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knope2001
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:40 pm

[threeid][/threeid]
SumChristianus wrote:
UA MSN-SFO AUG 1.0>2[1.0]
Seems like this should be bigger news although it just transfers a frequency from DEN to SFO...


It's definitely a curious one. if natural demand suggests you should up capacity this much you put an A320 or 738 on the route, not a second E75. Being a longish (4.5 hour) monopoly nonstop there's little pressure for frequency. Plus (at least at this point) they are adding it for just one month -- August.

If I had to guess this second SFO frequency is at the request of Epic Systems, the suburban Madison-based big electronic health software company. The new MSN-SFO and MSN-LAX flights added in the past year are widely believed to be on behalf of Epic. In addition to sending a boatload of business travel at MSN every week Epic also has United and Delta add flights to several cities for their annual user group meeting which is at the end of summer. Some years it's in September, this year it's in August. Of course UA is adding the second SFO trip the entire month, not just around the conference. But perhaps this is how they are handling late summer peak and the Epic conference -- a second SFO trip partially offset by ending the (summer-only) third DEN flight early.

It's not been public what Epic does to get their flights -- revenue guarantee, or maybe Epic inks a more airline-lucrative corporate contract with the expanded flights part of the deal. It's not like airlines are flying empty planes based on Epic's bidding. But on the flipside it's telling that American never adds a seat (much less a flight) in conjunction with big demand bulge around the Epic user group meeting. It's not organic happenstance, and I don't think this second SFO flight in August is either.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 12:04 am

kyrone wrote:
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1414401&p=21086905&hilit=Air+Italy+ord#p21086905

There’s the thread on Air Italy from about a month ago. Didn’t really spark a massive discussion on the ORD portion, although it is interesting.

Didn't it just go on sale around December? Odd it took them so long to delete it from OAG.
MIflyer12 wrote:
That's a lot of F9 cuts at AUS.

F9 AUS-DTW MAY 0.6>0.2[0.4]
F9 AUS-MSP MAY 0.4>0.2[0.6]
Quite a few ONT routes were trimmed
*F9 AUS-ONT MAY 0.6>0[0.5] JUN 0.6>0[0.6] JUL 0.6>0.4[0.5]
F9 AUS-SEA MAY 0.3>0.1[0.5]
F9 AUS-SFO MAY 0.4>0.2[0]

About time to stick a fork in it?

Has anybody looked to see if those routes stop after May and they moved the end earlier or if they are just not running most of the month?
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 12:22 am

enilria wrote:
kyrone wrote:
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1414401&p=21086905&hilit=Air+Italy+ord#p21086905

There’s the thread on Air Italy from about a month ago. Didn’t really spark a massive discussion on the ORD portion, although it is interesting.

Didn't it just go on sale around December? Odd it took them so long to delete it from OAG.
MIflyer12 wrote:
That's a lot of F9 cuts at AUS.

F9 AUS-DTW MAY 0.6>0.2[0.4]
F9 AUS-MSP MAY 0.4>0.2[0.6]
Quite a few ONT routes were trimmed
*F9 AUS-ONT MAY 0.6>0[0.5] JUN 0.6>0[0.6] JUL 0.6>0.4[0.5]
F9 AUS-SEA MAY 0.3>0.1[0.5]
F9 AUS-SFO MAY 0.4>0.2[0]

About time to stick a fork in it?

Has anybody looked to see if those routes stop after May and they moved the end earlier or if they are just not running most of the month?


Regarding the F9 AUS routes: with the exception of ONT-AUS, those are all summer seasonal routes that were due to start at the beginning of May (I believe they were all supposed to start April 30 or May 1, depending on which days of the week they operate) and appear to have had their seasonal resumptions (or first start in the case of AUS-SFO, which appears to be replacing AUS-SJC) pushed to towards the end of May (all of those now appear to start either May 22 or 23, depending on which days of the week they operate). Not sure what’s up with AUS-ONT, a route that was year-round, but their website shows it resuming in mid-July.
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 5:25 am

knope2001 wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
UA MSN-SFO AUG 1.0>2[1.0]
Seems like this should be bigger news although it just transfers a frequency from DEN to SFO...


