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seabosdca
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Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:41 am

In the BA 777X report thread, we heard this juicy rumor, almost as an aside:

Maliyanwalto wrote:
Many Aussies like me in the avgeek and pilot communities believe that Airbus has the upper hand in Sunrise. There was even speculation on Sydney commercial radio last week that a QF A350 order ‘was imminent’.


I find this very interesting only because I think the A350-1000 "as is" was farther from the mission requirements than the 777-8. If Airbus has this nearly in the bag, they must also have decided at a high level what they'll do to make an A350-1000 fly 9700 nm. Very curious if anyone has any clues what it might be. MTOW increase (seems like a given)? Empty weight removal? New wingtip treatments (the A350-1000 could really use a bit more span to go with its wing area)? More thrust? Not only is this interesting from a Project Sunrise perspective, but it also seems like any of it applies directly and easily to any A350 stretch. It could change the economics of the current A vs. B standoff with regard to further stretches of the big guys.
 
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BlueSky1976
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:53 am

Airbus is working on A350-1000 "ULR" treatment, which is the same as the one A350-900 received. That's what was offered to Qantas as a part of Project Sunrise.
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:57 am

The A350 has significant room for improvements, just need to look at how the A330/A340 capability’s improved significantly over the years.

I don’t necessarily agree with the comments that Airbus has the upper hand. What the A350 currently is capable of is well known. Boeing could easily use that plus 5-10% as their EIS baseline.
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Maliyanwalto
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:23 am

Hello,
Interesting response to my comment.
I balance it by stating that a number of other avgeeks and pilots I know in the local Aussie arena believe that the further-refined 777-8 has the upper hand. However, the majority of avgeeks and pilots (and for that matter, QF Freight and maintenance personnel as well) I associate with feel that overall, the A350 will get Sunrise. It appears to ‘better fit’ Alan Joyce’s publicised parameters, including his recent comments that sunrise-liner must be able to economically do Sydney-HK and -Tokyo for example in between ULH LHR and JFK flights.
And I say that as a 777 fanboy : love the jet and wish that QF had somehow made it work years ago.
Yes, airbus might have had more work to do than Boeing moving the baseline model to meet Sunrise, but I believe Alan Joyce stated that both OEMs had achieved it.
I am sure that we will find out soon enough. It will be far from the biggest order ever placed (8 frames firm I have heard speculates initially, plus options) but it will discussed and considered heavily. Perhaps a few other airlines are watching Sunrise developments very closely too, like Qatar (the latest 5 A350-1000s ordered potentially converted to the ULH model?), Turkish, Ethiopian and Air New Zealand?
Keep smilin’
Maliyanwalto
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:40 am

I guess the answer depends much on what the 777-8 will be or will not be.

Does anyone know if the 777-8 already reached firm configuration milestone? Thank you.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:10 am

I think both aircraft 777-8 and A350-100 have equal chance but for different reasons.

It is of course up to Qantas to define it's priorities.
In my opinion this is a very interesting contest where the airline's long term strategy could overcome the importance of aircraft capability or performance.
 
JQ321
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:33 am

Why does any manufacturer have the "upper hand"?
Neither of them have an aircraft on paper that does what QANTAS wants.
In Addition neither have any of them openly stated anything but they are trying to extend the range.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:44 am

At this point, I think that Boeing has the upper hand and not because they have the better aircraft.
Boeing has momentum, they have strong leadership and they are looking to the future.
They have desire, determination and opportunity and that is what is going to make them win.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:55 am

JQ321 wrote:
Neither of them have an aircraft on paper that does what QANTAS wants.


you don't know that.

You (, me and the rest of the great unwashed public ) are
not privy to communications between either airframer and Qantas.
Myself, I think that an A350 offering has the chance to more efficiently meet the requested performance specs.
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qf002
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:03 am

QF started with a hard 300 seat, full payload to LHR requirement which meant that really only the 778 was in contention. More recently they’ve pulled back somewhat which was a clear attempt to bring the A350 more into the picture. Whether they’ve done that to extract a better price from Boeing or because they are genuinely moving in that direction is impossible to know.

