British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

N328KF · Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:07 am

Julie Johnsson, Bloomberg reporter, posted on Twitter that BA may reveal tomorrow that it is going with the 777X as the 747-400 replacement:

BREAKING: @British_Airways has decided on a replacement for its @Boeing 747-400...And it is very good news for Longacres. A 777X deal could be unveiled with earnings tomorrow. The -300ER is also in the mix. Story @TheTerminal #scoop #avgeek

https://twitter.com/juliejohnsson/statu ... 4558223366

This makes me wonder what place the A350-1000 has. Could that order be moved to other IAG units?

N328KF · Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:19 am

Link with article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ing-jumbos

jbs2886 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:21 am

"The size of the potential order isn’t known, although British Airways is poised to retire all 34 of its four-engine jumbos by early 2024. The carrier has also been mulling an order of an earlier Boeing model, the 777-300ER, to fill the gap in its network as deliveries of the 777X ramp up following the new jet’s commercial debut next year, the people said."

Interesting part of the article - more 77Ws possible in the interim. Is there still a 777 production gap?

Revelation · Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:24 am

N328KF wrote:
Julie Johnsson, Bloomberg reporter, posted on Twitter that BA may reveal tomorrow that it is going with the 777X as the 747-400 replacement:

BREAKING: @British_Airways has decided on a replacement for its @Boeing 747-400...And it is very good news for Longacres. A 777X deal could be unveiled with earnings tomorrow. The -300ER is also in the mix. Story @TheTerminal #scoop #avgeek

https://twitter.com/juliejohnsson/statu ... 4558223366

Sorry, didn't see this thread, requested the one I started be locked.

N328KF wrote:
This makes me wonder what place the A350-1000 has. Could that order be moved to other IAG units?

Our earlier discussions (some just today) had a mixed opinion if BA had ordered enough airframes/capacity to fully replace 747 and meet other needs.

I think the A35J is still a part of the picture for BA.

I think 779 adds more payload/range above it to leave room for both.

To me the big question is: Is this a sign that BA's A380s may get an early trip to Tarbes?

N328KF wrote:
Link with article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ing-jumbos

The tone of the reporting is pretty confident:

The endorsement by one of the world’s premier airlines gives new lift to the 777X program ahead of the upgraded model’s factory roll-out and first flight this year. Analysts have questioned the size of the plane, which features the longest wings ever produced by Boeing and can seat upwards of 400 travelers, as sales sputter after an initial order flurry. IAG also considered adding to an existing British Airways order for Airbus A350-1000 jets.

Yet earlier it just said BA is "leaning" towards the 77W/77X offer.

Guess I'll find out tomorrow morning.

XT6Wagon · Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:40 am

I think BA has to make plans for the A380s leaving earlier than they might otherwise want. If its 2025 and some parts required get expensive or even unavailable... They might have little choice.

Doesn't mean they will get rid of the A380 early, just that it would be irresponsible for them to not make plans today in case they have to.

chrisp390 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:42 am

Where does the A350-1000 fit in with all this? And are the used A380’s off the table now?

rotating14 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:44 am

This is quite the endorsement for the 777x. If Boeing can secure QF and Vietnam Airlines, it'll be a much needed shot in the arm for the program.

For every 777x ordered and delivered, it definitely dampens the prospects of Airbus introducing a new widebody aircraft similar in size and spec.

Revelation · Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:48 am

chrisp390 wrote:
Where does the A350-1000 fit in with all this? And are the used A380’s off the table now?

Our recent discussions here had mixed opinions around whether BA had ordered enough aircraft to replace 747, or not.

This would be a sign that they had not.

Of course, A35J is still a large part of the 744 replacement picture as is 78X and 789.

I think consensus is that more A380s was no longer in the picture.

AB and BA had chats just before the A380 was shut down and no new order resulted.

The only suitable used A380s (with RR engines) were the ones from Malaysia, and BA and MH tried to reach agreement, and failed.

As above, this may end up pointing to the possibility that the current A380 fleet winds down sooner rather than later.

william · Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:49 am

Didn't BA publicly complain how the M3 airlines influenced the 777X (too much range for BA needs)?

The A350-1000 is not the same size as the 777X, why wouldn't not fit in at BA?

Maliyanwalto · Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:52 am

Hello,
This would be a huge endorsement, and totally offset a possible QF order for the A350....
Cheers
Maliyanwalto

Revelation · Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:54 am

william wrote:
Didn't BA publicly complain how the M3 airlines influenced the 777X (too much range for BA needs)?

The A350-1000 is not the same size as the 777X, why wouldn't not fit in at BA?

The way I read the article, the 77W/77X would be purchased in addition to A35J.

