Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
Thenoflyzone
Topic Author
Posts: 3015
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2001 4:42 am

AC investor day 2019 presentation

Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:07 pm

A lot of goodies in their 2019 investor day presentation, which was yesterday.

https://www.aircanada.com/content/dam/a ... eb2019.pdf

Key highlights:

Continue to build 3 main hubs. International growth will focus on counter-seasonality, as evidenced by YUL-GRU, YVR-AKL and YYZ-UIO winter seasonal routes. Air Canada Rouge will be used as a growing tool for regional flying.

Future route opportunities:

YYZ-Africa mentioned, but no specific airports in Africa were listed. (JNB, ACC and LOS are the most likely.)

737 Max potential new routes
YEG-HNL
YYC-MCO
YVR-MCO
YHZ-FRA
YUL-NTE

A220 potential new routes (these were already known)

YUL-SEA
YYZ-SJC
YYZ-MTY
YVR-IAD
YYC-IAD
YYC-BOS
YVR-YHZ

Fleet wise, 1 more A333 to come online in 2021, bringing the total to 13. Rouge narrowbody fleet will grow to 39 by 2021, with 7 A320s and 4 more A321s coming online.

Discuss.
us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
 
codyul
Posts: 130
Joined: Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:43 pm

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:46 pm

13 Dreamliner options are mentioned.. keeps the hopes alive.
YUL PNC :weightlifter:
 
hkcanadaexpat
Posts: 4086
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:33 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:08 pm

Interestingly they're still keeping quiet on the upcoming Rouge 763 fleet replacement. C-FXCA will be 32 years old come 2022 when AC forecasts still no retirements. I presume they are actively negotiating with the Unions but nonetheless, this is a today problem.
 
sixtyseven
Posts: 829
Joined: Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:42 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:19 pm

hkcanadaexpat wrote:
Interestingly they're still keeping quiet on the upcoming Rouge 763 fleet replacement. C-FXCA will be 32 years old come 2022 when AC forecasts still no retirements. I presume they are actively negotiating with the Unions but nonetheless, this is a today problem.


Reason they’re not talking about 767 replacement is there is none. Fleet wide refresh awaits board approval sometime this year to extend fleet 10 years.

Larger baggage bins, winglets, electronic cockpit displays plus other smaller items.

Anybody thinks 788s, 330s going to rouge is dreaming.
Stand-by for new ATIS message......
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8502
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:35 pm

I want to buy VDB and YVR tech stop futures on YEG-HNL. Heavy winter winds will make me wealthy.
 
FabienA380
Posts: 23
Joined: Wed Jul 18, 2012 6:46 pm

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:37 pm

Very surprised,
reducing the fleet of Dash8-Q400s by 8 in 2020??.............
 
Prost
Posts: 2586
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:23 pm

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:54 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
I want to buy VDB and YVR tech stop futures on YEG-HNL. Heavy winter winds will make me wealthy.

VDB is in Norway I believe. Heck of a tech stop.
 
hkcanadaexpat
Posts: 4086
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:33 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:56 pm

sixtyseven wrote:
hkcanadaexpat wrote:
Interestingly they're still keeping quiet on the upcoming Rouge 763 fleet replacement. C-FXCA will be 32 years old come 2022 when AC forecasts still no retirements. I presume they are actively negotiating with the Unions but nonetheless, this is a today problem.

Reason they’re not talking about 767 replacement is there is none. Fleet wide refresh awaits board approval sometime this year to extend fleet 10 years.
Larger baggage bins, winglets, electronic cockpit displays plus other smaller items.
Anybody thinks 788s, 330s going to rouge is dreaming.

I didn't say anything about 788s or 330s but if you are saying that C-FXCA is going to live to 40 years old, that is simply not going to happen. There is a large part of the 763 fleet that has 10 years left in it but that does not account for 25 frames. FXCA/GSCA/GDUZ/GBZR at a minimum will be gone in the next 3-5 years. So what's the answer? A ~20 frame 763 fleet going forward? More used 763s?
 
sixtyseven
Posts: 829
Joined: Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:42 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:00 am

hkcanadaexpat wrote:
sixtyseven wrote:
hkcanadaexpat wrote:
Interestingly they're still keeping quiet on the upcoming Rouge 763 fleet replacement. C-FXCA will be 32 years old come 2022 when AC forecasts still no retirements. I presume they are actively negotiating with the Unions but nonetheless, this is a today problem.

