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Strato2
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Re: British Airways orders 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:15 pm

mjoelnir wrote:

I did not talk about BA ordering to help Boeing, I would never even have that idea. I did talk about that it is nice for Boeing to fill the vacated Etihad slots with the BA order. 19 777-8/9 orders deferred or canceled are nicely replaced by 18 new 777-9 orders.


One has to wonder at what price these orders came.
 
bigjku
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Re: British Airways orders 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:26 pm

justloveplanes wrote:
bigjku wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:

I think you're being overly pessimistic. The 777X sits outside what I believe is the sweet spot in the market, and its appeal to the market is diminished by the 789 and A359, BA clearly need larger aircraft but they're not exactly representative. If we believe reports then Airbus might launch an A350neo that really puts the 777X at risk.


The BA order fairly confirms that an A350neo either isn’t happening anytime soon orbtht Airbus is actually sane and would put new engines on a downsized model that isn’t directly competing with the 777X but rather is attempting to stop the 787 from kicking its teeth in.

The A350 is badly positioned. It is what it is but it’s a consequence of trying to compete with two models while not disturbing sales of the A330 and A380 to the greatest degree possible. A NEO for it is more of a fix than anything else. Airbus shouldn’t be talking about a NEO before the 787. This is a newer plane. That is a bad sign.


I don't agree the A350 is badly positioned. Airbus took the opening left by Boeing, the 777 market in general and hit a bullseye and sales reflect this. The will split the top of the market with the 777x and the bottom with the 787.

If you mean their market share is smaller due to this, I agree, but I wouldn't call it bad. They have substantial WB turf and have a use case for superiority in the middle of it.


Can they make money competing with the 787? I don’t think they can, or at least not all that much, given the rate disparity and size disparity of the two planes. It’s already going to be more expensive given no engine choice and the bigger overall size. Producing significantly fewer a year just increases that problem.

Unless you just can’t make it work on a 789 you might pay a small premium for an A359 but not that huge of one. And it probably is 10-15% more expensive to make all in than a 787. Probably 7-8% comes from the 65% higher production rate. Another 3-4% just from being smaller and another couple percent for having engine competition. That doesn’t even assess the possibility one company or the other may be more efficient putting the things together. I mean I might pay 3-5% more for the plane but unless I need the payload and range on the extremes the 787-9 will do most of these jobs and be cheaper. This doesn’t mean the A359 is bad or won’t sell. But it’s price will be limited to some multiple of the 789 which limits your earnings.

That’s why the A350 not generating more orders can, not will but can, become a snowball problem and why the 777X nipping away at the top of the market causes issues. A350 rate stays the same, 787 rate goes up. Prices for both have to come down. Airbus clearly in my mind wanted to have the A350-1000 uncontested to be a high margin product. That isn’t happening. The A359 is stuck in a bloodbath and need supplier concessions to lower its cost if you want more profit. But it’s easier to get those when you can promise more volume.

I would say every 777X order to this point is an A350-1000 not sold. Those 350 orders would be supremely valuable to Airbus right now.
 
justloveplanes
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Re: British Airways orders 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:56 pm

bigjku wrote:
justloveplanes wrote:
bigjku wrote:

The BA order fairly confirms that an A350neo either isn’t happening anytime soon orbtht Airbus is actually sane and would put new engines on a downsized model that isn’t directly competing with the 777X but rather is attempting to stop the 787 from kicking its teeth in.

The A350 is badly positioned. It is what it is but it’s a consequence of trying to compete with two models while not disturbing sales of the A330 and A380 to the greatest degree possible. A NEO for it is more of a fix than anything else. Airbus shouldn’t be talking about a NEO before the 787. This is a newer plane. That is a bad sign.


I don't agree the A350 is badly positioned. Airbus took the opening left by Boeing, the 777 market in general and hit a bullseye and sales reflect this. The will split the top of the market with the 777x and the bottom with the 787.

If you mean their market share is smaller due to this, I agree, but I wouldn't call it bad. They have substantial WB turf and have a use case for superiority in the middle of it.


Can they make money competing with the 787? I don’t think they can, or at least not all that much, given the rate disparity and size disparity of the two planes. It’s already going to be more expensive given no engine choice and the bigger overall size. Producing significantly fewer a year just increases that problem.

Unless you just can’t make it work on a 789 you might pay a small premium for an A359 but not that huge of one. And it probably is 10-15% more expensive to make all in than a 787. Probably 7-8% comes from the 65% higher production rate. Another 3-4% just from being smaller and another couple percent for having engine competition. That doesn’t even assess the possibility one company or the other may be more efficient putting the things together. I mean I might pay 3-5% more for the plane but unless I need the payload and range on the extremes the 787-9 will do most of these jobs and be cheaper. This doesn’t mean the A359 is bad or won’t sell. But it’s price will be limited to some multiple of the 789 which limits your earnings.

