jumbojet
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:13 pm

The chances of Blue being successful are not guaranteed in this market, not by any stretch. Big, important questions remain; what slot times are they gonna wind up with? What will their irrop plans be to get people home in the likely event of flight delays and cancellations? Also, How many business travelers will want to arrive into London at very unappealing hours? The entrenched carriers have nothing to worry about. Some blue Cool-aide drinkers will have you believe that because DL doesnt fill its daily BOS-LON flights that Blue will be their demise in this market, the same Blue cool-aide drinkers will also have you believe that because DL HAS to charge less for ex-BOS flights and that they lose money hand over fist ex-BOS flights that this also will drive them out of the BOS-LON market. Remember this to, between the 2 JV's plus United, thats over a hundred years of experience Blue is going up against in the LON market. I think MINT 2.0 will be very nice but if you cant get your passengers to London when they need to get there and on-time, its a moot point. Something else no one else has considered, the domestic side of Blues operations will most likely suffer even more as they concentrate on trying to get the LON flights out on time, the domestic end of things will further fall into shambles.

New York to London Market Share by Weekly Seats

BA and AA 48%
VS and DL 28%
UA 13%
Norwegian 11%

A better idea on what Blue is up against in the NY - LON market

BA & AA JV Weekly seats each way 29,000. Weekly flights each way 111 Daily flights each way (most days) 16

VS & DL JV Weekly seats each way 17,000, weekly flights each way 63 and daily flights each way (most days) 9

UA Weekly seats each way 7,489, weekly flights each way 35 and daily flights each way 5

Norwegian Air weekly seats each way 6,422, weekly flights each way 19 and daily flights each way 3

If blue gets 3 daily JFK flights to LON that will give them roughly 5% of the market share, Thats it. I'm pretty sure the majors aren't losing any sleep over this.

BOS to LON Market Share by Weekly Seats

BA 50%
VS & DL 35%
Norwegian 15%

2 blue flights BOS - LON would give them 12% of the market share in Boston which is a much smaller, less competitive market. So, there are only so many seats to go around in BOS. Again, depending on flight times for blue, success could to come by.

So in looking at the market share and the weekly seats, I am pretty sure DL/VS & AA/BA are NOT losing any sleep (like some blue cool-aide drinkers will have you believe).
 
tphuang
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:32 pm

n2dru wrote:
Anyone know where these London slots are coming from, particularly LHR (which are VERY hard to come by without major $$)?

there is the 3 remedial slots that they want to get access to. I think those they have pretty good odds of getting. And then, it comes down to whether or not they can get anything for their complaints to DOT. And also, there is that proposed 25k new slots at LHR that's unrelated to 3rd runway. If that goes through, then B6 will be very happy.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-46794108

Based on their proposed plan, they are looking for 4 slots for JFK and 3 for BOS.

jumbojet wrote:

I think your being a bit to optimistic. The blue cool aide is flowing very freely in your blood stream. Not sure why you think, all of a sudden, people are going to come out of the wood works to fly Blue BOS-LHR and will fill them up 3 x daily. There are plenty of industry pros out there that suggest B6 will be in for the flight of their lives and that success is absolutely not guaranteed, like you seem to suggest.

Of course I'm optimistic. Is it wrong for someone to want more competition and lower prices? Admit it, you are happy B6 is entering this market, because the J fares are going to come down big time on your favourite carrier.

I'm simply pointing out that most industry pros still compare B6 to ULCCs in TATL when it's the furthest away from that. But you should worry about how DL/VS will do when B6 comes in and start taking a healthy chunk of BOS point of sale. It hasn't work out so well for DL to be in a similar situation for BOS-SFO.

It's funny, nobody has problem with B6 entering and loosing money on BOS-ATL/MSP. But for some reason, adding an even more important destination out of JFK/BOS is suddenly the wrong move, especially when it requires no additional fleet type changes?

Remember, it's the J market that they are disrupting, not Y. Y prices are not that outrageous. J fares on JFK/BOS-LHR are way overpriced. 3 flights of 30 J seat each is 90 seat. That's a lot more than 12% market share on BOS-LHR. That might be more than what DL/VS offers right now.
 
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pitbosflyer
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:41 pm

jumbojet wrote:

Not sure why you think, all of a sudden, people are going to come out of the wood works to fly Blue BOS-LHR and will fill them up 3 x daily.


The same people that came out of the woodwork to fill DY's daily 789 to LGW from BOS.
 
Boof02671
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:11 pm

First of all they didn’t say what London airport. And Jetairways just transferred three LHR slot pairs back to Eithad who is their minority owner.
 
winginit
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:38 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
Please link to these “industry pros”. It will be very sad for you, but JetBlue will likely replicate their transcon success to Europe. They have two extensive hubs for feed and are the business person’s airline of choice in BOS. As for your hyperbole that they will be in for the fight of their lives, well they’ve won that fight in their Mint markets versus the legacies.


It is most certainly not true, by virtually any metric, that JetBlue are 'the business person's airline of choice in BOS'. In speaking to large-scale corporate traffic, PRISM will show you that the overwhelmingly largest corporate travel route in/out of BOS is LHR, and as B6 are still years away from serving BOS-LHR I'm not sure how they can be, at present, the business person's airline of choice.

Even if you were referring specifically to domestic corporate travel, the second largest corporate market is, no surprise, LGA, where both AA and DL have double the BOS-LGA capacity that B6 does. Third largest business market? SFO, where UA comes into the equation, and the fourth largest corporate market is CDG, where as you can imagine DL/AF runs the show. Those four markets alone? 18% of contracted corporate travel spend in/out of BOS.

So pray tell, how is it that B6 is 'the business person's airline of choice in BOS'? They hardly compete to a meaningful degree in any of the top business markets.

Bobloblaw wrote:
Where do they get these widebodies from? Pull them off more prosperous markets and flood Boston with seats? Smart move.


Delaying widebody retirements has never been a particularly challenging endeavor for the legacies.
 
jumbojet
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:21 pm

tphuang wrote:

Remember, it's the J market that they are disrupting, not Y. Y prices are not that outrageous. J fares on JFK/BOS-LHR are way overpriced. 3 flights of 30 J seat each is 90 seat. That's a lot more than 12% market share on BOS-LHR. That might be more than what DL/VS offers right now.


Blue isnt going to be disrupting J fares, not with a very small fraction of J seats going across the pond. to think otherwise is very foolish. This is not LAX/SFO where if blue wants to add a flight or two they can. Its a lot different. Plus, Blue says they think J fares are way overpriced...Lets see what they are charging after they've been in the market for a few years. They will be right up there with the big boys. Oh, and you still haven't addressed what their IRROP plan will be when a day or two worth of flights get cancelled for whatever reason, and how they plan on making attractive very unappealing arrival and departure times into/out of LHR to the business man/woman. Honestly, I cant say I clearly seeing Blue succeeding in the LON market. Its not the cake walk you think it will be.

And another thing you need to remember, DL is THE most profitable airline in the world, so whether or not BOS-SFO, BOS - LAX or BOS - XXX prints money is really irrelevant. you seem to be hung up on the thought that every route needs to print money. Guess you dont understand business 101 very well.

And Blue needs to be more thorough and descriptive when they talk about the 'high' price of J fares to LON. Of course last minute J fares to LON are very high and guess what, they should be. But if I want to buy a DL J fare to LON now for a flight in September, I can do it for under $3,700.00.

Blue will not succeed in LON by charging very cheap walk up J fares. Of course they will at the onset but give it time and they to will jack up their fares. To believe otherwise is ignorance.

I would actually pay twice as much to avoid Blue. Their operational performance is the worst out of all the US airlines. Why would I pay ANYTHING to fly them with operational rankings as low as what they have? All they care about is getting MINT flights out on time, everything else suffers. Thats no way to run an airline.
 
tphuang
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:44 pm

winginit wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
Please link to these “industry pros”. It will be very sad for you, but JetBlue will likely replicate their transcon success to Europe. They have two extensive hubs for feed and are the business person’s airline of choice in BOS. As for your hyperbole that they will be in for the fight of their lives, well they’ve won that fight in their Mint markets versus the legacies.


It is most certainly not true, by virtually any metric, that JetBlue are 'the business person's airline of choice in BOS'. In speaking to large-scale corporate traffic, PRISM will show you that the overwhelmingly largest corporate travel route in/out of BOS is LHR, and as B6 are still years away from serving BOS-LHR I'm not sure how they can be, at present, the business person's airline of choice.

Even if you were referring specifically to domestic corporate travel, the second largest corporate market is, no surprise, LGA, where both AA and DL have double the BOS-LGA capacity that B6 does. Third largest business market? SFO, where UA comes into the equation, and the fourth largest corporate market is CDG, where as you can imagine DL/AF runs the show. Those four markets alone? 18% of contracted corporate travel spend in/out of BOS.

So pray tell, how is it that B6 is 'the business person's airline of choice in BOS'? They hardly compete to a meaningful degree in any of the top business markets.


You are quoting stuff based on dollar amount, not on number of flights. They have very competitive schedule to DCA/PHL/ORD/EWR/RDU/JFK/BWI. All very large domestic markets while they may not be high in dollar amount per flight, but are also very important for corporate travel.

Nobody said B6 is the soul provider of corporate client in BOS, but they have said many times that they have corporate contract with all except for 1 firm out of BOS. And in order to become an even larger part of their corporate spending, they need to fly to London.

It's hard to say they don't have a competitive offering for SFO when they have 1 fewer flight on most days than UA. It's hard to see how they can be thought of as not competitive on that route when they have almost the same average fare as UA despite not having as many connection traffic to fill up the planes. Please explain why you think that's not competitive?

And once DL enters BOS-DCA and B6 add their 3 flights, it will be a larger market than BOS-LGA.

If they are not dominating in BOS point of sale in business markets, how do they consistently do so well in them when the other end of the market is completely dominated by a legacy?

Delaying widebody retirements has never been a particularly challenging endeavor for the legacies.

Well, BA already has its largest widebody on these routes. DL/VS could upgauge further but it's just going to have even more trouble filling BOS-LHR.

Blue isnt going to be disrupting J fares, not with a very small fraction of J seats going across the pond. to think otherwise is very foolish. This is not LAX/SFO where if blue wants to add a flight or two they can. Its a lot different. Plus, Blue says they think J fares are way overpriced...Lets see what they are charging after they've been in the market for a few years. They will be right up there with the big boys. Oh, and you still haven't addressed what their IRROP plan will be when a day or two worth of flights get cancelled for whatever reason, and how they plan on making attractive very unappealing arrival and departure times into/out of LHR to the business man/woman. Honestly, I cant say I clearly seeing Blue succeeding in the LON market. Its not the cake walk you think it will be.

And another thing you need to remember, DL is THE most profitable airline in the world, so whether or not BOS-SFO, BOS - LAX or BOS - XXX prints money is really irrelevant. you seem to be hung up on the thought that every route needs to print money. Guess you dont understand business 101 very well.

Considering DL's size, their only competition for most profitable airline by total profit are UA/AA. Is it so impressive they do better than UA/AA? WN certainly runs better margin than them. In Q4, even B6 had better margin than them. But keep beating their drum.

Yes, I agree they will charge just as high as legacies in a couple of years, because they are not a low fare carrier. However, they will move that price point to a much lower level, because that's what they do.

As for succeeding in Lon, I think it's a lot easier to do well in London than to ATL or CLT or MSP. All important business markets they need to fly to.

For irrops, I think first of all they will run a much better operation for TATL than their general domerstic operation. Because it will be a dedicated fleet and get prioritized over leisure market. They already do better operationally on mint vs rest of their network. Not a high bar, but point is they will prioritize this type of routes. In the even of IRROPs, they have interline agreement that will allow them to place passengers on FI, EI and TP. Happy?
 
winginit
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:55 pm

tphuang wrote:
You are quoting stuff based on dollar amount, not on number of flights. They have very competitive schedule to DCA/PHL/ORD/EWR/RDU/JFK/BWI. All very large domestic markets while they may not be high in dollar amount per flight, but are also very important for corporate travel.


Let's be very clear as to what was said here, with no evidence:

"[JetBlue] are the business person’s airline of choice in BOS"

Do you agree with that statement? My argument is that that statement is not true.

tphuang wrote:
Nobody said B6 is the soul provider of corporate client in BOS, but they have said many times that they have corporate contract with all except for 1 firm out of BOS.


*sole. Yes, that's all good and well, but it does nothing to show that "Jetblue are the business person's airline of choice in BOS". I'd guess it's highly unlikely that virtually any of those BOS-based firms who contract with B6 don't also contract with either AA, DL, or both.

tphuang wrote:
And in order to become an even larger part of their corporate spending, they need to fly to London.


Right you are. Said differently, in that they don't cover London, JetBlue are very much not the BOS business person's airline of choice, but to move towards that goal they certainly need to serve London which they now intend to do.

tphuang wrote:
It's hard to say they don't have a competitive offering for SFO when they have 1 fewer flight on most days than UA. It's hard to see how they can be thought of as not competitive on that route when they have almost the same average fare as UA despite not having as many connection traffic to fill up the planes. Please explain why you think that's not competitive?


Maybe not competitive was improper word choice. They have less capacity when compared to UA on the SFO-BOS route (a route that DL also serves), so they are less competitive than United in their product offering.

tphuang wrote:
If they are not dominating in BOS point of sale in business markets, how do they consistently do so well in them when the other end of the market is completely dominated by a legacy?


In that they do not even serve two of the top five business markets out of BOS and grossly under-serve the top domestic business market out of BOS - they do not dominate BOS PoS in business markets.
 
Andy33
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:59 pm

VS11 wrote:
Cunard wrote:

All these remarks and comments regarding JetBlue and LHR are generally coming from those in the USA, those of us from the UK who are more familiar with LHR are more realistic about the situation and don't for one minute anticipate JetBlue flying into LHR.



Yes. The American attitude is that you can solve any problem by throwing enough money at it. Money is still very cheap to borrow. The Federal Reserve is pausing rates increases and indicates readiness to lower rates if the need be. In what could very soon be a deflationary environment, buying LHR slots is a great investment on its own. I don’t know why you are assuming jetBlue is not ready to chip in the money. Also, they can lease slots, at least in the beginning.

And the third LHR runway is still supposed to go ahead, yes? Isn’t that going to create new slots? JetBlue can lease slots until the new runway is operational. I think we should stop doubting that jetBlue is willing to go all in on London.


Unfortunately while the government has said the third runway is acceptable, nobody has actually approved any specific plans. What with the usual legal challenges from environmental campaigners, there's little hope of anything actually being completed before the late 2020s. And while it might well be possible to lease some slots, slots at times that suit transatlantic passengers are another matter. After all, most of these are already being used for transatlantic services!
I suppose cosying up to Etihad, who actually own the slots used by both Alitalia and Jet Airways, might produce some results, but these slots are optimised for European shorthaul and for flights to/from India respectively. Don't forget slots at UK airports are time specific. Airlines have even had slots confiscated for consistently breaching the time they are set for.
 
jumbojet
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:13 pm

Lets talk a little bit more about how tphuang thinks Blue is going to come waltzing through the door as a LON incumbent and completely and totally disrupt the J fare market.