Reason they’re not talking about 767 replacement is there is none. Fleet wide refresh awaits board approval sometime this year to extend fleet 10 years.
Larger baggage bins, winglets, electronic cockpit displays plus other smaller items.
Anybody thinks 788s, 330s going to rouge is dreaming.


I didn't say anything about 788s or 330s but if you are saying that C-FXCA is going to live to 40 years old, that is simply not going to happen. There is a large part of the 763 fleet that has 10 years left in it but that does not account for 25 frames. FXCA/GSCA/GDUZ/GBZR at a minimum will be gone in the next 3-5 years. So what's the answer? A ~20 frame 763 fleet going forward? More used 763s?


I don’t think I said you did. But there are a pile of people on here drooling for shiny new metal at rouge. Not going to happen.

And for the one frame you’re talking about who knows.
Stand-by for new ATIS message......
 
Thenoflyzone
Topic Author
Posts: 3015
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2001 4:42 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:56 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
I want to buy VDB and YVR tech stop futures on YEG-HNL. Heavy winter winds will make me wealthy.


You wont get wealthy. You'll lose quite a lot of money, actually.

YEG-HNL 2,787 nmi
B737-8 range 3,550 nmi

Even with some decent headwinds, the plane should make it to Hawaii just fine
us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
 
CFWAD
Posts: 100
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:36 pm

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:12 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
I want to buy VDB and YVR tech stop futures on YEG-HNL. Heavy winter winds will make me wealthy.


AC operated the 738M from YYC this past season, at 80 miles less in length. And WS has operated the 738M from YYC-HNL/OGG in the past as well.

The Q400 reduction is slightly surprising but eludes to what AC mainline plans to to with their A220 and CRJ9s. There are plenty of Q400 routes AC could up-gauge and get more revenue from having a J-class product. You can already see in various markets they are reducing Dash-100/300 frequencies while increasing seat capacity via the Q400.
CaVOK
A300.310.319.320.321.332.333.343.B722.732.733.734.735.736.73G.738.739.742.74M.752.762.763.772.773.779.CR2.CR7.DC9.DC10.DH1.DH3.DH4.E135.E175. E195.MD83
 
User avatar
CFM565A1
Posts: 438
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2017 7:19 pm

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:14 am

FabienA380 wrote:
Very surprised,
reducing the fleet of Dash8-Q400s by 8 in 2020??.............



Not really, and that’s a Jazz fleet decision not AC. They’re replacing them with CRJ-900s and -200s. The Q400s in question are old unreliable junk from Sky Regional (they abused them when they flew them into YTZ just ask Jazz mtc about that situation) and also from Republic. One of the Republic doesn’t even have a HUD which means it can’t do proper CAT3 approaches vs the rest of the fleet.
C172-M/N/P/R/S , PA-28-180, P2006T, PA-34-200T, B1900D, DH8A/C ERJ-145, CRJ-100/200, DH8D, CRJ-700/705/900, E-175/190, A319/320/321, 737-200/300/400/600/700/800/900ER/M8, MD-82/83, 757-200/300, 767-300, A330-300, 787-9, 777-300ER, F28-4000.
 
berari
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 3:47 pm

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:20 am

Thenoflyzone wrote:
A lot of goodies in their 2019 investor day presentation, which was yesterday.
YVR-IAD
YYC-IAD
YYC-BOS


I'm not complaining (in fact excited) about these. What would drive pax to IAD/BOS from YVR and YYC. BOS from YYC is almost always on sale (one of cheapest east cost destinations over the past year.)
 
User avatar
longhauler
Posts: 6488
Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 12:00 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:21 am

CFM565A1 wrote:
One of the Republic doesn’t even have a HUD which means it can’t do proper CAT3 approaches vs the rest of the fleet.

Is that a big issue for Jazz?

The E175s and E190s are not CAT3 certified at Air Canada and SkyRegional.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
Thenoflyzone
Topic Author
Posts: 3015
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2001 4:42 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:28 am

berari wrote:
Thenoflyzone wrote:
A lot of goodies in their 2019 investor day presentation, which was yesterday.
YVR-IAD
YYC-IAD
YYC-BOS


I'm not complaining (in fact excited) about these. What would drive pax to IAD/BOS from YVR and YYC. BOS from YYC is almost always on sale (one of cheapest east cost destinations over the past year.)


BOS is one of the largest unserved markets from YYC. O&D was close to 40,000 three years ago. Combined with the A220, the route should be a winner.