Personally I think the A350 is the better option. Offers far more flexibility moving forward (ie if fuel goes up and the whole ULH thing is a bust) and it’s the newer generation of plane that can see QF through to 2050 (the 777 will be older than the 747 is today by then!).
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:06 am

Both the A350-1000 and 777-8 could be tweaked to create the Project Sunrise jet.

A350 has the newer tech, more comfortable cabin, more consistent layouts with the 787s QF already has, and lighter weight (thus more flexibility). Would also have great commonality with the vanilla A350-1000, which Qantas could easily order to do the "big Pacific routes" (Syd/Mel to: Haneda, Hong Kong, Singapore, Los Angeles, San Francisco). Also those A380 deposits could be used on A350s.

777X has higher capacity, potentially higher payload-range performance, and a closer match to the A380. The 777-9 would do the "big Pacific routes," the 777-8 would do the Project Sunrise routes (i.e. Syd/Mel - LHR/JFK, and perhaps SYD - CDG/FRA). Not to mention, QF and Rolls-Royce have a bit of bad blood after the incident with one of their A380s.

Either is theoretically feasible. Boeing are probably more desperate to get buyers for the 777X family (even with BA's recent order they don't have a huge number of buyers) than Airbus is to get A350 customers. But I do think the A350, if tweaked, would be the superior choice from a purely economic viewpoint (since its operating economics would likely be better).

So in brief? It could easily go either way.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:18 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
At this point, I think that Boeing has the upper hand and not because they have the better aircraft.
Boeing has momentum, they have strong leadership and they are looking to the future.
They have desire, determination and opportunity and that is what is going to make them win.


This sums up well the vast majority of opinions expressed on a.net.

Unfactual rubbish, and complete lack of understanding of how the air transportation business works.
Last edited by LaunchDetected on Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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BlatantEcho
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:13 pm

StudiodeKadent wrote:
A350 has the newer tech, more comfortable cabin, more consistent layouts with the 787s QF already has, and lighter weight (thus more flexibility). Would also have great commonality with the vanilla A350-1000, which Qantas could easily order to do the "big Pacific routes" (Syd/Mel to: Haneda, Hong Kong, Singapore, Los Angeles, San Francisco). Also those A380 deposits could be used on A350s.



I'm not saying the A350 is 'old tech' but, how does a plane that has been in service for a few years now, have 'newer' tech than a plane that hasn't even been revealed to the public yet?

I think I get what you're trying to say 'the A350 was clean sheet, the 77X is not, so the A350 is clearly superior' or something.
But, introducing incorrect statements about which one being 'newer' when it is 1000% 'older' does not help your case.

--
You've got to imagine the 778 here has the payload and range capabilities of no other plane in the world.
Will the A35K ULR come close? Maybe, none of us know.
But, right now, again, using facts, the 778 is the plane that is the closest to what Project Sunrise calls for.

Could change, I'm sure Airbus isn't asleep at the wheel here. But, I think facts are important more than just conjecture.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:18 pm

LaunchDetected wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
At this point, I think that Boeing has the upper hand and not because they have the better aircraft.
Boeing has momentum, they have strong leadership and they are looking to the future.
They have desire, determination and opportunity and that is what is going to make them win.


This sums up well the vast majority of opinions expressed on a.net.

Unfactual rubbish, and complete lack of understanding of how the air transportation business works.


The same poster, two weeks ago, suggested that Airbus should freeze the A380 production line in situ, with the employees at the ready when customers inevitably come running back to the A380.

In this particular scenario, I think it will come down to whether QF wants to come closer to a 747-400 replacement (which would lend itself to 777X) or not (which could make it a toss-up.)
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:24 pm

As posted on previous threads, QF will be weighing whether to order only a small dedicated fleet for ULH, or whether the ULH and / or sister frames will be deployed more widely on other routes in their network.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:26 pm

The reality is we don’t know what the numbers look like in QF’s analysis so far. But what we can say – it’s too often overlooked – is that the math will involve much more than the number of pax the A350/778 can carry SYD-LHR. Sydney/Melbourne to London are just two of a dozen or more sectors that will go into the analysis. So long as he can get a reasonable pax load SYD-LHR (250ish?) Joyce will be looking to maximise yield across the long haul/ULH network. That includes multiple combinations of SYD/MEL/BNE and LHR/NYC/DFW/ORD/GIG plus various Asian, US west coast and other European destinations.