It's definitely a curious one. if natural demand suggests you should up capacity this much you put an A320 or 738 on the route, not a second E75. Being a longish (4.5 hour) monopoly nonstop there's little pressure for frequency. Plus (at least at this point) they are adding it for just one month -- August.

If I had to guess this second SFO frequency is at the request of Epic Systems, the suburban Madison-based big electronic health software company. The new MSN-SFO and MSN-LAX flights added in the past year are widely believed to be on behalf of Epic. In addition to sending a boatload of business travel at MSN every week Epic also has United and Delta add flights to several cities for their annual user group meeting which is at the end of summer. Some years it's in September, this year it's in August. Of course UA is adding the second SFO trip the entire month, not just around the conference. But perhaps this is how they are handling late summer peak and the Epic conference -- a second SFO trip partially offset by ending the (summer-only) third DEN flight early.

It's not been public what Epic does to get their flights -- revenue guarantee, or maybe Epic inks a more airline-lucrative corporate contract with the expanded flights part of the deal. It's not like airlines are flying empty planes based on Epic's bidding. But on the flipside it's telling that American never adds a seat (much less a flight) in conjunction with big demand bulge around the Epic user group meeting. It's not organic happenstance, and I don't think this second SFO flight in August is either.


I don't think the 2nd flight is just for UGM - the flight starts at the beginning of August and UGM is the last week. No one flies in for UGM until the Saturday/Sunday before at the earliest... Sunday and Monday of UGM week, along with Thursday and Friday, are when you tend to see major upgauges (I've seen 753s to MSP/DTW and mainline to SLC and LGA on DL in the past) and special one-off flights (I remember seeing MSN-IAD on UA in the past, as well as MSN-SFO/MSN-LAX before they became permanent routes).

By adding a second flight, UA is opening up a boatload of new connections at SFO (including to Asia). And I'm guessing no significant connectivity is being lost by moving DEN from 3 down to 2 flights. I'm glad UA saw the potential of MSN and added some of these unexpected routes like SFO and LAX! At this point, DL more or less dominates eastbound traffic (DTW, ATL, DCA, LGA, some slightly out-of-the-way MSP connections) while UA has a stronger presence going west (DEN, SFO, LAX, some ORD). IAH and BOS seem like two other potentially good new markets for UA and DL to try, respectively.

Also, I don't think Epic has any greater influence with UA and/or DL than a typical large company would. I'm sure they've let UA know that there are dozens of hospital systems in California that are clients, and that nonstop flights would be well used, but I don't think the flights are being subsidized in any way. Anecdotally, the one time I flew on the MSN-SFO flight was on a Monday after an Epic Staff Meeting, and it seemed like it might have been 30%+ Epic employees.
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 5:29 am

The winding down of B6 operations continues. Get your flights on them while you can, they will not exist as a brand in 5-10 years.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 5:33 am

Whats interesting is their deployment model. They have numerous people that commute weekly like typical large consultancies doing M-Th / M-F trips and back home every weekend. They also have a large amount of employees that spend 2-4 weeks at a time on the ground during implementation phases that only make 1-2 trips out to a client site.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:26 am

AA CLT-YYZ JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[4] SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>5[4] NOV 4>5[4] DEC 4>5[3]

AA going mainline on CLT-YYZ year round is great, this was something I predicted as BUF, ROC, and SYR are mainline to CLT already so YYZ being a bigger market makes sense. Hopefully someday AA adds CLT-YVR because if PDX can handle a daily flight to CLT, so can YVR.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 7:49 am

enilria wrote:


AA PHX-PIT JUN 1.8>1.0[2] JUL 2>1.0[2.0] AUG 2>1.0[1.9] SEP 2>1.0[1.7] OCT 2>1.0[1.9] NOV 2>1.0[1.7] DEC 2>1.0[1.7]


Just 10 years ago, US was running eight daily flights between these two cities. Amazing that AA has dwindled it down to one.

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
Thanks as always for this.

For MSS, didn’t Skywest just recently win the EAS bid? What’s going to happen there I wonder? Perhaps switch to DL branded Skywest ops to BOS or DTW?


They realized the runway and airport didn’t meet the requirements for a CRJ200 to land there , I find it weird that the airline didn’t look into this before applying for the route.