YVR-IAD is over 70,000 O&D. UA already serves the route seasonally.

YVR-BOS is already served. Summer seasonal A319.
us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
 
User avatar
CFM565A1
Posts: 438
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2017 7:19 pm

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:33 am

longhauler wrote:
CFM565A1 wrote:
One of the Republic doesn’t even have a HUD which means it can’t do proper CAT3 approaches vs the rest of the fleet.

Is that a big issue for Jazz?

The E175s and E190s are not CAT3 certified at Air Canada and SkyRegional.


Yes all of our cat 3s are hud flown hence the DH1/3s are cat 2 PMA only.

There’s other issue with the “490s” as well. We’re quite happy to see them leave.
C172-M/N/P/R/S , PA-28-180, P2006T, PA-34-200T, B1900D, DH8A/C ERJ-145, CRJ-100/200, DH8D, CRJ-700/705/900, E-175/190, A319/320/321, 737-200/300/400/600/700/800/900ER/M8, MD-82/83, 757-200/300, 767-300, A330-300, 787-9, 777-300ER, F28-4000.
 
User avatar
CFM565A1
Posts: 438
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2017 7:19 pm

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:18 am

Thenoflyzone wrote:
berari wrote:
Thenoflyzone wrote:
A lot of goodies in their 2019 investor day presentation, which was yesterday.
YVR-IAD
YYC-IAD
YYC-BOS


I'm not complaining (in fact excited) about these. What would drive pax to IAD/BOS from YVR and YYC. BOS from YYC is almost always on sale (one of cheapest east cost destinations over the past year.)


BOS is one of the largest unserved markets from YYC. O&D was close to 40,000 three years ago. Combined with the A220, the route should be a winner.

YVR-IAD is over 70,000 O&D. UA already serves the route seasonally.

YVR-BOS is already served. Summer seasonal A319.


Good questions... I would point to the increased JV that AC signed with UA last year (very much like WS and DL). IAD is another UA hub that AC passengers can use to connect to overseas destinations that AC doesn't serve and the A220 is a good choice for a YYC route to there.
C172-M/N/P/R/S , PA-28-180, P2006T, PA-34-200T, B1900D, DH8A/C ERJ-145, CRJ-100/200, DH8D, CRJ-700/705/900, E-175/190, A319/320/321, 737-200/300/400/600/700/800/900ER/M8, MD-82/83, 757-200/300, 767-300, A330-300, 787-9, 777-300ER, F28-4000.
 
YYZLGA
Posts: 444
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:28 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:50 am

Very interesting document. Thanks for linking. It looks pretty clear AC's preparing for a recession. Counting the reductions in regional flying, the total fleet is planned to shrink over the next few years. I'm sure they're keeping their options open for growth, if the economy holds up, but it seems like a good, cautious plan.

They mention that some Rouge aircraft will need to be replaced "in the middle of the next decade." Most of their 767s are new enough that that won't be a problem, but they have 5 from the early 90s. Are they really going to keep them for 35 years? Nobody else is flying passenger 767s that old. I can't see them buying new 787s for Rouge. Are there 767s available to replace them? Could we see used 330s acquired?

The CASM difference between 787s and 767s is gigantic--more than double the difference between 7M8s and 320s. I'm sure those options are going to get exercised at some point once the economic forecast is a bit clearer.
 
Whiteguy
Posts: 1572
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 6:11 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:26 am

CFWAD wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
I want to buy VDB and YVR tech stop futures on YEG-HNL. Heavy winter winds will make me wealthy.


AC operated the 738M from YYC this past season, at 80 miles less in length. And WS has operated the 738M from YYC-HNL/OGG in the past as well.

The Q400 reduction is slightly surprising but eludes to what AC mainline plans to to with their A220 and CRJ9s. There are plenty of Q400 routes AC could up-gauge and get more revenue from having a J-class product. You can already see in various markets they are reducing Dash-100/300 frequencies while increasing seat capacity via the Q400.