The practical point is that the more you add those regular destinations into the mix the more the 778/779’s excess capability and trip costs will count against them. The clincher might be the prospect of a 350neo becoming available from mid/late 2020s – GE will hardly be in a position to offer anything comparable for the 77X.

We can’t predict an A350 win on the information we have – on the face of it you would expect the 77X to be an obvious match for QF’s extreme payload/range requirements for North America. But the math across the network should make the A350 highly competitive.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:56 pm

The B777-8 has been on offer since 2013, so far ULH-specialists EK and QR have ordered 35 and 10 aircraft respectively, EY has ordered 8 but there is uncertainty about their future as a whole.

QF is also a ULH-specialist and yet they do not seem convinced about the B777-8 - they have undoubtedly been thoroughly briefed by Boeing about its capabilities, but they still cannot decide. If the B777-8 is the ultimate ULH machine, why isn't QF launch customer since 2014 and pushing to have the aircraft in service yesterday?

The B777-8 will have 351,5T MTOW while the A350-1000ULR is expected to have 316-320T MTOW - that's a difference of 30-35 tonnes. A lot of that will be fuel weight and not a problem if the aircraft take off with max fuel load on every flight, but if QF wants the flexibility to use the aircraft on shorter routes too, the B777-8 may be considered too heavy and costly...?
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:58 pm

From where I sit the 77X could be the more versatile aircraft with regards to ensuring economic seat capacity in all ULH, LH and medium haul.

Using the SIA ULH A350 as a guide, I can't see that type of aircraft configuration as being economical on medium haul routes.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:08 pm

IMHO it's a bad sign for A350 that BA took 779s when they already have bought A359 and A35J.

To me this suggests Boeing is reaching payload-range points that A350 is not.

Also RR stepping away from NMA at the same time as announcing a GBP 3B loss suggest that UltraFan will be coming later rather than sooner.

Therefore IMHO the idea of an early A350neo based on UltraFan is fading away.

I agree the idea that QF has adjusted their requirements downward and wants a more general purpose aircraft helps A350.

All this suggests to me that the contest is too close to call.
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:22 pm

Hmm, MTOW increase for the A350-1000 would be the easiest one to do and maybe could be used for the baseline for A350-2000 in 2025. Looks like these kind of modifications would work better for Airbus since they could used the upgrade for upcoming project.

While Boeing would spent tons of money on B777-8 to satisfied Qantas small order for the type. If I'm Boeing, I would probably pull out now to save money and focus on other products that would be more successful like B797.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:29 pm

Revelation wrote:
IMHO it's a bad sign for A350 that BA took 779s when they already have bought A359 and A35J.

To me this suggests Boeing is reaching payload-range points that A350 is not.

Also RR stepping away from NMA at the same time as announcing a GBP 3B loss suggest that UltraFan will be coming later rather than sooner.

Therefore IMHO the idea of an early A350neo based on UltraFan is fading away.

I agree the idea that QF has adjusted their requirements downward and wants a more general purpose aircraft helps A350.

All this suggests to me that the contest is too close to call.

With all due respect, I would argue that it has always been known that the 777X would reach payload-range points the A350 could never possibly reach in its current form. I agree with the remaining points and your conclusion that it is too close to call.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:29 pm

Revelation wrote:
IMHO it's a bad sign for A350 that BA took 779s when they already have bought A359 and A35J.

To me this suggests Boeing is reaching payload-range points that A350 is not.

Also RR stepping away from NMA at the same time as announcing a GBP 3B loss suggest that UltraFan will be coming later rather than sooner.

Therefore IMHO the idea of an early A350neo based on UltraFan is fading away.