The Massena Town Council had endorsed Boutique Air for another two-year contract prior to the DOT awarding Skywest the contract which was contingent on both OGS and MSS being served by them. I have a sneaky suspicion that the issues were known all along but no one said anything so that Skywest could get awarded the OGS service and MSS could keep the Boutique air service. This way both cities get non-stop service to the cities they want to connect with and thus everyone came out a winner. It will be interesting to see if Massena evens makes any renovations to their runway anytime soon to allow for the CRJ200. I won't hold my breath.

https://watertowndailytimes.com/news05/ ... o-20190226
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:43 am

Dominion301 wrote:
SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
Thanks as always for this.

For MSS, didn’t Skywest just recently win the EAS bid? What’s going to happen there I wonder? Perhaps switch to DL branded Skywest ops to BOS or DTW?


They realized the runway and airport didn’t meet the requirements for a CRJ200 to land there , I find it weird that the airline didn’t look into this before applying for the route.


Really? I guess that means Cape Air coming back to BOS is the most likely scenario.


Cape Air didn’t fly MSS-BOS, they flew MSS-ALB and, per Enrilia’s post, they’re dropping all Albany flying! Which is interesting because ALB’s a mx base and long-time destination.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 12:39 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
That's a lot of F9 cuts at AUS.

F9 AUS-DTW MAY 0.6>0.2[0.4]
F9 AUS-MSP MAY 0.4>0.2[0.6]
Quite a few ONT routes were trimmed
*F9 AUS-ONT MAY 0.6>0[0.5] JUN 0.6>0[0.6] JUL 0.6>0.4[0.5]
F9 AUS-SEA MAY 0.3>0.1[0.5]
F9 AUS-SFO MAY 0.4>0.2[0]

About time to stick a fork in it?


Welcome to the F9 Dartboard of Doom. AUS isn't the first airport to get caught in this trap and they probably won't be the last.
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), 739 (DL), 712 (DL)
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:37 pm

ctrabs0114 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
That's a lot of F9 cuts at AUS.

F9 AUS-DTW MAY 0.6>0.2[0.4]
F9 AUS-MSP MAY 0.4>0.2[0.6]
Quite a few ONT routes were trimmed
*F9 AUS-ONT MAY 0.6>0[0.5] JUN 0.6>0[0.6] JUL 0.6>0.4[0.5]
F9 AUS-SEA MAY 0.3>0.1[0.5]
F9 AUS-SFO MAY 0.4>0.2[0]

About time to stick a fork in it?


Welcome to the F9 Dartboard of Doom. AUS isn't the first airport to get caught in this trap and they probably won't be the last.


Yup, it’s tough to get excited about F9 any more. They came into SJC with a swoop, and have left almost nothing behind. I don’t get this airline.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:52 pm

Regarding the increased MSN-SFO....my Uncle and Aunt took that flight last Thursday and the flight was completely full. They had to remove 9 people as the plane was to heavy to fly through the headwinds. Every day last week United either delayed or cancelled the MSN-SFO flight.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 2:05 pm

N766UA wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
SyracuseAvGeek wrote:

They realized the runway and airport didn’t meet the requirements for a CRJ200 to land there , I find it weird that the airline didn’t look into this before applying for the route.


Really? I guess that means Cape Air coming back to BOS is the most likely scenario.


Cape Air didn’t fly MSS-BOS, they flew MSS-ALB and, per Enrilia’s post, they’re dropping all Albany flying! Which is interesting because ALB’s a mx base and long-time destination.


I realize they didn’t fly MSS-BOS, but what they currently do is OGS-ALB-BOS. It’s going to be hard to replace ALB-BOS with anything other than a small plane as they have to compete with the interstate.
"I haven't been everywhere yet, but it's on my list."
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 2:14 pm

AirFiero wrote:
ctrabs0114 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
That's a lot of F9 cuts at AUS.

F9 AUS-DTW MAY 0.6>0.2[0.4]
F9 AUS-MSP MAY 0.4>0.2[0.6]
Quite a few ONT routes were trimmed
*F9 AUS-ONT MAY 0.6>0[0.5] JUN 0.6>0[0.6] JUL 0.6>0.4[0.5]
F9 AUS-SEA MAY 0.3>0.1[0.5]
F9 AUS-SFO MAY 0.4>0.2[0]

About time to stick a fork in it?