Both AC and WS have operated the MAX 4x a week YYC-OGG all winter, no load restrictions and no tech stops either way....WS is operating some YEG-OGG flights in April with the MAX.
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 887
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:53 pm

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:41 am

CASM delta between the A320-200 and 7M8's being considerably smaller than the 763 vs. 787 makes perfect sense - 1986 EIS vs. 1988 (when innovation in aerospace peaked).
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
YYZORD
Posts: 521
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:11 am

I'm surprised that WS didn't consider YYC-BOS before AC. BOS is a DL focus city so WS would benefit more from pax instead of AC on that route.

berari wrote:
Thenoflyzone wrote:
A lot of goodies in their 2019 investor day presentation, which was yesterday.
YVR-IAD
YYC-IAD
YYC-BOS


I'm not complaining (in fact excited) about these. What would drive pax to IAD/BOS from YVR and YYC. BOS from YYC is almost always on sale (one of cheapest east cost destinations over the past year.)
 
YYZLGA
Posts: 444
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:28 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:46 am

Since over the next couple years, all the fleet growth will be on the narrowbody side, I'm guessing that there's going to be more long haul 737 flying. Do you think AC would ever consider a subfleet of 737s with the international business class product? It doesn't seem ideal for AC's marketing if a good chunk of their transatlantic flying has domestic J class. I know winters would be an issue, but I suppose they could perhaps make use of them on South American flying and Hawaii, plus maybe for transcontinental flights.
Last edited by YYZLGA on Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
YYZORD
Posts: 521
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:54 am

I'm so happy that YVR-MCO is being considered by AC, it's a huge game changer with asian and australian tourists visiting Orlando these days and I'm sure they'd prefer YVR over SFO and LAX.
 
Whiteguy
Posts: 1572
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 6:11 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:14 am

YYZORD wrote:
I'm surprised that WS didn't consider YYC-BOS before AC. BOS is a DL focus city so WS would benefit more from pax instead of AC on that route.

berari wrote:
Thenoflyzone wrote:
A lot of goodies in their 2019 investor day presentation, which was yesterday.
YVR-IAD
YYC-IAD
YYC-BOS


I'm not complaining (in fact excited) about these. What would drive pax to IAD/BOS from YVR and YYC. BOS from YYC is almost always on sale (one of cheapest east cost destinations over the past year.)


How do you know WS isn’t considering it?
 
Whiteguy
Posts: 1572
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 6:11 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:16 am

YYZORD wrote:
I'm so happy that YVR-MCO is being considered by AC, it's a huge game changer with asian and australian tourists visiting Orlando these days and I'm sure they'd prefer YVR over SFO and LAX.


Considering it doesn’t mean it’ll be added, AC operated to before with Rouge. WS also operated YVR-MCO but it was gone this winter as well.
 
YYZORD
Posts: 521
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:58 am

That was probably because they were transitioning and ending rouge routes to 737 max mainline at YVR. This route for sure can come back, there is enough demand from connecting pax from Asia and Australia along with the local leakage passengers who drive down to or connect in SEA.

Whiteguy wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
I'm so happy that YVR-MCO is being considered by AC, it's a huge game changer with asian and australian tourists visiting Orlando these days and I'm sure they'd prefer YVR over SFO and LAX.


Considering it doesn’t mean it’ll be added, AC operated to before with Rouge. WS also operated YVR-MCO but it was gone this winter as well.
 
SeanM1997
Posts: 422
Joined: Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:27 pm

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:13 am

I think Air Canada should look to grow their UK operation - especially at London Heathrow and Manchester. These two airports have large amount of Star Alliance connections, and have high point to point traffic. Potential changes could be:

LONDON HEATHROW:
LHR - YHZ reduce from 7 to 5 weekly upgauge to B767-300
LHR - YYT reduce from 7 to 5 weekly upgauge to B767-300
LHR - YEG new route - 4 weekly - B787-8
LHR - YYZ B787-8 change to B777-300

MANCHESTER:
LHR - YYZ Air Canada replace Air Canada Rouge. Full Summer Season instead of May-September
LHR - YVR 4 weekly B787-8 NEW ROUTE
LHR - YUL 3 weekly B737MAX8 NEW ROUTE
 
User avatar
SuperTwin
Posts: 139
Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:31 am

SeanM1997 wrote:
I think Air Canada should look to grow their UK operation - especially at London Heathrow and Manchester. These two airports have large amount of Star Alliance connections, and have high point to point traffic. Potential changes could be:

LONDON HEATHROW:
LHR - YHZ reduce from 7 to 5 weekly upgauge to B767-300
LHR - YYT reduce from 7 to 5 weekly upgauge to B767-300
LHR - YEG new route - 4 weekly - B787-8
LHR - YYZ B787-8 change to B777-300

MANCHESTER:
LHR - YYZ Air Canada replace Air Canada Rouge. Full Summer Season instead of May-September
LHR - YVR 4 weekly B787-8 NEW ROUTE
LHR - YUL 3 weekly B737MAX8 NEW ROUTE


What a nonsensical post based on nothing... except maybe a half empty bottle of wine.

