qf002 wrote:

RyanairGuru wrote:

In short I think it is likely that the A380 will take over at least one current 747 route for the short-medium term until either more 787s or the Sunrise aircraft enter the fleet.

Yes, there is no way QF can rely solely on incoming 787s to replace the 744 fleet. It’s not a coincidence that the A380 refurb program is due to finish up right around the time that the last 744s are due to exit.

That’s assuming the 744s do indeed exit by late-2020. We will have to wait and see.

The 789's on order are all to be delivered in the 2019/2020 financial year so I would say within the next few months we will see a few more options converted into orders for delivery 2020/2021. Once the A380 refurbs are done there will be a spare A380, most of the 747 routes would require 2 to operate a service except for SYD-HKG. If they were to use A330's to HND/NRT they could always either upgrade another SIN flight, make the second SYD flight into A388 as well, the third SYD flight was seasonal and not daily but if that were to be a more permenant thing perhaps merge the 2 flights into 1 A388 and you would have 1 or 2 A330's at your disposal. The other alternative is to upgrade BNE-SIN to A388 but that may be a bit overkill. Personally I wouldnt want to see the A330 off PER-SIN, it would be an open invitation to SQ if they reverted to 738's, between SQ and TR they have up to 6 daily widebodies to PER so I dont necessarily think its in QF's best interest to go back to 738's

qf789 wrote:

qf002 wrote:

RyanairGuru wrote:

In short I think it is likely that the A380 will take over at least one current 747 route for the short-medium term until either more 787s or the Sunrise aircraft enter the fleet.

Yes, there is no way QF can rely solely on incoming 787s to replace the 744 fleet. It’s not a coincidence that the A380 refurb program is due to finish up right around the time that the last 744s are due to exit.

That’s assuming the 744s do indeed exit by late-2020. We will have to wait and see.

The 789's on order are all to be delivered in the 2019/2020 financial year so I would say within the next few months we will see a few more options converted into orders for delivery 2020/2021. Once the A380 refurbs are done there will be a spare A380, most of the 747 routes would require 2 to operate a service except for SYD-HKG. If they were to use A330's to HND/NRT they could always either upgrade another SIN flight, make the second SYD flight into A388 as well, the third SYD flight was seasonal and not daily but if that were to be a more permenant thing perhaps merge the 2 flights into 1 A388 and you would have 1 or 2 A330's at your disposal. The other alternative is to upgrade BNE-SIN to A388 but that may be a bit overkill. Personally I wouldnt want to see the A330 off PER-SIN, it would be an open invitation to SQ if they reverted to 738's, between SQ and TR they have up to 6 daily widebodies to PER so I dont necessarily think its in QF's best interest to go back to 738's

An order for 2020/2021 would make sense to pickup greater capacity for the summer high season as the 747's will still be around for the winter peak.
Does anybody know what is going to happen to Vancouver ? Dropping it? Year Round?

B1168 wrote:

Just out of curiosity, is there any plan for ADL to receive transpacific service to the United States, given their distance slightly longer than MEL’s?

I seriously doubt ADL has enough traffic, let alone premium traffic, that can sustain even 3x weekly LAX flight. ADL isn't a hotspot in terms of aviation anyway and is well connected to the existing gateways to cater for the demands to just about anywhere within the N.A.

Michael

B1168 wrote:

Just out of curiosity, is there any plan for ADL to receive transpacific service to the United States, given their distance slightly longer than MEL’s?

No hope in the near term. QF doesn't fly a single international route from ADL, and given they have the most capacity into the AUS-US market, it is unlikely they would start international ops and use a short-supply frame on this route. Other carriers would be looking to increase offerings to the larger (and closer) cities before looking at ADL. Simply too far for the limited demand and the extensive one-stop options.

ArtV wrote:

B1168 wrote:

Just out of curiosity, is there any plan for ADL to receive transpacific service to the United States, given their distance slightly longer than MEL’s?

