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zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:36 am

DavidByrne wrote:
777ER wrote:
I'm suspecting next weeks announcement will include the retirement of the Q300s.

Do you have some actual knowledge on this, or is it just speculation?


Apart from the 744s being replaced by the 77W, NZ’s strategy over the last 10 years seems to have been upscale to simplify and strength growth.

Example:
133 seat 733s replaced by 171 seat A320s
1900Ds axed and routes, cover by Q300s (Addtional 72-600s introduced to allow the Q300s to roll down)
763s replaced by 789/
A320CEOs starting to be replaced by A321NEOs.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7535
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:14 am

777ER wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Could the fleet review include any hints of the Q300s which are now approaching the 10 year old mark...

Crazy how a few of the Q300's still carry the old livery, IMO - what's the reasoning behind that?

Cheers,

C.

I'm suspecting next weeks announcement will include the retirement of the Q300s. This will provide an excellent chance for JQ IMHO to pick up some additional Q300s or get some Q400s from QF and expand.


Which could be a reason for NZ to hold on to the Q300s as long as they are economically viable.

They have gone from 8 types 5 years ago, 744, 777, 763, 733, A320, ATR, Q300, BEH, to 5 types 777, 787, A321/320, ATR, Q300 although the ATR 72-500/600 arent type rated so once the 500s go it will allow further flexibility.

This is why I see the future as likely A320/321, 789/78J, ATR72-600.

3 common types, 3 pilot pools.

This current exercise I think is more a fleet/network review to cut costs and move aircraft around as needed to maximise profits. They did something similar in 2012, I remember PER going 772 from 763 etc at the time.
 
aerohottie
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:58 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
777ER wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
Crazy how a few of the Q300's still carry the old livery, IMO - what's the reasoning behind that?

Cheers,

C.

I'm suspecting next weeks announcement will include the retirement of the Q300s. This will provide an excellent chance for JQ IMHO to pick up some additional Q300s or get some Q400s from QF and expand.


Which could be a reason for NZ to hold on to the Q300s as long as they are economically viable.

They have gone from 8 types 5 years ago, 744, 777, 763, 733, A320, ATR, Q300, BEH, to 5 types 777, 787, A321/320, ATR, Q300 although the ATR 72-500/600 arent type rated so once the 500s go it will allow further flexibility.

This is why I see the future as likely A320/321, 789/78J, ATR72-600.

3 common types, 3 pilot pools.

This current exercise I think is more a fleet/network review to cut costs and move aircraft around as needed to maximise profits. They did something similar in 2012, I remember PER going 772 from 763 etc at the time.

I agree, but I think they could get other variants of the same type to give them flexibility.

B78J/789/788, A321/320, ATR72/42
What?
 
JQ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:06 am

aerohottie wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
777ER wrote:
I'm suspecting next weeks announcement will include the retirement of the Q300s. This will provide an excellent chance for JQ IMHO to pick up some additional Q300s or get some Q400s from QF and expand.


Which could be a reason for NZ to hold on to the Q300s as long as they are economically viable.

They have gone from 8 types 5 years ago, 744, 777, 763, 733, A320, ATR, Q300, BEH, to 5 types 777, 787, A321/320, ATR, Q300 although the ATR 72-500/600 arent type rated so once the 500s go it will allow further flexibility.

This is why I see the future as likely A320/321, 789/78J, ATR72-600.

3 common types, 3 pilot pools.

This current exercise I think is more a fleet/network review to cut costs and move aircraft around as needed to maximise profits. They did something similar in 2012, I remember PER going 772 from 763 etc at the time.

I agree, but I think they could get other variants of the same type to give them flexibility.

B78J/789/788, A321/320, ATR72/42


Why have the 77W been left out? are they being retired early?
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:28 am

aerohottie wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
777ER wrote:
I'm suspecting next weeks announcement will include the retirement of the Q300s. This will provide an excellent chance for JQ IMHO to pick up some additional Q300s or get some Q400s from QF and expand.


Which could be a reason for NZ to hold on to the Q300s as long as they are economically viable.

They have gone from 8 types 5 years ago, 744, 777, 763, 733, A320, ATR, Q300, BEH, to 5 types 777, 787, A321/320, ATR, Q300 although the ATR 72-500/600 arent type rated so once the 500s go it will allow further flexibility.

This is why I see the future as likely A320/321, 789/78J, ATR72-600.

3 common types, 3 pilot pools.

This current exercise I think is more a fleet/network review to cut costs and move aircraft around as needed to maximise profits. They did something similar in 2012, I remember PER going 772 from 763 etc at the time.

I agree, but I think they could get other variants of the same type to give them flexibility.

