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intotheair
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Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:32 am

Rolls Royce says its business is good and doesn't want to overextend itself. I wonder how much longer until Boeing decides to go ahead with the project?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-roll ... ce=twitter
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randomdude83
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:37 am

I'm kinda hoping that they simply committed to an upcoming NMA Airbus competition instead. if not, it'll be a poor move from their end.
 
pabloeing
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:53 am

Another GE proyect for Boeing.....the B797
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:13 am

Well this is a surprise!

Considering the RR woes on the Trent, you'd think they would have gone all out to try and power the NMA.

Could it be that the revenue/resources being sapped from the Trent troubles have impacted development of UltraFan and now that engine schedule is awry?

That would make sense and explain why they've left the field open to GE and CFM.
 
HaulSudson
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:44 am

As W. East said on the call, in the strict time frame that Boeing demands, RR can't have the ultrafans mature enough for EIS.
The ultrafan program is geared toward other engines for now, not NMA size.
RR would have to commit a lot of extra resources for the NMA engine architecture.
Which from a commercial point seems too risky.
I think RR is right in being conservative, when from the outlook they are pushed in a corner, and esp. in a corner they didn't want to be in the first place.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:50 am

HaulSudson wrote:
As W. East said on the call, in the strict time frame that Boeing demands, RR can't have the ultrafans mature enough for EIS.
The ultrafan program is geared toward other engines for now, not NMA size.
RR would have to commit a lot of extra resources for the NMA engine architecture.
Which from a commercial point seems too risky.
I think RR is right in being conservative, when from the outlook they are pushed in a corner, and esp. in a corner they didn't want to be in the first place.


A smart move, I think. RR needs to solve their problems before embarking on another major project. Perhaps they judge that this NMA might not bring them what they hope for, perhaps Airbus is talking to them about an A330 replacement which would fill this niche. We don't know the real reasons behind this decision.
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:03 am

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47399609

Rolls has taken two big charges for 2018 including the Trent 900 winddown. The underlying business is healthy. They don't want another Trent 1000 debacle so will not bid on Boeing's proposed plane, which would also involve spending money on a paper plane at this stage. No design freeze to optimise for.

They are over the Trent 1000 hill and heading for the finish line. Replacement parts are heading for affected engines. Airlines are being compensated. Why add another stress point to the business at this stage, one whose profitability remains in question? Let's see if Boeing try to have them reverse that decision with better terms and dates.
 
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:12 am

Having an engine option adds cost for both the engine manufacturers and for the airframe manufacturers. It also reduces profits for the engine makers. It may be coming to the point where they all decide it is a luxury they can no longer afford.
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ELBOB
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:26 am

SEPilot wrote:
Having an engine option adds cost for both the engine manufacturers and for the airframe manufacturers. It also reduces profits for the engine makers. It may be coming to the point where they all decide it is a luxury they can no longer afford.


That's probably the most convincing argument against engine-on-type monopolies that I've ever read.
 
majano
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:44 am

A reminder that Boeing moved the launch date up by at least a year recently (to 2020), but kept the EIS time unchanged. In other words, all contractors and suppliers have had to wait a dozen more months for a final commitment by Boeing, but keep their level of investment unchanged if they are to meet the EIS deadline. Some will cope with that, whilst others will find it difficult. With this announcement, Rolls has just put themselves firmly in the latter group.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:11 pm

intotheair wrote:
I wonder how much longer until Boeing decides to go ahead with the project?


I think your missing a "whether" in there.

RR may have publically backed out to due timeline risk - but if the carrot was big enough they'd have jumped.

Small carrot, big risk = no go for RR.

Is the carrot big enough (and risk small enough) for Boeing & GE?


IMO, doubtful. Very doubtful.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:16 pm

Rolls Royce not going 'all out' is probably a good move here. The NMA (if it comes to fruition) could be the most successful airline program ever, but if RR hasn't got the resources then it can only be damaging for them. RR need to rightly focus on the A350 which is selling well, successful A330neo EIS and finalising for good the 787 issues so it can continue to sell large numbers of engines there.
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:17 pm

I expect Rolls Royce to be on the Airbus MOM. This gives them quite a few years to get their act together.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:47 pm

I find it mildly disconcerting that the prime manufacturers seem to be breaking down to duopolies: Boeing > GE, Airbus > RR. Sure there are exceptions, but it makes for strange bedfellows, like the rumored BA purchase of the dog (MHO) 777x, which does not have a hometown RR option available. And you KNOW BA would prefer a RR engine.. ..even if they can't say it.