I agree the idea that QF has adjusted their requirements downward and wants a more general purpose aircraft helps A350.

All this suggests to me that the contest is too close to call.


Well it's only logical for BA for doing so. It's the perfect aircraft for Heathrow. The capacity would probably the main factor for it.

And I don't think Qantas would wait to at least 2025 for their project. 2022 - 2023 is the projected delivery date for such aircraft. So it would ruled out A350neo. Unless they are being convinced by Airbus to wait for at least 2-3 years to launch the sunrise routes.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:34 pm

Revelation wrote:
IMHO it's a bad sign for A350 that BA took 779s when they already have bought A359 and A35J.

To me this suggests Boeing is reaching payload-range points that A350 is not.

Also RR stepping away from NMA at the same time as announcing a GBP 3B loss suggest that UltraFan will be coming later rather than sooner.

Therefore IMHO the idea of an early A350neo based on UltraFan is fading away.

I agree the idea that QF has adjusted their requirements downward and wants a more general purpose aircraft helps A350.

All this suggests to me that the contest is too close to call.


BA haven't ordered the A359.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:37 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
As posted on previous threads, QF will be weighing whether to order only a small dedicated fleet for ULH, or whether the ULH and / or sister frames will be deployed more widely on other routes in their network.


I think this is a key point. Joyce has spoken about needing an aircraft that can be rotated to shorter routes such as SYD-HKG. He's also open to ordering the A359 to complement the A35K.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:47 pm

I assume that when QF canceled their A380s there were deposits involved. From what I have read I believe that it went down something like this. EK approached Airbus and said that without engine improvements they wanted to cancel all A380s that were not already started. Airbus then went to all of the other customers who had A380s on order and said either take them or cancel them. All chose to cancel them. I do not know, nor does anyone not involved, what the resolution on deposits was for any of them. But since QF had already taken 12 of them and had firm orders for 20 I am assuming that they had run out of escape clauses. Therefore, I believe that there is money on the table that they will lose unless they can transfer it to another Airbus product. This, if true, gives Airbus a huge leg up on this order. If not, and the playing field is level, then I guess it depends on whether QF want a larger or a smaller plane. The 778 is definitely a bit bigger than the A3510; I am assuming that the economics of the two will be very close.
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:03 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
BA haven't ordered the A359.

Thanks for pointing that out. I misunderstood something I read online earlier.
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:59 am

BlatantEcho wrote:
But, I think facts are important more than just conjecture.


There is a difference between chronologically newer and technologically newer.

The 777X is not (yet) the overstretched warmup that the 737 iterations present.. :-)
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:14 am

If QF want 300 pax+cargo...only have the B777-8X....if only want 300 pax.....A35K
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:18 am

pabloeing wrote:
If QF want 300 pax+cargo...only have the B777-8X....if only want 300 pax.....A35K


If you are talking about the current models on offer, neither of those aircrafts are that much capable for SYD-LHR. The 777-8 can probably carry around 235 pax and bags where as for the current A35K it would be closer to 205. You can forget cargo altogether, especially for the west bound journey. The project sunrise version of these will have special modifications ( and MTOW increase for A35K) to take more fuel and much less than the brochure 365 pax in 2 class. QF have backed down on the 300pax number since it can't be done at all so I am guessing they would likely accept a 260-270 pax solution. 777-8 definitely has the advantage for payload but it comes at significantly more weight and worse performance for shorter routes.

Officially both manufacturers are still too close as they are still trying to improve capability. Airbus would have the upper hand only if they can increase the MTOW to 322T or more and find a way to load more fuel ala A359 ULR.

Revelation wrote:
IMHO it's a bad sign for A350 that BA took 779s when they already have bought A359 and A35J.

Not really, BA really needed a larger plane for higher number of J seats + F seats to replace the premium 744s. Their A35K are configured without F and are supposed to have 331 pax. The 779 config is 325 seats with 8F seats and 65 J. The difference between these two planes are those 8 F seats and possibly a row of J. That could be worth $40k+ profit per plane per trip on LHR-JFK/LAX. That's why Wally wanted cheap A380s.
Last edited by sabby on Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:25 am

What indication are there that Qantas are leaning as it is either way? It will be quite a while until a decision is made and it will depend not only on specs but commercial considerations.
We will get a decision and then the fans of the other frame will be astonished. It is not even sure that any frame will give a satisfactory outcome for Qantas and the whole project can still be canceled.
 