Welcome to the F9 Dartboard of Doom. AUS isn't the first airport to get caught in this trap and they probably won't be the last.


Yup, it’s tough to get excited about F9 any more. They came into SJC with a swoop, and have left almost nothing behind. I don’t get this airline.


They give it a try, and if it doesn't work they pull it and try something else. Why fly something that is not meeting their expecations? People love to make fun of them on here but it makes a lot of sense and many of the routes stick around and become a staple in their network.
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FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 2:28 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Whats interesting is their deployment model. They have numerous people that commute weekly like typical large consultancies doing M-Th / M-F trips and back home every weekend. They also have a large amount of employees that spend 2-4 weeks at a time on the ground during implementation phases that only make 1-2 trips out to a client site.


Epic also typically sends a few hundred employees out to any customer that is doing a major go-live or roll-out with their software to provide onsite support. For a few particularly large customers, it's been up to a few thousand people over the course of a few weeks. That must generate crazy peaks in travel demand, and I'm not sure if they work with DL, UA, etc. to try to manage those like they do with UGM.
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knope2001
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 3:17 pm

FSDan wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Whats interesting is their deployment model. They have numerous people that commute weekly like typical large consultancies doing M-Th / M-F trips and back home every weekend. They also have a large amount of employees that spend 2-4 weeks at a time on the ground during implementation phases that only make 1-2 trips out to a client site.


Epic also typically sends a few hundred employees out to any customer that is doing a major go-live or roll-out with their software to provide onsite support. For a few particularly large customers, it's been up to a few thousand people over the course of a few weeks. That must generate crazy peaks in travel demand, and I'm not sure if they work with DL, UA, etc. to try to manage those like they do with UGM.


I’ve been told that Epic participates in discussions between the airport and United and Delta which would typically be just airport/airline and Epic makes clear what they are looking for. What’s been a challenge to find is the actual extent to which Epic goes to get things from its wish list. They generate a ton of the high-fare business travel airlines used to live off of, and it could be as benign as corporate contracts making UA their preferred vendor, and United responding to that demand. But adding a second E75 on a longish monopoly route (rather than updating to mainline), and doing so for just one month, seems to be something other than the natural response to a growing market. As I said the user group meeting only generates a couple of traffic bubbles at the start and end of the late August conference, so they wouldn’t add a month-long SFO flight just for those two brief spikes. But this still has Epic’s fingerprints all over it. Makes one wonder if they have large implementation support event in the bay area and they specifically requested United have a morning nonstop. But that’s where it would be interesting to know the details of the relationship.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 3:26 pm

BBDFlyer wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
Thanks as always for this.

For MSS, didn’t Skywest just recently win the EAS bid? What’s going to happen there I wonder? Perhaps switch to DL branded Skywest ops to BOS or DTW?

The runway is too short.

https://www.regulations.gov/contentStreamer?documentId=DOT-OST-2012-0163-0051&attachmentNumber=1&contentType=pdf


5,601 feet isn't much for sure.
 
YYZORD
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 3:35 pm

AS will probably buy them and then rebrand B6 to AS like they did with Virgin America.

Super80Fan wrote:
The winding down of B6 operations continues. Get your flights on them while you can, they will not exist as a brand in 5-10 years.
 
YYZORD
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 3:35 pm

AS will probably buy them and then rebrand B6 to AS like they did with Virgin America.

Super80Fan wrote:
The winding down of B6 operations continues. Get your flights on them while you can, they will not exist as a brand in 5-10 years.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:03 pm

FLYKTPA wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
ctrabs0114 wrote:

Welcome to the F9 Dartboard of Doom. AUS isn't the first airport to get caught in this trap and they probably won't be the last.


Yup, it’s tough to get excited about F9 any more. They came into SJC with a swoop, and have left almost nothing behind. I don’t get this airline.


They give it a try, and if it doesn't work they pull it and try something else. Why fly something that is not meeting their expecations? People love to make fun of them on here but it makes a lot of sense and many of the routes stick around and become a staple in their network.


Do you have some examples?
 