B78J/789/788, A321/320, ATR72/42


788 operating costs I believe are similar to 789 while 789 has approx 40/50 more seats, I don’t think they will get 788s.

ATR 42 is a possibility but again it comes down to operating costs, if it is more efficient at say 50 seats than an ATR 72 with 50 seats occupied and 18 empty then it has a chance, otherwise I think they will go all ATR72-600 and have to drop a few routes where the ATR can’t operate.

JQ321 wrote:
aerohottie wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

Which could be a reason for NZ to hold on to the Q300s as long as they are economically viable.

They have gone from 8 types 5 years ago, 744, 777, 763, 733, A320, ATR, Q300, BEH, to 5 types 777, 787, A321/320, ATR, Q300 although the ATR <a href="tel:72-500/600">72-500/600</a> arent type rated so once the 500s go it will allow further flexibility.

This is why I see the future as likely A320/321, 789/78J, ATR72-600.

3 common types, 3 pilot pools.

This current exercise I think is more a fleet/network review to cut costs and move aircraft around as needed to maximise profits. They did something similar in 2012, I remember PER going 772 from 763 etc at the time.

I agree, but I think they could get other variants of the same type to give them flexibility.

B78J/789/788, A321/320, ATR72/42


Why have the 77W been left out? are they being retired early?



I’m talking beyond the 77W here 7-8 years time atleast. What they choose as a 772 replacement shortly will have a large impact on the 77W replacement in a few years, the 77W is a beast and again the market will dictate how long they keep a fleet of 7 77Ws, fuel prices etc.
 
777ER
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 5:20 am

DavidByrne wrote:
777ER wrote:
I'm suspecting next weeks announcement will include the retirement of the Q300s.

Do you have some actual knowledge on this, or is it just speculation?

What does suspecting mean? Obviously I don't have proof hence why I said suspecting!

NZ have upgauged their fleet effectively over the last few years and have openly talked about retiring the Q300s and just having the ATR fleet. I can see an advantage in retiring the Q300s and operating an ATR42/72 fleet combo. Some routes don't need the AT72 but can still easily fill a AT42 and maintain several flights a day compared to loosing flights with an AT72 operating.
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ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:40 am

777ER wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
777ER wrote:
I'm suspecting next weeks announcement will include the retirement of the Q300s.

Do you have some actual knowledge on this, or is it just speculation?

What does suspecting mean? Obviously I don't have proof hence why I said suspecting!

NZ have upgauged their fleet effectively over the last few years and have openly talked about retiring the Q300s and just having the ATR fleet. I can see an advantage in retiring the Q300s and operating an ATR42/72 fleet combo. Some routes don't need the AT72 but can still easily fill a AT42 and maintain several flights a day compared to loosing flights with an AT72 operating.



I can’t say I am aware of NZ having said any such thing around the ATR42, it does make a lot of sense but as I said I feel it comes down to operating costs, if the ATR72 can be operated on a lot of the Q300 routes they may go down that track.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:53 am

zkncj wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
777ER wrote:
I'm suspecting next weeks announcement will include the retirement of the Q300s.

Do you have some actual knowledge on this, or is it just speculation?


Apart from the 744s being replaced by the 77W, NZ’s strategy over the last 10 years seems to have been upscale to simplify and strength growth.

Example:
133 seat 733s replaced by 171 seat A320s
1900Ds axed and routes, cover by Q300s (Addtional 72-600s introduced to allow the Q300s to roll down)
763s replaced by 789/
A320CEOs starting to be replaced by A321NEOs.


While I won't comment on the 'strategy' I'll raise the objection here that

1. There was no cost efficient 133 seat aircraft, while the A318/9 and 737-600/700 were options to replace the 733 the cost per seat and market growth allowed the airline to purchase the higher capacity A320 and consider the 738. This became the best investment for NZ.
2. There were no suitable replacements for the 1900D and the economics didn't stack up for a small fleet to serve poor performing routes which showed limited long term potential. Some routes got up-gauged when they wouldn't have otherwise been.
3. The 787 and A330 were the only airframes in the market with comparable size and range to replace the 767.
4. The A321 is actually offering Tasman capacity similar to the 762 & 763, so against this theory and a 'customer issue' which has been forgotten is NZ's move from twin-aisle to single-aisle for a lot of their Tasman flights in the early 2000's.

I'm not saying you're right or wrong, but the rationale you provide behind it doesn't in it itself suggest this is true and maybe this is just a coincidence.
 
777ER
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 7:39 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
777ER wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Do you have some actual knowledge on this, or is it just speculation?

What does suspecting mean? Obviously I don't have proof hence why I said suspecting!