Its also mildly ironic that airlines want to force the prime airframe makers to bid against each other, but are apparently locked in on engine choices....engines account for 35-40% of a new airplane. With only one engine per plane (no choice available), the airlines are locked in on 40% of the cost of a new plane due to inability to compete the engine bid. Certainly the certification costs of a second engine must be negligible when spread out over hundreds of airframes? I guess if it entails the development of another all-new engine, that is too big a burden to bear. But didn't Boeing say they wanted to use existing engine tech for this program? (Thereby limiting development costs and technical risk)

Lots of ironic and contradictory statements...
 
Amiga500
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:17 pm

SteelChair wrote:
But didn't Boeing say they wanted to use existing engine tech for this program? (Thereby limiting development costs and technical risk)


Oh yeah, its all supposedly existing technology for low risk.

But somehow going to be a "game changer" versus current aircraft.

Powerpoint Rangers at work.
 
rnav2dlrey
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:36 pm

there goes my theory that UA was delaying their A350 order (powered by RR) long enough so that UA could cancel the airbus order, but swap those XWB engines for the NMA engines to avoid penalties with RR.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:44 pm

intotheair wrote:
Rolls Royce says its business is good and doesn't want to overextend itself. I wonder how much longer until Boeing decides to go ahead with the project?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-roll ... ce=twitter

Hmm, the way I read the AvWeek report ( https://aviationweek.com/commercial-avi ... ne-contest , free subscription required ) it seems to me the issue is that RR isn't confident it could meet the development schedule, despite it participating in two rounds of bids for the program, which seems strange.

AvWeek has this quote:

Rolls-Royce Civil Aerospace president Chris Cholerton says it is withdrawing from the competition because “we do not want to promise to support Boeing’s new platform if we do not have every confidence that we can deliver to their schedule.” He adds that “we had begun its development before the Boeing opportunity emerged and it must undergo a rigorous testing regime before we offer it to customers, which we do not believe can be achieved within the NMA timeframe.”

We read earlier that RR had to move people off UltraFan to help with the T1000 Package C fiasco and an earlier layoff, and walking away from the NMA opportunity could be the cost for that.

AvWeek also reports:

Rolls adds that “meeting Boeing’s timetable would have required accelerating our demonstrator program and withdrawing from the process will enable us to have high confidence in engine maturity towards the end of the decade.”

No details have emerged of the Rolls proposal, though Aviation Week understands the final bid was configured around a design designated the RB.395 with a hollow-titanium fan rather than the more advanced composite design now undergoing final testing as part of the company’s Advanced Low Pressure System (ALPS) demonstrator program. The decision to opt for a metallic fan, which is believed to have been around 100 in. in diameter, was apparently taken as part of efforts to de-risk the proposal.

Dropping the CFRP fan (at least in the short term) and hitting maturity towards the end of the decade are not good signs based on what we were reading earlier about the UltraFan's progress.

https://aviationweek.com/future-aerospa ... trent-1000 however gives us a picture of their CFRP fan AND case demonstrator on a T1000 mule:

Image

However it says:

Results from ALPS will feed directly into the UltraFan demonstrator fan, the design of which will be guided using aerodynamic data collected over a series of subscale low-speed fan rig tests conducted at the Anecom AeroTest facility in Wildau, Germany.

So this is just their ALPS final configuration and not an UltraFan design.

TFA says:

The fan diameter of the UltraFan demonstrator is expected to be larger than the 118-in. dia. fan of the Trent XWB, currently the biggest engine in the company’s inventory. Senior Rolls officials have previously said fan diameters for the big new engine could be as large as 140 in. For comparison, the General Electric GE9X, currently the world’s largest engine dimensionally, has a 134-in. fan dia. On a large twin, Rolls estimates ALPS technology will save more than 1,500 lb. in weight per shipset.

Guess we won't really know till late in the next decade, sigh.
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:26 pm

Hmm... Boeing NMA was supposed to be launched 2025. Does this mean EIS of the A350neo (with Ultrafan engine) would also be not 2025 but later?

pabloeing wrote:
Another GE proyect for Boeing.....the B797


SEPilot wrote:
Having an engine option adds cost for both the engine manufacturers and for the airframe manufacturers. It also reduces profits for the engine makers. It may be coming to the point where they all decide it is a luxury they can no longer afford.


