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LAX772LR
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Air France to MSY imminent?

Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:59 pm

Eagle-eyed poster on the MSY Spotters' Fbook page caught this:

Image

....before anyone automatically writes it off as a typical marketing encounter, keep in mind that this is the same type of log (concerning the same entity) that accurately foreshadowed both the British Airways LHR and Condor FRA service announcements for New Orleans, before they went public.

Anyone know further details?
Last edited by LAX772LR on Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
SeaDoo
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:09 pm

What do you think for frequency and gauge?

Totally speculating as an armchair CEO, maybe 5 weekly on A330 or 3 or 4 weekly on a B787.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:14 pm

SeaDoo wrote:
What do you think for frequency and gauge?

Totally speculating as an armchair CEO, maybe 5 weekly on A330 or 3 or 4 weekly on a B787.

To be honest, I'm just utterly shocked that it (if it happens) would be AF at all.

Their smallest US station is IAD, and they've never shown the slightest interest in developing medium markets.

Always figured if/when MSY got CDG service, it'd be on a DL 763ER in the 25J configuration of full-service, or a DU 788 if LoCo.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
msycajun
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:00 am

The Local Consulate led a big push for AF service to CDG culminating in a public visit from AF officials in 2015. That was before BA announced. My guess is that AF was put on the back burner for a few years to allow BA and DE to develop and talks recently resumed in earnest. Probably targeting a summer/fall announcement for service starting in spring 2020.

As for equipment, could very well be that the AF 789 offers enough of an improvement in economics over DL/AF 767s or 330s. MSY would be quite a bit longer than other midsized markets with CDG service like RDU and IND.
 
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CarlosSi
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:20 am

msycajun wrote:
The Local Consulate led a big push for AF service to CDG culminating in a public visit from AF officials in 2015. That was before BA announced. My guess is that AF was put on the back burner for a few years to allow BA and DE to develop and talks recently resumed in earnest. Probably targeting a summer/fall announcement for service starting in spring 2020.

As for equipment, could very well be that the AF 789 offers enough of an improvement in economics over DL/AF 767s or 330s. MSY would be quite a bit longer than other midsized markets with CDG service like RDU and IND.


Now that I think about it Delta CDG-MSY would have been more likely considering all things stated in this thread, with AF being conservative about secondary markets, unlike BA.

You’d think the 789 would be chosen over the a332? I’m guessing economics trump “abuse” (although 4500 miles is quite a long way).
 
SunsetLimited
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 2:11 am

A332 seems like the best configuration for potential MSY service even though its J cabin is too large to go out full day in, day out. 789 would offer a J cabin that’s a better fit, but IMO it has too many Y seats. Too bad AF got rid of the 763.

It’ll be interesting to see if this leads to something.
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TWA772LR
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 2:49 am

I would've thought Norweguan would've been the first to offer Paris-MSY service.
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Jshank83
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 2:57 am

Still seems like a normal marketing meeting to me based on the wording. Position and Status could mean a lot of things. What did it say before other ones came?
 
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:32 am

Jshank83 wrote:
What did it say before other ones came?

The same things, by the same entity.

Hence the post.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
strangeplanes
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:26 am

Jshank83 wrote:
Still seems like a normal marketing meeting to me based on the wording. Position and Status could mean a lot of things. What did it say before other ones came?

100% of their TATL service came out of normal marketing meetings. That could be why the same entry was seen before BA,etc.
We have no proof this correlation also shows “causation”.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:50 am

GNO INC is the regional economic development group for metro New Orleans. In tandem with the New Orleans Convention and Visitors Bureau, this group was the one that sealed the deal for CM, DE, and BA flights by offering incentives. If they are at a point where a meeting was needed with the airport director to discuss the airline, that bodes well in my opinion.

Here are the slides from the 2019 annual luncheon. Nice to see BA and DL as gold sponsors.

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image

As far the director's credit card reports, they have been a great source for potential service.

1/16/15...director meets with one of the deputy mayor's to discuss the London flight
http://www.flymsy.com/Files/CrossReference/1A/2015CombinedCC.pdf

One year later...well before BA service was announced
1/13/16...introduction of BA team to the Mayor

A few months later
5/14/16...meeting in Mayor's office regarding BA
5/20/16...another meeting in Mayor's office regarding international flights (DE and BA). Director had attended Routes Europe conference the month before.
6/8/16...DE announces MSY service
10/20/16...BA announces MSY service.

http://www.flymsy.com/Files/CrossReference/1A/DirectorsExpenseReport-CY2016.pdf

There were similar things posted regarding CM before they announced, but those reports aren't available on the airport website any longer.