NZ have upgauged their fleet effectively over the last few years and have openly talked about retiring the Q300s and just having the ATR fleet. I can see an advantage in retiring the Q300s and operating an ATR42/72 fleet combo. Some routes don't need the AT72 but can still easily fill a AT42 and maintain several flights a day compared to loosing flights with an AT72 operating.



I can’t say I am aware of NZ having said any such thing around the ATR42, it does make a lot of sense but as I said I feel it comes down to operating costs, if the ATR72 can be operated on a lot of the Q300 routes they may go down that track.

No NZ certainly hasn't stated the ATR42 as replacing the Q300, but they have stated moving to only an ATR fleet for regional. If that means the -42 also, then we will have to wait and see when the Q300 retirement is announced
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Flown: 1900D,S340,Q300,AT72-5/6,DC3,CR2/7,E145,E70/75/90,A319/20/21,A332/3,A359,A380,F100,B717,B733/4/8/9,B742/4,B752/3,B763,B772/3, B789
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NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 7:48 am

777ER wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
777ER wrote:
What does suspecting mean? Obviously I don't have proof hence why I said suspecting!

NZ have upgauged their fleet effectively over the last few years and have openly talked about retiring the Q300s and just having the ATR fleet. I can see an advantage in retiring the Q300s and operating an ATR42/72 fleet combo. Some routes don't need the AT72 but can still easily fill a AT42 and maintain several flights a day compared to loosing flights with an AT72 operating.



I can’t say I am aware of NZ having said any such thing around the ATR42, it does make a lot of sense but as I said I feel it comes down to operating costs, if the ATR72 can be operated on a lot of the Q300 routes they may go down that track.

No NZ certainly hasn't stated the ATR42 as replacing the Q300, but they have stated moving to only an ATR fleet for regional. If that means the -42 also, then we will have to wait and see when the Q300 retirement is announced


This whole topic amuses me. Where has this come from?

Are we assuming the -42 will replace the Q300 based on the fact alone it's made by the same manufacturer as their -72 aircraft and they're up for replacement as they're 10 years old and some are not repainted?
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:14 am

NZ6 wrote:
777ER wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:


I can’t say I am aware of NZ having said any such thing around the ATR42, it does make a lot of sense but as I said I feel it comes down to operating costs, if the ATR72 can be operated on a lot of the Q300 routes they may go down that track.

No NZ certainly hasn't stated the ATR42 as replacing the Q300, but they have stated moving to only an ATR fleet for regional. If that means the -42 also, then we will have to wait and see when the Q300 retirement is announced


This whole topic amuses me. Where has this come from?

Are we assuming the -42 will replace the Q300 based on the fact alone it's made by the same manufacturer as their -72 aircraft and they're up for replacement as they're 10 years old and some are not repainted?


TBH though what else is out there in the 50 seat category?

The Q300 has an average age of around 12 years delivered 2005-2009 IIRC? Like I said earlier I’d expect them to operate them for as long as it’s economically viable, so id imagine they will be around another 6-8 years before they start replacing them? And 10-12 years until they replace all 23 of them. But again it may be more cost effective to replace them sooner?

Unless something spectacular comes on the market in the 50 seat category I think there’s a very real chance myself that they would go all ATR 72-600 for regional.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:23 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
777ER wrote:
No NZ certainly hasn't stated the ATR42 as replacing the Q300, but they have stated moving to only an ATR fleet for regional. If that means the -42 also, then we will have to wait and see when the Q300 retirement is announced


This whole topic amuses me. Where has this come from?

Are we assuming the -42 will replace the Q300 based on the fact alone it's made by the same manufacturer as their -72 aircraft and they're up for replacement as they're 10 years old and some are not repainted?


TBH though what else is out there in the 50 seat category?

The Q300 has an average age of around 12 years delivered 2005-2009 IIRC? Like I said earlier I’d expect them to operate them for as long as it’s economically viable, so id imagine they will be around another 6-8 years before they start replacing them? And 10-12 years until they replace all 23 of them. But again it may be more cost effective to replace them sooner?

Unless something spectacular comes on the market in the 50 seat category I think there’s a very real chance myself that they would go all ATR 72-600 for regional.


NZ may get 16-18 years out of them and only then replace them with new versions of the same thing depending what's in the market in 2-4 years time... I've not heard anything in the rumour mill and suspect they'll sort the 772 and 77W first. With the A320 sported, it's next in line for an announcement. My guess 2020+ before we see anytihng.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:54 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

This whole topic amuses me. Where has this come from?

Are we assuming the -42 will replace the Q300 based on the fact alone it's made by the same manufacturer as their -72 aircraft and they're up for replacement as they're 10 years old and some are not repainted?


