No reason to get upset over it.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:32 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Used A319's were plentiful for G4 to acquire so it made sense for them to move to an all A320 family. End of the line A320ceo's were also cheap.

At the time F9 needed to replace their 737 fleet they were in a very bad financial state. Airbus was still new to the US market and gave them the financing deal that Boeing wouldn't. Neelman has never liked Boeing so it's no surprise B6 went with Airbus. Same for his other airline Azul. Same with Moxie.

So, basically, it's the same old stories, right:
- Airbus wins contract because they are dirt cheap/willing to finance cheaply, whereas Boeing wins contract because they have the best planes;
- US airlines should buy Boeing only to support the US economy, but European airlines should buy Boeing because they offer the best planes (and of course, European airlines should be prohibited from having an all-Airbus fleet).
Has it ever occurred to you that airlines buy Boeing or Airbus because that's what fits the best their need (being a combo of acquisition, operating, transition cost)?

As another poster has mentioned: WN WILL have to change fleet at some point. Boeing will replace the 737 with a clean sheet design and WN will have to decide whether to go with the new offering or switch manufacturer (pending WN still exists at the time, which is all I wish for them).

Again, airlines do switch fleets for numerous reasons, pending they live long enough to have to. It's just the story of evolving product: old product is retired and new product introduced, customers switch to the new product or go see the competition.


I said none of that. Please quote me with those words you put in my mouth. You should look at the deals Airbus made with Pan Am, Eastern, and Braniff. Pretty much a free lease to try and get their foot in the door in the US. That's just what any new business has to do. I said nothing about the quality of the product. But it's well documented that early adopters of Airbus products got very friendly finance terms. No reason to get upset over it.

Not getting upset. And it's well documented that Airbus provided free (or almost free) leases to get their foot in the US.

But that whole "loyalty to Boeing" is just utter BS; the airlines will do what's best for them. If it is ordering the NMA, then they will; if it will going for an Airbus offering, then they will.
No need for you to get all upset that DL wants to be the launch customer (which I doubt they'll end up being to be honest) versus United cause United "was the only US airline loyal to Boeing" (which they historically weren't).

And if/when airlines switch from an all A320 fleet to an all 737 fleet (or vice-versa), they have their reasons; and those reasons are economical, not emotional.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:39 am

ikolkyo wrote:
To be fair to Neelman, JetBlue wanted to start out with 738s but Boeing gave them the cold shoulder. We see how that went...


And to be fair to Boeing, B6 wasn't exactly a sure-thing when they launched, either. It's hard to blame them for playing it safe and focusing on selling to established customers like CO, AA, AS, DL, etc.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
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Super80Fan
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:42 am

EA CO AS wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
To be fair to Neelman, JetBlue wanted to start out with 738s but Boeing gave them the cold shoulder. We see how that went...


And to be fair to Boeing, B6 wasn't exactly a sure-thing when they launched, either. It's hard to blame them for playing it safe and focusing on selling to established customers like CO, AA, AS, DL, etc.


To be really fair, Boeing screwed the pooch here. Neeleman had experience with Morris Air, Southwest, and WestJet, all 737 operators. It was Boeing's order to lose, and they did. Airbus happily took them as a customer and the rest is history.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
RIP US Airways
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:13 am

Super80Fan wrote:
To be really fair, Boeing screwed the pooch here. Neeleman had experience with Morris Air, Southwest, and WestJet, all 737 operators. It was Boeing's order to lose, and they did. Airbus happily took them as a customer and the rest is history.


If I were a Boeing stockholder, I'd be pretty unhappy with them making a bet on a startup just because of who the founder was, rather than their business case, market fundamentals, cash on hand, etc.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
flyabr
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:43 am

Boeing: Please build the darn plane! DL: Please order that darn plane so some a-netters will finally shut-up about the bad blood between you two!!! :D
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:07 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Boeing really owes it to United to be the launch customer. They've been the only loyal US airline. United is also very low key and doesn't pull silly PR stunts.


Loyalty and $3.50 will buy a cup of coffee. Being a launch customer comes with a fair amount of risk. Look at what the launch customers for the 787 had to handle.

UA has been an Airbus customer for a few decades now, first with the A320 family and now with the A350 family.

DL has been a Boeing customer for decades, as well.

TTailedTiger wrote:
Those are my thoughts as well. Boeing would have to impose some really harsh cancellation penalties on a Delta order because of the stunts they have pulled.


After the 787 debacle, I don't think Boeing is in a position to be dictating cancellation terms to a launch customer for a clean-sheet new type.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
Cactusjuba
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:12 am

compensateme wrote:
Great PR, but DL described its 321NEO order as replacements for older jets rather than new capacity; undountedly, it’ll teeth into the 757 fleet. Put simply, DL’s fleet is just too old to wait for the NMA — IMO, it’ll take a severe recession for DL not to exercise its 100 NEO options, which would all but extinguish the 757 fleet.

Of course, there’s plenty of room in DL’s fleet for the NMA, but it’ll soon become “fake news” on a.net that DL is clinging onto its 757 fleet until the NMA is available, when in reality the NMA would replace the 738, 320 and 767...


Lets assume your "fake news" scenario, that DL would like to hold out for the 797 as the primary replacement for the 757/767. We hear a lot about 2025 for the launch. I'll also add in common delays and delivery roll out in 2027.

By 2025, of DL's 116 752/3s, only 21 will have hit age 30. By 2027, 38.

By 2025, of the 77 763/4ERs, only 17 will hit age 30. By 2027, 22.

I see 20-40 A321NEO, 15-20 330NEO covering fine until 2025-2027.

What makes you believe based off of DL's history, that they cannot or will not keep the 757s or 767s flying up to 30 years? Especially when the best replacement, in which the CEO vocally expresses a strong need for, is just a few years off?
 
marcelh
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:23 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Used A319's were plentiful for G4 to acquire so it made sense for them to move to an all A320 family. End of the line A320ceo's were also cheap.