Many of your thoughts are in stark contrast to the changes they’ve made in recent years to better manage UK capacity.

Ps. You also got your airport code wrong for Manchester.
SuperTwin
 
baje427
Posts: 820
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:45 am

Could the reduction in the Q fleet also be due to Bombardier selling the program hence they see no future for it ?
 
User avatar
longhauler
Posts: 6488
Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 12:00 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Thu Mar 07, 2019 1:34 pm

YYZLGA wrote:
Do you think AC would ever consider a subfleet of 737s with the international business class product? It doesn't seem ideal for AC's marketing if a good chunk of their transatlantic flying has domestic J class.

It is a domestic J product, but it is sold and priced as Premium Economy, much like Premium Rouge. I am not sure I would call it a "good chunk", the 737 represents less than 5% of AC transatlantic ASM.

It's actually a pretty good deal.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 1119
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:12 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:15 pm

SeanM1997 wrote:
I think Air Canada should look to grow their UK operation - especially at London Heathrow and Manchester. These two airports have large amount of Star Alliance connections, and have high point to point traffic. Potential changes could be:

LONDON HEATHROW:
LHR - YHZ reduce from 7 to 5 weekly upgauge to B767-300
LHR - YYT reduce from 7 to 5 weekly upgauge to B767-300
LHR - YEG new route - 4 weekly - B787-8
LHR - YYZ B787-8 change to B777-300

MANCHESTER:
LHR - YYZ Air Canada replace Air Canada Rouge. Full Summer Season instead of May-September
LHR - YVR 4 weekly B787-8 NEW ROUTE
LHR - YUL 3 weekly B737MAX8 NEW ROUTE


Remember, AC capacity to LHR changes frequently based on demand. They have 4x daily from YYZ, winter is usually 3x 789 and 1x 77W. Summer is the inverse, the 788 isn't overly common, at YYZ in general even. I believe it will be on one of the flights for some time this year, allowing the 789s to be used on faster growing markets. LHR has been fairly stagnant from YYZ, last stats I've seen were 2017 where numbers shrunk slightly.
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 1119
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:12 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:33 pm

Regarding growth and future plans, remember their current trajectory, they are evaluating and adding frames as required, hence the 5 additional A330s. It stands to reason that if the next year or two hold the same sort of growth numbers, they bite on their 787 options. The 787-10 would be the perfect TATL aircraft for them, it can cover every TATL destination they have. The new rumoured higher weight 789 could also be useful for things like YYZ-SYD direct or YYZ-SIN/JNB.

I think moving forward, it'll be small growth, the next big ish orders will be A321 replacement/high density domestic/transborder narrowbody expansion, which is a strong market for them right now, likely to be 737-10 or A321neo. Depending on what they select, it may make sense to configure these with lie flat J and also run them on near TATL, which would help big time with seasonal variations. Dense transcontinental and domestic during the summer, and TATL during the winter to destinations that struggle with a widebody.

On the widebody side, they don't need much yet, drip feeding additional A330s makes a lot of sense to keep adding a couple routes a year/add peak season frequencies on busy routes. I think this is where they can lean a little more on their partners such as LH to help, as it means AC doesn't have to build a fleet for the peak summer schedule. Things like a 4th daily YYZ-FRA from LH/AC, especially in the summer would make a lot of sense.
 
User avatar
CFM565A1
Posts: 438
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2017 7:19 pm

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:30 pm

baje427 wrote:
Could the reduction in the Q fleet also be due to Bombardier selling the program hence they see no future for it ?


Doesn’t with fit how Jazz plans their fleet. Look how long they’ve kept their classic dash 8s around after production was ended. The retiring Qs are older and slightly different operationally than the ones Jazz ordered new. The retiring ones were also in poor shape when dumped on Jazz and have continued to be costly in maintenance.
C172-M/N/P/R/S , PA-28-180, P2006T, PA-34-200T, B1900D, DH8A/C ERJ-145, CRJ-100/200, DH8D, CRJ-700/705/900, E-175/190, A319/320/321, 737-200/300/400/600/700/800/900ER/M8, MD-82/83, 757-200/300, 767-300, A330-300, 787-9, 777-300ER, F28-4000.
 
flyyul
Posts: 4460
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2000 11:25 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:52 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
Regarding growth and future plans, remember their current trajectory, they are evaluating and adding frames as required, hence the 5 additional A330s. It stands to reason that if the next year or two hold the same sort of growth numbers, they bite on their 787 options. The 787-10 would be the perfect TATL aircraft for them, it can cover every TATL destination they have. The new rumoured higher weight 789 could also be useful for things like YYZ-SYD direct or YYZ-SIN/JNB.