TBH though what else is out there in the 50 seat category?

The Q300 has an average age of around 12 years delivered 2005-2009 IIRC? Like I said earlier I’d expect them to operate them for as long as it’s economically viable, so id imagine they will be around another 6-8 years before they start replacing them? And 10-12 years until they replace all 23 of them. But again it may be more cost effective to replace them sooner?

Unless something spectacular comes on the market in the 50 seat category I think there’s a very real chance myself that they would go all ATR 72-600 for regional.


NZ may get 16-18 years out of them and only then replace them with new versions of the same thing depending what's in the market in 2-4 years time... I've not heard anything in the rumour mill and suspect they'll sort the 772 and 77W first. With the A320 sported, it's next in line for an announcement. My guess 2020+ before we see anytihng.


Didn’t NZ get the last Q300s off the line? Next step up is the Q400 which is a 72 seater? Identical to the ATR 72.

I agree with you that we need to stop thinking that X aircraft is 10 years old therefore it needs to go, we don’t live in SIN or DXB where things depreciate faster.

The 772 replacement has been talked about though for probably 3 years and the oldest is still not yet 13.5 years old however most of them will see 17-18 years of service or there abouts + - for some depending on the market IMO, they could retire 1-2 early if the market drops or fuel rises dramatically or likewise they are still a good aircraft in the current environment so some maybe could stay slightly longer.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:06 am

I don't see the Q300s going anywhere for at least another 7-8 years. In that regard, they probably won't be replaced by anything currently available.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:14 am

aerorobnz wrote:
I don't see the Q300s going anywhere for at least another 7-8 years. In that regard, they probably won't be replaced by anything currently available.

It's been 6 years already, and there are still so many with the teal scheme. If they're sticking around for another 8 years, you'd imagine they'd re-paint them?

Cheers,

C.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:34 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
aerorobnz wrote:
I don't see the Q300s going anywhere for at least another 7-8 years. In that regard, they probably won't be replaced by anything currently available.

It's been 6 years already, and there are still so many with the teal scheme. If they're sticking around for another 8 years, you'd imagine they'd re-paint them?

Cheers,

C.

Not necessarily, the last of the 772s only just got repainted relatively recently and they were flying their brand internationally. From what I understand TSV didn't have repaint slots due to high demand and some Qs deferred as a result. Repainting doesn't always mean much as far as retirements, NZ had ATRs they repainted, but they got rid of them sooner than the ones that weren't. I expect they will repaint the remaining Qs once all 8 -600s remaining are delivered. I think there is a high likelihood the fleet may be reduced to the point that they only serve the smaller regionals just as the BEHs were.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:40 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
Didn’t NZ get the last Q300s off the line? Next step up is the Q400 which is a 72 seater? Identical to the ATR 72.

I agree with you that we need to stop thinking that X aircraft is 10 years old therefore it needs to go, we don’t live in SIN or DXB where things depreciate faster.

The 772 replacement has been talked about though for probably 3 years and the oldest is still not yet 13.5 years old however most of them will see 17-18 years of service or there abouts + - for some depending on the market IMO, they could retire 1-2 early if the market drops or fuel rises dramatically or likewise they are still a good aircraft in the current environment so some maybe could stay slightly longer.


Well, it's not currently in production but for 25 firm orders would they roll out a few more?

Realistically, probably not and as others said overnight, they'll probably be replaced by something else at that time.

I don't follow this topic a lot so I'm not aware of any rumours for new regional types in that 50 seat size, All I'm aware of is movement around the regional jets such as the A200, Mitsubishi MRJ's, Comac ARJ, Sukhoi Superjet. They are all up over 80+ seats. NZ would need something closer to the 50 seat bracket.

NZ could look to build markets long term and switch out some Q300's for more ATR72's.. leaving a very small aging fleet of Q300's.

Adding an extra 16 seats per service in most markets in the next 10 years doesn't seem too hard.

There's no real reason the Q300 couldn't do 20-22 years.
 
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hic787
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:27 pm

Search underway for ZK-EAP, operated by Ardmore flying school, in the Kaimanawa Ranges. Took off from PMR for TUO yesterday evening and lost contact while descending for Taupo.

https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national ... ve-on-time
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:09 pm

Also, AC still has 30year old DH8s flying alongside brand new Q400s. They have very long lives left if they are still fit for purpose
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DavidJ08
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:44 pm

ATR was featured in a Flight International article recently with the title "Heading for monopoly?" as Bombardier is selling the Dash 8 programme to Longview / Viking Air, who have promised continued production and support of the Q400 at this point, but no word on future development. My understanding is they will receive all the assets and intellectual property of the Dash 8 series which includes the smaller 100, 200, and 300 series which are not in production, so it is theoretically possible for them to produce Q300s in the future but no such intent has been expressed so far. At this point in time, it looks like the only western supplier of a 50ish seat turboprop would be ATR with the ATR42, and, being somewhat of a niche market, it doesn't look like there's anything in development at this time.
 
Gasman
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 24, 2019 11:17 am

Sad news.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/111510 ... nawa-range

Mood was very subdued out at NZAR yesterday. Weather at the time suggests that this was the same mechanism that has claimed so many New Zealand lives, from multitudes of GA crashes right thorough to the one that claimed 257 lives on Ross Island - ie, persisting inappropriately with VFR below cloud.
 
duff
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Mon Mar 25, 2019 6:34 am

Gasman wrote:
persisting inappropriately with VFR below cloud


What evidence do you have suggests they were VFR?
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Mon Mar 25, 2019 6:56 am

Gasman wrote:
Sad news.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/111510 ... nawa-range

Mood was very subdued out at NZAR yesterday. Weather at the time suggests that this was the same mechanism that has claimed so many New Zealand lives, from multitudes of GA crashes right thorough to the one that claimed 257 lives on Ross Island - ie, persisting inappropriately with VFR below cloud.

I’m sorry but that is purely conjecture and inappropriate at this stage.
Unless you know for a fact otherwise? That is an IFR capable twin with 2 experienced instructors onboard. It’s possible they were VFR but equally as possible they were IFR. I certainly would be flying IFR in those conditions! Fact is that light twins aren’t the safest planes as their engine out performance is minimal and being reciprocating engines rather than turbines means they are also less reliable.

Yes it is likely controlled flight into terrain but I wouldn’t go stating that now and would let the experts do their investigation.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
Deepinsider
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Mon Mar 25, 2019 9:38 am

Gasman wrote:
Sad news.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/111510 ... nawa-range

Mood was very subdued out at NZAR yesterday. Weather at the time suggests that this was the same mechanism that has claimed so many New Zealand lives, from multitudes of GA crashes right thorough to the one that claimed 257 lives on Ross Island - ie, persisting inappropriately with VFR below cloud.


There's every chance your suggestion might be so. But it may well be not so.
And it would be most appropriate for us to keep our thoughts to ourselves until
the experts do their thing. I think that would be best. This stuff would really be
best on a different thread topic
 
tealnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Mon Mar 25, 2019 1:18 pm

Gasman wrote:
...the same mechanism that has claimed so many New Zealand lives, from multitudes of GA crashes right thorough to the one that claimed 257 lives on Ross Island - ie, persisting inappropriately with VFR below cloud.

The Erebus flight was in clear air with good visibility. You should re-read Mahon...
 
Gasman
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Mon Mar 25, 2019 4:28 pm

tealnz wrote:
Gasman wrote:
...the same mechanism that has claimed so many New Zealand lives, from multitudes of GA crashes right thorough to the one that claimed 257 lives on Ross Island - ie, persisting inappropriately with VFR below cloud.

The Erebus flight was in clear air with good visibility. You should re-read Mahon...


The Erebus flight might not have been in cloud in the moments before impact; but to imply "clear visibility" during the descent misrepresents the situation. Mahon was a man with some insight however also a massive ego which interested parties (ALPA) were very effectively able to manipulate. His conclusions about no culpability of the crew were patently wrong.

But that's another story. With respect to the current disaster - of course it's conjecture, but why is conjecture inappropriate this point?? That's what this site is for. Yes there are other possibilities than being stuck VFR below cloud in a mountainous region but given the circumstances of this crash you'd have to say that would rank right up there.
 
tealnz
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Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:47 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:02 am

Gasman wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Gasman wrote:
...the same mechanism that has claimed so many New Zealand lives, from multitudes of GA crashes right thorough to the one that claimed 257 lives on Ross Island - ie, persisting inappropriately with VFR below cloud.

The Erebus flight was in clear air with good visibility. You should re-read Mahon...

The Erebus flight might not have been in cloud in the moments before impact; but to imply "clear visibility" during the descent misrepresents the situation. Mahon was a man with some insight however also a massive ego which interested parties (ALPA) were very effectively able to manipulate. His conclusions about no culpability of the crew were patently wrong.

You really should re-acquaint yourself with the technical findings. There is a larger point that is particularly pertinent right now: We are seeing a large corporation (Boeing) attempting to pin the blame on pilots for the Lion Air and Ethiopian 737 MAX crashes – on grounds that appear to be just as tenuous as those used by NZ to divert attention from their own mistakes in 1979.
 
Gasman
Posts: 2203
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:11 am

tealnz wrote:
Gasman wrote:
tealnz wrote:
The Erebus flight was in clear air with good visibility. You should re-read Mahon...

The Erebus flight might not have been in cloud in the moments before impact; but to imply "clear visibility" during the descent misrepresents the situation. Mahon was a man with some insight however also a massive ego which interested parties (ALPA) were very effectively able to manipulate. His conclusions about no culpability of the crew were patently wrong.

You really should re-acquaint yourself with the technical findings. There is a larger point that is particularly pertinent right now: We are seeing a large corporation (Boeing) attempting to pin the blame on pilots for the Lion Air and Ethiopian 737 MAX crashes – on grounds that appear to be just as tenuous as those used by NZ to divert attention from their own mistakes in 1979.


With what technical findings? Erebus? That disaster has been an interest (one could say an obsession) of mine for 40 years. There isn't a "technical finding" with which I'm not intricately familiar. I won't attempt to change your mind except to say that a) be careful to separate fact from opinion or conjecture and b) pernicious attempts by some parties to shift blame onto an another party do not in themselves remove those parties from blame.

And the same goes for the 738. If Boeing are already trying to sidestep responsibility (I wasn't aware that they were) then that attempt is obnoxious. But that in itself doesn't declare the pilots blameless.

Airlines.net is not a news source or an investigative body. We are free here to speculate, pontificate, debate as much as we wish. So if me suggesting that CFIT due to being VFR below a low cloud base in a mountainous area caused the weekend's accident is wrong; then that is of no consequence.
 
Deepinsider
Posts: 171
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:36 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Tue Mar 26, 2019 5:44 am

Please, please, guys... put Erebus to bed.
There will never be a consensus here, and
certainly I, and I think most will feel we've
over time heard all points of view on the subject
and it's become eternally boring.
It's so easy to set up a new thread where it can
be dealt with...please do that.
 
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LamboAston
Posts: 630
Joined: Thu Nov 12, 2015 6:46 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Tue Mar 26, 2019 5:53 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
PA515 wrote:
Air NZ A320-271N ZK-NHC (msn 8833) F-WWDE had it's first flight at TLS on 12 Mar 2019.

Two photos: https://aibfamily.flights/A320/8833

About to be ex Air NZ, A320-232 ZK-OJA (msn 2085) is TSV-CHC today as NZ6002.

And Air NZ A320-232 ZK-OJD (msn 2130) has not flown since 10 Mar 2019.

PA515


What happened to NHB? Already allocated or did I miss something?

NHB is rolled out and was rolled out before NHA was delivered. It rolled out before NHC
AS350, B733/4/7/8, B744/8, B762/3, B77E/L/W, B789, A319, A320, A321, A332, A346, A380, AT73/5/6, Q300, Q400, CR2/7, E190, S340, B1900C/D, E110 (E for epic)
NZ, EK, QF, SQ, UA, US, CO, FZ, FR, U2, BA, VA, VS, MH, EI, EY, LH, EN, NM, TG, GZ
 
Gasman
Posts: 2203
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:00 am

Deepinsider wrote:
Please, please, guys... put Erebus to bed.
There will never be a consensus here, and
certainly I, and I think most will feel we've
over time heard all points of view on the subject
and it's become eternally boring.
It's so easy to set up a new thread where it can
be dealt with...please do that.


For those that don't find discussions on the Erebus disaster eternally boring, I'd suggest a look at this thread rather than starting a new one:

https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-ze ... years.html

There's some chaff, but a lot of gold also particularly in the second half.
 
Motorhussy
Posts: 3673
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:49 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:57 am

When is NZ supposed to be announcing the 77E replacement?
come visit the south pacific
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7535
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:05 am

Motorhussy wrote:
When is NZ supposed to be announcing the 77E replacement?


By the end of June it’s due. Could be sooner.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3910
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Wed Mar 27, 2019 4:53 pm

Does anyone know what is up with the JQ 788 in AKL this morning? Was it an diversion or are they operating it back to AKL again?
 
qfatwa
Posts: 579
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 1999 5:39 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:23 pm

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/VHVKJ

VH-VKJ, left Melbourne at 2020, arrived AKL 0105, flight number JQ8999.

Arrived earlier in the day in Melbourne from Bangkok. No further flight showing from Auckland.
 
torin
Posts: 60
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2005 7:53 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:04 pm

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/111606433/air-nz-announces-sweeping-changes-including-launch-of-new-seoul-route-following-companywide-review

Big news out this morning!

The changes include a new service to South Korea, free wifi on international flights and a revamped economy product.
The new direct service between Auckland and Seoul will be launched in late November.
Air New Zealand will also defer spending on things like new aircraft, which would result in cost savings of more than $50 million per year, it said.


http://www.voxy.co.nz/business/5/335102

Aircraft capital expenditures of approximately $750 million will be deferred to ensure capacity growth better reflects the slower demand growth environment, including:

- Deferring by one year the delivery of three A321NEO aircraft planned to operate on the domestic network.
- Deferring by two years the delivery of one A320NEO aircraft designated for trans-Tasman services.
- Deferring by at least four years the delivery of two long-haul aircraft as part of a widebody fleet programme to replace the airline’s B777-200 fleet, thereby decreasing the level of capital expenditure expected in the 2020-2023 financial years.
- No change is planned for the delivery date of the airline’s 14th B787-9 aircraft, which will be leased from October 2019.
- As part of the airline’s focus on fleet flexibility, the new widebody fleet replacement programme will include provisions that allow for an acceleration of growth, should market conditions change.


some other interesting bits throughout the article

Interesting changes ahead and some nice changes to onboard product, potentially. Wonder exactly what more spacious economy product really means?

A new, more spacious, Economy product offering on the long-haul fleet from mid- calendar 2020.

Free Wi-Fi offered on all enabled international aircraft from today.
 
zkeoj
Posts: 1231
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 3:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:12 pm

This is interesting.

And this one is the disappointing part (purely from an enthusiast's point of view!): "Air New Zealand will also defer spending on things like new aircraft". I guess it means we'll have to wait a bit longer until the new long haul aircraft order is being announced...:(
 
torin
Posts: 60
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2005 7:53 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:15 pm

zkeoj wrote:
This is interesting.

And this one is the disappointing part (purely from an enthusiast's point of view!): "Air New Zealand will also defer spending on things like new aircraft". I guess it means we'll have to wait a bit longer until the new long haul aircraft order is being announced...:(


Dont you think that this bit means still doing it, but just 2 less aircraft in the immediate order?

- Deferring by at least four years the delivery of two long-haul aircraft as part of a widebody fleet programme to replace the airline’s B777-200 fleet, thereby decreasing the level of capital expenditure expected in the 2020-2023 financial years.
 
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Zkpilot
Posts: 4530
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:31 pm

torin wrote:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/111606433/air-nz-announces-sweeping-changes-including-launch-of-new-seoul-route-following-companywide-review

Big news out this morning!


Interesting changes ahead and some nice changes to onboard product, potentially. Wonder exactly what more spacious economy product really means?

A new, more spacious, Economy product offering on the long-haul fleet from mid- calendar 2020.

Free Wi-Fi offered on all enabled international aircraft from today.

The new seats on the A321NEO being thinner allow more space between the seat in front and behind. They have also increased the width on the centre seat to make that more pleasant. I’m guessing they will have to modify them slightly for skycouch customers so that the base is flatter/more padded.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
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qf789
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Topic Author
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:43 pm

NZ AKL-ORD to increase up to 5 weekly in NW19/20

https://twitter.com/airlineroute/status ... 31744?s=21
Forum Moderator
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4530
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:47 pm

torin wrote:
zkeoj wrote:
This is interesting.

And this one is the disappointing part (purely from an enthusiast's point of view!): "Air New Zealand will also defer spending on things like new aircraft". I guess it means we'll have to wait a bit longer until the new long haul aircraft order is being announced...:(


Dont you think that this bit means still doing it, but just 2 less aircraft in the immediate order?

- Deferring by at least four years the delivery of two long-haul aircraft as part of a widebody fleet programme to replace the airline’s B777-200 fleet, thereby decreasing the level of capital expenditure expected in the 2020-2023 financial years.
Yes I read that as 6x aircraft to replace the 77E initially with additional new aircraft being deferred by 4 years. That doesn’t necessarily mean an overall delay of say 6 years though as an order of 8x widebodies might normally take 2 years to deliver anyway so might just mean aircraft 7 & 8 are delivered in year 4 or 5 along with potentially any more.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7535
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Wed Mar 27, 2019 9:05 pm

Interesting indeed. Planemanofnz said ICN so well done to him. I had heard OZ might launch seasonal AKL, seems unlikely now?

I thought they would operate 2 hrs or so earlier, aircraft availability?

Retimed HKG from late October to free up an aircraft, Id imagine a morning service, wonder if CX will refine and offer an overnight ex AKL?

ORD makes sense IMO, good to see it and TPE doing well.

Hopefully we still get to hear the long haul fleet announcement soon.
 
Gasman
Posts: 2203
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Wed Mar 27, 2019 9:40 pm

Unless you're an NZ frequent flier currently frustrated by the lack of a service to ICN, there's little here to celebrate. In fact as a passenger, a few statements in here are quite frightening:

"Air New Zealand chief executive Christopher Luxon said the outcomes announced on Thursday would positively impact revenue growth, capital efficiency, operating costs and the customer travel experience into 2020 and beyond.