At the time F9 needed to replace their 737 fleet they were in a very bad financial state. Airbus was still new to the US market and gave them the financing deal that Boeing wouldn't. Neelman has never liked Boeing so it's no surprise B6 went with Airbus. Same for his other airline Azul. Same with Moxie.

So, basically, it's the same old stories, right:
- Airbus wins contract because they are dirt cheap/willing to finance cheaply, whereas Boeing wins contract because they have the best planes;
- US airlines should buy Boeing only to support the US economy, but European airlines should buy Boeing because they offer the best planes (and of course, European airlines should be prohibited from having an all-Airbus fleet).
Has it ever occurred to you that airlines buy Boeing or Airbus because that's what fits the best their need (being a combo of acquisition, operating, transition cost)?

As another poster has mentioned: WN WILL have to change fleet at some point. Boeing will replace the 737 with a clean sheet design and WN will have to decide whether to go with the new offering or switch manufacturer (pending WN still exists at the time, which is all I wish for them).

Again, airlines do switch fleets for numerous reasons, pending they live long enough to have to. It's just the story of evolving product: old product is retired and new product introduced, customers switch to the new product or go see the competition.


I said none of that. Please quote me with those words you put in my mouth. You should look at the deals Airbus made with Pan Am, Eastern, and Braniff. Pretty much a free lease to try and get their foot in the door in the US. That's just what any new business has to do. I said nothing about the quality of the product. But it's well documented that early adopters of Airbus products got very friendly finance terms. No reason to get upset over it.

Probably just as sweet as the deal Boeing/GE made to HA to “kill” the A338. That’s how it’s goes
 
KMCOFlyer
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:26 am

Cactusjuba wrote:
compensateme wrote:
Great PR, but DL described its 321NEO order as replacements for older jets rather than new capacity; undountedly, it’ll teeth into the 757 fleet. Put simply, DL’s fleet is just too old to wait for the NMA — IMO, it’ll take a severe recession for DL not to exercise its 100 NEO options, which would all but extinguish the 757 fleet.

Of course, there’s plenty of room in DL’s fleet for the NMA, but it’ll soon become “fake news” on a.net that DL is clinging onto its 757 fleet until the NMA is available, when in reality the NMA would replace the 738, 320 and 767...


Lets assume your "fake news" scenario, that DL would like to hold out for the 797 as the primary replacement for the 757/767. We hear a lot about 2025 for the launch. I'll also add in common delays and delivery roll out in 2027.

By 2025, of DL's 116 752/3s, only 21 will have hit age 30. By 2027, 38.

By 2025, of the 77 763/4ERs, only 17 will hit age 30. By 2027, 22.

I see 20-40 A321NEO, 15-20 330NEO covering fine until 2025-2027.

What makes you believe based off of DL's history, that they cannot or will not keep the 757s or 767s flying up to 30 years? Especially when the best replacement, in which the CEO vocally expresses a strong need for, is just a few years off?


DL has some MD-88s that are hitting 31 and they are still in service (although not much longer) and has several A320s around 27-28 with no plans to retire any more yet. DL will get as much life as they can out of the 757s. IIRC, DL had some of the ex-NWA and the old 75Vs stick around until they where 30 so I would assume that DL can get another 10 years out of most of the younger 757s.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:30 am

Delta is an airline that bought the CS-100 a couple years before Airbus got involved. It is also an airline that still has nearly 120 Mad Dogs and 90 717's in its fleet. Something tells me they will be a launch customer and they can fly a model long past anyone else.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:36 am

DocLightning wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Boeing really owes it to United to be the launch customer. They've been the only loyal US airline. United is also very low key and doesn't pull silly PR stunts.


Loyalty and $3.50 will buy a cup of coffee. Being a launch customer comes with a fair amount of risk. Look at what the launch customers for the 787 had to handle.

UA has been an Airbus customer for a few decades now, first with the A320 family and now with the A350 family.

DL has been a Boeing customer for decades, as well.

TTailedTiger wrote:
Those are my thoughts as well. Boeing would have to impose some really harsh cancellation penalties on a Delta order because of the stunts they have pulled.


After the 787 debacle, I don't think Boeing is in a position to be dictating cancellation terms to a launch customer for a clean-sheet new type.


Boeing has never made any disparaging remarks about their customers. Delta's CEO made an asinine statement about the resale value of a 777 being only a few million. He neglected to state that the used 777 they picked up was unairworthy, no engines, and was only being used for parts. If I were a Boeing salesman I'd hand Delta the MSRP price sheet and tell them to give me a call if they want to order anything. What Anderson did was the worst stunt of any airline CEO. He was trying to hurt Boeing.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:42 am

a19901213 wrote:
jscottwomack wrote:
a19901213 wrote:
I can quickly think of 5 airlines that would want to be launch customer.

The demand is surging for a new NMA as we speak.


DL, UA, AA, BA, ? I think I have 4 of your 5.


QF or perhaps NH or JL.

LH....
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:45 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Boeing really owes it to United to be the launch customer. They've been the only loyal US airline. United is also very low key and doesn't pull silly PR stunts.


Loyalty and $3.50 will buy a cup of coffee. Being a launch customer comes with a fair amount of risk. Look at what the launch customers for the 787 had to handle.

UA has been an Airbus customer for a few decades now, first with the A320 family and now with the A350 family.

DL has been a Boeing customer for decades, as well.

TTailedTiger wrote:
Those are my thoughts as well. Boeing would have to impose some really harsh cancellation penalties on a Delta order because of the stunts they have pulled.


After the 787 debacle, I don't think Boeing is in a position to be dictating cancellation terms to a launch customer for a clean-sheet new type.