F9LASDEN
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:08 pm

AirFiero wrote:
FLYKTPA wrote:
AirFiero wrote:

Yup, it’s tough to get excited about F9 any more. They came into SJC with a swoop, and have left almost nothing behind. I don’t get this airline.


They give it a try, and if it doesn't work they pull it and try something else. Why fly something that is not meeting their expecations? People love to make fun of them on here but it makes a lot of sense and many of the routes stick around and become a staple in their network.


Do you have some examples?


As far as I can tell, F9 has DEN, LAS, MCO, and (to a lesser extent PHL) as their 4 big stations that seem to stay relatively stable, as in they don’t add and cut like crazy in those stations. That’s not to say they don’t quickly cut some new routes in those stations (they definitely do), but in comparison to some cities that F9 seems to have tried to convert to focus cities in recent years, such as AUS or MIA, which both lost a large amount of routes they added only a short while beforehand (like one operating season, summer 2018 in the case of AUS and winter 2017-2018 in the case of MIA). Again, that’s not to say we haven’t seen this happen the 4 cities mentioned above. Examples of quick adds/drops I can think of for those stations include LAS-BIS/FSD, MCO-CUN/CID, and PHL-GRR/BHM. In general though, it seems that routes hang around for longer in those LAS, DEN, MCO, and (again, to a lesser extent) PHL. In fact, this OAG thread holds evidence that F9 is deciding to refocus a bit in some of those cities, especially DEN, this summer, seeing as quite a few routes in DEN are seeing increased frequencies compared to last summer (MCO, SFO, SAN, SEA, LAX, PDX, IAH, DFW, BUF, MIA, TPA, CLE, GSP, PHX, SYR, ALB, PWM, and STL are some routes out of DEN that will have increased capacity this summer compared to last summer). Of that DEN list, GSP, SYR, BUF, ALB, and PWM were new routes last summer that were criticized as “dartboard-esque” when they were announced but seem to have become at least somewhat successful. Some of them have even prompted responses from UA and WN to either resume some routes (like BUF-DEN on WN) or the announcement of new routes (PWM-DEN on UA).

UA has recently announced DEN-CHS/PNS/BVT/SYR/SAV/GSP/PWM, all routes F9 served first and haven’t been serving for long (all under one year except CHS, which is currently in its 13th month of service). Almost all of those inspired at least a little bit of a “that’ll never work/here comes the dartboard/F9 is a failing airline whose route planners have no idea what they’re doing” response on a.net, yet here comes UA launching a lot of the same services that F9 did. It wasn’t as if those are all immediate knee jerk reactions designed to scare F9 off before they even start; with the exception of BTV, F9 served all of those routes for at least several months (over a year in the case of CHS) before UA announced their intentions to serve the same routes.
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MIflyer12
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Tue Mar 05, 2019 12:33 am

FLYKTPA wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
ctrabs0114 wrote:

Welcome to the F9 Dartboard of Doom. AUS isn't the first airport to get caught in this trap and they probably won't be the last.


Yup, it’s tough to get excited about F9 any more. They came into SJC with a swoop, and have left almost nothing behind. I don’t get this airline.


They give it a try, and if it doesn't work they pull it and try something else. Why fly something that is not meeting their expecations? People love to make fun of them on here but it makes a lot of sense and many of the routes stick around and become a staple in their network.


You can try to rationalize their behavior but route success really isn't random. You gather some data (PDEWs, competition, corp. contracts), assess an ability to grow a market, and assign a probability of success. F9 has a lot of losers. Would I try AUS to 3 DL hubs knowing that DL has identified AUS as a focus city? I would not.
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:58 am

knope2001 wrote:
I’ve been told that Epic participates in discussions between the airport and United and Delta which would typically be just airport/airline and Epic makes clear what they are looking for.


I'd definitely believe that.

knope2001 wrote:
But adding a second E75 on a longish monopoly route (rather than updating to mainline), and doing so for just one month, seems to be something other than the natural response to a growing market.


I'm still not convinced this won't be a more permanent add eventually. It makes sense to add frequency here rather than gauge because the current flight doesn't connect well to the SFO-East Asia service that is one of the most compelling traffic flows over the SFO hub.
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F9LASDEN
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:25 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
FLYKTPA wrote:
AirFiero wrote:

Yup, it’s tough to get excited about F9 any more. They came into SJC with a swoop, and have left almost nothing behind. I don’t get this airline.