That’s why the A350 not generating more orders can, not will but can, become a snowball problem and why the 777X nipping away at the top of the market causes issues. A350 rate stays the same, 787 rate goes up. Prices for both have to come down. Airbus clearly in my mind wanted to have the A350-1000 uncontested to be a high margin product. That isn’t happening. The A359 is stuck in a bloodbath and need supplier concessions to lower its cost if you want more profit. But it’s easier to get those when you can promise more volume.

I would say every 777X order to this point is an A350-1000 not sold. Those 350 orders would be supremely valuable to Airbus right now.


Possible, the 787 does have a manufacturing cost advantage I believe that may crimp the A359 at the bottom some. I guess you may have a point there. But the A359 has a payload / range advantage that will remain over the life of a 20 year airframe, through all the PiP;s etc. that won't go away.
Last edited by justloveplanes on Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: British Airways orders 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:56 pm

Kindanew wrote:
No surprise here, I was expecting an 777x order from them.
But I don’t know why people think this means the A350 is at risk. The first one is under construction and crew training has already began. There was always room for more planes to replace the 747’s.


I never understood that either. I believe we will see more and more of dual OEM blue chip orders in future. I dont think any blue chip airline wants to be beholden to a single manufacturer anymore, so I expect further A-350 orders as well.
 
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Revelation
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Re: British Airways orders 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:50 pm

Strato2 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
That, and the relatively small world wide fleet size, and the end of production, is going to create pressure to downsize or eliminate the A380 sooner rather than later.

There will be ~250 A380's flying into the foreseeable future.

The lack of future a380ceo or A380neo orders means there will be no incentive for the engine makers to improve performance on the existing engines. The A380 performance will thus be frozen in time as of the last A380 PIP, as the competition between all the big twins will drive PIPs and NEOs for them. The end of A380 production will drive up the cost of high wear spares. The relatively small fleet size and high cost of spares means there will be few facilities to do heavy maintenance and it will be costly.

Basic economics shows us we can foresee a future where less than 250 A380s will be flying. IMHO this will be sooner than many here seem to think.

Strato2 wrote:
... the A380 which is OT for this thread.

It is on topic because Airbus offered a package of A350-1000 and A380 against Boeing's 77W and 77X which we now know has lost, despite BA already having A380 and A350-1000 in house or on order.

In the bigger picture, the whole narrative that BA would pick up used A380s in the near future, and A380 would stay in production and spawn an UltraFan A380neo in the mid 2020s, and the A350-1000 would squeeze out the 77W and 779 because only the ME3 would buy it, and there would be an A350neo in 2025, has been in its terminal phase for the last few weeks and IMHO has died today. In this time frame BA has rejected more A350-1000 and A380s and has bought more end of the line 77Ws (!) and now 779s which is a remarkable turn of events given how influential BA is, IMHO.
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mjoelnir
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Re: British Airways orders 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:52 pm

bigjku wrote:
justloveplanes wrote:
bigjku wrote:

The BA order fairly confirms that an A350neo either isn’t happening anytime soon orbtht Airbus is actually sane and would put new engines on a downsized model that isn’t directly competing with the 777X but rather is attempting to stop the 787 from kicking its teeth in.

The A350 is badly positioned. It is what it is but it’s a consequence of trying to compete with two models while not disturbing sales of the A330 and A380 to the greatest degree possible. A NEO for it is more of a fix than anything else. Airbus shouldn’t be talking about a NEO before the 787. This is a newer plane. That is a bad sign.


I don't agree the A350 is badly positioned. Airbus took the opening left by Boeing, the 777 market in general and hit a bullseye and sales reflect this. The will split the top of the market with the 777x and the bottom with the 787.

If you mean their market share is smaller due to this, I agree, but I wouldn't call it bad. They have substantial WB turf and have a use case for superiority in the middle of it.


Can they make money competing with the 787? I don’t think they can, or at least not all that much, given the rate disparity and size disparity of the two planes. It’s already going to be more expensive given no engine choice and the bigger overall size. Producing significantly fewer a year just increases that problem.

Unless you just can’t make it work on a 789 you might pay a small premium for an A359 but not that huge of one. And it probably is 10-15% more expensive to make all in than a 787. Probably 7-8% comes from the 65% higher production rate. Another 3-4% just from being smaller and another couple percent for having engine competition. That doesn’t even assess the possibility one company or the other may be more efficient putting the things together. I mean I might pay 3-5% more for the plane but unless I need the payload and range on the extremes the 787-9 will do most of these jobs and be cheaper. This doesn’t mean the A359 is bad or won’t sell. But it’s price will be limited to some multiple of the 789 which limits your earnings.

