Aviation737
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Confirmed: VietJet firming 737 MAX deal during Trump-Kim summit

Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:58 am

Looks like Vietjet is gonna firm the 100 737max that they sign during the Farnborough Airshow last year.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nort ... SKCN1QB16C
Last edited by SQ22 on Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:15 pm, edited 5 times in total.
Reason: Title updated after conformation
 
Armodeen
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Re: VietJet to sign major Boeing deal during Trump-Kim summit: sources

Sat Feb 23, 2019 7:26 am

:lol: Bit like Malaysia did yeah? :duck:
 
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Re: VietJet to sign major Boeing deal during Trump-Kim summit: sources

Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:02 am

No order announcement after the summit for JS ? :duck:
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: VietJet to sign major Boeing deal during Trump-Kim summit: sources

Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:23 am

They weren't already firm?

I applaud VJ's ambition but the infrastructure is probably going to take a long time to catch up, and as with a lot of LCCs in the region I think they'll scale back orders once they can't fill the planes enough. There's a lot of growth and potential in 'Nam but I think it's a bit excessive.
 
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Re: VietJet to sign major Boeing deal during Trump-Kim summit: sources

Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:03 am

MrHMSH wrote:
I applaud VJ's ambition but the infrastructure is probably going to take a long time to catch up, and as with a lot of LCCs in the region I think they'll scale back orders once they can't fill the planes enough. There's a lot of growth and potential in 'Nam but I think it's a bit excessive.


Filling them isn't the problem - it is finding somewhere to park the things, and ensuring there is a functioning terminal that actually allows enough passengers to board. (Major capacity problems are the biggest issue with further airline growth in Vietnam, not demand)
 
Aviation737
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Re: VietJet to sign major Boeing deal during Trump-Kim summit: sources

Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:29 am

MrHMSH wrote:
They weren't already firm?

I applaud VJ's ambition but the infrastructure is probably going to take a long time to catch up, and as with a lot of LCCs in the region I think they'll scale back orders once they can't fill the planes enough. There's a lot of growth and potential in 'Nam but I think it's a bit excessive.

Nope, it was only a MOU. So if they actually go for it VJ would have 200 MAX on order.
 
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Re: VietJet to sign major Boeing deal during Trump-Kim summit: sources

Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Aviation737 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
They weren't already firm?

I applaud VJ's ambition but the infrastructure is probably going to take a long time to catch up, and as with a lot of LCCs in the region I think they'll scale back orders once they can't fill the planes enough. There's a lot of growth and potential in 'Nam but I think it's a bit excessive.


Nope, it was only a MOU. So if they actually go for it VJ would have 200 MAX on order.


I know Wikipedia is Wikipedia (it says that they have 200 on order already), but it says that the breakdown is 120 MAX 8s and 80 MAX 10s. Is this accurate as far as we know?
 
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Re: Reuters: VietJet to firm 737 MAX deal during Trump-Kim summit

Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:33 am

from the article...

Another source briefed on the matter said the deal for 100 737 MAX jets was already on Boeing’s books, having been firmed up earlier and listed as an unidentified customer.
 
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Re: VietJet to sign major Boeing deal during Trump-Kim summit: sources

Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:26 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Aviation737 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
They weren't already firm?

I applaud VJ's ambition but the infrastructure is probably going to take a long time to catch up, and as with a lot of LCCs in the region I think they'll scale back orders once they can't fill the planes enough. There's a lot of growth and potential in 'Nam but I think it's a bit excessive.


Nope, it was only a MOU. So if they actually go for it VJ would have 200 MAX on order.


I know Wikipedia is Wikipedia (it says that they have 200 on order already), but it says that the breakdown is 120 MAX 8s and 80 MAX 10s. Is this accurate as far as we know?

There are only 100 identified 737 MAX orders on Boeing's order book, these are from the 1st order for 100 737-8 MAX 200.