I thought P&W were still in the running for the NMA?
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:46 pm

Revelation wrote:
intotheair wrote:
Rolls Royce says its business is good and doesn't want to overextend itself. I wonder how much longer until Boeing decides to go ahead with the project?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-roll ... ce=twitter

Hmm, the way I read the AvWeek report ( https://aviationweek.com/commercial-avi ... ne-contest , free subscription required ) it seems to me the issue is that RR isn't confident it could meet the development schedule, despite it participating in two rounds of bids for the program, which seems strange.

AvWeek has this quote:

Rolls-Royce Civil Aerospace president Chris Cholerton says it is withdrawing from the competition because “we do not want to promise to support Boeing’s new platform if we do not have every confidence that we can deliver to their schedule.” He adds that “we had begun its development before the Boeing opportunity emerged and it must undergo a rigorous testing regime before we offer it to customers, which we do not believe can be achieved within the NMA timeframe.”

We read earlier that RR had to move people off UltraFan to help with the T1000 Package C fiasco and an earlier layoff, and walking away from the NMA opportunity could be the cost for that.

AvWeek also reports:

Rolls adds that “meeting Boeing’s timetable would have required accelerating our demonstrator program and withdrawing from the process will enable us to have high confidence in engine maturity towards the end of the decade.”

No details have emerged of the Rolls proposal, though Aviation Week understands the final bid was configured around a design designated the RB.395 with a hollow-titanium fan rather than the more advanced composite design now undergoing final testing as part of the company’s Advanced Low Pressure System (ALPS) demonstrator program. The decision to opt for a metallic fan, which is believed to have been around 100 in. in diameter, was apparently taken as part of efforts to de-risk the proposal.

Dropping the CFRP fan (at least in the short term) and hitting maturity towards the end of the decade are not good signs based on what we were reading earlier about the UltraFan's progress.

https://aviationweek.com/future-aerospa ... trent-1000 however gives us a picture of their CFRP fan AND case demonstrator on a T1000 mule:

Image

However it says:

Results from ALPS will feed directly into the UltraFan demonstrator fan, the design of which will be guided using aerodynamic data collected over a series of subscale low-speed fan rig tests conducted at the Anecom AeroTest facility in Wildau, Germany.

So this is just their ALPS final configuration and not an UltraFan design.

TFA says:

The fan diameter of the UltraFan demonstrator is expected to be larger than the 118-in. dia. fan of the Trent XWB, currently the biggest engine in the company’s inventory. Senior Rolls officials have previously said fan diameters for the big new engine could be as large as 140 in. For comparison, the General Electric GE9X, currently the world’s largest engine dimensionally, has a 134-in. fan dia. On a large twin, Rolls estimates ALPS technology will save more than 1,500 lb. in weight per shipset.

Guess we won't really know till late in the next decade, sigh.


Great summary. Thank you.
 
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par13del
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:51 pm

Correct me if I am wrong and forgot a statement, but I thought that the 797 was to be powered by existing tech, if that was the case RR withdrawal would be in line with them not having the resources, not that the Ultra fan would not be ready.
Last edited by par13del on Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:58 pm

Revelation wrote:
Guess we won't really know till late in the next decade, sigh.

Too bad, and it also does not bode well for an A350neo or stretch, cause Rolls are the only game in town there.

Future HBS Case Study for sure.
 
Noshow
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:03 pm

So CFM is to build the NMA engine or GE maybe as risk sharing partner?
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:11 pm

Won't both the 787 and 350 be looking for new engines sometime after 2025? Also Airbus is likely to launch an NMA a little bigger than the 797, but EIS in the late 20s. RR has a lot of market possibilities. And for now lessons to learn, and profits to make.
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:26 pm

SEPilot wrote:
Having an engine option adds cost for both the engine manufacturers and for the airframe manufacturers. It also reduces profits for the engine makers. It may be coming to the point where they all decide it is a luxury they can no longer afford.


Having two competing engine manufacturers benefits airlines as competition will improve prices and terms for them.

SteelChair wrote:
I find it mildly disconcerting that the prime manufacturers seem to be breaking down to duopolies: Boeing > GE, Airbus > RR


I couldn't agree more. I don't think it's a coincidence that the three most popular widebodies of all time (A330 + 747 + 777) had three engine options available. It's a real shame that no current generation program has three OEM offerings.