I think moving forward, it'll be small growth, the next big ish orders will be A321 replacement/high density domestic/transborder narrowbody expansion, which is a strong market for them right now, likely to be 737-10 or A321neo. Depending on what they select, it may make sense to configure these with lie flat J and also run them on near TATL, which would help big time with seasonal variations. Dense transcontinental and domestic during the summer, and TATL during the winter to destinations that struggle with a widebody.

On the widebody side, they don't need much yet, drip feeding additional A330s makes a lot of sense to keep adding a couple routes a year/add peak season frequencies on busy routes. I think this is where they can lean a little more on their partners such as LH to help, as it means AC doesn't have to build a fleet for the peak summer schedule. Things like a 4th daily YYZ-FRA from LH/AC, especially in the summer would make a lot of sense.


Would suggest your posts show a bit more balance AC has 3 hubs and has shown a propensity to diversify. You’re basically suggesting that AC will do all these things in YYZ on account of full flights. In many quarters AC runs high system load factors so the fact that YYZFRA is full doesn’t necessarily mean AC will add a 4th. YYZJNB or SYD is an investment of 2 full 787s and a capital investment of more than $600M cad dollars. These aren’t decisions that are taken lightly.
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 1119
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:12 am

Re: AC investor day 2019 presentation

Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:45 pm

flyyul wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
Regarding growth and future plans, remember their current trajectory, they are evaluating and adding frames as required, hence the 5 additional A330s. It stands to reason that if the next year or two hold the same sort of growth numbers, they bite on their 787 options. The 787-10 would be the perfect TATL aircraft for them, it can cover every TATL destination they have. The new rumoured higher weight 789 could also be useful for things like YYZ-SYD direct or YYZ-SIN/JNB.

I think moving forward, it'll be small growth, the next big ish orders will be A321 replacement/high density domestic/transborder narrowbody expansion, which is a strong market for them right now, likely to be 737-10 or A321neo. Depending on what they select, it may make sense to configure these with lie flat J and also run them on near TATL, which would help big time with seasonal variations. Dense transcontinental and domestic during the summer, and TATL during the winter to destinations that struggle with a widebody.

On the widebody side, they don't need much yet, drip feeding additional A330s makes a lot of sense to keep adding a couple routes a year/add peak season frequencies on busy routes. I think this is where they can lean a little more on their partners such as LH to help, as it means AC doesn't have to build a fleet for the peak summer schedule. Things like a 4th daily YYZ-FRA from LH/AC, especially in the summer would make a lot of sense.


Would suggest your posts show a bit more balance AC has 3 hubs and has shown a propensity to diversify. You’re basically suggesting that AC will do all these things in YYZ on account of full flights. In many quarters AC runs high system load factors so the fact that YYZFRA is full doesn’t necessarily mean AC will add a 4th. YYZJNB or SYD is an investment of 2 full 787s and a capital investment of more than $600M cad dollars. These aren’t decisions that are taken lightly.


Nobody suggested they were being taken lightly. I merely proposed an idea based on my own observations. I do think it’s fair to say AC’s recent expansion has been balanced, if not somewhat canted towards YUL and to a lesser extent, YVR. I believe, based on this, and casually observing just about every international airline serving Toronto increasing services or upguaging, as well as looking at prices and load factors on routes, including the breakdown of sales between cabins that YYZ is warranting some additional growth, as it is showing that the last wave of expansion it saw was largely a success, and flights continue to do well. Don’t forget it’s AC’s largest hub, and by far amd away the country’s largest airport, so naturally, it’s going to see the majority share of expansion and aircraft will in all likelihood be tailored for it, seeing as that is where they will spend most of their lives.

Also remember, if AC were to open a JNB flight for example, it’s not like the equipment would be exclusively for that. The advantage a higher gross weight 789 would bring is that it can also be used throughout the rest of the network. There is no real difference other than MTOW.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos