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Speedalive
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Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Sun Mar 03, 2019 10:00 pm

Does anybody happen to know where Westjet is planning on deploying the 787's once the seasonal YYC-DUB/CDG routes come to an end? Added transcon capacity to YYZ or upgauged Caribbean/Hawaii flying? What about the 67's? I'm guessing more Hawaii?
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:52 pm

I'm thinking it'll be YYZ/YYC-LGW, and YYC-YYZ, maybe with some Hawaii flying mixed in on peak days.

YYC-LGW we know for sure is happening, I cannot imagine they don't put the 789 on the YYZ flight.
 
AirNovaBAe146
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:14 am

That will be a really interesting thing to watch, whenever the fall '19 / winter '20 schedule comes out, which it should within a few months.

My $ is on ~ 2 B787s doing LGW flights. YYC will probably have its frequency trimmed from daily to 4-5 times per week. YVR may get 2-4 frequencies per week as they introduce the B787 product to other markets, and YYZ will have daily service, upgraded from the 767 to the 787. That accounts for ~12-16 flights per week from three Canadian cities to LGW, which is slightly more than 2 aircraft worth of utilization. The remaining 787 will be essentially a reserve, strategically scheduled between YYC - YYZ - YVR so as to be a backup should one of the aircraft have a maintenance issue. Figure probably 4-6 domestic roundtrips per week between those markets.

The wildcard in all this is if WS introduces a new destination, presumably in the Southern hemisphere, Asia, South America, or perhaps the Middle East for their schedule from October onwards. It is well known that WS' current CEO is a Kiwi, used to have that position with Air NZ, plus was integral in Air NZ widebody ops when he was there. Doubtlessly he would feel great pride were he able to introduce YVR - AKL service, say 3x / week, which would soak up about one airplane worth of capacity. I'm guessing that is why AC recently upped service on that route, almost as a preventive move. Possibly WS could target SYD or MEL in Australia, or HKG, Japan, or a mainland China destination. As yields are low for Asia, and with seven Chinese carriers serving YVR, if WS is going to cross the Pacific my guess would be Australia.

One other WS wildcard destination: DXB. With their Emirates codeshare, 3-4 years worth of data from exchanging passengers at LGW, plus 4 remaining Canada - DXB frequencies, we may see WS introduce (pick one) YYC / YVR / YYZ - DXB. Emirates would doubtlessly fill the airplane with connecting passengers, so although it would be a ULH flight, it would be as safe a bet as a ULH flight could be.

Then the other factor is what the WS B767s will do come winter schedule next year. This current winter they have used the B767 on the YYZ / YYC - LGW flights and also mixed them in on various AB / BC - Hawaii rotations. I think next winter they'll have them fully deployed out of YYZ, doing Caribbean flying to high-demand places such as MBJ, PUJ, CUN, PVR, FLL, MCO, MIA, TPA, ie locales where their 262 passenger capacity and belly freight capability will be utilized. A 767 efficiently scheduled out of YYZ could do 2 southern rotations in a day. With four of them, WS could balance that type of flying and the occasional YYZ - YYC / YVR redeye, which are also high-demand.

AN
 
CFWAD
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:31 am

The Canadian dollar is going to be the biggest thing that dictates the 763 and 788 in the winter season.

I agree, seeing the 763s out of YYZ to do Caribbean flying and maybe some MCO/FLL. Would be increased competition to what the capacity Rouge puts on those routes (and has the fleet flexibility). I could even see a possible YYZ-HNL depending on how WS Vacations can up sell the market.

I still just have this weird feeling of seeing WS's 763s in Swoop colours a few years down the line and flying to LGW in the summer and some current WS Southern routes in the winter. I have a hard time believing WS will be able to profit premium fares from LGW routes. Zero connectivity to the rest of Europe to boot. And they've gone on record they don't intend to undercut AC pricing so not sure what premium LGW/DUB market they are going after. CDG maybe.
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whywhyzee
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:31 am

AirNovaBAe146 wrote:
That will be a really interesting thing to watch, whenever the fall '19 / winter '20 schedule comes out, which it should within a few months.

My $ is on ~ 2 B787s doing LGW flights. YYC will probably have its frequency trimmed from daily to 4-5 times per week. YVR may get 2-4 frequencies per week as they introduce the B787 product to other markets, and YYZ will have daily service, upgraded from the 767 to the 787. That accounts for ~12-16 flights per week from three Canadian cities to LGW, which is slightly more than 2 aircraft worth of utilization. The remaining 787 will be essentially a reserve, strategically scheduled between YYC - YYZ - YVR so as to be a backup should one of the aircraft have a maintenance issue. Figure probably 4-6 domestic roundtrips per week between those markets.

The wildcard in all this is if WS introduces a new destination, presumably in the Southern hemisphere, Asia, South America, or perhaps the Middle East for their schedule from October onwards. It is well known that WS' current CEO is a Kiwi, used to have that position with Air NZ, plus was integral in Air NZ widebody ops when he was there. Doubtlessly he would feel great pride were he able to introduce YVR - AKL service, say 3x / week, which would soak up about one airplane worth of capacity. I'm guessing that is why AC recently upped service on that route, almost as a preventive move. Possibly WS could target SYD or MEL in Australia, or HKG, Japan, or a mainland China destination. As yields are low for Asia, and with seven Chinese carriers serving YVR, if WS is going to cross the Pacific my guess would be Australia.

One other WS wildcard destination: DXB. With their Emirates codeshare, 3-4 years worth of data from exchanging passengers at LGW, plus 4 remaining Canada - DXB frequencies, we may see WS introduce (pick one) YYC / YVR / YYZ - DXB. Emirates would doubtlessly fill the airplane with connecting passengers, so although it would be a ULH flight, it would be as safe a bet as a ULH flight could be.

Then the other factor is what the WS B767s will do come winter schedule next year. This current winter they have used the B767 on the YYZ / YYC - LGW flights and also mixed them in on various AB / BC - Hawaii rotations. I think next winter they'll have them fully deployed out of YYZ, doing Caribbean flying to high-demand places such as MBJ, PUJ, CUN, PVR, FLL, MCO, MIA, TPA, ie locales where their 262 passenger capacity and belly freight capability will be utilized. A 767 efficiently scheduled out of YYZ could do 2 southern rotations in a day. With four of them, WS could balance that type of flying and the occasional YYZ - YYC / YVR redeye, which are also high-demand.

AN


The only currently showing route on the 789 for the winter is 3x weekly YYC-LGW. To me, that seems low on the frequency, but they seem to be intent on trimming things a little I suppose. That leaves ~ 2.5 aircrafts for utilization purposes.
 
Jayce
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:25 am

CFWAD wrote:
I still just have this weird feeling of seeing WS's 763s in Swoop colours a few years down the line and flying to LGW in the summer and some current WS Southern routes in the winter.


I believe the current scope language in the pilot’s contract prevents Swoop from operating widebodies.
"Trying is the first step towards failure" -Homer Simpson
 
BML87
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:48 am

Based on the illustrative map released by WestJet several years ago, perhaps we'll see some creative southern hemisphere routes?

From YVR: Nadi, Rarotonga, Lima, Santiago, Buenos Aires
From YYZ: Rio de Janeiro

Image
 
ac33e
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:04 am

BML87 wrote:
Based on the illustrative map released by WestJet several years ago, perhaps we'll see some creative southern hemisphere routes?

From YVR: Nadi, Rarotonga, Lima, Santiago, Buenos Aires
From YYZ: Rio de Janeiro

Image


Let's see how their stock would do if they announced 3/4 of these routes.
 
Speedalive
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:19 am

I highly doubt they're going to launch a South American destination next for the 87. I think the first thing that will be accomplished is to cover all the LGW flying with dreamliners and then we'll see them start more European destinations from YYZ/YVR (eg: CDG, AMS, FRA). I personally feel that if WS wants to be seen as a true FSC, they'll eventually need to move their London flights to LHR and beef up their J cabins, but with their low J config, I think they'll be fine with LGW until the new runway at LHR opens up and more slots become available. Hopefully by that point, their brand will be seen more as a direct competitor to AC, especially once they've built themselves a sizable European operation. It's by far the lower risk option and with a potential recession on the way, I think they'd be smart to remain conservative for now, which they've been doing well so far. With the next batch, and if the economy is still strong, I could see them try Asia and South America, but I think they should launch them in tandem in an effort to be a player in the Asia to South America market (eg: YVR-NRT and YVR-GRU). Another option could be to try and steal some market share from AC/QF on YVR-Australia. Though Ed Sims is from NZ, I don't think that market would sustain much more service than it already does. Whatever Westjet does, I hope they make better use of their 787's than YYC-CDG/DUB. I'm still puzzled by that. As a YYC spotter it's very much welcome though.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:36 am

Speedalive wrote:
I highly doubt they're going to launch a South American destination next for the 87. I think the first thing that will be accomplished is to cover all the LGW flying with dreamliners and then we'll see them start more European destinations from YYZ/YVR (eg: CDG, AMS, FRA). I personally feel that if WS wants to be seen as a true FSC, they'll eventually need to move their London flights to LHR and beef up their J cabins, but with their low J config, I think they'll be fine with LGW until the new runway at LHR opens up and more slots become available. Hopefully by that point, their brand will be seen more as a direct competitor to AC, especially once they've built themselves a sizable European operation. It's by far the lower risk option and with a potential recession on the way, I think they'd be smart to remain conservative for now, which they've been doing well so far. With the next batch, and if the economy is still strong, I could see them try Asia and South America, but I think they should launch them in tandem in an effort to be a player in the Asia to South America market (eg: YVR-NRT and YVR-GRU). Another option could be to try and steal some market share from AC/QF on YVR-Australia. Though Ed Sims is from NZ, I don't think that market would sustain much more service than it already does. Whatever Westjet does, I hope they make better use of their 787's than YYC-CDG/DUB. I'm still puzzled by that. As a YYC spotter it's very much welcome though.


You aren't alone in questioning their initial routes. The best answer I can come up with is that they are hedging their bets and proving to their home base market that they aren't going to effectively leave them out to dry like AC, who isn't exactly well regarded in Alberta. They have proven their dedication to the market at what is likely going to be a summer of lackluster results, and ultimately, a huge missed revenue opportunity that could have been gained from other hubs. Like I said, this probably wasn't an accident, and I can't say it isn't at least somewhat clever. Alberta is their safety net, it is their loyal base, their insulation. By sacrificing the big market routes out east and west, they just won a lot of loyalty from Albertans, further cementing their position in Calgary. From here, they can branch out, this winter especially, they have opportunity to explore more viable year round options elsewhere to balance the network.

