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CityRail
Posts: 59
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:26 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:15 am

SeaEagle8 wrote:
Wicked weather continuing.

Many flights diverting including EK, NZ, MH and HA heading to MEL.
The QF744 from MEL-SYD now circling as well.


Interestingly VA1192, an ATR 72 is battling the weather and just landed at Sydney.
Also SQ 288 and SQ 211 has arrived Sydney over the past 30 minutes as well, same as CX 139 and CZ301.

It seems that VA 669 may be returning back to CBR as well. Possibly faster to catch the bus than flying in this kind of weather.

However, the following services have been cancelled as the result of the bad weather:
NZ 888 to AKL
HA 452 to HNL
Should be more flights getting cancelled due to diversions and curfew.
 
VapourTrails
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Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2001 9:30 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:22 am

SeaEagle8 wrote:
Wicked weather continuing. Many flights diverting including EK, NZ, MH and HA heading to MEL. The QF744 from MEL-SYD now circling as well.


A number of flights departed CBR once the weather had deteriorated, only to go into patterns and then return to CBR. I am not sure why they would make the decision to depart in the first instance? With regard to the holding patterns also, there are some smaller tracks happening that are inside larger ones. I have never noticed that before? On a similar note, QR907 CBR-SYD returned to CBR earlier today, not sure of the reason there.. don’t think it was weather-related though..
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:41 am

CityRail wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:
Wicked weather continuing.

Many flights diverting including EK, NZ, MH and HA heading to MEL.
The QF744 from MEL-SYD now circling as well.


Interestingly VA1192, an ATR 72 is battling the weather and just landed at Sydney.
Also SQ 288 and SQ 211 has arrived Sydney over the past 30 minutes as well, same as CX 139 and CZ301.

It seems that VA 669 may be returning back to CBR as well. Possibly faster to catch the bus than flying in this kind of weather.

However, the following services have been cancelled as the result of the bad weather:
NZ 888 to AKL
HA 452 to HNL
Should be more flights getting cancelled due to diversions and curfew.


I think last time there was bad weather they offered curfew dispensation - so maybe down to crew hours at this point.
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:21 pm

tullamarine wrote:
Having said that, exiting the alliance with VA probably doesn't make as much sense and will probably eventually be seen as a strategic mistake. The cancellation has meant NZ has lost access to the 7,000,000 Velocity members who may have considered NZ attractive for international travel. No Star FF program has much foothold in AU. NZ's international business relies heavily on Australian transits and, without VA, it really can only compete on price; in terms of product it is only average and there are often much faster direct options. The QF partnership really offers very little; they cannot get closer due to competition issues and QF have no real interest in channeling passengers onto NZ services.


A few things to note
    Virgin only owns 65% of Velocity so any benefits are never going to be fully realised.
    The QF/NZ partnership does offer a range of benefits for both from a customer and business perspective; the main one being it damages VA's value proposition and forces it to direct more resources from profitable domestic services to TT in order to compete. Also, VA are still talking to ACCC about the deal.
    VA International competes on price as much as NZ.
I'm that bad type.
 
syd747
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:18 am

SeaEagle8 wrote:
Wicked weather continuing.

Many flights diverting including EK, NZ, MH and HA heading to MEL.
The QF744 from MEL-SYD now circling as well.


Quick question regarding HA being diverted to MEL. The return service HA452 was cancelled and it looks like according flightradar24 - N374HA is being ferried back to HNL from MEL Friday evening. Would HA have re-accom all pax on schedule services to SYD from MEL? and why not just ferry aircraft up to SYD to operate the delayed service for the previous evening?
Cheers
 
navjotgill45
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:33 am

I think you have the wrong plane. It's N389HA being ferried to HNL. N374HA doesn't appear to have suffered any delays. Agree it's a confusing situation.
 
syd747
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:49 am

navjotgill45 wrote:
I think you have the wrong plane. It's N389HA being ferried to HNL. N374HA doesn't appear to have suffered any delays. Agree it's a confusing situation.