That’s why the A350 not generating more orders can, not will but can, become a snowball problem and why the 777X nipping away at the top of the market causes issues. A350 rate stays the same, 787 rate goes up. Prices for both have to come down. Airbus clearly in my mind wanted to have the A350-1000 uncontested to be a high margin product. That isn’t happening. The A359 is stuck in a bloodbath and need supplier concessions to lower its cost if you want more profit. But it’s easier to get those when you can promise more volume.

I would say every 777X order to this point is an A350-1000 not sold. Those 350 orders would be supremely valuable to Airbus right now.


Let us look at orders. 30 A350 and 40 A330neo so far this year. Compared to 18 777x and 8 787. A terrible bloodbath for Airbus.
 
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N328KF
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Re: British Airways orders 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:56 pm

Revelation wrote:
In this time frame BA has rejected more A350-1000 and A380s and has bought more end of the line 77Ws (!)
I have not found any confirmation on this point. Did I simply miss it?
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
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Revelation
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Re: British Airways orders 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:04 pm

N328KF wrote:
Revelation wrote:
In this time frame BA has rejected more A350-1000 and A380s and has bought more end of the line 77Ws (!)
I have not found any confirmation on this point. Did I simply miss it?

Sorry for the confusion. I was referring to http://aviationtribune.com/airlines/eur ... 77-300ers/ so the time frame I was thinking of time goes back to July 19, 2018.
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lightsaber
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:06 pm

This thread is becoming too A vs. B:
Do not discuss other users.
Only discuss Airbus in context of the competition.

By all means discuss further 744s to be replaced, BA fleet hypotheses, and why you think the 779 won.

But there are other threads for A380 production ceasing. There are other threads for A350 (non-BA) orders, engine development (tech ops on Txwb), or the ME3.

Lightsaber
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smartplane
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:12 pm

As Boeing/GE and Airbus/RR partnerships strengthen, with only one engine option per model, it will become increasingly common for airlines to select apparently overlapping models, to spread engine risk across two suppliers.

In the short term, there will be 'kick back' from disaffected RR owners, which is why an Airbus/RR announcement can't be too far away.
 
Breathe
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:12 pm

With EY wanting to cancel their order of 777X's, Boeing must have done the rounds offering a "bargain" deal to IAG/BA and other airline groups for the planes. I'm pretty sure Willie Walsh got a good deal from Boeing and that Boeing ended up with an overall net order of -1 from the total 777X order. In saying that these 18 planes are all for the more expensive 777-9 model, rather than the mix of -8 and -9 models EY had on order.
 
ba319-131
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:13 pm

Quite a small J cabin vs the current High J cabin, would have expected about 80 J and a smaller Y cabin given the 744 High J is 86 seats.

Going to miss the BA 744 upper deck J cabin!
111 732 733 734 735 736 73G 738 739,7M8 BBJ 741 742 743 744 752 753 762 763 764 772 77L 773 77W L15 D10 D30 D40 AB3 AB6 312 313 318 319 320 20N 321 21N 332 333 342 343 345 346 359 351 388 CS1 CS3 I86 154 SSJ CRJ CR7 CR9 CRK 145 170 175 220
 
strfyr51
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Re: Bloomberg: British Airways to pick 777X

Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:15 pm

Revelation wrote:
N328KF wrote:
Julie Johnsson, Bloomberg reporter, posted on Twitter that BA may reveal tomorrow that it is going with the 777X as the 747-400 replacement:

BREAKING: @British_Airways has decided on a replacement for its @Boeing 747-400...And it is very good news for Longacres. A 777X deal could be unveiled with earnings tomorrow. The -300ER is also in the mix. Story @TheTerminal #scoop #avgeek


https://twitter.com/juliejohnsson/statu ... 4558223366

Sorry, didn't see this thread, requested the one I started be locked.

N328KF wrote:
This makes me wonder what place the A350-1000 has. Could that order be moved to other IAG units?

Our earlier discussions (some just today) had a mixed opinion if BA had ordered enough airframes/capacity to fully replace 747 and meet other needs.

I think the A35J is still a part of the picture for BA.

I think 779 adds more payload/range above it to leave room for both.

To me the big question is: Is this a sign that BA's A380s may get an early trip to Tarbes?

N328KF wrote:

The tone of the reporting is pretty confident:

The endorsement by one of the world’s premier airlines gives new lift to the 777X program ahead of the upgraded model’s factory roll-out and first flight this year. Analysts have questioned the size of the plane, which features the longest wings ever produced by Boeing and can seat upwards of 400 travelers, as sales sputter after an initial order flurry. IAG also considered adding to an existing British Airways order for Airbus A350-1000 jets.


Yet earlier it just said BA is "leaning" towards the 77W/77X offer.

Guess I'll find out tomorrow morning.

with Rolls having their current Trent problems? I do not find it anywhere amazing that BA ordered the 777X over the A350. Were the A360 able to come equipped with GE engines? Then they'd have a chance. Rolls might have gone a step too far in their technology at this time. It could very well work out Later? But not right now.
BA might not be able to afford to wait.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:18 pm

Breathe wrote:
With EY wanting to cancel their order of 777X's, Boeing must have done the rounds offering a "bargain" deal to IAG/BA and other airline groups for the planes. I'm pretty sure Willie Walsh got a good deal from Boeing and that Boeing ended up with an overall net order of -1 from the total 777X order. In saying that these 18 planes are all for the more expensive 777-9 model, rather than the mix of -8 and -9 models EY had on order.


I think it rubs both ways. EY cancels 777X’s. Airbus cancels the A380. The waters were muddied a bit.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: British Airways orders 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:18 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
bigjku wrote:
justloveplanes wrote:

I don't agree the A350 is badly positioned. Airbus took the opening left by Boeing, the 777 market in general and hit a bullseye and sales reflect this. The will split the top of the market with the 777x and the bottom with the 787.

If you mean their market share is smaller due to this, I agree, but I wouldn't call it bad. They have substantial WB turf and have a use case for superiority in the middle of it.


Can they make money competing with the 787? I don’t think they can, or at least not all that much, given the rate disparity and size disparity of the two planes. It’s already going to be more expensive given no engine choice and the bigger overall size. Producing significantly fewer a year just increases that problem.

Unless you just can’t make it work on a 789 you might pay a small premium for an A359 but not that huge of one. And it probably is 10-15% more expensive to make all in than a 787. Probably 7-8% comes from the 65% higher production rate. Another 3-4% just from being smaller and another couple percent for having engine competition. That doesn’t even assess the possibility one company or the other may be more efficient putting the things together. I mean I might pay 3-5% more for the plane but unless I need the payload and range on the extremes the 787-9 will do most of these jobs and be cheaper. This doesn’t mean the A359 is bad or won’t sell. But it’s price will be limited to some multiple of the 789 which limits your earnings.

That’s why the A350 not generating more orders can, not will but can, become a snowball problem and why the 777X nipping away at the top of the market causes issues. A350 rate stays the same, 787 rate goes up. Prices for both have to come down. Airbus clearly in my mind wanted to have the A350-1000 uncontested to be a high margin product. That isn’t happening. The A359 is stuck in a bloodbath and need supplier concessions to lower its cost if you want more profit. But it’s easier to get those when you can promise more volume.

I would say every 777X order to this point is an A350-1000 not sold. Those 350 orders would be supremely valuable to Airbus right now.


Let us look at orders. 30 A350 and 40 A330neo so far this year. Compared to 18 777x and 8 787. A terrible bloodbath for Airbus.


Mainly because Emirates cancelled their A380 order and had to use their deposits elsewhere in the Airbus portfolio
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
AndyEastMids
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:24 pm

A good recovery for Boeing following the reduction in commitments for the 777X from Etihad. I don't see it as reflecting badly on Airbus other than that Airbus doesn't already have a direct competitor to the 777X.

As far as BA is concerned the 777-9 was a logical conclusion:
    New A380s dead in the water
    Need to retire 747-400s in the 2023/2024 time frame
    A350-1000 smaller than the 777X and too small to replace all of the 744s
    Stretched A350 not a firm program and unlikely to be available before the 747s had to be parked
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:33 pm

bigjku wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
I agree with the others that there's more than enough room at BA for both the A35J & 779.
I also agree with those who think those options are a hedge against having to replace their
380's earlier than originally planned. :)


BA strikes me as having a two order look ahead when they do things. They ordered 18 A350 with 18 options a while back. They then order 18 777-9 with 24 options. I suspect their next order would be looking to replace 777W and A380’s sometime in the future and this matches those numbers pretty close. There may be something coming in the 77E space as well but it seems like more 787’s and some A350-1000 would make the the most sense there.


Back around the 2004 to 2008 time frame they were constantly ordering in 2 to 8 77E's every so often, I think they did the same with the 77W. It is a good way to stay nimble, exercise options with slots as the need appears. It reduces the balance sheet up to the point where the option turns to order. I am sure they have a best customer pricing list.

You have noted before the importance of selecting the right plane for the mission. There are airlines that want just one type, others work a wide number of types, which BA is. If flying a 78X to NYC saves 3% compared to another plane, the route will be mostly that. But A350's, 77E's, 77W's can do similar on other city pairs. It is just maximizing revenue. Now BA is phasing out the 747: many different types are replacing the 747, this order is replacement for a specific subset.

As mentioned up thread, the availability of slots that EY is deferring (possibly indefinite) may have been the tipping point.
 
SonomaFlyer
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:28 pm

If BA decides to do 2-4-2, I'd assume they would stagger their layout.
 
Sooner787
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:25 pm

It would be interesting if BA converted some of their 779 options for 778's
to compete with QF on the LHR- PER / SYD routes? :)
 
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Stitch
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:43 pm

SonomaFlyer wrote:
If BA decides to do 2-4-2, I'd assume they would stagger their layout.


The Club World seat going into the A350 will be 2+4+2 and offer direct aisle access for everyone so I would expect the same on the 777X (likely with wider aisles).
 
Bricktop
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Re: British Airways orders 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:44 pm

Strato2 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

I did not talk about BA ordering to help Boeing, I would never even have that idea. I did talk about that it is nice for Boeing to fill the vacated Etihad slots with the BA order. 19 777-8/9 orders deferred or canceled are nicely replaced by 18 new 777-9 orders.


One has to wonder at what price these orders came.

An interesting question. If indeed it turns out that these are EY's frames (which there is no proof of as yet), then did BA get them at the launch price that EY got piggybacking on EK and QR, or is it more. Less? Highly dubious. Therefore, at least a breakeven and probably a win for Boeing. Otherwise, I haven't seen pricing anywhere, but presumably similar to SQ/CX/NH.
 
Arion640
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:12 pm

Stitch wrote:
SonomaFlyer wrote:
If BA decides to do 2-4-2, I'd assume they would stagger their layout.


The Club World seat going into the A350 will be 2+4+2 and offer direct aisle access for everyone so I would expect the same on the 777X (likely with wider aisles).


You sure? All the rumours are pointing to 1-2-1...
 
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Stitch
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:14 pm

Stitch wrote:
The Club World seat going into the A350 will be 2+4+2 and offer direct aisle access for everyone so I would expect the same on the 777X (likely with wider aisles).

Arion640 wrote:
You sure? All the rumours are pointing to 1-2-1...


BA has filed two patent applications for the layout and both show 2+4+2 with 16" aisles.
 
Turnhouse1
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:15 pm

It's a sensible order from BA, though they could use half the order just flying LHR-JFK, it will be interesting if they're a low MTOW variant optimized for TATL and they no doubt negotiated a good price.
 
Arion640
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:22 pm

Stitch wrote:
Stitch wrote:
The Club World seat going into the A350 will be 2+4+2 and offer direct aisle access for everyone so I would expect the same on the 777X (likely with wider aisles).

Arion640 wrote:
You sure? All the rumours are pointing to 1-2-1...


BA has filed two patent applications for the layout and both show 2+4+2 with 16" aisles.


Airlines file lots of patents and lots of concepts, but the latest rumours on flyertalk point to a 1-2-1 suite with doors in the form of a turned up version of the Qatar Airways 787/A380/A350 seat.

I won’t discount you though, as you could turn out to be right in the end.
 
FriscoHeavy
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:57 pm

Breathe wrote:
With EY wanting to cancel their order of 777X's, Boeing must have done the rounds offering a "bargain" deal to IAG/BA and other airline groups for the planes. I'm pretty sure Willie Walsh got a good deal from Boeing and that Boeing ended up with an overall net order of -1 from the total 777X order. In saying that these 18 planes are all for the more expensive 777-9 model, rather than the mix of -8 and -9 models EY had on order.



...Or perhaps the 777-9 was just the superior plane for what BA was looking for?

They ‘Must’ not have done anything. Boeing had the best plane for BA at this time for the right price. Boeing will make money on the sale and BA will make a ton of money flying it. Really, that’s all there is to it.

People like to try and overthink things when it doesn’t need to be.
Whatever
 
ikramerica
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:55 am

Stitch wrote:
The 777-9 makes a perfect replacement for the High-J 747-400 fleet with the 777-300ER handling the Low-J 747-400 replacement.

BA have already noted their initial A350-1000s will not have First Class and will be 2+4+2 in Club World and the new seat has already been shown. As such, I see the A350-1000s replacing the 777-200ER fleet.

All the over analysis on this thread and this simple post sums it up nicely. Using the 77W and 779 to replace the 744 allows replacing the F/J capacity while right sizing that pesky Y cabin.

What happens to the A380 in this fleet plan?
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:11 am

Breathe wrote:
With EY wanting to cancel their order of 777X's, Boeing must have done the rounds offering a "bargain" deal to IAG/BA and other airline groups for the planes. I'm pretty sure Willie Walsh got a good deal from Boeing and that Boeing ended up with an overall net order of -1 from the total 777X order. In saying that these 18 planes are all for the more expensive 777-9 model, rather than the mix of -8 and -9 models EY had on order.


We don't know yet what the final disposition of EY's 777X order will be. They said only that they had "restructured" their order and "committed" to take six. Those are intentionally vague words; they could mean the other 19 are canceled, deferred indefinitely, or a combination of both. So we don't yet know the effect on Boeing's backlog. We'll find out at Boeing's next monthly update.
 
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:55 am

seabosdca wrote:
Breathe wrote:
With EY wanting to cancel their order of 777X's, Boeing must have done the rounds offering a "bargain" deal to IAG/BA and other airline groups for the planes. I'm pretty sure Willie Walsh got a good deal from Boeing and that Boeing ended up with an overall net order of -1 from the total 777X order. In saying that these 18 planes are all for the more expensive 777-9 model, rather than the mix of -8 and -9 models EY had on order.


We don't know yet what the final disposition of EY's 777X order will be. They said only that they had "restructured" their order and "committed" to take six. Those are intentionally vague words; they could mean the other 19 are canceled, deferred indefinitely, or a combination of both. So we don't yet know the effect on Boeing's backlog. We'll find out at Boeing's next monthly update.


All aircraft orders from the gulf carriers should be considered suspect until they are actually delivered. Each emirate is vying with the other to have the tallest, biggest and baddest of everything whether it be building or mall or airline, business case be damned.
 
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:05 am

Breathe wrote:
With EY wanting to cancel their order of 777X's, Boeing must have done the rounds offering a "bargain" deal to IAG/BA and other airline groups for the planes. I'm pretty sure Willie Walsh got a good deal from Boeing and that Boeing ended up with an overall net order of -1 from the total 777X order. In saying that these 18 planes are all for the more expensive 777-9 model, rather than the mix of -8 and -9 models EY had on order.


I really think the main impact here was that EY slots were freed up for someone. Whether directly or by domino, they fell to BA. The rest of what you posted is superfluous.
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JAAlbert
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Re: British Airways orders 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:03 am

mjoelnir wrote:
I did not talk about BA ordering to help Boeing, I would never even have that idea. I did talk about that it is nice for Boeing to fill the vacated Etihad slots with the BA order. 19 777-8/9 orders deferred or canceled are nicely replaced by 18 new 777-9 orders.


How did I miss the news that Etihad canceled/deferred 19 of its 777-9 orders?

The Boeing rendering of the BA 777-9 doesn't depict the smaller exit door between the third and last door. Is this just to keep the illustration clean, or will BA not have 5 exits per side?
 
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Re: British Airways orders 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:13 am

JAAlbert wrote:
How did I miss the news that Etihad canceled/deferred 19 of its 777-9 orders?


I'm not sure Etihad has made a formal public announcement, but internal airline memos have been leaked that show they intend to only take 5 of 62 A350s and 6 of 26 777X with cancellation of the remainder.


JAAlbert wrote:
The Boeing rendering of the BA 777-9 doesn't depict the smaller exit door between the third and last door. Is this just to keep the illustration clean, or will BA not have 5 exits per side?


I would be surprised if any operators chooses a configuration other than four Type A doors. Emirates have said the two-class birds will seat 440 which is the limit with that configuration.
 
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Re: British Airways orders 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:56 am

Stitch wrote:
JAAlbert wrote:
How did I miss the news that Etihad canceled/deferred 19 of its 777-9 orders?


I'm not sure Etihad has made a formal public announcement, but internal airline memos have been leaked that show they intend to only take 5 of 62 A350s and 6 of 26 777X with cancellation of the remainder.


JAAlbert wrote:
The Boeing rendering of the BA 777-9 doesn't depict the smaller exit door between the third and last door. Is this just to keep the illustration clean, or will BA not have 5 exits per side?


I would be surprised if any operators chooses a configuration other than four Type A doors. Emirates have said the two-class birds will seat 440 which is the limit with that configuration.


The memos do not mention cancellations but rather, that the balance of the remaining orders will be settled at a later time though re-sched, restructuring or reduction. No concrete plans disclosed at this point in time.
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:59 am

tvarad wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
Breathe wrote:
With EY wanting to cancel their order of 777X's, Boeing must have done the rounds offering a "bargain" deal to IAG/BA and other airline groups for the planes. I'm pretty sure Willie Walsh got a good deal from Boeing and that Boeing ended up with an overall net order of -1 from the total 777X order. In saying that these 18 planes are all for the more expensive 777-9 model, rather than the mix of -8 and -9 models EY had on order.


We don't know yet what the final disposition of EY's 777X order will be. They said only that they had "restructured" their order and "committed" to take six. Those are intentionally vague words; they could mean the other 19 are canceled, deferred indefinitely, or a combination of both. So we don't yet know the effect on Boeing's backlog. We'll find out at Boeing's next monthly update.


All aircraft orders from the gulf carriers should be considered suspect until they are actually delivered. Each emirate is vying with the other to have the tallest, biggest and baddest of everything whether it be building or mall or airline, business case be damned.


I'm guessing you've never lived in this region, if you did then you would realise there's only one emirate pursuing that goal and with the intent of bringing in huge volumes of tourism and associated spending. Being number 4 on the most visited cities list, it seems their plan is working just fine.
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Arion640
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:04 am

Be interesting to see how these birds fit in the hanger down at Cardiff.
 
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:24 pm

tvarad wrote:
All aircraft orders from the gulf carriers should be considered suspect until they are actually delivered. Each emirate is vying with the other to have the tallest, biggest and baddest of everything whether it be building or mall or airline, business case be damned.

That's a pretty interesting take when we consider some of the earliest airlines to cancel A380s were LH and AF, then VS and QF, and EK only cancelled when RR could not deliver a satisfactory engine then transferred the full value of their orders in to other Airbus products.
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:08 pm

ikramerica wrote:
Stitch wrote:
The 777-9 makes a perfect replacement for the High-J 747-400 fleet with the 777-300ER handling the Low-J 747-400 replacement.

BA have already noted their initial A350-1000s will not have First Class and will be 2+4+2 in Club World and the new seat has already been shown. As such, I see the A350-1000s replacing the 777-200ER fleet.

All the over analysis on this thread and this simple post sums it up nicely. Using the 77W and 779 to replace the 744 allows replacing the F/J capacity while right sizing that pesky Y cabin.

What happens to the A380 in this fleet plan?

Nothing happens. They're all pretty new, and BA liked them enough to consider ordering more prior to cancellation. They're in the fleet and that's where they'll stay until either they become hugely expensive to operate due to a fuel price spike or they hit retirement age.
 
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:18 pm

My guess is that this isn't the only 77X order between now and rollout. I bet we see more in the next 2-3 weeks. AF/KLM? UA? Additional for LH? Additional for EK? Korean?
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marcelh
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:42 pm

[quote="GEUltraFan9XGTF"]My guess is that this isn't the only 77X order between now and rollout. I bet we see more in the next 2-3 weeks. AF/KLM? UA? Additional for LH? Additional for EK? Korean?[/quote]

I think orders will come after the test flights or EIS.
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:08 pm

marcelh wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
My guess is that this isn't the only 77X order between now and rollout. I bet we see more in the next 2-3 weeks. AF/KLM? UA? Additional for LH? Additional for EK? Korean?


I think orders will come after the test flights or EIS.
BA is one of the last airlines which hadn’t ordered a replacement for their 747’s.

If Boeing puts teeth in their promises, we will see more orders. EK, OZ, AF/KLM

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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:49 pm

lightsaber wrote:
marcelh wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
My guess is that this isn't the only 77X order between now and rollout. I bet we see more in the next 2-3 weeks. AF/KLM? UA? Additional for LH? Additional for EK? Korean?


I think orders will come after the test flights or EIS.
BA is one of the last airlines which hadn’t ordered a replacement for their 747’s.

If Boeing puts teeth in their promises, we will see more orders. EK, OZ, AF/KLM

Lightsaber

I also expect KE. They fly almost all types made by Boeing
 
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:09 pm

marcelh wrote:
I also expect KE. They fly almost all types made by Boeing


Korean Air Aerospace makes parts for the 777X so KE will certainly buy the plane since it's been claimed one of the reasons they bought the 747-8 was because they made parts for it. :duck:
 
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:21 pm

I expect AF at some point. They have made noises about their A380s being hard to use, but do have large-capacity missions. They also have some of the first 77Ws off the line and may be ready to replace those by the mid-2020s. KL would be interesting, but I tend to think they would do better with a few more late-production (or even used) 77Ws.

The Chinese (all airlines together, given the centralized aircraft allocation method) haven't committed to much in this space. They do have quite a few later-build 77Ws, but the market is growing and I think they'll need more capacity. No doubt the fight between A350-1000 and 779 will be quite political.

I expect EVA to order eventually, but probably not this year (or even next).

A lot is going to depend on how A380 economics evolve. If maintenance and support start getting difficult, we may see orders to replace A380s in the mid-2020s.

I don't expect any of the US3 to order any time in the next decade. Delta doesn't like planes this big at all. Both UA and AA see use for only a small number of them, and both have brand-new 77W fleets with state-of-the-art hard products.
 
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:36 pm

seabosdca wrote:
I don't expect any of the US3 to order any time in the next decade. Delta doesn't like planes this big at all. Both UA and AA see use for only a small number of them, and both have brand-new 77W fleets with state-of-the-art hard products.


I mostly agree. But I think BA is a good example of what could become an issue at AMS - slots and the need for large aircraft. This could lead not only KLM but also DL to jump into the large aircraft market. I can easily see DL running the 779s to AMS (but, DL doesn't have many markets that they need that capacity).
 
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Re: British Airways orders 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:04 pm

bigjku wrote:
I would say every 777X order to this point is an A350-1000 not sold. Those 350 orders would be supremely valuable to Airbus right now.