The changes would re-align the business to ensure a return to earnings growth in what was a lower growth environment, Luxon said.
"

= there's going to be cost cutting across the board to protect the shareholders.

"A new, more spacious, economy product offering would be rolled out on its long-haul fleet from mid 2020" = thinner, harder seats and more passengers in the cabin.

"An enhanced version of its existing business premier seat will be fitted to its widebody fleet towards the end of 2019 with the rollout expected to be completed by December 2020" = the desperately needed revamp of the J product isn't happening.

"The steps we are taking today will provide a strong foundation for future earnings growth" = passengers, bend over; and don't expect lube or a romantic candlelit dinner.
 
nz2
Posts: 256
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:38 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:34 pm

Hi guys, I have a question about flightradar24. I dont use it often, just to jump in check something specific or see if aircraft are actually operating in times of bad weather. Today no planes are visible to me anywhere whereas previously they just appeared. Do you have to log in these days get any live tracking?
 
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aerorobnz
Posts: 8353
Joined: Sat Feb 10, 2001 3:43 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:30 am

I think you see now why NZ/KE parted ways in AKL - direct competition.
I don't see anything particularly positive coming from this update. In fact, I think the way it was done, the ICN announcement feels like the corporate equivalent of "3 card Monte" or a magic trick (even if it isn't). It feels like a distraction to what they are really saying.
Lately, NZ management has had a real thing for empty virtue signalling and adding operational complexity without substance, without really understanding the impact on their operation or their passengers. They have become distracted by vacuous awards, rushing to implement gimmicks and new tech with improper planning and risk assessment time prior to rollout (which causes delays) and being seen to do the right things. rather than following due process and maximising efficiency from reducing complexity and ambiguity. As such it shows in their OTP, I had 4 flights domestically yesterday, and all 4 were +15-40min late off the gate including one where the pilot was completing his walkaround after departure time on a first departure out in the morning. I accept that this was one day, but I have noticed this happening more and more frequently as I travel. I can't help but notice the collective lack of focus in the airline right now.
,
There was a time when JQ couldn't buy OTP domestically and NZ was running a tight ship, but now NZ struggles to maintain an on-time schedule most days both domestically and internationally. They will struggle to maintain their yields and loyalties if they continue to charge far more than the competition but without the reliability and integrity that most of us have been happy to pay for in order for a smooth, undisrupted travel experience.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1675
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:33 am

IIRC the increase of Taipei frequency is old news - it was clearly foreshadowed when the route was announced that they would be going for a 5x weekly service in peak summer. Hopefully ICN will prove as fruitful. Good to see ORD also getting an increase - raises the question of which US port will be next. Do we expect to wait until the delivery of the yet-to-be-announced long haul aircraft for EWR to come into the frame, of might we see another port added first once ORD is up to 7x weekly? I still reckon a seasonal LAS service has to be an option . . .
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
zkeoj
Posts: 1231
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 3:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:40 am

torin wrote:
zkeoj wrote:
This is interesting.

And this one is the disappointing part (purely from an enthusiast's point of view!): "Air New Zealand will also defer spending on things like new aircraft". I guess it means we'll have to wait a bit longer until the new long haul aircraft order is being announced...:(


Dont you think that this bit means still doing it, but just 2 less aircraft in the immediate order?

- Deferring by at least four years the delivery of two long-haul aircraft as part of a widebody fleet programme to replace the airline’s B777-200 fleet, thereby decreasing the level of capital expenditure expected in the 2020-2023 financial years.


I think you may be right - the stuff article has been significantly expanded since I have read it first and posted the above ;-)
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1675
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:41 am

The resident cynics on this thread have excelled themselves this time. It's amazing how an announcement of a new long-haul route and frequency increases on two others, plus widespread availability of wifi can be met with such (tedious) negativity and accusations of "virtue signalling". Lighten up, guys - you'll end up with stress-related disorders!
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
DougS
Posts: 37
Joined: Sat Aug 13, 2005 7:04 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:41 am

Gasman wrote:
"[i]An enhanced version of its existing business premier seat


Just curious where you lifted this quote from? Internal update say this: The progressive introduction of an enhanced Business Premier experience on the long haul fleet.

Sounds similar but I think reads differently. Like you though, will be very disappointed if it isn’t a vast improvement.
 
Gasman
Posts: 2203
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2019

Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:20 am

DougS wrote:
Just curious where you lifted this quote from?


From the stuff link in post #186. Quite clearly indicates there will be no major revision of the J product.

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