They give it a try, and if it doesn't work they pull it and try something else. Why fly something that is not meeting their expecations? People love to make fun of them on here but it makes a lot of sense and many of the routes stick around and become a staple in their network.


You can try to rationalize their behavior but route success really isn't random. You gather some data (PDEWs, competition, corp. contracts), assess an ability to grow a market, and assign a probability of success. F9 has a lot of losers. Would I try AUS to 3 DL hubs knowing that DL has identified AUS as a focus city? I would not.


The 5 DL hubs that F9 serves from AUS (DTW, MSP, ATL, SEA, SLC) all still have their F9 service from AUS that they had last year (SLC is year round, the other 4 are summer seasonal). All of them except SEA will be served 4x weekly this summer (SEA will be 3x weekly), which is either what they were at or higher than they were last summer. The three DL-hub routes from AUS shown in this update, DTW, SEA, and MSP, show as reduced for May not because F9 cut them, but because the seasonal start date for both was pushed back about 3 weeks, from 4/30 to 5/23, which makes sense given high summer demand probably doesn’t start picking up until closer to the end of May rather than the beginning. Again, those routes are not cut, but have just had their seasonal resumption date pushed back a couple of weeks. You may not choose to launch service to any DL hubs from AUS, but for F9, they assumingly performed at least as well as expected given they are all back this summer (I repeat again, NOT CUT) at either the same or higher frequency that they were flown at last summer.
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Tue Mar 05, 2019 4:25 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
FLYKTPA wrote:
AirFiero wrote:

Yup, it’s tough to get excited about F9 any more. They came into SJC with a swoop, and have left almost nothing behind. I don’t get this airline.


They give it a try, and if it doesn't work they pull it and try something else. Why fly something that is not meeting their expecations? People love to make fun of them on here but it makes a lot of sense and many of the routes stick around and become a staple in their network.


You can try to rationalize their behavior but route success really isn't random. You gather some data (PDEWs, competition, corp. contracts), assess an ability to grow a market, and assign a probability of success. F9 has a lot of losers. Would I try AUS to 3 DL hubs knowing that DL has identified AUS as a focus city? I would not.


But of course Delta has said no such thing, that AUS would be a focus city. All that ever happened was a LinkedIn job posting 18 months ago and a rooftop patio built. From that came the fanboys who pronounced that AUS was a focus city or new hub or whatever. That group of individuals has largely abandoned posting that stuff to this website and gone elsewhere, now claiming that Delta would be adding ** 60 ** new additonal AUS flights. By August 2019. ROFL.

Maybe the F9 cuts are because the F9 dart throwers confused truth and pipedreams of the DL fanboys? Lol
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Tue Mar 05, 2019 4:53 am

Hello enilria!

I’m a 7+ years member of A.net (as from the days of paid membership) and simply, I want to acknowledge your unwavering dedication to this forum ~ thank YOU a million-and-one times. Your spirit of dedication is beyond; the heart of a.net is you and I’m grateful for your time.

Happy 2019 and beyond!

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AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:36 am

F9LASDEN wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
FLYKTPA wrote:

They give it a try, and if it doesn't work they pull it and try something else. Why fly something that is not meeting their expecations? People love to make fun of them on here but it makes a lot of sense and many of the routes stick around and become a staple in their network.


Do you have some examples?