I think their configuration speaks to their position, they are transitioning, and looking to serve Canadian travellers, by offering a product more akin to a hybrid offering, with a lower J class, relatively large PY and Y compared to AC, they will likely fill a slightly different space in the market compared to AC. Moving forward, I would look to skyteam hubs as potential new routes, given their growing partnerships with the alliance. Paris and Amsterdam are likely to feature from other hubs in the future, given their relationships with AF/KLM. Both of those hubs are also seeing really strong growth from Canada (`10% YoY from major airports) and would be easy to fill in all cabins, with year round potential. I'd also look to YYC-NRT as a strong contender, that was always a prestigious route for YYC airport, and I know for a fact their airport authority is keen to see that back to year round operation. The 789 in the WS configuration could be what the route needs vs the AC 763. Remember, even through next summer, they will only have 5 frames at their disposal, making it somewhat challenging to operate more than ~ 5 intercontinental routes. Hawaii is always an option in the off season, it has been growing across the board from Canada lately and has formed quite a competitive market against big red.

My prediction for W19: YYC-LGW 3x weekly, YYZ-LGW daily, YYZ-YYC daily, YYC-HNL 3x weekly
S20: YYC-LGW Daily, YYZ-LGW Daily, YYC-CDG 4x weekly, YYC-DUB 3x weekly, YYZ-YYC Daily, YYZ-AMS 4x weekly, YYC-AMS 3x weekly. That accounts for 5 frames of utilization, and if anything hits the fan, the YYZ-YYC can easily be replaced by 2x narrowbodies and that frame quickly subbed in, operating as a hot spare of sorts on a market that benefits from widebody service when the frame can in any case, and runs between the two hubs that need the frame for internationals. (recall AC has 3x daily widebodies with lie flats on YYZ-YYC, WestJet really has to compete here, that is their gravy route).
 
Speedalive
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:53 am

whywhyzee wrote:
You aren't alone in questioning their initial routes. The best answer I can come up with is that they are hedging their bets and proving to their home base market that they aren't going to effectively leave them out to dry like AC, who isn't exactly well regarded in Alberta. They have proven their dedication to the market at what is likely going to be a summer of lackluster results, and ultimately, a huge missed revenue opportunity that could have been gained from other hubs. Like I said, this probably wasn't an accident, and I can't say it isn't at least somewhat clever. Alberta is their safety net, it is their loyal base, their insulation. By sacrificing the big market routes out east and west, they just won a lot of loyalty from Albertans, further cementing their position in Calgary. From here, they can branch out, this winter especially, they have opportunity to explore more viable year round options elsewhere to balance the network.

I think their configuration speaks to their position, they are transitioning, and looking to serve Canadian travellers, by offering a product more akin to a hybrid offering, with a lower J class, relatively large PY and Y compared to AC, they will likely fill a slightly different space in the market compared to AC. Moving forward, I would look to skyteam hubs as potential new routes, given their growing partnerships with the alliance. Paris and Amsterdam are likely to feature from other hubs in the future, given their relationships with AF/KLM. Both of those hubs are also seeing really strong growth from Canada (`10% YoY from major airports) and would be easy to fill in all cabins, with year round potential. I'd also look to YYC-NRT as a strong contender, that was always a prestigious route for YYC airport, and I know for a fact their airport authority is keen to see that back to year round operation. The 789 in the WS configuration could be what the route needs vs the AC 763. Remember, even through next summer, they will only have 5 frames at their disposal, making it somewhat challenging to operate more than ~ 5 intercontinental routes. Hawaii is always an option in the off season, it has been growing across the board from Canada lately and has formed quite a competitive market against big red.

My prediction for W19: YYC-LGW 3x weekly, YYZ-LGW daily, YYZ-YYC daily, YYC-HNL 3x weekly
S20: YYC-LGW Daily, YYZ-LGW Daily, YYC-CDG 4x weekly, YYC-DUB 3x weekly, YYZ-YYC Daily, YYZ-AMS 4x weekly, YYC-AMS 3x weekly. That accounts for 5 frames of utilization, and if anything hits the fan, the YYZ-YYC can easily be replaced by 2x narrowbodies and that frame quickly subbed in, operating as a hot spare of sorts on a market that benefits from widebody service when the frame can in any case, and runs between the two hubs that need the frame for internationals. (recall AC has 3x daily widebodies with lie flats on YYZ-YYC, WestJet really has to compete here, that is their gravy route).

I agree.. that's pretty much the only explanation I can think of. They are very much the preferred carrier in Alberta and have an extremely loyal customer base here. If YYC-DUB/CDG are going to work, it will be because of a combination of that loyalty and some healthy connecting traffic, but I definitely think they would've profited more out of YYZ. Though I'm a skeptic of their initial routes' success, I am very much rooting for them.

I like how you put it. They are in a transition phase and it will be interesting to see how it all unfolds. I'm particularly interested in what will come of their domestic product and how the service will be differentiated from their long haul service. At the moment there's a complete disconnect between their long haul product and domestic product and it concerns me a little. Imagine being pampered in J from CDG to YYC and then getting put into domestic Plus with a blocked middle seat (I realize the middle seat will be removed eventually, but this will be the reality for a while). I imagine there will be some confusion as a result. I'm also quite curious about if and how they will replace the 767's - with another type or a no J 789 possibly? It's interesting how the 767's are being configured strictly as Y+/Y and being sent to places like BCN. It's almost like AC Rouge but under the same Westjet banner. Hybrid is definitely the right word to describe Westjet.