Yes, sorry I mean't N389HA being ferried
 
syd747
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:54 am

QF 747-400 VH-OEB also operated QF469 and QF462 SYD-MEL-SYD last night (14/3) anticipating the weather
 
Flyingsottsman
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:09 am

I know Virgin has the Max 8s on order and no doubt are monitoring the situation with the aircraft, does Qantas also have the Max 8s on order ?
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:18 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
I know Virgin has the Max 8s on order and no doubt are monitoring the situation with the aircraft, does Qantas also have the Max 8s on order ?

No, QF has not addressed replacement of its 737NGs as yet and is expected to announce a replacement plan in the next couple of years. It is likely QF is waiting for the release of the NMA (797) before deciding on a domestic fleet strategy. JQ has ordered the A320NEO so it is also an option for QF mainline
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:38 am

syd747 wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:
Wicked weather continuing.

Many flights diverting including EK, NZ, MH and HA heading to MEL.
The QF744 from MEL-SYD now circling as well.


Quick question regarding HA being diverted to MEL. The return service HA452 was cancelled and it looks like according flightradar24 - N374HA is being ferried back to HNL from MEL Friday evening. Would HA have re-accom all pax on schedule services to SYD from MEL? and why not just ferry aircraft up to SYD to operate the delayed service for the previous evening?
Cheers


Correct - all pax on the diverted flights would have been overnighted and then flown back to SYD today. Luckily there would have been spare capacity due to the Grand Prix - traffic flowing into MEL, not departing from MEL.

I’d say MEL-SYD-HNL would have been outside of crew hours. Considering the crew would be starting the duty in SYD to pax to MEL to then ferry the aircraft back to SYD an onwards to HNL. Otherwise the crew in MEL would have need min rest, maybe 18-24hrs after long haul flight - Any other solution would have taken the frame out of the network for too long.
 
Qantas16
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Fri Mar 15, 2019 6:18 am

smi0006 wrote:
syd747 wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:
Wicked weather continuing.

Many flights diverting including EK, NZ, MH and HA heading to MEL.
The QF744 from MEL-SYD now circling as well.


Quick question regarding HA being diverted to MEL. The return service HA452 was cancelled and it looks like according flightradar24 - N374HA is being ferried back to HNL from MEL Friday evening. Would HA have re-accom all pax on schedule services to SYD from MEL? and why not just ferry aircraft up to SYD to operate the delayed service for the previous evening?
Cheers


Correct - all pax on the diverted flights would have been overnighted and then flown back to SYD today. Luckily there would have been spare capacity due to the Grand Prix - traffic flowing into MEL, not departing from MEL.

I’d say MEL-SYD-HNL would have been outside of crew hours. Considering the crew would be starting the duty in SYD to pax to MEL to then ferry the aircraft back to SYD an onwards to HNL. Otherwise the crew in MEL would have need min rest, maybe 18-24hrs after long haul flight - Any other solution would have taken the frame out of the network for too long.


Interesting that they chose not to divert to BNE where they have HA staff and ground staff trained with HA. Obviously a slightly longer diversion point but would have been easier I would have thought.
 
TG788
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Fri Mar 15, 2019 6:19 am

Qantas will appear before a Senate committee into regional airfares: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-15/ ... s/10902166

For the interested, details of the the committee are here: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Bu ... lAirRoutes
 
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bjwonline
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Fri Mar 15, 2019 6:52 am

Another question regarding Sydney Airport, there is a building next to the freight terminal that appears to be being demolished. I've not been able to find any info on this myself so was hoping someone here could provide a link to what the plans are for this site? I have a vague memory that it was for an extension of T1 to add an extra gate or two but can't find any info on that either. Thanks!
 
JQ321
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:53 am

TG788 wrote:
Qantas will appear before a Senate committee into regional airfares: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-15/ ... s/10902166

For the interested, details of the the committee are here: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Bu ... lAirRoutes

How does a company appear. A company is not a person or a thing .
 