At this point, I would say the service hinges on how much incentive money is being offered by GNO INC and the NOCVB. My guess is discussions are probably closer to the initial post in early 2015, so if all goes well maybe there will be an announcement in 2020.
 
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:40 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
GNO INC . . . the New Orleans Convention and Visitors Bureau

Didn't one of them recently get renamed? Was just thinking about that.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
msycajun
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:53 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
NolaMD88fan wrote:
GNO INC . . . the New Orleans Convention and Visitors Bureau

Didn't one of them recently get renamed? Was just thinking about that.

I think it's now "New Orleans & Co."

I'm not surprised that Paris is a priority for a number of business leaders, however it would be interesting to know if they are pursuing because it is a priority over other potential international service (MEX, SAP, YUL, YYC, etc) or do they have indications that AF is already interested in the route and just needs to work out contracts and aircraft. Skyteam could certainly stand to up their game at MSY.

Looking at what happened in PIT, it seems odd to pursue more European service so soon when I think there could still be a lot of benefit to adding more North America routes. And that's coming from me, someone who wants CDG a lot more that LHR or FRA service.
 
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 7:28 am

msycajun wrote:
other potential international service (MEX, SAP, YUL, YYC, etc)

This airport's always been wishy-washy with MEX, so I understand the hesitation there...

...but very surprised that SAP hasn't returned since the demise of Choice Aire, and somewhat surprised that even weekly or seasonal YUL has yet to be tried.


msycajun wrote:
Looking at what happened in PIT, it seems odd to pursue more European service so soon when I think there could still be a lot of benefit to adding more North America routes. And that's coming from me, someone who wants CDG a lot more that LHR or FRA service.

Too have always wanted CDG at MSY more than any other route, and thrilled that it may well happen.

If we do have to give one up, wouldn't really be saddened to drop DE in favor of [email protected]: much bigger network, with alliance benefits to boot.
Hopefully though, all three can be maintained: two yearround and one summer-seasonal 2xWeekly isn't asking much, especially in what will be the 4th year of TATL service.

PIT can serve as an admonition, yes; but also keep in mind that MSY is a larger overall market, larger TATL market, and much larger tourist draw than PIT; so it definitely has a better chance. Just hope the business traffic is strong enough in tandem with the aforementioned parameters.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 7:46 am

I can guarantee that MEX, YUL, YYC, etc. are all being pursued by the route development team. Those routes typically don't involve incentives from the business community like overseas flights do. More often than not, the airport offers to waive landing fees, but not much else for transborder services to Mexico and Canada.

I still think NK is our best bet for future service on the SAP route, and it's more a matter of when and not if.

Now back to the topic at hand, the regional economic development group and the airport appear to be in discussions with AF. I guess that consular visit a few years back may actually pay some dividends if the incentive package is generous enough.
 
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 8:17 am

NolaMD88fan wrote:
MEX, YUL, YYC, etc. are all being pursued by the route development team.

We've seen the docs for MEX, but anything tangible to show similar for YUL and (especially) YYC?

I know there's some energy interests in the latter, but are the pax really there?
I'm also guessing that it'd have to be WS, considering that AC doesn't do the US southeast from western/central Canada.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
goldorak
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:36 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
SeaDoo wrote:
Their smallest US station is IAD, and they've never shown the slightest interest in developing medium markets.

IAD is AF smallestUS station ??? :eyepopping:
Not really. IAD sees 1 to 3 daily flights, including A380, has P service and is one of their most profitable US route (to not say the most). ORD, SEA, IAH, DTW, MSP, soon DFW etc are “smaller” than IAD for AF.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:51 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
NolaMD88fan wrote:
MEX, YUL, YYC, etc. are all being pursued by the route development team.

We've seen the docs for MEX, but anything tangible to show similar for YUL and (especially) YYC?

I know there's some energy interests in the latter, but are the pax really there?
I'm also guessing that it'd have to be WS, considering that AC doesn't do the US southeast from western/central Canada.


I see the case for WS at MSY as pretty similar to the case at BNA, where they seem to have carved out a successful - albeit limited in size - niche. YYC-MSY probably doesn’t have quite as strong a southbound tourism component as YYC-BNA (Canadians love country music) but the business ties to MSY are stronger and there’s northbound tourism to consider too.