Erebus wrote:
I don't see such a market being big enough for 2 new aircraft programmes. The first mover will get most of it and that looks to be Boeing.

Most of that cake has already been eaten by the A321neo.

N328KF wrote:
That's an extremely fair point, but it is obvious that GE/CFM have endured the engine manufacturer crises better than their peers.


GE/CFM has also been much better at controlling the narrative about engine problems.
First to fly the 787-9
 
FlyHPN
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:30 pm

Wonder if this will change Delta's stance on the NMA considering their partnership with RR.
 
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:33 pm

Noshow wrote:
So CFM is to build the NMA engine or GE maybe as risk sharing partner?

At end of 2018, CFM (not GE), PW and RR all made NMA engine proposals to Boeing.

GE has said for a while now that the offering for NMA will be a CFM product.

PW is offering a GTF derivative.

Boeing has talked a lot about wanting NMA to be low risk.

That to me is a clue that PW is a long shot to get on to the program.
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planecane
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:37 pm

zkojq"

[quote="Erebus wrote:
I don't see such a market being big enough for 2 new aircraft programmes. The first mover will get most of it and that looks to be Boeing.

Most of that cake has already been eaten by the A321neo.
[/quote]

Based on all reported info, the Boeing MOM is both larger and longer ranged than the A321NEO. It is targeted at a different market.
 
Noshow
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:43 pm

The bigger the NMA is sized the less it will provide the DNA for some post-737-family.
 
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Polot
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:50 pm

FlyHPN wrote:
Wonder if this will change Delta's stance on the NMA considering their partnership with RR.

Delta also has partnerships with PW and I believe CFM. They want as many partnerships as possible to increase TechOp’s reach and customer base.
 
2175301
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:54 pm

planecane wrote:
zkojq wrote:

Erebus wrote:
I don't see such a market being big enough for 2 new aircraft programmes. The first mover will get most of it and that looks to be Boeing.

Most of that cake has already been eaten by the A321neo.


Based on all reported info, the Boeing MOM is both larger and longer ranged than the A321NEO. It is targeted at a different market.


Agreed: The A321 will only compete for the bottom section of the 797 market - if the 797 is launched. Airbus will not have a direct response or a MOM aircraft as the market is not big enough for 2 clean sheet programs - and the 1st mover gets the lions share if they try anyway. No reason to spend 10-15 Billion for an aircraft 5 years behind the market leader if you can never expect to recover the development cost - much less make a profit.

I personally believe that RR withdrawing indicates that they are so busy dealing with their other issues that they don't feel they have the resources.

The comments about using the Ultrafan - are not in accordance with the NMA plans for essentially using existing tech (perhaps slight improvement).

I find their comments about needing to the end of the decade to mature the ultrafan design to be a realistic timeline. I always suspected that 2025 introduction for the Ultrafan, and Airbus plans based on that, was too soon.

Have a great day,
 
bigjku
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:57 pm

2175301 wrote:
planecane wrote:
zkojq wrote:


Most of that cake has already been eaten by the A321neo.


Based on all reported info, the Boeing MOM is both larger and longer ranged than the A321NEO. It is targeted at a different market.


Agreed: The A321 will only compete for the bottom section of the 797 market - if the 797 is launched. Airbus will not have a direct response or a MOM aircraft as the market is not big enough for 2 clean sheet programs - and the 1st mover gets the lions share if they try anyway. No reason to spend 10-15 Billion for an aircraft 5 years behind the market leader if you can never expect to recover the development cost - much less make a profit.

I personally believe that RR withdrawing indicates that they are so busy dealing with their other issues that they don't feel they have the resources.

The comments about using the Ultrafan - are not in accordance with the NMA plans for essentially using existing tech (perhaps slight improvement).

I find their comments about needing to the end of the decade to mature the ultrafan design to be a realistic timeline. I always suspected that 2025 introduction for the Ultrafan, and Airbus plans based on that, was too soon.

Have a great day,


Really depends on what Ultra Fan is. I thought I remembered reading they were backing off some of the advances on the thing here recently?
 
KICT
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:59 pm

Finally some good RR-related news!
People are saying. Believe me.
 
ScottB
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:03 pm

zkojq wrote:
I don't think it's a coincidence that the three most popular widebodies of all time (A330 + 747 + 777) had three engine options available.