NTLDaz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:24 am

JQ321 wrote:
TG788 wrote:
Qantas will appear before a Senate committee into regional airfares: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-15/ ... s/10902166

For the interested, details of the the committee are here: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Bu ... lAirRoutes

How does a company appear. A company is not a person or a thing .


Semantics.

Clearly Qantas representatives will appear.

Crikey !
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:59 am

smi0006 wrote:
syd747 wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:
Wicked weather continuing.

Many flights diverting including EK, NZ, MH and HA heading to MEL.
The QF744 from MEL-SYD now circling as well.


Quick question regarding HA being diverted to MEL. The return service HA452 was cancelled and it looks like according flightradar24 - N374HA is being ferried back to HNL from MEL Friday evening. Would HA have re-accom all pax on schedule services to SYD from MEL? and why not just ferry aircraft up to SYD to operate the delayed service for the previous evening?
Cheers


Correct - all pax on the diverted flights would have been overnighted and then flown back to SYD today. Luckily there would have been spare capacity due to the Grand Prix - traffic flowing into MEL, not departing from MEL.

I’d say MEL-SYD-HNL would have been outside of crew hours. Considering the crew would be starting the duty in SYD to pax to MEL to then ferry the aircraft back to SYD an onwards to HNL. Otherwise the crew in MEL would have need min rest, maybe 18-24hrs after long haul flight - Any other solution would have taken the frame out of the network for too long.


I am not sure I follow the logic here. Flights to SYD from MEL would have had high LF's today due to the fact that some flights from yesterday were diverted, plus others had been cancelled. As a result of yesterday's weather related diversions you also had aircraft in the wrong ports along with crew which then becomes a resource issue as well. This will result in down the line delays in some case cancellations

This is going to run into tomorrow as well, today's VA569 SYD-PER has been delayed to tomorrow morning, which will flow onto VA680 PER-MEL which is going to have at least an hour delay on it as well
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:16 am

BNE seeing delays due to weather tonight, several flights cancelled
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:20 am

JQ321 wrote:
TG788 wrote:
Qantas will appear before a Senate committee into regional airfares: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-15/ ... s/10902166

For the interested, details of the the committee are here: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Bu ... lAirRoutes

How does a company appear. A company is not a person or a thing .


Legally a company is a person, and when appearing before a commission or a court room it is absolutely the company that appears.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:21 pm

qf789 wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
syd747 wrote:

Quick question regarding HA being diverted to MEL. The return service HA452 was cancelled and it looks like according flightradar24 - N374HA is being ferried back to HNL from MEL Friday evening. Would HA have re-accom all pax on schedule services to SYD from MEL? and why not just ferry aircraft up to SYD to operate the delayed service for the previous evening?
Cheers


Correct - all pax on the diverted flights would have been overnighted and then flown back to SYD today. Luckily there would have been spare capacity due to the Grand Prix - traffic flowing into MEL, not departing from MEL.

I’d say MEL-SYD-HNL would have been outside of crew hours. Considering the crew would be starting the duty in SYD to pax to MEL to then ferry the aircraft back to SYD an onwards to HNL. Otherwise the crew in MEL would have need min rest, maybe 18-24hrs after long haul flight - Any other solution would have taken the frame out of the network for too long.