AC has expanded YUL transborder lately (BWI, PIT, RDU), and most of the adds have stuck. MSY seems sensible for another round of expansion there too, though distance might be somewhat of a barrier.

To your point, though, neither YYC nor YUL likely requires a lot of development effort; they would be more continuations of the carriers’ extant strategies.
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:46 pm

MSY sounds like the perfect place for a 763 to CDG.
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DTWLAX
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 5:19 pm

goldorak wrote:
ORD, SEA, IAH, DTW, MSP, soon DFW etc are “smaller” than IAD for AF.

DTW is not small for AF. They may operate just one daily flight but don't forget it is a DL hub and considering the revenue sharing JV between AF/DL/KL and all the daily flights across the Atlantic from DTW, it is pretty big for AF.
 
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 5:38 pm

DTWLAX wrote:
goldorak wrote:
ORD, SEA, IAH, DTW, MSP, soon DFW etc are “smaller” than IAD for AF.

DTW is not small for AF. They may operate just one daily flight but don't forget it is a DL hub and considering the revenue sharing JV between AF/DL/KL and all the daily flights across the Atlantic from DTW, it is pretty big for AF.


??? What he posted was entirely accurate. IAD is indeed a bigger market for AF than DTW.

Jeremy
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 7:23 pm

goldorak wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Their smallest US station is IAD, and they've never shown the slightest interest in developing medium markets.

IAD is AF smallestUS station ??? :eyepopping:
Not really. IAD sees 1 to 3 daily flights, including A380, has P service and is one of their most profitable US route (to not say the most). ORD, SEA, IAH, DTW, MSP, soon DFW etc are “smaller” than IAD for AF.

Perhaps it wasn't written using the best diction, but the context of the sentence should tell you what it meant to convey:
IAD is the smallest airport that they serve in terms of individual airport's pax throughput, not their specific gauge/frequency to IAD is smaller than others. And even then, it's not the greatest example as it's a large market with a small-throughput airport. But the point remains: AF has never shown interest in developing medium throughput airfields; DL tends to do that on behalf of SkyTeam.

So it's surprising that AF would be the one that MSY is courting, as opposed to DL.
Great to see, especially if their efforts meet with success (far more exciting IMO to have a foreign flag), but we'll have to see.
Last edited by LAX772LR on Sat Mar 09, 2019 7:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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LH658
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 7:32 pm

IAD gets the A380, IAH is a large station, not based on flights. It just once daily, but use to be 2 daily on certain days during the sky team days, though IAH has cargo flights, plus a separate KLM lounge, and a separate lounge for AF, also one of AF oldest stations.
 
cokepopper
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 8:15 pm

I’m curious, if AF were to operate this flight, wouldn’t this expand the already out of compliance scope clause agreement with the Delta pilots?
 
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 09, 2019 8:51 pm

cokepopper wrote:
I’m curious, if AF were to operate this flight, wouldn’t this expand the already out of compliance scope clause agreement with the Delta pilots?

If that's indeed the case, couldn't it be readily addressed by ceding other markets/capacity to DL?

I mean, it'd be rather stupid for the two to handicap each other so much with static clauses that they can't expand to ripe markets who are actively courting them; especially in light of BA/Oneworld's aggressive (and thus far: wildly successful) expansion in to smaller N.American markets.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:32 am

Only pic I know of, of AF at MSY.

Any others?

Image
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 6:31 am

Recent tweet by a member of the French-American Chamber of Commerce, giving credence to AF/DL looking at nonstop CDG-MSY

https://twitter.com/FrenchSTATnola/stat ... 5334964224

Statement comes as a response to the airport's anniversary statement for BA's LHR-MSY.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
flyguy89
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:40 am

I just can't see it. I mean, anything is possible especially if the airport writes a big enough check, but AF has only even just barely gotten back in the Chicago market. Hard to imagine them going into a much smaller market with head-to-head TATL competition, particularly in AF's ill financial health. Additionally, while load factor isn't everything, the numbers I've seen for MSY-LHR haven't been particularly impressive, so doesn't seem like the market is bursting with demand.
 
77H
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:10 am

I’ve only been to New Orleans once but it seemed like the region has a lot of ties to France (and I’m not just talking about the French Quarter). Are these purely historical ties and thus yields little in the way of demand be it business or VFR or is it that demand has always been captured via a connecting point ?

If any of the above is the case? What might be prompting the possibility of nonstop service ?