No hope in the near term. QF doesn't fly a single international route from ADL, and given they have the most capacity into the AUS-US market, it is unlikely they would start international ops and use a short-supply frame on this route. Other carriers would be looking to increase offerings to the larger (and closer) cities before looking at ADL. Simply too far for the limited demand and the extensive one-stop options.

Probably the first route they will serve will be Singapore with either A321LR or Boeing's new NMA(797).
Perth will probably get a service to N.A. before Adelaide does.

JQ321 wrote:

ArtV wrote:

B1168 wrote:

Just out of curiosity, is there any plan for ADL to receive transpacific service to the United States, given their distance slightly longer than MEL’s?

No hope in the near term. QF doesn't fly a single international route from ADL, and given they have the most capacity into the AUS-US market, it is unlikely they would start international ops and use a short-supply frame on this route. Other carriers would be looking to increase offerings to the larger (and closer) cities before looking at ADL. Simply too far for the limited demand and the extensive one-stop options.

Probably the first route they will serve will be Singapore with either A321LR or Boeing's new NMA(797).
Perth will probably get a service to N.A. before Adelaide does.

I would tip PER-HNL on HA first before any of the majors e.g (defacto QF/AA, UA and VA/DL).
All airlines from the "Big 3 entities" on the TransPac flying seem unlikely to fly PER to anywhere in the USA in the medium term for that matter.

qf002 wrote:

RyanairGuru wrote:

In short I think it is likely that the A380 will take over at least one current 747 route for the short-medium term until either more 787s or the Sunrise aircraft enter the fleet.

Yes, there is no way QF can rely solely on incoming 787s to replace the 744 fleet. It’s not a coincidence that the A380 refurb program is due to finish up right around the time that the last 744s are due to exit.

That’s assuming the 744s do indeed exit by late-2020. We will have to wait and see.

Thought each 747 was being replaced by 2 787s so as not to lose capacity by making Chile & South Africa into daily flights

Last order of 6 787s was to replace the 6 ERs 1:1

Captdasbomb wrote:

Thought each 747 was being replaced by 2 787s so as not to lose capacity by making Chile & South Africa into daily flights

They are only getting 6 more 789s to replace 8 remaining 744s.

qf002 wrote:

Captdasbomb wrote:

Thought each 747 was being replaced by 2 787s so as not to lose capacity by making Chile & South Africa into daily flights

They are only getting 6 more 789s to replace 8 remaining 744s.

incorrect.
the 6 789s are replacing the 744ER's
the current the 744's are being replaced by the initial order for 8

[twoid][/twoid]

JQ321 wrote:

qf002 wrote:

Captdasbomb wrote:

Thought each 747 was being replaced by 2 787s so as not to lose capacity by making Chile & South Africa into daily flights

They are only getting 6 more 789s to replace 8 remaining 744s.

incorrect.
the 6 789s are replacing the 744ER's
the current the 744's are being replaced by the initial order for 8

The initial 8 are already delivered, however 2 more 744s will leave over the next few months probablyboth before the next 6 789s start arriving.

Does anyone have any idea why there was a QantasLink parked at T1 at Perth, its was parked at parking bay 161B

qf789 wrote:

Does anyone have any idea why there was a QantasLink parked at T1 at Perth, its was parked at parking bay 161B

International Charter?

qf789 wrote:

qf002 wrote:

RyanairGuru wrote:

In short I think it is likely that the A380 will take over at least one current 747 route for the short-medium term until either more 787s or the Sunrise aircraft enter the fleet.

Yes, there is no way QF can rely solely on incoming 787s to replace the 744 fleet. It’s not a coincidence that the A380 refurb program is due to finish up right around the time that the last 744s are due to exit.

That’s assuming the 744s do indeed exit by late-2020. We will have to wait and see.

