JB flying a few A321neo to the UK, not earth shattering news. You are talking about adding the capacity of one Virgin Atlantic "beach fleet" 747-400 from JFK & Boston to Stansted. Norwegian is way more a "force" then Jetblue will be in this market. These are niche flights in markets full of 744, 777, 787 and A330's. Hey hoping JB can make it work but very limited capacity addition here to the UK market.
DY has no effect on premium market where legacies make their money.
3 B6 flights that will show up on all the corporate searches for BOS-LON is going to make legacies price match in J. If you don't think that's a big deal, I can't help you.
The basic premise here is they are adding not a lot of capacity, so they don't have to discount y that much ot fill the seats. But they are coming in with a much lower J pricing, which is change the premium market.
I am disappointed for the lack of details. Like everyone else, I was expecting actual schedules announced with airports, intro fares, etc. I guess we are going to have to speculate for at least another year. Nevertheless, I think we should recognize that it is a big deal for jetBlue to launch all of these services. It definitely sets them apart from Southwest, Frontier, Spirit, Alaska, etc. I agree with other posters that they could be serving more than one London airport even though I personally don't think that getting LHR slots is going to be a problem for them.
Yes, they even said they could serve multiple London airport to have the right schedule.
Frankly, this announcement is very in line with B6’s nature. It confuses the heck out of competitors since it has some info but not anything specific other than “London”, a Mint 2.0 which will have more than 16 seats and feel like being on a “private plane” (I assume will be all-aisle access, but the aircraft will notbe all-Mint), and confirmation of conversion of 321neo’s to LR. Service will launch sometime in 2021, multiple times a day, from BOS and JFK.
As you can see from my post above, I am confident B6 will do well on these routes, but, let's be clear, this is not going to be a B6 love fest, the competition they will face on these routes will be like nothing they have seen before, the US majors, BA and VS will match their prices AND offer other incentives to keep their premium passengers on their jets rather than B6's.
I will say this again though, I think B6 can find enough people to fill the cabin each day, heck even the wife asked if these flights have an easy US west coast connection (meaning west coast-JFK/BOS-LON)....which with the times that have been posted here it looks like it is possible, so who knows, if the price is right, at least for some B6 fanatics (like my wife) a one stop is actually a viable alternative to a non stop.
of course, given how DL reacted to the mint expansion domestically (didn't work), it would be shocking if they didn't react to B6 entering such a lucrative route. But history has shown that a good product with great service and low cost will do well in the long run. And that's what mint is.
the part i'm eager to see is this "doubling down" of mint. How many seats that will be and which domestic routes will get it. It's too bad they didn't announce more on that.
I’m an aviation analyst on Wall Street for a major firm, and there are some significant aspects that differentiate jetBlue from a lot of other players in the industry: 1) their balance sheet; 2) their poise and pace at which they do things; 3) their relatively low prescriptive operational costs (this does not include costs associated with their delays, cancelations, etc as those factors are construed as non-planned); and perhaps most importantly 4) the large success of their Mint class and 4b) the cost impact that Mint has on other industry players. B6 is one of the most profitable airlines in the industry (based on margin and bottom line earnings) and while so many people are quick to criticize their slow pace of making announcements and business decisions, if we look at the opposite end of the spectrum (fast growth and hasty business decisions) we get- Primera, WOW, Norwegian... the list goes on. Now, I agree that jetBlue may not be the most efficiently managed company and drag their feet all too much and have missed big opportunities and opportune times. If there is an economic downtown in 2020 (which is projected by several analysts/Wall Street firms) this will have immense negative impact on B6’s ability to deliver on their expansion model, and inhibit their margin revenue.
Great points. I think people typically miss out on how low cost of a premium option mint class is. It's CASM is only 5 to 6% higher than 150 seat A320s it was replacing I've posted all the numbers on the JetBlue thread, but it's safe to say that the RASM gain they got was far higher than that. And more importantly, it absolutely killed legacy RASM. But here are a couple of route to think about
BOS-LAX, they have small presence in LAX vs competitors, but are now the yield leader on a route where all the legacies have strong presence at LAX and formidable presence at BOS. Mint has allowed them to run basically system average performance (8 or 9% margin based on my model) while everyone else lose money. Remember, this is a route all the legacies have now converted to lie flat to combat mint.
BOS-SFO, they have limited presence in SFO vs competition, but they are now only behind UA in average fares on this route. And if we factor in UA's connection traffic, they are probably close to even in yield. Again, they are running slightly above system average performance on a route that DL has now stopped offering D1 service and UA is loosing. Remember, this was a route UA dumped 7 flights of lie flat seating overnight to combat mint.
It's hard for me to think how any route could've transformed as much of these 2 routes have in the past 2 years after mint entrance and yet they are making money on them. All due to the low cost of mint. They are not going to offer their own lounge or offer excessive ground service or free upgrades. They are going for the most compact all-aisle access J seating possible on an A321NEO aircraft and that will be how they keep the cost down.
Some chatter in the financial district in London - MIGHT (might not) be LCY with A220s which would not require Shannon fuel stop. But I don't know whether that would still require an all J configuration? And going head to head with BA (who I am sure could blag a couple of A220s if they were up for a fight) with so many BA corporates on the LCY doorstep might be a bad idea!
They have said it's A321LR for Europe service, but quite a few of us have been speculating all-J A220. I think that would be the only way they can make it work given the LCY limitations.
Given how conservative B6 management is, I think we might be overly optimistic.