77H
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samuelx88
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:31 pm

And yet, AF doesn't even fly to the second largest French speaking city of North America.
 
b747400erf
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:00 am

Is there a big market to be chasing for AF to join BA in competing for passengers to New Orleans? This could have been tried as an LCC Level route.
 
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CarlosSi
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:02 am

Who knows if this would even be considered were it not for Delta’s partnership with Air France. MSY-CDG doesn’t seem so crazy if you think of the route as existing to compete with BA (and DE), but with some AF paint instead of DL. I don’t know what the O&D in relation to MSY-LHR.
 
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:42 am

flyguy89 wrote:
if the airport writes a big enough check

The airport isn't writing anyone a cheque; all it's going to do is waive fees for a year or two


flyguy89 wrote:
but AF has only even just barely gotten back in the Chicago market.

That doesn't mean much of anything in this regard. Yes, CHI is a far larger market, just as it has farrrrr more competition, both nonstop and 1stop via both Stateside and Euroside hubs.

Apples and oranges.


flyguy89 wrote:
Additionally, while load factor isn't everything, the numbers I've seen for MSY-LHR haven't been particularly impressive,

But far more noteworthy, is that you also don't know what the financials on those numbers look like.


flyguy89 wrote:
so doesn't seem like the market is bursting with demand.

If that were the case, then someone would've already been on it.
Doesn't mean it's not of sufficient demand to begin, stimulate, grow, and sustain though.



77H wrote:
What might be prompting the possibility of nonstop service ?

Gonna say that if such a service starts-- it's because DL is seeing AA/BA erode its dominance in what's long been a major Southern feeder city for DL's ops.

As much was stated in the tweet at the Chamber of Commerce meeting.

AA just recently (this quarter) surpassed DL as the largest (by pax) global carrier at MSY, a position DL has held for nearly half a century. And while being second in a 13million pax market is certainly not the most significant occurrence in DL's universe; it may signal a worrying trend to them that AA/BA/OneWorld can encroach on their non-Florida feed cities in the South-- something that AA is now better equipped to do, seeing as it has both MIA and now CLT as well.

Even if current talks are with AF, I wouldn't be surprised at all if (assuming the service is launched) it's on a 25J seat DL 763ER.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
AlexBrewster03
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 3:45 am

With the strong French culture in New Orleans, Ive always wondered why there wasn’t a flight to Paris. After London, Paris seems like the next best TATL route, so i do hope this route is launched
 
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 4:21 am

New Orleans has a healthy, albeit small oil and gas sector, but Houston is a stones throw away by air and AF sends their smallest widebody in the winter and fills a 77W with VFR in the back during the summer even with a contract for one of the worlds largest oil companies between their 2 HQs on a monopoly route. Still cant send a 77W year round, and as others have said theyre just jumping in to Chicago, an even larger market than Houston.

Im afraid cultural ties aren't gonna cut it unless the Cajuns want to see the Eiffel Tower and Emanuel Macron wants to do Mardi Gras.
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jbs2886
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 5:00 am

TWA772LR wrote:
New Orleans has a healthy, albeit small oil and gas sector, but Houston is a stones throw away by air and AF sends their smallest widebody in the winter and fills a 77W with VFR in the back during the summer even with a contract for one of the worlds largest oil companies between their 2 HQs on a monopoly route. Still cant send a 77W year round, and as others have said theyre just jumping in to Chicago, an even larger market than Houston.

Im afraid cultural ties aren't gonna cut it unless the Cajuns want to see the Eiffel Tower and Emanuel Macron wants to do Mardi Gras.


Things just are not that simple. DL is pretty weak in both of your cited markets - something that is not the case in MSY. Moreover, there is substantial European and CDG, specifically, competition. Those two factors alone undercut your analogies.

At most it’ll be a few times a week on probably an A332.
 
Atlwarrior
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 5:44 am

I believe a seasonal route like BA's Charleston to Heathrow route would work for Air France.
 
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 6:26 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
New Orleans has a healthy, albeit small oil and gas sector, but Houston is a stones throw away by air and AF sends their smallest widebody in the winter and fills a 77W with VFR in the back during the summer even with a contract for one of the worlds largest oil companies between their 2 HQs on a monopoly route. Still cant send a 77W year round, and as others have said theyre just jumping in to Chicago, an even larger market than Houston.

Im afraid cultural ties aren't gonna cut it unless the Cajuns want to see the Eiffel Tower and Emanuel Macron wants to do Mardi Gras.