Except that the most successful variant of the 777 by far, accounting for over half of deliveries to date, had a single-source engine.

Revelation wrote:
Dropping the CFRP fan (at least in the short term) and hitting maturity towards the end of the decade are not good signs based on what we were reading earlier about the UltraFan's progress.


So... the apparent lengthy slip in the UltraFan timeline from mid-2020s to "hitting maturity towards the end of the decade" clearly isn't a development which RR management is just now figuring out, given the talk we've also heard about dropping the variable fan blade pitch planned for the engine to derisk the project. I have to wonder if the UltraFan delay played a role in the recently-announced cancellation of the A380 program, given that the UltraFan was the likely front-runner in any future re-engine (and the probability that an A380neo wouldn't be the launch program, so the neo might not reach customers before 2030).
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:04 pm

KICT wrote:
Finally some good RR-related news!

Not saying it is or it is not good news, but why do you say that?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:12 pm

Noshow wrote:
The bigger the NMA is sized the less it will provide the DNA for some post-737-family.

Yet we know the much bigger 787 is providing much of the DNA for the NMA, and even the 77X wing tech is going to flow down to NMA.

Boeing's also saying the big push is really going to be on design and manufacturing technology, and on restructuring its relationship with the supply chain.

They will do all of the above knowing that a new small aircraft will be needed in the near future.
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WayexTDI
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:16 pm

ScottB wrote:
zkojq wrote:
I don't think it's a coincidence that the three most popular widebodies of all time (A330 + 747 + 777) had three engine options available.


Except that the most successful variant of the 777 by far, accounting for over half of deliveries to date, had a single-source engine.

Even more than that.

Unless I'm wrong, the 777-300ER, 777-200LR & 777F are single-source engine (GE90); in all, that's (as of January 31, 2019), 1,014 aircraft (respectively, 799, 59 & 156) out of 1,584 777's delivered => 64% of all 777's delivered were single-source engine.
And, the remaining aircraft to be delivered (45 777-300ER's, 1 777-200LR's & 57 777F's) are all single-source engine; when the 777 is all said and done (prior to switching to the 777X - which will also be single-source engine), 1,117 aircraft (out of 1,687) will be delivered with the GE90 by default => 66%.
 
bigjku
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:23 pm

Revelation wrote:
Noshow wrote:
The bigger the NMA is sized the less it will provide the DNA for some post-737-family.

Yet we know the much bigger 787 is providing much of the DNA for the NMA, and even the 77X wing tech is going to flow down to NMA.

Boeing's also saying the big push is really going to be on design and manufacturing technology, and on restructuring its relationship with the supply chain.

They will do all of the above knowing that a new small aircraft will be needed in the near future.


To this end I also suspect the avionics and other sub-systems to have a lot of flow down from NMA to NSA. If that is indeed the plan NMA will get all new avionics that the EMB people will be heavily involved in doing with less outsourcing being done.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:38 pm

frigatebird wrote:
Hmm... Boeing NMA was supposed to be launched 2025. Does this mean EIS of the A350neo (with Ultrafan engine) would also be not 2025 but later?

pabloeing wrote:
Another GE proyect for Boeing.....the B797


SEPilot wrote:
Having an engine option adds cost for both the engine manufacturers and for the airframe manufacturers. It also reduces profits for the engine makers. It may be coming to the point where they all decide it is a luxury they can no longer afford.


I thought P&W were still in the running for the NMA?

Right now, I'd bet 65% chance CFM
35% chance Pratt.

Pratt is bringing forward the 3.5:1 gearbox and new compressor tech that is low risk.

At this time, I wouldn't rule out IAE being the platform (RR with Pratt). However, Pratt's contractual commitments with MTU complicate the situation.

Both CFM and Pratt have declared sole source only. Boeing wants too much for another $3 billion+ to be invested and split revenue.

The risk of CFM awarded the contract is Boeing is beholden to GE. There will not be a platform, excluding the legacy 767 and RR on the 787, with any other engine but a GE/CFM product from Boeing.

Pratt has the lower fuel burn on the NEO. Reports since November are that the latest fix works (but it will take another 9+ months to manufacture enough parts to remove the old parts from the fleet).

Part of the issue is both Pratt and RR own shops that have capacity to make the most production limited parts (once both resolve current issues, in 9 months for Pratt, in 15 months for RR). They both own technology they just won't share. CFM is good, but in some ways just better as masking errors.