Maybe some of them, but not all. The 777-9 is a whole lot larger (around 50 more passengers and much more cargo). So if an Airline can fill at least a part of these extra seats or needs this capacity then the 777-9 is their plane and the A350-1000 just a too small alternative.

BA already has the A350-1000 on order. They could have just topped that up. But they seem to need that extra capacity to offer their premium cabins and still have some space left for a sufficient number of economy seats.
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:20 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
I don't expect any of the US3 to order any time in the next decade. Delta doesn't like planes this big at all. Both UA and AA see use for only a small number of them, and both have brand-new 77W fleets with state-of-the-art hard products.


I mostly agree. But I think BA is a good example of what could become an issue at AMS - slots and the need for large aircraft. This could lead not only KLM but also DL to jump into the large aircraft market. I can easily see DL running the 779s to AMS (but, DL doesn't have many markets that they need that capacity).

If this was even close to becoming a genuine issue for DL they wouldn't be running mostly 767s into AMS, which is what they're doing. They'd be running 777s and A350s.

DL is not the type of airline that would buy a specific type of plane that they've shown little interest in for one route.
 
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:40 pm

seabosdca wrote:
I expect AF at some point. They have made noises about their A380s being hard to use, but do have large-capacity missions. They also have some of the first 77Ws off the line and may be ready to replace those by the mid-2020s. KL would be interesting, but I tend to think they would do better with a few more late-production (or even used) 77Ws.

The Chinese (all airlines together, given the centralized aircraft allocation method) haven't committed to much in this space. They do have quite a few later-build 77Ws, but the market is growing and I think they'll need more capacity. No doubt the fight between A350-1000 and 779 will be quite political.

I expect EVA to order eventually, but probably not this year (or even next).

A lot is going to depend on how A380 economics evolve. If maintenance and support start getting difficult, we may see orders to replace A380s in the mid-2020s.

I don't expect any of the US3 to order any time in the next decade. Delta doesn't like planes this big at all. Both UA and AA see use for only a small number of them, and both have brand-new 77W fleets with state-of-the-art hard products.


I would assume that China won't be ordering any big Boeings as long as Trump is in the WH. Advantage Airbus.
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Bricktop
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:53 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
I would assume that China won't be ordering any big Boeings as long as Trump is in the WH. Advantage Airbus.

You know what happens when you assume? ;) They may want to be throwing Trump a bone.

Of course, all the CN3 combined have only 17 planes bigger than the B77W right now in fleets totalling over 1,500, so maybe they aren't in a hurry.
 
Mrakula
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Re: British Airways orders 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:53 pm

Revelation wrote:
Mrakula wrote:
Did you notice 777-9 was launced after A350-1000?

Boenig has too enlarge T7 to compete with A350 because other way it would be too heavy for pax capacity compare to A350! But it makes sence for market, cause 747-8i does not sell, while A380 is too big.

I'm not sure what point you are making.

To me it's significant that that the clean sheet A35J is not taking the role that end of the line 77Ws and 779 NEO/NWOs are taking at BA.

You can find many posts on this site saying that BA wanted to simplify its fleet and A35J would be its flag ship big twin, and that more new/used A380s would keep the A380 in its role as BA's flagship VLA for the foreseeable future.

Now we know otherwise.

BA is going to have a big twin in its fleet that's smaller than the A380 yet has better CASM.

That, and the relatively small world wide fleet size, and the end of production, is going to create pressure to downsize or eliminate the A380 sooner rather than later.

In turn that will create more opportunities for 779 and perhaps even the fabled 777-10 as well.


You have mentoined Airbus could make A350 compete with 777-9 instead of 772 and 773, but when A350 was lauched there was not a hint of 77X!

I do not think any twin have better CASM like A380 if you configurate them in same density.

If you compare 779 4-class cabin and A350-1000 with 3 class cabin CASM will be A350 advantage, but same as A380 give airlines with high premium demand, better profit! That is the case why BA need 779.
 
bigjku
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Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:57 pm

Bricktop wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
I would assume that China won't be ordering any big Boeings as long as Trump is in the WH. Advantage Airbus.

You know what happens when you assume? ;) They may want to be throwing Trump a bone.

Of course, all the CN3 combined have only 17 planes bigger than the B77W right now in fleets totalling over 1,500, so maybe they aren't in a hurry.


The two nations are engaged in a negotiation over trade. Resolving it is in everyone’s interest and there is reportedly progress. It’s not absurd for the US tonask China to reduce its trade imbalance after all. And one of the quickest and most visible ways to do that is to buy more Boeing airplanes rather than Airbus ones.

Beijing will have to calculate whom is likely to drive a harder bargain and who is the more valuable trading partner. I suppose we will see but I won’t be shocked if trade negotiations finish up and you actually see large orders placed. Not necessarily for the 777X but for Boeing’s in general.

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