Lewton
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:18 am

What does it matter who has the upper hand?
Who wins the contract will matter.
 
marcelh
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:32 am

Revelation wrote:
IMHO it's a bad sign for A350 that BA took 779s when they already have bought A359 and A35J.

To me this suggests Boeing is reaching payload-range points that A350 is not


We are here talking about the ULR version of the A35K, which isn’t just a regular A35K.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:18 pm

Erebus wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
As posted on previous threads, QF will be weighing whether to order only a small dedicated fleet for ULH, or whether the ULH and / or sister frames will be deployed more widely on other routes in their network.


I think this is a key point. Joyce has spoken about needing an aircraft that can be rotated to shorter routes such as SYD-HKG. He's also open to ordering the A359 to complement the A35K.


I think he confirmed they were planning to put the Sunrise jet onto routes to PER, SIN and HKG to help with utilization thouhg I can't find where he said it.
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:20 pm

Revelation wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
BA haven't ordered the A359.

Thanks for pointing that out. I misunderstood something I read online earlier.


You might be getting confused with IAG orders. Iberia have A350-900's and Aer Lingus have orders that pre-dates the IAG takeover. As mentioned above, BA only have A350-1000's on order.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:12 pm

If the 35K gets a ULR treatment that is the same as the one the 359 got, it will limit Qantas's flexibility a bit on other routes. The 359 ULR has the forward cargo hold blocked.

I have to think Airbus is looking at something a bit more comprehensive that would allow its 35K ULR to fly "regular" QF long-haul missions, with full holds, as well. If Airbus can find the right formula, the lighter empty weight of the A350 compared to the 777X is going to be hard for Boeing to counter.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:13 am

pabloeing wrote:
If QF want 300 pax+cargo...only have the B777-8X....if only want 300 pax.....A35K


LOL yeah, no cargo for both model. None of them could do the whole trip with any cargo.
Also, There is no way 300 seat would be possible. It would be closer to 250-280 seat at most in 3-4 class.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:51 am

SEPilot wrote:
I assume that when QF canceled their A380s there were deposits involved. From what I have read I believe that it went down something like this. EK approached Airbus and said that without engine improvements they wanted to cancel all A380s that were not already started. Airbus then went to all of the other customers who had A380s on order and said either take them or cancel them. All chose to cancel them. I do not know, nor does anyone not involved, what the resolution on deposits was for any of them. But since QF had already taken 12 of them and had firm orders for 20 I am assuming that they had run out of escape clauses. Therefore, I believe that there is money on the table that they will lose unless they can transfer it to another Airbus product. This, if true, gives Airbus a huge leg up on this order. If not, and the playing field is level, then I guess it depends on whether QF want a larger or a smaller plane. The 778 is definitely a bit bigger than the A3510; I am assuming that the economics of the two will be very close.

Maybe they put their deposits on some of the A320NEO family aircraft they have on order.
I also doubt that QANTAS would have just cancelled their order and lost the deposits as in their contract if airbus Canceled the program they incur steep financial penalties. Therefore, i think they must of already come to a mutual agreement.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:56 pm

I think this is such a niche market, neither Boeing, Airbus or Qantas wants to invest to much. For Qantas this is about a long haul solution, of which ULH is a smaller sub requireement. As such I don't a A350-900 ULH version complete off the table.
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tealnz
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:34 pm

Revelation wrote:
IMHO it's a bad sign for A350 that BA took 779s when they already have bought A359 and A35J. To me this suggests Boeing is reaching payload-range points that A350 is not.

Does BA have many routes where payload/range is a real issue? I would have guessed that Hong Kong and Singapore are about the most demanding and those are both standard 744/77W routes. 779 looks to me more like a four-class purchase for high premium routes that don't necessarily require 779 payload/range.