As far as I can tell, F9 has DEN, LAS, MCO, and (to a lesser extent PHL) as their 4 big stations that seem to stay relatively stable, as in they don’t add and cut like crazy in those stations. That’s not to say they don’t quickly cut some new routes in those stations (they definitely do), but in comparison to some cities that F9 seems to have tried to convert to focus cities in recent years, such as AUS or MIA, which both lost a large amount of routes they added only a short while beforehand (like one operating season, summer 2018 in the case of AUS and winter 2017-2018 in the case of MIA). Again, that’s not to say we haven’t seen this happen the 4 cities mentioned above. Examples of quick adds/drops I can think of for those stations include LAS-BIS/FSD, MCO-CUN/CID, and PHL-GRR/BHM. In general though, it seems that routes hang around for longer in those LAS, DEN, MCO, and (again, to a lesser extent) PHL. In fact, this OAG thread holds evidence that F9 is deciding to refocus a bit in some of those cities, especially DEN, this summer, seeing as quite a few routes in DEN are seeing increased frequencies compared to last summer (MCO, SFO, SAN, SEA, LAX, PDX, IAH, DFW, BUF, MIA, TPA, CLE, GSP, PHX, SYR, ALB, PWM, and STL are some routes out of DEN that will have increased capacity this summer compared to last summer). Of that DEN list, GSP, SYR, BUF, ALB, and PWM were new routes last summer that were criticized as “dartboard-esque” when they were announced but seem to have become at least somewhat successful. Some of them have even prompted responses from UA and WN to either resume some routes (like BUF-DEN on WN) or the announcement of new routes (PWM-DEN on UA).

UA has recently announced DEN-CHS/PNS/BVT/SYR/SAV/GSP/PWM, all routes F9 served first and haven’t been serving for long (all under one year except CHS, which is currently in its 13th month of service). Almost all of those inspired at least a little bit of a “that’ll never work/here comes the dartboard/F9 is a failing airline whose route planners have no idea what they’re doing” response on a.net, yet here comes UA launching a lot of the same services that F9 did. It wasn’t as if those are all immediate knee jerk reactions designed to scare F9 off before they even start; with the exception of BTV, F9 served all of those routes for at least several months (over a year in the case of CHS) before UA announced their intentions to serve the same routes.


Thanks for the thorough response!

I just have seen so many adds and drops, I was wondering if they kept any of particular routes for very long.

I can't understand why they don't have at least one or two hub banks at Denver. Why not offer a ULCC hub, in the center of the country, to so many varied destinations?
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:05 am

AirFiero wrote:
F9LASDEN wrote:
AirFiero wrote:

Do you have some examples?


As far as I can tell, F9 has DEN, LAS, MCO, and (to a lesser extent PHL) as their 4 big stations that seem to stay relatively stable, as in they don’t add and cut like crazy in those stations. That’s not to say they don’t quickly cut some new routes in those stations (they definitely do), but in comparison to some cities that F9 seems to have tried to convert to focus cities in recent years, such as AUS or MIA, which both lost a large amount of routes they added only a short while beforehand (like one operating season, summer 2018 in the case of AUS and winter 2017-2018 in the case of MIA). Again, that’s not to say we haven’t seen this happen the 4 cities mentioned above. Examples of quick adds/drops I can think of for those stations include LAS-BIS/FSD, MCO-CUN/CID, and PHL-GRR/BHM. In general though, it seems that routes hang around for longer in those LAS, DEN, MCO, and (again, to a lesser extent) PHL. In fact, this OAG thread holds evidence that F9 is deciding to refocus a bit in some of those cities, especially DEN, this summer, seeing as quite a few routes in DEN are seeing increased frequencies compared to last summer (MCO, SFO, SAN, SEA, LAX, PDX, IAH, DFW, BUF, MIA, TPA, CLE, GSP, PHX, SYR, ALB, PWM, and STL are some routes out of DEN that will have increased capacity this summer compared to last summer). Of that DEN list, GSP, SYR, BUF, ALB, and PWM were new routes last summer that were criticized as “dartboard-esque” when they were announced but seem to have become at least somewhat successful. Some of them have even prompted responses from UA and WN to either resume some routes (like BUF-DEN on WN) or the announcement of new routes (PWM-DEN on UA).

UA has recently announced DEN-CHS/PNS/BVT/SYR/SAV/GSP/PWM, all routes F9 served first and haven’t been serving for long (all under one year except CHS, which is currently in its 13th month of service). Almost all of those inspired at least a little bit of a “that’ll never work/here comes the dartboard/F9 is a failing airline whose route planners have no idea what they’re doing” response on a.net, yet here comes UA launching a lot of the same services that F9 did. It wasn’t as if those are all immediate knee jerk reactions designed to scare F9 off before they even start; with the exception of BTV, F9 served all of those routes for at least several months (over a year in the case of CHS) before UA announced their intentions to serve the same routes.


Thanks for the thorough response!