1. If Blue is even able to get 5 flights a day into LHR, 3x JFK and 2x BOS, they sure as heck won't be 'prime time' business slots that business travelers crave and need On top of that, 3 flights a day from JFK is hardly a schedule that a business can put to good use, especially when you have AA/BA running a near hourly operation and DL/VS not far behind. Which brings up another point, I believe AA/BA have nearly 600 business class seats a day on JFK-LHR and DL/VS has close to 300 for a combined total of 900 business class seats a day (and with what UA has at EWR), there is no way on gods green earth Blue puts even a dent in the J fare market. If Blue does get the 3 JFK - LHR flights a day, which, is the preferred LON airport, and each A321 has lets say, 30 MINT seats, that gives them 90 a day to LHR, a tenth of what the big boys have. How does that disrupt the J fare market? And again, Blue is probably looking at off peak arrivals and departures into and out of LHR, which doesnt help their cause.

Will/could Blue still fill up the planes? Yeah, of course they can but I would stop way short of saying they are going to disrupt the J fare LON market.
Last edited by jumbojet on Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
tphuang
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:24 pm

winginit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
You are quoting stuff based on dollar amount, not on number of flights. They have very competitive schedule to DCA/PHL/ORD/EWR/RDU/JFK/BWI. All very large domestic markets while they may not be high in dollar amount per flight, but are also very important for corporate travel.


Let's be very clear as to what was said here, with no evidence:

"[JetBlue] are the business person’s airline of choice in BOS"

Do you agree with that statement? My argument is that that statement is not true.

tphuang wrote:
Nobody said B6 is the soul provider of corporate client in BOS, but they have said many times that they have corporate contract with all except for 1 firm out of BOS.


*sole. Yes, that's all good and well, but it does nothing to show that "Jetblue are the business person's airline of choice in BOS". I'd guess it's highly unlikely that virtually any of those BOS-based firms who contract with B6 don't also contract with either AA, DL, or both.

tphuang wrote:
And in order to become an even larger part of their corporate spending, they need to fly to London.


Right you are. Said differently, in that they don't cover London, JetBlue are very much not the BOS business person's airline of choice, but to move towards that goal they certainly need to serve London which they now intend to do.

tphuang wrote:
It's hard to say they don't have a competitive offering for SFO when they have 1 fewer flight on most days than UA. It's hard to see how they can be thought of as not competitive on that route when they have almost the same average fare as UA despite not having as many connection traffic to fill up the planes. Please explain why you think that's not competitive?


Maybe not competitive was improper word choice. They have less capacity when compared to UA on the SFO-BOS route (a route that DL also serves), so they are less competitive than United in their product offering.

tphuang wrote:
If they are not dominating in BOS point of sale in business markets, how do they consistently do so well in them when the other end of the market is completely dominated by a legacy?


In that they do not even serve two of the top five business markets out of BOS and grossly under-serve the top domestic business market out of BOS - they do not dominate BOS PoS in business markets.


DL has one flight a day on BOS-SFO for half of the year and served with 757 with no lie flat seating. When you equate that to 5x daily of B6, that's a bit of misdirection, don't you think?

How do they gross under-served top domestic business market when LGA is the only one where they have significantly lower frequency than competitors? If they don't dominate BOS PoS, how do they get close to the same yield as AA mainline to DCA/PHL, same yield as WN to BWI, within 10% of AA yield to ORD, higher yield than DL 717s to RDU and almost same as UA to SFO and highest yield to LAX? Are you going to argue that they have presence in those other markets? If they don't grab a huge portion of BOS business and Point of sale, how do they get so close to the yield of legacy carriers with huge hubs on the other end?

I think you are focusing too much on those 2 international markets and not seeing the success they have in domestic business markets.
 
Etheereal
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:27 pm

I havent been on Europe yet, specially not the UK. But if B6 can offer me a GREAT Mint price, you can bet Ill travel to the UK for the first time ever with them and not AV´s 789.
JetBuddy wrote:
"737 slides off the runway" is the new "Florida man"..

:lol:
 
tphuang
Posts: 3249
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:28 pm

jumbojet wrote:
Lets talk a little bit more about how tphuang thinks Blue is going to come waltzing through the door as a LON incumbent and completely and totally disrupt the J fare market.

1. If Blue is even able to get 5 flights a day into LHR, 3x JFK and 2x BOS, they sure as heck won't be 'prime time' business slots that business travelers crave and need On top of that, 3 flights a day from JFK is hardly a schedule that a business can put to good use, especially when you have AA/BA running a near hourly operation and DL/VS not far behind. Which brings up another point, I believe AA/BA have nearly 600 business class seats a day on JFK-LHR and DL/VS has close to 300 for a combined total of 900 business class seats a day (and with what UA has at EWR), there is no way on gods green earth Blue puts even a dent in the J fare market. If Blue does get the 3 JFK - LHR flights a day, which, is the preferred LON airport, and each A321 has lets say, 30 MINT seats, that gives them 90 a day to LHR, a tenth of what the big boys have. How does that disrupt the J fare market? And again, Blue is probably looking at off peak arrivals and departures into and out of LHR, which doesnt help their cause.

if they get 5 slots, it will be 2x JFK and 3x BOS. If they get 3 slots, it will be 3x BOS and JFK flies out of LGW. The only way BOS doesn't get most of the slots they need is if they get remedial slots that are for NYC-LON market alone and cna't be transferred.

I think the disruption they will cause is most likely going to be on BOS side. For JFK, they will be fine with leisure traffic + price sensitive corporate traffic from day 1. All depends on slot situation. That's the biggest factor in this.

Are you hoping for higher prices on JFK-LHR? Not sure your angle on this.
 
winginit
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Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:30 pm

tphuang wrote:
DL has one flight a day on BOS-SFO for half of the year and served with 757 with no lie flat seating. When you equate that to 5x daily of B6, that's a bit of misdirection, don't you think?


It would be a misdirection if I had said it in a form that wasn't a simple parenthetical as an aside to the proper comparison of B6 and UA. We can cherry pick routes or we can address the underlying statement that spurred this discussion in the first place:

"[JetBlue] are the business person’s airline of choice in BOS"

Do you think that statement is true or false? It's a one word answer.
 
jumbojet
Posts: 2903
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 3:01 am

Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:32 pm

you keep dancing around my question; how is Blue going to disrupt the J far LON market? AA/BA & DL/VS nearly 1000 J seats a day VS maybe 90 a day for Blue, at most likely off peak travel times for blue. And blue will need a better IRROP plan if they think stranding someone in London for a few days will be acceptable.
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:39 pm

winginit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
DL has one flight a day on BOS-SFO for half of the year and served with 757 with no lie flat seating. When you equate that to 5x daily of B6, that's a bit of misdirection, don't you think?


It would be a misdirection if I had said it in a form that wasn't a simple parenthetical as an aside to the proper comparison of B6 and UA. We can cherry pick routes or we can address the underlying statement that spurred this discussion in the first place:

"[JetBlue] are the business person’s airline of choice in BOS"

Do you think that statement is true or false? It's a one word answer.


For domestic, I think they are, although AA is not far behind. For domestic + international, I would say AA due to OneWorld strength. After all, business travellers need to use miles for leisure also and they are far and away the biggest leisure carrier at BOS. The only large domestic market you can truly say they don't offer competitive schedule to are LGA and DFW. Imo, they are going to get to probably 220 to 230 flights a day out of BOS. Hard to imagine they don't get even more competitive on these domestic routes.

But really depends on the person's travel preference. As much as I like them, I don't fly them these days out of NYC because I do mostly international travel and their transcon J fares are rarely cheaper than AA.

you keep dancing around my question; how is Blue going to disrupt the J far LON market? AA/BA & DL/VS nearly 1000 J seats a day VS maybe 90 a day for Blue, at most likely off peak travel times for blue. And blue will need a better IRROP plan if they think stranding someone in London for a few days will be acceptable.

didn't i just answer IRROP a couple of messages ago?

As I said before on JFK-LHR, it really depends on how many slots they get.
 
jumbojet
Posts: 2903
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 3:01 am

Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:31 pm

tphuang wrote:
winginit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
DL has one flight a day on BOS-SFO for half of the year and served with 757 with no lie flat seating. When you equate that to 5x daily of B6, that's a bit of misdirection, don't you think?


It would be a misdirection if I had said it in a form that wasn't a simple parenthetical as an aside to the proper comparison of B6 and UA. We can cherry pick routes or we can address the underlying statement that spurred this discussion in the first place:

"[JetBlue] are the business person’s airline of choice in BOS"

Do you think that statement is true or false? It's a one word answer.


For domestic, I think they are, although AA is not far behind. For domestic + international, I would say AA due to OneWorld strength. After all, business travellers need to use miles for leisure also and they are far and away the biggest leisure carrier at BOS. The only large domestic market you can truly say they don't offer competitive schedule to are LGA and DFW. Imo, they are going to get to probably 220 to 230 flights a day out of BOS. Hard to imagine they don't get even more competitive on these domestic routes.

But really depends on the person's travel preference. As much as I like them, I don't fly them these days out of NYC because I do mostly international travel and their transcon J fares are rarely cheaper than AA.

you keep dancing around my question; how is Blue going to disrupt the J far LON market? AA/BA & DL/VS nearly 1000 J seats a day VS maybe 90 a day for Blue, at most likely off peak travel times for blue. And blue will need a better IRROP plan if they think stranding someone in London for a few days will be acceptable.

didn't i just answer IRROP a couple of messages ago?

As I said before on JFK-LHR, it really depends on how many slots they get.


We'll see how IRROPS goes for blue when a few days worth of cancelled flights destroys their credibility.

So now, you admit, its entirely possible that blue isnt going to disrupt the JFK - LON J market after all? I think I know the answer to this, as do you, and its also a one word answer. I'll give you hint, the word starts with a 'N'. Seat for seat, maybe a disruption. Best case scenario, a ratio of 1 - 10, not a snow balls chance in hell.

As with everything Blue does, I will absolutely enjoy and relish the money they will be saving me when I go to buy my business class ticket on Delta. I will thank them to no end as it will give me extra money to spend on other Delta tickets. I will be forever grateful to blue for that; but in no way shape or form will it get me to fly them.
 
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pitbosflyer
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:46 pm

jumbojet wrote:

As with everything Blue does, I will absolutely enjoy and relish the money they will be saving me when I go to buy my business class ticket on Delta. I will thank them to no end as it will give me extra money to spend on other Delta tickets. I will be forever grateful to blue for that; but in no way shape or form will it get me to fly them.


...bro we get it, you adore DL.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 7:29 pm

winginit wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
Please link to these “industry pros”. It will be very sad for you, but JetBlue will likely replicate their transcon success to Europe. They have two extensive hubs for feed and are the business person’s airline of choice in BOS. As for your hyperbole that they will be in for the fight of their lives, well they’ve won that fight in their Mint markets versus the legacies.


It is most certainly not true, by virtually any metric, that JetBlue are 'the business person's airline of choice in BOS'. In speaking to large-scale corporate traffic, PRISM will show you that the overwhelmingly largest corporate travel route in/out of BOS is LHR, and as B6 are still years away from serving BOS-LHR I'm not sure how they can be, at present, the business person's airline of choice.

Even if you were referring specifically to domestic corporate travel, the second largest corporate market is, no surprise, LGA, where both AA and DL have double the BOS-LGA capacity that B6 does. Third largest business market? SFO, where UA comes into the equation, and the fourth largest corporate market is CDG, where as you can imagine DL/AF runs the show. Those four markets alone? 18% of contracted corporate travel spend in/out of BOS.

So pray tell, how is it that B6 is 'the business person's airline of choice in BOS'? They hardly compete to a meaningful degree in any of the top business markets.

Bobloblaw wrote:
Where do they get these widebodies from? Pull them off more prosperous markets and flood Boston with seats? Smart move.


Delaying widebody retirements has never been a particularly challenging endeavor for the legacies.

There is no way that London is the largest business market from BOS. JetBlue is the favored carrier by business people from BOS. What you’re not understanding is that united maybe the largest in the SFO market but their primary passenger originated in SFO not BOS. No carrier serves more business destinations from BOS than JetBlue. That’s what matters not cherry picking a few routes like you did. I can see that JetBlue announcing Europe has hit a very raw nerve with some people who are frankly seem to be in a panic for some reason.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 7:30 pm

jumbojet wrote:
tphuang wrote:
winginit wrote:

It would be a misdirection if I had said it in a form that wasn't a simple parenthetical as an aside to the proper comparison of B6 and UA. We can cherry pick routes or we can address the underlying statement that spurred this discussion in the first place:

"[JetBlue] are the business person’s airline of choice in BOS"

Do you think that statement is true or false? It's a one word answer.


For domestic, I think they are, although AA is not far behind. For domestic + international, I would say AA due to OneWorld strength. After all, business travellers need to use miles for leisure also and they are far and away the biggest leisure carrier at BOS. The only large domestic market you can truly say they don't offer competitive schedule to are LGA and DFW. Imo, they are going to get to probably 220 to 230 flights a day out of BOS. Hard to imagine they don't get even more competitive on these domestic routes.

But really depends on the person's travel preference. As much as I like them, I don't fly them these days out of NYC because I do mostly international travel and their transcon J fares are rarely cheaper than AA.

you keep dancing around my question; how is Blue going to disrupt the J far LON market? AA/BA & DL/VS nearly 1000 J seats a day VS maybe 90 a day for Blue, at most likely off peak travel times for blue. And blue will need a better IRROP plan if they think stranding someone in London for a few days will be acceptable.

didn't i just answer IRROP a couple of messages ago?

As I said before on JFK-LHR, it really depends on how many slots they get.


We'll see how IRROPS goes for blue when a few days worth of cancelled flights destroys their credibility.

So now, you admit, its entirely possible that blue isnt going to disrupt the JFK - LON J market after all? I think I know the answer to this, as do you, and its also a one word answer. I'll give you hint, the word starts with a 'N'. Seat for seat, maybe a disruption. Best case scenario, a ratio of 1 - 10, not a snow balls chance in hell.

As with everything Blue does, I will absolutely enjoy and relish the money they will be saving me when I go to buy my business class ticket on Delta. I will thank them to no end as it will give me extra money to spend on other Delta tickets. I will be forever grateful to blue for that; but in no way shape or form will it get me to fly them.

You’re very petty.
 
Boof02671
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 7:38 pm

You have zero statistics to back up your claim. AA is adding A321t service from BOS to LAX.
 
tphuang
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 7:41 pm

all the details of yield numbers out of BOS are posted on the jetblue thread. Feel free to go there and look at it if you think I'm making stuff up.
 
Boof02671
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 7:43 pm

Logan doesn’t break it down by airline on its own webpage
 
winginit
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:28 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
There is no way that London is the largest business market from BOS.


By revenue it 100% is. Sorry to burst your bubble?

Bobloblaw wrote:
JetBlue is the favored carrier by business people from BOS.


Prove it.

Bobloblaw wrote:
That’s what matters not cherry picking a few routes like you did.


Cherry picking a few routes? I showed the top corporate routes by revenue - straight from prism. Looking forward to your data. Don’t have data? Then shhhh....
 
tphuang
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:42 pm

this is domestically for Boston for 12 month ending January by passenger count.
https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports. ... irport=BOS

Winginit, I already give you plenty of evidence that B6 dominates point of sale at BOS on business routes. If that doesn't prove B6's strength in BOS corporate travel community, I don't know what would. Unless you think B6 just picked every non-business passengers on these routes. It would be nice if you could provide some counters. Your metric of by revenue is intentionally understating an airline that doesn't fly to Europe. But as soon as they fly to London in 2021, that will completely change right? And B6 will not suddenly become more dominant in BOS overnight.
Last edited by tphuang on Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
LurveBus
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:43 pm

Why does B6 have to duke it out in LHR or LGW though? Why can’t they just fit some A220s in an all-mint config and go to LCY? That would probably make more money
 
Bluewho
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:51 pm

jumbojet wrote:
tphuang wrote:
winginit wrote:

It would be a misdirection if I had said it in a form that wasn't a simple parenthetical as an aside to the proper comparison of B6 and UA. We can cherry pick routes or we can address the underlying statement that spurred this discussion in the first place:

"[JetBlue] are the business person’s airline of choice in BOS"

Do you think that statement is true or false? It's a one word answer.


For domestic, I think they are, although AA is not far behind. For domestic + international, I would say AA due to OneWorld strength. After all, business travellers need to use miles for leisure also and they are far and away the biggest leisure carrier at BOS. The only large domestic market you can truly say they don't offer competitive schedule to are LGA and DFW. Imo, they are going to get to probably 220 to 230 flights a day out of BOS. Hard to imagine they don't get even more competitive on these domestic routes.

But really depends on the person's travel preference. As much as I like them, I don't fly them these days out of NYC because I do mostly international travel and their transcon J fares are rarely cheaper than AA.

you keep dancing around my question; how is Blue going to disrupt the J far LON market? AA/BA & DL/VS nearly 1000 J seats a day VS maybe 90 a day for Blue, at most likely off peak travel times for blue. And blue will need a better IRROP plan if they think stranding someone in London for a few days will be acceptable.

didn't i just answer IRROP a couple of messages ago?

As I said before on JFK-LHR, it really depends on how many slots they get.


We'll see how IRROPS goes for blue when a few days worth of cancelled flights destroys their credibility.

So now, you admit, its entirely possible that blue isnt going to disrupt the JFK - LON J market after all? I think I know the answer to this, as do you, and its also a one word answer. I'll give you hint, the word starts with a 'N'. Seat for seat, maybe a disruption. Best case scenario, a ratio of 1 - 10, not a snow balls chance in hell.

As with everything Blue does, I will absolutely enjoy and relish the money they will be saving me when I go to buy my business class ticket on Delta. I will thank them to no end as it will give me extra money to spend on other Delta tickets. I will be forever grateful to blue for that; but in no way shape or form will it get me to fly them.



Now now I think you said long ago you flew on mint and it was nice.

Respectfully I think you are missing what is going on here as many are.

The announcement that everyone was upset about was pretty much our old state of the airline announcement that we had under barger. This was for the company not the press. It was where we are/were and where we are going. That’s it. When the mint details come out I expect more press.

The other thing is jetblue is not saying they want to dominate or anything like that. They just see where the combo of mint the airports of BOS and JFK and the 321lr will make money vs going other places. That’s it full stop.

JetBlue does not want to be Delta they just want to do their thing. Like Trader Joe’s does not want to be publix or does target want to be Walmart.

There is plenty of room for a few 321lrs.
 
winginit
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:17 pm

tphuang wrote:
Your metric of by revenue is intentionally understating an airline that doesn't fly to Europe.


Of course it does! Because, and this may be breaking news here, but business travelers, especially for some of the the firms who have a large BOS presence like Deloitte, PwC, Fidelity, Raytheon, and Accenture... wait for it... they fly internationally! For business! Namely to places like LHR, CDG etc. To downplay or ignore the international piece when it comes to the preferences of BOS-based business travelers is comical. It's the very reason B6 is expanding!

Even domestically, let's look at the top 10 business routes by pax instead of revenue if that's the metric you prefer:LGA, ORD, EWR, PHL, DCA, SFO, ATL, DFW, LAX, MSP.

In which of those markets does B6 have a commanding capacity presence? I'll let you in on a secret... it's none of them.

LGA: 3rd behind DL and AA
ORD: 3rd behind AA and UA
EWR: 2nd behind UA
PHL: 2nd behind AA
DCA: 2nd behind AA
SFO: 2nd behind UA
ATL: 2nd behind DL
DFW: 2nd behind AA
LAX: 2nd behind AA
MSP: 2nd behind DL

I'll make my statement outright. At present, the carrier of choice for business travelers in BOS is not B6, it's (still) AA on account of their presence in key business markets and the international piece. Has been since before B6 was even born.

B6 is unquestionably strong in BOS, but just look at their top BOS routes by capacity: MCO, DCA, PBI, FLL, RSW. Four of those five are straight up leisure.
Last edited by winginit on Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
emuwarveteran
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:37 pm

Knowing London they could just build an entirely new airport for B6
CL CRJ9, W6 A320
 
tphuang
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 1:42 am

winginit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Your metric of by revenue is intentionally understating an airline that doesn't fly to Europe.


Of course it does! Because, and this may be breaking news here, but business travelers, especially for some of the the firms who have a large BOS presence like Deloitte, PwC, Fidelity, Raytheon, and Accenture... wait for it... they fly internationally! For business! Namely to places like LHR, CDG etc. To downplay or ignore the international piece when it comes to the preferences of BOS-based business travelers is comical. It's the very reason B6 is expanding!

Based on your logic. If my company flies 10 times a year to tokyo and pays $8000 per R/T in J and fly 250 times a year to BOS and pay $300 R/T, then Tokyo is a bigger market for us due to the higher revenue, even though we fly to BOS 25 times more. That's the downfall in your logic.

Even domestically, let's look at the top 10 business routes by pax instead of revenue if that's the metric you prefer:LGA, ORD, EWR, PHL, DCA, SFO, ATL, DFW, LAX, MSP.

I don't see how MSP is higher demand airport than BWI.

In which of those markets does B6 have a commanding capacity presence? I'll let you in on a secret... it's none of them.

LGA: 3rd behind DL and AA
ORD: 3rd behind AA and UA
EWR: 2nd behind UA
PHL: 2nd behind AA
DCA: 2nd behind AA
SFO: 2nd behind UA
ATL: 2nd behind DL
DFW: 2nd behind AA
LAX: 2nd behind AA
MSP: 2nd behind DL

I'll make my statement outright. At present, the carrier of choice for business travelers in BOS is not B6, it's (still) AA on account of their presence in key business markets and the international piece. Has been since before B6 was even born.

B6 is unquestionably strong in BOS, but just look at their top BOS routes by capacity: MCO, DCA, PBI, FLL, RSW. Four of those five are straight up leisure.

A few things:

B6 is the only carrier in all of these markets + all the second tier business markets. Once you get to the 2nd tier, you will see how many of these markets B6 dominate. And guess what, having direct flights to all the places they travel to is a big deal.

They are the market leaders to LA area right now. On top of the 4 flights to LAX, they also have 2 flights to LGB and BUR, which would give them the highest capacity to the region. And they only operate one fewer daily flight to LAX itself while generating 20% higher yield. The fact that AA is willing to run bleed money for market share reasons shouldn't be held against B6.

To Bay area, they also have as many flights as UA when you count in their flights to SJC & OAK.

Very soon, they will have same number of flights as AA to DCA.

Legacy carriers also carry a lot of connection traffic through their hubs. If you just pick O&D numbers, it will change passenger count quite a bit.

Since Legacies normally control point of sale on their end. If B6 is not selling most of BOS side passengers, who are they possibly filling the cabins with? They get price matched everywhere, so clearly they have to be picked by BOS passengers if they are able to fill up the planes.

As AA has found in NYC, corporate passengers don't just fly to top business locations. All these corporate types have corporate parties in Florida, they go to their homes in Florida once a month, they hold corporate parties in Vegas and they go with their families to the Caribbeans. If you don't serve leisure, secondary business locations as well as top business locations, corporate types are not going to pick your airline.

If AA is the preferred business carrier out of DCA and BOS, there is absolutely no reason for it to not have a huge revenue premium over B6 on BOS-DCA. Same with BOS-PHL and BOS-ORD. B6 is now offering pretty solid schedule on all of these routes. AA is just getting between 0 to 15% higher fares on these routes depending on the quarter and that doesn't even factor in all the connection traffic.
 
by738
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:10 am

Although jumping the gun, It seems any future TA A220 ops would not necessarily be from LON and is likely to be a more regional seasonal service in the first instance. But thats away down the line. LHR will most definitely be the LON arrival point. Good luck!
 
Cunard
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:17 am

VS11

IF and that's a huge big awesome IF!

IF Heathrow finally gets it's long awaited third runway we're looking at least ten years away before any aircraft hits the tarmac on that third runway. Considering the political environment in the United Kingdom at the moment the chances of that runway ever getting full planning permission and actually being built is waining by the day. I've always been a huge fan of the planned third runway at LHR but at this present time it's looking very unlikely that it will ever happen to be honest.

Andy33 sums it up well enough.
Last edited by Cunard on Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
94 Countries, 327 Destinations Worldwide, 32 Airlines, 29 Aircraft Types, 182 Airports, 335 Flights.
 
Cunard
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:23 am

emuwarveteran wrote:
Knowing London they could just build an entirely new airport for B6


Knowing London!!!

Do you actually know London?

Who would actually pay for this ''entirely new airport for B6''? And more to point where do you propose they build this mythical airport?

Someone posted on another thread regarding Emirates the B773 and London City Airport in the same sentence, your comments fit into the same category as his!
94 Countries, 327 Destinations Worldwide, 32 Airlines, 29 Aircraft Types, 182 Airports, 335 Flights.
 
winginit
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 4:26 am

tphuang wrote:
Based on your logic. If my company flies 10 times a year to tokyo and pays $8000 per R/T in J and fly 250 times a year to BOS and pay $300 R/T, then Tokyo is a bigger market for us due to the higher revenue, even though we fly to BOS 25 times more. That's the downfall in your logic.


It's a simple matter of chasing volume versus chasing revenue. For a lot of business travel it's a mix, and that international travel can often dictate broader loyalty. AA/DL serve key international destinations from BOS - B6 do not.

tphuang wrote:
I don't see how MSP is higher demand airport than BWI.


My data source is prism as I've stated, which strictly isolates agency-booked corporate travel. Per prism, MSP has more corporate travel from BOS than BWI.

tphuang wrote:
B6 is the only carrier in all of these markets + all the second tier business markets. Once you get to the 2nd tier, you will see how many of these markets B6 dominate. And guess what, having direct flights to all the places they travel to is a big deal.


It really isn't a big deal though. The heavy corporate bookers in BOS are big Consulting, Accounting, Banks, and to a slightly lesser extent Pharma and Tech; and their travel patterns are such that the top 15 or so destinations are going to comprise nearly half of all of the corporate spend or more than half of the corporate passenger movements.

tphuang wrote:
They are the market leaders to LA area right now. On top of the 4 flights to LAX, they also have 2 flights to LGB and BUR, which would give them the highest capacity to the region. And they only operate one fewer daily flight to LAX itself while generating 20% higher yield.


Let's not pretend LGB or even BUR are relevant for corporate travel

tphuang wrote:
The fact that AA is willing to run bleed money for market share reasons shouldn't be held against B6.


And yet it dictates preference nonetheless.

tphuang wrote:
To Bay area, they also have as many flights as UA when you count in their flights to SJC & OAK.


No. They don't.

For the year ending April 2019, UA has 4,634 flights between BOS and SFO/SJC/BUR. 783K seats. B6 has 4,170 flights and 656K seats. Those numbers aren't the same last I checked.

tphuang wrote:
Very soon, they will have same number of flights as AA to DCA.


And yet today they don't do they.

tphuang wrote:
Since Legacies normally control point of sale on their end. If B6 is not selling most of BOS side passengers, who are they possibly filling the cabins with? They get price matched everywhere, so clearly they have to be picked by BOS passengers if they are able to fill up the planes.


Sure, but it doesn't make them the preferred airline of BOS corporates.

tphuang wrote:
As AA has found in NYC, corporate passengers don't just fly to top business locations.


As I said, the top 15 corporate destinations comprise roughly 50% of corporate revenue/pax, so those top markets are certainly a very big deal.

tphuang wrote:
If AA is the preferred business carrier out of DCA and BOS, there is absolutely no reason for it to not have a huge revenue premium over B6 on BOS-DCA.


Of course there is. It's called capacity, and AA has 60% more capacity on BOS-DCA when compared to B6. It isn't even close.

tphuang wrote:
Same with BOS-PHL and BOS-ORD. B6 is now offering pretty solid schedule on all of these routes. AA is just getting between 0 to 15% higher fares on these routes depending on the quarter and that doesn't even factor in all the connection traffic.


For both of those routes, AA has 3x the capacity when compared to B6. Not even comparable.

I think we're probably done here. Have a good weekend!
 
Pbb152
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:19 am

It’s really sad how all the DL fanboys have to try to use this and many other threads as a weird dick swinging contest. Bizarre lot you DL fanboys are.
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 2406
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 11:46 am

winginit wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
There is no way that London is the largest business market from BOS.


By revenue it 100% is. Sorry to burst your bubble?

Bobloblaw wrote:
JetBlue is the favored carrier by business people from BOS.


Prove it.

Bobloblaw wrote:
That’s what matters not cherry picking a few routes like you did.


Cherry picking a few routes? I showed the top corporate routes by revenue - straight from prism. Looking forward to your data. Don’t have data? Then shhhh....
ii I don’t believe London is the top corporate route from Boston from the BOS point point sale but you’re still confusing one route with the entire Boston market. No other carrier serves more busines destinations from BOS than JetBlue. Period. Why are you and jumbo jet such angry little people with regards to JetBlue? I’ve never seen such anger over an airline starting a new route.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 11:52 am

So Prism only records agency corporate bookings?
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 11:57 am

“””Pros & Cons: The data can be used to evaluate airline spend and contract performance. It does not include all carriers and does not include airline tickets booked outside the travel management company. As more booking channels become available, the data can become less effective. Many low-cost carriers are not included.”””

So it’s possible Prism doesn’t even include Jetblue?
 
VS11
Posts: 1456
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:15 pm

Cunard wrote:
VS11

IF and that's a huge big awesome IF!

IF Heathrow finally gets it's long awaited third runway we're looking at least ten years away before any aircraft hits the tarmac on that third runway. Considering the political environment in the United Kingdom at the moment the chances of that runway ever getting full planning permission and actually being built is waining by the day. I've always been a huge fan of the planned third runway at LHR but at this present time it's looking very unlikely that it will ever happen to be honest.

Andy33 sums it up well enough.


Andy33 wrote:
VS11 wrote:
Cunard wrote:

All these remarks and comments regarding JetBlue and LHR are generally coming from those in the USA, those of us from the UK who are more familiar with LHR are more realistic about the situation and don't for one minute anticipate JetBlue flying into LHR.



Yes. The American attitude is that you can solve any problem by throwing enough money at it. Money is still very cheap to borrow. The Federal Reserve is pausing rates increases and indicates readiness to lower rates if the need be. In what could very soon be a deflationary environment, buying LHR slots is a great investment on its own. I don’t know why you are assuming jetBlue is not ready to chip in the money. Also, they can lease slots, at least in the beginning.

And the third LHR runway is still supposed to go ahead, yes? Isn’t that going to create new slots? JetBlue can lease slots until the new runway is operational. I think we should stop doubting that jetBlue is willing to go all in on London.


Unfortunately while the government has said the third runway is acceptable, nobody has actually approved any specific plans. What with the usual legal challenges from environmental campaigners, there's little hope of anything actually being completed before the late 2020s. And while it might well be possible to lease some slots, slots at times that suit transatlantic passengers are another matter. After all, most of these are already being used for transatlantic services!
I suppose cosying up to Etihad, who actually own the slots used by both Alitalia and Jet Airways, might produce some results, but these slots are optimised for European shorthaul and for flights to/from India respectively. Don't forget slots at UK airports are time specific. Airlines have even had slots confiscated for consistently breaching the time they are set for.


Don't get me wrong. I am not downplaying the challenges of getting LHR slots, or building a new runway at LHR. But it looks to me jetBlue are pretty resolved to get to LHR, and I see them flying there within 3-5 years of launching LON, if not right away. One could argue that the top reason Robin Hayes was brought in was to deliver LHR. His BA experience is really his advantage over a plethora of US carriers executives.
 
tphuang
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Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:59 pm

winginit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Based on your logic. If my company flies 10 times a year to tokyo and pays $8000 per R/T in J and fly 250 times a year to BOS and pay $300 R/T, then Tokyo is a bigger market for us due to the higher revenue, even though we fly to BOS 25 times more. That's the downfall in your logic.


It's a simple matter of chasing volume versus chasing revenue. For a lot of business travel it's a mix, and that international travel can often dictate broader loyalty. AA/DL serve key international destinations from BOS - B6 do not.

Or a corporation could have both a preferred international carrier and domestic carrier. And based on what people have said. B6 is the preferred domestic carrier for a lot of BOS corporations.

tphuang wrote:
I don't see how MSP is higher demand airport than BWI.


My data source is prism as I've stated, which strictly isolates agency-booked corporate travel. Per prism, MSP has more corporate travel from BOS than BWI.

Again, revenue vs flights.

tphuang wrote:
B6 is the only carrier in all of these markets + all the second tier business markets. Once you get to the 2nd tier, you will see how many of these markets B6 dominate. And guess what, having direct flights to all the places they travel to is a big deal.


It really isn't a big deal though. The heavy corporate bookers in BOS are big Consulting, Accounting, Banks, and to a slightly lesser extent Pharma and Tech; and their travel patterns are such that the top 15 or so destinations are going to comprise nearly half of all of the corporate spend or more than half of the corporate passenger movements.

Sure, let's pretend it doesn't matter that these corporations also need to fly to cities that are not in top 15. And it's funny that you suddenly changed from top 10 to top 15. I guess top 15 will show plenty of locations where B6 dominate.

tphuang wrote:
They are the market leaders to LA area right now. On top of the 4 flights to LAX, they also have 2 flights to LGB and BUR, which would give them the highest capacity to the region. And they only operate one fewer daily flight to LAX itself while generating 20% higher yield.


Let's not pretend LGB or even BUR are relevant for corporate travel

tphuang wrote:
The fact that AA is willing to run bleed money for market share reasons shouldn't be held against B6.


And yet it dictates preference nonetheless.

If you look at the amount of seats B6 offers to LA basin, the amount of lie flat seating and the yield they get, it's pretty hard to say they are not the market leader here. Why do you think AA needed to add 2 A321T flights here if they were retaining corporate traffic?

But you obviously want to go with the narrative that B6 is somehow weak, so ignoring AA's 5 flights to LAX not capturing corporate traffic.

tphuang wrote:
To Bay area, they also have as many flights as UA when you count in their flights to SJC & OAK.


No. They don't.

For the year ending April 2019, UA has 4,634 flights between BOS and SFO/SJC/BUR. 783K seats. B6 has 4,170 flights and 656K seats. Those numbers aren't the same last I checked.

Not the same, but close enough. You think people are going to ignore B6 because they have 10% fewer flights?

tphuang wrote:
Very soon, they will have same number of flights as AA to DCA.


And yet today they don't do they.

tphuang wrote:
Since Legacies normally control point of sale on their end. If B6 is not selling most of BOS side passengers, who are they possibly filling the cabins with? They get price matched everywhere, so clearly they have to be picked by BOS passengers if they are able to fill up the planes.


Sure, but it doesn't make them the preferred airline of BOS corporates.

sure it does, if they can fill up all these flights for comparable yield to Big 4 fortress hubs. If they are not getting the biggest share of BOS corporate travel, who are they putting on these flights?

tphuang wrote:
As AA has found in NYC, corporate passengers don't just fly to top business locations.


As I said, the top 15 corporate destinations comprise roughly 50% of corporate revenue/pax, so those top markets are certainly a very big deal.

except you can't keep those ffs around if you only fly to top business location and don't offer competitive schedule elsewhere.

tphuang wrote:
If AA is the preferred business carrier out of DCA and BOS, there is absolutely no reason for it to not have a huge revenue premium over B6 on BOS-DCA.


Of course there is. It's called capacity, and AA has 60% more capacity on BOS-DCA when compared to B6. It isn't even close.

tphuang wrote:
Same with BOS-PHL and BOS-ORD. B6 is now offering pretty solid schedule on all of these routes. AA is just getting between 0 to 15% higher fares on these routes depending on the quarter and that doesn't even factor in all the connection traffic.


For both of those routes, AA has 3x the capacity when compared to B6. Not even comparable.

Again, these are all AA fortress hubs and B6 have slowly being adding to these key markets every year. They are going to match AA on DCA frequency later this year, they will be at 2/3 freq on PHL and 3/4 to 2/3 on ORD. And they have done so while maintaining yield that's 0 to 15% less in all the quarters.

Let's do math here. Assuming on BOS-DCA, 50% of traffic are BOS originating and 50% are DCA originating. Let's say AA captures 90% of DCA traffic. Even if B6 captures 60% of BOS traffic, it would only be capturing 35% of traffic overall. And on BOS-ORD, let's say AA captures 45% of ORD traffic and UA captures 55%. And on BOS end, B6 captures 45% of BOS traffic and AA captures 30% and UA captures 25%. B6 can be capturing the lion share of BOS traffic but only 22% of traffic overall. And I would be of the opinion they are capturing more O&D traffic than that given the amount of connection traffic that AA/UA get on these routes.

B6 cannot possibly fill these planes if it's not getting BOS point of sale. And given they are big corporate markets, that would indicate that a big portion of the corporate travelers are picking B6 in these markets.

You keep ignoring that people that travel to top 15 corporate destinations also need to travel elsewhere in their personal time. It matters a lot more to these people that B6 is the only one flying to their second homes, to their island getaway, to skiing location than having 6 flights a day to ORD instead of 8. With B6, they know they can fly to most of the places they can get to non-stop. Not an option with other airlines. You also ignore the amount of effort that B6 has put in to get corporate contracts (all except one big firm in BOS) and the work it has done to get people in those companies to fly them. There is a reason mosaic lines are getting longer and longer on BOS flights. That has allowed them to push AA off a route like BOS-PIT and UA off a route like BOS-CLE. It has allowed them to now have more capacity, higher yield and more flights than DL on BOS-RDU, despite DL's focus on both cities.
 
airbazar
Posts: 9706
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 1:29 pm

winginit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Your metric of by revenue is intentionally understating an airline that doesn't fly to Europe.


Of course it does! Because, and this may be breaking news here, but business travelers, especially for some of the the firms who have a large BOS presence like Deloitte, PwC, Fidelity, Raytheon, and Accenture... wait for it... they fly internationally!

As someone who works for one of the firms you listed above, guess which airline is my firm's preferred carrier? B6. Nearly all of our domestic travel is on B6.
We use BA&AF for TATL travel because B6 doesn't fly it. Guess which airline we're going to start flying once B6 enters the TATL market?
winginit wrote:
It's a simple matter of chasing volume versus chasing revenue. For a lot of business travel it's a mix, and that international travel can often dictate broader loyalty. AA/DL serve key international destinations from BOS - B6 do not.

Seems like a pretty darn good incentive for B6 to start TATL flights doesn't it?
By the way, if DL can count their partner airlines as their own service as they recently did, so can B6.
Last edited by airbazar on Sat Apr 13, 2019 1:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
airbazar
Posts: 9706
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 1:40 pm

*** duplicate post ***
 
Bluewho
Posts: 129
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:58 pm

Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:08 pm

winginit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Based on your logic. If my company flies 10 times a year to tokyo and pays $8000 per R/T in J and fly 250 times a year to BOS and pay $300 R/T, then Tokyo is a bigger market for us due to the higher revenue, even though we fly to BOS 25 times more. That's the downfall in your logic.