The Farnborough 2018 MOU, which is not identified firm on Boeing's order book was according to news reports for 20 737-8 and 80 737-10. The wiki info comes from the firm order plus the MOU. The question now is if Boeing has booked this order as an unidentified order. But there was no single of those orders last years for 100 737s, there was one for 125 and then one for 40. Unless it was firmed up in parts, or only partially it does look like it will be a completely new order.

The final question will be if they will take delivery of all these planes, only time can tell.
 
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Re: Reuters: VietJet to firm 737 MAX deal during Trump-Kim summit

Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:30 pm

fcogafa wrote:
from the article...

Another source briefed on the matter said the deal for 100 737 MAX jets was already on Boeing’s books, having been firmed up earlier and listed as an unidentified customer.

I think the source was talking about the first 100 Maxes.
 
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VietJet & Boeing sign major deal during Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam

Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:30 am

Hi everyone,

Not sure if this has already been discussed, I did have a search for it however I couldn't find anything. Moderators please delete if this is the case.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-vietjet/vietjet-to-sign-major-boeing-deal-during-trump-kim-summit-sources-idUSKCN1QB16C

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/27/vietnamese-carriers-vietjet-bamboo-sign-deals-for-110-boeing-jets.html

What does everyone think? Is there enough potential growth in this market to justify such a large order?
 
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Revelation
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Re: VietJet & Boeing sign major deal during Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam

Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:19 pm

Longer write up at:

https://airwaysmag.com/industry/boeing- ... -for-787s/

Strange that these days selling 100 narrow bodies and 10 wide bodies doesn't merit much attention.

Despite what some here project, the 737 and 787 backlog keeps growing.
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Re: VietJet & Boeing sign major deal during Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam

Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:36 pm

Revelation wrote:
Longer write up at:

https://airwaysmag.com/industry/boeing- ... -for-787s/

Strange that these days selling 100 narrow bodies and 10 wide bodies doesn't merit much attention.

Despite what some here project, the 737 and 787 backlog keeps growing.


Because the VietJet MoU was already mentionned in great fanfare during Farnborough 2018
https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2018-07-18 ... -Airplanes

Then more recently some journalists have confused VietJet with Vietnam Airlines for the order
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1416449&hilit=Vietnam#unread

Boeing and Airbus (and newspapers) now have a tendency to do at least 3 press releases for a single order and we are just confused. Add the political agenda to satisfy and you can maximize the PR benefits.

The bamboo one is new however (i think, who knows)?
Last edited by LaunchDetected on Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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A388
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Re: VietJet & Boeing sign major deal during Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam

Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:39 pm

Man I always look at these huge aircraft orders with huge eyes. That is a lot of money, really a lot. I know at the same time it is a long term investment in the aircraft fleet so it is money well spent of course (given that they can use so many aircraft in their foreseeable future of course but I have no doubt they will). Congrats to VietJet, Bamboo and Boeing on these orders.


A388
 
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Re: VietJet & Boeing sign major deal during Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam

Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:48 pm

It seems incredible that an airline based in a country of only 90m has a backlog of 300+ NB aircraft.
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Re: VietJet & Boeing sign major deal during Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam

Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:55 pm

LaunchDetected wrote:
Boeing and Airbus (and newspapers) now have a tendency to do at least 3 press releases for a single order and we are just confused. Add the political agenda to satisfy and you can maximize the PR benefits.

Yes, this is so.

All the verbiage around understanding, intent, commitment, order, option, etc seems to keep a lot of people in the PR and media businesses busy.

The NMA program seems to be inventing more of this by having distinctions around offer versus announce versus launch.

It's even worse in sports were we have guarantees that are voidable. The athlete's agent feels better if we call it a guarantee and the team feels better when it's not really a guarantee so we call it a guarantee that is voidable. Then we talk about guaranteed at signing versus guaranteed after year X, etc.
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Re: VietJet & Boeing sign major deal during Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:27 pm

unrave wrote:
It seems incredible that an airline based in a country of only 90m has a backlog of 300+ NB aircraft.


It really isn't. For a start 90m is not small anyway. The first planes in the order will likely be moved on before the last ones come in, that is a staple of LCC business models and so the fleet will likely not reach 200. Vietnam is an astonishingly fast-growing country, and it's in an extremely populous part of the world, demand from China, Korea and Japan to Vietnam is high and growing, and the other Southeast Asian countries have large populations and/or lots of wealth (especially Singapore) too. I think that the main limitation will be infrastructure, or better said the poor state thereof. SGN is ridiculously overcrowded, I think that if it was virtually unlimited the growth would be immense.
 
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Re: VietJet & Boeing sign major deal during Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam

Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:10 pm

So Bamboo Airways has literally only been operating for a month and twelve days yet already they're ordering 10 787s? :scratchchin: Colour me skeptical!
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Re: VietJet & Boeing sign major deal during Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam

Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:18 pm

zkojq wrote:
So Bamboo Airways has literally only been operating for a month and twelve days yet already they're ordering 10 787s? :scratchchin: Colour me skeptical!

As long as the deposit check clears and the progress payments are made, who cares?

As we keep reading, one day a long time ago JetBlue was just a startup and Boeing gave them the cold shoulder.

I feel we can view this as a more informed approach to risk versus reward.
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Re: VietJet & Boeing sign major deal during Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam

Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:52 pm

Revelation wrote:
zkojq wrote:
So Bamboo Airways has literally only been operating for a month and twelve days yet already they're ordering 10 787s? :scratchchin: Colour me skeptical!

As long as the deposit check clears and the progress payments are made, who cares?

As we keep reading, one day a long time ago JetBlue was just a startup and Boeing gave them the cold shoulder.

I feel we can view this as a more informed approach to risk versus reward.


People need to understand a few things in the aviation world, particularly the importance of selling what amounts to a commodity in the market space and why it’s a huge sales multiplier because of reduced financing risk.

The 737 and A320 are routinely sold in huge numbers to airlines you have to look up when the deal is announced. Why are they able to do this? Because financing is readily available for an asset that the financiers believe they can easily place elsewhere if you fold up. It almost doesn’t matter if the airline can take them and make a profit or not. Someone will.

The 787 has achieved this for widebodies. The A330 has that status before. It’s so ubiquitous that it’s low risk for someone to finance a start up carrier. It’s not an A380 no one will want. Or an A330neo no one has ordered. Even the A350 likely is seen as more risky because it’s not as broadly remarketable.

It isn’t just about the planes. It’s about financing to a great degree and the 787 right now is the widebody I wouldn’t be worried about financing.
 
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Re: VietJet & Boeing sign major deal during Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam

Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:56 pm

Revelation wrote:
zkojq wrote:
So Bamboo Airways has literally only been operating for a month and twelve days yet already they're ordering 10 787s? :scratchchin: Colour me skeptical!

As long as the deposit check clears and the progress payments are made, who cares?


Indeed. :smile:


Revelation wrote:
As we keep reading, one day a long time ago JetBlue was just a startup and Boeing gave them the cold shoulder.

I feel we can view this as a more informed approach to risk versus reward.


Yes, but surely this order is several orders of magnitude more risky than JetBlue was.
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Polot
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Re: VietJet & Boeing sign major deal during Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam

Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:01 pm

bigjku wrote:
Revelation wrote:
zkojq wrote:
So Bamboo Airways has literally only been operating for a month and twelve days yet already they're ordering 10 787s? :scratchchin: Colour me skeptical!

As long as the deposit check clears and the progress payments are made, who cares?

As we keep reading, one day a long time ago JetBlue was just a startup and Boeing gave them the cold shoulder.

I feel we can view this as a more informed approach to risk versus reward.


People need to understand a few things in the aviation world, particularly the importance of selling what amounts to a commodity in the market space and why it’s a huge sales multiplier because of reduced financing risk.

The 737 and A320 are routinely sold in huge numbers to airlines you have to look up when the deal is announced. Why are they able to do this? Because financing is readily available for an asset that the financiers believe they can easily place elsewhere if you fold up. It almost doesn’t matter if the airline can take them and make a profit or not. Someone will.

The 787 has achieved this for widebodies. The A330 has that status before. It’s so ubiquitous that it’s low risk for someone to finance a start up carrier. It’s not an A380 no one will want. Or an A330neo no one has ordered. Even the A350 likely is seen as more risky because it’s not as broadly remarketable.

It isn’t just about the planes. It’s about financing to a great degree and the 787 right now is the widebody I wouldn’t be worried about financing.

That + the 787 has achieved the demand and backlog where Boeing doesn’t mind selling more questionable orders before financing finalized that may fall through before delivery, because they can find someone to take the frames (the A330 also once had this status). OEMs also do this when they are desperate (ie the A380 and it’s questionable/risky orders like Amideo/Skymark).
 
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Re: VietJet & Boeing sign major deal during Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam

Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:47 pm

zkojq wrote:
Yes, but surely this order is several orders of magnitude more risky than JetBlue was.

Perhaps, but B6 was no sure fire thing in the early days. No one knew if domestic travelers would make their way out to JFK which was viewed as an international airport. No one knew if they could bring in enough revenue to pay for new airplanes in the era where most startups started with used aircraft. They had made a lot of concessions to the local governments to get the JFK slots which required them to fly a bunch of routes like JFK-BUF which no one expected to be profitable. No one really knew how hard the competition would try to squeeze them out. I presume the competition wishes they tried harder now.
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Re: Reuters: VietJet to firm 737 MAX deal during Trump-Kim summit

Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:14 pm

 
FlyHappy
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Re: VietJet & Boeing sign major deal during Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam

Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:42 pm

zkojq wrote:
Revelation wrote:
As we keep reading, one day a long time ago JetBlue was just a startup and Boeing gave them the cold shoulder.

I feel we can view this as a more informed approach to risk versus reward.


Yes, but surely this order is several orders of magnitude more risky than JetBlue was.


I would argue the opposite, actually.
JFK was basically a depressed domestic airport at the time JetBlue came around, slots just being given away - most of the dozen or so US majors were basket cases of operational dysfunction, but solid customers for the OEM's. Boeing had little business need to take a chance on a startup in that ridiculous competitive, unstable, bankruptcy-rife environment.

Today's environment in SE Asia, as a whole (given that tourism and regional business is what drives air travel demand in Vietnam), is a much healthier bet. There's a huge untapped market in the nearby area, tens of millions of new flying customers every year.

Airlines will fail everywhere, from the richest to the poorest countries, but its rarely a mistake to bet on meaningful growth.
 
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Re: Confirmed: VietJet firming 737 MAX deal during Trump-Kim summit

Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:48 pm

Can we please keep out the B6 discussion moving into in greater details? This topc has been widely discussed and if you want to re-heat it please do this in a separate thread
 
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Stitch
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Re: VietJet to sign major Boeing deal during Trump-Kim summit: sources

Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:53 pm

Per Boeing's PR, both the VietJet and Bamboo orders were previously identified as UFOs so these are formal customer assignments.


LaunchDetected wrote:
Boeing and Airbus (and newspapers) now have a tendency to do at least 3 press releases for a single order and we are just confused. Add the political agenda to satisfy and you can maximize the PR benefits.


China especially likes to book orders as UFOs and then bank them until State Visits to formally announce them, but we are seeing it now with other countries, as well.
 
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Re: VietJet & Boeing sign major deal during Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam

Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:21 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
unrave wrote:
It seems incredible that an airline based in a country of only 90m has a backlog of 300+ NB aircraft.