Boeing has never made any disparaging remarks about their customers. Delta's CEO made an asinine statement about the resale value of a 777 being only a few million. He neglected to state that the used 777 they picked up was unairworthy, no engines, and was only being used for parts. If I were a Boeing salesman I'd hand Delta the MSRP price sheet and tell them to give me a call if they want to order anything. What Anderson did was the worst stunt of any airline CEO. He was trying to hurt Boeing.


He was sending a message to Boeing that they needed to keep their prices in check. For multi-billion dollar orders, I might get a little sassy once in a while as well.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
727200
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:22 am

UA has been an Airbus customer for a few decades now, first with the A320 family and now with the A350 family.


Interesting comment but not quite accurate.

The 350 isn't on property yet, and has been pushed back twice. Until it is, don't assume it will be.

Yes, UAL ordered both the 319 and 320 but it wasn't like they really wanted them. There were a few things that took place behind the scenes that made them take those planes. And they ended up getting screwed in the process.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:15 am

Guillaume787 wrote:
Anyone found this part of the article interesting: "Aerospace industry sources say Boeing is offering airlines three different-sized passenger NMAs with different ranges."

I thought Boeing had previously announced that the NMA would be available in two variations, one with 225 seats and a 5,000 nmi (9,300 km) range and one with 275 seats and a range of 4,500 nmi (8,300 km).

What is this "third" size being offered?

I have always thought Boeing needs to have three fuselage lengths for the 797 with a shared wing and engines. The 797 can then cover a massive spectrum of roles. The percentage difference between the cabins of the shortest and longest models might be greater than any family to date.

The "shrink" will be the shortest fuselage and will target long point to point routes. With a low density 3 class cabin still air range could exceed 5500nm. Hub to hub routes will continue to fragment to hub and spoke and finally spoke to spoke routes will appear.

The "super stretch" will be the longest fuselage length. It will approach 787-8 in cabin area but with half the range. This will be the model that will beat the A321 in econimics for the short and thick routes. Think Melbourne to Sydney or Japan domestic.

You then the have the middle family member. The super stretch might have a cabin length more than 50% longer than the shrink so there is a big gap for a length in the middle.

I expect the short and medium length to launch first. Generally the longer versions need slightly more thrust to overcome the extra fuselage drag. So as the new engines mature the super stretch will appear later like the 787-10
 
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anfromme
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:30 am

To present the core statement "We're in discussions at a very preliminary stage with Boeing and we've expressed our interest to the management team," Bastian said. "The ball really is in Boeing's court. They've heard us." as "Delta wants to be NMA launch customer" is... taking some liberties. Because really, DL's statement is pretty general...
"We've told them what we want and we're waiting for their response."
It's pretty much what DL have been saying for at least a year now.

Don't get me wrong - DL may well end up buying the NMA should it ever get launched, but I wouldn't pop the champagne just yet.

TTailedTiger wrote:
Those are my thoughts as well. Boeing would have to impose some really harsh cancellation penalties on a Delta order because of the stunts they have pulled.

If you apply the same logic, DL shouldn't even be talking to Boeing considering Boeing's actions and statements around DL's CSeries (now: A220) order.
In reality, though, this type of Trump-eque "be loyal or you get sh*t treatment at best" won't get you very far in business.
And as has been pointed out, putting steep cancellation penalties on launch customers' orders is a tough sell after what early 787 customers went through.

WayexTDI wrote:
I think people put too much thought in so-called loyalty to Boeing or Airbus: any airline "blindly" buying from one manufacturer exclusively just for the sake of loyalty is showing poor business practice.
Some single-fleet airlines have switched, are switching or will switch from Airbus to Boeing, or vice-versa, because the other offered a better deal (although they were loyal so far to one manufacturer).
Remember that publicly traded companies have an obligation to their shareholders; not to Boeing's or Airbus'.

Yep. I can only think of a few exceptions here. For instance, all the low-cost carriers. FR, WN, B6, U2. For them, buying large quantities of the same plane type enables them to do extreme streamlining of operations at every level - and is also the only way of getting planes at the price they want. For smaller airlines - such as e.g. EI - a single-supplier strategy can also make sense to reduce the amount of complexity they have to manage with limited resources.
None of which means they wouldn't ever switch, of course.

TTailedTiger wrote:
Staying with one manufacturer doesn't mean you're not getting the best deal.

Usually provided you don't blindly buy from one vendor exclusively, though.
Here's a quote from a former airplane salesman about how he's seen loyalty and gentlemen's agreements work:
“I did say to that executive, isn’t it interesting that [supplier A] always had your best interests at heart [with the exclusive supplier deal]? How come, when you brought us in, they gave you the best and final offer, then when we bid again, they improved their best and final, when we bid again, they improved their best and final furthermore, and when we won the deal, you called them up and they improved it a third time?
“Maybe if you had just called them and never brought us in, you might have been paying more for the airplanes,” [...]
“How any company would ever say ‘I blocked myself from competition because I got a short-term gain on this next deal is beyond me,’"

Source

TTailedTiger wrote:
And the day that WN, B6, NK, F9, or G4 switch to another manufacturer is the day they start selling snow cones in hell.

That's what it feels like, anyway. That's what people said about AA as well before that massive NEO order. It's what people said about U2 before they switched to Airbus. It's what people said about LH before they ordered 747-8 and 777X. F9 actually did switch suppliers once. The list goes on.
Point being: All of those you list are known to have been talking to the respective non-preferred supplier as well.
Indeed, WN threatened to switch to Airbus when the NEO was announced and Boeing was dithering on whether to do a 737 re-engine.
That sort of threat - i.e. market pressure to get the best product, as WN's threat and AA "defection" were factors in launching the 737MAX - only works if you maintain working relations with all vendors.