For W19, I think they will probably keep YYC-LGW daily on the 787 for W19. It's the flagship route out of YYC and with their customer loyalty out here, I can see them keeping it around. Additionally, if BA pulls out next winter again, it'll help keep the loads steady in the off season. I don't think YYZ long haul will happen until they get the next batch of 87's next year so they can really commit to it. I just think it might further add to customer confusion if one route is split between a non J and J aircraft. I'm thinking YYC-LGW daily, YYZ-YYC daily, and maybe a same aircraft service from YYZ-YYC-alternating between HNL/OGG as well as continuing with their plan to base the 767's in YYZ doing high density Caribbean and LGW. If they do go longhaul from Pearson, I bet it'll be daily LGW along with YYC and just a daily YYC-YYZ.

For S20, I'm anticipating that YYC-DUB won't return. I think it was just a placeholder and they could potentially throw a 767 on YYZ-DUB either daily or rotate it with FCO/ATH/EDI/etc.. or an extra 737 frequency on YYC-YHZ-DUB. Given their AF/KLM relationship, they could switch DUB with AMS and have the plane do YYC-CDG 4x +AMS 3x and YYC-LGW will remain daily. That leaves us with 3 unaccounted aircraft. I could see them launch YYZ-LGW daily and YYZ-CDG 4x and YYZ-AMS 3x and continue with the YYC-YYZ daily as the spare. Alternatively, if they're feeling risky, they could throw the last 87 on YVR-LGW daily or maybe even YYC-NRT which I definitely overlooked. The CAA would probably give them some real good incentives to bring it back year round which would be doable with the 5 aircraft fleet.
[/quote]
 
zkncj
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:25 am

Wonder how an 3x weekly tri-angle route would work for them? eg YVR-AKL-SYD-YVR.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:11 am

zkncj wrote:
Wonder how an 3x weekly tri-angle route would work for them? eg YVR-AKL-SYD-YVR.

These sorts of routes are great for the purpose of bleeding money ever.

Michael
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:41 pm

Given AC just announced YVR-AKL, and their very extensive coverage of Australia (arguably the most extensive of any North American airline), it would be ill advised to try that market. It is also an extremely long flight, requiring appropriate yields to make it work. Not to mention it requires a lot of aircraft, a luxury WS does not yet have. Focussing on routes that can be operated with one frame for a daily rotation is probably ideal right now. Eventually, if they go beyond 10 787s, which seems quite likely assuming market and economic conditions don't change drastically, then maybe they might consider venturing out a little.
 
Jayce
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:29 pm

WestJet expanded their codeshare with Qantas last December so I wouldn’t be completely surprised to see them launch YVR-SYD. AC is the only airline on the route year round and with Qantas retiring their 747 fleet, maybe the timing is right.
"Trying is the first step towards failure" -Homer Simpson
 
ac7e7
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:27 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
Speedalive wrote:
I highly doubt they're going to launch a South American destination next for the 87. I think the first thing that will be accomplished is to cover all the LGW flying with dreamliners and then we'll see them start more European destinations from YYZ/YVR (eg: CDG, AMS, FRA). I personally feel that if WS wants to be seen as a true FSC, they'll eventually need to move their London flights to LHR and beef up their J cabins, but with their low J config, I think they'll be fine with LGW until the new runway at LHR opens up and more slots become available. Hopefully by that point, their brand will be seen more as a direct competitor to AC, especially once they've built themselves a sizable European operation. It's by far the lower risk option and with a potential recession on the way, I think they'd be smart to remain conservative for now, which they've been doing well so far. With the next batch, and if the economy is still strong, I could see them try Asia and South America, but I think they should launch them in tandem in an effort to be a player in the Asia to South America market (eg: YVR-NRT and YVR-GRU). Another option could be to try and steal some market share from AC/QF on YVR-Australia. Though Ed Sims is from NZ, I don't think that market would sustain much more service than it already does. Whatever Westjet does, I hope they make better use of their 787's than YYC-CDG/DUB. I'm still puzzled by that. As a YYC spotter it's very much welcome though.


You aren't alone in questioning their initial routes. The best answer I can come up with is that they are hedging their bets and proving to their home base market that they aren't going to effectively leave them out to dry like AC, who isn't exactly well regarded in Alberta. They have proven their dedication to the market at what is likely going to be a summer of lackluster results, and ultimately, a huge missed revenue opportunity that could have been gained from other hubs. Like I said, this probably wasn't an accident, and I can't say it isn't at least somewhat clever. Alberta is their safety net, it is their loyal base, their insulation. By sacrificing the big market routes out east and west, they just won a lot of loyalty from Albertans, further cementing their position in Calgary. From here, they can branch out, this winter especially, they have opportunity to explore more viable year round options elsewhere to balance the network.


I don’t think AC “isn’t well regarded in Alberta”. I have lived here for almost 10 years, and I find Calgarian’s attitudes towards AC not much different from the rest of the country... either you love them or hate them. Either way, people fly them. Westjet will always have a hometown advantage, but there is not significant hate towards Air Canada. AC still has a significant presence at YYC. Westjet has a bigger problem winning market share in Quebec vs Air Canada in Alberta.

Calgary is a secondary hub for Air Canada compared to YYZ/YUL/YVR. Even after the CP merger, Air Canada did not build up the YYC hub. CP’s international traffic almost all routed through Vancouver and Toronto. Calgary will not become a Vancouver. The market is limited, even when the economy is good. Most international traffic will continue to route through Vancouver and Toronto for both carriers.

Westjet will add some international destinations from Calgary, but will then deploy most of their widebody fleet in Vancouver and Toronto.
 
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OA940
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:13 pm

Didn't they say when they first ordered the 787 they would look at Asian routes? TYO and PEK could work for them. Meanwhile I could see the 787 reach more European destinations in the summer.
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OA940
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:22 pm

Didn't they say when they first ordered the 787 they would look at Asian routes? TYO and PEK could work for them. Meanwhile I could see the 787 reach more European destinations in the summer.
A350/CSeries = bae
 
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longhauler
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:35 pm

ac7e7 wrote:
I don’t think AC “isn’t well regarded in Alberta”. I have lived here for almost 10 years, and I find Calgarian’s attitudes towards AC not much different from the rest of the country... either you love them or hate them. Either way, people fly them.


Indeed. In fact it has only been the last few years that WS actually exceeded AC with passenger numbers out of YYC as YYC has always been pretty strong for AC.

OA940 wrote:
Didn't they say when they first ordered the 787 they would look at Asian routes? TYO and PEK could work for them. Meanwhile I could see the 787 reach more European destinations in the summer.

If WS actually gets NRT/HND or PEK slots, they'd be far better off sending their very expensive 787 on a route that can support it ... like YVR or YYZ. And that is a huge if. The waiting list for prime TYO slots is decades long and AC was turned down by the Chinese for PEK slots a few years ago to open up the YYC-PEK route.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
marcogr12
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:37 pm

Shouldn't they start thinking about expanding from YUL as well to challenge the AC-Rouge dominance?Also they should think about codesharing with Easyjet thru its worldwide by Easyjet programme that has the airline connecting with major airlines not only out of LGW but out of a multitude of European airports
Flying is breathing..no planes no life..
 
Speedalive
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:09 pm

longhauler wrote:
ac7e7 wrote:
If WS actually gets NRT/HND or PEK slots, they'd be far better off sending their very expensive 787 on a route that can support it ... like YVR or YYZ. And that is a huge if. The waiting list for prime TYO slots is decades long and AC was turned down by the Chinese for PEK slots a few years ago to open up the YYC-PEK route.

Although they probably would make more on YVR/YYZ-NRT/HND, I could see them launch Tokyo from YYC to start, playing on their momentum here. The calgary airport authority would probably give them incentives to start it and they could have same plane service from YYZ like AC9/10 did. Whywhyzee made a good point about how their current config would probably be perfect for that route. They’d also have no competition unless AC restarts the route. I think they ought to have a higher J config for YVR/YYZ-Asia. Same with Europe once they have a stronger foothold in the market.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:29 am

Do these 787s have crew rest areas? Another words can they fly to Asia or Australia /NZ?
 
cylw
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:36 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Do these 787s have crew rest areas? Another words can they fly to Asia or Australia /NZ?


Yes they do.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:55 am

cylw wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Do these 787s have crew rest areas? Another words can they fly to Asia or Australia /NZ?


Yes they do.


Thanks, there IIRC was some talk or rumour of WS to AKL a while back, seems a stretch to me even more so now that AC have announced seasonal YVR-AKL.
 
ac33e
Posts: 83
Joined: Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:14 pm

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:41 am

Speedalive wrote:
longhauler wrote:
ac7e7 wrote:
If WS actually gets NRT/HND or PEK slots, they'd be far better off sending their very expensive 787 on a route that can support it ... like YVR or YYZ. And that is a huge if. The waiting list for prime TYO slots is decades long and AC was turned down by the Chinese for PEK slots a few years ago to open up the YYC-PEK route.

Although they probably would make more on YVR/YYZ-NRT/HND, I could see them launch Tokyo from YYC to start, playing on their momentum here. The calgary airport authority would probably give them incentives to start it and they could have same plane service from YYZ like AC9/10 did. Whywhyzee made a good point about how their current config would probably be perfect for that route. They’d also have no competition unless AC restarts the route. I think they ought to have a higher J config for YVR/YYZ-Asia. Same with Europe once they have a stronger foothold in the market.


Mind you that AC still flies that route daily for roughly 6/12 months. That is no indication that the route would be cancelled. A 787/330 could easily be rotated with AC's LHR/FRA service.
 
Thenoflyzone
Posts: 2977
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2001 4:42 am

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:57 pm

AirNovaBAe146 wrote:
if WS is going to cross the Pacific my guess would be Australia.



Highly doubt that. Yields to Australia are under pressure, same as to Asia. With all the recent additions by AC, QF and the US3, there is a lot of capacity to be absorbed between North America and Australia. Same thing with New Zealand, now that AC will launch AKL. Last thing you will see is WS launching a destination where they are the 3rd airline on the route. (Look at YYC-DUB and YYC-CDG. No direct competitor on both routes)

YYC-NRT or YYC-ICN are the most likey Asian routes for WS. They would at least be the only carrier on YYC-ICN, and the only year round carrier on YYC-NRT, which would drive up yields.

Speedalive wrote:
With the next batch, and if the economy is still strong, I could see them try Asia and South America, but I think they should launch them in tandem in an effort to be a player in the Asia to South America market (eg: YVR-NRT and YVR-GRU).


If you wan to time a daily YVR-GRU-YVR to connect with a daily YVR-NRT-YVR, you would need at least 3 frames to operate both routes. The plane would need to sit in GRU for 12 hours (or so) in order for the return flight to connect with YVR-NRT. That doesn't make much financial sense, at least not with only 10 787s on order. Maybe once they have their 10 frames, and they exercice their 10 options, will you see South American service.

Simply look at ACs YYZ-GRU-YYZ. It has a 10 hr layover in GRU, in order for the return flight to connect with NRT. ACs upcoming YUL-GRU-YUL has a quick turnaround in Brazil, and therefore doesn't connect with NRT on the return. Not ideal, but it's due to lack of long haul frames at AC.
us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
 
ac33e
Posts: 83
Joined: Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:14 pm

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:23 pm

Thenoflyzone wrote:
AirNovaBAe146 wrote:
if WS is going to cross the Pacific my guess would be Australia.



Highly doubt that. Yields to Australia are under pressure, same as to Asia. With all the recent additions by AC, QF and the US3, there is a lot of capacity to be absorbed between North America and Australia. Same thing with New Zealand, now that AC will launch AKL. Last thing you will see is WS launching a destination where they are the 3rd airline on the route. (Look at YYC-DUB and YYC-CDG. No direct competitor on both routes)

YYC-NRT or YYC-ICN are the most likey Asian routes for WS. They would at least be the only carrier on YYC-ICN, and the only year round carrier on YYC-NRT, which would drive up yields.

Speedalive wrote:
With the next batch, and if the economy is still strong, I could see them try Asia and South America, but I think they should launch them in tandem in an effort to be a player in the Asia to South America market (eg: YVR-NRT and YVR-GRU).


On top that, I would like to emphasize WS' likely future emphasis on "hub-to-hub" routes. Given their upcoming JV with DL, they will most likely try to leverage other Skyteam hubs for connecting traffic. Those may very likely be ICN, which DL has been leveraging more and more in contrast to NRT and also PVG with CZ/MU and likely even the new Beijing Daxing airport.
 
Speedalive
Topic Author
Posts: 165
Joined: Sun Jan 17, 2016 7:09 pm

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:36 pm

Thenoflyzone wrote:
If you wan to time a daily YVR-GRU-YVR to connect with a daily YVR-NRT-YVR, you would need at least 3 frames to operate both routes. The plane would need to sit in GRU for 12 hours (or so) in order for the return flight to connect with YVR-NRT. That doesn't make much financial sense, at least not with only 10 787s on order. Maybe once they have their 10 frames, and they exercice their 10 options, will you see South American service.

To be clear, by next batch I was referring to the 10 options. On second thought though, I think they’ll most likely stick to strengthening Europe and testing the waters in Asia with their initial 20 aircraft, especially given how resource intensive it would be to make that work (if they intend to serve SA, im guessing it will be from YYZ). A lot of people seem to think it would be a good idea to connect Asia traffic to South America through YVR, but at the same time, AC doesn’t so maybe the market isn’t as big as it’s made out to be. I’m unsure if AC even specifically targets the Asia-SA market in general. There’s a 7 hour connection in YYZ between AC2 and AC90, so I highly doubt they get many connections. You’d be better off taking American through LAX or being pampered by the ME3.
 
digitalcloud
Posts: 162
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:03 am

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:05 pm

Speedalive wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
...rotate it with FCO/ATH/EDI/etc..


GLA might be more likely. WestJet already has presence at GLA and Alberta has many historical connections with the west of Scotland and therefore lots of VFR traffic. The last non stop service ended a few years ago after Air Transat dropped the GLA/MAN double drop.
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 1119
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:12 am

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:36 pm

digitalcloud wrote:
Speedalive wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
...rotate it with FCO/ATH/EDI/etc..


GLA might be more likely. WestJet already has presence at GLA and Alberta has many historical connections with the west of Scotland and therefore lots of VFR traffic. The last non stop service ended a few years ago after Air Transat dropped the GLA/MAN double drop.


Their 789s aren't exactly the best suited tools to chase thin VFR markets, they have a ton of seats to fill. I think their focus will be more on the guarantee markets moving forward, ones they know can fill a huge volume of seats and yield high enough to pay for them. Remember, they are seeking extensive global partnerships, beginning with Delta, with AF/KLM next in line, and a good chance of KE coming thereafter. With their lack of long haul experience and small fleet, I think it's more likely they lean on these partners for now until they can start turning profits consistently with the long haul flying, then they can consider either growing the 789 fleet or potentially adding another type like a 788 or 797. There's no apparent rush, AC is slowing their growth to focus on fleet renewal, TS isn't the direct competitor they once may have been, so they can take their time to pick and choose.
 
ac33e
Posts: 83
Joined: Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:14 pm

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:05 pm

WS can't solely focus on leisure J. There is a reason other airlines focused on profitability (ahem, AC) don't send mainline aircraft to GLA/MAN/EDI/LGW. There is no high yielding J demand. Investors will balk at the thought of point-to-point flying with the highest capital cost aircraft, when a 76W would do the job just fine on such routes.
 
Speedalive
Topic Author
Posts: 165
Joined: Sun Jan 17, 2016 7:09 pm

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:35 am

[photoid][/photoid]
digitalcloud wrote:
Speedalive wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
...rotate it with FCO/ATH/EDI/etc..