I am not sure I follow the logic here. Flights to SYD from MEL would have had high LF's today due to the fact that some flights from yesterday were diverted, plus others had been cancelled. As a result of yesterday's weather related diversions you also had aircraft in the wrong ports along with crew which then becomes a resource issue as well. This will result in down the line delays in some case cancellations

This is going to run into tomorrow as well, today's VA569 SYD-PER has been delayed to tomorrow morning, which will flow onto VA680 PER-MEL which is going to have at least an hour delay on it as well


Sorry it’s not so much logic, but luck!! Imagine the reverse. Diversions to SYD from international ports, and domestic MEL flights to SYD — but due to the Grand Prix not are aircraft not only out of position, there is no room to accommodate anyone as they load we’re already full with Grand Prix traffic. I’m saying it was lucky VA,QF HA,NZ,MH,EK didn’t have to combat event traffic and weather traffic
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:55 pm

AirAsia X is considering other routes to AVV after its successful launch, loads have been 80-85%, 100,000 passengers have flown the route since launch

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/air ... r-success/
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JQ321
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:54 am

qf789 wrote:
AirAsia X is considering other routes to AVV after its successful launch, loads have been 80-85%, 100,000 passengers have flown the route since launch

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/air ... r-success/

Thailand?
 
zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:58 am

qf789 wrote:
AirAsia X is considering other routes to AVV after its successful launch, loads have been 80-85%, 100,000 passengers have flown the route since launch

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/air ... r-success/


Adding an AKL or CHC tag to replace the loss of OOL-AKL this year?
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:48 am

zkncj wrote:
qf789 wrote:
AirAsia X is considering other routes to AVV after its successful launch, loads have been 80-85%, 100,000 passengers have flown the route since launch

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/air ... r-success/


Adding an AKL or CHC tag to replace the loss of OOL-AKL this year?


I doubt it, if AAX return to New Zealand it will be non-stop IMHO.

Any through passengers to NZ took away from seats available to Australia, and conversely any seats sold to OOL had to be replaced with an OOL-AKL local passenger. They were flogging fire sale prices on the route, it must have been haemoraging money. While MEL-AKL is a larger local market is still very competitive and AAX would have to undercut the competition to fill 300 seats.

AVV-DMK on the other hand seems very likely.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
oskarclare
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:22 am

qf789 wrote:
AirAsia X is considering other routes to AVV after its successful launch, loads have been 80-85%, 100,000 passengers have flown the route since launch

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/air ... r-success/


Would make sense to launch DMK-AVV. That would then make 2 Aussie routes (the other from BNE) and then further in the future start HKT/AVV and BNE flights.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:03 pm

As of today SilkAir ops to DRW and CNS operated by 738 due to obvious reasons, until 26 Oct 19

https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status ... 20609?s=20
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QF41
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:28 pm

qf789 wrote:
As of today SilkAir ops to DRW and CNS operated by 738 due to obvious reasons, until 26 Oct 19

https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status ... 20609?s=20



Has been flying 737 - 800 for a few days now since Singapore grounded the 737max
Must be somewhere can't be nowhere

QF, VA, JQ, SQ, AA, BA, DJ, MH, RJ, EK, EY, GA, AY, LA, CU, UL, NZ, CI, PR, AZ, AT, U2, MZ, NC, 3K
 
JQ321
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:23 am

qf789 wrote:
As of today SilkAir ops to DRW and CNS operated by 738 due to obvious reasons, until 26 Oct 19

https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status ... 20609?s=20

Interesting the believe they'll be un-grounded by October.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:06 am

JQ321 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
As of today SilkAir ops to DRW and CNS operated by 738 due to obvious reasons, until 26 Oct 19

https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status ... 20609?s=20

Interesting the believe they'll be un-grounded by October.


That’s the start of the NW schedules, they will adjust as necessary. It may be a lot shorter than that or it could be longer.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:36 am

A mate belongs to a private Facebook group for Australian 'very frequent flyers', invitation-only sort of thing, and a member of that group posted this today.

Here's your latest batch of QF goss:
- The Project Sunrise aircraft will be Boeing, and will be announced at mid-year results (apparently will be mediocre compared to last few years, so looking to add some punch for the market)
- The cancelled A380 purchase rights have been converted to A321LRs, which will form the backbone of the 737 replacement program, and do a mix of domestic and shorthaul international flying (would have lie-flat J beds)
- Future QF fleet will be:
* Ultra Longhaul: B789 and B777-?X
* Mid-haul: A380 and A330
* Short-haul: A321LR
- Talk of QF wanting to open up a route to CMB, probably from SYD
- Expect an announcement on CDG and FRA at mid-year results (latest)
- Strong rumour going around LHR base is that the PER-LHR v.v. will go double daily by end of year


Now I read a lot of that as bullsh*t but my friend says this guy has a decent track record of being correct with inside info.