TTailedTiger wrote:
Used A319's were plentiful for G4 to acquire so it made sense for them to move to an all A320 family. End of the line A320ceo's were also cheap.
At the time F9 needed to replace their 737 fleet they were in a very bad financial state. Airbus was still new to the US market and gave them the financing deal that Boeing wouldn't. Neelman has never liked Boeing so it's no surprise B6 went with Airbus. Same for his other airline Azul. Same with Moxie.

You're disproving your own point and instead agreeing with WayexTDI's point you originally disagreed with, though, aren't you?
Because you're basically saying that under the right circumstances any single-supplier airline may switch.



TTailedTiger wrote:
The A350 was ordered before the merger. The A319 were acquired USED since they got them dirt cheap and could quickly replace 50 seat regional jets. United has hundreds of new 737's on order. United has ordered nothing from Airbus since the merger.

Sorry, but that's simply wrong.
United originally ordered the A350 a mere 2 months before the merger was announced.
The original order was for 25 A359. They reviewed the order twice since then and now have 45 A359 on order.
Which means after the merger they added a net total of 20 A350s to their order (i.e. almost doubled it), making them the fifth-largest A350 customer to date.
That is not "ordering nothing from Airbus since the merger."
I know, I know, many a.netters are still in refusal about UA's commitment to the A350. A cancellation has basically been on the wishlist ever since the order happened, and instead, while getting pushed out a few years, it also only ever got bigger.
If you're wondering what on earth I'm on about:
727200 wrote:
The 350 isn't on property yet, and has been pushed back twice. Until it is, don't assume it will be.
Yes, UAL ordered both the 319 and 320 but it wasn't like they really wanted them.

Because that's just what happens... you end up increasing orders for a plane you don't want, you somehow also end up with almost 200 A319/320 that you didn't want, and you're somehow unable to get rid of more than a single one of them.¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Mortyman
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:51 am

This was back in June 2017:

Boeing '797' doesn't exist yet. One airline already says it wants it first


The chief executive of Norwegian Air Shuttle said in an interview Wednesday that the fast-growing low-cost airline was very interested in Boeing's new twin-aisle jet currently on the drawing board.


"Yes, we definitely want to be first in line," said Bjørn Kjos, Norwegian Air Shuttle CEO in Seattle.


https://money.cnn.com/2017/06/29/news/c ... index.html


so Delta needs to get back in line … ha, ha ;-)
 
ctrabs0114
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:24 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

There is no more PM-CO and no more PM-UA. Just United. Their business practices after the merger of the two companies is all that matters.

Of course, let's do that, let's just consider the past 9 years and forget about the previous numerous decades. Cause it suits your argument...

I think people put too much thought in so-called loyalty to Boeing or Airbus: any airline "blindly" buying from one manufacturer exclusively just for the sake of loyalty is showing poor business practice.
Some single-fleet airlines have switched, are switching or will switch from Airbus to Boeing, or vice-versa, because the other offered a better deal (although they were loyal so far to one manufacturer).
Remember that publicly traded companies have an obligation to their shareholders; not to Boeing's or Airbus'.


Staying with one manufacturer doesn't mean you're not getting the best deal.

And the day that WN, B6, NK, F9, or G4 switch to another manufacturer is the day they start selling snow cones in hell.


Conversely, weren't we saying the same thing about AS (pmVX) mainline and Boeing? Looks like we're getting a good deal on those snow cones in hell...

All joking aside, at least in WN's case, there's no guarantee that after the current B37M/38M orders that the 737 will still exist. I'm in no way implying the end is near for the 737, but there's certainly that case to be made in, oh, 10-15 years.
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW, PHL, MIA, LAX; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), B739 (DL), B712 (DL), B752 (AA), B763 (AA), B77W (AA), B789 (AA)
Next: TBA
 
bigjku
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:28 am

ctrabs0114 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Of course, let's do that, let's just consider the past 9 years and forget about the previous numerous decades. Cause it suits your argument...

I think people put too much thought in so-called loyalty to Boeing or Airbus: any airline "blindly" buying from one manufacturer exclusively just for the sake of loyalty is showing poor business practice.
Some single-fleet airlines have switched, are switching or will switch from Airbus to Boeing, or vice-versa, because the other offered a better deal (although they were loyal so far to one manufacturer).
Remember that publicly traded companies have an obligation to their shareholders; not to Boeing's or Airbus'.


Staying with one manufacturer doesn't mean you're not getting the best deal.

And the day that WN, B6, NK, F9, or G4 switch to another manufacturer is the day they start selling snow cones in hell.


Conversely, weren't we saying the same thing about AS (pmVX) mainline and Boeing? Looks like we're getting a good deal on those snow cones in hell...

All joking aside, at least in WN's case, there's no guarantee that after the current B37M/38M orders that the 737 will still exist. I'm in no way implying the end is near for the 737, but there's certainly that case to be made in, oh, 10-15 years.


Southwest has come up every single time I have had lengthy conversations with a couple people I know inside Boeing regarding NMA. To some degree the US carriers get that if they want a plane (or at least a variant) that is best suited to some of the things they all really want to do they all can and should be on board as launch customers. Otherwise those who pay the money will have the most say.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:28 am

ctrabs0114 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Of course, let's do that, let's just consider the past 9 years and forget about the previous numerous decades. Cause it suits your argument...

I think people put too much thought in so-called loyalty to Boeing or Airbus: any airline "blindly" buying from one manufacturer exclusively just for the sake of loyalty is showing poor business practice.
Some single-fleet airlines have switched, are switching or will switch from Airbus to Boeing, or vice-versa, because the other offered a better deal (although they were loyal so far to one manufacturer).
Remember that publicly traded companies have an obligation to their shareholders; not to Boeing's or Airbus'.


Staying with one manufacturer doesn't mean you're not getting the best deal.

And the day that WN, B6, NK, F9, or G4 switch to another manufacturer is the day they start selling snow cones in hell.