The 789's on order are all to be delivered in the 2019/2020 financial year so I would say within the next few months we will see a few more options converted into orders for delivery 2020/2021. Once the A380 refurbs are done there will be a spare A380, most of the 747 routes would require 2 to operate a service except for SYD-HKG. If they were to use A330's to HND/NRT they could always either upgrade another SIN flight, make the second SYD flight into A388 as well, the third SYD flight was seasonal and not daily but if that were to be a more permenant thing perhaps merge the 2 flights into 1 A388 and you would have 1 or 2 A330's at your disposal. The other alternative is to upgrade BNE-SIN to A388 but that may be a bit overkill. Personally I wouldnt want to see the A330 off PER-SIN, it would be an open invitation to SQ if they reverted to 738's, between SQ and TR they have up to 6 daily widebodies to PER so I dont necessarily think its in QF's best interest to go back to 738's

So some more 787-9s at the 3rd quarter trading update? When are the 3 787s arriving in 2020?

qf789 wrote:

Does anyone have any idea why there was a QantasLink parked at T1 at Perth, its was parked at parking bay 161B

What aircraft/rego was it?

Wouldn't surprise me if no more 787s (at least for a while). There are no more international aircraft to retire, and the recent investment in the 333s and 332s suggest a few more years left in them, at least till the Sunrise order is made and starts arriving.

And while now profitable, its return is still below other segments.

If the 797 is announced at the June Paris Airshow I wouldn't be surprised if Qantas has some early orders for domestic. Remember the last new domestic aircraft was RetroRoo I in 2014.

A bit of a what if scenario that just popped in to my mind.

I wonder if QF ever considered getting some new 767s during the time of the 787 delays like LAN or ANA. Their own fleet was old and on the way out, but the aircraft really formed the backbone of the domestic fleet for many years, offering the ability to go beyond a 738 in capacity without having to throw an A330 at it. A fleet of about 10 delivered from 2010-2011 would mean they were in a position to offer more wide body flying on the golden triangle and less 738s on transcons that didn’t need the 330, they would also have something in that segment to carry them over until MOM arrives. Could also free up some more 330s for international potentially allowing the retirement of more 747s earlier.

a320fan wrote:

A bit of a what if scenario that just popped in to my mind.

I wonder if QF ever considered getting some new 767s during the time of the 787 delays like LAN or ANA. Their own fleet was old and on the way out, but the aircraft really formed the backbone of the domestic fleet for many years, offering the ability to go beyond a 738 in capacity without having to throw an A330 at it. A fleet of about 10 delivered from 2010-2011 would mean they were in a position to offer more wide body flying on the golden triangle and less 738s on transcons that didn’t need the 330, they would also have something in that segment to carry them over until MOM arrives. Could also free up some more 330s for international potentially allowing the retirement of more 747s earlier.

I would doubt it. The savings achieved by eliminating a type would far outweigh the downside of potentially misusing an A332 on a route for which it is not optimised.

qf789 wrote:

Does anyone have any idea why there was a QantasLink parked at T1 at Perth, its was parked at parking bay 161B

VH-VQU positioned PER-XSP (Seletar) this morning. The flight number (6682) and destination makes it seem it's been sent for maintenance.

ZK-NBT wrote:

[twoid][/twoid]

JQ321 wrote:

qf002 wrote:

They are only getting 6 more 789s to replace 8 remaining 744s.

incorrect.
the 6 789s are replacing the 744ER's
the current the 744's are being replaced by the initial order for 8

The initial 8 are already delivered, however 2 more 744s will leave over the next few months probablyboth before the next 6 789s start arriving.

Whichever way you want to look at it, QF isn’t replacing the 744s with 789s on a 1:2 basis.

Just noticed on FR24 VH-OQA Nancy-Bird Walton Dep from AUH has she had a respray in the New Livery??

For Anyone in CNS tomorrow, 9th March the QF26 HND/SYD is diverting to CNS.

ETA CNS approx 0630hrs ETD CNS approx 0730hrs

This is to facilitate a crew rotation (not sure if Tech crew, cabin crew or both)

DJMEL wrote:

Just noticed on FR24 VH-OQA Nancy-Bird Walton Dep from AUH has she had a respray in the New Livery??