Lightsaber
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Revelation
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:41 pm

ScottB wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Dropping the CFRP fan (at least in the short term) and hitting maturity towards the end of the decade are not good signs based on what we were reading earlier about the UltraFan's progress.

So... the apparent lengthy slip in the UltraFan timeline from mid-2020s to "hitting maturity towards the end of the decade" clearly isn't a development which RR management is just now figuring out, given the talk we've also heard about dropping the variable fan blade pitch planned for the engine to derisk the project. I have to wonder if the UltraFan delay played a role in the recently-announced cancellation of the A380 program, given that the UltraFan was the likely front-runner in any future re-engine (and the probability that an A380neo wouldn't be the launch program, so the neo might not reach customers before 2030).

Yes, I think all of the above, plus the one year slip in T7000 for A330neo, can all be traced back to the T1000 Package C debacle.

RR said they were having problems finding test cells to do to all the new development testing they were committed to for T7000 as well as testing all the engines they were having to rebuild, some of which were not just due to bad boroscope examinations but some were due to destructive failures.

It's hard to picture how they could commit to things such as an A380 T900 PIP or an A380neo or a full blown UltraFan development effort to be ready for NMA and/or A350neo by 2025 in the midst of these physical constraints along with dealing with the financial impact (i.e. having announced layoffs earlier and now announcing a GBP 3B loss for 2018).
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WayexTDI
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:47 pm

Revelation wrote:
RR said they were having problems finding test cells to do to all the new development testing they were committed to for T7000 as well as testing all the engines they were having to rebuild, some of which were not just due to bad boroscope examinations but some were due to destructive failures.

Well, they have an MRO partner that just built a brand new test cell and I'm sure they'd love the extra work: Delta Tech Ops.
Is it going to happen? Who knows...
 
musman9853
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:48 pm

frigatebird wrote:
Hmm... Boeing NMA was supposed to be launched 2025. Does this mean EIS of the A350neo (with Ultrafan engine) would also be not 2025 but later?

pabloeing wrote:
Another GE proyect for Boeing.....the B797


SEPilot wrote:
Having an engine option adds cost for both the engine manufacturers and for the airframe manufacturers. It also reduces profits for the engine makers. It may be coming to the point where they all decide it is a luxury they can no longer afford.


I thought P&W were still in the running for the NMA?


all 3 oems were invited to participate in the program. so they're probably still in the running, but considering all the issues they've been having for the a320neo gtf, it might be better to just go with a scaled up LEAP.
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LDRA
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:53 pm

CFM's offering has to be flawless. With sole source engine, it could drag down NMA program if there is issue.

Is CFM's proposal a derivative of LEAP? Curious how they control tech risk
 
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william
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:02 pm

musman9853 wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
Hmm... Boeing NMA was supposed to be launched 2025. Does this mean EIS of the A350neo (with Ultrafan engine) would also be not 2025 but later?

pabloeing wrote:
Another GE proyect for Boeing.....the B797


SEPilot wrote:
Having an engine option adds cost for both the engine manufacturers and for the airframe manufacturers. It also reduces profits for the engine makers. It may be coming to the point where they all decide it is a luxury they can no longer afford.


I thought P&W were still in the running for the NMA?


all 3 oems were invited to participate in the program. so they're probably still in the running, but considering all the issues they've been having for the a320neo gtf, it might be better to just go with a scaled up LEAP.


Pratt's issues are behind it, why would they not want to be part of this project? And Boeing would most likely want a GTF offering for this product.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthomp ... d4c8d7e94e
 
bigjku
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:02 pm

lightsaber wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
Hmm... Boeing NMA was supposed to be launched 2025. Does this mean EIS of the A350neo (with Ultrafan engine) would also be not 2025 but later?

pabloeing wrote:
Another GE proyect for Boeing.....the B797


SEPilot wrote:
Having an engine option adds cost for both the engine manufacturers and for the airframe manufacturers. It also reduces profits for the engine makers. It may be coming to the point where they all decide it is a luxury they can no longer afford.


I thought P&W were still in the running for the NMA?

Right now, I'd bet 65% chance CFM
35% chance Pratt.

Pratt is bringing forward the 3.5:1 gearbox and new compressor tech that is low risk.

At this time, I wouldn't rule out IAE being the platform (RR with Pratt). However, Pratt's contractual commitments with MTU complicate the situation.