GLA might be more likely. WestJet already has presence at GLA and Alberta has many historical connections with the west of Scotland and therefore lots of VFR traffic. The last non stop service ended a few years ago after Air Transat dropped the GLA/MAN double drop.

There’s some quoteception going on here lol. Pretty sure I wrote that :lol:

To re-iterate what I was saying, I don’t think YYC-DUB direct will return next year. I think that aircraft will be put on AMS instead given their partnership with AF/KLM. I think DUB is more suited for their 767 with its Rouge-like config. With that said, I could see them putting a 767 on YYZ-DUB next summer to compensate for the loss of YYC-DUB. I believe it could support a daily flight since the market is bigger out of YYZ (+connections), but if not, rotated with another destination. Not sure if GLA fits the bill for a high density 767 though. They’re already sending a 767 to BCN, so I‘m thinking they’d launch another Mediterranean destination like YYZ-FCO/ATH in conjunction with YYZ-DUB.
 
digitalcloud
Posts: 162
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:03 am

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:04 am

Speedalive wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]
digitalcloud wrote:
Speedalive wrote:

Not sure if GLA fits the bill for a high density 767 though.


Works well enough for Rouge.
 
sixtyseven
Posts: 829
Joined: Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:42 am

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:22 pm

digitalcloud wrote:
Speedalive wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]
digitalcloud wrote:
Not sure if GLA fits the bill for a high density 767 though.


Works well enough for Rouge.


High density. Cheap airplane.

Would not have worked with a mainline 767 where one third of the footprint of the airplane is taken up with lie flat pods.

Unless you can fill that 1/3 with high paying fares you’re losing out. And I guarantee GLA is not high yielding, it needs to be pretty much full with 282 at low fares to make money.
Stand-by for new ATIS message......
 
YYZORD
Posts: 496
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Sat Mar 23, 2019 5:24 pm

Would a 787 work for YYC-ICN? WS wanted to do a JV with KE and this could be YYC's main asian route instead of always connecting in YVR or SEA. One stop flights to BKK, SIN, and other places that is not served by YVR or SEA.
 
Speedalive
Topic Author
Posts: 165
Joined: Sun Jan 17, 2016 7:09 pm

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Sun Mar 24, 2019 4:34 am

digitalcloud wrote:
Speedalive wrote:
[photoid][/photoid]
digitalcloud wrote:
Not sure if GLA fits the bill for a high density 767 though.


Works well enough for Rouge.

Sure, but if they have a choice between GLA which is probably served enough as is with 3x Rouge/week, and a hot Mediterranean destination in Italy, Greece, Southern France, where Canadians flock like crazy to, I think it’d be an easy choice.
 
hollywoodcory
Posts: 145
Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:29 am

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Sun May 19, 2019 5:07 pm

WS further updated its winter 787 plans:

YYZ-LGW 1x daily from 23OCT19
YYC-OGG 2x weekly
YYC-LGW Increased to 4x weekly.

That covers 2 of the 3 frames.
 
YYZORD
Posts: 496
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Sun May 19, 2019 6:22 pm

Still want to see if YYC-ICN is viable for WS because right now there needs to be some flights for asia out of YYC especially for WS.
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 1119
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:12 am

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Sun May 19, 2019 6:25 pm

hollywoodcory wrote:
WS further updated its winter 787 plans:

YYZ-LGW 1x daily from 23OCT19
YYC-OGG 2x weekly
YYC-LGW Increased to 4x weekly.

That covers 2 of the 3 frames.


If I were to guess, it'll just be a daily yyc-yyz-yyc for the last frame. Number 4 comes in January, I'd guess it'll still k to transcon until the summer.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2809
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon May 20, 2019 3:57 am

YYZORD wrote:
Still want to see if YYC-ICN is viable for WS because right now there needs to be some flights for asia out of YYC especially for WS.


YYC already has 2 routes to Asia. What other city in the Americas with under 1.5 million people can say that?
 
x1234
Posts: 875
Joined: Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:50 pm

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon May 20, 2019 4:42 am

Further UK/EU expansion is good. For East Asia they aren't going to get a yield premium unless they expand into HND/NRT or ICN. China is a bloodbath with the amount of CN carriers @ YVR. There aren't that many Latin/South Americans in Canada anyways relative to Asia and the South America to Asia market is controlled by the ME3/EU carriers and SAA/CX via JNB anyways (flying east is faster from GRU, west for EZE/SCL but then you can connect in LAX/AKL/SYD). Or be like AA and send it to leisure markets from ORD/DFW to CUN. I'd say expansion in Europe should be first on their mind.
 
Whiteguy
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 6:11 am

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon May 20, 2019 5:48 am

hollywoodcory wrote:
WS further updated its winter 787 plans:

YYZ-LGW 1x daily from 23OCT19
YYC-OGG 2x weekly
YYC-LGW Increased to 4x weekly.

That covers 2 of the 3 frames.


This schedule covers all 3 aircraft....

One aircraft daily from YYZ to LGW....the LGW-YYC flights arrive around 1530 and 1420 on Thursday and Saturday, can’t then operate to OGG which leaves at 1100. The next 3 aircraft show Jan thru March.
 