AUH was for heavy maintenance, she had a repaint last year in DXB from memory.

VHZNE wrote:

DJMEL wrote:

Just noticed on FR24 VH-OQA Nancy-Bird Walton Dep from AUH has she had a respray in the New Livery??

AUH was for heavy maintenance, she had a repaint last year in DXB from memory.

Correct, OQA had a respray in Jul 2019 before she went to AUH.

Michael

moa999 wrote:

Wouldn't surprise me if no more 787s (at least for a while). There are no more international aircraft to retire, and the recent investment in the 333s and 332s suggest a few more years left in them, at least till the Sunrise order is made and starts arriving.

And while now profitable, its return is still below other segments.

If the 797 is announced at the June Paris Airshow I wouldn't be surprised if Qantas has some early orders for domestic. Remember the last new domestic aircraft was RetroRoo I in 2014.

Interiors typically have a service life of 6-8 years, so we could start to see some of the A333's being replaced in the 2022/23 time frame.

I suspect the current interiors will be obsoleted by the new Sunrise project interiors around 2025.

Chris2302 wrote:

So some more 787-9s at the 3rd quarter trading update? When are the 3 787s arriving in 2020?

I doubt it. If QF decides on a top up order of 787's i'd have thought they won't announce it until their full year result in early September. That would make for likely deliveries in the early to mid part of 2021.

To me, alot of that hinges on what happens with the AA Joint Business Application. If they can get that up then I can see both American increasing service, (adding MEL), QF adding more service to DFW and QF adding Canada year round. That would make more 787's a necessity.

I'd also expect more details of Project Sunrise at their Full Year results as well. We could even see an order for aircraft if the goal is to have that up and running in 2021.

AirAsia X SYD changes

4 Mar-30 Jun 19 and 3 Aug - 1 Oct 19, reduced from 11 weekly to daily
1 Jul - 2 Aug, increased to double daily

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... ariations/

From 24 Mar 19 Qantas cabin carry on luggage changes for domestic flights, instead of 2 bags each at 7kg each, will be changed to 10kg and 4 kg

https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-increas ... ource=hero

There is an brief but interesting article on QF's website following a 73H through the course of a week.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/roo-tales/a-week-in-the-life-of-boeing-737/

vhqpa wrote:

There is an brief but interesting article on QF's website following a 73H through the course of a week.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/roo-tales/a-week-in-the-life-of-boeing-737/

Interesting little article.

Here is the GC Map plot if anyone is interested

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=DPS-MEL-AK ... EL-CBR-PER

How do the ops team decide what aircraft goes to what airport?

VA's comparatively young RR powered A332s have an advertised still air range of about 13400km; BNE-LAX is just over 11500km. Do you think VA would ever be tempted to try the A332s on this route where its size is probably more appropriate for the route demand. Westbound may be a bit tight seasonally but very doable.

qf2220 wrote:

vhqpa wrote:

There is an brief but interesting article on QF's website following a 73H through the course of a week.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/roo-tales/a-week-in-the-life-of-boeing-737/

Interesting little article.

Here is the GC Map plot if anyone is interested

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=DPS-MEL-AK ... EL-CBR-PER

How do the ops team decide what aircraft goes to what airport?

I wonder how much the PTV equipped 738 are confined to international routes? It’s good to see QF starting to stretch their legs a bit more to DPS,SIN,NAN

tullamarine wrote:

VA's comparatively young RR powered A332s have an advertised still air range of about 13400km; BNE-LAX is just over 11500km. Do you think VA would ever be tempted to try the A332s on this route where its size is probably more appropriate for the route demand. Westbound may be a bit tight seasonally but very doable.

Not a chance

Not sure an A332 could pull it off economically, but probably no reason mechanically. The A332s aren't in a premium heavy config so no problems there, just not sure about payload capabilities. According to wiki AR has the longest a332 flight at around 14 hrs (11400km), so you're already at the limit. Perhaps 787s or 330neos down the line?