As I mentioned above, depending on how you do the math, you could make the argument that BA really hadn't finished replacing 744s yet.

An order of 77W/77X or more A35J would seal the argument, and it seems that is now a strong possiblity.

Note (again) the links above suggest (at least in some parts) that this is not a done deal, but it does suggest BA is leaning towards 77W/77X as opposed to just taking more A35J.

N328KF · Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:55 am

Maliyanwalto wrote:
Hello,
This would be a huge endorsement, and totally offset a possible QF order for the A350....
Cheers
Maliyanwalto

Is there an actual indication that Qantas is going to go with the A350? I highly suspect BA snapped up 777X slots freed up by the ME3 realignment.

Revelation · Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:00 am

N328KF wrote:
Maliyanwalto wrote:
Hello,
This would be a huge endorsement, and totally offset a possible QF order for the A350....
Cheers
Maliyanwalto

Is there an actual indication that Qantas is going to go with the A350? I highly suspect BA snapped up 777X slots freed up by the ME3 realignment.

I think Project Sunrise is still too close to call.

XT6Wagon · Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:02 am

I think BA has to make plans for the A380s leaving earlier than they might otherwise want. If its 2025 and some parts required get expensive or even unavailable... They might have little choice.

Doesn't mean they will get rid of the A380 early, just that it would be irresponsible for them to not make plans today in case they have to.

musman9853 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:05 am

How many do y'all think will be ordered? 20-30 ish?

Antarius · Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:08 am

N328KF wrote:
Maliyanwalto wrote:
Hello,
This would be a huge endorsement, and totally offset a possible QF order for the A350....
Cheers
Maliyanwalto

Is there an actual indication that Qantas is going to go with the A350? I highly suspect BA snapped up 777X slots freed up by the ME3 realignment.

None. Some people cant have a thread about B without bringing up A (and vice versa)

MrHMSH · Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:26 am

Not surprising, the 777X is hardly a poor fit for BA's fleet needs, but most of what I've read indicated that 744 replacement had already been decided, so it'll be interesting to see what's been shifted.

Maliyanwalto · Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:32 am

Hello,
No, Antarius is wrong...
I brought it up in the context of others saying what a coup publicity wise it would be for Boeing. BA ordering the 777X would perfectly ‘balance’ a possible/probable order by QF for the A350. Definitely NOT as flame bait for another A v B firestorm.
Many Aussies like me in the avgeek and pilot communities believe that Airbus has the upper hand in Sunrise. There was even speculation on Sydney commercial radio last week that a QF A350 order ‘was imminent’.
I am a fanboy of the 777 and have followed the development of the 777X closely.
I make absolutely no apologies for my comment.
Sunrise may be ‘too close to call’ as Revelation stated, but we will know the outcome soon enough.
Keep smilin’
Maliyanwalto

seabosdca · Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:52 am

Looks like EY has found a way to make Boeing whole.

This is not a surprise. BA was still short 12 747-400 replacements before any growth was taken into consideration. Etihad's statement sounded as though it was going to cancel or defer 19 frames, and it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see a 19-frame BA order, with the last 5-7 aircraft for relatively late delivery.

LoganTheBogan · Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:06 am

I believe BA has its first A350-1000 in or near FAL anyway.

mavml · Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:21 am

Confirmed as 18 777-9 + 24 options.

http://www.iairgroup.com/phoenix.zhtml? ... ID=2389387

A330freak · Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:27 am

Boeing press release

https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2019-02-28 ... ines-Group

IslandRob · Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:32 am

A330freak wrote:
Boeing press release

https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2019-02-28 ... ines-Group

Beautiful - a most excellent and fitting replacement for BA's venerable 747 fleet! And 24 options? Sweet! -ir

Maliyanwalto · Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:32 am

Hello,
Excellent news!
At last, after all of that speculation.
Congrats to all involved! A strong sign of faith in the future of BA with Brexit imminent.
Keep smilin’
Maliyanwalto
PS: no sign of the speculated top up of 777-300ERs? I’d been hoping that the December 13 2018 order for 4 frames had been for BA....

qf789 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:34 am

mavml wrote:
Confirmed as 18 777-9 + 24 options.

http://www.iairgroup.com/phoenix.zhtml? ... ID=2389387

According to the press release the 18 777-9's will replace 14 744's and 4 772's, deliveries to be between 2022 and 2025. All aircraft will be in a 4 class configuration with 325 seats in total

seabosdca · Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:36 am

By far the best-looking 777X rendering yet. If only BA aircraft could be as glorious on the inside as they are outside. It's always such a treat to see the 744 or 772 on approach, either one, out my office window.