Skyblue39
Posts: 475
Joined: Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:34 am

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:18 pm

Speedalive wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
You aren't alone in questioning their initial routes. The best answer I can come up with is that they are hedging their bets and proving to their home base market that they aren't going to effectively leave them out to dry like AC, who isn't exactly well regarded in Alberta. They have proven their dedication to the market at what is likely going to be a summer of lackluster results, and ultimately, a huge missed revenue opportunity that could have been gained from other hubs. Like I said, this probably wasn't an accident, and I can't say it isn't at least somewhat clever. Alberta is their safety net, it is their loyal base, their insulation. By sacrificing the big market routes out east and west, they just won a lot of loyalty from Albertans, further cementing their position in Calgary. From here, they can branch out, this winter especially, they have opportunity to explore more viable year round options elsewhere to balance the network.

I think their configuration speaks to their position, they are transitioning, and looking to serve Canadian travellers, by offering a product more akin to a hybrid offering, with a lower J class, relatively large PY and Y compared to AC, they will likely fill a slightly different space in the market compared to AC. Moving forward, I would look to skyteam hubs as potential new routes, given their growing partnerships with the alliance. Paris and Amsterdam are likely to feature from other hubs in the future, given their relationships with AF/KLM. Both of those hubs are also seeing really strong growth from Canada (`10% YoY from major airports) and would be easy to fill in all cabins, with year round potential. I'd also look to YYC-NRT as a strong contender, that was always a prestigious route for YYC airport, and I know for a fact their airport authority is keen to see that back to year round operation. The 789 in the WS configuration could be what the route needs vs the AC 763. Remember, even through next summer, they will only have 5 frames at their disposal, making it somewhat challenging to operate more than ~ 5 intercontinental routes. Hawaii is always an option in the off season, it has been growing across the board from Canada lately and has formed quite a competitive market against big red.

My prediction for W19: YYC-LGW 3x weekly, YYZ-LGW daily, YYZ-YYC daily, YYC-HNL 3x weekly
S20: YYC-LGW Daily, YYZ-LGW Daily, YYC-CDG 4x weekly, YYC-DUB 3x weekly, YYZ-YYC Daily, YYZ-AMS 4x weekly, YYC-AMS 3x weekly. That accounts for 5 frames of utilization, and if anything hits the fan, the YYZ-YYC can easily be replaced by 2x narrowbodies and that frame quickly subbed in, operating as a hot spare of sorts on a market that benefits from widebody service when the frame can in any case, and runs between the two hubs that need the frame for internationals. (recall AC has 3x daily widebodies with lie flats on YYZ-YYC, WestJet really has to compete here, that is their gravy route).

I agree.. that's pretty much the only explanation I can think of. They are very much the preferred carrier in Alberta and have an extremely loyal customer base here. If YYC-DUB/CDG are going to work, it will be because of a combination of that loyalty and some healthy connecting traffic, but I definitely think they would've profited more out of YYZ. Though I'm a skeptic of their initial routes' success, I am very much rooting for them.

I like how you put it. They are in a transition phase and it will be interesting to see how it all unfolds. I'm particularly interested in what will come of their domestic product and how the service will be differentiated from their long haul service. At the moment there's a complete disconnect between their long haul product and domestic product and it concerns me a little. Imagine being pampered in J from CDG to YYC and then getting put into domestic Plus with a blocked middle seat (I realize the middle seat will be removed eventually, but this will be the reality for a while). I imagine there will be some confusion as a result. I'm also quite curious about if and how they will replace the 767's - with another type or a no J 789 possibly? It's interesting how the 767's are being configured strictly as Y+/Y and being sent to places like BCN. It's almost like AC Rouge but under the same Westjet banner. Hybrid is definitely the right word to describe Westjet.

For W19, I think they will probably keep YYC-LGW daily on the 787 for W19. It's the flagship route out of YYC and with their customer loyalty out here, I can see them keeping it around. Additionally, if BA pulls out next winter again, it'll help keep the loads steady in the off season. I don't think YYZ long haul will happen until they get the next batch of 87's next year so they can really commit to it. I just think it might further add to customer confusion if one route is split between a non J and J aircraft. I'm thinking YYC-LGW daily, YYZ-YYC daily, and maybe a same aircraft service from YYZ-YYC-alternating between HNL/OGG as well as continuing with their plan to base the 767's in YYZ doing high density Caribbean and LGW. If they do go longhaul from Pearson, I bet it'll be daily LGW along with YYC and just a daily YYC-YYZ.

For S20, I'm anticipating that YYC-DUB won't return. I think it was just a placeholder and they could potentially throw a 767 on YYZ-DUB either daily or rotate it with FCO/ATH/EDI/etc.. or an extra 737 frequency on YYC-YHZ-DUB. Given their AF/KLM relationship, they could switch DUB with AMS and have the plane do YYC-CDG 4x +AMS 3x and YYC-LGW will remain daily. That leaves us with 3 unaccounted aircraft. I could see them launch YYZ-LGW daily and YYZ-CDG 4x and YYZ-AMS 3x and continue with the YYC-YYZ daily as the spare. Alternatively, if they're feeling risky, they could throw the last 87 on YVR-LGW daily or maybe even YYC-NRT which I definitely overlooked. The CAA would probably give them some real good incentives to bring it back year round which would be doable with the 5 aircraft fleet.
[/quote]

Dublin is back for S20 at 3W again and Paris is also back, both from Calgary.
 
Speedalive
Topic Author
Posts: 165
Joined: Sun Jan 17, 2016 7:09 pm

Re: Westjet 787 Post-summer Plans

Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:35 pm

Skyblue39 wrote:
Dublin is back for S20 at 3W again and Paris is also back, both from Calgary.

Looks like it. Glad to be wrong!

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