Malindo planning to start KUL-DPS-SYD from 21 Jun 19, daily 737-800

https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status ... 13665?s=20

qf789 wrote:

Malindo planning to start KUL-DPS-SYD from 21 Jun 19, daily 737-800

https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status ... 13665?s=20

Good, More competition.

qf789 wrote:

Malindo planning to start KUL-DPS-SYD from 21 Jun 19, daily 737-800

https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status ... 13665?s=20

I wonder how many pax off these Malindo services are continuing on to KUL?

I guess that was bound to happen.
There will be now be 5 airlines on SYD-Bali.
QF, JQ, VA, GA and now Malindo. Going to be very competitive! They are starting ADL soon too.

This post is going to repeat some of my last post in the February thread.

The close aviation ties between Australia and England/South Africa have been established for decades. How do Aussies prefer to travel from capitals like Sydney, Perth, Brisbane, etc. to the major cricketing countries besides South Africa? (So that would be India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe.) Whether that be for cricket tourism, business, leisure, or just VFR.

-Connect through SE Asia on SQ/MH/TG?
-Backtrack using a Gulf carrier?
-Connect to Zim via Jo'burg on SAA?

I think there are only 15 weekly flights from Australia to the Indian subcontinent (AI's SYD-DEL and MEL-DEL, and UL's daily MEL-CMB on a 333).

I might as well throw NAS/BGI (West Indies) in there considering how popular the Fiesta Route once was.

A lot of Malindo OD fifth freedom flights then.

Yet Perth is the only one served by an actual Indonesian based aircraft with Batik ID.

And no actual Lion Air JT aircraft - internationally it seems to mostly serve China, along with Malaysia, Singapore and Saudi Arabia

SeaEagle8 wrote:

I guess that was bound to happen.
There will be now be 5 airlines on SYD-Bali.
QF, JQ, VA, GA and now Malindo. Going to be very competitive! They are starting ADL soon too.

There has been no media attention to ADL regarding OD launch. Airlineroute reported it on the 13th Feb 19, for a 31 MAR 19 launch date. Reservation is still not available so it is unlikely this will now happen on the proposed date. Hopefully it ends up happening though. Good for OD now that they have the 4 major ports covered plus ADL. Heard on another forum, another Indonesia lion air group airline may launch DPS-BNE later this year and OD may try KUL-BNE non-stop.

Didn’t realise ADL wasn’t confirmed. Maybe it won’t launch then. I follow Airlineroute as well and find that news source very reliable but sometimes even announced routes don’t see the light of day.
Hasn’t Malindo cut BNE to 4x weekly though? And Malaysia did a reverse of its planned increase to 5x weekly. Now 4 weekly only indefinitely?

leftcoast8 wrote:

This post is going to repeat some of my last post in the February thread.

The close aviation ties between Australia and England/South Africa have been established for decades. How do Aussies prefer to travel from capitals like Sydney, Perth, Brisbane, etc. to the major cricketing countries besides South Africa? (So that would be India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe.) Whether that be for cricket tourism, business, leisure, or just VFR.

-Connect through SE Asia on SQ/MH/TG?
-Backtrack using a Gulf carrier?
-Connect to Zim via Jo'burg on SAA?

I think there are only 15 weekly flights from Australia to the Indian subcontinent (AI's SYD-DEL and MEL-DEL, and UL's daily MEL-CMB on a 333).

I might as well throw NAS/BGI (West Indies) in there considering how popular the Fiesta Route once was.

Due to the terrorist threats in Pakistan, Australia no longer plays any matches there; Pakistan now tends to have its home tournaments in the Middle East. There are plenty of options to India or Sri Lanka including the direct options you mention as well as utilising scissor hubs in places like SIN or KUL. Bangladesh also has services out of SIN.

Zimbabwe is problematic due to a volatile security situation. Transitting via JNB is quickest. EK also serves Harare so transitting via DXB would tend to probably be the cheaper albeit longer trip.