Things just are not that simple. DL is pretty weak in both of your cited markets - something that is not the case in MSY. Moreover, there is substantial European and CDG, specifically, competition. Those two factors alone undercut your analogies.

At most it’ll be a few times a week on probably an A332.



If you are trying to tell TWA772LR that his analogy is incorrect concerning Houston, I think you are mistaken. IAH has service to LHR/AMS/CDG/FRA/MUC. That's nice, but it's not substantial. He is correct, that AF has trouble filling their planes out of Houston during the slower months of the year, and operates their smallest widebody on the route. CDG is a weak enough market from IAH that UA dropped nonstop service several years ago, leaving AF as the only nonstop option. AF's main strengths for the Houston market are the large international oil company with offices in Houston that shuttles workers to the world HQ, along with all their suppliers, and to a much lesser extent L'Air Liquide and Societe General providing J class customers. Then, AF has a significant West African network that energy workers use to access those markets, and VFR for Africans living in Houston. New Orleans has mostly back office operations for energy companies at this time. They also have lots of offshore supply companies that really don't need to send employees to Europe very often. New Orleans is also the poorest city in the top 50 US metros, so their O/D traffic for Europe isn't up there compared to other, wealthier cities.
https://www.labudget.org/2018/09/new-or ... -s-metros/

Further, DL/AF/KL would not really be connecting passengers onto the outbound MSY-CDG flight. so much of the traffic would of necessity be originating in the MSY cachement area, or be aggregated on the European side to feed tourists from Europe into MSY. I just don't see a strong business case for this route. It reminds me of how BNA and MEM for years have thought they should have nonstop service to NRT, but that simply has not happened.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 6:41 pm

IAHWorldflyer wrote:
IAH has service to LHR/AMS/CDG/FRA/MUC. That's nice, but it's not substantial.


Perhaps not a substantial number of destinations, but there is significant capacity on some of those routes (i.e., 4x LHR today, 2x FRA w/ and A380).
 
TSA125
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:08 pm

How is this market not served at all right now? Given the history of New Orleans and its ties to French culture, I would have thought there would be enough demand to at least fill a 3-5 weekly 757/767 in the past decade.
No not that TSA.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 30, 2019 2:37 am

IAHWorldflyer wrote:
New Orleans has mostly back office operations for energy companies at this time. They also have lots of offshore supply companies that really don't need to send employees to Europe very often. New Orleans is also the poorest city in the top 50 US metros, so their O/D traffic for Europe isn't up there compared to other, wealthier cities.
https://www.labudget.org/2018/09/new-or ... -s-metros/

Further, DL/AF/KL would not really be connecting passengers onto the outbound MSY-CDG flight. so much of the traffic would of necessity be originating in the MSY cachement area, or be aggregated on the European side to feed tourists from Europe into MSY. I just don't see a strong business case for this route.

To be honest, much of this was the same nay-saying that people spoke for the two years between BA first trying a tertiary market (AUS) and their return to MSY... and it of course, proved to be the exact opposite of prescient.

By the airline's own word, the flight has "exceeded all expectations," was grown within months of launching, will go daily (not publicly announced, but confirmed to their ground handler last month) within the year despite the airline's current widebody crunch, etc.

That really shouldn't be much surprise, considering that it was the largest unserved market to Europe in aggregate and the second largest to LHR (after AUS), and also had higher average 1way fares than any other FAA medium-hub city; all straight from the 2013 Sabre numbers posted in the original LHR-MSY announcement thread.

Not all that different for CDG. Lower than LON, but not by much (or at least wasn't in 2014-2015). The DL contribution isn't meant to represent feed, but rather the number of DL elites/premium flyers who could/would/may stay loyal to the franchise as opposed to defecting to AA/BA.

*********************
Lastly, there's one other factor that MSY can utilize which IAH doesn't have:
massive tourism, with the international sector being the highest yielding *and* fastest growing. And before anyone reflexively upturns their nose and scoffs at the very idea: keep in mind that it's not akin to NOLA's typical domestic tourism (i.e. $199 air fare to drink 'til you puke, show your tits, screw someone you don't know, then go home). MSY's international tourism is much higher yield, isn't deterred by high-4 and even 5 digit premium fares, and growing at a phenomenal rate-- for example, the airport nearly tripled the number of FIS-capable gates designed into its new terminal, just in the last two years, in response to growth several times greater than they predicted the airport would experience in the near-term.