It really isn't. For a start 90m is not small anyway. The first planes in the order will likely be moved on before the last ones come in, that is a staple of LCC business models and so the fleet will likely not reach 200. Vietnam is an astonishingly fast-growing country, and it's in an extremely populous part of the world, demand from China, Korea and Japan to Vietnam is high and growing, and the other Southeast Asian countries have large populations and/or lots of wealth (especially Singapore) too. I think that the main limitation will be infrastructure, or better said the poor state thereof. SGN is ridiculously overcrowded, I think that if it was virtually unlimited the growth would be immense.

But isn't that number still larger than the combined count of JAL and ANA's domestic/regional fleet, the two main carrier of a country that have more people than Vietnam?
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lavalampluva
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Re: Confirmed: VietJet firming 737 MAX deal during Trump-Kim summit

Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:23 pm

Doesn't Boeing have a completion center in China?
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FlyHappy
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Re: VietJet & Boeing sign major deal during Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam

Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:49 pm

c933103 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
unrave wrote:
It seems incredible that an airline based in a country of only 90m has a backlog of 300+ NB aircraft.


It really isn't. For a start 90m is not small anyway. The first planes in the order will likely be moved on before the last ones come in, that is a staple of LCC business models and so the fleet will likely not reach 200. Vietnam is an astonishingly fast-growing country, and it's in an extremely populous part of the world, demand from China, Korea and Japan to Vietnam is high and growing, and the other Southeast Asian countries have large populations and/or lots of wealth (especially Singapore) too. I think that the main limitation will be infrastructure, or better said the poor state thereof. SGN is ridiculously overcrowded, I think that if it was virtually unlimited the growth would be immense.

But isn't that number still larger than the combined count of JAL and ANA's domestic/regional fleet, the two main carrier of a country that have more people than Vietnam?


You can't compare Japan, which has a world class domestic ground transport infrastructure of roads and rails with Vietnam.

You also can't overlook the fact that Vietnam is also now a major "beach market" with excellent year round weather.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Confirmed: VietJet firming 737 MAX deal during Trump-Kim summit

Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:51 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
Doesn't Boeing have a completion center in China?


Yes; I would be shocked if any 737's were delivered from that facility to a customer outside of the PRC.
 
Antarius
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Re: VietJet & Boeing sign major deal during Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam

Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:46 pm

c933103 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
unrave wrote:
It seems incredible that an airline based in a country of only 90m has a backlog of 300+ NB aircraft.


It really isn't. For a start 90m is not small anyway. The first planes in the order will likely be moved on before the last ones come in, that is a staple of LCC business models and so the fleet will likely not reach 200. Vietnam is an astonishingly fast-growing country, and it's in an extremely populous part of the world, demand from China, Korea and Japan to Vietnam is high and growing, and the other Southeast Asian countries have large populations and/or lots of wealth (especially Singapore) too. I think that the main limitation will be infrastructure, or better said the poor state thereof. SGN is ridiculously overcrowded, I think that if it was virtually unlimited the growth would be immense.

But isn't that number still larger than the combined count of JAL and ANA's domestic/regional fleet, the two main carrier of a country that have more people than Vietnam?


Japan also has the shinkansen and good roads.

HAN-DAD is an hour flight. It is a 15 hour drive. :shock:
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Philbky
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Re: Confirmed: VietJet firming 737 MAX deal during Trump-Kim summit

Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:28 pm

The amount of domestic traffic in Vietnam is growing. When I was there in January, Vietjet and Vietnam Airlines were operating an intense service. The Vietnam Airlines flights I took were all full with a mixture of locals and tourists.

The railway from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh is 3ft 6ins single track and barely reaches 80 kmph, the full trip taking between 33 and 36 hours for just 1726 km. The airports at Hanoi, Da Nang and Ho Chi Minh seem to operate efficiently, even the security and immigration officials are friendly, but the lines can be long and the overall infrastructure is going to have to grow rapidly.

All things being equal, the internal economy and the tourism economy combined are set for continued growth ahead of most other Asian countries. With the poor road and rail links both within and to surrounding countries, the only way into the country for passengers is by air and within the country anything other than a tedious journey by rail or road (and car hire is severely restricted) flying is the only way to travel.

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