I can't believe CMB. CDG and FRA makes sense because the 'second wave' of B789 orders starts mid-year. B777X order still sounds like speculation, let's face it, you can say B777X or A350ULR and have a 50/50 chance of being correct! A321LR for short-haul sounds very far-fetched as it would mean complete move away from B737 fleet and that would have to be very expensive, as nice as it would be to have the A321neo instead of B737 on domestic routes.
Last edited by CraigAnderson on Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:56 am

Frequent flyers are an even less reliable source of new than crew rumours.

That said, the suggestion isn't outside the realm of possibility. The biggest red flag to me is the 321LR, the standard NEO will do everything that QF need so there is no value in carrying the extra weight of the LR model.
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:06 am

Isn't Jetstar going to get A321LRs so it can use them for overnight missions like DPS along with daily domestic runs for greater utilisation? If so then the A321LR would also make sense for QF although maybe as mixed fleet, not a solely A321LR fleet, just A321s with some LRs in there too.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:06 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
A mate belongs to a private Facebook group for Australian 'very frequent flyers', invitation-only sort of thing, and a member of that group posted this today.

Here's your latest batch of QF goss:
- The Project Sunrise aircraft will be Boeing, and will be announced at mid-year results (apparently will be mediocre compared to last few years, so looking to add some punch for the market)
- The cancelled A380 purchase rights have been converted to A321LRs, which will form the backbone of the 737 replacement program, and do a mix of domestic and shorthaul international flying (would have lie-flat J beds)
- Future QF fleet will be:
* Ultra Longhaul: B789 and B777-?X
* Mid-haul: A380 and A330
* Short-haul: A321LR
- Talk of QF wanting to open up a route to CMB, probably from SYD
- Expect an announcement on CDG and FRA at mid-year results (latest)
- Strong rumour going around LHR base is that the PER-LHR v.v. will go double daily by end of year


Now I read a lot of that as bullsh*t but my friend says this guy has a decent track record of being correct with inside info.

I can't believe CMB. CDG and FRA makes sense because the 'second wave' of B7879 orders starts mid-year. B777X order still sounds like speculation, let's face it, you can say B777X or A350ULR and have a 50/50 chance of being correct! A321LR for short-haul sounds very far-fetched as it would mean complete move away from B737 fleet and that would have to be very expensive, as nice as it would be to have the A321neo instead of B737 on domestic routes.


So in the space of a week we have had a YouTuber claiming it will be A350ULR after speaking to a QF 744 pilot and a ground crew member in PER and now we have this. I agree this is just wild speculation and probably hyperbole. From what I understand the decision will be in October not August at full year results due to the fact that Boeing will be releasing to airlines in August results from testing of the 777-9. I also have it on good authority that Qantas has not made a final decision on Project Sunrise yet.

The next 6 787-9's are suppose to be replacements for 744's, as much as I would like to see double daily PER-LHR plus CDG and FRA announcing them all together or within a short window sounds risky. These 3 routes alone would require 6 787-9's. Now if QF were to announce FRA/CDG in August it would need to start NW20/21 with 789 order with it, that I might believe. Again this leaves a hole, where does the US plans fit into this

On the A321LR's, why would you order all of them LR's when a neo would be fine considering at least 50% of domestic is within 2 hours of each other, that doesn't make much sense, if it were say 60 neo's and 20LR's that could make sense. Where would this leave the 797, QF have been vocal on that so what has been posted above raises more questions than answer's
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qf002
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:07 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Now I read a lot of that as bullsh*t but my friend says this guy has a decent track record of being correct with inside info.