I'm aware that AF has been reluctant to use tourism as a cornerstone of its analysis for any given USA route: having failed at MCO and never attempting LAS, but a medium-hub market with only one yearround competitor could be an interesting place for them to reevaluate potential such targets, without the pressing competitor of the likes of the above.

It'll be interesting to see, one way or another.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
clrd4t8koff
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:57 am

Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 30, 2019 8:05 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Lastly, there's one other factor that MSY can utilize which IAH doesn't have:
massive tourism, with the international sector being the highest yielding *and* fastest growing. And before anyone reflexively upturns their nose and scoffs at the very idea: keep in mind that it's not akin to NOLA's typical domestic tourism (i.e. $199 air fare to drink 'til you puke, show your tits, screw someone you don't know, then go home). MSY's international tourism is much higher yield, isn't deterred by high-4 and even 5 digit premium fares, and growing at a phenomenal rate-- for example, the airport nearly tripled the number of FIS-capable gates designed into its new terminal, just in the last two years, in response to growth several times greater than they predicted the airport would experience in the near-term.

I'm aware that AF has been reluctant to use tourism as a cornerstone of its analysis for any given USA route: having failed at MCO and never attempting LAS, but a medium-hub market with only one yearround competitor could be an interesting place for them to reevaluate potential such targets, without the pressing competitor of the likes of the above.

It'll be interesting to see, one way or another.


So this massive high yielding international tourism at MSY that has no problem spending 4 and 5 digit premium fares must be the reason that 2-years after launch BA is still not daily to MSY, operates their smallest widebody plane on the route and doesn’t even have an F cabin. Got it.

AUS was upgauged 2 different times and went daily after launch and even BNA is being upgauged and scoring F service in less than a year-

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bizjou ... e.amp.html

New Orleans needs to up its game and work on the TATL service they have currently. No way AF is launching MSY.
 
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LAX772LR
Topic Author
Posts: 12315
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 30, 2019 9:19 am

clrd4t8koff wrote:
So this massive high yielding international tourism at MSY that has no problem spending 4 and 5 digit premium fares

I said tourism is massive at MSY, didn't say it for that specific segment alone; though int'l tourism is growing at the fastest rate for the top-50 airport with the 3rd fastest growth over the last 10yrs.

http://gnoinc.org/newsflash/9203/



clrd4t8koff wrote:
must be the reason that 2-years after launch BA is still not daily to MSY

Right, because having a transatlantic competitor already in the market (which none of BA's other medium-hub to LHR markets had before being increased/upgauged), plus multiple of its own widebody aircraft shuttered due to unexpected engine issues, didn't factor in huh?

Regardless, despite both of the above, BA's flight goes daily this year; as mentioned, the ground handlers have been already notified of that last month.



clrd4t8koff wrote:
Got it.

Hmm, do you now.


clrd4t8koff wrote:
BNA is being upgauged and scoring F service in less than a year

Won't be alone...

But that said: attention to recent numbers would also show you that BNA's patronage fell off a cliff over the winter, relative to the airline's other two 788 US markets (BWI/MSY).

Station..........Feb. LHR Seats........Feb. Pax........Feb. LF.
MSY................8,560.....................6,265..............73.2%
BNA................6,848.....................4,091..............59.7%

Station..........YTD (2019) LHR Seats....YTD Pax......YTD LF
MSY..................17,548......................12,585.........71.7%
BNA..................14,124.......................8,750..........62.0%

https://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA ... Gztt0xcfSk

And this is despite similar published/observable fares and buckets.
So a developing BNA is probably not the best comparison to crow about for accomplishment, at this particular stage.


clrd4t8koff wrote:
No way AF is launching MSY.

Ah yes, because you said so.
Well, I guess that settles the whole ordeal. :lol:
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
clrd4t8koff
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:57 am

Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 30, 2019 12:26 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
So this massive high yielding international tourism at MSY that has no problem spending 4 and 5 digit premium fares

I said tourism is massive at MSY, didn't say it for that specific segment alone; though int'l tourism is growing at the fastest rate for the top-50 airport with the 3rd fastest growth over the last 10yrs.

http://gnoinc.org/newsflash/9203/



clrd4t8koff wrote:
must be the reason that 2-years after launch BA is still not daily to MSY

Right, because having a transatlantic competitor already in the market (which none of BA's other medium-hub to LHR markets had before being increased/upgauged), plus multiple of its own widebody aircraft shuttered due to unexpected engine issues, didn't factor in huh?