Conversely, weren't we saying the same thing about AS (pmVX) mainline and Boeing? Looks like we're getting a good deal on those snow cones in hell...

All joking aside, at least in WN's case, there's no guarantee that after the current B37M/38M orders that the 737 will still exist. I'm in no way implying the end is near for the 737, but there's certainly that case to be made in, oh, 10-15 years.


Uh Alaska hasn't ordered anything from Airbus. All they did was accept the A321 VX had on order. It was way too close to their delivery after the merger to cancel them. Those A321's also have some terrible lease rates so you can bet they won't stick around when they are up. And the leasing company will have no problem finding another airline to take them. The A320neo order is certainly in jeopardy of being canceled though.
 
ctrabs0114
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:28 am

KMCOFlyer wrote:
Cactusjuba wrote:
compensateme wrote:
Great PR, but DL described its 321NEO order as replacements for older jets rather than new capacity; undountedly, it’ll teeth into the 757 fleet. Put simply, DL’s fleet is just too old to wait for the NMA — IMO, it’ll take a severe recession for DL not to exercise its 100 NEO options, which would all but extinguish the 757 fleet.

Of course, there’s plenty of room in DL’s fleet for the NMA, but it’ll soon become “fake news” on a.net that DL is clinging onto its 757 fleet until the NMA is available, when in reality the NMA would replace the 738, 320 and 767...


Lets assume your "fake news" scenario, that DL would like to hold out for the 797 as the primary replacement for the 757/767. We hear a lot about 2025 for the launch. I'll also add in common delays and delivery roll out in 2027.

By 2025, of DL's 116 752/3s, only 21 will have hit age 30. By 2027, 38.

By 2025, of the 77 763/4ERs, only 17 will hit age 30. By 2027, 22.

I see 20-40 A321NEO, 15-20 330NEO covering fine until 2025-2027.

What makes you believe based off of DL's history, that they cannot or will not keep the 757s or 767s flying up to 30 years? Especially when the best replacement, in which the CEO vocally expresses a strong need for, is just a few years off?


DL has some MD-88s that are hitting 31 and they are still in service (although not much longer) and has several A320s around 27-28 with no plans to retire any more yet. DL will get as much life as they can out of the 757s. IIRC, DL had some of the ex-NWA and the old 75Vs stick around until they where 30 so I would assume that DL can get another 10 years out of most of the younger 757s.


Are you also factoring in the 752 sub-fleet that's part of the NBA's charter contract/lease agreement? Because I'd suspect that particular sub-fleet might linger longer considering they're probably not worked as hard as a 752 running passenger mainline on, say, ATL-MCO or SEA-DTW.
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW, PHL, MIA, LAX; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), B739 (DL), B712 (DL), B752 (AA), B763 (AA), B77W (AA), B789 (AA)
Next: TBA
 
ctrabs0114
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:33 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
ctrabs0114 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Staying with one manufacturer doesn't mean you're not getting the best deal.

And the day that WN, B6, NK, F9, or G4 switch to another manufacturer is the day they start selling snow cones in hell.


Conversely, weren't we saying the same thing about AS (pmVX) mainline and Boeing? Looks like we're getting a good deal on those snow cones in hell...

All joking aside, at least in WN's case, there's no guarantee that after the current B37M/38M orders that the 737 will still exist. I'm in no way implying the end is near for the 737, but there's certainly that case to be made in, oh, 10-15 years.


Uh Alaska hasn't ordered anything from Airbus. All they did was accept the A321 VX had on order. It was way too close to their delivery after the merger to cancel them. Those A321's also have some terrible lease rates so you can bet they won't stick around when they are up. And the leasing company will have no problem finding another airline to take them. The A320neo order is certainly in jeopardy of being canceled though.


Fair point. It's still odd to see the iconic AS livery on an Airbus, but I get what you're saying in that it was a VX order that AS inherited.
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW, PHL, MIA, LAX; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), B739 (DL), B712 (DL), B752 (AA), B763 (AA), B77W (AA), B789 (AA)
Next: TBA
 
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:09 pm

Please keep the thread on topic.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:20 pm

Super80Fan wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
To be fair to Neelman, JetBlue wanted to start out with 738s but Boeing gave them the cold shoulder. We see how that went...


And to be fair to Boeing, B6 wasn't exactly a sure-thing when they launched, either. It's hard to blame them for playing it safe and focusing on selling to established customers like CO, AA, AS, DL, etc.


To be really fair, Boeing screwed the pooch here. Neeleman had experience with Morris Air, Southwest, and WestJet, all 737 operators. It was Boeing's order to lose, and they did. Airbus happily took them as a customer and the rest is history.

To be fair, Boeing at that time (right after the MD merger), inherited the bad practices of McDonnell Douglas and became more bean counting than they were before.
 
LawAndOrder
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:44 pm

Austin787 wrote:
I'm not sure DL is serious about Boeing's proposed NMA. Expressing interest could be a negotiation trick to get a better deal from Airbus, be it for A321LR or A330-800NEO. Or DL may actually want Boeing to launch its NMA, in order to force Airbus to launch a competitor aircraft which DL will then order. Remember DL also expressed interest in the 787, then later cancelled its 787 orders.

I think Boeing should listen to United, who has been very loyal to Boeing. Let Delta order from Airbus - waiting for Airbus to make the first move may actually work to Boeing's advantage because they will know what they are going against.


Lol you sound like it’s personal. The 787 wasn’t priced right and the 737 max 10 wasn’t the right aircraft. Boeing isn’t crazy DL represents the highest demand for the NMA. They have the most 757s and 767s that need replacing. Delta is not interested in the 321 neo LR or XLR or they woulda order when they ordered the neo. Boeing has the opportunity to tip and scale and have their plane as one of the work hordes of the delta fleet.
 
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par13del
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:01 pm

So has anyone done a recent review of the products DL has already ordered and are due for delivery in the next 2 to 5 years?
Based on their current orders, we the A.Net professionals should be able to do our best to see how many NMA a/c DL would likely order, DL has not been sitting around waiting for their 757's and 767's to fall out of the sky, they have already been purchasing replacements, the A321's the A330's etc. some are going to be used as some routes are rationalized. Everyone already knows that the 767 / 757 replacements have been the A32XX, 737-XX, A330 and 787, so its not as if the replacement cycle is yet to start. If DL order is going to be for 20 frames, for this a/c which Boeing may want to sell in bulk, I would look for another carrier whose commitment may be at least 50 frames.
My opinion.
 
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:03 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Uh Alaska hasn't ordered anything from Airbus. All they did was accept the A321 VX had on order. It was way too close to their delivery after the merger to cancel them. Those A321's also have some terrible lease rates so you can bet they won't stick around when they are up.

Alaska are going to decide on whether they'll get rid of the Airbuses once their leases are up this year:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... cr-454025/
...I suppose that implies they'll decide what they're going to do with their inherited A320neo order.
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:24 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
We have had threads about the NMA, but these comments are specifically about Delta potentially ordering 200 NMAs.

Needing to replace 200 757/753/763/764 within the next ten years doesn't imply an order for 200 NMAs. Just like ordering both 739s and 321s, nobody's going to get the whole pie.

Airlines look forward rather than backward.

The need for 200 could come from opening new city pairs that were not viable with 757/753/763/764 economics.

Besides, with suitable load factor NMA will have better economics than 739/A321 as well.
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:48 pm

par13del wrote:
So has anyone done a recent review of the products DL has already ordered and are due for delivery in the next 2 to 5 years?


See the Annual Report. Within it, search for purchase commitment.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:57 pm

Revelation wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
We have had threads about the NMA, but these comments are specifically about Delta potentially ordering 200 NMAs.

Needing to replace 200 757/753/763/764 within the next ten years doesn't imply an order for 200 NMAs. Just like ordering both 739s and 321s, nobody's going to get the whole pie.

Airlines look forward rather than backward.

The need for 200 could come from opening new city pairs that were not viable with 757/753/763/764 economics.

Besides, with suitable load factor NMA will have better economics than 739/A321 as well.


I don't think you grasped my point. No single manufacturer is going to get 100% of DL's orders in such a big segment. A Boeing NMA isn't going to replace all 757/753/763/764 anymore than A220s are going to replace all the 717/319/320s. You can't be unfamiliar with the split-share sentiment -- you expressed the same thing upthread. I don't think DL will get 200 NMAs and 100 competing Airbus, either - they're not planning for that much growth. An order for 75 NMAs (and 75 options) covers needs in the segment(s) out to 2027. IMHO they won't order much farther ahead than that.
 
morrisond
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:14 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Guillaume787 wrote:
Anyone found this part of the article interesting: "Aerospace industry sources say Boeing is offering airlines three different-sized passenger NMAs with different ranges."

I thought Boeing had previously announced that the NMA would be available in two variations, one with 225 seats and a 5,000 nmi (9,300 km) range and one with 275 seats and a range of 4,500 nmi (8,300 km).

What is this "third" size being offered?

I have always thought Boeing needs to have three fuselage lengths for the 797 with a shared wing and engines. The 797 can then cover a massive spectrum of roles. The percentage difference between the cabins of the shortest and longest models might be greater than any family to date.

The "shrink" will be the shortest fuselage and will target long point to point routes. With a low density 3 class cabin still air range could exceed 5500nm. Hub to hub routes will continue to fragment to hub and spoke and finally spoke to spoke routes will appear.

The "super stretch" will be the longest fuselage length. It will approach 787-8 in cabin area but with half the range. This will be the model that will beat the A321 in econimics for the short and thick routes. Think Melbourne to Sydney or Japan domestic.

You then the have the middle family member. The super stretch might have a cabin length more than 50% longer than the shrink so there is a big gap for a length in the middle.

I expect the short and medium length to launch first. Generally the longer versions need slightly more thrust to overcome the extra fuselage drag. So as the new engines mature the super stretch will appear later like the 787-10


I don't think the NMA-L will be the size of 787-8 - that is getting way too big. If it is 7W that would be a very long airplane.

NMA- S About 10% bigger than A321 - 5,500NM range
NMA-M About 20-25% bigger than A321 - Call it 762 Sized - 5,000 NM range
NMA-L About the size of 763 - which I think is about 180m2 floor area vs 788 at 230m2 - range still about 5,000nm - with MTOW increase and why the need for 50K engines.
 
evank516
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:36 pm

Fargo wrote:
I hope they are. DL has been almost exclusively buying Airbus since the NW merger and it would be nice to see a DL Boeing order.

Not that I have a problem with DL buying Airbus (the 321neo over the 737 MAX 10 was the right move IMO), but it is disappointing when DL won't order the planes like the 787, even though they arguably need it more than UA/AA do.


Except their order for the 739ER was, and still is pretty large so even though they may have ordered more Airbus types I wouldn't really say the were almost exclusive to Airbus when acquiring additional aircraft. It would have been much different had Airbus not taken a majority stake the C Series program too.
 
airzona11
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 3:30 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
Super80Fan wrote:
To be really fair, Boeing screwed the pooch here. Neeleman had experience with Morris Air, Southwest, and WestJet, all 737 operators. It was Boeing's order to lose, and they did. Airbus happily took them as a customer and the rest is history.


If I were a Boeing stockholder, I'd be pretty unhappy with them making a bet on a startup just because of who the founder was, rather than their business case, market fundamentals, cash on hand, etc.


This is what it comes back to. Boeing has done well for their shareholders, employees, and customers. There is no reason to suggest the NMA will be any different. The 767 operators AA UA DL JL NH AC, among others all have a need for something that is not offered on the market today. Yes, they can piece a solution together with 737/A320/787/A330NEO but there is a need and just for replacements that is hundreds of planes from the above listed airlines.
 
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 3:59 pm

I doubt that Alaska or WN will be launch orders, but I have no doubts that both airlines are heavily involved in 797 specifications. Ryan likewise. And still suspect that Boeing is as concerned as to how efficient short trips can be so as to compete with the 321. If there are three models the larger ones will be more intermediate range.
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:13 pm

is it possible that DL would order 797s in order to set the configs in stone so that UA AA WN would be forced to settle? Or if WN sez 'I'll buy 350 frames, and you can close down the 737 line for good--but we want 175 797-7.5 and 175 797-8.5', would Boeing plump for that?
 
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:16 pm

BN727227Ultra wrote:
is it possible that DL would order 797s in order to set the configs in stone so that UA AA WN would be forced to settle? Or if WN sez 'I'll buy 350 frames, and you can close down the 737 line for good--but we want 175 797-7.5 and 175 797-8.5', would Boeing plump for that?

Boeing won’t let one customer dictate the entire configuration, they will listen to many to give it as much mass appeal as possible. Everyone will have to settle a bit. In any event I suspect DL’s desired specifications would be similar to AA’s and UA’s.
 
bigjku
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:37 pm

Polot wrote:
BN727227Ultra wrote:
is it possible that DL would order 797s in order to set the configs in stone so that UA AA WN would be forced to settle? Or if WN sez 'I'll buy 350 frames, and you can close down the 737 line for good--but we want 175 797-7.5 and 175 797-8.5', would Boeing plump for that?

Boeing won’t let one customer dictate the entire configuration, they will listen to many to give it as much mass appeal as possible. Everyone will have to settle a bit. In any event I suspect DL’s desired specifications would be similar to AA’s and UA’s.


The US airlines are all going to have similar desires. As would/will EU carriers and even the gulf carriers that might use it to open up African or Indian secondary cities. The outlier will be some, but not all, of the Asian airlines who will want more cargo capacity. But right now their only options are an A330 or 787-10 really so if you want low CASM and high cargo regionally that’s what you order.

Can airbus wedge something into the space between the 797 and 787-10? I don’t really see it. If you set out to make your case on a cargo basis you won’t match 797 CASM and while cargo makes money certainly you first have to fill the plane with passengers and if your cost are higher on a more traditional A360 (say a shrink A330neo) than the 797 you will face a ton of fare pressure as I think LCC will flock to the 797. In any case it’s a much tighter market space than the 797 is looking at.

Anyway to me the reason for the US3 to cooperate and play nice is to get a plane that suits their transcon and TATL needs without extra cargo.
 
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:06 pm

Cactusjuba wrote:
compensateme wrote:
Great PR, but DL described its 321NEO order as replacements for older jets rather than new capacity; undountedly, it’ll teeth into the 757 fleet. Put simply, DL’s fleet is just too old to wait for the NMA — IMO, it’ll take a severe recession for DL not to exercise its 100 NEO options, which would all but extinguish the 757 fleet.

Of course, there’s plenty of room in DL’s fleet for the NMA, but it’ll soon become “fake news” on a.net that DL is clinging onto its 757 fleet until the NMA is available, when in reality the NMA would replace the 738, 320 and 767...


Lets assume your "fake news" scenario, that DL would like to hold out for the 797 as the primary replacement for the 757/767. We hear a lot about 2025 for the launch. I'll also add in common delays and delivery roll out in 2027.

By 2025, of DL's 116 752/3s, only 21 will have hit age 30. By 2027, 38.

By 2025, of the 77 763/4ERs, only 17 will hit age 30. By 2027, 22.

I see 20-40 A321NEO, 15-20 330NEO covering fine until 2025-2027.

What makes you believe based off of DL's history, that they cannot or will not keep the 757s or 767s flying up to 30 years? Especially when the best replacement, in which the CEO vocally expresses a strong need for, is just a few years off?


You’re basing your assumptions off of logical fallacies, not facts. Post-bankruptcy, DL pursued secondhand aircraft as a means to grow its fleet while limiting its cash outflow, thereby enabling it to pay down its debt. At the time, DL was explicit that the profit outlook within the airline industry is limited.

But then a funny thing happened - DL started to make money. Lots and lots of money. And new management responded by buying new airplanes - lots and lots of new airplanes; the orders DL placed for delivery within a six year period collectively add up to one of the largest in history.

The thing most a.netters don’t understand... when you have a business that’s generating a large amount of taxable income + lots and lots of cash, you generally want to put some of that money back into the company, since it will lower your tax rate in the short-term and reduce other expenses over the LT.

When DL places its NEO order, it was clear that it was to replace “older, inefficient” aircraft. As I’ve mentioned before, the MD-88 represent less than 25% of the capacity DL has on order, which is a huge clue that they haven’t released their complete fleet renewal plans.

Yet a handful of posters like you want to pretend DL
Isn’t going to retire anything, and in fact will open up a hub in the desert to rotate aircraft in-and-out of its fleet. You’ve mentioned that DL — already struggling with the R&M of the MD90 (and it goes beyond engine overhaul) —- plans to keep a fleet of 25 long-term, and others mention DL is desperately trying to bring the MD90 engine overhaul in house, spending into the hundreds of millions. Fake news indeed.

Again, while I don’t doubt DL is interested in a 32X/737 replacement and direct 767 replacement, these aircraft are many years away and DL will continue to take delivery (barring a severe recession) of new aircraft until that point.

The 797 may find a home in DL’s fleet, but these massive orders predicted here are ridiculous - by the time it’s available for delivery, there will be few 757 in DL’s fleet - if any.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
jagraham
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:31 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
We have had threads about the NMA, but these comments are specifically about Delta potentially ordering 200 NMAs.