I just have seen so many adds and drops, I was wondering if they kept any of particular routes for very long.

I can't understand why they don't have at least one or two hub banks at Denver. Why not offer a ULCC hub, in the center of the country, to so many varied destinations?


They have built one kind of quasi-bank in DEN, but it operates in kind of a weird fashion:

-Flights come in from a lot of their smaller eastern destinations (such as BUF, SYR, ALB, PWM, places like that) in between 7pm and 9pm
-A wave of departures to destinations west of DEN goes out around 10pm (current destinations with departures in this window include SFO, SEA, PDX, LAX, LAS, PHX, SLC; ABQ, RNO, and ONT have had flights in this window in the recent past and SAN is due to have a departure around this time this coming summer)
-Returns from western destinations arrive in DEN between 4:00am-4:30am, operating as a red eye of sorts (PDX, LAX, SFO, SEA, and LAS have currently have arrivals during this time, with RNO having had one as well in the recent past; SMF was due to have one this summer but was recently updated to an afternoon departure from DEN/late evening return to DEN)
-Departures to eastern destinations (both the smaller ones like BUF, PWM, SYR, etc., and also some larger ones like MCO, CLT, CUN, ORD, to list a few examples) between 6am-6:30am

Again, a bit of a strange setup, and one that runs during a highly obnoxious, borderline inhumane time of day, but it’s the closest thing I’ve seen F9 have to a bank in the recent past. I assume F9 sees it as an opportunity to keep planes in the air rather than on the ground overnight, and that they’re doing well enough with it that they continue to operate, and even grow, it (they initially started with SFO, LAX, and LAS in this system back in fall of 2017, and have since added SEA, PDX, and RNO). It’s imperfect since not all possible destinations work in both directions (SLC, PHX, and effective this summer, SAN, only work when going westbound, and only some larger eastern direction that work in both directions, like ORD and MCO, with the rest of them like the aforementioned CLT, CUN only working when going eastbound) but it’s a start.

DEN is no longer their sole hub or lifeline to their entire network, but it’s still a significant station for F9 and one that they don’t tend to route-bomb with 10-15 new routes at a time, as well as one that manages to hangs on to routes a lot better than stations like AUS. They serve 98 destinations from DEN (a fair amount of them subdaily, but still) and as far as I know, the only drops they’ve made there in the past year or so are GSO and SJD, neither of which were rapid-fire add-and-drop destinations; GSO was served for 6 years and SJD was around for a lot longer than that. Plus, DEN has a much higher ratio of daily or even multi-daily routes than a lot of their other stations (even MCO and LAS); this summer, the following routes are slated to be at least once daily (quite a bit of them two or more daily) this summer from DEN:
-ATL (1x-2x daily)
-AUS (1x daily)
-BOS (1x daily)
-CLT (1x daily)
-ORD (1x-2x daily)
-CVG (1x-2x daily)
-CLE (1x-2x daily)
-DFW (2x daily)
-DTW (1x daily)
-FLL (1x daily)
-IAH (2x daily)
-MCI (1x daily)
-LAS (3x-4x daily)
-LAX (2x daily)
-MIA (1x daily)
-MKE (1x daily)
-MSP (2x daily)
-BNA (1x daily)
-MSY (1x daily)
-LGA (1x daily)
-SNA (1x-2x daily)
-MCO (2x daily)
-PHL (1x daily)
-PHX (2x daily)
-PDX (2x daily)
-SLC (2x-3x daily)
-RDU (1x daily)
-SAT (1x daily)
-SAN (2x daily)
-SFO (2x-3x daily)
-SEA (2x daily)
-STL (2x daily)
-TPA (1x daily)
-DCA (3x daily)
-IAD (1x daily)

Summary of my long-winded rant(s): contrary to popular a.net belief, F9 is not ALL about wild adding and dropping at a moment’s notice (though it is certainly an interesting business practice that they engage in more than most airlines do or would even consider doing), and there are plentiful examples of routes they add that end up sticking around for a long time. In addition, they have several stable hubs/focus cities in their network that manage to hang on to routes just fine.
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Re: OAG Changes 3/3/2019: Air Italy Cancels Chicago Flights, United Cancels Massena (MSS)

Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:05 pm

Thanks again, F9LASDEN.

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