Arion640 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:37 am

A year ago i never thought we would see this, but recently in the last few months I warmed to the idea.

Interesting to see what the config is.

AA737-823 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:44 am

You know, in light of the events of the past couple weeks, I can't help but think "That plane would look GREAT in the BOAC or Landor paint scheme!!!"

MileHFL400 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:49 am

What stood out to me is four of the -9’s will replace much smaller -200’s.

And that they will only be configured with 325 seats?!

jomur · Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:50 am

Should have just ordered more A350s considering these will be 4 class with 325 pax.

dare100em · Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:53 am

MileHFL400 wrote:
What stood out to me is four of the -9’s will replace much smaller -200’s.

And that they will only be configured with 325 seats?!

They are 4-class, so F, J, Y+ and Y. Premium heavy which makes sense for the biggest plane in the long run.

Kindanew · Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:54 am

No surprise here, I was expecting an 777x order from them.
But I don’t know why people think this means the A350 is at risk. The first one is under construction and crew training has already began. There was always room for more planes to replace the 747’s.

5427247845 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:57 am

qf789 wrote:
All aircraft will be in a 4 class configuration with 325 seats in total

BA is an airline that can use the real estate of a 779.
I would be more surprised when they shouldn’t order it.

5427247845 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:02 am

Kindanew wrote:

But I don’t know why people think this means the A350 is at risk

Unfortunately a lot of people still think B should be the only WB manufacturer.

Arion640 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:04 am

MileHFL400 wrote:
What stood out to me is four of the -9’s will replace much smaller -200’s.

And that they will only be configured with 325 seats?!

Off the top of my head the -200’s don’t have much more than 280 seats, it’s a closer match than most people think.

These are clearly BA’s super high j 747 replacements, there’s about 18 of those. I expect the config to be something like 6F/70J/55W and the rest economy.

The A350’s are on the way with the new J seat onboard - there’s no turning back on them. They are BA’s Mid J 747 replacement with no F.

MileHFL400 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:04 am

marcelh wrote:
Kindanew wrote:

But I don’t know why people think this means the A350 is at risk

Unfortunately a lot of people still think B should be the only WB manufacturer.

I don’t think that’s the point here. The A350-1000 and B777-9 cover similar missions. They have similar range and aren’t too far apart in size.

5427247845 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:07 am

marcelh wrote:
Kindanew wrote:

But I don’t know why people think this means the A350 is at risk

Unfortunately a lot of people still think B should be the only WB manufacturer
I’m an aviation enthousiast and I love to see a lot of different planes in different liveries. And the A35K and B779 are just different enough for some customers to add both types to their fleets.

ericm2031 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:09 am

Although not that unexpected, still a great vote of confidence in the model, especially with NZ/QF currently going through their respective RFPs. Although only 8 airlines have signed on so far, its a very prestigious 8

xwb565 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:10 am

BA like CX have enough room for both the a35k and the 779. BA would have been giving up valuable market share in certain markets with the smaller a35k. Airbus is clearly not in any position to commit to a stretch so this was always on the cards.

Waterbomber2 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:11 am

This is a big winner for Boeing.
Now that Airbus has nothing to offer above the A350-1000, the market is all in Boeing's pockets.
Now they only need to launch the NMA to totally destroy Airbus in the widebody market.
With a B797/787/777X combo, Airbus' meager A330neo/A350 offering will be eclipsed.
If Airbus wants to remain meaningful, they'll have to do something about the B797 or risk long-term downsizing.

Airbus should have given WW the firesale A380's he wanted in a combo with more A350's and/or A320neo.
What a strategic mistake for Airbus.
Now they have really opened up the market for the B777X.

IslandRob · Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:18 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Airbus should have given WW the firesale A380's he wanted in a combo with more A350's.
What a strategic mistake for Airbus.

Maybe WW's well-publicized toying with the idea of adding A380s was just a ploy for getting price concessions on the 779. -ir

RJMAZ · Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:22 am

I'm curious how the 777X will perform.

We have the 777X with the big wing and better lift to drag ratio versus the A350-1000 with the empty weight advantage.

A better lift to drag ratio means less thrust required. A lower empty weight means less thrust required. Either one could come out on top.

We have CMC's in the GE9X that could allow the 2 spool engine to surpass the fuel burn of the 3 spool Trent XWB.

The 777X could comfortably beat the A350-1000 im every metric. We do not know the answer yet.

As the 777X fuel burn estimates firm up airlines will get a good indication on what aircraft will have the lowest fuel burn per passenger.

Conservative airlines often sit on the fence until the aircraft performance is known. Big 777X orders will be a good indicator of the performance.