Both CFM and Pratt have declared sole source only. Boeing wants too much for another $3 billion+ to be invested and split revenue.

The risk of CFM awarded the contract is Boeing is beholden to GE. There will not be a platform, excluding the legacy 767 and RR on the 787, with any other engine but a GE/CFM product from Boeing.

Pratt has the lower fuel burn on the NEO. Reports since November are that the latest fix works (but it will take another 9+ months to manufacture enough parts to remove the old parts from the fleet).

Part of the issue is both Pratt and RR own shops that have capacity to make the most production limited parts (once both resolve current issues, in 9 months for Pratt, in 15 months for RR). They both own technology they just won't share. CFM is good, but in some ways just better as masking errors.

Lightsaber


I keep hearing (including today) that Boeing is interested in offering two engines. But I suspect you are right Boeing will have to pay a bit (or a lot)if they want to do that. The people I talk to are more customer facing than financial.

While I like CFM I am quietly pulling for Pratt to win or at least split the program. IMHO Boeing should go so far as to defray some of the funding cost of each engine program given that it will be looking to capture some of the revenue cycle of each engine.

I also don’t think GTF Mark 2 will be nearly as risky as Mark 1. A lot of data to work the bugs out.
 
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:03 pm

If I’m Boeing, I’d want an engine that has great opportunity for improvement down the line. I feel that PW/RR have this. I really don’t know about CFM being able to compete with their GTF without having one of their own.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:07 pm

LDRA wrote:
CFM's offering has to be flawless. With sole source engine, it could drag down NMA program if there is issue.

Is CFM's proposal a derivative of LEAP? Curious how they control tech risk

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ne-446993/ says:

A CFM International engine for Boeing’s New Mid-market Airplane (NMA) would be a growth version of the Leap series turbofan, suggesting a balance between a derivative and a clean-sheet design, says GE Aviation chief executive David Joyce.

It will be bigger,” Joyce told a JP Morgan investment conference on 14 March. “It’s advancing [on the Leap technology] not a full generation but a half-generation.”

This has led some to refer to the engine as "LEAP 1.5".

If GE Aviation's CEO is saying this, I think you can be pretty confident in it.

I also think it's safe to assume some if not much of the risk is being retired as GE tests GE9X on 777X.

It's being pretty widely suggested that GE's CMC technology from GE9X will flow down to the LEAP 1.5.

Keep in mind that CFM partner Safran is also a significant 777X partner ( https://www.safran-group.com/media/2014 ... e9x-engine ).

It's not a great LEAP (see what I did there) to see the same players will be involved in the NMA LEAP engine.
Last edited by Revelation on Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
mxaxai
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:09 pm

zkojq wrote:
N328KF wrote:
That's an extremely fair point, but it is obvious that GE/CFM have endured the engine manufacturer crises better than their peers.


GE/CFM has also been much better at controlling the narrative about engine problems.

I'd rather say that GE & CFM have been better at recognizing and mitigating their problems before they create operational impacts. We didn't see a fleet of gliders waiting for CFM engines nor were many GE powered birds grounded while waiting for replacement engines.

Revelation wrote:
Boeing's also saying the big push is really going to be on design and manufacturing technology, and on restructuring its relationship with the supply chain.

"restructuring"
pls gib new technology for less monies; deliver yesterday. risk is all yours. BR, Boeing


No wonder RR decided to leave. But the question is how competitive a LEAP-powered 797 can be against a LEAP-powered A321 or 737-10. Or a simple, risk-free PW1000 derivative, for that matter. And while RR's ultrafan missed the 797, it'll likely find its way onto other A or B products by end of the decade.
The 797 could end up like the A340-200/300: A unique market, an engineering marvel and yet limited by its old engines. Boeing really has to get the airframe right.
 
bhill
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:10 pm

Prolly a smart idea...one L1011 design issue is enough.
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WayexTDI
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:12 pm

bigjku wrote:
I also don’t think GTF Mark 2 will be nearly as risky as Mark 1. A lot of data to work the bugs out.

Weren't most of the issues on the P&W GTF Mark 1 not linked to the GTF itself but to the core of the jet engine?
I want to believe that P&W have learned from their mistakes; recent past has not shown that it seems.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:14 pm

I always said, if Boeing is serious with the 2025 EiS the Ultrafan is a non-starter.

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