The biggest problem remains aircraft availability, unless the mid-year announcement includes a line that reads “we’re keeping the 744s an extra 2-3 years”. Looking at an additional 6+ frames of flying just in Europe there.
 
thec182wagon
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:27 am

Long time lurker, first time poster.

Interesting about the FF’s prediction,
I guess he just took a punt either way in regards to the 777X.
CMB might be because of the Oneworld partner Sri Lankan’s base there.
Not sure about the double PER-LHR but being QF a monopoly on that route, QF may believe they’ll make more money by having more flights on it.
Possibly the cost of being able to have containerised cargo may give the NEO an advantage, it may not be that expensive as most of the times the manufacturer would tag on free pilot and engineer courses as part of the sale. But I guess, if it is the NEO, it may be a mix of 320s and 321s.
 
redroo
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:40 am

qf789 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
A mate belongs to a private Facebook group for Australian 'very frequent flyers', invitation-only sort of thing, and a member of that group posted this today.

Here's your latest batch of QF goss:
- The Project Sunrise aircraft will be Boeing, and will be announced at mid-year results (apparently will be mediocre compared to last few years, so looking to add some punch for the market)
- The cancelled A380 purchase rights have been converted to A321LRs, which will form the backbone of the 737 replacement program, and do a mix of domestic and shorthaul international flying (would have lie-flat J beds)
- Future QF fleet will be:
* Ultra Longhaul: B789 and B777-?X
* Mid-haul: A380 and A330
* Short-haul: A321LR
- Talk of QF wanting to open up a route to CMB, probably from SYD
- Expect an announcement on CDG and FRA at mid-year results (latest)
- Strong rumour going around LHR base is that the PER-LHR v.v. will go double daily by end of year


Now I read a lot of that as bullsh*t but my friend says this guy has a decent track record of being correct with inside info.

I can't believe CMB. CDG and FRA makes sense because the 'second wave' of B7879 orders starts mid-year. B777X order still sounds like speculation, let's face it, you can say B777X or A350ULR and have a 50/50 chance of being correct! A321LR for short-haul sounds very far-fetched as it would mean complete move away from B737 fleet and that would have to be very expensive, as nice as it would be to have the A321neo instead of B737 on domestic routes.


So in the space of a week we have had a YouTuber claiming it will be A350ULR after speaking to a QF 744 pilot and a ground crew member in PER and now we have this. I agree this is just wild speculation and probably hyperbole. From what I understand the decision will be in October not August at full year results due to the fact that Boeing will be releasing to airlines in August results from testing of the 777-9. I also have it on good authority that Qantas has not made a final decision on Project Sunrise yet.

The next 6 787-9's are suppose to be replacements for 744's, as much as I would like to see double daily PER-LHR plus CDG and FRA announcing them all together or within a short window sounds risky. These 3 routes alone would require 6 787-9's. Now if QF were to announce FRA/CDG in August it would need to start NW20/21 with 789 order with it, that I might believe. Again this leaves a hole, where does the US plans fit into this

On the A321LR's, why would you order all of them LR's when a neo would be fine considering at least 50% of domestic is within 2 hours of each other, that doesn't make much sense, if it were say 60 neo's and 20LR's that could make sense. Where would this leave the 797, QF have been vocal on that so what has been posted above raises more questions than answer's


I have heard nothing about PER LHR going double daily, not FRA or CDG.

As for the 321LR... I just don’t see the value in this aircraft for qantas beyond east coast Bali flying. Where on earth is it going to fly to from Sydney or Melbourne? To be a truely useful aircraft for QF International it would need to do 10 hours. It’s a long way from that.
 
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vhqpa
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:55 am

My two cents on QF future fleet speculation.