It's a simple matter of chasing volume versus chasing revenue. For a lot of business travel it's a mix, and that international travel can often dictate broader loyalty. AA/DL serve key international destinations from BOS - B6 do not.

tphuang wrote:
I don't see how MSP is higher demand airport than BWI.


My data source is prism as I've stated, which strictly isolates agency-booked corporate travel. Per prism, MSP has more corporate travel from BOS than BWI.

tphuang wrote:
B6 is the only carrier in all of these markets + all the second tier business markets. Once you get to the 2nd tier, you will see how many of these markets B6 dominate. And guess what, having direct flights to all the places they travel to is a big deal.


It really isn't a big deal though. The heavy corporate bookers in BOS are big Consulting, Accounting, Banks, and to a slightly lesser extent Pharma and Tech; and their travel patterns are such that the top 15 or so destinations are going to comprise nearly half of all of the corporate spend or more than half of the corporate passenger movements.

tphuang wrote:
They are the market leaders to LA area right now. On top of the 4 flights to LAX, they also have 2 flights to LGB and BUR, which would give them the highest capacity to the region. And they only operate one fewer daily flight to LAX itself while generating 20% higher yield.


Let's not pretend LGB or even BUR are relevant for corporate travel

tphuang wrote:
The fact that AA is willing to run bleed money for market share reasons shouldn't be held against B6.


And yet it dictates preference nonetheless.

tphuang wrote:
To Bay area, they also have as many flights as UA when you count in their flights to SJC & OAK.


No. They don't.

For the year ending April 2019, UA has 4,634 flights between BOS and SFO/SJC/BUR. 783K seats. B6 has 4,170 flights and 656K seats. Those numbers aren't the same last I checked.

tphuang wrote:
Very soon, they will have same number of flights as AA to DCA.


And yet today they don't do they.

tphuang wrote:
Since Legacies normally control point of sale on their end. If B6 is not selling most of BOS side passengers, who are they possibly filling the cabins with? They get price matched everywhere, so clearly they have to be picked by BOS passengers if they are able to fill up the planes.


Sure, but it doesn't make them the preferred airline of BOS corporates.

tphuang wrote:
As AA has found in NYC, corporate passengers don't just fly to top business locations.


As I said, the top 15 corporate destinations comprise roughly 50% of corporate revenue/pax, so those top markets are certainly a very big deal.

tphuang wrote:
If AA is the preferred business carrier out of DCA and BOS, there is absolutely no reason for it to not have a huge revenue premium over B6 on BOS-DCA.


Of course there is. It's called capacity, and AA has 60% more capacity on BOS-DCA when compared to B6. It isn't even close.

tphuang wrote:
Same with BOS-PHL and BOS-ORD. B6 is now offering pretty solid schedule on all of these routes. AA is just getting between 0 to 15% higher fares on these routes depending on the quarter and that doesn't even factor in all the connection traffic.


For both of those routes, AA has 3x the capacity when compared to B6. Not even comparable.

I think we're probably done here. Have a good weekend!



I think the point you guys are missing is exactly what jetblue is doing. They are growing DCA and other areas so they can compete for the business travelers. They pretty much said that with the London announcement. They talk about it all the time in presentations. Are the the biggest you can debate it all day but the point is they are focusing on it right now.
 
Bluewho
Posts: 129
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:58 pm

Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:15 pm

Pbb152 wrote:
It’s really sad how all the DL fanboys have to try to use this and many other threads as a weird dick swinging contest. Bizarre lot you DL fanboys are.



It’s something I have found interesting as well. Delta is great no doubt but why there is this need to push everyone else down is amazing to me. Just be happy with your favorite airline and move on.

JetBlue can’t and most likely will never match Delta it’s also a 19year old playing with much much older airlines. They already have the fleets and mega hubs and joint ventures. It’s like looking at a college kid and saying, why don’t you have a home a new car two kids the Disney vacation club and your retirement funded. And if you don’t have those things obviously you have failed. Historically speaking jetblue has actually done very very well yet it’s always attacked. Yeah it has issues and for the first time they actually acknowledged it at the all hands meeting.

We all want to make jetblue into our image of what it should be when it’s still pretty much the same east coast airline catering to where the people of NY and now Boston and FLL want to go. Yeah they have changed but it’s to complete. You don’t see them opening up a hub in MCI with RJs feeding the operation. Let jetblue be jetblue and Delta be Delta.
 
ASA
Posts: 1089
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2010 5:12 pm

Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:30 pm

Pbb152 wrote:
It’s really sad how all the DL fanboys have to try to use this and many other threads as a weird dick swinging contest. Bizarre lot you DL fanboys are.


If you build if (any B6 thread) ... they'll come (swinging) :biggrin:

You all know who they are ... Jetblue BAD, Delta GOOD ... grrrr!
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 466
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:33 pm

Question now is who are they going to partner up with in Europe? I don't see ryanair or easyjet, you don't get into bed with a ULCC and roll your MINT customers from luxury to cattle cargo filled with drunks and people selling scratch off lotto tickets in the aisle.

*I just looked up which airlines have hubs in London, they are already taken by one of the big3 or are ULCCs. picking going to be slim.
 
Boof02671
Posts: 1626
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:15 am

Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:34 pm

Plus Delta and AA have commuter feed into BOS, B6 does not.
 
winginit
Posts: 2559
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 3:31 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
I don’t believe London is the top corporate route from Boston from the BOS point point sale


By revenue it is, and it's twice as large as the number two. I guess you're free to believe whatever you want though.

Bobloblaw wrote:
So it’s possible Prism doesn’t even include Jetblue?


Incorrect. Only Southwest, Spirit, Frontier, and Allegiant are not included.

tphuang wrote:
And it's funny that you suddenly changed from top 10 to top 15. I guess top 15 will show plenty of locations where B6 dominate.


It'll show... let's see... one where they dominate. I suppose two if we set aside WN.

11. RDU: #2 behind DL
12. SEA #2 behind AS
13. MCO #1
14. CLT #2 behind AA
15. BWI #2 behind WN

airbazar wrote:
Seems like a pretty darn good incentive for B6 to start TATL flights doesn't it?


Which is exactly what I said in the quote that you cut off:

winginit wrote:
Of course it does! Because, and this may be breaking news here, but business travelers, especially for some of the the firms who have a large BOS presence like Deloitte, PwC, Fidelity, Raytheon, and Accenture... wait for it... they fly internationally! For business! Namely to places like LHR, CDG etc. To downplay or ignore the international piece when it comes to the preferences of BOS-based business travelers is comical. It's the very reason B6 is expanding!


Bluewho wrote:
I think the point you guys are missing is exactly what jetblue is doing. They are growing DCA and other areas so they can compete for the business travelers. They pretty much said that with the London announcement. They talk about it all the time in presentations. Are the the biggest you can debate it all day but the point is they are focusing on it right now.


See the quote above. That's exactly what I'm saying. JetBlue, at present, are not the BOS business travelers airline of choice. This TATL expansions is a solid move in that direction. I have absolutely no ill-will against B6. I love Mint, and I respect what they're doing. Will this TATL flying be a shoe in for them? Of course not, and LHR slots alone are going to be a sizeable financial burden for an airline of their size, but what their doing is a logical progression for their business model.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 466
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 4:30 pm

Boof02671 wrote:
Plus Delta and AA have commuter feed into BOS, B6 does not.


B6 has plenty of commuter feed into BOS. Its called e190's all over the northeast and beyond.
 
Boof02671
Posts: 1626
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:15 am

Re: Confirmed: Jetblue Announces Flights to London from JFK and BOS from 2021

Sat Apr 13, 2019 4:30 pm

That’s not commuter that’s mainline.

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