JerseyFlyer wrote:
As posted on previous threads, QF will be weighing whether to order only a small dedicated fleet for ULH, or whether the ULH and / or sister frames will be deployed more widely on other routes in their network.

Answer might be both. SYD/MEL-LHR look set to be the most demanding sectors. Might warrant a small sub-fleet with forward hold sealed and cargo system removed, as on SQ ULRs, to save weight. But QF has so many current/potential ULH routes (SYD/MEL/BNE to DFW, ORD, NYC, GIG/GRU as well as US west coast) that it's easy to imagine a Sunrise fleet of 20+ frames. And since QF seems to be positioning itself as a high-premium carrier there's no reason why the same aircraft can't be used to Asian destinations.

pabloeing wrote:
If QF want 300 pax+cargo...only have the B777-8X....if only want 300 pax.....A35K

Depends on how much additional capability Airbus can build into the 35K. But also on the destination. Might be true of SYD-LHR. But QF will be doing the math on a network basis, including a bunch of shorter North and South American destinations. On which the 35K will also offer cargo capability.
 
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hongkongflyer
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:21 pm

JQ321 wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
I assume that when QF canceled their A380s there were deposits involved. From what I have read I believe that it went down something like this. EK approached Airbus and said that without engine improvements they wanted to cancel all A380s that were not already started. Airbus then went to all of the other customers who had A380s on order and said either take them or cancel them. All chose to cancel them. I do not know, nor does anyone not involved, what the resolution on deposits was for any of them. But since QF had already taken 12 of them and had firm orders for 20 I am assuming that they had run out of escape clauses. Therefore, I believe that there is money on the table that they will lose unless they can transfer it to another Airbus product. This, if true, gives Airbus a huge leg up on this order. If not, and the playing field is level, then I guess it depends on whether QF want a larger or a smaller plane. The 778 is definitely a bit bigger than the A3510; I am assuming that the economics of the two will be very close.

Maybe they put their deposits on some of the A320NEO family aircraft they have on order.
I also doubt that QANTAS would have just cancelled their order and lost the deposits as in their contract if airbus Canceled the program they incur steep financial penalties. Therefore, i think they must of already come to a mutual agreement.


I heard from here saying that basically QF can cancel all the remaining 380 order without losing any penalty because EIS delay,
that's why they could keep deferring the delivery.
Even this is not the true,I believe they must reach a good deal regarding it as Airbus really don't want to produce any more 380 after EK's cancellation.
And the amount paid (if not refundable) can easily be used on the 320s for JetStar.

QF won't be that stupid to link the Sunrise project with the 380 in order to get a good deal from Airbus
 
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zeke
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:29 pm

hongkongflyer wrote:
I heard from here saying that basically QF can cancel all the remaining 380 order without losing any penalty because EIS delay,


Airbus paid QF cash for the EIS delay, it was listed in their public accounts. The A380 deposits could literally go anywhere, maybe even to the A321neos QF is getting.

Don’t see any link with the A380 cancellation and sunrise.
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keesje
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:18 pm

hongkongflyer wrote:
JQ321 wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
I assume that when QF canceled their A380s there were deposits involved. From what I have read I believe that it went down something like this. EK approached Airbus and said that without engine improvements they wanted to cancel all A380s that were not already started. Airbus then went to all of the other customers who had A380s on order and said either take them or cancel them. All chose to cancel them. I do not know, nor does anyone not involved, what the resolution on deposits was for any of them. But since QF had already taken 12 of them and had firm orders for 20 I am assuming that they had run out of escape clauses. Therefore, I believe that there is money on the table that they will lose unless they can transfer it to another Airbus product. This, if true, gives Airbus a huge leg up on this order. If not, and the playing field is level, then I guess it depends on whether QF want a larger or a smaller plane. The 778 is definitely a bit bigger than the A3510; I am assuming that the economics of the two will be very close.

Maybe they put their deposits on some of the A320NEO family aircraft they have on order.
I also doubt that QANTAS would have just cancelled their order and lost the deposits as in their contract if airbus Canceled the program they incur steep financial penalties. Therefore, i think they must of already come to a mutual agreement.