I think it's plausible that QF might take around 15-20 A321 neo from the QF group order starting around 2021 for extra capacity on trunk routes and trans tasman, even if it's just a temporary stopgap solution until the MOM/NMA/797 becomes available, then these 321Ns can be sent to a Jetstar operation. These would allow some VX 73H replacements and possibly EBA-EBD.

I'm excited for project sunrise. I flew QF10 back from LHR at the end of last year and it was a great way to come home I can definitely see myself using the service again if my final destination was in UK/ROI. As for double daily PER-LHR The only way I can see it happening is as a temporary slot sitter, once project sunrise is running from the East Coast I can't see QF using another slot for PER. As for imminent european expansion and CMB colour me sceptical with the next batch of 789s to replace current 744 flying, and the ongoing PAPL issues. Having said that I don't have a particular preference for either vendor, I'd he happy either way. If Boeing were to win I can see it bundled with a top up of around 6 further 787s bringing the fleet up to 20 units.
"There you go ladies and gentleman we're through Mach 1 the speed of sound no bumps no bangs... CONCORDE"
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:19 am

I tip complete bull for QF using A321LR as the workhorse of the domestic fleet. The LR is really only needed for Bali or East Coast-Perth trips.
A321neo is plausible, or even a mixture of A321neo and A321LR.

I can't see PER-LHR going double daily either considering the slots situation at LHR unless QF gets a pair of slots back from the lessor (IIRC QF leased out a pair of LHR slots during the period they were in financial trouble).
 
JQ321
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:33 am

With all the rumors about starting FRA/CDG Does anybody know whether they already own slots there or do they plan on purchasing some?
 
SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:35 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
A mate belongs to a private Facebook group for Australian 'very frequent flyers', invitation-only sort of thing, and a member of that group posted this today.

Here's your latest batch of QF goss:
- The Project Sunrise aircraft will be Boeing, and will be announced at mid-year results (apparently will be mediocre compared to last few years, so looking to add some punch for the market)
- The cancelled A380 purchase rights have been converted to A321LRs, which will form the backbone of the 737 replacement program, and do a mix of domestic and shorthaul international flying (would have lie-flat J beds)
- Future QF fleet will be:
* Ultra Longhaul: B789 and B777-?X
* Mid-haul: A380 and A330
* Short-haul: A321LR
- Talk of QF wanting to open up a route to CMB, probably from SYD
- Expect an announcement on CDG and FRA at mid-year results (latest)
- Strong rumour going around LHR base is that the PER-LHR v.v. will go double daily by end of year


Now I read a lot of that as bullsh*t but my friend says this guy has a decent track record of being correct with inside info.

I can't believe CMB. CDG and FRA makes sense because the 'second wave' of B789 orders starts mid-year. B777X order still sounds like speculation, let's face it, you can say B777X or A350ULR and have a 50/50 chance of being correct! A321LR for short-haul sounds very far-fetched as it would mean complete move away from B737 fleet and that would have to be very expensive, as nice as it would be to have the A321neo instead of B737 on domestic routes.


I doubt these "very frequent flyers" have access to inside information. As to the "mid year" results being mediocre, given that the annual results are not due out until August, curious as to how they know the mid-year results for the next financial year already... :roll:

Opening up a route to CMB, ha yeh right :rotfl:

So ultimately these "very frequent flyers" have been talking to the crew during their flights to get these "rumours", given the flight crew are not the most reliable sources of information, second hand information is going to be even less reliable.
319_320_321_332_333_359_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_788_789
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:20 am

They don't need an A321LR to do SYD-DPS, it is well within the range of the standard NEO. I can only see value if they plan to use them to CGK and MNL.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 474
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:36 am

JQ321 wrote:
With all the rumors about starting FRA/CDG Does anybody know whether they already own slots there or do they plan on purchasing some?


AFAIK these are not slot controlled Airports but could be wrong about FRA.

There are relatively few Airports which are slot controlled in the world.
 