Regardless, despite both of the above, BA's flight goes daily this year; as mentioned, the ground handlers have been already notified of that last month.



clrd4t8koff wrote:
Got it.

Hmm, do you now.


clrd4t8koff wrote:
BNA is being upgauged and scoring F service in less than a year

Won't be alone...

But that said: attention to recent numbers would also show you that BNA's patronage fell off a cliff over the winter, relative to the airline's other two 788 US markets (BWI/MSY).

Station..........Feb. LHR Seats........Feb. Pax........Feb. LF.
MSY................8,560.....................6,265..............73.2%
BNA................6,848.....................4,091..............59.7%

Station..........YTD (2019) LHR Seats....YTD Pax......YTD LF
MSY..................17,548......................12,585.........71.7%
BNA..................14,124.......................8,750..........62.0%

https://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA ... Gztt0xcfSk

And this is despite similar published/observable fares and buckets.
So a developing BNA is probably not the best comparison to crow about for accomplishment, at this particular stage.


clrd4t8koff wrote:
No way AF is launching MSY.

Ah yes, because you said so.
Well, I guess that settles the whole ordeal. :lol:


Yawn :yawn:

Nothing you posted changes the fact that MSY is still served with the smallest BA widebody, isn’t daily, doesn’t have F and BNA is leaping over it with an upgauged plane and increased to daily. BNA hasn’t even had service a full year so their first Feb and YTD numbers slightly lower are a poor thing to compare. You and MSY can have several seats. MSY will not get another major TATL carrier.

If it helps your delusions of grandeur to blame engine issues on why MSY isn’t getting upgauged and increased service have at it. Whatever helps you sleep at night.
 
clrd4t8koff
Posts: 1432
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 30, 2019 12:44 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
So this massive high yielding international tourism at MSY that has no problem spending 4 and 5 digit premium fares

I said tourism is massive at MSY, didn't say it for that specific segment alone; though int'l tourism is growing at the fastest rate for the top-50 airport with the 3rd fastest growth over the last 10yrs.

http://gnoinc.org/newsflash/9203/


Nowhere in that link does that say the growth displayed is specifically for international traffic. A medium airport like MSY adding a few domestic flights on carriers like F9, WN and NK are going to give it larger % numbers for growth. :scratchchin:
 
SunsetLimited
Posts: 841
Joined: Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:20 pm

Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 30, 2019 1:18 pm

MSY is doing just fine. Record passenger numbers and growing. And it's doing fine for BA.

Even though the route is taking longer to mature compared to AUS (AUS numbers are just off the charts, while BNA as expected would be busier in the summer, while MSY is busier in the winter) So what? I'm happy for all three cities. The New Orleans region didn't have nonstop service to Europe, before BA resumed, since 1982. BA has been here for just over two years now. It looks promising that the flight will be going daily. The flight has been showing growth year over year, and over the summer months both BA and DE have been able to co-exist.

I think BA will go daily before a flight to CDG is announced, but I also don't think the idea is as far fetched as some would believe. Regardless, it's an exciting time aviation wise down here.
Spread hope like fire.
 
dragonflyer
Posts: 43
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2007 12:30 am

Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 30, 2019 4:04 pm

I'm still rooting for Air France to launch service to MSY from Paris! I will definitely book a seat on the first flight! Agree that SkyTeam will eventually have to respond or lose customers to competitors. I'm very excited about the new terminal opening up, but I wish it was a different day than May 15th. That's the same exact day as the TWA Hotel at JFK and I've already booked a room. :-/ Hopefully we'll hear something sooner rather than later about Air France & MSY. For the record, I'd much prefer AF vs. a Delta flight, even though I think Delta has a good product.
We earn our wings every day...Comments/opinions are my own and do not reflect my employer.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 30, 2019 4:19 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
IAHWorldflyer wrote:
New Orleans has mostly back office operations for energy companies at this time. They also have lots of offshore supply companies that really don't need to send employees to Europe very often. New Orleans is also the poorest city in the top 50 US metros, so their O/D traffic for Europe isn't up there compared to other, wealthier cities.
https://www.labudget.org/2018/09/new-or ... -s-metros/

Further, DL/AF/KL would not really be connecting passengers onto the outbound MSY-CDG flight. so much of the traffic would of necessity be originating in the MSY cachement area, or be aggregated on the European side to feed tourists from Europe into MSY. I just don't see a strong business case for this route.