In terms of slot restricted airports if both the 777X and A350 get a stretch to the 80m box limit the 777X will have 10% more seats. This could be an advantage.

Waterbomber2 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:31 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
This is a big winner for Boeing.
Now that Airbus has nothing to offer above the A350-1000, the market is all in Boeing's pockets.
Now they only need to launch the NMA to totally destroy Airbus in the widebody market.
With a B797/787/777X combo, Airbus' meager A330neo/A350 offering will be eclipsed.
If Airbus wants to remain meaningful, they'll have to do something about the B797 or risk long-term downsizing.

Airbus should have given WW the firesale A380's he wanted in a combo with more A350's.
What a strategic mistake for Airbus.

Airbus will not stand still. You can bet that the resources freed up from shutting down the A380 line and wrapping up A330/A350 developments will allow for them to do a clean-sheet NMA of their own as well as some growth at the top end of the A350 line. Boeing will be in for a fight.

797/787/777X
V
A360/A330neo/A350

Two clean sheets and an overhaul against two clean sheets and an overhaul.

I doubt that Airbus would launch a proper NMA.
The only thing that Airbus can do is prevent the B797 launch by acting fast and launching an A322 in two versions with one being a stretch to 250 seats. Once they close that loop off, they can eventually look into developping the A321XLR for those who just need a light TATL workhorase.
Closing off the NMA business case and securing the market below the B787 is the right thing to do.

But with an Airbus management that is making the mistake of putting an end to the A380, I doubt that there will be the necessary initiative. It wouldn't surprise me if they sit on their hands and wait for Boeing to remove their feathers one by one, smoke them and hang them.

On the other hand, Boeing has momentum. They should also act fast while Airbus are sitting ducks.

RJMAZ · Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:33 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
With a B797/787/777X combo, Airbus' meager A330neo/A350 offering will be eclipsed.
If Airbus wants to remain meaningful, they'll have to do something about the B797 or risk long-term downsizing.

Boeing will not doubt have the full spectrum covered. With the 797 covering the 737's weaknesses.

With the A350-900 family being significantly larger and heavier than the 787-8, Airbus has a very large MOM gap as the A330NEO is only a short term stopgap. The capabilities of the A350 will grow with the ultrafan and effectively increase their MOM gap.

The Airbus MOM aircraft will no doubt launch in the next 5 years. A stretch of the A321 does not fill this massive MOM gap. I am very certain the Airbus cleansheet MOM will be sized so that it sits nicely between the proposed 797 and the current A330NEO in terms of size and capability.

StudiodeKadent · Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:38 am

This makes total sense for BA given their density/size needs. I fully expected them to get 777-9s. 10-ab Economy, 8-ab Premium, 8-ab Updated Club World, and probably at least 12 First (using an adapted version of the 787 suites), and they'll have a great jet for their needs.

And no, the A350s won't be rendered useless by this. The A350-1000 would only take 9-ab Economy, 8-ab or 7-ab Premium, and 7-ab Updated Club World (the jet isn't that much wider than the 787 at armrest level). The A350-1000 replaces 777s, the 777X replaces 747s.

Swadian · Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:42 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
This is a big winner for Boeing.
Now that Airbus has nothing to offer above the A350-1000, the market is all in Boeing's pockets.
Now they only need to launch the NMA to totally destroy Airbus in the widebody market.
With a B797/787/777X combo, Airbus' meager A330neo/A350 offering will be eclipsed.
If Airbus wants to remain meaningful, they'll have to do something about the B797 or risk long-term downsizing.

Airbus should have given WW the firesale A380's he wanted in a combo with more A350's and/or A320neo.
What a strategic mistake for Airbus.
Now they have really opened up the market for the B777X.

I doubt it. Airbus will likely try to lop off Boeing's advantage at the bottom end with the A220 and A321. Their worst nightmare wouldn't be a MOM, it would be a Boeing NSA.

seahawk · Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:53 am

2019 will be the year of the 777. Not good news for the A350 though.

Max Q · Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:00 am

So two of the three leading Airline groups in Europe now have significant orders for the 777-9

Can AF/KLM be far behind?

I see this as further legitimization of this aircraft and a firm vote of confidence in its future, its a logical replacement down the road for airlines worldwide to replace their 77W fleets

jfk777 · Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:02 am

The map of the seating configuration would be helpful ?

Elshad · Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:03 am

MileHFL400 wrote:
What stood out to me is four of the -9’s will replace much smaller -200’s.

And that they will only be configured with 325 seats?!

Maybe it's an indirect replacement. So the four -9s are used to replace four existing -200ERs, which are then used to replace the three non-ER 200s and one older -200ER

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