TN486T
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 12:04 pm

Good evening all. After what has seemed a long period of sorting out a computer link issue I am now able to view and post again on this forum. Previously known as TN486 I am now TN486T!! A very big thank you to 2 long contributing user members for their assistance. You have made this older Australian a very happy person. cheers.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:51 pm

Re latest rumours, it looks like the right amount of misinformation is getting out there with both Airbus and Boeing getting the gong, supposedly.

Re 2x PER, when do the slot leases to BA at LHR come up for renewal? This might tell us how possible this might be.

Re others, CDG/FRA are not really a step too far so long as there is fleet to run them. I've said a couple of times that CMB might make an interesting feeder hub for Indian flying if they can work with SriLankan so am interested to see where this might go.
 
kriskim
Posts: 422
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:46 pm

I think the A321NEO's have a place in QF's fleet, I'm just not sure if the A321NEOLR will actually form the 'backbone' of the QF fleet as its unnecessary to have that many of that variant considering that QF won't need them for domestic use within Australia. The A321NEO's will be perfect for flying key trunk routes such as the East Coast triangle and for flights to NZ. I wonder if QF does introduce a new A321 fleet, if they would slap "QantasLink" on the livery and get the Network Aviation guys to fly them?

I have heard this rumour that JQ will revert back to an all A320 Family operator, the 788 goes back to QF, with most of the current JQ long haul routes reverted to QF. These guys are claiming that JQ's international long haul ops are loss making therefor it makes sense for the 788 to go back to mainline flying. How credible this is, I'm not too sure.
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:00 am

A lot of the JQ 788s are used mostly to low yielding/family/tourist destinations. I do wonder if some of those routes would survive the move to mainline if the rumours of the 788s being moved back to QF does eventuate.

I can't see HKT, CGO or CNS-KIX surviving the move to mainline. CNS-KIX might be a slim chance of moving to BNE-KIX in that scenario however.
MEL-BKK being converted to mainline does somewhat make sense to some extent. The existing x2-x3 weekly MEL-SIN may as well be covered by QF's existing capacity with that aircraft used elsewhere.
 
moa999
Posts: 978
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:13 am

While the lack of additional investment in JQs 788s including not basing any aircraft in Singapore would suggest they aren't meeting return hurdles, I can't see QF being able to add 11 788s to its fleet profitably, particularly with Sunrise aircraft also adding to the fleet.

Also of note in the region both Scoot and AirAsias continue to expand their widebody LCC fleet.
Scoot has 10 788s and 8 789s with 2 of each on order.
AirAsiaX has 23 333s and a boatload of 339s on order. Thai Air Asia X has 10 333s
It did however close the Indonesia operations which only had 2 333s
And JAL (partner in Jetstar Japan) has announced the separate LCC Zip which will use 788s based at NRT.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:22 am

788s to mainline is certainly a new rumour, but would make some sense.

The A321LR can do DPS, SGN and CNS-Japan. HNL can be supported by Qantas. The real looser is HKT, but the draw down of BKK flying shows how low yielding Thailand has been and the entrance of Air Asia X Thailand is not going to help there. It's probably not a route worth saving.

The 788s would help solve some capacity issues at mainline without having to purchase more 789s. They're already a sunk cost so it would be a smart way to add capacity without significant additional capex.

I'm not sure how winds would factor in to the operational performance, but both SYD-SCL and SYD-JNB are shorter than YVR-BNE.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
ArtV
Posts: 152
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:53 am

kriskim wrote:
….. the 788 goes back to QF, with most of the current JQ long haul routes reverted to QF. These guys are claiming that JQ's international long haul ops are loss making therefor it makes sense for the 788 to go back to mainline flying. How credible this is, I'm not too sure.


If they are loss making on a 788 for JQ, why would they work for QF with its higher cost base? Seems counter-logical in the extreme.
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2019

Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:16 am

All it takes is one person to post some “reliable” source claiming to be in the know and look what happens. A frequent flyer as the source for credible information? Who did they get this information from?
Calm down people.
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