To be honest, much of this was the same nay-saying that people spoke for the two years between BA first trying a tertiary market (AUS) and their return to MSY... and it of course, proved to be the exact opposite of prescient.

By the airline's own word, the flight has "exceeded all expectations," was grown within months of launching, will go daily (not publicly announced, but confirmed to their ground handler last month) within the year despite the airline's current widebody crunch, etc.

That really shouldn't be much surprise, considering that it was the largest unserved market to Europe in aggregate and the second largest to LHR (after AUS), and also had higher average 1way fares than any other FAA medium-hub city; all straight from the 2013 Sabre numbers posted in the original LHR-MSY announcement thread.

Not all that different for CDG. Lower than LON, but not by much (or at least wasn't in 2014-2015). The DL contribution isn't meant to represent feed, but rather the number of DL elites/premium flyers who could/would/may stay loyal to the franchise as opposed to defecting to AA/BA.

*********************
Lastly, there's one other factor that MSY can utilize which IAH doesn't have:
massive tourism, with the international sector being the highest yielding *and* fastest growing. And before anyone reflexively upturns their nose and scoffs at the very idea: keep in mind that it's not akin to NOLA's typical domestic tourism (i.e. $199 air fare to drink 'til you puke, show your tits, screw someone you don't know, then go home). MSY's international tourism is much higher yield, isn't deterred by high-4 and even 5 digit premium fares, and growing at a phenomenal rate-- for example, the airport nearly tripled the number of FIS-capable gates designed into its new terminal, just in the last two years, in response to growth several times greater than they predicted the airport would experience in the near-term.

I'm aware that AF has been reluctant to use tourism as a cornerstone of its analysis for any given USA route: having failed at MCO and never attempting LAS, but a medium-hub market with only one yearround competitor could be an interesting place for them to reevaluate potential such targets, without the pressing competitor of the likes of the above.

It'll be interesting to see, one way or another.

Austin was and still is booming economically in an economically booming state and is also a popular business as well as tourism destination and can arguably be a gateway for San Antonio and Waco as well. Plus London is the largest air travel market on the planet, coupled with BAs extensive network (not to say AF doesn't have an extensive network, the Paris market just isn't as big as London's, and BA is way bigger in India) a booming market to the worlds largest market makes sense, whereas New Orleans is still living in Katrina's shadow.

I personally don't see daily, year-round service on MSY-CDG on AF. Year round service will either be less than daily Norwegian on a 788, or AF on their smallest widebody with the smallest premium cabin, and most likely seasonal. FIS gates is just smart planning, and New Orleans is a good sized city and market in its own right, but to serve up some food for thought, Corpus Christi has an FIS gate also, as well as a few other US airports without international service.

I can see MSY having service to Paris in the mid 2020s, but not sooner, although I'd love to eat those words. I love seeing smaller US markets gain international service.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
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LAX772LR
Topic Author
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Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 30, 2019 10:57 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
Yawn :yawn:

Well, that's the most substantively relevant thing that's come out of your mouth thus far. :razz:


clrd4t8koff wrote:
Nothing you posted changes the fact that MSY is still served with the smallest BA widebody, isn’t daily, doesn’t have F

Here's something even more noteworthy:
None of that has also any bearing on what AF/DL does or does not do.



clrd4t8koff wrote:
their first Feb and YTD numbers slightly lower are a poor thing to compare.

Their numbers in general are a poor thing to compare; as previously said.


clrd4t8koff wrote:
MSY can have several seats.

They do... more than BNA in fact. ;)


clrd4t8koff wrote:
MSY will not get another major TATL carrier.

Would ask to borrow your crystal ball, but it doesn't seem to function all that presciently.


clrd4t8koff wrote:
If it helps your delusions of grandeur

Not that I give much credence to your attention to detail: but um, I don't have any skin in what becomes of MSY's international market.


TWA772LR wrote:
whereas New Orleans is still living in Katrina's shadow.

That's a false statement in regard to anything aviation related


TWA772LR wrote:
I personally don't see daily, year-round service on MSY-CDG on AF.

Not sure anyone else does either, as a preliminary launch. But no one here's actually claimed that as even an initial objective.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2112
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

Sat Mar 30, 2019 11:37 pm

One thing MSY threads often show me is how many people actually want MSY to fail, or at least not be successful. So many ignorant comments without any factual basis, more than usual. Don’t understand what the issue is for these people.

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