Needing to replace 200 757/753/763/764 within the next ten years doesn't imply an order for 200 NMAs. Just like ordering both 739s and 321s, nobody's going to get the whole pie.


Because of how the remaining 757s are used, current 737s and A321s are not suitable. The first suitable thing will be the A321XLR (and it will be interesting to see if Delta orders that).
The 767s are international, except for the 2 Pratts that just won't die. After all DL and the other majors went through to get lie flat seats, going to a narrowbody and giving that up (or having 102 seats in a 198 seat plane like AAs 321T) is not going to happen. And the 787 and A339 are too heavy and long ranged for TATL; even as good as they are on fuel, a well designed NMA can be much better.

I do agree Boeing needs to launch NMA before they have another 737 / A320NEO debacle on their hands.
 
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Polot
Posts: 10873
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:31 pm

compensateme wrote:
Cactusjuba wrote:
compensateme wrote:
Great PR, but DL described its 321NEO order as replacements for older jets rather than new capacity; undountedly, it’ll teeth into the 757 fleet. Put simply, DL’s fleet is just too old to wait for the NMA — IMO, it’ll take a severe recession for DL not to exercise its 100 NEO options, which would all but extinguish the 757 fleet.

Of course, there’s plenty of room in DL’s fleet for the NMA, but it’ll soon become “fake news” on a.net that DL is clinging onto its 757 fleet until the NMA is available, when in reality the NMA would replace the 738, 320 and 767...


Lets assume your "fake news" scenario, that DL would like to hold out for the 797 as the primary replacement for the 757/767. We hear a lot about 2025 for the launch. I'll also add in common delays and delivery roll out in 2027.

By 2025, of DL's 116 752/3s, only 21 will have hit age 30. By 2027, 38.

By 2025, of the 77 763/4ERs, only 17 will hit age 30. By 2027, 22.

I see 20-40 A321NEO, 15-20 330NEO covering fine until 2025-2027.

What makes you believe based off of DL's history, that they cannot or will not keep the 757s or 767s flying up to 30 years? Especially when the best replacement, in which the CEO vocally expresses a strong need for, is just a few years off?


You’re basing your assumptions off of logical fallacies, not facts. Post-bankruptcy, DL pursued secondhand aircraft as a means to grow its fleet while limiting its cash outflow, thereby enabling it to pay down its debt. At the time, DL was explicit that the profit outlook within the airline industry is limited.

But then a funny thing happened - DL started to make money. Lots and lots of money. And new management responded by buying new airplanes - lots and lots of new airplanes; the orders DL placed for delivery within a six year period collectively add up to one of the largest in history.

The thing most a.netters don’t understand... when you have a business that’s generating a large amount of taxable income + lots and lots of cash, you generally want to put some of that money back into the company, since it will lower your tax rate in the short-term and reduce other expenses over the LT.

When DL places its NEO order, it was clear that it was to replace “older, inefficient” aircraft. As I’ve mentioned before, the MD-88 represent less than 25% of the capacity DL has on order, which is a huge clue that they haven’t released their complete fleet renewal plans.

Yet a handful of posters like you want to pretend DL
Isn’t going to retire anything, and in fact will open up a hub in the desert to rotate aircraft in-and-out of its fleet. You’ve mentioned that DL — already struggling with the R&M of the MD90 (and it goes beyond engine overhaul) —- plans to keep a fleet of 25 long-term, and others mention DL is desperately trying to bring the MD90 engine overhaul in house, spending into the hundreds of millions. Fake news indeed.

Again, while I don’t doubt DL is interested in a 32X/737 replacement and direct 767 replacement, these aircraft are many years away and DL will continue to take delivery (barring a severe recession) of new aircraft until that point.

The 797 may find a home in DL’s fleet, but these massive orders predicted here are ridiculous - by the time it’s available for delivery, there will be few 757 in DL’s fleet - if any.

The 797 would primarily be targeted as a 767 replacement on routes where the A339 is too large/will be too capable (re:heavy) and a A321[XLR] too small, not a 757 replacement.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:50 pm

jagraham wrote:
Because of how the remaining 757s are used, current 737s and A321s are not suitable. The first suitable thing will be the A321XLR (and it will be interesting to see if Delta orders that).
The 767s are international, except for the 2 Pratts that just won't die. After all DL and the other majors went through to get lie flat seats, going to a narrowbody and giving that up (or having 102 seats in a 198 seat plane like AAs 321T) is not going to happen. And the 787 and A339 are too heavy and long ranged for TATL; even as good as they are on fuel, a well designed NMA can be much better.

:checkmark:

jagraham wrote:
I do agree Boeing needs to launch NMA before they have another 737 / A320NEO debacle on their hands.

Three years after first flight with a smooth EIS and with five years of backlog in the books and the last two years with positive book to build ratio: that is the kind of debacle any manufacturer will sign up for any day of the week.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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SQ22
Moderator
Posts: 1922
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2012 9:29 am

Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:31 pm

Here is a link to an old thread about this topic dating back to February 2018:

viewtopic.php?t=1386505
 
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rotating14
Posts: 1391
Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:54 pm

Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:07 pm

Years ago when DL did a RFP for their WB needs, they considered the 777x a paper airplane and they weren't interested in paper airplanes. Okay. This NMA doesn't even have a designated model number nor is it launched but the same DL is suddenly trying to be the launch customer of a plane that does not yet make business for the OEM?? :banghead:
 
CMH2578
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:52 am

Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:42 pm

rotating14 wrote:
Years ago when DL did a RFP for their WB needs, they considered the 777x a paper airplane and they weren't interested in paper airplanes. Okay. This NMA doesn't even have a designated model number nor is it launched but the same DL is suddenly trying to be the launch customer of a plane that does not yet make business for the OEM?? :banghead:


Different leadership, different philosophies.

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