I heard from here saying that basically QF can cancel all the remaining 380 order without losing any penalty because EIS delay,
that's why they could keep deferring the delivery.
Even this is not the true,I believe they must reach a good deal regarding it as Airbus really don't want to produce any more 380 after EK's cancellation.
And the amount paid (if not refundable) can easily be used on the 320s for JetStar.

QF won't be that stupid to link the Sunrise project with the 380 in order to get a good deal from Airbus


Indeed, the financial dealings play a minor role. QF can easily use them for e.g. more A321NEO's/LR's or other aircraft types.

https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/618597-qantas-get-a321-neo.html
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EChid
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:01 pm

Don't forget that QF's goal over the next few months, both privately and publically, is to trumpet the fact that each company is still in the race and therefore should put their best foot forward. Maximum engineering effort, minimum price.

Personally, I can't see a way that the 77X doesn't win this - and I say that as a person who can't find any love for the 77X series as a whole. But if QF says that now, prices go up at Boeing and AB gives up.
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JAAlbert
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:09 pm

tealnz wrote:
So long as he can get a reasonable pax load SYD-LHR (250ish?) Joyce will be looking to maximise yield across the long haul/ULH network.


A 350-1000 or 777-8 with only 250 passengers would feature very spacious interiors. Perhaps the aircraft will have room for the famous lounges onboard. Would Qantas use the 10 abreast on a Sunrise 777-8?
 
tealnz
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:18 pm

You'd have to assume so. But the amount of F/J/W seating won't leave much space for Y.
 
tealnz
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:03 pm

Although QF seem focused on the A35K rather than the 359 for the Sunrise competition I seem to recall Joyce has mentioned the possibility of buying the 359 as part of a wider fleet strategy (presumably only if QF goes with the 35K). If the 359 is going to be part of the calculation on overall capability and performance some new numbers from xwb565 are interesting:

Eyad89 wrote:
xwb565 wrote:
Some new figures for consideration from a 280t a359 with the latest performance improvements- 11.5hr trip, 71t fuel burn, 60t payload and 272 tow.


So that was flying at its MZFW? Since it still had 8 tons before it hit MTOW, it would be able to fly for 13hr carrying 60t of payload. Not bad.

Block time SYD-LAX is around 13:40, LAX-SYD more like 15:00.

Underlines how attractive a 359 could be as part of the fleet mix if QF want a low trip cost option with the ability to do ULH routes (NYC, ORD) but also a serious payload capability on SYD/MEL/BNE to US west coast. There's a big difference between a 280t airframe and 351t.
 
ewt340
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Mon Mar 04, 2019 12:44 am

seabosdca wrote:
If the 35K gets a ULR treatment that is the same as the one the 359 got, it will limit Qantas's flexibility a bit on other routes. The 359 ULR has the forward cargo hold blocked.

I have to think Airbus is looking at something a bit more comprehensive that would allow its 35K ULR to fly "regular" QF long-haul missions, with full holds, as well. If Airbus can find the right formula, the lighter empty weight of the A350 compared to the 777X is going to be hard for Boeing to counter.


I do believe the ULR could be converted to the standard variants. So this is a lower risk for qantas if project sunrise fails.
 
Lewton
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:56 am

ewt340 wrote:
I do believe the ULR could be converted to the standard variants. So this is a lower risk for qantas if project sunrise fails.

This might well be the deciding factor at the end of the day.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Mon Mar 04, 2019 3:13 pm

in the land of Anet where we are able to play lego planes I wonder what the performance of :-
A359 length, A359 external wing geometry.
A35K gear and A35k engines, to support MTOW of 300-305t would give you.

Fred
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Project Sunrise: Does Airbus have the upper hand?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:41 pm

DJ's Aviation, you know the teenager with an Aussie accent who thinks he's an industry expert, is "reporting" that the A350-1000ULR has been selected. His source? Pilots and airline staff.

Check out his YouTube channel if interested. I refuse to link to his drivel here.
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