With direct services now available to DFW and IAH, the West Indies is a lot easier to get to than in the past.

SeaEagle8 wrote:

Didn’t realise ADL wasn’t confirmed. Maybe it won’t launch then. I follow Airlineroute as well and find that news source very reliable but sometimes even announced routes don’t see the light of day.
Hasn’t Malindo cut BNE to 4x weekly though? And Malaysia did a reverse of its planned increase to 5x weekly. Now 4 weekly only indefinitely?

Malindo has cut BNE to 4x weekly. However, their original plan was for it to be 3x weekly non-stop from KUL and 4x via DPS. If your talking MH to BNE, they have always been 4x weekly since resuming last June. No announcement was ever made for MH to go 5x weekly to BNE. They are planning an increase to either 5x weekly or daily from BNE however.

oskarclare wrote:

SeaEagle8 wrote:

Didn’t realise ADL wasn’t confirmed. Maybe it won’t launch then. I follow Airlineroute as well and find that news source very reliable but sometimes even announced routes don’t see the light of day.
Hasn’t Malindo cut BNE to 4x weekly though? And Malaysia did a reverse of its planned increase to 5x weekly. Now 4 weekly only indefinitely?

Malindo has cut BNE to 4x weekly. However, their original plan was for it to be 3x weekly non-stop from KUL and 4x via DPS. If your talking MH to BNE, they have always been 4x weekly since resuming last June. No announcement was ever made for MH to go 5x weekly to BNE. They are planning an increase to either 5x weekly or daily from BNE however.

Oh ok. Sorry mixed that up with something else maybe. Not sure if Malindo would have the aircraft to go nonstop to KUL. That would be one hell of a long flight on a single aisle if they did!

Today’s QR CBR-SYD-DOH has been subbed by 77L

https://twitter.com/www16right/status/1 ... 94496?s=21

SeaEagle8 wrote:

Oh ok. Sorry mixed that up with something else maybe. Not sure if Malindo would have the aircraft to go nonstop to KUL. That would be one hell of a long flight on a single aisle if they did!

3000 miles seems to be the limit for 737-900ER flights.

SeaEagle8 wrote:

oskarclare wrote:

SeaEagle8 wrote:

Didn’t realise ADL wasn’t confirmed. Maybe it won’t launch then. I follow Airlineroute as well and find that news source very reliable but sometimes even announced routes don’t see the light of day.
Hasn’t Malindo cut BNE to 4x weekly though? And Malaysia did a reverse of its planned increase to 5x weekly. Now 4 weekly only indefinitely?

Malindo has cut BNE to 4x weekly. However, their original plan was for it to be 3x weekly non-stop from KUL and 4x via DPS. If your talking MH to BNE, they have always been 4x weekly since resuming last June. No announcement was ever made for MH to go 5x weekly to BNE. They are planning an increase to either 5x weekly or daily from BNE however.

Oh ok. Sorry mixed that up with something else maybe. Not sure if Malindo would have the aircraft to go nonstop to KUL. That would be one hell of a long flight on a single aisle if they did!

No dramas but they were supposed to get A330's but they went to Thai Lion Air. Apparently they were going to try with 739's which IMO, would not be a good idea whatsoever

oskarclare wrote:

SeaEagle8 wrote:

oskarclare wrote:

Malindo has cut BNE to 4x weekly. However, their original plan was for it to be 3x weekly non-stop from KUL and 4x via DPS. If your talking MH to BNE, they have always been 4x weekly since resuming last June. No announcement was ever made for MH to go 5x weekly to BNE. They are planning an increase to either 5x weekly or daily from BNE however.

Oh ok. Sorry mixed that up with something else maybe. Not sure if Malindo would have the aircraft to go nonstop to KUL. That would be one hell of a long flight on a single aisle if they did!

No dramas but they were supposed to get A330's but they went to Thai Lion Air. Apparently they were going to try with 739's which IMO, would not be a good idea whatsoever

And they did get A330's along with Thai Lion Air.